Top is in

[nereo]

Tuna melt-up:
http://www.bumblebee.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/three-cheese-tuna-melt.jpg

Based on the distribution of the cheese above and below the tuna, I'd say that there was a simultaneous melt-up and melt-down. The results look delicious.

I hate tuna.  I'd prefer to go with a bacon terminology

"Boy, this market is really getting crispy!"

[Mr. Boh]

Looks like we are melting up again today.   How high can a melt up go?

All the way to the top.

[Bicycle_B]

A melt-up or end-phase of a bubble within the next 6 months to 2 years is likely, i.e., over 50%.

Wait a minute... some guy is predicting that there's a >50% chance this bull run will end in the next two years??!!
Color me shocked.

I'd also like to predict that there's a >50% chance that there's a >50% chance the superbowl will be won by either the patriots, eagles, steelers or vikings (or possibly the Jaguars, Saints, Falcons or Titans).

I'm also going to predict that Apple will announce a new iPhone sometime in the next 2 years, DJT will tweet something most people find inflammatory, and there will be a major natural disaster somewhere in the US.

You've got it all nailed down. Better go cash in!

I think he's saying the stock market will go up another 50% before it drops.

[anisotropy]

I hate tuna. 

NO WAY! Do you hate all tuna? Including Seared Ahi and Bluefin tuna sushi?

[dragoncar]

I hate tuna. 

NO WAY! Do you hate all tuna? Including Seared Ahi and Bluefin tuna sushi?

That's it, tuna is over.  Short BKK:TU, SELL SELL SELL

[nereo]

I hate tuna. 

NO WAY! Do you hate all tuna? Including Seared Ahi and Bluefin tuna sushi?

Yup, I hate the taste of all tuna.
Bluefin?  Meh gahds - even if I loved the flavor I'd never touch the stuff. Avoid!

[Exflyboy]

My reaction to today's market action...

"Holy shit!"

Top MUST be in now..:)

[aboatguy]

So in summary this is still not the top, just a small freeze in the melt up. 

OH for christ's sake - are we freezing up or down as we melt up? How we be both freezing and melting at the same time?  Or am I not thinking 4th dimensionally again? ("yeah, I have a real problem with that, doc"

Different freeze. 

noun: freeze; plural noun: freezes

    1.
    an act of holding or being held at a fixed level or in a fixed state.


   

[sol]

OH for christ's sake - are we freezing up or down as we melt up? How we be both freezing and melting at the same time? 

It's a lateral freeze down during the melt up.  Soon to be followed by the transverse falling bounce and the transient index inversion short, both of which are also strong sell signals in this buyer's market.

[ZiziPB]

OH for christ's sake - are we freezing up or down as we melt up? How we be both freezing and melting at the same time? 

It's a lateral freeze down during the melt up.  Soon to be followed by the transverse falling bounce and the transient index inversion short, both of which are also strong sell signals in this buyer's market.

I thought we were in a seller's market?

[Monocle Money Mouth]

OH for christ's sake - are we freezing up or down as we melt up? How we be both freezing and melting at the same time? 

It's a lateral freeze down during the melt up.  Soon to be followed by the transverse falling bounce and the transient index inversion short, both of which are also strong sell signals in this buyer's market.

Mmmm. Financial word salad :)

[nereo]

OH for christ's sake - are we freezing up or down as we melt up? How we be both freezing and melting at the same time? 

It's a lateral freeze down during the melt up.  Soon to be followed by the transverse falling bounce and the transient index inversion short, both of which are also strong sell signals in this buyer's market.

Thanks Sol - as usual your post is among the most informed and nuanced within a given thread.

[2Birds1Stone]

I don't know about you guys, but I liquidated all of my non taxable accounts into cash and bitcoin this afternoon.

The top is in for stocks, and the bottom is in for BTC.

Smell ya later.

[DoctorOctagon]

Trump's 20% corporate tax cut, the long-term low interest environment, and the reversion to the 800-year-mean of inflation (~1%) are all NOT priced into stocks.

Lots of fools selling and going to cash!!!

[aspiringnomad]

There you have it - we aren't melting up.  We're melting laterally.

You guys just aren’t thinking fourth dimensionally. We are melting through time

Great Scott!

Most righteous!

[dycker1978]

I think that thorstache has been right the whole time, we have just been reading it wrong.

The top is in.  Cash will not go higher, sell all of your cash and buy stocks!!!

That has to be what he meant?  Right!  Right?

[AdrianC]

A melt-up or end-phase of a bubble within the next 6 months to 2 years is likely, i.e., over 50%.

Wait a minute... some guy is predicting that there's a >50% chance this bull run will end in the next two years??!!
Color me shocked.

I'd also like to predict that there's a >50% chance that there's a >50% chance the superbowl will be won by either the patriots, eagles, steelers or vikings (or possibly the Jaguars, Saints, Falcons or Titans).

I'm also going to predict that Apple will announce a new iPhone sometime in the next 2 years, DJT will tweet something most people find inflammatory, and there will be a major natural disaster somewhere in the US.

Jeremy Grantham is predicting there's a >50% chance we see a melt-up.

Read the article. It’s quite interesting.

[Apple_Tango]

OH for christ's sake - are we freezing up or down as we melt up? How we be both freezing and melting at the same time? 

It's a lateral freeze down during the melt up.  Soon to be followed by the transverse falling bounce and the transient index inversion short, both of which are also strong sell signals in this buyer's market.

Pretty sure I’m making this my next signature. Excellent read on the impending freezing melty tuna.

[MrDelane]

I mentioned my method in an old post, it's momentum combined with other indicators. Momentum usually exits too early and joins too late so I do not see it as a viable strategy on its own.
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/dual-momentum-investing/msg1490347/#msg1490347

Sorry but I maintain my stance in that post and will not elaborate as long as it continues to work (who knows for how much longer)... However... the basic idea is that market does not move in a random fashion and is heavily influenced by the economics. This post from philosophical economics should give you an idea.

Note: it's really long and he doesn't really get into the "good part" until late in the post. Regardless, we arrived at similar conclusions independently even though we use different indicators.
http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2016/01/gtt/

p.s: We could discuss how the length of the bull market (where we are in a cycle) impacts the market though, even if every cycle is slightly different.

Cool.  Thanks for the links.
Interesting stuff, and I will try to make it through that post when I find the time (perhaps this weekend).

While I can understand not wanting to elaborate on your method, you have to understand that from an outsider perspective your message rings a bit hollow.  Essentially you're saying that at some point the market will drop (which is something just about anyone would agree with).  I suppose you go so far as to insinuate that it will be 'soon,' but are unable to define what 'soon' means or give us any clear indicators to watch for.  That said, it's obviously not your obligation to prove anything to anyone here - but it seems that without supporting evidence a blanket warning comes off as a bit toothless (no offense intended). 

You don't give us enough information to act on, or enough context or timeframe to look back on and determine whether you were right or wrong. 

Again, I do not give advice to people. My opinion is that people should do what they have always done (what they believe is right) until evidence clearly tells them otherwise. So for a passive investor, when he hears the trumpet, just stay put come what may. I will obviously run for the hill (bond, cash, shorting); one of us will be right and profit handsomely. It is then up to the person who got it wrong to make the decision if he wants to change his ways.

That's fair, I suppose.  Though I would say that until cycles repeat and outcomes can be replicated multiple times we should stay away from using terms like "right" and "wrong" and instead perhaps use terms like "lucky" and "unlucky."

[anisotropy]

While I can understand not wanting to elaborate on your method, you have to understand that from an outsider perspective your message rings a bit hollow.  Essentially you're saying that at some point the market will drop (which is something just about anyone would agree with).  I suppose you go so far as to insinuate that it will be 'soon,' but are unable to define what 'soon' means or give us any clear indicators to watch for.  That said, it's obviously not your obligation to prove anything to anyone here - but it seems that without supporting evidence a blanket warning comes off as a bit toothless (no offense intended). 

You don't give us enough information to act on, or enough context or timeframe to look back on and determine whether you were right or wrong. 

That's fair, I suppose.  Though I would say that until cycles repeat and outcomes can be replicated multiple times we should stay away from using terms like "right" and "wrong" and instead perhaps use terms like "lucky" and "unlucky."

Sorry what? I have been consistently bullish as can be seen in my posts. I even stated "to the moon!" here when the upward trend was briefly broken (relatively weak) back in June:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/has-the-market-lost-its-mind/msg1575172/#msg1575172
Note: I do not give advices.

Since I have clearly not given the sell signal yet, I do not understand why many members here assume that I am bearish or carry a bearish message. Yes I am saying that at some point the market will drop, but as you said, is something just about anyone would agree, does that mean everyone is carrying a bearish message? Or people just assume market timing = being bearish?

If it is the "soon" part that you took issue with, all I can say is certain indicators have taken the turn for the worse. Unfortunately, as the details relate to my method I will therefore not elaborate. If you seek supporting evidence.... consider my bullishness in the past and how that turned out since I made the sentiment public. After all, it follows the same logic that a guy who could call the top should also be able to call the bottom; a guy who can spot a rally should also be able to notice a decline. I fully intend on "calling the top" here should I find it at our doorsteps (after I get out, of course).

A market timing method that recognizes market strengths when conventional methods scream sell (ie, thorstach) alleviates a big problem of any market timing strategy - missing out. In this regard, my short record is nothing less than stellar if I may say so myself.
 
You could argue that 1 or 2 year is not enough time period to make a proper assessment, and I agree with you completely. Even though 2015/2016 turned out alright for me (beat index using index funds via mostly timing), I still think a lot of it could be just luck, as I mentioned here:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/i-did-it!-i-beat-the-index-using-index-funds!-(bragging)/msg1336044/#msg1336044
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/i-did-it!-i-beat-the-index-using-index-funds!-(bragging)/msg1807219/#msg1807219

Luck is a funny thing. Buffett himself alluded to luck being something more when he wryly mentioned a group of investors in Omaha was able to beat the index year after year. He talked about luck and other things, such as intellectual origin.
https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/articles/columbia-business/superinvestors

A full business cycle can last over 10 years, heck, a full-on bull market could last over 20 years. While it is natural to take a wait and see attitude when it's something we are not comfortable with, we need to ask ourselves, how many 20 years do we have in our lives?

[MrDelane]

Sorry what? I have been consistently bullish as can be seen in my posts. I even stated "to the moon!" here when the upward trend was briefly broken (relatively weak) back in June:

Apologies - I had the impression that while you were bullish in the past you were changing your outlook now.  Comments like, "a great and terrible storm is on the horizon, it is coming," made me think that you were bearish for the 'near' future (and left me with the impression that you felt the drop was imminent).

My mistake.

I fully intend on "calling the top" here should I find it at our doorsteps (after I get out, of course).

That sounds great.
And in that case this conversation should probably be tabled until that point.
Apologies for misconstruing what you were trying to say.

[Retire-Canada]

I was talking to my barber and he mentioned it's going to be classic melt up.

[DarkandStormy]

S&P 2,800 incoming...

[Retire-Canada]

Dang! I might get to join the tail end of the class of 2018! ;)

[nereo]

Dang! I might get to join the tail end of the class of 2018! ;)

Something I've been wondering... can we start a graduation ceremony for the newly FI/RE?

[Retire-Canada]

[brooklynguy]

RC, that looks like a frozen inverse melt-down, not a right-sided thawing melt-up, which is what we're in now.  Plus, the current market is obviously not strawberry but rocky road.

[Retire-Canada]

RC, that looks like a frozen inverse melt-down, not a right-sided thawing melt-up, which is what we're in now.  Plus, the current market is obviously not strawberry but rocky road.

Shit. See this is why I come here. Amazing information like this! Thank you BG. :)

[Clean Shaven]

RC, that looks like a frozen inverse melt-down, not a right-sided thawing melt-up, which is what we're in now.  Plus, the current market is obviously not strawberry but rocky road.

So what you're saying is... Have a second scoop?

[Retire-Canada]

So what you're saying is... Have a second scoop?

Yes. Always MOAR! Always!

[dividendman]

Wow... waffle ice cream taco.... my three favorite foods combined. This surely means that top is in.

[Travis]

At first glance I thought that was the poop emoji.

What we need now is a reverse funnel concept to catch all that melting awesomeness.

[anisotropy]

Never had a waffle ice cream taco before.... it looks very messy.... how do you eat such a thing?

Mr. D: Ya let's talk later. The friendly and conniving resident prophet will resume the sermons using the same structures, commonly found in religious scriptures worldwide.

[nereo]

Never had a waffle ice cream taco before.... it looks very messy.... how do you eat such a thing?

The same way anyone eats any kind of taco...  It's bliss.  Just dont' settle for the mass-market freezer-section pre-wrapped POC. A good waffle ice cream taco should have the waffle-taco made on-site within a few hours.  It's bascially the same as a waffle-cone, but in a different format.

[Maenad]

Great, now I'm craving an ice cream sundae.

[frugledoc]

While I can understand not wanting to elaborate on your method, you have to understand that from an outsider perspective your message rings a bit hollow.  Essentially you're saying that at some point the market will drop (which is something just about anyone would agree with).  I suppose you go so far as to insinuate that it will be 'soon,' but are unable to define what 'soon' means or give us any clear indicators to watch for.  That said, it's obviously not your obligation to prove anything to anyone here - but it seems that without supporting evidence a blanket warning comes off as a bit toothless (no offense intended). 

You don't give us enough information to act on, or enough context or timeframe to look back on and determine whether you were right or wrong. 

That's fair, I suppose.  Though I would say that until cycles repeat and outcomes can be replicated multiple times we should stay away from using terms like "right" and "wrong" and instead perhaps use terms like "lucky" and "unlucky."

Sorry what? I have been consistently bullish as can be seen in my posts. I even stated "to the moon!" here when the upward trend was briefly broken (relatively weak) back in June:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/has-the-market-lost-its-mind/msg1575172/#msg1575172
Note: I do not give advices.

Since I have clearly not given the sell signal yet, I do not understand why many members here assume that I am bearish or carry a bearish message. Yes I am saying that at some point the market will drop, but as you said, is something just about anyone would agree, does that mean everyone is carrying a bearish message? Or people just assume market timing = being bearish?

If it is the "soon" part that you took issue with, all I can say is certain indicators have taken the turn for the worse. Unfortunately, as the details relate to my method I will therefore not elaborate. If you seek supporting evidence.... consider my bullishness in the past and how that turned out since I made the sentiment public. After all, it follows the same logic that a guy who could call the top should also be able to call the bottom; a guy who can spot a rally should also be able to notice a decline. I fully intend on "calling the top" here should I find it at our doorsteps (after I get out, of course).

A market timing method that recognizes market strengths when conventional methods scream sell (ie, thorstach) alleviates a big problem of any market timing strategy - missing out. In this regard, my short record is nothing less than stellar if I may say so myself.
 
You could argue that 1 or 2 year is not enough time period to make a proper assessment, and I agree with you completely. Even though 2015/2016 turned out alright for me (beat index using index funds via mostly timing), I still think a lot of it could be just luck, as I mentioned here:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/i-did-it!-i-beat-the-index-using-index-funds!-(bragging)/msg1336044/#msg1336044
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/i-did-it!-i-beat-the-index-using-index-funds!-(bragging)/msg1807219/#msg1807219

Luck is a funny thing. Buffett himself alluded to luck being something more when he wryly mentioned a group of investors in Omaha was able to beat the index year after year. He talked about luck and other things, such as intellectual origin.
https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/articles/columbia-business/superinvestors

A full business cycle can last over 10 years, heck, a full-on bull market could last over 20 years. While it is natural to take a wait and see attitude when it's something we are not comfortable with, we need to ask ourselves, how many 20 years do we have in our lives?

Dude,  you know nothing.  Same as everybody else. 

[Retire-Canada]

Never had a waffle ice cream taco before.... it looks very messy.... how do you eat such a thing?

If you have to ask it's not for you. Stick to your passive ice cream cone indexing.

[Clean Shaven]

Never had a waffle ice cream taco before.... it looks very messy.... how do you eat such a thing?

The same way anyone eats any kind of taco...  It's bliss.  Just dont' settle for the mass-market freezer-section pre-wrapped POC. A good waffle ice cream taco should have the waffle-taco made on-site within a few hours.  It's bascially the same as a waffle-cone, but in a different format.

I've only ever had the mass-produced one -- the Chaco Taco.  I had no idea this was available as a freshly-made waffle cone-like thing... going to have to find one when the weather warms up!

[boarder42]

Never had a waffle ice cream taco before.... it looks very messy.... how do you eat such a thing?

The same way anyone eats any kind of taco...  It's bliss.  Just dont' settle for the mass-market freezer-section pre-wrapped POC. A good waffle ice cream taco should have the waffle-taco made on-site within a few hours.  It's bascially the same as a waffle-cone, but in a different format.

I've only ever had the mass-produced one -- the Chaco Taco.  I had no idea this was available as a freshly-made waffle cone-like thing... going to have to find one when the weather warms up!

i've eaten those str8 off the line - 1000000x better than anything in the store.  the shell is still crunchy.  as well as magnum ice cream bars much better off the line - the carmel is still gooey in the triple layer carmel ones.

the top is in - i've divested from everything except my ice cream company shares - b/c with global warming they are going to start sky rocketing.

[aboatguy]

2786 and the top is not in



<iframe width="854" height="480" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/_EvGn22Mplg" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>


https://youtu.be/2urpAl081kY

[GreatLaker]

I'd prefer to go with a bacon terminology

"Boy, this market is really getting crispy!"

That bacon slice has multiple tops, but no discernable upward or downward trend. Definitely a sideways slice with multiple tops.

[MrGreen]

I'd prefer to go with a bacon terminology

"Boy, this market is really getting crispy!"

That bacon slice has multiple tops, but no discernable upward or downward trend. Definitely a sideways slice with multiple tops.

Otherwise what's known as stagnant bacon.

[nereo]

I'd prefer to go with a bacon terminology

"Boy, this market is really getting crispy!"

That bacon slice has multiple tops, but no discernable upward or downward trend. Definitely a sideways slice with multiple tops.

Otherwise what's known as stagnant bacon.

Would that honestly be a bad thing?

[JAYSLOL]

I'd prefer to go with a bacon terminology

"Boy, this market is really getting crispy!"

That bacon slice has multiple tops, but no discernable upward or downward trend. Definitely a sideways slice with multiple tops.

Otherwise what's known as stagnant bacon.

Would that honestly be a bad thing?

If you are accumulating bacon, no it would be great. 

Bacon 'stache!  A whole new meaning to Mmm

[Optimiser]

I'd prefer to go with a bacon terminology

"Boy, this market is really getting crispy!"

That bacon slice has multiple tops, but no discernable upward or downward trend. Definitely a sideways slice with multiple tops.

Otherwise what's known as stagnant bacon.

Would that honestly be a bad thing?

If you are accumulating bacon, no it would be great. 

Bacon 'stache!  A whole new meaning to Mmm

I'd like to dollar cost average my way into that!

[nereo]

I'd prefer to go with a bacon terminology

"Boy, this market is really getting crispy!"

That bacon slice has multiple tops, but no discernable upward or downward trend. Definitely a sideways slice with multiple tops.

Otherwise what's known as stagnant bacon.

Would that honestly be a bad thing?

If you are accumulating bacon, no it would be great. 

Bacon 'stache!  A whole new meaning to Mmm

I'd like to dollar cost average my way into that!

Studies show it’s better to lump-sum into bacon, if you have that option available to you.

Roughly 80% of the time the result is (wait for it...)... more bacon!

[dragoncar]

I'd prefer to go with a bacon terminology

"Boy, this market is really getting crispy!"

That bacon slice has multiple tops, but no discernable upward or downward trend. Definitely a sideways slice with multiple tops.

Otherwise what's known as stagnant bacon.

Would that honestly be a bad thing?

If you are accumulating bacon, no it would be great. 

Bacon 'stache!  A whole new meaning to Mmm

I'd like to dollar cost average my way into that!

Studies show it’s better to lump-sum into bacon, if you have that option available to you.

Roughly 80% of the time the result is (wait for it...)... more bacon!

I know it’s an unpopular opinion around here, but y’all should consider adding a little cheese to your portfolio.  Yeah, technically all bacon will maximize the total amount of bacon consumed over your lifetime, but it doesn’t account for the increased chance that sometimes you will run out of bacon completely.  I’d rather have a little bacon everyday than a ton of bacon when I die

[DS]

I know it’s an unpopular opinion around here, but y’all should consider adding a little cheese to your portfolio.  Yeah, technically all bacon will maximize the total amount of bacon consumed over your lifetime, but it doesn’t account for the increased chance that sometimes you will run out of bacon completely.  I’d rather have a little bacon everyday than a ton of bacon when I die

Clearly a bubble and very irresponsible advice. Sure, the cheese is great technology but there are so many cheeses available it just doesn't make sense right now.

[dycker1978]

Toasted cheese and bacon for super it is!

[JAYSLOL]

Adding some cheese to your Bacon is ok, as long as you are following your IBS (Ingesting Bacon Statement).