Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 1436318 times)

mies

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6100 on: February 27, 2020, 03:00:00 PM »
Have to say it is tempting to try and time the bottom though. I fell for it this week--$5k in on Monday, 3K in on Tues, $1.5K in on Wed and $1K in today haha. In retrospect should have been the exact opposite.

You'll cut yourself trying to catch that falling knife.

Are we officially in a correction now? I haven't had time to do the math.

Maenad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6101 on: February 27, 2020, 03:02:43 PM »
We're all doomed. DOOMED I tell you.

Homo Sapiens Top is In.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6102 on: February 27, 2020, 03:05:22 PM »
Have to say it is tempting to try and time the bottom though. I fell for it this week--$5k in on Monday, 3K in on Tues, $1.5K in on Wed and $1K in today haha. In retrospect should have been the exact opposite.

You'll cut yourself trying to catch that falling knife.

Are we officially in a correction now? I haven't had time to do the math.

Yes, way past 10% down from the TOP

Rural

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6103 on: February 27, 2020, 03:12:10 PM »
Looks like I'll be timing the market as I get paid at the end of the month and contributions go in automatically.

maizeman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6104 on: February 27, 2020, 03:18:38 PM »
Wait but how do we know the difference between a brown bear market and a grizzly bear market?


Alternatepriorities

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6105 on: February 27, 2020, 03:21:59 PM »
On the bright side, no need to re balance my stock-bond portfolio, the market is doing that for me :)

Nice of the market to take care of that for you. I was thinking I should rebalance US to International last week but was too busy/lazy to do so.

BigMoneyJim

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6106 on: February 27, 2020, 03:23:46 PM »
I'll be "market timing" by not topping off my was-2-year-cash-cushion for two years or until a new top is in, whichever comes first.

(Market crash within my first few months of retirement was one of my bigger fears. Fear is up. LXXXIV-CXI-CXII is CV-CX.)

I may also consider stopping dividend reinvestment. With some math and then a cojones check.

BigMoneyJim

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6107 on: February 27, 2020, 03:25:11 PM »
Wait but how do we know the difference between a brown bear market and a grizzly bear market?



Well, no, only 0.4% - 2% of us. Each year. (In addition to the annual flu deaths and other customary annual deaths.)

maizeman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6108 on: February 27, 2020, 03:27:19 PM »
Wait but how do we know the difference between a brown bear market and a grizzly bear market?



Well, no, only 0.4% - 2% of us. Each year. (In addition to the annual flu deaths and other customary annual deaths.)

I see what you're saying, but you have to think long term, not just about this year or the next.

We're all going to die (eventually)! ;-)

Alternatepriorities

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6109 on: February 27, 2020, 03:31:01 PM »
Wait but how do we know the difference between a brown bear market and a grizzly bear market?



In light of recent human/bear market conflicts, the SEC is advising investors and speculators to take extra precautions and keep alert for bear markets while in the field. We advise that investors wear noisy little bells on their clothing so as not to startle the bear markets that aren't expecting them.  We also advise investors to carry pepper spray with them in case of an encounter with a bear market.

It is also a good idea to watch out for fresh signs of bear market activity.  Investors should recognize the difference between black and grizzly bear market droppings.  Black bear market droppings are smaller and contains a lot of berry seeds and squirrel fur. Grizzly bear market droppings are full of little bells and smell like pepper spray.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6110 on: February 27, 2020, 03:43:56 PM »
Have to say it is tempting to try and time the bottom though. I fell for it this week--$5k in on Monday, 3K in on Tues, $1.5K in on Wed and $1K in today haha. In retrospect should have been the exact opposite.

You'll cut yourself trying to catch that falling knife.

Are we officially in a correction now? I haven't had time to do the math.

Yeah, we're in a correction. S+P is under 3000, it's high close was somewhere around 3386.  So lessee.  Correction is 10% or 3047. Bear is 20% or 2708. Also, largest one day drop in the Dow.  At least till the next one.   



« Last Edit: February 27, 2020, 03:57:02 PM by Buffaloski Boris »

wienerdog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6111 on: February 27, 2020, 03:56:10 PM »
Is the options guy kicking himself in the butt yet since Top was in?

You talking about me with the March $325 puts I was holding?  My butt is sore from all the kicking.

This thread is getting not as funny as we continue to drop.   It will be interesting to see how chipper we are when we are dusting off the DOW 20,000 hats again.

Drops are fun.  It lets you know if you investment policy is correct.  ;>) I still couldn't figure out how those options worked.  If you sold today how much was it worth?

This is only week one folks.  If this is a real recession (and I'm beginning to think it will be), this is going to drag on for months...

Those options are beginning to look like a winning lottery ticket that got destroyed in the wash machine...  bought for $3.30 and now worth $22.50+.  Multiply that gain by 100(shares per contract) x 100 (contracts)...  $190,000+

Sorry Roland.... but where are we at now ?

Edit: Approaching $275K?

No way!  So you are saying if Roland held on and cashed out today he would have $275k on a $330 bet?

Alternatepriorities

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6112 on: February 27, 2020, 03:57:19 PM »
Yeah, we're in a correction. S+P is under 3000, it's high close was somewhere around 3386.  So lessee.  Correction is 10% or 3047. Bear is 20% or 2708.

I hope traders will at least have the decency to break 2708 if we go anywhere close so that the talking heads will have to stop calling it "the longest bull in history". None of last times 19.5%! Bear or Bust!

Alternatepriorities

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6113 on: February 27, 2020, 04:00:34 PM »
Is the options guy kicking himself in the butt yet since Top was in?

You talking about me with the March $325 puts I was holding?  My butt is sore from all the kicking.

This thread is getting not as funny as we continue to drop.   It will be interesting to see how chipper we are when we are dusting off the DOW 20,000 hats again.

Drops are fun.  It lets you know if you investment policy is correct.  ;>) I still couldn't figure out how those options worked.  If you sold today how much was it worth?

This is only week one folks.  If this is a real recession (and I'm beginning to think it will be), this is going to drag on for months...

Those options are beginning to look like a winning lottery ticket that got destroyed in the wash machine...  bought for $3.30 and now worth $22.50+.  Multiply that gain by 100(shares per contract) x 100 (contracts)...  $190,000+

Sorry Roland.... but where are we at now ?

Edit: Approaching $275K?

No way!  So you are saying if Roland held on and cashed out today he would have $275k on a $330 bet?

I recall it being a 33k bet? Still one heck of a return IF you time the top just right... And as we all know, only the great thorstach can do that.

mies

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6114 on: February 27, 2020, 04:03:40 PM »
Have to say it is tempting to try and time the bottom though. I fell for it this week--$5k in on Monday, 3K in on Tues, $1.5K in on Wed and $1K in today haha. In retrospect should have been the exact opposite.

You'll cut yourself trying to catch that falling knife.

Are we officially in a correction now? I haven't had time to do the math.

Yeah, we're in a correction. S+P is under 3000, it's high close was somewhere around 3386.  So lessee.  Correction is 10% or 3047. Bear is 20% or 2708. Also, largest one day drop in the Dow.  At least till the next one.

2708 or bust! Come on skittish traders! Daddy needs a good discount for next weeks 401(k) contribution and taxable account purchase.

wienerdog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6115 on: February 27, 2020, 04:06:22 PM »
Does anyone find it odd CXSE is only down 5% over the past 5 days?

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6116 on: February 27, 2020, 04:12:24 PM »

2708 or bust! Come on skittish traders! Daddy needs a good discount for next weeks 401(k) contribution and taxable account purchase.

Oh yeah.  To paraphrase Warren Buffett, he was an undersexed man in a harem. 

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6117 on: February 27, 2020, 05:08:08 PM »
Sky is falling! I know it because it just got dark outside.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6118 on: February 27, 2020, 05:23:41 PM »
Where is the Great Thorstache??!!

Oh mighty one, who predicted the top just four weeks ago (close enough for horse shoes, hand granades and the stock market)!

Oh seer of the markets!  Your 23rd prediction has been vindicated!

The previous 22 false tops have all been forgotten!

What wisdom have ye to share now??!!


Look to his coming on the first light of the fifth day, at dawn look to the east

« Last Edit: February 27, 2020, 05:28:48 PM by dragoncar »

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6119 on: February 27, 2020, 05:43:14 PM »
obviously the top is no longer in. 

thorstach

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6120 on: February 27, 2020, 09:10:19 PM »
there it is

Mr Mark

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6121 on: February 27, 2020, 09:13:08 PM »
there it is

the great Oracle has spoken! The Top Is IN!

Can someone workout delta to the first TOP?

Facemask stocks are up.

Mr Mark

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6122 on: February 27, 2020, 09:17:18 PM »



Oh, and we're all going to die.

I love the GIF Maizeman

itchyfeet

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6123 on: February 27, 2020, 09:26:22 PM »
there it is

You might be right for the next year or 2

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6124 on: February 27, 2020, 10:15:22 PM »
there it is

Finally!  I was honestly starting to worry you got the virus or something. 

there it is is in. 

Monerexia

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6125 on: February 27, 2020, 11:00:44 PM »
Have to say it is tempting to try and time the bottom though. I fell for it this week--$5k in on Monday, 3K in on Tues, $1.5K in on Wed and $1K in today haha. In retrospect should have been the exact opposite.

You'll cut yourself trying to catch that falling knife.

Are we officially in a correction now? I haven't had time to do the math.

Ha so true! And of course all that mental energy-okay not too awfully much--and none of this will make a whit of difference in 15 years. Plus um S&P up over 21% for year ending 31 Jan so still some wiggle room.
« Last Edit: February 27, 2020, 11:06:08 PM by Monerexia »

vand

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6126 on: February 27, 2020, 11:58:04 PM »
Futures are suggesting another ~3% gap down - because we need some FRIDAY FUN!!

marty998

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6127 on: February 28, 2020, 12:40:36 AM »
Does anyone find it odd CXSE is only down 5% over the past 5 days?

The Chinese market index? Funny that - I'll bet anyone pushing the sell button on their stocks using their government approved brokerage account is probably going to be hauled away and disappear for a very long time.

They'll also get a very bad social credit score, and then have what ever sell proceeds from the shares confiscated.

Hence their market not falling?

Alternatepriorities

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6128 on: February 28, 2020, 01:01:20 AM »
Futures are suggesting another ~3% gap down - because we need some FRIDAY FUN!!

But the prophet has spoken? Doesn't that require the market begin it's recovery tomorrow so that the top can once again be in?

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6129 on: February 28, 2020, 03:21:08 AM »
Futures are suggesting another ~3% gap down - because we need some FRIDAY FUN!!


Asia down and Europe trending down 3-4%.  CBOE VIX was 39.16 yesterday.  Itís also the last trading day of the month. Looking an awful lot like yesterday.

UnleashHell

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6130 on: February 28, 2020, 04:16:58 AM »
thorstash has spoken. thank you!!!

mies

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6131 on: February 28, 2020, 04:51:16 AM »
Have to say it is tempting to try and time the bottom though. I fell for it this week--$5k in on Monday, 3K in on Tues, $1.5K in on Wed and $1K in today haha. In retrospect should have been the exact opposite.

You'll cut yourself trying to catch that falling knife.

Are we officially in a correction now? I haven't had time to do the math.

Ha so true! And of course all that mental energy-okay not too awfully much--and none of this will make a whit of difference in 15 years. Plus um S&P up over 21% for year ending 31 Jan so still some wiggle room.

I tried buying dips in my taxable account a couple of years ago and gave up. Itís too stressful. Now I buy a set amount every two weeks on Thursday. I only buy weekly if I have extra money from selling stuff or have received a bonus at work. I just sold some stuff this week so I was able to buy yesterday. I also have a referral bonus and profit sharing coming soon, so I should be able to buy weekly for the next couple of months.

I know itís usually better to invest a lump sum, but we still donít know how much further the markets will drop or if yesterday was the worst of it and the recovery will start today. Dollar cost averaging may not be optimal, but I think itís better than sitting on cash forever waiting for the perfect moment to buy. The perfect moment may pass quickly and Iím a firm believer that perfect is the enemy of the good.

I agree. In the long run, this correction probably wonít mean much. Itís still a good opportunity to buy.

matchewed

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6132 on: February 28, 2020, 05:05:17 AM »

wienerdog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6133 on: February 28, 2020, 06:28:31 AM »
there it is

Wait which one is is?  The April 11th OG post called Top at 2353 for the S&P.    Are you talking about a different Top?  Please specify as I can't remember how many Tops you called now.

habaneroNorway

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6134 on: February 28, 2020, 06:36:15 AM »

Are you kidding me?   As of this moment the Dow is down about 918 points, or 1.63% for the year.   Yawn.

Wake me at 10% down for the year.

Wakie-wakie, Dow down about 11% for the year now. Time to get up. Top fastest down 10% from ATH is in. Top sleep is over.


wienerdog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6135 on: February 28, 2020, 06:41:42 AM »
Does anyone find it odd CXSE is only down 5% over the past 5 days?

The Chinese market index? Funny that - I'll bet anyone pushing the sell button on their stocks using their government approved brokerage account is probably going to be hauled away and disappear for a very long time.

They'll also get a very bad social credit score, and then have what ever sell proceeds from the shares confiscated.

Hence their market not falling?

Their tech index is doing even better and the virus as been more of a problem over there longer.  It just seems like it is overblown here.

Chart

PathtoFIRE

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6136 on: February 28, 2020, 07:08:10 AM »

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6137 on: February 28, 2020, 07:39:21 AM »
there it is

I believe there it was...

Yeah, not much of an Oracle since we've lost over 10% before he tells us we should've sold at the Top.  I'm going back to tea leaves.

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6138 on: February 28, 2020, 07:40:21 AM »
Is bond top in yet?

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6139 on: February 28, 2020, 07:40:43 AM »
there it is

Guess bottom is in, now?

Apparently not!  It looks like the market is developing thorstach resistance, weíve overused him for minor corrections and now we are paying the price with this new strain of thorstach-resistant market!  Weíre all gonna die!

FIRE 20/20

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6140 on: February 28, 2020, 07:42:09 AM »
there it is

The great thorstach (blessed be thy name) has gifted us with the knowledge that the Tag Team Top is in:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffCEr327W44

RWD

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6141 on: February 28, 2020, 07:49:54 AM »
BND top is in.

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6142 on: February 28, 2020, 07:51:50 AM »
Wait but how do we know the difference between a brown bear market and a grizzly bear market?



One is actually orange.

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6143 on: February 28, 2020, 08:12:28 AM »
there it is

We must mediate on these wise words, for the is a great deal of knowledge hidden in these three words.

'There' - is this to mean the markets, or the forum, or our deeper cognative selves?

'it' - one might assume this pronoun refers to the 'Top', as in 'the top is in' - but I'm less convinced.  Could be something much deeper,much more important.

'is'.  Just as it is important to stop and be, sometimes, it just 'is'.  Remember that, my fellow mustachians.

I hereby submit that we reverently refer to this divine message simply as TII (pronounced "teeeeeee.... with a very long eee sound at the end).

Now, where's the sacramental wine?

vand

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6144 on: February 28, 2020, 08:27:58 AM »
Well those of us who are gutted at missing out from all those gains since 2009 migh get our time again soon, because at this rate the market should be back at those prices by this time next month :-P

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6145 on: February 28, 2020, 08:41:29 AM »
there it is

We must mediate on these wise words, for the is a great deal of knowledge hidden in these three words.

'There' - is this to mean the markets, or the forum, or our deeper cognative selves?

'it' - one might assume this pronoun refers to the 'Top', as in 'the top is in' - but I'm less convinced.  Could be something much deeper,much more important.

'is'.  Just as it is important to stop and be, sometimes, it just 'is'.  Remember that, my fellow mustachians.

I hereby submit that we reverently refer to this divine message simply as TII (pronounced "teeeeeee.... with a very long eee sound at the end).

Now, where's the sacramental wine?

This is pettifoggery, and I for one will not partake. Focus on the top, only the top, and always the top.

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6146 on: February 28, 2020, 08:42:16 AM »
Whoops. Sorry. The short term trading computers appear to have gotten a little virus causing them to sell sell sell. Anyone tracking whatís happening with gold these days?

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6147 on: February 28, 2020, 08:44:38 AM »
Well those of us who are gutted at missing out from all those gains since 2009 migh get our time again soon, because at this rate the market should be back at those prices by this time next month :-P

I wouldnít hold your breath.  Iíd love to be buying at those prices, but if the market really did drop to 2009 levels by next month I doubt many of us would have jobs to buy cheap shares with. 

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6148 on: February 28, 2020, 09:10:02 AM »
This is pettifoggery, and I for one will not partake. Focus on the top, only the top, and always the top.

It might be a bit of tomfollery, or possibly even be a bit of shinanegans, but are you really so hostile towards me as to label it pettifoggery? 
I'm hurt!

TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6149 on: February 28, 2020, 09:24:20 AM »
there it is

What? The market is down nearly 15% from the peak and NOW you come back?