Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 3409928 times)

secondcor521

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9200 on: May 13, 2022, 10:07:56 PM »
My first buy point for more S&P 500 is 20% down.. who's with me?

My 401k buy is Friday, which I assume means that the market will be up.

Nailed it!  I always find myself a little pissed off when the market is up on pay day, which is my 401k buy day.  Never fails!

[starts furiously searching the internet to see if anyone has ever researched a payday effect, where markets go up because everyone's 401k buys stock on the same day.]

It's a known effect, although I don't know the magnitude.

The other known effect is that most traders are in a good mood on Friday because they're going into a weekend.  Again, not sure of the magnitude.

PDXTabs

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9201 on: May 13, 2022, 11:40:59 PM »
The other known effect is that most traders are in a good mood on Friday because they're going into a weekend.  Again, not sure of the magnitude.

I believe that it is also accepted dogma that in true times of panic no trader wants to hold over the weekend, so on Friday markets go down in times of panic. Top is in!

BigMoneyJim

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9202 on: May 16, 2022, 05:43:56 PM »
I just visited r/wsb for the first time in a while, curious about the mood as I've heard BTC has fallen greatly, and I have a little theory about the enthusiasm driving crypto and r/wsb coming from the same places.

I'm seeing several posts of disillusionment.

I'm calling it: bottom is in. We'll be back to new "top is in" memes within a month.

(I'm not saying we go to new all-time-highs that fast; I'm just saying we'll have reason to be calling the top of the then-current upward trend.)

That said, I'm making absolutely no money moves based on this prediction. If I put money in or out of the market it's because I'm replenishing funds I spent in retirement or I may have found some income and overshoot my cash target.

PDXTabs

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9203 on: May 16, 2022, 06:46:20 PM »
I just visited r/wsb for the first time in a while, curious about the mood as I've heard BTC has fallen greatly, and I have a little theory about the enthusiasm driving crypto and r/wsb coming from the same places.

Me too, but I actually enjoy it more now, possibly because I never purchased any meme stocks. The best thing about WSB is the actual memes, and they are still going strong.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9204 on: May 16, 2022, 08:03:31 PM »
I just visited r/wsb for the first time in a while, curious about the mood as I've heard BTC has fallen greatly, and I have a little theory about the enthusiasm driving crypto and r/wsb coming from the same places.

I'm seeing several posts of disillusionment.

I'm calling it: bottom is in. We'll be back to new "top is in" memes within a month.

(I'm not saying we go to new all-time-highs that fast; I'm just saying we'll have reason to be calling the top of the then-current upward trend.)

That said, I'm making absolutely no money moves based on this prediction. If I put money in or out of the market it's because I'm replenishing funds I spent in retirement or I may have found some income and overshoot my cash target.

Not sure I'd take disillusionment from apes losing money on meme stonks is the best indicator, but BOTTOM IS IN!

Fortunately I have all that cash from selling when the initial Top was In...

Tyson

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9205 on: May 16, 2022, 09:26:16 PM »
Is something happening in the market?

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9206 on: May 16, 2022, 10:48:00 PM »
Is something happening in the market?

Read the title

Mr. Boh

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9207 on: May 17, 2022, 08:01:14 AM »
I just visited r/wsb for the first time in a while, curious about the mood as I've heard BTC has fallen greatly, and I have a little theory about the enthusiasm driving crypto and r/wsb coming from the same places.

I'm seeing several posts of disillusionment.

I'm calling it: bottom is in. We'll be back to new "top is in" memes within a month.

(I'm not saying we go to new all-time-highs that fast; I'm just saying we'll have reason to be calling the top of the then-current upward trend.)

That said, I'm making absolutely no money moves based on this prediction. If I put money in or out of the market it's because I'm replenishing funds I spent in retirement or I may have found some income and overshoot my cash target.

After 185 pages have you learned nothing? Top is in!?

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9208 on: May 17, 2022, 08:16:16 AM »
I just visited r/wsb ... I'm seeing several posts of disillusionment.

I'm calling it: bottom is in. We'll be back to new "top is in" memes within a month.
...
That said, I'm making absolutely no money moves based on this prediction.
People screaming in an insane asylum doesn't mean everyone is crazy.

CNN Fear & Greed index has 5 categories ranging from "extreme fear" to "extreme greed".  Extreme fear was hit last year in July, Sept, Oct and Dec.  This year extreme fear was hit in Jan, March and now May.
https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

Which of those 7 months was the bottom, again?
Per the data, the top is in!

dandarc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9209 on: May 17, 2022, 10:08:09 AM »
Top is in forever and ever amen.

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9210 on: May 17, 2022, 10:58:53 AM »
It can always get worse. Top is in!

mistymoney

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9211 on: May 18, 2022, 05:20:31 PM »
are serious posts allowed on this thread?

Wondered if there was a date of when the top was, so we can start counting from it....

looks like Jan 3/7 on a graph of sp500, but what do they actual use to determine the top? closing or intraday high?

idk, just curious....

PDXTabs

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9212 on: May 18, 2022, 05:37:01 PM »
are serious posts allowed on this thread?

Wondered if there was a date of when the top was, so we can start counting from it....

looks like Jan 3/7 on a graph of sp500, but what do they actual use to determine the top? closing or intraday high?

idk, just curious....

People usually use closing. 4,796.56 Monday, January 3, 2022.

So bear market starts at 3837.24 for the SP500.

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9213 on: May 18, 2022, 06:10:30 PM »
are serious posts allowed on this thread?

Wondered if there was a date of when the top was, so we can start counting from it....

looks like Jan 3/7 on a graph of sp500, but what do they actual use to determine the top? closing or intraday high?

idk, just curious....

Every post on this thread is serious

ender

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9214 on: May 18, 2022, 06:26:48 PM »
are serious posts allowed on this thread?

Wondered if there was a date of when the top was, so we can start counting from it....

looks like Jan 3/7 on a graph of sp500, but what do they actual use to determine the top? closing or intraday high?

idk, just curious....

People usually use closing. 4,796.56 Monday, January 3, 2022.

So bear market starts at 3837.24 for the SP500.

Bear top was in.

But it can only go down from here.  I think that means top is in.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9215 on: May 18, 2022, 06:34:12 PM »
Do not be fooled by the market trying to trick investors with 2 days of gains.  Today's losses turned the past 3 days into a net loss.  The market punishes those who do not believe the top is in!

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9216 on: May 18, 2022, 06:40:52 PM »
Every post on this thread is serious
Dead Serious.

maizefolk

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9217 on: May 18, 2022, 06:49:02 PM »
People usually use closing. 4,796.56 Monday, January 3, 2022.

So bear market starts at 3837.24 for the SP500.

Useful context. So for even after today's 4% drop we're down ~18%, about as much as the dreaded near-bear market of 2018, a period of chaos, anarchy, and despair that I'm sure is seared into the memories of everyone reading this thread.

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9218 on: May 18, 2022, 07:19:40 PM »
One week into 2022, the market is on track to decline 75% by the end of the year.

I’m seeing a 2% decline this week. Wouldn’t that put us at a 77% decline for the year?

S&P 500 at 1,600 by Christmas 2022. I’m calling it now.

We are on the way!

Also, the top is in.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9219 on: May 18, 2022, 07:40:00 PM »
People usually use closing. 4,796.56 Monday, January 3, 2022.

So bear market starts at 3837.24 for the SP500.
Useful context. So for even after today's 4% drop we're down ~18%, about as much as the dreaded near-bear market of 2018, a period of chaos, anarchy, and despair that I'm sure is seared into the memories of everyone reading this thread.
And yet at -4% over the past 12 months, we are rapidly approaching the -5% performance of 2018... the worst year new investors have ever seen.  There are stories of years where the stock market did worse than -5%, but luckily most new investors know that the way to wisdom is by ignoring the wise.

maizefolk

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9220 on: May 18, 2022, 07:54:13 PM »
People usually use closing. 4,796.56 Monday, January 3, 2022.

So bear market starts at 3837.24 for the SP500.
Useful context. So for even after today's 4% drop we're down ~18%, about as much as the dreaded near-bear market of 2018, a period of chaos, anarchy, and despair that I'm sure is seared into the memories of everyone reading this thread.
And yet at -4% over the past 12 months, we are rapidly approaching the -5% performance of 2018... the worst year new investors have ever seen.  There are stories of years where the stock market did worse than -5%, but luckily most new investors know that the way to wisdom is by ignoring the wise.

March of 2020 was a much larger 12 month decline than the 2018 calendar year.

Heck, mid-December 2017 to mid-December-2018 was a much bigger 12 month decline than the 2018 calendar year, there was a ridiculous rally between Christmas and the New Year back then.

mistymoney

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9221 on: May 18, 2022, 08:24:58 PM »
are serious posts allowed on this thread?

Wondered if there was a date of when the top was, so we can start counting from it....

looks like Jan 3/7 on a graph of sp500, but what do they actual use to determine the top? closing or intraday high?

idk, just curious....

People usually use closing. 4,796.56 Monday, January 3, 2022.

So bear market starts at 3837.24 for the SP500.

thanks.

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9222 on: May 18, 2022, 08:31:00 PM »
Would it be possible to have a topless bear market?

ChpBstrd

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9223 on: May 18, 2022, 08:48:42 PM »
Would it be possible to have a topless bear market?
If you are willing to pay for it, you can have anything you want.
Anything.

secondcor521

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9224 on: May 18, 2022, 09:00:34 PM »
are serious posts allowed on this thread?

Wondered if there was a date of when the top was, so we can start counting from it....

looks like Jan 3/7 on a graph of sp500, but what do they actual use to determine the top? closing or intraday high?

idk, just curious....

I usually base it on the XIV breaking down.  Or April 11, 2017 if you want to go by calendar dates.

Travis

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9225 on: May 18, 2022, 10:32:36 PM »
are serious posts allowed on this thread?

Wondered if there was a date of when the top was, so we can start counting from it....

looks like Jan 3/7 on a graph of sp500, but what do they actual use to determine the top? closing or intraday high?

idk, just curious....

Every post on this thread is serious

"Even the funny posts?"

"Especially the funny posts."

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9226 on: May 19, 2022, 07:49:49 AM »
People usually use closing. 4,796.56 Monday, January 3, 2022.

So bear market starts at 3837.24 for the SP500.
Useful context. So for even after today's 4% drop we're down ~18%, about as much as the dreaded near-bear market of 2018, a period of chaos, anarchy, and despair that I'm sure is seared into the memories of everyone reading this thread.
And yet at -4% over the past 12 months, we are rapidly approaching the -5% performance of 2018... the worst year new investors have ever seen.  There are stories of years where the stock market did worse than -5%, but luckily most new investors know that the way to wisdom is by ignoring the wise.

March of 2020 was a much larger 12 month decline than the 2018 calendar year.

Heck, mid-December 2017 to mid-December-2018 was a much bigger 12 month decline than the 2018 calendar year, there was a ridiculous rally between Christmas and the New Year back then.
I should not have confusingly mixed "last 12 months" and "year" in my post without clarifying "calendar year".  The worst calendar year of stock market performance in the past decade was 2018.

Investors learned the Fed saved them in calendar year 2018, reversing quantitative tightening.  Then the Fed + Congress saved the market again in 2020, causing calendar year 2020 performance to be +20%.  Unfortunately, investors think the same thing happens in high inflation, and forgot controlling inflation is a Fed mandate.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9227 on: May 19, 2022, 08:34:37 AM »
The top was in for Melvin Capital:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/19/investing/melvin-capital-hedge-fund-closes/index.html

This means the Wall Street Bets crowd "won" their battle with short hedge funds while simultaneously losing money.

I do NOT think the top is in on paying other people enormous sums of money to lose enormous sums of your money.

HPstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9228 on: May 19, 2022, 09:24:56 AM »
The top was in for Melvin Capital:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/19/investing/melvin-capital-hedge-fund-closes/index.html

This means the Wall Street Bets crowd "won" their battle with short hedge funds while simultaneously losing money.

I do NOT think the top is in on paying other people enormous sums of money to lose enormous sums of your money.

Ouch!  Well a lot of WSB'ers lost their ass on GME, but at least they beat Melvin Capital.

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9229 on: May 19, 2022, 09:56:08 AM »
Would it be possible to have a topless bear market?

I might have found a picture of what you were asking about, it could also be why the top is in!



Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9230 on: May 19, 2022, 10:13:07 AM »
The top was in for Melvin Capital:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/19/investing/melvin-capital-hedge-fund-closes/index.html

This means the Wall Street Bets crowd "won" their battle with short hedge funds while simultaneously losing money.

I do NOT think the top is in on paying other people enormous sums of money to lose enormous sums of your money.

Ouch!  Well a lot of WSB'ers lost their ass on GME, but at least they beat Melvin Capital.
Pyrrhic top is in.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9231 on: May 19, 2022, 10:16:26 AM »
Would it be possible to have a topless bear market?
If you are willing to pay for it, you can have anything you want.
Anything.

But remember.  No matter what Thorstach tells you, there is no Sex in the “top is in” thread.  NONE

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9232 on: May 19, 2022, 11:56:55 AM »

Psychstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9233 on: May 19, 2022, 02:41:55 PM »
are serious posts allowed on this thread?

Wondered if there was a date of when the top was, so we can start counting from it....

looks like Jan 3/7 on a graph of sp500, but what do they actual use to determine the top? closing or intraday high?

idk, just curious....

Every post on this thread is serious

"Even the funny posts?"

"Especially the funny posts."

DS9 top is in?

ScreamingHeadGuy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9234 on: May 19, 2022, 06:04:11 PM »
are serious posts allowed on this thread?

Wondered if there was a date of when the top was, so we can start counting from it....

looks like Jan 3/7 on a graph of sp500, but what do they actual use to determine the top? closing or intraday high?

idk, just curious....

Every post on this thread is serious

"Even the funny posts?"

"Especially the funny posts."

DS9 top is in?

Okay, so I wasn’t the only one whose brain went there.  Nice to know. 

Travis

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9235 on: May 19, 2022, 08:53:40 PM »
are serious posts allowed on this thread?

Wondered if there was a date of when the top was, so we can start counting from it....

looks like Jan 3/7 on a graph of sp500, but what do they actual use to determine the top? closing or intraday high?

idk, just curious....

Every post on this thread is serious

"Even the funny posts?"

"Especially the funny posts."

DS9 top is in?

DS9 top will never be in.

vand

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9236 on: May 20, 2022, 04:02:02 AM »
The 3 most important stocks for the market are AAPL, MSFT & AMZN.

As the unprofitable and questionable dross amongst the wider market crumbles, investors "flee" into these bellweather stocks, which continue to hold up the indexes.  If and when these pillars are taken out then the market as a whole is in big trouble.

Key levels are:

AAPL: $155
Apple is the strongest of the 3, still in a well defined uptrend, and upward sloping 233dma and 55dma

MSFT: $275
Microsoft is in the middle, it is flirting with its 233dma, while the 55dma is now downward sloping

AMZN: $2700
Amazon is the weakest, having spend last year going sideways. The 55dma has already crossed below the 233dma and both are now being pulled down by the price action. This looks likely to be the first stock to fall below key support and trigger the next leg down.

Those levels have all been taken out now.

AMZN got smashed. MSFT is now in an well established downtrend, and AAPL is quickly catching up.

These stocks could all fall a lot further imo.  AAPL more than quadrupled in the last 4-5 years, which is extraordinary given its size, and imo there is no reason it can't couldn't get cut in half or worse as it starts to runs into some headwinds.  AAPL is a great company, but it's essentially a consumer goods company that is largely dependent on discretionary spending. In the current cost of living squeeze I think a lot of people will just keep their iphones for another couple of years and cancel Apple TV

I left out GOOG which I would put in with those 3... and which is also now looking weak.
« Last Edit: May 20, 2022, 10:58:13 AM by vand »

waltworks

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9237 on: May 20, 2022, 07:10:02 AM »
I'm starting to get excited about putting iBond money back in the market (and reinvesting dividends again)! Doom and gloom everywhere!

-W

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9238 on: May 20, 2022, 08:32:38 AM »
I'm starting to get excited about putting iBond money back in the market (and reinvesting dividends again)! Doom and gloom everywhere!
Expecting a bottom is heresy for the top is in!

Inflation is stable, the Fed will have to keep raising rates.  The market has much more doom and gloom in it's future, by which is why...

the top is in.

HPstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9239 on: May 20, 2022, 10:52:51 AM »
S&P500 Bear Market is in

Tyson

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9240 on: May 20, 2022, 11:29:20 AM »
I love how tone deaf some people can be in threads like this one.

vand

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9241 on: May 20, 2022, 12:12:45 PM »
I love how tone deaf some people can be in threads like this one.

Nah, I get it. I just can't be arsed to start a "serious" thread cos that's not we do around here.

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9242 on: May 20, 2022, 12:14:32 PM »
I love how tone deaf some people can be in threads like this one.
I know. It's like some people don't even take big market declines after a peak seriously.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9243 on: May 20, 2022, 12:34:08 PM »
I just visited r/wsb for the first time in a while, curious about the mood as I've heard BTC has fallen greatly, and I have a little theory about the enthusiasm driving crypto and r/wsb coming from the same places.

I'm seeing several posts of disillusionment.

I'm calling it: bottom is in. We'll be back to new "top is in" memes within a month.

(I'm not saying we go to new all-time-highs that fast; I'm just saying we'll have reason to be calling the top of the then-current upward trend.)

That said, I'm making absolutely no money moves based on this prediction. If I put money in or out of the market it's because I'm replenishing funds I spent in retirement or I may have found some income and overshoot my cash target.

The 'good news' is that the market typically falls faster than it rises, so you might still be correct that we hit bottom and start to build to new highs by mid-June.  But then again, maybe not.

@Exflyboy got his buying opportunity!

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9244 on: May 20, 2022, 12:37:47 PM »
I did get my buying op.. But I still haven't pulled the trigger yet.. Maybe at 25% down?..:)

Tyson

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9245 on: May 20, 2022, 01:03:12 PM »
I love how tone deaf some people can be in threads like this one.

Nah, I get it. I just can't be arsed to start a "serious" thread cos that's not we do around here.

Yes, that makes it even funnier.

achvfi

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9246 on: May 20, 2022, 01:38:04 PM »
TSLA top is in!

I hope so. Elon's got too much money and power. Inflated TSLA is ruining the indexes, hope it gets much smaller in market cap. I rather not own it anywhere in my portfolio, but I am stuck with it in indexes.

https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-paid-250000-to-a-flight-attendant-who-accused-elon-musk-of-sexual-misconduct-2022-5

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9247 on: May 20, 2022, 02:04:53 PM »
I did get my buying op.. But I still haven't pulled the trigger yet.. Maybe at 25% down?..:)

Good luck! 

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9248 on: May 20, 2022, 02:05:48 PM »
I love how tone deaf some people can be in threads like this one.
Nah, I get it. I just can't be arsed to start a "serious" thread cos that's not we do around here.
Yes, that makes it even funnier.
If you peek back in the thread's history, during market drops the thread has fewer memes posted.  Meme top is in!

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9249 on: May 20, 2022, 02:26:29 PM »
I love how tone deaf some people can be in threads like this one.
I know. It's like some people don't even take big market declines after a peak seriously.

I’d rather joke about it than freak out.  But if we’re being honest…