Top is in

[OurTown]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TSZMqMVER_Q

The top was in in the late 70s.

[dougules]

I'm looking at the S&P 500 for the last 30 days and I'm confused - the top WASN'T in??  But people said it WAS.  Oh dear, this stock market stuff is just too confusing.

Just ignore this thread if you're looking for actual information.  If you read back through you will see that anybody that thinks they can call the top of the market has been quite wrong.  A lot of this thread is just people having a laugh about folks who think they can make market timing work. 

It's actually fairly simple.  Buy diversified low-cost mutual funds when you have money you don't need to spend in the short term, then sell them when you need money to spend.  Ignore the S&P 500, the Dow, the news, the naysayers, the yaysayers, and anybody else that thinks they know what the near future will bring.  In the long term the market will be just fine.

Oh I know.  I was just playing along with the rest of the snark in this thread :)

Well played.  I actually got nosey and looked at some of your other posts trying to figure out if you were serious or just snarking.  I guessed wrong. 

[Tyson]

I'm looking at the S&P 500 for the last 30 days and I'm confused - the top WASN'T in??  But people said it WAS.  Oh dear, this stock market stuff is just too confusing.

Just ignore this thread if you're looking for actual information.  If you read back through you will see that anybody that thinks they can call the top of the market has been quite wrong.  A lot of this thread is just people having a laugh about folks who think they can make market timing work. 

It's actually fairly simple.  Buy diversified low-cost mutual funds when you have money you don't need to spend in the short term, then sell them when you need money to spend.  Ignore the S&P 500, the Dow, the news, the naysayers, the yaysayers, and anybody else that thinks they know what the near future will bring.  In the long term the market will be just fine.

Oh I know.  I was just playing along with the rest of the snark in this thread :)

Well played.  I actually got nosey and looked at some of your other posts trying to figure out if you were serious or just snarking.  I guessed wrong.

That's one thing I really like about the MMM community - our first instinct is to help.  Which is both rare and awesome.

[JAYSLOL]

I'm looking at the S&P 500 for the last 30 days and I'm confused - the top WASN'T in??  But people said it WAS.  Oh dear, this stock market stuff is just too confusing.

Just ignore this thread if you're looking for actual information.  If you read back through you will see that anybody that thinks they can call the top of the market has been quite wrong.  A lot of this thread is just people having a laugh about folks who think they can make market timing work. 

It's actually fairly simple.  Buy diversified low-cost mutual funds when you have money you don't need to spend in the short term, then sell them when you need money to spend.  Ignore the S&P 500, the Dow, the news, the naysayers, the yaysayers, and anybody else that thinks they know what the near future will bring.  In the long term the market will be just fine.

Oh I know.  I was just playing along with the rest of the snark in this thread :)

[wienerdog]

Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

http://www.businessinsider.com/vix-volatility-trader-50-cent-lost-197-million-betting-on-market-meltdown-2017-12

Thorstach that you?

[talltexan]

50 cent can just release another album and make it all back.

[Optimiser]

50 cent can just release another album and make it all back.

50 cent is not actually 50 cent.

[nereo]

50 cent can just release another album and make it all back.

50 cent is not actually 50 cent.

...then what is 50 cent?

[aspiringnomad]

50 cent can just release another album and make it all back.

50 cent is not actually 50 cent.

[anisotropy]

No sermon this month, I am too busy with other stuffs.... but it appears the melt up scenario I brought up in October (reply #939) is upon us. May [insert entity of choice] have mercy on us all.

[frugalnacho]

No sermon this month, I am too busy with other stuffs.... but it appears the melt up scenario I brought up in October (reply #939) is upon us. May [insert entity of choice] have mercy on us all.

In other words the top is in

[anisotropy]

No sermon this month, I am too busy with other stuffs.... but it appears the melt up scenario I brought up in October (reply #939) is upon us. May [insert entity of choice] have mercy on us all.

In other words the top is in

nay, melt up, not melt down.

[Mr. Boh]

50 cent can just release another album and make it all back.

50 cent is not actually 50 cent.

This really cracked me up.

Oh yeah top is in!

[aspiringnomad]

50 cent can just release another album and make it all back.

50 cent is not actually 50 cent.

This really cracked me up.

Oh yeah top is in!

It's oddly hypnotic. Kinda like this entire thread.

[aboatguy]

2675 is it the top or just another false peak?
False peak is my prediction

[Apple_Tango]

It’s downhill from here. Top in.

[Heckler]

2675 is it the top or just another false peak?
False peak is my prediction

https://www.schaeffersresearch.com/content/analysis/2017/11/14/the-s-p-is-doing-this-for-the-first-time-in-years

November 14, 2017  - From current levels, another 3.71% rally for the broad-market barometer over the next three months would place the S&P around 2,675 -- deep into uncharted territory.

Schaeffer predicted 2675 by February 2018.   So yeah, no one knows.
( just a random google search on my part)

[phil22]

found a s&p 500 chart on yahoo finance where you can set the Y axis to log scale.  if you draw a highly accurate and highly revealing trend line, as i have done, and try to include past bubbles and recessions and corrections, you can clearly see that the top may be in but we are also clearly not in some huge bubble.

[retireatbirth]

Tax reform is done. Top is in. Sell now!

[Exflyboy]

Tax reform is done. Top is in. Sell now!

Shit!.. really?..;)

[phil22]

Tax reform is done. Top is in. Sell now!

Shit!.. really?..;)

slashing the corporate tax rate means the top is probably not in... right?

[sherr]

Tax reform is done. Top is in. Sell now!

Shit!.. really?..;)

slashing the corporate tax rate means the top is probably not in... right?

Sorry to bring a serious answer into this thread (you started it!) but the top may still be in. Theoretically an efficient market would already have priced-in the advantages from the tax bill. Republicans have even been using that logic to pressure each other into voting for it; "The expectation of the tax bill has been partially responsible for the market run-up! We have to pass it now or the market will crash and people will blame us!"

How much of that is actually true is hard to say. So don't let politics dampen your top-calling.

[capitalninja]

How has this thread not died yet?

[DavidAnnArbor]

Wealthy investors were defrauded in this Ponzi scheme.

Had they simply invested in a Vanguard like total stock market index the investors would have been far better off.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/he-stole-dollar100-million-from-his-clients-now-he’s-living-in-luxury-on-the-côte-d’azur/ar-BBGWnSv?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartanntp

[RWD]

How has this thread not died yet?

Because we keep topping the top!

[meatgrinder]

100% out of the market and all in GLD.  Going to the gun store today.

[Retire-Canada]

100% out of the market and all in GLD.  Going to the gun store today.

Don't forget the sardines!

[Davids]

S&P less than 10 points away from 2700 right now.

[BTDretire]

I wonder how many posters will be in this thread if we have a 20% correction.
 The Top is Not in, yet.

UUh, we can have a "The Bottom is in" thread.
 For that we can even pick numbers!
 I say 2,376 on the S&P.
See ya there.

[dividendman]

I wonder how many posters will be in this thread if we have a 20% correction.

The question isn't if, it's when. But... the whole point of the thread and the piling on is that if we do get a 20% drop after a 30% gain and we were told the top is in 30% ago... we lost a lot.

Already Vanguard total stock market (VTI) is up 20% YTD. Vanguard FTSE All-World Ex US is up 23% YTD. Add a couple more % for dividends. So yeah, 20% drop? doesn't seem too bad to me.

Anyway, the top is in now for sure!

[BTDretire]

I wasn't trying to be confusing, BTDretire. Anything in particular I can clarify from that post?

 Can you start with Bitcoin?  ;-)

[DS]

How has this thread not died yet?

Because the top is in.

[max9505672]

I wonder how many posters will be in this thread if we have a 20% correction.

The question isn't if, it's when. But... the whole point of the thread and the piling on is that if we do get a 20% drop after a 30% gain and we were told the top is in 30% ago... we lost a lot.

Already Vanguard total stock market (VTI) is up 20% YTD. Vanguard FTSE All-World Ex US is up 23% YTD. Add a couple more % for dividends. So yeah, 20% drop? doesn't seem too bad to me.

Anyway, the top is in now for sure!

I wish I had started investing sooner than March 2017. I keep my fingers crossed than the drop will wait  just a little more so that the gains made will upset the losses.

Ho, never mind, top is in, I'm selling everything.

[Tonyahu]

want to cash out all my "Bitcoins" but need dat equities dip

[Cycling Stache]

I wonder how many posters will be in this thread if we have a 20% correction.
 The Top is Not in, yet.

UUh, we can have a "The Bottom is in" thread.
 For that we can even pick numbers!
 I say 2,376 on the S&P.
See ya there.

I tried this a couple years ago when the market was dropping.  I think someone voted S&P 500 at 1200 and that was that.

The problem of course is that it's fine and good to sell at a top (not really) but not worth much if you don't know when to buy back in.

In other news, international is way up, so it looks like Le Top is in.

[anisotropy]

I wonder how many posters will be in this thread if we have a 20% correction.

For the record, I continued to participate in the "discussion" in September after we had lost in the summer due to strong cad, granted it wasn't even close to 20% but still hurt all the same, especially when most of the 'muricans made money.

Curiously, the best performing "Chinese" index this year, HSI, reversed the trend and grossly underperformed the s&p since August 6th, after I had pointed out the possibility in reply #548. Merely coincidence I am sure, I get tons of those.

There is no doubt to me that we are currently in a bubble, and the bubble may get bigger yet. When it finally bursts I hope to continue post in this thread.

[MrGreen]

I wonder how many posters will be in this thread if we have a 20% correction.
 The Top is Not in, yet.

UUh, we can have a "The Bottom is in" thread.
 For that we can even pick numbers!
 I say 2,376 on the S&P.
See ya there.

A 20% correction only takes us back to the election. The market has had quite the rally this year.

[Retire-Canada]

I predict no market correction higher than 10% in 2018. Stocks will keep rallying and people will keep saying the Top is In!

[Tonyahu]

Due to the recent rallies and arguably "bubble valuations", has anyone taken say 2 or even 3 years out of the portfolio so they can run on cash if it were to dip? Better than pulling 4% from a portfolio that got split in half.

Just an idea

[Clean Shaven]

How has this thread not died yet?

Because there are a lot more memes to go through.

[Optimiser]

How has this thread not died yet?

Because there are a lot more memes to go through.

I suspect the meme market will never see a top

[Clean Shaven]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

[GuitarStv]

Clearly, the meme top is in.

[solon]

[retireatbirth]

JPM is calling for 3,000 S&P 500 next year.

BTW, top is in.

[ILikeDividends]

I am glad for this thread. I really appreciate mustacians looking out for each other. Once the top is in and I'm told by the kind hearted souls on this thread, I can sell all my liquid investments and go to cash. Of course, since there have been some wrong calls (honest mistakes), I think I will have to wait to see if the top really was in before I sell. So help me with my strategy, should I wait for a 5%, 10%, 20% drop from the top before I sell? What is the best strategy here?

Wait for a 91% drop.  Can't go wrong with that.

[solon]

Smart money is in bitcoin. Time to move your retirement funds there.

[OurTown]

I store all my bitcoins in my safety deposit box.

[aspiringnomad]

I wonder how many posters will be in this thread if we have a 20% correction.

You better believe that if/when there's a 20% drop these hills will be alive with the sound of thorstach crowing about his market timing skills and hawking his bouncy dead cats for anyone who wants to sell all their shares to buy one. Some of us may not return daily for that scene, but rest assured that the the top will eventually roar back, so will we, and so will the live bouncy cats.

[Clean Shaven]

Smart money is in bitcoin. Time to move your retirement funds there.

What about Chuck E Cheese coins? Those are valuable too.

https://gizmodo.com/no-a-guy-didnt-scam-1-million-by-selling-chuck-e-che-1821382567