Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 1436315 times)

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6550 on: March 18, 2020, 11:31:47 AM »
Has anyone been watching treasuries lately? The top may well be in in the bond bubble.

Shaken, not stirred.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6551 on: March 18, 2020, 11:39:11 AM »
I think the S&P 500 is below the high on 4/11/2017 now. Thorstache nailed it! All hail the great thorstache!

I know.  If it goes any further it will set us back all the way to 2016!!!  Were people even alive back then?

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6552 on: March 18, 2020, 11:59:49 AM »
I think the S&P 500 is below the high on 4/11/2017 now. Thorstache nailed it! All hail the great thorstache!

Including dividends?

dandarc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6553 on: March 18, 2020, 12:00:30 PM »
I think the S&P 500 is below the high on 4/11/2017 now. Thorstache nailed it! All hail the great thorstache!

Including dividends?
We're calling the top here. WTF do dividends have to do with that?

vand

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6554 on: March 18, 2020, 12:06:02 PM »
Well, this is another blood bath.

On the slightly positive side, valuations have come down so quickly that you could almost say the US is now fairly priced.. the only time it has been cheaper than the current 22.8 CAPE since the mid-90s was in the teeth of the financial crisis. Not that valuations help one iota in the short term! Save Yourselveeesss!!!

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6555 on: March 18, 2020, 12:15:28 PM »
Well, this is another blood bath.

On the slightly positive side, valuations have come down so quickly that you could almost say the US is now fairly priced.. the only time it has been cheaper than the current 22.8 CAPE since the mid-90s was in the teeth of the financial crisis. Not that valuations help one iota in the short term! Save Yourselveeesss!!!

You have very strange hygiene habits.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6556 on: March 18, 2020, 12:25:26 PM »
Are you saying Vand is a vampire ?

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6557 on: March 18, 2020, 12:28:10 PM »
I think the S&P 500 is below the high on 4/11/2017 now. Thorstache nailed it! All hail the great thorstache!

Including dividends?
We're calling the top here. WTF do dividends have to do with that?

They're part of total return?

VTSAX had adjusted close price of 55.94 on 4-11-17 and 61.36 on 3-17-20.  So we need a 9.7% drop today to match the price on 4-11-17 if I'm doing that right.  S&P down 9.8% as I type, so yeah, top was in. 

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6558 on: March 18, 2020, 01:12:52 PM »
Well, this is another blood bath.

On the slightly positive side, valuations have come down so quickly that you could almost say the US is now fairly priced.. the only time it has been cheaper than the current 22.8 CAPE since the mid-90s was in the teeth of the financial crisis. Not that valuations help one iota in the short term! Save Yourselveeesss!!!

How does it look if you make reasonable forward earnings assumptions?

Definitely below where I was when I FIREd.  Will probably start financing my monthly expenditures with cheap margin.  Stocks would have to crash say another 70% before I get a margin call in the first year.  How likely is that?  Not sure I have anything I can sell high at this point even gold and bonds are trashed

Steeze

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6559 on: March 18, 2020, 02:00:34 PM »
I panic bought 2 pairs of sweat pants today. #NYCLockdown

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6560 on: March 18, 2020, 02:10:19 PM »
I almost panic bought some JPM today.

What a day. Downright interesting.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6561 on: March 18, 2020, 02:16:58 PM »
Well, this is another blood bath.

On the slightly positive side, valuations have come down so quickly that you could almost say the US is now fairly priced.. the only time it has been cheaper than the current 22.8 CAPE since the mid-90s was in the teeth of the financial crisis. Not that valuations help one iota in the short term! Save Yourselveeesss!!!

I might have to buy some stuff at this rate. Last time the CAPE was down to 22.8 was in 2013. Somebody asked me months ago what I thought an attractive CAPE rate was: I said 20. The poster scoffed.

Itís beginning to look like I might see that as early as next week.

Top Hammer Time is In!

vand

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6562 on: March 18, 2020, 02:18:15 PM »
I think the S&P 500 is below the high on 4/11/2017 now. Thorstache nailed it! All hail the great thorstache!

Including dividends?
We're calling the top here. WTF do dividends have to do with that?

They're part of total return?

VTSAX had adjusted close price of 55.94 on 4-11-17 and 61.36 on 3-17-20.  So we need a 9.7% drop today to match the price on 4-11-17 if I'm doing that right.  S&P down 9.8% as I type, so yeah, top was in.

Don't forget to adjust for inflation innit

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6563 on: March 18, 2020, 02:42:57 PM »
They're part of total return?

VTSAX had adjusted close price of 55.94 on 4-11-17 and 61.36 on 3-17-20.  So we need a 9.7% drop today to match the price on 4-11-17 if I'm doing that right.  S&P down 9.8% as I type, so yeah, top was in.

Don't forget to adjust for inflation innit

Nominal makes more sense for this comparison. 

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6564 on: March 18, 2020, 02:44:49 PM »
I am trying to catch the falling knife but it keeps slipping through my fingers.

I've always thought the falling knife analogy made it sound simple.

I think of it more like catching an epileptic porcupine rolling down a bumpy hill.

This is a particularly spastic porcupine on an extra bumpy mountain. 

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6565 on: March 18, 2020, 03:19:54 PM »
I am trying to catch the falling knife but it keeps slipping through my fingers.

I've always thought the falling knife analogy made it sound simple.

I think of it more like catching an epileptic porcupine rolling down a bumpy hill.

This is a particularly spastic porcupine on an extra bumpy mountain.

...with rabies. And diarrhea.

Alternatepriorities

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6566 on: March 18, 2020, 03:21:09 PM »
Nah, it just has a fever and dry cough

Quill Top is In?

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6567 on: March 18, 2020, 03:27:56 PM »
Make sure it maintains 6 ft of separation from other epileptic porcupines.

vand

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6568 on: March 18, 2020, 03:32:45 PM »
They're part of total return?

VTSAX had adjusted close price of 55.94 on 4-11-17 and 61.36 on 3-17-20.  So we need a 9.7% drop today to match the price on 4-11-17 if I'm doing that right.  S&P down 9.8% as I type, so yeah, top was in.

Don't forget to adjust for inflation innit

Nominal makes more sense for this comparison.

No it doesn't.

Helvegen

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6569 on: March 18, 2020, 04:16:09 PM »
Definitely below where I was when I FIREd.  Will probably start financing my monthly expenditures with cheap margin.  Stocks would have to crash say another 70% before I get a margin call in the first year.  How likely is that?  Not sure I have anything I can sell high at this point even gold and bonds are trashed

RE: PMs - Interesting thing is that silver has crashed so hard, you can hardly buy it anywhere. It is sold out almost everywhere you look, without going to very high premium silver.


Fomerly known as something

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6570 on: March 18, 2020, 06:39:55 PM »
Iím being greedy, my IPS says I should rebalance, Iím gonna wait a bit, I think the bottom is not in.

Davnasty

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6571 on: March 18, 2020, 08:19:12 PM »
They're part of total return?

VTSAX had adjusted close price of 55.94 on 4-11-17 and 61.36 on 3-17-20.  So we need a 9.7% drop today to match the price on 4-11-17 if I'm doing that right.  S&P down 9.8% as I type, so yeah, top was in.

Don't forget to adjust for inflation innit

Nominal makes more sense for this comparison.

No it doesn't.

Strong argument. But, yes it does.

What's there to adjust? The buying power might be less but this question regards the literal number.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6572 on: March 18, 2020, 10:19:40 PM »
They're part of total return?

VTSAX had adjusted close price of 55.94 on 4-11-17 and 61.36 on 3-17-20.  So we need a 9.7% drop today to match the price on 4-11-17 if I'm doing that right.  S&P down 9.8% as I type, so yeah, top was in.

Don't forget to adjust for inflation innit

Nominal makes more sense for this comparison.

No it doesn't.

Strong argument. But, yes it does.

What's there to adjust? The buying power might be less but this question regards the literal number.

OK here's my reasoning.  The question is whether a S&P500 investor is better or worse off than you were when Thorstach made his mighty prognostication?  To know that, you have to account for dividends and inflation.

SwordGuy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6573 on: March 18, 2020, 10:34:06 PM »

OK here's my reasoning.  The question is whether a S&P500 investor is better or worse off than you were when Thorstach made his mighty prognostication?  To know that, you have to account for dividends and inflation.

I own more shares of stock and have no need to sell it for quite some time, so I'm better off.

Monerexia

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6574 on: March 18, 2020, 10:52:08 PM »
It went down, it is still dropping.......


To paraphrase Herman Wouk, Panic!, in times of danger or in doubt run in circles scream and shout....... or channel Jack Bogle and just do nothing...   I  prefer the later..and the top is still not in.

and it's still dropping

We need a nice, monstrous, five-year sale on stocks. Top, my friend, hope you were in.

might actually get my wish!

Looking more and more likely...

wienerdog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6575 on: March 19, 2020, 05:51:03 AM »
Definitely below where I was when I FIREd.  Will probably start financing my monthly expenditures with cheap margin.  Stocks would have to crash say another 70% before I get a margin call in the first year.  How likely is that?  Not sure I have anything I can sell high at this point even gold and bonds are trashed

RE: PMs - Interesting thing is that silver has crashed so hard, you can hardly buy it anywhere. It is sold out almost everywhere you look, without going to very high premium silver.

I doubt it is sold out they just aren't selling it at that price.  They make very thin margins and only make money through volume.  No way they will sell at $12.15.  Try selling to them at that price and they will buy all day long or offer $3.00 over spot and they will sell.

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6576 on: March 19, 2020, 05:51:42 AM »
I panic bought 2 pairs of sweat pants today. #NYCLockdown

Working from home for 7.5+ hours daily in pajama pants was getting uncomfortable - I also panic bought some sweat pants.

mies

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6577 on: March 19, 2020, 06:46:24 AM »
I panic bought 2 pairs of sweat pants today. #NYCLockdown

Working from home for 7.5+ hours daily in pajama pants was getting uncomfortable - I also panic bought some sweat pants.

I'm just Winnie the Poo-ing it. As long as I stay seated, the people on the video conference will never know.

erutio

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6578 on: March 19, 2020, 09:09:31 AM »
I panic bought 2 pairs of sweat pants today. #NYCLockdown

Working from home for 7.5+ hours daily in pajama pants was getting uncomfortable - I also panic bought some sweat pants.

The mustachian thing to do if you are sheltered at home is to just forgo pants completely. 

Sweat pants top is in!

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6579 on: March 19, 2020, 09:30:40 AM »
I panic bought 2 pairs of sweat pants today. #NYCLockdown

Working from home for 7.5+ hours daily in pajama pants was getting uncomfortable - I also panic bought some sweat pants.

The mustachian thing to do if you are sheltered at home is to just forgo pants completely. 

Sweat pants top is in!

Only during warm weather.  If it's cold you should be turning your thermostat way down and probably be wearing 2 pairs of sweatpants to stay warm.

Either way sweatpants top is definitely in.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6580 on: March 19, 2020, 09:36:47 AM »
The mustachian thing to do if you are sheltered at home is to just forgo pants completely. 

Sweat pants top is in!

Only during warm weather.  If it's cold you should be turning your thermostat way down and probably be wearing 2 pairs of sweatpants to stay warm.

Either way sweatpants top is definitely in.

If you're putting sweatpants on your top, you're doing it wrong. 

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6581 on: March 19, 2020, 10:19:06 AM »
You live how you want to live and I'll live how I want to live.

Davnasty

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6582 on: March 19, 2020, 10:58:47 AM »
They're part of total return?

VTSAX had adjusted close price of 55.94 on 4-11-17 and 61.36 on 3-17-20.  So we need a 9.7% drop today to match the price on 4-11-17 if I'm doing that right.  S&P down 9.8% as I type, so yeah, top was in.

Don't forget to adjust for inflation innit

Nominal makes more sense for this comparison.

No it doesn't.

Strong argument. But, yes it does.

What's there to adjust? The buying power might be less but this question regards the literal number.

OK here's my reasoning.  The question is whether a S&P500 investor is better or worse off than you were when Thorstach made his mighty prognostication?  To know that, you have to account for dividends and inflation.

I thought the question was simply is it lower/higher today than it was at the beginning of the thread.

Dividends should be factored in because they are part of the value of stock. Inflation on the other hand affects all assets. If we were benchmarking against some other investment* we wouldn't adjust stocks for inflation while using nominal value of the benchmark asset. If we adjusted stock value for inflation we would need to adjust benchmark value for inflation as well for a fair comparison.

Those adjustments would negate so why bother?

*Several posters asked where thorstache would move funds but I don't believe the answer was given.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6583 on: March 19, 2020, 11:02:02 AM »
I'm going to make a call.  Chloroquine bottom is in!

BicycleB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6584 on: March 19, 2020, 01:07:50 PM »
Iím being greedy, my IPS says I should rebalance, Iím gonna wait a bit, I think the bottom is not in.

Greed is just as powerful as fear at getting smart people to ignore their IPS.

achvfi

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6585 on: March 19, 2020, 03:10:44 PM »
Check this out folks VTI afterhours is up 28.27%

120.09+0.88 (+0.74%)
At close: 4:00PM EDT
154.04 +33.95 (28.27%)
After hours: 4:58PM EDT

Source: finance.yahoo.com

Bottom is in!

It must be a mistake.

Seems like the mortgage relief for those affected for a year due to hardship might be tipping the slide.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2020, 03:23:37 PM by achvfi »

Mr. Boh

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6586 on: March 19, 2020, 03:44:28 PM »
I panic bought 2 pairs of sweat pants today. #NYCLockdown

Working from home for 7.5+ hours daily in pajama pants was getting uncomfortable - I also panic bought some sweat pants.

I'm just Winnie the Poo-ing it. As long as I stay seated, the people on the video conference will never know.

This really made me laugh. Gives me a whole different image of "top is in"!

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6587 on: March 19, 2020, 03:46:35 PM »
Check this out folks VTI afterhours is up 28.27%

120.09+0.88 (+0.74%)
At close: 4:00PM EDT
154.04 +33.95 (28.27%)
After hours: 4:58PM EDT

Source: finance.yahoo.com

Bottom is in!

It must be a mistake.

Seems like the mortgage relief for those affected for a year due to hardship might be tipping the slide.

I think the decimal point got shifted a couple places

PhilB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6588 on: March 19, 2020, 03:58:36 PM »
I panic bought 2 pairs of sweat pants today. #NYCLockdown

Working from home for 7.5+ hours daily in pajama pants was getting uncomfortable - I also panic bought some sweat pants.

I'm just Winnie the Poo-ing it. As long as I stay seated, the people on the video conference will never know.

This really made me laugh. Gives me a whole different image of "top is in"!

Not so much "top is in" as  "bottom is out"!

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6589 on: March 19, 2020, 04:15:58 PM »
Staying on course tomorrow is payday 'buying C,S & I in TSP tonight....and buying VTIAX and VTSAX tomorrow...







« Last Edit: March 19, 2020, 04:30:31 PM by aboatguy »

BicycleB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6590 on: March 19, 2020, 10:24:20 PM »
Cool photos!

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6591 on: March 19, 2020, 10:30:00 PM »
Cool photos!

+1 - but what are we looking at?  A little explanation goes a long way

Travis

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6592 on: March 19, 2020, 11:34:59 PM »
Cool photos!

+1 - but what are we looking at?  A little explanation goes a long way

Color photo is a resupply ship hooked up to an aircraft carrier. B&W looks like a destroyer sailing very close to the same carrier.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6593 on: March 20, 2020, 11:39:09 AM »
*Several posters asked where thorstache would move funds but I don't believe the answer was given.

If I had to guess, I'd say surgical masks and toilet paper. 

thorstach

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6594 on: March 20, 2020, 02:22:06 PM »
April 2017 top is in, great depression is in

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6595 on: March 20, 2020, 02:38:26 PM »
April 2017 top is in, great depression is in

That aught to be worth a dead cat bounce on Monday.  Thanks 'stach!

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6596 on: March 20, 2020, 03:06:39 PM »
April 2017 top is in, great depression is in
So it is said, and so it shall be done!

Threshkin

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6597 on: March 20, 2020, 04:34:49 PM »
The bottom is now in.

I just capitulated and moved most of my accounts to cash.  Thus ensuring that the bottom is now in.

BDWW

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6598 on: March 20, 2020, 04:39:53 PM »
The bottom is now in.

I just capitulated and moved most of my accounts to cash.  Thus ensuring that the bottom is now in.

Weird I just transferred Funds in my 401K from money market(cash) to index (stock).
The money market allocation had risen to almost 6% (3% allocated per paycheck currently), so I transferred 50% of it into a SP500 and midcap growth fund.

Threshkin

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6599 on: March 20, 2020, 04:43:51 PM »
The bottom is now in.

I just capitulated and moved most of my accounts to cash.  Thus ensuring that the bottom is now in.

Weird I just transferred Funds in my 401K from money market(cash) to index (stock).
The money market allocation had risen to almost 6% (3% allocated per paycheck currently), so I transferred 50% of it into a SP500 and midcap growth fund.

Yup, bottom is in.