Top is in

[BigMoneyJim]

You should be trying to figure out what 0÷0 is because that's what both P and E are going to be at soon.

Well, that's optimistic. I just did my weekly spreadsheet update to find the annualized gain/loss of the past week for me is -460.32%. So P should be well below zero in a handful of months.

Although I guess that qualifies as "soon" and doesn't preclude further drops...well played, sir.

[bthewalls]

I’m goin shopping on Monday when market opens


Baz

[dandarc]

Oops, sorry!  The top was in??

Close - TOP IS IN. Forever and always amen.

[Glenstache]

Should this just be changed to Top Was In for a few weeks, then return to normal programming?

[Wintergreen78]

Should this just be changed to Top Was In for a few weeks, then return to normal programming?

You need to leave if you’re going to talk like that.

[frugledoc]

Looks like thorstach was right all along!  I wonder if they have bought the dip or will wait till bottom is in!

Top is in.  We are never again going to see the Top.

[dragoncar]

March 2017 is my firewall, it would definitely make me more nervous if we hit that

Why, that seems pretty arbitrary?

Because I the whole thing

[mrmoonymartian]

March 2017 is my firewall, it would definitely make me more nervous if we hit that

Why, that seems pretty arbitrary?

Because I the whole thing

Because this thread was started in April 2017.

[Fomerly known as something]

Now, where's the sacramental wine?

I think this thread deserves sacramental whiskey.

Finally, a religion I can get behind!

T-p is in!

Everyone take a sip!

Religion and drinking game all in one!

I was raised on a sacrament of Welch’s grape juice and Hawaiian bread. I like this new religion better. But since we are still figuring out its particulars, what about gin and tonics? That is truly the drink of the gods.

Gin and tonics are good against malaria (to an extent the quinidine in the tonic) so it should be perfect with the coronavirus top right?

[Bettersafe]

I’m goin shopping on Monday when market opens


Baz

+1 :-)

[GuitarStv]

At what point should we start worrying?

There’s clearly a huge technical support level at $0, so I’d definitely start worrying if we go below that

Thanks, now I'm trying to calculate what interest rates would justify a P/E of infinity...

You should be trying to figure out what 0÷0 is because that's what both P and E are going to be at soon.

r

It's 1.

[Alternatepriorities]

At what point should we start worrying?

There’s clearly a huge technical support level at $0, so I’d definitely start worrying if we go below that

Thanks, now I'm trying to calculate what interest rates would justify a P/E of infinity...

You should be trying to figure out what 0÷0 is because that's what both P and E are going to be at soon.

r

It's 1.

On review I flopped the joke... I was thinking about the idea that what constitutes a reasonable p/e is depended on what interest rates are. Cheaper money means it makes sense to borrow and invest in equities even if the expected returns are lower. If interest rates were truly negative and the world somehow wasn’t in economic free fall it would make sense to borrow and buy at virtually any P/E and the top would be in forever!

[Glenstache]

Should this just be changed to Top Was In for a few weeks, then return to normal programming?

You need to leave if you’re going to talk like that.

Dud I peak too early?

[Monerexia]

Looks like bottom not quite in https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/01/awaiting-us-stock-futures-open-at-6-pm-after-wall-streets-worst-week-since-2008.html

[Buffaloski Boris]

Looks like bottom not quite in https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/01/awaiting-us-stock-futures-open-at-6-pm-after-wall-streets-worst-week-since-2008.html

Yep. Looks like DJIA futures are down about 260. Tomorrow will be a fun day.

The top is pining for the fjords!

[MissNancyPryor]

Someone must have said this but I don't see it in the flurry of the last few days.  Sorry if it's a repeat but I just looked it up and see that the Dow is still 25% higher than it was on the day this thread was started (over 25K now vs 20K back then). 

But now the flu top is most certainly in.  Mass hysteria.  Human sacrifice.  Dogs and cats living together. 

We will be boiling our shoes for the broth before you know it.

[Alternatepriorities]

Looks like bottom not quite in https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/01/awaiting-us-stock-futures-open-at-6-pm-after-wall-streets-worst-week-since-2008.html

Yep. Looks like DJIA futures are down about 260. Tomorrow will be a fun day.

The top is pining for the fjords!

I clicked the link an hour after you posted it and it’s now up 200 points... it’s almost like the experts can’t predict the top. We must consult thorstach!

[dragoncar]

Looks like bottom not quite in https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/01/awaiting-us-stock-futures-open-at-6-pm-after-wall-streets-worst-week-since-2008.html

Yep. Looks like DJIA futures are down about 260. Tomorrow will be a fun day.

The top is pining for the fjords!

I clicked the link an hour after you posted it and it’s now up 200 points... it’s almost like the experts can’t predict the top. We must consult thorstach!

Bull trap incoming.  DONT fall for it.  Top is IN

[dougules]

Thanks, now I'm trying to calculate what interest rates would justify a P/E of infinity...

You should be trying to figure out what 0÷0 is because that's what both P and E are going to be at soon.

r

It's 1.

It's actually the set of all numbers.  x = 0/0 -> 0x = 0 -> it works no matter what you plug in for x -> 0÷0 is whatever you want it to be -> mathy types' heads explode.

We will be boiling our shoes for the broth before you know it.

Don't boil your shoes.  You will need them to run for your life.

[Roland of Gilead]

My thinking is this:

We are about where China was in mid Jan, based on the few cases popping up in the USA.

There is no reason to think we are more immune than people in China, Italy, Japan or on the cruise ships.

The death rate seems to be about 0.5% to 2%.  5% to 10% require hospitalization though.   

When hospitals become saturated, around end of March, that is when panic will set in.

I don't know if the USA will build a bunch of temporary hospitals like China did...kind of doubt it.

I don't know where the top is, but the bottom will be when people can't get their loved one into a hospital bed and on a ventilator.

If we lockdown major cities in the USA and shut down schools, the bottom will be about DOW 17,000 or so.

[dougules]

If we lockdown major cities in the USA and shut down schools, the bottom will be about DOW 17,000 or so.

So it's going to set the market back all the way to the old-timey days of 2016.  That was way back in the day when people thought the DOW was a good index.

[bthewalls]

Weres thorstach when you need him/her?....

[Helvegen]

My thinking is this:

We are about where China was in mid Jan, based on the few cases popping up in the USA.

There is no reason to think we are more immune than people in China, Italy, Japan or on the cruise ships.

The death rate seems to be about 0.5% to 2%.  5% to 10% require hospitalization though.   

When hospitals become saturated, around end of March, that is when panic will set in.

I don't know if the USA will build a bunch of temporary hospitals like China did...kind of doubt it.

I don't know where the top is, but the bottom will be when people can't get their loved one into a hospital bed and on a ventilator.

If we lockdown major cities in the USA and shut down schools, the bottom will be about DOW 17,000 or so.

I doubt it. I live in the area where it has apparently been in the US the longest and has spread around the most so far. They say the virus has been here for weeks, if not a couple of months. People are not dropping like flies. My daughter had a sore throat 10 days ago and gave it to me. Was that CV? Or something else? Who knows when the symptoms are anything between nothing, mild cold, and you are on a ventilator? It never occurred to me that she might have had it before all this blew up and she got it from someone at her school who got it from who knows who gave it to who knows. How many other people may have had it and never knew or thought it was just something else? Probably a shitton. I am operating under the assumption that most of my local population has been infected, is infected, and will very shortly be infected given how contagious it seems to be. Yet, life goes on here like CV isn't a thing really.

[Buffaloski Boris]

My thinking is this:

We are about where China was in mid Jan, based on the few cases popping up in the USA.

There is no reason to think we are more immune than people in China, Italy, Japan or on the cruise ships.

The death rate seems to be about 0.5% to 2%.  5% to 10% require hospitalization though.   

When hospitals become saturated, around end of March, that is when panic will set in.

I don't know if the USA will build a bunch of temporary hospitals like China did...kind of doubt it.

I don't know where the top is, but the bottom will be when people can't get their loved one into a hospital bed and on a ventilator.

If we lockdown major cities in the USA and shut down schools, the bottom will be about DOW 17,000 or so.

We’ll see. The key thing is not what we think but how the public at large reacts. When we get a snowstorm these days, it’s like the freaking apocalypse has come. I’m expecting disproportionate reactions.

[aspiringnomad]

I've been at a yoga retreat this past week aligning my chakras for the top. Did I miss anything?

[Davnasty]

I've been at a yoga retreat this past week aligning my chakras for the top. Did I miss anything?

thorstach found that lost TV remote

there it is

Other than that, not much going on.

[ExitViaTheCashRamp]

Now this is something you don't see everyday !  (9:20pm Uk time)


Dow Jones New York   5.10%   26705.73   +1296.37

Nasdaq New York   4.23%   8929.78   +362.41

S&P 500 Chicago   4.63%   3090.96   +136.74


 Dead cat bounce top is in.

[HPstache]

Now this is something you don't see everyday !  (9:20pm Uk time)


Dow Jones New York   5.10%   26705.73   +1296.37

Nasdaq New York   4.23%   8929.78   +362.41

S&P 500 Chicago   4.63%   3090.96   +136.74


 Dead cat bounce top is in.

You do when Thorstache steps in!

[hadabeardonce]

Now this is something you don't see everyday !  (9:20pm Uk time)


Dow Jones New York   5.10%   26705.73   +1296.37

Nasdaq New York   4.23%   8929.78   +362.41

S&P 500 Chicago   4.63%   3090.96   +136.74


 Dead cat bounce top is in.

Breaking: Coronavirus Kills Cat, Dogged Market Fetches Gains

[Glenstache]

[Helvegen]

Nobody knows nothing, but this was an interesting observation made on Sunday.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/fc19iz/market_gonna_break_some_necks_this_week/

[Tyson]

Nobody knows nothing, but this was an interesting observation made on Sunday.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/fc19iz/market_gonna_break_some_necks_this_week/

So, when VIX hits 36, 38, 33.5, 41, 49, 45.5, 41 or 46.5 we should sell?  That seems to be the lesson there.

VIX peaks, just like any other peak, can only be identified in retrospect.  That's sort of the whole point of this thread....

[Helvegen]

Well it is logically inconsistent that to look and say the market goes up long term because it always has because see the pattern, but then to dismiss the patterns that develop otherwise along the way.

[Tyson]

Well it is logically inconsistent that to look and say the market goes up long term because it always has because see the pattern, but then to dismiss the patterns that develop otherwise along the way.

The advice seems to be "watch out for market drops/volatility when VIX peaks".  And it then proceeds to list all the VIX peaks.  The problem is those peaks are totally random and can't be identified until they are already past.  So the advice is pretty worthless. 

[Alternatepriorities]

Well it is logically inconsistent that to look and say the market goes up long term because it always has because see the pattern, but then to dismiss the patterns that develop otherwise along the way.

The advice seems to be "watch out for market drops/volatility when VIX peaks".  And it then proceeds to list all the VIX peaks.  The problem is those peaks are totally random and can't be identified until they are already past.  So the advice is pretty worthless.

Seems the problem is that human minds are too good at finding patterns and find them where they are not. That is why we need the mighty Thorstach.

[Wintergreen78]

Well it is logically inconsistent that to look and say the market goes up long term because it always has because see the pattern, but then to dismiss the patterns that develop otherwise along the way.

The advice seems to be "watch out for market drops/volatility when VIX peaks".  And it then proceeds to list all the VIX peaks.  The problem is those peaks are totally random and can't be identified until they are already past.  So the advice is pretty worthless.

Seems the problem is that human minds are too good at finding patterns and find them where they are not. That is why we need the mighty Thorstach.

It is very simple. You should have sold all your stocks on Wednesday, February 19, then bought them all back last Friday. Just look at the SP500 chart. It is perfectly obvious. Wait until the end of this month, look at the chart again, then you will know exactly what you should have done this month.

If you keep doing this, you will become very rich.

[dandarc]

You forgot the "write a newsletter and charge way too much for it" step in the get rich process there @Wintergreen78

[Alternatepriorities]

You forgot the "write a newsletter and charge way too much for it" step in the get rich process there @Wintergreen78

That actually made me laugh out loud. Fortunately I work at home.

[Helvegen]

Well it is logically inconsistent that to look and say the market goes up long term because it always has because see the pattern, but then to dismiss the patterns that develop otherwise along the way.

The advice seems to be "watch out for market drops/volatility when VIX peaks".  And it then proceeds to list all the VIX peaks.  The problem is those peaks are totally random and can't be identified until they are already past.  So the advice is pretty worthless.

Seems the problem is that human minds are too good at finding patterns and find them where they are not. That is why we need the mighty Thorstach.

Well, how do we know that the market will always go up and this thread is just pure parody because the market will always go up? The only proof we have is in the pattern, but apparently, in every other case, the pattern is unreliable. We all could lose everything, but we'd rather not believe that, and stick our fingers in our ears and make these goofy threads to ignore that. I know if the stock market goes to zero, clearly other things to worry about, but that doesn't mean it could not happen just because we would rather not believe that it would. And it does not mean that if the stock market went to zero that it would not recover. But would it recover in a timeline relevant to you personally? That's all that REALLY matters. Even the most of the ardent Boglehead followers on their own forum admit that. It is why some people obsess endlessly over sequence of return risk.

I have no idea about the future. I have definitely NOT pulled all of my money out of the market (just only recognized my own risk tolerance over the weekend in taxable), but I have plenty of friends my own age (early millennials) who just said fuck it after losing everything in the economic crash of 2008-2009 to never invest again, not taxable, not retirement, nothing. Nothing I have said would convince them to ever put another dime in the stock market. It is a rigged game and they are going to lose and fuck it and fuck them. Yes, they lost out on all the gains, but they don't care because they don't believe the stock market is real (fair), that it isn't rigged, and that you won't get hosed in the end when you finally need to realize those gains. Are they dumb? Maybe, but it also took me a long time myself to get over my distrust and I don't think I really completely have. But I have no other choices and unlike my friends and family, cannot stand to watch my money do nothing but lose to inflation. But I could lose it all anyway. What kind of shit situation is this for ALL of us? That we have no choice but to either risk our hard earned money in the stock market or doom it to inflation? But life isn't fair, blah, blah, blah.

[Glenstache]

Well it is logically inconsistent that to look and say the market goes up long term because it always has because see the pattern, but then to dismiss the patterns that develop otherwise along the way.

The advice seems to be "watch out for market drops/volatility when VIX peaks".  And it then proceeds to list all the VIX peaks.  The problem is those peaks are totally random and can't be identified until they are already past.  So the advice is pretty worthless.

Seems the problem is that human minds are too good at finding patterns and find them where they are not. That is why we need the mighty Thorstach.

Well, how do we know that the market will always go up and this thread is just pure parody because the market will always go up? The only proof we have is in the pattern, but apparently, in every other case, the pattern is unreliable. We all could lose everything, but we'd rather not believe that, and stick our fingers in our ears and make these goofy threads to ignore that. I know if the stock market goes to zero, clearly other things to worry about, but that doesn't mean it could not happen just because we would rather not believe that it would. And it does not mean that if the stock market went to zero that it would not recover. But would it recover in a timeline relevant to you personally? That's all that REALLY matters. Even the most of the ardent Boglehead followers on their own forum admit that. It is why some people obsess endlessly over sequence of return risk.

I have no idea about the future. I have definitely NOT pulled all of my money out of the market (just only recognized my own risk tolerance over the weekend in taxable), but I have plenty of friends my own age (early millennials) who just said fuck it after losing everything in the economic crash of 2008-2009 to never invest again, not taxable, not retirement, nothing. Nothing I have said would convince them to ever put another dime in the stock market. It is a rigged game and they are going to lose and fuck it and fuck them. Yes, they lost out on all the gains, but they don't care because they don't believe the stock market is real (fair), that it isn't rigged, and that you won't get hosed in the end when you finally need to realize those gains. Are they dumb? Maybe, but it also took me a long time myself to get over my distrust and I don't think I really completely have. But I have no other choices and unlike my friends and family, cannot stand to watch my money do nothing but lose to inflation. But I could lose it all anyway. What kind of shit situation is this for ALL of us? That we have no choice but to either risk our hard earned money in the stock market or doom it to inflation? But life isn't fair, blah, blah, blah.

Those who fear the top will only see the bottom.

[Davnasty]

Well, how do we know that the market will always go up and this thread is just pure parody because the market will always go up?

It seems some have missed the joke or at least my understanding of it.

No jokes today...? Perhaps the Bravado Top is in.

I'm well aware that the market goes up and down, sometimes drastically and for long periods of time. I'm also aware that nothing in life is certain: the stock market going up, the strength of the US Dollar, that I won't lose my job, or even that I'll wake up tomorrow. The joke is that a random person on the internet (other than thorstache) giving out market predictions should be taken seriously.

But in all seriousness, the top is in.

[habanero]

09:59:59:  eminis trade at 3057.50
10:00:00:  Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points
11:23:01:  eminis trade at 3057.50

Top Fed influence is in.

[Buffaloski Boris]

Well it is logically inconsistent that to look and say the market goes up long term because it always has because see the pattern, but then to dismiss the patterns that develop otherwise along the way.

The advice seems to be "watch out for market drops/volatility when VIX peaks".  And it then proceeds to list all the VIX peaks.  The problem is those peaks are totally random and can't be identified until they are already past.  So the advice is pretty worthless.

Seems the problem is that human minds are too good at finding patterns and find them where they are not. That is why we need the mighty Thorstach.

Well, how do we know that the market will always go up and this thread is just pure parody because the market will always go up? The only proof we have is in the pattern, but apparently, in every other case, the pattern is unreliable. We all could lose everything, but we'd rather not believe that, and stick our fingers in our ears and make these goofy threads to ignore that. I know if the stock market goes to zero, clearly other things to worry about, but that doesn't mean it could not happen just because we would rather not believe that it would. And it does not mean that if the stock market went to zero that it would not recover. But would it recover in a timeline relevant to you personally? That's all that REALLY matters. Even the most of the ardent Boglehead followers on their own forum admit that. It is why some people obsess endlessly over sequence of return risk.

I have no idea about the future. I have definitely NOT pulled all of my money out of the market (just only recognized my own risk tolerance over the weekend in taxable), but I have plenty of friends my own age (early millennials) who just said fuck it after losing everything in the economic crash of 2008-2009 to never invest again, not taxable, not retirement, nothing. Nothing I have said would convince them to ever put another dime in the stock market. It is a rigged game and they are going to lose and fuck it and fuck them. Yes, they lost out on all the gains, but they don't care because they don't believe the stock market is real (fair), that it isn't rigged, and that you won't get hosed in the end when you finally need to realize those gains. Are they dumb? Maybe, but it also took me a long time myself to get over my distrust and I don't think I really completely have. But I have no other choices and unlike my friends and family, cannot stand to watch my money do nothing but lose to inflation. But I could lose it all anyway. What kind of shit situation is this for ALL of us? That we have no choice but to either risk our hard earned money in the stock market or doom it to inflation? But life isn't fair, blah, blah, blah.

Wow and I thought I was a skeptic.  Kind of sorry for your friends. Their getting screwed is something of a self-fulfilling prophecy. If you don’t invest, your money loses to inflation. And if you do invest, it is possible that you’ll lose it as well.

I get a kick out of this thread because there is so much silliness on it. A lot like the stock market if you think about it. What changed between Monday morning and Friday afternoon of last week? Not much that I can tell. Yet the “efficient” US stock market decided to drop over 10% of its value. And I’m reasonably confident it will continue to drop for a bit.* Why? Because people are awful at assessing downside risk and usually over-react to it. To the point of it being downright comical.

To summarize: The Top Is In!!**

*(we’ll see if I get to eat those words.)
**(for the last 2 days.)

[MissNancyPryor]

So much of the volatility observed on a day like today is due to "traders" rather than "investors."  This morning the Dow was -270 and then the rate drop happened the market zoomed to a +360 within about 14 seconds (no exaggeration on that).  600 point swings in mere seconds were happening all day.  This is because there are professional traders looking for momentary wins and are moving in and out of names constantly, several times a day. 

The great unwashed masses and 401K folks are investing for a much longer term.  We know that Apple and Boeing and Coke and McDonalds are not going away.  They will have a couple bad quarters but they will recover.  The world is not coming to an end.     

At first it pissed me off that things were swinging so wildly but then I remembered that there is a vast industry of professionals looking for the thinnest of margins to move in and out of stocks using algorithms.  They didn't decide that Amazon was good in the morning and rubbish by afternoon, they just played the table all day looking to catch the ride before getting back off.  Not fun to watch if you are in it for the long term but certainly not a harbinger of doom for the economy.     

[thorstach]

Recession is in, bottom is not in.

[Davnasty]

mine is. all in.

[dougules]

It's comforting to know that we will get the bottom call.  Or just that there will be a bottom at all. 

[Tyson]

But fluctuations matter exactly ZERO unless you are taking money out.  That's what boggles my mind about some people - they worry about fluctuations while they are still in the accumulation phase!  I cannot think of a bigger waste of time and energy.

Whether the market goes up, down or sideways, so what?  It's all just short term noise.  Look at the long term trends and you'll see the truth. 

And that truth is - top is in baby.  :P

[hadabeardonce]

Butt fluctuations

hehe, butt fluctuations

[HPstache]

But fluctuations matter exactly ZERO unless you are taking money out.  That's what boggles my mind about some people - they worry about fluctuations while they are still in the accumulation phase!  I cannot think of a bigger waste of time and energy.

Whether the market goes up, down or sideways, so what?  It's all just short term noise.  Look at the long term trends and you'll see the truth. 

And that truth is - top is in baby.  :P

They think the market is on it's way to tanking want to out gain the market by selling high and buying low.  This forum is full of optimizers, and when it feels obvious that things are going down, they think it's their chance to optimize and get a let up on others.  I'm staying strong, but I get it now...