Top is in

[Buffaloski Boris]

Have to say it is tempting to try and time the bottom though. I fell for it this week--$5k in on Monday, 3K in on Tues, $1.5K in on Wed and $1K in today haha. In retrospect should have been the exact opposite.

You'll cut yourself trying to catch that falling knife.

Are we officially in a correction now? I haven't had time to do the math.

Yeah, we're in a correction. S+P is under 3000, it's high close was somewhere around 3386.  So lessee.  Correction is 10% or 3047. Bear is 20% or 2708. Also, largest one day drop in the Dow.  At least till the next one.   

[wienerdog]

Is the options guy kicking himself in the butt yet since Top was in?

You talking about me with the March $325 puts I was holding?  My butt is sore from all the kicking.

This thread is getting not as funny as we continue to drop.   It will be interesting to see how chipper we are when we are dusting off the DOW 20,000 hats again.

Drops are fun.  It lets you know if you investment policy is correct.  ;>) I still couldn't figure out how those options worked.  If you sold today how much was it worth?

This is only week one folks.  If this is a real recession (and I'm beginning to think it will be), this is going to drag on for months...

Those options are beginning to look like a winning lottery ticket that got destroyed in the wash machine...  bought for $3.30 and now worth $22.50+.  Multiply that gain by 100(shares per contract) x 100 (contracts)...  $190,000+

Sorry Roland.... but where are we at now ?

Edit: Approaching $275K?

No way!  So you are saying if Roland held on and cashed out today he would have $275k on a $330 bet?

[Alternatepriorities]

Yeah, we're in a correction. S+P is under 3000, it's high close was somewhere around 3386.  So lessee.  Correction is 10% or 3047. Bear is 20% or 2708.

I hope traders will at least have the decency to break 2708 if we go anywhere close so that the talking heads will have to stop calling it "the longest bull in history". None of last times 19.5%! Bear or Bust!

[Alternatepriorities]

Is the options guy kicking himself in the butt yet since Top was in?

You talking about me with the March $325 puts I was holding?  My butt is sore from all the kicking.

This thread is getting not as funny as we continue to drop.   It will be interesting to see how chipper we are when we are dusting off the DOW 20,000 hats again.

Drops are fun.  It lets you know if you investment policy is correct.  ;>) I still couldn't figure out how those options worked.  If you sold today how much was it worth?

This is only week one folks.  If this is a real recession (and I'm beginning to think it will be), this is going to drag on for months...

Those options are beginning to look like a winning lottery ticket that got destroyed in the wash machine...  bought for $3.30 and now worth $22.50+.  Multiply that gain by 100(shares per contract) x 100 (contracts)...  $190,000+

Sorry Roland.... but where are we at now ?

Edit: Approaching $275K?

No way!  So you are saying if Roland held on and cashed out today he would have $275k on a $330 bet?

I recall it being a 33k bet? Still one heck of a return IF you time the top just right... And as we all know, only the great thorstach can do that.

[Monocle Money Mouth]

Have to say it is tempting to try and time the bottom though. I fell for it this week--$5k in on Monday, 3K in on Tues, $1.5K in on Wed and $1K in today haha. In retrospect should have been the exact opposite.

You'll cut yourself trying to catch that falling knife.

Are we officially in a correction now? I haven't had time to do the math.

Yeah, we're in a correction. S+P is under 3000, it's high close was somewhere around 3386.  So lessee.  Correction is 10% or 3047. Bear is 20% or 2708. Also, largest one day drop in the Dow.  At least till the next one.

2708 or bust! Come on skittish traders! Daddy needs a good discount for next weeks 401(k) contribution and taxable account purchase.

[wienerdog]

Does anyone find it odd CXSE is only down 5% over the past 5 days?

[Buffaloski Boris]

2708 or bust! Come on skittish traders! Daddy needs a good discount for next weeks 401(k) contribution and taxable account purchase.

Oh yeah.  To paraphrase Warren Buffett, he was an undersexed man in a harem. 

[Brother Esau]

Sky is falling! I know it because it just got dark outside.

[dragoncar]

Where is the Great Thorstache??!!

Oh mighty one, who predicted the top just four weeks ago (close enough for horse shoes, hand granades and the stock market)!

Oh seer of the markets!  Your 23rd prediction has been vindicated!

The previous 22 false tops have all been forgotten!

What wisdom have ye to share now??!!

Look to his coming on the first light of the fifth day, at dawn look to the east

[aboatguy]

obviously the top is no longer in. 

[thorstach]

there it is

[Mr Mark]

there it is

the great Oracle has spoken! The Top Is IN!

Can someone workout delta to the first TOP?

Facemask stocks are up.

[Mr Mark]

Oh, and we're all going to die.

I love the GIF Maizeman

[itchyfeet]

there it is

You might be right for the next year or 2

[JAYSLOL]

there it is

Finally!  I was honestly starting to worry you got the virus or something. 

there it is is in. 

[Monerexia]

Have to say it is tempting to try and time the bottom though. I fell for it this week--$5k in on Monday, 3K in on Tues, $1.5K in on Wed and $1K in today haha. In retrospect should have been the exact opposite.

You'll cut yourself trying to catch that falling knife.

Are we officially in a correction now? I haven't had time to do the math.

Ha so true! And of course all that mental energy-okay not too awfully much--and none of this will make a whit of difference in 15 years. Plus um S&P up over 21% for year ending 31 Jan so still some wiggle room.

[vand]

Futures are suggesting another ~3% gap down - because we need some FRIDAY FUN!!

[marty998]

Does anyone find it odd CXSE is only down 5% over the past 5 days?

The Chinese market index? Funny that - I'll bet anyone pushing the sell button on their stocks using their government approved brokerage account is probably going to be hauled away and disappear for a very long time.

They'll also get a very bad social credit score, and then have what ever sell proceeds from the shares confiscated.

Hence their market not falling?

[Alternatepriorities]

Futures are suggesting another ~3% gap down - because we need some FRIDAY FUN!!

But the prophet has spoken? Doesn't that require the market begin it's recovery tomorrow so that the top can once again be in?

[Buffaloski Boris]

Futures are suggesting another ~3% gap down - because we need some FRIDAY FUN!!

Asia down and Europe trending down 3-4%.  CBOE VIX was 39.16 yesterday.  It’s also the last trading day of the month. Looking an awful lot like yesterday.

[UnleashHell]

thorstash has spoken. thank you!!!

[Monocle Money Mouth]

Have to say it is tempting to try and time the bottom though. I fell for it this week--$5k in on Monday, 3K in on Tues, $1.5K in on Wed and $1K in today haha. In retrospect should have been the exact opposite.

You'll cut yourself trying to catch that falling knife.

Are we officially in a correction now? I haven't had time to do the math.

Ha so true! And of course all that mental energy-okay not too awfully much--and none of this will make a whit of difference in 15 years. Plus um S&P up over 21% for year ending 31 Jan so still some wiggle room.

I tried buying dips in my taxable account a couple of years ago and gave up. It’s too stressful. Now I buy a set amount every two weeks on Thursday. I only buy weekly if I have extra money from selling stuff or have received a bonus at work. I just sold some stuff this week so I was able to buy yesterday. I also have a referral bonus and profit sharing coming soon, so I should be able to buy weekly for the next couple of months.

I know it’s usually better to invest a lump sum, but we still don’t know how much further the markets will drop or if yesterday was the worst of it and the recovery will start today. Dollar cost averaging may not be optimal, but I think it’s better than sitting on cash forever waiting for the perfect moment to buy. The perfect moment may pass quickly and I’m a firm believer that perfect is the enemy of the good.

I agree. In the long run, this correction probably won’t mean much. It’s still a good opportunity to buy.

[matchewed]

there it is

I believe there it was...

[wienerdog]

there it is

Wait which one is is?  The April 11th OG post called Top at 2353 for the S&P.    Are you talking about a different Top?  Please specify as I can't remember how many Tops you called now.

[habanero]

Are you kidding me?   As of this moment the Dow is down about 918 points, or 1.63% for the year.   Yawn.

Wake me at 10% down for the year.

Wakie-wakie, Dow down about 11% for the year now. Time to get up. Top fastest down 10% from ATH is in. Top sleep is over.

[wienerdog]

Does anyone find it odd CXSE is only down 5% over the past 5 days?

The Chinese market index? Funny that - I'll bet anyone pushing the sell button on their stocks using their government approved brokerage account is probably going to be hauled away and disappear for a very long time.

They'll also get a very bad social credit score, and then have what ever sell proceeds from the shares confiscated.

Hence their market not falling?

Their tech index is doing even better and the virus as been more of a problem over there longer.  It just seems like it is overblown here.

Chart

[PathtoFIRE]

there it is

Guess bottom is in, now?

[EscapeVelocity2020]

there it is

I believe there it was...

Yeah, not much of an Oracle since we've lost over 10% before he tells us we should've sold at the Top.  I'm going back to tea leaves.

[GuitarStv]

Is bond top in yet?

[JAYSLOL]

there it is

Guess bottom is in, now?

Apparently not!  It looks like the market is developing thorstach resistance, we’ve overused him for minor corrections and now we are paying the price with this new strain of thorstach-resistant market!  We’re all gonna die!

[FIRE 20/20]

there it is

The great thorstach (blessed be thy name) has gifted us with the knowledge that the Tag Team Top is in:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffCEr327W44

[RWD]

BND top is in.

[frugalnacho]

Wait but how do we know the difference between a brown bear market and a grizzly bear market?

One is actually orange.

[nereo]

there it is

We must mediate on these wise words, for the is a great deal of knowledge hidden in these three words.

'There' - is this to mean the markets, or the forum, or our deeper cognative selves?

'it' - one might assume this pronoun refers to the 'Top', as in 'the top is in' - but I'm less convinced.  Could be something much deeper,much more important.

'is'.  Just as it is important to stop and be, sometimes, it just 'is'.  Remember that, my fellow mustachians.

I hereby submit that we reverently refer to this divine message simply as TII (pronounced "teeeeeee.... with a very long eee sound at the end).

Now, where's the sacramental wine?

[vand]

Well those of us who are gutted at missing out from all those gains since 2009 migh get our time again soon, because at this rate the market should be back at those prices by this time next month :-P

[Wintergreen78]

there it is

We must mediate on these wise words, for the is a great deal of knowledge hidden in these three words.

'There' - is this to mean the markets, or the forum, or our deeper cognative selves?

'it' - one might assume this pronoun refers to the 'Top', as in 'the top is in' - but I'm less convinced.  Could be something much deeper,much more important.

'is'.  Just as it is important to stop and be, sometimes, it just 'is'.  Remember that, my fellow mustachians.

I hereby submit that we reverently refer to this divine message simply as TII (pronounced "teeeeeee.... with a very long eee sound at the end).

Now, where's the sacramental wine?

This is pettifoggery, and I for one will not partake. Focus on the top, only the top, and always the top.

[Glenstache]

Whoops. Sorry. The short term trading computers appear to have gotten a little virus causing them to sell sell sell. Anyone tracking what’s happening with gold these days?

[JAYSLOL]

Well those of us who are gutted at missing out from all those gains since 2009 migh get our time again soon, because at this rate the market should be back at those prices by this time next month :-P

I wouldn’t hold your breath.  I’d love to be buying at those prices, but if the market really did drop to 2009 levels by next month I doubt many of us would have jobs to buy cheap shares with. 

[nereo]

This is pettifoggery, and I for one will not partake. Focus on the top, only the top, and always the top.

It might be a bit of tomfollery, or possibly even be a bit of shinanegans, but are you really so hostile towards me as to label it pettifoggery? 
I'm hurt!

[TomTX]

there it is

What? The market is down nearly 15% from the peak and NOW you come back?

[Wintergreen78]

This is pettifoggery, and I for one will not partake. Focus on the top, only the top, and always the top.

It might be a bit of tomfollery, or possibly even be a bit of shinanegans, but are you really so hostile towards me as to label it pettifoggery? 
I'm hurt!

Anyone who distracts us from the top is my enemy.

The important question: is the top a noun or a verb? Is the top a thing that exists in a time and place or is it the action of being?

[TomTX]

Now, where's the sacramental wine?

I think this thread deserves sacramental whiskey.

[TomTX]

The important question: is the top a noun or a verb? Is the top a thing that exists in a time and place or is it the action of being?

Yes! The Top is all things, both a noun and a verb, both raw existence and an action of being!

[vand]

Well those of us who are gutted at missing out from all those gains since 2009 migh get our time again soon, because at this rate the market should be back at those prices by this time next month :-P

I wouldn’t hold your breath.  I’d love to be buying at those prices, but if the market really did drop to 2009 levels by next month I doubt many of us would have jobs to buy cheap shares with.

Well that's always the dilemma of a bear market, isn't it?
Lower prices dont just happen in a vacuum.. they happen because people become forced sellers. It's easy wheel out all those classic quotes about "buying when there's blood in the streets" but what you may not realise is that it is your own blood on the sidewalk.

[TomTX]

there it is

Guess bottom is in, now?

NOOOO!!! I need it to stay down at least through Monday! Front-loaded 457/401k etc.

[dougules]

Whoops. Sorry. The short term trading computers appear to have gotten a little virus causing them to sell sell sell. Anyone tracking what’s happening with gold these days?

From my understanding, gold continues to be an inanimate metallic substance market forces notwithstanding. 

there it is

We must mediate on these wise words, for the is a great deal of knowledge hidden in these three words.

'There' - is this to mean the markets, or the forum, or our deeper cognative selves?

'it' - one might assume this pronoun refers to the 'Top', as in 'the top is in' - but I'm less convinced.  Could be something much deeper,much more important.

'is'.  Just as it is important to stop and be, sometimes, it just 'is'.  Remember that, my fellow mustachians.

I hereby submit that we reverently refer to this divine message simply as TII (pronounced "teeeeeee.... with a very long eee sound at the end).

Now, where's the sacramental wine?

This is pettifoggery, and I for one will not partake. Focus on the top, only the top, and always the top.

I wouldn't ignore this pithy piece of wisdom that has been given to us expressly for the purpose of helping us to comprehend the True Nature of the The Top.

[Chris @ Saturday Financial]

Not only Stonks but stocks seem to be going up too.   Hurray for more tops

I don't think you understand. THE top is in. There are no other tops. This one is it. (2/12/20)

Dang, I was a whole week early in calling THE top, which was 2/19/20.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

I think DJ Khaled really captured the essence of the top is in for me:

Was that actually his song or he was making an appearance to rap about the top?

Oh by the way Top wasn't in as there was another top.  Anyone in for 3400?

Haven't you learned anything from this thread?  Top is in.  We'll never make 3400.  Ever.  The NYSE will just be crumbling abandoned building soon.

@Chris @ Saturday Financial  Actually Dougules is the most prescient at calling the Top.

[nereo]

Now, where's the sacramental wine?

I think this thread deserves sacramental whiskey.

Finally, a religion I can get behind!

[PathtoFIRE]

Now, where's the sacramental wine?

I think this thread deserves sacramental whiskey.

Finally, a religion I can get behind!

T-p is in!