Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 1439471 times)

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6200 on: February 28, 2020, 03:05:25 PM »
dude i just checked dow is back to 9th October 19.

This leve was first reached january 2018.  If you invested then you are now flat or down

Hey! Thatís when I retired! I can retire!

What you mean you havenít already increased your spending to match new highs?  The re-retire again plan?

March 2017 is my firewall, it would definitely make me more nervous if we hit that

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6201 on: February 28, 2020, 03:07:48 PM »
dude i just checked dow is back to 9th October 19.
Yesterday it was 2 years back.  And the DOW was down another 1.39% today.
And what does that tell you, Garrett B.?
It tells me that the DOW is down the amount I just posted in the previous post.
No, no, no!
Have you learned nothing??!!

Hereís a hint

It starts with T


Optimiser

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6202 on: February 28, 2020, 04:09:57 PM »
dude i just checked dow is back to 9th October 19.
Yesterday it was 2 years back.  And the DOW was down another 1.39% today.
And what does that tell you, Garrett B.?
It tells me that the DOW is down the amount I just posted in the previous post.
No, no, no!
Have you learned nothing??!!

Hereís a hint

It starts with T
it ends with "op is in"

PDXTabs

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6203 on: February 28, 2020, 04:15:41 PM »
March 2017 is my firewall, it would definitely make me more nervous if we hit that

Why, that seems pretty arbitrary?

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6204 on: February 28, 2020, 04:44:40 PM »
Today was the bottom. Uppity Up Up we go!

fattest_foot

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6205 on: February 28, 2020, 07:01:34 PM »
At what point should we start worrying?

Sorry, but if you weren't already panicking, you missed it.

Panic top was already in.

BigMoneyJim

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6206 on: February 28, 2020, 07:44:09 PM »
Sorry, but if you weren't already panicking, you missed it.

Panic top was already in.

LOL, truth of the thread!

Agree, I've already been through the "what if I..." temptations. I've gone through them all and have elected to continue with my original plan which is to stop topping off my rolling cash reserve while things are dicey. Will review in a couple of years if needed.

TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6207 on: February 28, 2020, 08:01:37 PM »

Now, where's the sacramental wine?

I think this thread deserves sacramental whiskey.

Finally, a religion I can get behind!

T-p is in!

Everyone take a sip!

Religion and drinking game all in one!

I was raised on a sacrament of Welchís grape juice and Hawaiian bread. I like this new religion better. But since we are still figuring out its particulars, what about gin and tonics? That is truly the drink of the gods.

Good when it's hot... but I don't care for them when there's snow on the ground.  Can we rotate the sacramental beverage based on the prevailing weather in the northern hemisphere?

Is not The Top all things to all peoples?

All the blessed drinks may be thine! The holiness of The Top does not limit its limitless bounty to whiskey or to wine!

TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6208 on: February 28, 2020, 08:05:47 PM »
I've been studying the ancient texts and came across this gem:

"The market's rise after a period of re-accumulation is a bullish sign. Nevertheless, fulcrum characteristics are not yet clearly present and a resistance area exists 40 points higher in the Dow, so it is clearly premature to say the next leg of the bull market is up. If, in the coming weeks, a test of the lows holds and the market breaks out of its flag, a further rise would be indicated. Should the lows be violated, a continuation of the intermediate term downtrend is called for. In view of the current situation, it is a distinct possibility that traders will sit in the wings awaiting a clearer delineation of the trend and the market will move in a narrow trading range."

Almighty and venerable Thorstach, what do you make of such technical analysis?

Translation: If the market doesn't go down, it may go up. Otherwise, if it goes down - it goes down. It's also possible it won't move much.

Serious distraction tactics there - constructed to demonstrate a win no matter what the market does.

Garrett B.

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6209 on: February 29, 2020, 06:27:26 AM »
dude i just checked dow is back to 9th October 19.
Yesterday it was 2 years back.  And the DOW was down another 1.39% today.
And what does that tell you, Garrett B.?
It tells me that the DOW is down the amount I just posted in the previous post.
No, no, no!
Have you learned nothing??!!

Oops, sorry!  The top was in??

BigMoneyJim

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6210 on: February 29, 2020, 07:22:25 AM »
You should be trying to figure out what 0ų0 is because that's what both P and E are going to be at soon.

Well, that's optimistic. I just did my weekly spreadsheet update to find the annualized gain/loss of the past week for me is -460.32%. So P should be well below zero in a handful of months.

Although I guess that qualifies as "soon" and doesn't preclude further drops...well played, sir.

bthewalls

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6211 on: February 29, 2020, 05:34:10 PM »
Iím goin shopping on Monday when market opens


Baz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6212 on: February 29, 2020, 08:51:45 PM »

Oops, sorry!  The top was in??
Close - TOP IS IN. Forever and always amen.

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6213 on: February 29, 2020, 09:23:18 PM »
Should this just be changed to Top Was In for a few weeks, then return to normal programming?

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6214 on: February 29, 2020, 11:41:24 PM »
Should this just be changed to Top Was In for a few weeks, then return to normal programming?

You need to leave if youíre going to talk like that.

frugledoc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6215 on: March 01, 2020, 01:33:02 AM »
Looks like thorstach was right all along!  I wonder if they have bought the dip or will wait till bottom is in!

Top is in.  We are never again going to see the Top.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6216 on: March 01, 2020, 02:26:47 AM »
March 2017 is my firewall, it would definitely make me more nervous if we hit that

Why, that seems pretty arbitrary?

Because I the whole thing

mrmoonymartian

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6217 on: March 01, 2020, 04:01:40 AM »
March 2017 is my firewall, it would definitely make me more nervous if we hit that

Why, that seems pretty arbitrary?

Because I the whole thing

Because this thread was started in April 2017.

Fomerly known as something

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6218 on: March 01, 2020, 06:18:17 AM »

Now, where's the sacramental wine?

I think this thread deserves sacramental whiskey.

Finally, a religion I can get behind!

T-p is in!

Everyone take a sip!

Religion and drinking game all in one!

I was raised on a sacrament of Welchís grape juice and Hawaiian bread. I like this new religion better. But since we are still figuring out its particulars, what about gin and tonics? That is truly the drink of the gods.

Gin and tonics are good against malaria (to an extent the quinidine in the tonic) so it should be perfect with the coronavirus top right?

Bettersafe

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6219 on: March 01, 2020, 06:52:33 AM »
Iím goin shopping on Monday when market opens


Baz

+1 :-)

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6220 on: March 01, 2020, 09:02:17 AM »
At what point should we start worrying?

Thereís clearly a huge technical support level at $0, so Iíd definitely start worrying if we go below that

Thanks, now I'm trying to calculate what interest rates would justify a P/E of infinity...

You should be trying to figure out what 0ų0 is because that's what both P and E are going to be at soon.
r

It's 1.

Alternatepriorities

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6221 on: March 01, 2020, 09:53:06 AM »
At what point should we start worrying?

Thereís clearly a huge technical support level at $0, so Iíd definitely start worrying if we go below that

Thanks, now I'm trying to calculate what interest rates would justify a P/E of infinity...

You should be trying to figure out what 0ų0 is because that's what both P and E are going to be at soon.
r

It's 1.

On review I flopped the joke... I was thinking about the idea that what constitutes a reasonable p/e is depended on what interest rates are. Cheaper money means it makes sense to borrow and invest in equities even if the expected returns are lower. If interest rates were truly negative and the world somehow wasnít in economic free fall it would make sense to borrow and buy at virtually any P/E and the top would be in forever!

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6222 on: March 01, 2020, 12:40:28 PM »
Should this just be changed to Top Was In for a few weeks, then return to normal programming?

You need to leave if youíre going to talk like that.

Dud I peak too early?

Monerexia

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Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6224 on: March 01, 2020, 06:01:19 PM »
Looks like bottom not quite in https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/01/awaiting-us-stock-futures-open-at-6-pm-after-wall-streets-worst-week-since-2008.html

Yep. Looks like DJIA futures are down about 260. Tomorrow will be a fun day.

The top is pining for the fjords!

MissNancyPryor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6225 on: March 01, 2020, 08:43:32 PM »
Someone must have said this but I don't see it in the flurry of the last few days.  Sorry if it's a repeat but I just looked it up and see that the Dow is still 25% higher than it was on the day this thread was started (over 25K now vs 20K back then). 

But now the flu top is most certainly in.  Mass hysteria.  Human sacrifice.  Dogs and cats living together. 

We will be boiling our shoes for the broth before you know it.






Alternatepriorities

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6226 on: March 01, 2020, 09:13:14 PM »
Looks like bottom not quite in https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/01/awaiting-us-stock-futures-open-at-6-pm-after-wall-streets-worst-week-since-2008.html

Yep. Looks like DJIA futures are down about 260. Tomorrow will be a fun day.

The top is pining for the fjords!

I clicked the link an hour after you posted it and itís now up 200 points... itís almost like the experts canít predict the top. We must consult thorstach!

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6227 on: March 02, 2020, 02:12:12 AM »
Looks like bottom not quite in https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/01/awaiting-us-stock-futures-open-at-6-pm-after-wall-streets-worst-week-since-2008.html

Yep. Looks like DJIA futures are down about 260. Tomorrow will be a fun day.

The top is pining for the fjords!

I clicked the link an hour after you posted it and itís now up 200 points... itís almost like the experts canít predict the top. We must consult thorstach!

Bull trap incoming.  DONT fall for it.  Top is IN

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6228 on: March 02, 2020, 07:38:12 AM »
Thanks, now I'm trying to calculate what interest rates would justify a P/E of infinity...

You should be trying to figure out what 0ų0 is because that's what both P and E are going to be at soon.
r

It's 1.

It's actually the set of all numbers.  x = 0/0 -> 0x = 0 -> it works no matter what you plug in for x -> 0ų0 is whatever you want it to be -> mathy types' heads explode.


We will be boiling our shoes for the broth before you know it.

Don't boil your shoes.  You will need them to run for your life.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6229 on: March 02, 2020, 10:00:33 AM »
My thinking is this:

We are about where China was in mid Jan, based on the few cases popping up in the USA.

There is no reason to think we are more immune than people in China, Italy, Japan or on the cruise ships.

The death rate seems to be about 0.5% to 2%.  5% to 10% require hospitalization though.   

When hospitals become saturated, around end of March, that is when panic will set in.

I don't know if the USA will build a bunch of temporary hospitals like China did...kind of doubt it.

I don't know where the top is, but the bottom will be when people can't get their loved one into a hospital bed and on a ventilator.

If we lockdown major cities in the USA and shut down schools, the bottom will be about DOW 17,000 or so.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6230 on: March 02, 2020, 11:46:51 AM »
If we lockdown major cities in the USA and shut down schools, the bottom will be about DOW 17,000 or so.

So it's going to set the market back all the way to the old-timey days of 2016.  That was way back in the day when people thought the DOW was a good index.

bthewalls

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6231 on: March 02, 2020, 12:39:17 PM »
Weres thorstach when you need him/her?....

Helvegen

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6232 on: March 02, 2020, 01:01:27 PM »
My thinking is this:

We are about where China was in mid Jan, based on the few cases popping up in the USA.

There is no reason to think we are more immune than people in China, Italy, Japan or on the cruise ships.

The death rate seems to be about 0.5% to 2%.  5% to 10% require hospitalization though.   

When hospitals become saturated, around end of March, that is when panic will set in.

I don't know if the USA will build a bunch of temporary hospitals like China did...kind of doubt it.

I don't know where the top is, but the bottom will be when people can't get their loved one into a hospital bed and on a ventilator.

If we lockdown major cities in the USA and shut down schools, the bottom will be about DOW 17,000 or so.

I doubt it. I live in the area where it has apparently been in the US the longest and has spread around the most so far. They say the virus has been here for weeks, if not a couple of months. People are not dropping like flies. My daughter had a sore throat 10 days ago and gave it to me. Was that CV? Or something else? Who knows when the symptoms are anything between nothing, mild cold, and you are on a ventilator? It never occurred to me that she might have had it before all this blew up and she got it from someone at her school who got it from who knows who gave it to who knows. How many other people may have had it and never knew or thought it was just something else? Probably a shitton. I am operating under the assumption that most of my local population has been infected, is infected, and will very shortly be infected given how contagious it seems to be. Yet, life goes on here like CV isn't a thing really.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6233 on: March 02, 2020, 01:51:35 PM »
My thinking is this:

We are about where China was in mid Jan, based on the few cases popping up in the USA.

There is no reason to think we are more immune than people in China, Italy, Japan or on the cruise ships.

The death rate seems to be about 0.5% to 2%.  5% to 10% require hospitalization though.   

When hospitals become saturated, around end of March, that is when panic will set in.

I don't know if the USA will build a bunch of temporary hospitals like China did...kind of doubt it.

I don't know where the top is, but the bottom will be when people can't get their loved one into a hospital bed and on a ventilator.

If we lockdown major cities in the USA and shut down schools, the bottom will be about DOW 17,000 or so.

Weíll see. The key thing is not what we think but how the public at large reacts. When we get a snowstorm these days, itís like the freaking apocalypse has come. Iím expecting disproportionate reactions.

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6234 on: March 02, 2020, 02:00:40 PM »
I've been at a yoga retreat this past week aligning my chakras for the top. Did I miss anything?

Davnasty

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6235 on: March 02, 2020, 02:05:02 PM »
I've been at a yoga retreat this past week aligning my chakras for the top. Did I miss anything?

thorstach found that lost TV remote

there it is

Other than that, not much going on.

ExitViaTheCashRamp

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6236 on: March 02, 2020, 02:21:15 PM »
Now this is something you don't see everyday !  (9:20pm Uk time)


Dow Jones New York   5.10%   26705.73   +1296.37

Nasdaq New York   4.23%   8929.78   +362.41

S&P 500 Chicago   4.63%   3090.96   +136.74


 Dead cat bounce top is in.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6237 on: March 02, 2020, 02:23:28 PM »
Now this is something you don't see everyday !  (9:20pm Uk time)


Dow Jones New York   5.10%   26705.73   +1296.37

Nasdaq New York   4.23%   8929.78   +362.41

S&P 500 Chicago   4.63%   3090.96   +136.74


 Dead cat bounce top is in.

You do when Thorstache steps in!

hadabeardonce

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6238 on: March 02, 2020, 05:13:29 PM »
Now this is something you don't see everyday !  (9:20pm Uk time)


Dow Jones New York   5.10%   26705.73   +1296.37

Nasdaq New York   4.23%   8929.78   +362.41

S&P 500 Chicago   4.63%   3090.96   +136.74


 Dead cat bounce top is in.
Breaking: Coronavirus Kills Cat, Dogged Market Fetches Gains

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6239 on: March 02, 2020, 05:47:57 PM »



Helvegen

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6240 on: March 03, 2020, 10:08:02 AM »
Nobody knows nothing, but this was an interesting observation made on Sunday.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/fc19iz/market_gonna_break_some_necks_this_week/

Tyson

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6241 on: March 03, 2020, 10:39:00 AM »
Nobody knows nothing, but this was an interesting observation made on Sunday.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/fc19iz/market_gonna_break_some_necks_this_week/

So, when VIX hits 36, 38, 33.5, 41, 49, 45.5, 41 or 46.5 we should sell?  That seems to be the lesson there.

VIX peaks, just like any other peak, can only be identified in retrospect.  That's sort of the whole point of this thread....

Helvegen

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6242 on: March 03, 2020, 10:47:55 AM »
Well it is logically inconsistent that to look and say the market goes up long term because it always has because see the pattern, but then to dismiss the patterns that develop otherwise along the way.

Tyson

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6243 on: March 03, 2020, 10:56:45 AM »
Well it is logically inconsistent that to look and say the market goes up long term because it always has because see the pattern, but then to dismiss the patterns that develop otherwise along the way.

The advice seems to be "watch out for market drops/volatility when VIX peaks".  And it then proceeds to list all the VIX peaks.  The problem is those peaks are totally random and can't be identified until they are already past.  So the advice is pretty worthless. 
« Last Edit: March 03, 2020, 10:58:26 AM by Tyson »

Alternatepriorities

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6244 on: March 03, 2020, 11:10:25 AM »
Well it is logically inconsistent that to look and say the market goes up long term because it always has because see the pattern, but then to dismiss the patterns that develop otherwise along the way.

The advice seems to be "watch out for market drops/volatility when VIX peaks".  And it then proceeds to list all the VIX peaks.  The problem is those peaks are totally random and can't be identified until they are already past.  So the advice is pretty worthless.

Seems the problem is that human minds are too good at finding patterns and find them where they are not. That is why we need the mighty Thorstach.

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6245 on: March 03, 2020, 11:26:53 AM »
Well it is logically inconsistent that to look and say the market goes up long term because it always has because see the pattern, but then to dismiss the patterns that develop otherwise along the way.

The advice seems to be "watch out for market drops/volatility when VIX peaks".  And it then proceeds to list all the VIX peaks.  The problem is those peaks are totally random and can't be identified until they are already past.  So the advice is pretty worthless.

Seems the problem is that human minds are too good at finding patterns and find them where they are not. That is why we need the mighty Thorstach.

It is very simple. You should have sold all your stocks on Wednesday, February 19, then bought them all back last Friday. Just look at the SP500 chart. It is perfectly obvious. Wait until the end of this month, look at the chart again, then you will know exactly what you should have done this month.

If you keep doing this, you will become very rich.

dandarc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6246 on: March 03, 2020, 11:37:59 AM »
You forgot the "write a newsletter and charge way too much for it" step in the get rich process there @Wintergreen78

Alternatepriorities

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6247 on: March 03, 2020, 11:48:00 AM »
You forgot the "write a newsletter and charge way too much for it" step in the get rich process there @Wintergreen78

That actually made me laugh out loud. Fortunately I work at home.

Helvegen

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6248 on: March 03, 2020, 11:51:23 AM »
Well it is logically inconsistent that to look and say the market goes up long term because it always has because see the pattern, but then to dismiss the patterns that develop otherwise along the way.

The advice seems to be "watch out for market drops/volatility when VIX peaks".  And it then proceeds to list all the VIX peaks.  The problem is those peaks are totally random and can't be identified until they are already past.  So the advice is pretty worthless.

Seems the problem is that human minds are too good at finding patterns and find them where they are not. That is why we need the mighty Thorstach.

Well, how do we know that the market will always go up and this thread is just pure parody because the market will always go up? The only proof we have is in the pattern, but apparently, in every other case, the pattern is unreliable. We all could lose everything, but we'd rather not believe that, and stick our fingers in our ears and make these goofy threads to ignore that. I know if the stock market goes to zero, clearly other things to worry about, but that doesn't mean it could not happen just because we would rather not believe that it would. And it does not mean that if the stock market went to zero that it would not recover. But would it recover in a timeline relevant to you personally? That's all that REALLY matters. Even the most of the ardent Boglehead followers on their own forum admit that. It is why some people obsess endlessly over sequence of return risk.

I have no idea about the future. I have definitely NOT pulled all of my money out of the market (just only recognized my own risk tolerance over the weekend in taxable), but I have plenty of friends my own age (early millennials) who just said fuck it after losing everything in the economic crash of 2008-2009 to never invest again, not taxable, not retirement, nothing. Nothing I have said would convince them to ever put another dime in the stock market. It is a rigged game and they are going to lose and fuck it and fuck them. Yes, they lost out on all the gains, but they don't care because they don't believe the stock market is real (fair), that it isn't rigged, and that you won't get hosed in the end when you finally need to realize those gains. Are they dumb? Maybe, but it also took me a long time myself to get over my distrust and I don't think I really completely have. But I have no other choices and unlike my friends and family, cannot stand to watch my money do nothing but lose to inflation. But I could lose it all anyway. What kind of shit situation is this for ALL of us? That we have no choice but to either risk our hard earned money in the stock market or doom it to inflation? But life isn't fair, blah, blah, blah.

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6249 on: March 03, 2020, 11:56:02 AM »
Well it is logically inconsistent that to look and say the market goes up long term because it always has because see the pattern, but then to dismiss the patterns that develop otherwise along the way.

The advice seems to be "watch out for market drops/volatility when VIX peaks".  And it then proceeds to list all the VIX peaks.  The problem is those peaks are totally random and can't be identified until they are already past.  So the advice is pretty worthless.

Seems the problem is that human minds are too good at finding patterns and find them where they are not. That is why we need the mighty Thorstach.

Well, how do we know that the market will always go up and this thread is just pure parody because the market will always go up? The only proof we have is in the pattern, but apparently, in every other case, the pattern is unreliable. We all could lose everything, but we'd rather not believe that, and stick our fingers in our ears and make these goofy threads to ignore that. I know if the stock market goes to zero, clearly other things to worry about, but that doesn't mean it could not happen just because we would rather not believe that it would. And it does not mean that if the stock market went to zero that it would not recover. But would it recover in a timeline relevant to you personally? That's all that REALLY matters. Even the most of the ardent Boglehead followers on their own forum admit that. It is why some people obsess endlessly over sequence of return risk.

I have no idea about the future. I have definitely NOT pulled all of my money out of the market (just only recognized my own risk tolerance over the weekend in taxable), but I have plenty of friends my own age (early millennials) who just said fuck it after losing everything in the economic crash of 2008-2009 to never invest again, not taxable, not retirement, nothing. Nothing I have said would convince them to ever put another dime in the stock market. It is a rigged game and they are going to lose and fuck it and fuck them. Yes, they lost out on all the gains, but they don't care because they don't believe the stock market is real (fair), that it isn't rigged, and that you won't get hosed in the end when you finally need to realize those gains. Are they dumb? Maybe, but it also took me a long time myself to get over my distrust and I don't think I really completely have. But I have no other choices and unlike my friends and family, cannot stand to watch my money do nothing but lose to inflation. But I could lose it all anyway. What kind of shit situation is this for ALL of us? That we have no choice but to either risk our hard earned money in the stock market or doom it to inflation? But life isn't fair, blah, blah, blah.

Those who fear the top will only see the bottom.