Top is in

[slow hand slow plan]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/every-day-the-stock-market-rises-things-get-a-little-more-absurd-2017-07-26?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo


The top is has been in for weeks... Thorstach is writing for Market Watch apparently

[Retire-Canada]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/every-day-the-stock-market-rises-things-get-a-little-more-absurd-2017-07-26?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo


The top is has been in for weeks... Thorstach is writing for Market Watch apparently

Assuming I am talking to mostly value folks here, let me ask the question: How long are you going to have to wait? Possibly a while. We could be having this conversation a year from now, with the S&P 500 SPX, -0.49%  at 2,900, my “top” call left in the dust.

...from ^^ the link.

[DarkandStormy]

And here comes the S&P close below the 50 day average with VIX at 16.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4062080-passive-investing-will-make-next-correction-worse

"Thesis: The passive investing shift presents risks to investors as many are less likely to receive any advice prior to selling during the next severe correction. Psychology tells us that investors will always fear losses and react to market downturns. The shift into passive assets will exacerbate the next downturn, not alleviate it."

The S&P 500 has increased 5% since this post.

[slow hand slow plan]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/every-day-the-stock-market-rises-things-get-a-little-more-absurd-2017-07-26?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo


The top is has been in for weeks... Thorstach is writing for Market Watch apparently

Assuming I am talking to mostly value folks here, let me ask the question: How long are you going to have to wait? Possibly a while. We could be having this conversation a year from now, with the S&P 500 SPX, -0.49%  at 2,900, my “top” call left in the dust.

...from ^^ the link.

Well at I am glad Thor can admit he is wrong ...

[aboatguy]

[thorstach]

The tech sector has provided more than 40% of the  S&P  500's advance
Throughout 2017, there's one acronym that investors have in particular been sinking their teeth into: FAANG.
The term stands for a quintet of the market's most pronounced highfliers:  Facebook Inc.  (FB),  Apple Inc.  (AAPL),  Amazon.com Inc.  (AMZN),  Netflix Inc.  (NFLX), and Alphabet (GOOGL), the parent company of  Google . Together they've accounted for a huge amount of the overall market's advance, something that could leave major indexes vulnerable in the event the group turns lower.
Based on their Wednesday close, the FAANG stocks have accounted for more than a quarter of the  S&P  500's total year-to-date return (28.4%, to be exact), according to  Howard Silverblatt , senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices. That calculation doesn't include the sharp decline that several of the stocks underwent on Thursday.
Each of the five stocks is up sharply thus far this year, posting gains that range from about 20% to nearly 50%. Furthermore, four of the five are among the five largest stocks in the U.S. equity market, meaning they have an outsize weight on broader moves. Together, they account for more than 10% of the  S&P  500 by market capitalization.
The benchmark  S&P  500 is up 10.6% thus far this year. The Nasdaq Composite Index , where all of the FAANG stocks trade, has climbed 18.6%. The Nasdaq -100 , which has an even more concentrated holding of the group, is up nearly 22%.
Overall, the information-technology sector has accounted for 41.6% of the  S&P  500's total return this year, per Silverblatt's data, by far the most of any group. The tech sector (XLK) itself is up 18.9%, while the consumer-discretionary sector (XLY)--where  Amazon  and  Netflix  are classified, despite their connection to the tech industry (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/did-you-buy-a-tech-etf-to-cash-in-on-amazon-heres-some-bad-news-2017-06-16)--is up 13.1%.
The gains in these large-cap names have raised concerns about their valuation (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-internet-stocks-hit-records-familiar-questions-about-bubbles-arise-2017-05-22), with analysts noting similarities between the current market environment and the dot-com era (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-continue-to-mirror-the-dot-com-era-in-ominous-ways-2017-06-15), when there was a bubble in tech names that, when it burst, took down the broader market.
Related:Will tech rally continue? Hedge funds say yes, but mutual funds say no (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/will-tech-rally-continue-hedge-funds-say-yes-but-mutual-funds-say-no-2017-06-05)
Earlier this year, the largest exchange-traded fund to track the tech sector hit an all-time high on a total-return basis (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/after-17-years-sp-500-tech-sector-finally-regains-lost-ground-2017-04-24), recovering the ground it lost in the wake of the dot-com era.
On Thursday, an abrupt selloff in tech shares pressured the FAANG names (except for  Facebook , which stayed higher in the wake of better-than-expected quarterly results (http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2017/07/26/facebook-earnings-put-instagram-in-focus-amid-shift-in-newsfeed-ads-live-blog/)), which in turn weighed on the overall market, pressuring the broader market and dragging the  S&P  500 and Nasdaq to a close in negative territory (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tech-stocks-poised-to-drive-another-record-day-on-wall-street-led-by-facebook-2017-07-27).
- Ryan Vlastelica ; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
 07-27-17   1722ET

[thorstach]

Oh and /ES futures down 1%, gapping down tomorrow, top is in.

[Clean Shaven]

Oh and /ES futures down 1%, gapping down tomorrow, top is in.

[MrDelane]

Oh and /ES futures down 1%, gapping down tomorrow, top is in.

This time for real though.
Seriously.

[MrDelane]

For those keeping score:


April 11, 2017 "The Top is in."  (S&P 500 closes at 2,353.78)

107 days later...

July 27, 2017 "The Top is in."  (S&P 500 closes at 2,475.42)

[JAYSLOL]

Oh and /ES futures down 1%, gapping down tomorrow, top is in.

Best.  Thread.  Ever. 

[Radagast]

GIF Version

[frugledoc]

Good evening all, is top in yet? Thorstach said it would be.

[dividendman]

Good evening all, is top in yet? Thorstach said it would be.

Haven't you been paying attention?!?! It's been in for over a day now!

[sol]

One of these days he's going to be right, by pure random chance, and you're all going to eat crow.

Keep swinging, thorstach, you're bound to connect eventually.

[MrDelane]

I'm going to start making my own predictions, and I predict I will be right many more times than Thorstach.

My prediction:  Thorstach will say that the top is in.

[dougules]

The top will be in September 19 at 2:02 EDT. 

[frugledoc]

DJIA needs a slight pullback followed by a further mistimed Thorstach "top is in" call, then onwards and upward beyond 22,000.  Not that it matters at all!

[wienerdog]

Top Ver 4.0 is in.

[runewell]

The top will be in September 19 at 2:02 EDT.

Or was that the solar eclipse, I keep forgetting...

[powskier]

I've been buying all the tops for a while, and it's been working out for me.

[JAYSLOL]

Looks like we might have another false breakout today.

Every time thorstach calls the top, I make thousands of dollars in the stock market the following day by doing nothing.

Call it again, thorstach!

Either Thorstach can't call the top, or thousands of mustachians are pouring dump truck loads of money into index funds out of spite every time he calls a top.  Maybe a bit of both :)

[Tyson]

GIF Version

OK that was awesome.

[gluskap]

This thread is in!  OMG so entertaining.  My prediction the Top is never in if you're buy and hold like me.  It just keeps going up and up as long as your timeframe is long term.  Every time I get scared that maybe my strategy is too simple I just need to go back to this thread and I'll feel better knowing that the low fee index fund buy and hold strategy is still the best.

[Kaspian]

My new top came in today.  [GROANS.]

[MrDelane]

[dougules]

This thread is in!  OMG so entertaining.  My prediction the Top is never in if you're buy and hold like me.  It just keeps going up and up as long as your timeframe is long term.  Every time I get scared that maybe my strategy is too simple I just need to go back to this thread and I'll feel better knowing that the low fee index fund buy and hold strategy is still the best.

The top WILL be in when the Vogons arrive. 

[Clean Shaven]

The top WILL be in when the Vogons arrive.

And they will bring poetry, such as this Ode to Tops:

See, see the old sky
Marvel at its big puce depths.
Tell me, top do you
Wonder why the fartknocker ignores you?
Why its foobly stare
makes you feel slothlike.
I can tell you, it is
Worried by your shimateeboob facial growth
That looks like
A mold
What's more, it knows
Your torque potting shed
Smells of booger.
Everything under the big old sky
Asks why, why do I even bother?
You only charm buttstench.




courtesy of:
http://tonybaldwin.me/pages/vogon.php

[thorstach]

https://latest.13d.com/toxic-mix-of-low-volatility-passive-strategies-and-high-leverage-is-reason-for-caution-us-equities-5e92ba0f5fc1


Low volatility could be ‘the quiet before the storm,’” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.” Over the past 20 years, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has closed below 10 on only 21 days, 13 of which have been in the past two months. The current streak of 270-plus days without a 5% drawdown in any of the major U.S. indices is the longest since 1996. Meanwhile, U.S. equity values continue to diverge from earnings — Schiller’s Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE) has only been higher two times in market history: 1929 and 2000.

[DavidAnnArbor]

https://latest.13d.com/toxic-mix-of-low-volatility-passive-strategies-and-high-leverage-is-reason-for-caution-us-equities-5e92ba0f5fc1


Low volatility could be ‘the quiet before the storm,’” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.” Over the past 20 years, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has closed below 10 on only 21 days, 13 of which have been in the past two months. The current streak of 270-plus days without a 5% drawdown in any of the major U.S. indices is the longest since 1996. Meanwhile, U.S. equity values continue to diverge from earnings — Schiller’s Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE) has only been higher two times in market history: 1929 and 2000.

The problem is you can't tell whether we are like the year 1996 or March 2000. Trying to time the market is impossible and there's nothing anyone can do based on the information you provided.

[Retire-Canada]

Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.”

If the bolded text is true than he needs to revisit his asset allocation and investment plan. That sort of stress is pointless and damaging to your health.

[Le Barbu]

Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.”

If the bolded text is true than he needs to revisit his asset allocation and investment plan. That sort of stress is pointless and damaging to your health.

Maybe he was planning to retire quietly according to the 4% rule and got enligthed by Runewell's posts?

[steveo]

Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.”

If the bolded text is true than he needs to revisit his asset allocation and investment plan. That sort of stress is pointless and damaging to your health.

Yep. If you are worried about stocks tanking buy less of them and more bonds. Simple.

[respond2u]

Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.”

If the bolded text is true than he needs to revisit his asset allocation and investment plan. That sort of stress is pointless and damaging to your health.

Yep. If you are worried about stocks tanking buy less of them and more bonds. Simple.

Buy bonds simple? Not sure about that (if you believe Greenspawn).
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-08-10/greenspan-be-afraid-of-pending-bubble-in-bond-market

[frugledoc]

https://latest.13d.com/toxic-mix-of-low-volatility-passive-strategies-and-high-leverage-is-reason-for-caution-us-equities-5e92ba0f5fc1


Low volatility could be ‘the quiet before the storm,’” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.” Over the past 20 years, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has closed below 10 on only 21 days, 13 of which have been in the past two months. The current streak of 270-plus days without a 5% drawdown in any of the major U.S. indices is the longest since 1996. Meanwhile, U.S. equity values continue to diverge from earnings — Schiller’s Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE) has only been higher two times in market history: 1929 and 2000.

Just goes to show that money doesn't make you happy.  Like most financial types, this guys brain has been poisoned by money.

He probably has enough that he could be 100% cash and have 100% success rate, but instead is worrying that he might go from super rich to slightly less super rich.  Depressing.

[steveo]

Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.”

If the bolded text is true than he needs to revisit his asset allocation and investment plan. That sort of stress is pointless and damaging to your health.

Yep. If you are worried about stocks tanking buy less of them and more bonds. Simple.

Buy bonds simple? Not sure about that (if you believe Greenspawn).
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-08-10/greenspan-be-afraid-of-pending-bubble-in-bond-market

I don't think bonds are going to tank though. They could go down but they won't tank. Also if stocks do tank you'd expect bonds to go up.

[DavidAnnArbor]

https://latest.13d.com/toxic-mix-of-low-volatility-passive-strategies-and-high-leverage-is-reason-for-caution-us-equities-5e92ba0f5fc1


Low volatility could be ‘the quiet before the storm,’” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.” Over the past 20 years, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has closed below 10 on only 21 days, 13 of which have been in the past two months. The current streak of 270-plus days without a 5% drawdown in any of the major U.S. indices is the longest since 1996. Meanwhile, U.S. equity values continue to diverge from earnings — Schiller’s Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE) has only been higher two times in market history: 1929 and 2000.

Just goes to show that money doesn't make you happy.  Like most financial types, this guys brain has been poisoned by money.

He probably has enough that he could be 100% cash and have 100% success rate, but instead is worrying that he might go from super rich to slightly less super rich.  Depressing.

Meditation and affirmations are good antidotes to this kind of stress.

[TomTX]

Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.”

If the bolded text is true than he needs to revisit his asset allocation and investment plan. That sort of stress is pointless and damaging to your health.

Yep. If you are worried about stocks tanking buy less of them and more bonds. Simple.

Buy bonds simple? Not sure about that (if you believe Greenspawn).
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-08-10/greenspan-be-afraid-of-pending-bubble-in-bond-market

I don't think bonds are going to tank though. They could go down but they won't tank. Also if stocks do tank you'd expect bonds to go up.

10 year Treasuries are yielding slightly less than a 5 year CD (FDIC insured) at Synchrony, or Barclays, or Ally, or Goldman Sachs, or Discover bank.

[Riff]

[With This Herring]

I interpret Shiller's statement as him being worried about how a potential large market crash would affect regular investors and regular workers, not his personal finances.  I would guess that he has his personal finances set comfortably.

[Retire-Canada]

It's all about the top. The tip top! Cheers to many many many many more tops. :)

[wenchsenior]

https://latest.13d.com/toxic-mix-of-low-volatility-passive-strategies-and-high-leverage-is-reason-for-caution-us-equities-5e92ba0f5fc1


Low volatility could be ‘the quiet before the storm,’” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.” Over the past 20 years, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has closed below 10 on only 21 days, 13 of which have been in the past two months. The current streak of 270-plus days without a 5% drawdown in any of the major U.S. indices is the longest since 1996. Meanwhile, U.S. equity values continue to diverge from earnings — Schiller’s Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE) has only been higher two times in market history: 1929 and 2000.

Just goes to show that money doesn't make you happy.  Like most financial types, this guys brain has been poisoned by money.

He probably has enough that he could be 100% cash and have 100% success rate, but instead is worrying that he might go from super rich to slightly less super rich.  Depressing.

Schiller has  been bellyaching about the the equity 'bubble' for at least 3 or 4 years.  It might even be longer than that (time tends to get away from me).  I just heard him as a guest on On Point, and I was cracking up because he was saying identical things to the last time I heard him as a guest on On Point, quite a few years ago.

[Retire-Canada]

Schiller has  been bellyaching about the the equity 'bubble' for at least 3 or 4 years.  It might even be longer than that (time tends to get away from me).  I just heard him as a guest on On Point, and I was cracking up because he was saying identical things to the last time I heard him as a guest on On Point, quite a few years ago.

That's how you become a market expert. Say the same dramatic stuff again and again until one day you are right....then milk that shit for a decade. ;)

[UnleashHell]

[anisotropy]

for those of you eagerly waiting to benefit from my wisdom:

the market breadth (usa) has narrowed since the beginning of 2017, but we still have time. hang seng on the other hand is on relatively shaky grounds. note that the usd may continue to weaken, resulting in lower "real" return even if the market rallies further, especially if you hold mostly unhedged index funds in another currency.

[dividendman]

Dow has 9 straight days of gains:

http://money.cnn.com/2017/08/07/investing/markets-dow-winning-streak/index.html

[afuera]

New Top!!

[Exflyboy]

New Top!!

Whoop.. extra glass of wine with dinner tonight :)

[sol]

Where is thorstach?  Surely there's a crossing golden X or an inflection in the VIX/P/E mean-to-sigma ratio, or maybe an ascending triangle bouncing off a bump and run reversal.

He's been quiet long enough to have found any and all forms of chartist bullshit in the tea leaves by now.  Meanwhile, I'm up approximately 11% YTD, before dividends or contributions, just by ignoring him.

[dividendman]

Where is thorstach?  Surely there's a crossing golden X or an inflection in the VIX/P/E mean-to-sigma ratio, or maybe an ascending triangle bouncing off a bump and run reversal.

He's been quiet long enough to have found any and all forms of chartist bullshit in the tea leaves by now.  Meanwhile, I'm up approximately 11% YTD, before dividends or contributions, just by ignoring him.

He posted in this thread on august 4th, that's not too far back. Same doom and gloom though.

https://latest.13d.com/toxic-mix-of-low-volatility-passive-strategies-and-high-leverage-is-reason-for-caution-us-equities-5e92ba0f5fc1


Low volatility could be ‘the quiet before the storm,’” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.” Over the past 20 years, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has closed below 10 on only 21 days, 13 of which have been in the past two months. The current streak of 270-plus days without a 5% drawdown in any of the major U.S. indices is the longest since 1996. Meanwhile, U.S. equity values continue to diverge from earnings — Schiller’s Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE) has only been higher two times in market history: 1929 and 2000.