Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 938081 times)

v8rx7guy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4700 on: July 10, 2019, 08:08:35 AM »
S&P 3K !  Top is in.

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4701 on: July 10, 2019, 08:58:13 AM »
But what do I know. I'm just a full time investor up >1,000% the past couple years while the market return is single digits.

1000% over a couple years?  Neato!  Assuming you've got ten dollars invested today, in ten years time you should be upwards of 14 million then.  That's very impressive.  Care to post your current stock positions so we can track your phenomenal stock gainz over time?

RWD

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4702 on: July 10, 2019, 09:03:56 AM »
S&P 3K !  Top is in.
It heard you and ducked back under

Cookie78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4703 on: July 10, 2019, 10:06:09 AM »
S&P 3K !  Top is in.
It heard you and ducked back under

I call that proof of top!

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4704 on: July 10, 2019, 10:36:59 AM »
Top is in!

2,999.99 will be the top

You heard it here first

Top is in

S&P 3K !  Top is in.
It heard you and ducked back under

I was off by 2.99 - I apologize for being so wrong with my prediction. I throw myself at the mercy of the forum. All hail the top, our new overlord.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4705 on: July 10, 2019, 11:04:09 AM »
Top is in!

2,999.99 will be the top

You heard it here first

Top is in

S&P 3K !  Top is in.
It heard you and ducked back under

I was off by 2.99 - I apologize for being so wrong with my prediction. I throw myself at the mercy of the forum. All hail the top, our new overlord.

You missed your chance to play it off by saying you were calling the close and not the intra-day. 

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4706 on: July 10, 2019, 11:11:59 AM »
I know this thread is intended to make fun of people who try to time the market. But in all seriousness stock valuations are RIDICULOUS. About as high as they have ever been historically (1929, 2000 levels). And the global economy has been cycling into slowdown. Europe is in mild recession already. A lot of US recession signals are starting to flip over (nothing strongly determinative yet). There is an elevated risk of recession in the near term. And historically stock markets usually lead recessions, going down substantially in the few months before they officially start. And the official recession determination is made months after the recession starts. Anyway, stocks would need to fall about 65% from here before they got to historical average valuations. And usually the market doesn't stop at historical average when it's correcting back down (i.e. it goes even lower).

So I'm not saying this is the top. But this is an ideal time to make sure you aren't overweight equities. And be prepared to have the market go down 65% or 80% or whatever since that's a realistic possibility by the end of this market cycle (whenever that happens). The corporate sector is crazy leveraged right now. IIRC 13% of firms don't make enough cash flow to fund their debts. The recession could easily get ugly (2008 except corporate debt instead of mortgages). And the governments worldwide have little left in the way of monetary and fiscal policy levers that they can pull. No guarantee, but a real significant risk is ahead.

But what do I know. I'm just a full time investor up >1,000% the past couple years while the market return is single digits.

Be careful.

There's a good chance you're right, but even if you are

a) who knows when and how the dénouement will play out. 

b) other options are just as overvalued. 

c) the top has already been in for 2 years now!  Haven't all the bacon eating bouncing cats taught you that?

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Top is in
« Reply #4707 on: July 10, 2019, 12:44:58 PM »

forummm

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4708 on: July 10, 2019, 02:18:20 PM »
But what do I know. I'm just a full time investor up >1,000% the past couple years while the market return is single digits.

1000% over a couple years?  Neato!  Assuming you've got ten dollars invested today, in ten years time you should be upwards of 14 million then.  That's very impressive.  Care to post your current stock positions so we can track your phenomenal stock gainz over time?

No, I wouldn't want to encourage anyone who doesn't REALLY know what they are doing to do active investing. It's a full time job for very unusual people with very strong stomachs. I have made or lost more than my old annual salary (I retired) in a day dozens of times.

But I'm mostly going to cash/bonds and some high conviction short positions in the next several months. And I could change that plan at any time. But think it's unlikely that I will be long more than a small portion of the portfolio later this year.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2019, 02:30:23 PM by forummm »

forummm

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4709 on: July 10, 2019, 02:28:47 PM »
I have read smart people talk about how accounting methods have changed over time, so P/E today isn’t exactly the same as it was in the past. Can anyone speak to that and what it may mean for what this means for the predictive power of P/E 10?

There are a lot of different metrics to look at besides P/E 10. And there are arguments (as in every bubble) for why "this time is different" for valuations. But there are arguments the other way too, like corporate profits are temporarily artificially high from the corporate tax cuts (they will be competed away and normalize again).

forummm

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4710 on: July 10, 2019, 02:37:05 PM »
It will turn out to be a bubble if it pops. If it doesn't pop, it wasn't a bubble.

OK so we have established that you are lucky, rather than merely skillful?

Thanks to the central banks we have an "everything bubble", regardless of whether it pops or not. It's possible that the markets just stagnate (instead of popping) for 20 years until fundamentals catch up to valuations. But that's not typically how markets work.

There is luck involved with any success. And I used to believe that beating the market was random. Until I learned otherwise. I don't recommend people actively invest though. Too easy to not know what you are doing. And it's hard even if you do.

Maenad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4711 on: July 10, 2019, 03:58:38 PM »
I saw this article this morning and cackled: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/looking-for-the-stock-markets-top-no-one-will-ring-a-bell-to-tell-you-its-arrived-2019-07-10

Little does he know! We have the mighty Thorstach, who will always tell us.


Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4712 on: July 10, 2019, 07:54:53 PM »
One thing I like about the market (in addition to potential money) is that it retroactively assigns a numerical score to help evaluate prognosticator's rightness   :D

I saw this article this morning and cackled: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/looking-for-the-stock-markets-top-no-one-will-ring-a-bell-to-tell-you-its-arrived-2019-07-10
Little does he know! We have the mighty Thorstach, who will always tell us.
Second sentence "There won’t be a grand announcement that a top is in."  Author needs to do more googling of the phrase "top is in" before just going off and writing a sentence like that and presenting it as fact!

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4713 on: July 10, 2019, 09:56:33 PM »
Second sentence "There won’t be a grand announcement that a top is in."  Author needs to do more googling of the phrase "top is in" before just going off and writing a sentence like that and presenting it as fact!



dollabillz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4714 on: July 11, 2019, 07:24:39 AM »
But what do I know. I'm just a full time investor up >1,000% the past couple years while the market return is single digits.

1000% over a couple years?  Neato!  Assuming you've got ten dollars invested today, in ten years time you should be upwards of 14 million then.  That's very impressive.  Care to post your current stock positions so we can track your phenomenal stock gainz over time?

They said >1000% so we could be looking at an even higher number!  Not sure where the concern is coming from...with returns like that they must have the ability/means to make even greater gains as the market tanks? Or at least a paltry 500% return

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4715 on: July 11, 2019, 07:49:45 AM »
But what do I know. I'm just a full time investor up >1,000% the past couple years while the market return is single digits.

1000% over a couple years?  Neato!  Assuming you've got ten dollars invested today, in ten years time you should be upwards of 14 million then.  That's very impressive.  Care to post your current stock positions so we can track your phenomenal stock gainz over time?

They said >1000% so we could be looking at an even higher number!  Not sure where the concern is coming from...with returns like that they must have the ability/means to make even greater gains as the market tanks? Or at least a paltry 500% return

I've already moved 10$ into a bonds/cash position in order to follow forummm's strategy that will guarantee me upwards of 14 million dollars by 2029.  Can't wait to get rich quick!

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4716 on: July 11, 2019, 10:17:36 AM »
A confirmed downtrend from all time highs is anything but noise, fellow. Anyway, there goes support and VXX breakout going into a long weekend.

If you're not going to put your money where your mouth is, at least add your concrete prediction to this thread so we can all laugh at how bad it is. (along with all the others too, including mine, so there won't be any reason to feel bad about being wrong)  And hey, maybe you'll actually be right!  Stranger things have happened.


https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/calling-the-top/


Mine is not a prediction but an analysis based on facts and charts to conclude that we have already seen the top of this bull rally. Posting in that thread would be "cheating" since i've made the call after the fact.

So.....can I buy back in yet?

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4717 on: July 11, 2019, 10:39:34 AM »
But what do I know. I'm just a full time investor up >1,000% the past couple years while the market return is single digits.

1000% over a couple years?  Neato!  Assuming you've got ten dollars invested today, in ten years time you should be upwards of 14 million then.  That's very impressive.  Care to post your current stock positions so we can track your phenomenal stock gainz over time?

No, I wouldn't want to encourage anyone who doesn't REALLY know what they are doing to do active investing. It's a full time job for very unusual people with very strong stomachs. I have made or lost more than my old annual salary (I retired) in a day dozens of times.

But I'm mostly going to cash/bonds and some high conviction short positions in the next several months. And I could change that plan at any time. But think it's unlikely that I will be long more than a small portion of the portfolio later this year.

The worst possible outcome is not a crash in nominal terms, but high inflation like in the 70s.  Cash and bonds (TIPS aside) would be the worst things to have in that case. 

Warren Buffett, one of the few people who have reliably beat the market average, advocates passive investing.  A hedge fund manager was not able to beat index funds after betting $1M that he could.  You can say it's just chance, but it's not rocket science to hold shares of profitable companies and collect the earnings.  If you do want to beat the market average reliably, you will need all the resources, skill, patience, and drive that Warren Buffett has to be able to truly value a given company.  Then you're just working another very intensive job, so what's the point?

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4718 on: July 11, 2019, 11:50:34 AM »


The worst possible outcome is not a crash in nominal terms, but high inflation like in the 70s.  Cash and bonds (TIPS aside) would be the worst things to have in that case. 

Warren Buffett, one of the few people who have reliably beat the market average, advocates passive investing.  A hedge fund manager was not able to beat index funds after betting $1M that he could.  You can say it's just chance, but it's not rocket science to hold shares of profitable companies and collect the earnings.  If you do want to beat the market average reliably, you will need all the resources, skill, patience, and drive that Warren Buffett has to be able to truly value a given company.  Then you're just working another very intensive job, so what's the point?

While you can't reliably beat the market in the very long term (unless you are Buffett), you can beat the crap out of it in the short term as many many people have done.  Anyone in the tech field who got lucky with their company stock options has trounced the market returns.  I know quite a few multi multi millionaires who were only making a $100k base salary.   Someone with a $200k base salary could have purchased the options in those companies with the extra $70k (after taxes) and also become a multi multi milliionaire.  It does seem easier though to be given the options as a part of compensation rather than take a higher compensation from another company and purchase the options yourself, even if the end result could be similar.

Tyson

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4719 on: July 11, 2019, 01:09:06 PM »


The worst possible outcome is not a crash in nominal terms, but high inflation like in the 70s.  Cash and bonds (TIPS aside) would be the worst things to have in that case. 

Warren Buffett, one of the few people who have reliably beat the market average, advocates passive investing.  A hedge fund manager was not able to beat index funds after betting $1M that he could.  You can say it's just chance, but it's not rocket science to hold shares of profitable companies and collect the earnings.  If you do want to beat the market average reliably, you will need all the resources, skill, patience, and drive that Warren Buffett has to be able to truly value a given company.  Then you're just working another very intensive job, so what's the point?

While you can't reliably beat the market in the very long term (unless you are Buffett), you can beat the crap out of it in the short term as many many people have done.  Anyone in the tech field who got lucky with their company stock options has trounced the market returns.  I know quite a few multi multi millionaires who were only making a $100k base salary.   Someone with a $200k base salary could have purchased the options in those companies with the extra $70k (after taxes) and also become a multi multi milliionaire.  It does seem easier though to be given the options as a part of compensation rather than take a higher compensation from another company and purchase the options yourself, even if the end result could be similar.

That's called luck. 

slow hand slow plan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4720 on: July 11, 2019, 02:53:13 PM »
Mr peanut is coming for your tops.....

TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4721 on: July 12, 2019, 08:39:15 AM »

The suggested bet wasn't stock price, it was your claim that TSLA losses for 2Q19 would be over a half billion dollars.

I said "around" half a billion dollars plus or minus accounting shenanigans. The shenanigans could easily be hundreds of millions of dollars. Hard to bet on that when the person signing those financial statements has no concern about violating federal law.
Yep, I was wrong on the "over/above"

The rest is just you making your entire argument meaningless while trying to get out of standing up for your claims.

Profits/losses are done to GAAP standards. Unless someone's convicted (and nobody is even charged, or being publicly investigated) "violating federal law" with the quarterly reporting accounting is just you throwing up chaff.

forummm

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4722 on: July 12, 2019, 12:08:01 PM »
I know this thread is intended to make fun of people who try to time the market. But in all seriousness stock valuations are RIDICULOUS. About as high as they have ever been historically (1929, 2000 levels). And the global economy has been cycling into slowdown. Europe is in mild recession already. A lot of US recession signals are starting to flip over (nothing strongly determinative yet). There is an elevated risk of recession in the near term. And historically stock markets usually lead recessions, going down substantially in the few months before they officially start. And the official recession determination is made months after the recession starts. Anyway, stocks would need to fall about 65% from here before they got to historical average valuations. And usually the market doesn't stop at historical average when it's correcting back down (i.e. it goes even lower).

So I'm not saying this is the top. But this is an ideal time to make sure you aren't overweight equities. And be prepared to have the market go down 65% or 80% or whatever since that's a realistic possibility by the end of this market cycle (whenever that happens). The corporate sector is crazy leveraged right now. IIRC 13% of firms don't make enough cash flow to fund their debts. The recession could easily get ugly (2008 except corporate debt instead of mortgages). And the governments worldwide have little left in the way of monetary and fiscal policy levers that they can pull. No guarantee, but a real significant risk is ahead.

But what do I know. I'm just a full time investor up >1,000% the past couple years while the market return is single digits.

Be careful.

There's a good chance you're right, but even if you are

a) who knows when and how the dénouement will play out. 

b) other options are just as overvalued. 

c) the top has already been in for 2 years now!  Haven't all the bacon eating bouncing cats taught you that?

I didn't tell anyone to exit stocks or change their personal investment theses. Just cautioning that now is a great time to not be overweight stocks. Sometimes people get a little carried away when it feels like the market only goes up.

forummm

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4723 on: July 12, 2019, 12:20:55 PM »
The worst possible outcome is not a crash in nominal terms, but high inflation like in the 70s.  Cash and bonds (TIPS aside) would be the worst things to have in that case. 

Warren Buffett, one of the few people who have reliably beat the market average, advocates passive investing.  A hedge fund manager was not able to beat index funds after betting $1M that he could.  You can say it's just chance, but it's not rocket science to hold shares of profitable companies and collect the earnings.  If you do want to beat the market average reliably, you will need all the resources, skill, patience, and drive that Warren Buffett has to be able to truly value a given company.  Then you're just working another very intensive job, so what's the point?

I think the risks of significant inflation are very high (not right now, but some years ahead). There is just too much debt everywhere and it can't all be paid back. So at some point I think it gets deflated away. Impossible to say how it all plays out. And a high chance of significant pain for everyone involved.

Buffett advocates indexing for people who don't know what they are doing, and notably continues to do active investing for himself and his firm. I agree that it is very difficult to beat the market reliably without a lot of work. It is a full time job. That's why I am scaling back and going to retire again for good. I have more money than I need so I don't need to keep making more.

Also note that it is very hard for hedge fund managers to beat the market because they are dealing with huge amounts of money. When they move money around it moves the market and is hard to keep quiet. And they charge huge fees that eat their alpha away anyway. And true hedge funds aren't trying to beat the market--they are trying to provide more stable returns. And there are too many hedge funds, most of whom are run by people who are just there to take fees and aren't actually good money managers. And hedge funds are hampered by central bank policies that just make everything crazy overvalued. It's very hard to pick stocks in this environment.

forummm

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4724 on: July 12, 2019, 12:32:43 PM »


The worst possible outcome is not a crash in nominal terms, but high inflation like in the 70s.  Cash and bonds (TIPS aside) would be the worst things to have in that case. 

Warren Buffett, one of the few people who have reliably beat the market average, advocates passive investing.  A hedge fund manager was not able to beat index funds after betting $1M that he could.  You can say it's just chance, but it's not rocket science to hold shares of profitable companies and collect the earnings.  If you do want to beat the market average reliably, you will need all the resources, skill, patience, and drive that Warren Buffett has to be able to truly value a given company.  Then you're just working another very intensive job, so what's the point?

While you can't reliably beat the market in the very long term (unless you are Buffett), you can beat the crap out of it in the short term as many many people have done.  Anyone in the tech field who got lucky with their company stock options has trounced the market returns.  I know quite a few multi multi millionaires who were only making a $100k base salary.   Someone with a $200k base salary could have purchased the options in those companies with the extra $70k (after taxes) and also become a multi multi milliionaire.  It does seem easier though to be given the options as a part of compensation rather than take a higher compensation from another company and purchase the options yourself, even if the end result could be similar.

I think you did pretty well too in the past with your IRA.

If you follow a firm very closely and have the discipline and some insight into the field and can understand why a stock is trading where it is and see catalysts ahead that the market is currently ignoring but will very likely be forced to see soon you can do well. It's hard. But one example is a firm that works in an area where I have a graduate degree and I understand the business somewhat and knew that it was ludicrous that it was trading where it was so I went with a sizable position in 2 year call options and the market eventually caught up to me. And I could trade around it as it went up. But you can also make money with other techniques as stocks trade sideways. But this is only for people who really spend the time to make it work. It's a job. And it's often not a fun one.

I think I've taken positions in about 25 stocks in the past few years and did extremely well on one. Very well on 4 others. Made small amounts on most of the rest. I haven't lost anything substantial on anything (even the short positions despite the market generally being unfavorable to shorting anything).

Position sizing is key too. If you have a 10% position and lose it all you can keep going on. And don't use leverage except strategically (the position above was a very high confidence one that I bought calls for).

So it's possible to consistently do well. But only for very unusual people who are very disciplined and put a great deal of time and agony into it.

forummm

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4725 on: July 12, 2019, 12:36:19 PM »

The suggested bet wasn't stock price, it was your claim that TSLA losses for 2Q19 would be over a half billion dollars.

I said "around" half a billion dollars plus or minus accounting shenanigans. The shenanigans could easily be hundreds of millions of dollars. Hard to bet on that when the person signing those financial statements has no concern about violating federal law.
Yep, I was wrong on the "over/above"

The rest is just you making your entire argument meaningless while trying to get out of standing up for your claims.

Profits/losses are done to GAAP standards. Unless someone's convicted (and nobody is even charged, or being publicly investigated) "violating federal law" with the quarterly reporting accounting is just you throwing up chaff.

You obviously don't follow Tesla closely. It's a fraud sandwich. And both Musk and Tesla were charged with fraud (in shockingly quick fashion from the normally lethargic SEC). And Tesla has disclosed that it is under investigation from multiple federal and international agencies.

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4726 on: July 12, 2019, 01:01:28 PM »
Purely personally but I am making sure we can survive live quite well if our total portfolio takes a 50% dump.

As we have that we run a 75/25 portfolio so fingers crossed we should be good..:)

Ok any advances on 3010 on the S&P 500.. is is the top in?

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4727 on: July 12, 2019, 02:55:43 PM »

The suggested bet wasn't stock price, it was your claim that TSLA losses for 2Q19 would be over a half billion dollars.

I said "around" half a billion dollars plus or minus accounting shenanigans. The shenanigans could easily be hundreds of millions of dollars. Hard to bet on that when the person signing those financial statements has no concern about violating federal law.
Yep, I was wrong on the "over/above"

The rest is just you making your entire argument meaningless while trying to get out of standing up for your claims.

Profits/losses are done to GAAP standards. Unless someone's convicted (and nobody is even charged, or being publicly investigated) "violating federal law" with the quarterly reporting accounting is just you throwing up chaff.

You obviously don't follow Tesla closely. It's a fraud sandwich. And both Musk and Tesla were charged with fraud (in shockingly quick fashion from the normally lethargic SEC). And Tesla has disclosed that it is under investigation from multiple federal and international agencies.

Uh, you're referring to the SEC settlement with Musk and Tesla for Musk's stupid "funding secured" tweet, right? It's got nothing to do with profit/loss reporting and you know it. The SEC and DOJ are also looking into early projections around Model 3 production, but there's no indication that will go anywhere. No investigations would be better than a small number of investigations, but that's a relatively benign tally considering how fast the company is pushing things and how much the CEO likes to tweet. Hardly a "fraud sandwich", whatever the hell that is. If you don't think the company's legal risk is priced into it's shares by the millions of investors large and small who obviously weight them differently than you do, then you're just fooling yourself.


solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4728 on: July 12, 2019, 04:34:17 PM »
On a day when the S&P 500 hit a new record high, we have to be talking all seriously about valuations, settlements, and stuff?

Is nothing sacred anymore?

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4729 on: July 12, 2019, 05:17:35 PM »
On a day when the S&P 500 hit a new record high, we have to be talking all seriously about valuations, settlements, and stuff?

Is nothing sacred anymore?

Excellent point. I won't participate in more Tesla talk here. Tesla talk top is in.

markbike528CBX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4730 on: July 12, 2019, 08:34:32 PM »
Today's Top is IN!!!

mies

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4731 on: July 13, 2019, 02:49:00 AM »
On a day when the S&P 500 hit a new record high, we have to be talking all seriously about valuations, settlements, and stuff?

Is nothing sacred anymore?

Seriously. I thought this thread was all about announcing when the top is in and enjoying some schadenfreude at thorstach's expense when the top keeps climbing higher years after the fact.

TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4732 on: July 13, 2019, 06:53:16 AM »

The suggested bet wasn't stock price, it was your claim that TSLA losses for 2Q19 would be over a half billion dollars.

I said "around" half a billion dollars plus or minus accounting shenanigans. The shenanigans could easily be hundreds of millions of dollars. Hard to bet on that when the person signing those financial statements has no concern about violating federal law.
Yep, I was wrong on the "over/above"

The rest is just you making your entire argument meaningless while trying to get out of standing up for your claims.

Profits/losses are done to GAAP standards. Unless someone's convicted (and nobody is even charged, or being publicly investigated) "violating federal law" with the quarterly reporting accounting is just you throwing up chaff.

You obviously don't follow Tesla closely. It's a fraud sandwich. And both Musk and Tesla were charged with fraud (in shockingly quick fashion from the normally lethargic SEC). And Tesla has disclosed that it is under investigation from multiple federal and international agencies.
Cool. Thanks for agreeing with my statement there were no charges related to the quarterly reporting.

Musk shot off his mouth about "funding secured" to go private. So what?

I look forward to seeing how bad your projection of $500M quarterly losses is.

You're arguing you can outsmart the market in this thread. That's kinda cute.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2019, 06:54:47 AM by TomTX »

forummm

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4733 on: July 13, 2019, 09:30:39 AM »

The suggested bet wasn't stock price, it was your claim that TSLA losses for 2Q19 would be over a half billion dollars.

I said "around" half a billion dollars plus or minus accounting shenanigans. The shenanigans could easily be hundreds of millions of dollars. Hard to bet on that when the person signing those financial statements has no concern about violating federal law.
Yep, I was wrong on the "over/above"

The rest is just you making your entire argument meaningless while trying to get out of standing up for your claims.

Profits/losses are done to GAAP standards. Unless someone's convicted (and nobody is even charged, or being publicly investigated) "violating federal law" with the quarterly reporting accounting is just you throwing up chaff.

You obviously don't follow Tesla closely. It's a fraud sandwich. And both Musk and Tesla were charged with fraud (in shockingly quick fashion from the normally lethargic SEC). And Tesla has disclosed that it is under investigation from multiple federal and international agencies.
Cool. Thanks for agreeing with my statement there were no charges related to the quarterly reporting.

Musk shot off his mouth about "funding secured" to go private. So what?

I look forward to seeing how bad your projection of $500M quarterly losses is.

You're arguing you can outsmart the market in this thread. That's kinda cute.

There's never just a little fraud. 'shooting mouth off' sure. Sad that you are excusing the most blatant market manipulation. It was so egregious that SEC was forced to act quickly because the $420 fraud was so public. Otherwise they usually wait literally 3-7 years before bringing charges. DOJ and FTC are also investigating undisclosed topics. My guess is the feds wait until the company implodes on its own and then they ride in to hang the corpse. Elon probably gets off without jail time because there is no justice for rich people.

The "around half billion" could be quasi-legitimately lower if they cut costs a ton. They could change accounting charges related to referral bonuses they curtailed etc. They have been screwing over car owners even more by cutting already insufficient service personnel and refusing to do warranty repairs (like a known issue where the screens turn yellow). But that's also fraud (failing to honor the warranty contract). And of course continues to destroy the brand. But mortgaging the future to buy time is what Elon does. As I said before I won't be surprised with a net loss in the low hundreds of millions. But the number for one highly gamed quarter is not meaningful. The future, with continued massive losses is what will kill the company eventually.

My account returns are pretty cute.

frugledoc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4734 on: July 13, 2019, 02:42:55 PM »
Aww this thread was fun while it lasted. When did it turn into a beat the market/market timing borefest.  You guys know the etiquette - go start your own thread where you post your trades before or as you  action them so we can all bow to your investing superiority. 

ender

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4735 on: July 13, 2019, 03:12:40 PM »
Aww this thread was fun while it lasted. When did it turn into a beat the market/market timing borefest.  You guys know the etiquette - go start your own thread where you post your trades before or as you  action them so we can all bow to your investing superiority.

But THE TOP IS IN how can you be reasonable?

SELL SELL SELL. The TOP IS IN!!!!1 :)

dandarc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4736 on: July 13, 2019, 04:02:19 PM »


aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4737 on: July 13, 2019, 10:42:15 PM »
Aww this thread was fun while it lasted. When did it turn into a beat the market/market timing borefest.  You guys know the etiquette - go start your own thread where you post your trades before or as you  action them so we can all bow to your investing superiority.

We need thorstach to shake us out of these doldrums, but unfortunately the wise visionary only appears after the market has a bit of of a downswing.

Meanwhile, we sit and we wait.





Stache-O-Lantern

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4738 on: July 14, 2019, 03:29:15 PM »
I think it's great to have forummm back.  I don't post much but I usually enjoyed reading his posts in the past.

He stopped posting in August 2016, and only recently started again in June 2019, except for a few posts on Tesla in 2018.  Thorstache started this thread in early 2017, and his last post was in May 2019.  Sol's hypothesis that Thorstache is probably a long-time forum member is a reasonable one.

Conspiracy top is in.

FIRE 20/20

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4739 on: July 14, 2019, 05:30:16 PM »
Aww this thread was fun while it lasted. When did it turn into a beat the market/market timing borefest.  You guys know the etiquette - go start your own thread where you post your trades before or as you  action them so we can all bow to your investing superiority.

Thread ruining top is in (we can all hope). 

Mr Mark

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4740 on: July 15, 2019, 08:44:32 AM »
I just saw a market expert on CNBC warning that there's going to be a big crash, like, soon.

Maybe.

So, top must be in! He said the market is at a record high, exactly like it was just before every other crash. Co-incidence? I think not! It was spooky how obviously correct he was.

I'm immediately going to gold and beanie babies & tulips & bitcoin. 

dandarc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4741 on: July 15, 2019, 10:13:26 AM »
I just saw a market expert on CNBC warning that there's going to be a big crash, like, soon.

Maybe.

So, top must be in! He said the market is at a record high, exactly like it was just before every other crash. Co-incidence? I think not! It was spooky how obviously correct he was.

I'm immediately going to gold and beanie babies & tulips & bitcoin.
Kind of hope he's right. Moved everything to tulip bulbs this morning. Not really - but mortgage refinance (correcting a major financial mistake - we paid off our mortgage in 2016). Should close in early august so will have a six figure sum to invest then. Would not mind a correction of some type in the next couple of weeks.

Perhaps the dandarc does stupid things with money top is in? I personally doubt it, but experts are divided.

Mr Mark

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4742 on: July 15, 2019, 10:39:30 AM »
I just saw a market expert on CNBC warning that there's going to be a big crash, like, soon.

Maybe.

So, top must be in! He said the market is at a record high, exactly like it was just before every other crash. Co-incidence? I think not! It was spooky how obviously correct he was.

I'm immediately going to gold and beanie babies & tulips & bitcoin.
Kind of hope he's right. Moved everything to tulip bulbs this morning. Not really - but mortgage refinance (correcting a major financial mistake - we paid off our mortgage in 2016). Should close in early august so will have a six figure sum to invest then. Would not mind a correction of some type in the next couple of weeks.

Perhaps the dandarc does stupid things with money top is in? I personally doubt it, but experts are divided.

A cynic might say the exact same data the expert was pointing to shows that - despite occasional crashes - the market always recovers to new tops! So invest!!! ;-)

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4743 on: July 15, 2019, 10:43:49 AM »
Those dang cynics and their predictions of a rising market!

Really though, a crash would be pretty great for me. My spouse and I have stable jobs, and we are relatively early in our investing lifetime, so this is as good a time as any to be able to buy investments at 30% off. Perhaps my prayers that the great and mighty top show itself will be heard.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4744 on: July 15, 2019, 11:17:47 AM »
Those dang cynics and their predictions of a rising market!

Really though, a crash would be pretty great for me. My spouse and I have stable jobs, and we are relatively early in our investing lifetime, so this is as good a time as any to be able to buy investments at 30% off. Perhaps my prayers that the great and mighty top show itself will be heard.

+1.  It makes me sad to see the market go up right now because it's just so expensive for those of us who are buying.  The silver lining is this thread gets rolling again when it does. 

Travis

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4745 on: July 15, 2019, 01:49:36 PM »
I just saw a market expert a guy with a suit and a microphone on CNBC warning that there's going to be a big crash, like, soon.


FTFY.

I'm starting to measure the market by the number of Bitcoin comments I get on Facebook.  When the price goes up, everyone is a crypto expert. When it crashes again - crickets. They must have frequent and awesome vacation plans. They're never around to talk when the bottom is in.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4746 on: July 15, 2019, 08:28:18 PM »
I actually read that the yield curve inversion was about to reverse.  Yield curve top is in!

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4747 on: July 15, 2019, 11:35:39 PM »
I actually read that the yield curve inversion was about to reverse.  Yield curve top is in!

A reversing yield curve inversion! Time to go triple-hedged leverage on your same-day put options. That’s how you get 1,000% returns.

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4748 on: July 16, 2019, 07:23:21 AM »
Given that it's the summer, I prefer to prune a triple hedge with the leverage offered by good shears until it yields.  Then you can sit back and appreciate it's growth better.  Important to remember to keep a lot of liquidity nearby in case of thirst and put on your market cap first so you don't get burned.  If your liquidity is too high though you may need to P/E so stick close to a washroom.

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4749 on: July 16, 2019, 07:39:31 AM »
Given that it's the summer, I prefer to prune a triple hedge with the leverage offered by good shears until it yields.  Then you can sit back and appreciate it's growth better.  Important to remember to keep a lot of liquidity nearby in case of thirst and put on your market cap first so you don't get burned.  If your liquidity is too high though you may need to P/E so stick close to a washroom.

Oh, that is a really good point. If you prune your triple hedge early enough, you can get a second bloom. But we just had a full moon, so I’m afraid mine will just burn if I trim it now.

I may just put some lime in my liquidity and lounge in the shade. If you have a big tree nearby you don’t even need a washroom.