Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 1463766 times)

ExitViaTheCashRamp

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6750 on: April 28, 2020, 08:03:52 AM »
"We think it is time to maybe open up one shop in twenty in some of the locked down countries"

All worldwide indexes go up another 1% or more, S&P passes the 2900 mark again.

 If there was ever a time "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" this is it. Honestly, why is the S&P now at more or less the same as it was a year ago ? Crazy world we live in .... TOP IS IN !!

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6751 on: April 28, 2020, 10:24:34 AM »
I missed the old Italian man - needed Google. Thank you for bringing him up.

His philosophy clearly applies to the top. Those who believe the inexorable march of progress will expire in a blaze of hubris. Today's market, so temptingly close to the top, beckons us to folly. Top is in!!!
Joseph Heller top is definitely in!
Not Major Major Major Major top is in?

BigMoneyJim

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6752 on: April 28, 2020, 02:26:22 PM »
If there was ever a time "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" this is it. Honestly, why is the S&P now at more or less the same as it was a year ago ? Crazy world we live in .... TOP IS IN !!

Yep. In times like these, I love being a passive investor. I'm just watching to see if hit hits October 2019 or December 2019 levels, in each case I have a limit order to inject a little more cash into my cushion.

I can't imagine why it should hit either before the order expires, but I can't imagine why it would be where it is now, either. I've just learned to deal with an irrational world, for the most part.

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6753 on: April 28, 2020, 04:38:28 PM »
If there was ever a time "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" this is it. Honestly, why is the S&P now at more or less the same as it was a year ago ? Crazy world we live in .... TOP IS IN !!

Yep. In times like these, I love being a passive investor. I'm just watching to see if hit hits October 2019 or December 2019 levels, in each case I have a limit order to inject a little more cash into my cushion.

I can't imagine why it should hit either before the order expires, but I can't imagine why it would be where it is now, either. I've just learned to deal with an irrational world, for the most part.

lol?

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6754 on: April 28, 2020, 04:41:32 PM »
"We think it is time to maybe open up one shop in twenty in some of the locked down countries"

All worldwide indexes go up another 1% or more, S&P passes the 2900 mark again.

 If there was ever a time "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" this is it. Honestly, why is the S&P now at more or less the same as it was a year ago ? Crazy world we live in .... TOP IS IN !!

The market was irrational back in February. This is full on, get out the straitjacket, bat**** crazy!

The COVID 19 Bat**** TOP is IN!

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6755 on: April 28, 2020, 07:10:36 PM »
"We think it is time to maybe open up one shop in twenty in some of the locked down countries"

All worldwide indexes go up another 1% or more, S&P passes the 2900 mark again.

 If there was ever a time "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" this is it. Honestly, why is the S&P now at more or less the same as it was a year ago ? Crazy world we live in .... TOP IS IN !!

The market was irrational back in February. This is full on, get out the straitjacket, bat**** crazy!

The COVID 19 Bat**** TOP is IN!

Batsoup crazy?

jeroly

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6756 on: April 29, 2020, 03:56:11 AM »


The COVID 19 Bat**** TOP is IN!

Batsoup [...]?
COVID-19 batsoup... the official soup of the Wuhan wet market!

COVID-19 batsoup top is in!
« Last Edit: April 29, 2020, 03:58:39 AM by jeroly »

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6757 on: April 29, 2020, 06:42:01 PM »
The S&P 500 is up 31% in just over a month! We are on our way to the biggest top ever! It is going to be amazing! Many people are saying they are excited.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6758 on: April 29, 2020, 10:59:34 PM »
Batsoup - the cause of COVID-20.  Maybe throw some pork and a pangolin in the pot for a little extra flavor.

wienerdog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6759 on: April 30, 2020, 03:55:10 PM »
Bottom is in people!

We now have cure for COVID-19 proposed by orange man Dr Trump himself. Its injecting disinfectant into human bodies and exposing body insides to powerful UV light.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gn6LbtgVDMY

Don't laugh.  I bought a bunch of AYTU March 2nd.  To the mooooon, no UVA top is in!  ďPeople who refer to out-of-the-box see the box..... People who don't know the box even exists are the innovative thinkers.Ē  Lisa Goldenberg

wienerdog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6760 on: May 01, 2020, 06:55:08 AM »

bthewalls

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6761 on: May 07, 2020, 04:53:26 PM »
The S&P 500 is up 31% in just over a month! We are on our way to the biggest top ever! It is going to be amazing! Many people are saying they are excited.

Donít they say the year before a market crash has epic growth?....did dalio say that....?

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6762 on: May 08, 2020, 09:49:49 AM »
The S&P 500 is up 31% in just over a month! We are on our way to the biggest top ever! It is going to be amazing! Many people are saying they are excited.

Donít they say the year before a market crash has epic growth?....did dalio say that....?
Does that mean the top is just about in?

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6763 on: May 08, 2020, 10:06:56 AM »
The S&P 500 is up 31% in just over a month! We are on our way to the biggest top ever! It is going to be amazing! Many people are saying they are excited.

Donít they say the year before a market crash has epic growth?....did dalio say that....?
Does that mean the top is just about in?

Just as it was in 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017, and 2019. 

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6764 on: May 08, 2020, 10:15:42 AM »
The S&P 500 is up 31% in just over a month! We are on our way to the biggest top ever! It is going to be amazing! Many people are saying they are excited.

Donít they say the year before a market crash has epic growth?....did dalio say that....?
Does that mean the top is just about in?

Just as it was in 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017, and 2019.

But this time itís different!

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6765 on: May 08, 2020, 02:19:26 PM »
The S&P 500 is up 31% in just over a month! We are on our way to the biggest top ever! It is going to be amazing! Many people are saying they are excited.

Donít they say the year before a market crash has epic growth?....did dalio say that....?
Does that mean the top is just about in?

Just as it was in 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017, and 2019.

But this time itís different!

It definitely is.  thorstach told us so.

Tyson

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6766 on: May 08, 2020, 04:56:25 PM »
It was fun to watch everyone freak out even if it was short lived.

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6767 on: May 08, 2020, 07:19:41 PM »
I'm not convinced the freaking out is over.  It plummeted and everyone freaked out because of the virus and shut downs and anticipated economic carnage. Then the market had the best month ever...while the virus continued to rage on killings tens of thousands more people, record unemployment, and continued economic shut downs.  It makes no fucking sense and current valuations seem disconnected from reality.

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6768 on: May 08, 2020, 08:06:23 PM »
I'm not convinced the freaking out is over.  It plummeted and everyone freaked out because of the virus and shut downs and anticipated economic carnage. Then the market had the best month ever...while the virus continued to rage on killings tens of thousands more people, record unemployment, and continued economic shut downs.  It makes no fucking sense and current valuations seem disconnected from reality.

I hear this opinion a lot, but that means, if many folks have this opinion, that it is likely to NOT go down. If everyone thinks it'll go down... it won't right?

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6769 on: May 08, 2020, 08:19:47 PM »
I'm not convinced the freaking out is over.  It plummeted and everyone freaked out because of the virus and shut downs and anticipated economic carnage. Then the market had the best month ever...while the virus continued to rage on killings tens of thousands more people, record unemployment, and continued economic shut downs.  It makes no fucking sense and current valuations seem disconnected from reality.

I hear this opinion a lot, but that means, if many folks have this opinion, that it is likely to NOT go down. If everyone thinks it'll go down... it won't right?

My completely amateur thought is maybe the smart money expects inflation.  But that wouldnít explain treasury yields

TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6770 on: May 08, 2020, 08:23:49 PM »
I'm not convinced the freaking out is over.  It plummeted and everyone freaked out because of the virus and shut downs and anticipated economic carnage. Then the market had the best month ever...while the virus continued to rage on killings tens of thousands more people, record unemployment, and continued economic shut downs.  It makes no fucking sense and current valuations seem disconnected from reality.

I hear this opinion a lot, but that means, if many folks have this opinion, that it is likely to NOT go down. If everyone thinks it'll go down... it won't right?

My completely amateur thought is maybe the smart money expects inflation.  But that wouldnít explain treasury yields
They can hardly be called yields anymore - hardly different than holding cash.

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6771 on: May 08, 2020, 08:32:16 PM »
I'm not convinced the freaking out is over.  It plummeted and everyone freaked out because of the virus and shut downs and anticipated economic carnage. Then the market had the best month ever...while the virus continued to rage on killings tens of thousands more people, record unemployment, and continued economic shut downs.  It makes no fucking sense and current valuations seem disconnected from reality.

I hear this opinion a lot, but that means, if many folks have this opinion, that it is likely to NOT go down. If everyone thinks it'll go down... it won't right?

My completely amateur thought is maybe the smart money expects inflation.  But that wouldnít explain treasury yields


maizefolk

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6772 on: May 08, 2020, 09:08:07 PM »
I'm not convinced the freaking out is over.  It plummeted and everyone freaked out because of the virus and shut downs and anticipated economic carnage. Then the market had the best month ever...while the virus continued to rage on killings tens of thousands more people, record unemployment, and continued economic shut downs.  It makes no fucking sense and current valuations seem disconnected from reality.

I hear this opinion a lot, but that means, if many folks have this opinion, that it is likely to NOT go down. If everyone thinks it'll go down... it won't right?

My completely amateur thought is maybe the smart money expects inflation.  But that wouldnít explain treasury yields

I had the same (completely amateur) thought. Who knows if it is right or not.

If that were true, the two arguments to explain the low yields of treasury bonds would be 1) enough money poring in from overseas with very different goals and investment theses or 2) The federal reserve did promise to buy "as much government-backed debt as needed to bolster the markets for housing and Treasury bonds" back in March. Maybe this is what that unlimited buying looks like?

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6773 on: May 08, 2020, 10:05:54 PM »
or 2) The federal reserve did promise to buy "as much government-backed debt as needed to bolster the markets for housing and Treasury bonds" back in March. Maybe this is what that unlimited buying looks like?

Bingo.

The Fed is now the lender of last resort to all businesses, not just banks. Take the lessons and quickly deployable lending facilities from prior financial crises and remove the moral hazard associated with those loans, and you've got this justifiable approach to keeping the world economy from free falling into the abyss.

UnleashHell

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6774 on: May 09, 2020, 07:39:24 AM »
I don't get the Dalio worship. he did ok over a decade ago but last year his main fund returned nothing and he has already admitted that the drop due to the corona virus caught them unawares.


guess the top was in....

oh yeah January he said "CASH IS TRASH"


Sure. let me worship him.
« Last Edit: May 09, 2020, 07:41:17 AM by UnleashHell »

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6775 on: May 09, 2020, 07:49:12 AM »
I expect the market to massively tank, and am still unsure why that hasn't happened.  Of course, my approach either way is the same - keep investing at pre-determined asset allocations.  But it has really been reinforcing that I don't know what the fuck is going on.  In a rational world, the top would have been in a couple months ago.

UnleashHell

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6776 on: May 09, 2020, 08:13:42 AM »
totaly not rational. as soon as company brought some money back and didn't invest in themselves then the market should have been dropping. however it runs on the next big hit - not whats happening now. I can't predict that so I invest in mutual funds and a few individual stocks where I believe the underlying fundamentals can hold up regardless of the stock market thoughts.

Lets face it - the face of the stock market is large font headlines and Cramer - there really is little room for logic.

The top is in.

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6777 on: May 09, 2020, 08:14:57 AM »
I expect the market to massively tank, and am still unsure why that hasn't happened.  Of course, my approach either way is the same - keep investing at pre-determined asset allocations.  But it has really been reinforcing that I don't know what the fuck is going on.  In a rational world, the top would have been in a couple months ago.

This. I know an absurd amount of people that have been laid off.  Most of my family is out of work.  My employer has laid off almost 10% of our employees over the last 2 months, and we are doing better than most businesses I know.  All the economic forecasts look dire.  I'm experiencing broken/disrupted supply chains every time I go shopping.  Most of the world is still under some kind of lock down with tons of businesses not allowed to open their doors.  Coronavirus cases have gone from 100k to 4M, and the deaths from 4k to over 270k.  And somehow the market has gone up almost 30% in the same time period. It's so fucking bonkers.


ender

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6778 on: May 09, 2020, 08:30:57 AM »
I expect the market to massively tank, and am still unsure why that hasn't happened.  Of course, my approach either way is the same - keep investing at pre-determined asset allocations.  But it has really been reinforcing that I don't know what the fuck is going on.  In a rational world, the top would have been in a couple months ago.

This. I know an absurd amount of people that have been laid off.  Most of my family is out of work.  My employer has laid off almost 10% of our employees over the last 2 months, and we are doing better than most businesses I know.  All the economic forecasts look dire.  I'm experiencing broken/disrupted supply chains every time I go shopping.  Most of the world is still under some kind of lock down with tons of businesses not allowed to open their doors.  Coronavirus cases have gone from 100k to 4M, and the deaths from 4k to over 270k.  And somehow the market has gone up almost 30% in the same time period. It's so fucking bonkers.


This isn't a fair comparison. The SP500 is still down more than 10% off the pre-COVID peak.

What is unclear to me (and apparently everyone) is what the longer term economic damage will be.

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6779 on: May 09, 2020, 08:50:19 AM »
Right, so either the initial drop was completely irrational, or the last months partial recovery is completely irrational, or some combination.  I'm still not understanding the crazy growth though because things seem like they've gotten significantly worse in the last couple months. 

Either way the top is in. 

achvfi

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6780 on: May 09, 2020, 08:56:21 AM »
I expect the market to massively tank, and am still unsure why that hasn't happened.  Of course, my approach either way is the same - keep investing at pre-determined asset allocations.  But it has really been reinforcing that I don't know what the fuck is going on.  In a rational world, the top would have been in a couple months ago.

This. I know an absurd amount of people that have been laid off.  Most of my family is out of work.  My employer has laid off almost 10% of our employees over the last 2 months, and we are doing better than most businesses I know.  All the economic forecasts look dire.  I'm experiencing broken/disrupted supply chains every time I go shopping.  Most of the world is still under some kind of lock down with tons of businesses not allowed to open their doors.  Coronavirus cases have gone from 100k to 4M, and the deaths from 4k to over 270k.  And somehow the market has gone up almost 30% in the same time period. It's so fucking bonkers.


This isn't a fair comparison. The SP500 is still down more than 10% off the pre-COVID peak.

What is unclear to me (and apparently everyone) is what the longer term economic damage will be.

What I observed is all is not as simple as it seems. You would think healthcare would be busy as hell, but no, as people not seeking healthcare there are huge layoffs in that sector. At the same time insurance industry is making boatload of money while not paying out much. Some restaurants are busier than ever with takeout while having lower costs of not having to maintain dining service.

It seems to me most companies on public stock markets are having impacts that are temporary. People and companies are  coming out of initial shock, they now know what to expect going forward and the markets are forward looking.
« Last Edit: May 09, 2020, 08:59:03 AM by achvfi »

maizefolk

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6781 on: May 09, 2020, 09:17:31 AM »
Right, so either the initial drop was completely irrational, or the last months partial recovery is completely irrational, or some combination.

I don't think this necessarily follows. The market cannot predict the outcome of future events before they happen.

One could make a rational case for the market to drop a lot on early news of COVID spreading in the USA and Europe when we didn't know how bad it was going to be. And another rational case for the market to move back up once new information came to light. Specifically:

1) The US healthcare system doesn't appear to be collapsing in the way many feared it would in the period where Italy was still experiencing exponential growth in daily deaths.

2) Congress passed a $2T stimulus package. A week before it passed I never would have guessed anything like that would ever get through McConnell's senate. But once it passed it decreased the risk of individual companies going bankrupt and increased the risk of significant future inflation.

So as I said, I could see the initial crash being rational with the information the market had at the time. And I could see an subsequent increase being rational with the two new pieces of information that later became available.

That said I never would have expected the market to be down only 10% from the peak in the situation we now find ourselves in. So I'm not arguing that it is rational. Just that isn't necessarily irrational.

ender

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6782 on: May 09, 2020, 09:50:32 AM »
What I observed is all is not as simple as it seems. You would think healthcare would be busy as hell, but no, as people not seeking healthcare there are huge layoffs in that sector. At the same time insurance industry is making boatload of money while not paying out much. Some restaurants are busier than ever with takeout while having lower costs of not having to maintain dining service.

It seems to me most companies on public stock markets are having impacts that are temporary. People and companies are  coming out of initial shock, they now know what to expect going forward and the markets are forward looking.

The irony of all this is that healthcare is massively suffering.

"Flatten the curve" to save healthcare might cause major issues for hospitals and healthcare because of postponing/cancelling so much elective procedures.

Our family/friends in the medical field are some of the most worried about their jobs.

secondcor521

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6783 on: May 09, 2020, 12:19:04 PM »
The irony of all this is that healthcare is massively suffering.

"Flatten the curve" to save healthcare might cause major issues for hospitals and healthcare because of postponing/cancelling so much elective procedures.

Our family/friends in the medical field are some of the most worried about their jobs.

Indeed.  My neighbor is a nurse in a local hospital.  Their census about a week ago was around 100 patients when normally it averages 370.  This was due mostly to elective procedures being postponed, but also may have been caused somewhat by people rather trying to avoid hospitals, or fewer accidents due to less driving and less outdoor activity.  They were furloughing staff.

I'm sure our governor got an earful about this situation, and I haven't checked the latest guidelines but I bet elective surgeries are one of the first things to come back.  In a way, pausing elective surgeries in the first place may have been a bad idea if the backlog that builds up either causes additional pain and suffering among those waiting and/or it creates a situation where the hospital can't handle a second wave plus a bunch of deferred elective surgeries.  Oh well.

Oh, and top is in.

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6784 on: May 09, 2020, 12:49:03 PM »

This. I know an absurd amount of people that have been laid off.  Most of my family is out of work.  My employer has laid off almost 10% of our employees over the last 2 months, and we are doing better than most businesses I know.  All the economic forecasts look dire.  I'm experiencing broken/disrupted supply chains every time I go shopping.  Most of the world is still under some kind of lock down with tons of businesses not allowed to open their doors.  Coronavirus cases have gone from 100k to 4M, and the deaths from 4k to over 270k.  And somehow the market has gone up almost 30% in the same time period. It's so fucking bonkers.

This seems so bizarre to me. I know one sonogram technician that was furloughed for a month or so (went back May 1) and an oil company employee whose hours were reduced. Aside from that, I don't know anyone who is not working.

maizefolk

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6785 on: May 09, 2020, 01:14:56 PM »

This. I know an absurd amount of people that have been laid off.  Most of my family is out of work.  My employer has laid off almost 10% of our employees over the last 2 months, and we are doing better than most businesses I know.  All the economic forecasts look dire.  I'm experiencing broken/disrupted supply chains every time I go shopping.  Most of the world is still under some kind of lock down with tons of businesses not allowed to open their doors.  Coronavirus cases have gone from 100k to 4M, and the deaths from 4k to over 270k.  And somehow the market has gone up almost 30% in the same time period. It's so fucking bonkers.

This seems so bizarre to me. I know one sonogram technician that was furloughed for a month or so (went back May 1) and an oil company employee whose hours were reduced. Aside from that, I don't know anyone who is not working.

There's an illusion that the lockdown is a consistent set of policies across the country when the strength of the lockdown actually varies dramatically from one state to the next.

Note that frugalnacho's location is set to the Detroit metro area. Getting less press than NYC but Michigan is getting hit extraordinarily hard by the coronavirus (about one out of every 850 people in Wayne County has already died from the coronavirus). Likely as a result of that, the state is under one of the strictest lockdowns in the country.

Detroit proper (Madison Heights may be different) is also by far the least affluent of America's 20 biggest cities with a median household income of only $31k/year (next lowest is El Paso at $45k/year; national as a whole is $63k/year). Those jobs tend to be the kind it isn't possible to continue to perform remotely.

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6786 on: May 09, 2020, 04:27:31 PM »

This. I know an absurd amount of people that have been laid off.  Most of my family is out of work.  My employer has laid off almost 10% of our employees over the last 2 months, and we are doing better than most businesses I know.  All the economic forecasts look dire.  I'm experiencing broken/disrupted supply chains every time I go shopping.  Most of the world is still under some kind of lock down with tons of businesses not allowed to open their doors.  Coronavirus cases have gone from 100k to 4M, and the deaths from 4k to over 270k.  And somehow the market has gone up almost 30% in the same time period. It's so fucking bonkers.

This seems so bizarre to me. I know one sonogram technician that was furloughed for a month or so (went back May 1) and an oil company employee whose hours were reduced. Aside from that, I don't know anyone who is not working.

There's an illusion that the lockdown is a consistent set of policies across the country when the strength of the lockdown actually varies dramatically from one state to the next.

Note that frugalnacho's location is set to the Detroit metro area. Getting less press than NYC but Michigan is getting hit extraordinarily hard by the coronavirus (about one out of every 850 people in Wayne County has already died from the coronavirus). Likely as a result of that, the state is under one of the strictest lockdowns in the country.

Detroit proper (Madison Heights may be different) is also by far the least affluent of America's 20 biggest cities with a median household income of only $31k/year (next lowest is El Paso at $45k/year; national as a whole is $63k/year). Those jobs tend to be the kind it isn't possible to continue to perform remotely.

Itís almost like we are experiencing really unusual and unprecedented conditions that make it almost impossible to predict how markets will behave.

Unlike normal times when everyone knows that the market will march upward at a nice smooth rate every year with no surprises.

ender

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6787 on: May 09, 2020, 04:58:55 PM »
Unlike normal times when everyone knows that the market will march upward at a nice smooth rate every year with no surprises.

Normal times?

Top is in. Confirmed.

maizefolk

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6788 on: May 10, 2020, 08:50:00 AM »
This seems so bizarre to me. I know one sonogram technician that was furloughed for a month or so (went back May 1) and an oil company employee whose hours were reduced. Aside from that, I don't know anyone who is not working.

Hey @DadJokes here is some more quantitative data from a study that came out on Thursday.



In Michigan 27% of their labor force have filed for unemployment just since March 14th (so less than a month).

In Georgia, Hawaii, and Kentucky, one in three people have filed for unemployment.

States like Colorado and Texas are comparatively much better off with on the order of one out of every eight workers having filed for unemployment so far.

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6789 on: May 10, 2020, 09:27:09 AM »
Yea Michigan is pretty bad, but every other state is also bad.  Even if your personal circle hasn't been hit hard by unemployment it's hard to deny the official numbers.  I also know several people that aren't included in those official stats because they've been unable to file thus far.

bthewalls

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6790 on: May 10, 2020, 04:23:26 PM »
Is it not a no brainer that the ass is gonna fall out of the market really bad over the next 6 to 12 months? If so is it a bad idea to sell to cash now?

I mean, if several million are affected and itís a big issue, what happens when it hits a billion?

maizefolk

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6791 on: May 10, 2020, 04:46:47 PM »
Is it not a no brainer that the ass is gonna fall out of the market really bad over the next 6 to 12 months? If so is it a bad idea to sell to cash now?

If you sell now and the market crashes a lot more in a few months you'll feel like a genius. If you sell now and inflation kicks into high gear you'll feel like an idiot.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2020, 06:01:41 PM by maizeman »

bthewalls

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6792 on: May 10, 2020, 04:51:18 PM »

If you sell now and the market crashes a lot more in a few months you'll feel like a genius. If you see now and inflation kicks into high gear you'll feel like an idiot.
[/quote]

Yeah your right...moment of panic going on!....reading a lot of Dalio and find it hard to totally disregard his warnings
« Last Edit: May 10, 2020, 04:57:13 PM by bthewalls »

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6793 on: May 10, 2020, 04:51:57 PM »
The smart money is selling equities and buying shipping containers of sardines. Inflation-proof and always in demand!

BigMoneyJim

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6794 on: May 10, 2020, 06:14:49 PM »
Yep, figure the economy is taking a hit. But I also recently realized a nominal bear market is not the only way it can go...rapid inflation is another. The cash may go down in value instead of the stonks.

I have no idea which, so I'm sticking with my plan.

CASH TOP IS IN

Edit: In fact, I just canceled one limit order and reduced another to just enough to put me at my planned cash target:

I'm just watching to see if hit hits October 2019 or December 2019 levels, in each case I have a limit order to inject a little more cash into my cushion.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2020, 06:17:22 PM by BigMoneyJim »

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6795 on: May 11, 2020, 01:31:42 AM »
The smart money is selling equities and buying shipping containers of sardines. Inflation-proof and always in demand!

Seems like a lot of work.  I just invest in sardine ETFs.  Ticker: FSHH

maizefolk

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6796 on: May 11, 2020, 06:20:20 AM »
The smart money is selling equities and buying shipping containers of sardines. Inflation-proof and always in demand!

Seems like a lot of work.  I just invest in sardine ETFs.  Ticker: FSHH

Sure it's easier to invest in paper fish assets. But do you really believe they'll have enough physical cans backing up those sardine ETFs when the FSHH hits the fan?

UnleashHell

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6797 on: May 11, 2020, 08:43:30 AM »

If you sell now and the market crashes a lot more in a few months you'll feel like a genius. If you see now and inflation kicks into high gear you'll feel like an idiot.

Yeah your right...moment of panic going on!....reading a lot of Dalio and find it hard to totally disregard his warnings
[/quote]

again - the same Dalio who said "Cash is trash" back in january and dumped into the stock market in Feb??

That guy?

jinga nation

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6798 on: May 11, 2020, 08:54:01 AM »

If you sell now and the market crashes a lot more in a few months you'll feel like a genius. If you see now and inflation kicks into high gear you'll feel like an idiot.

Yeah your right...moment of panic going on!....reading a lot of Dalio and find it hard to totally disregard his warnings

again - the same Dalio who said "Cash is trash" back in january and dumped into the stock market in Feb??

That guy?
[/quote]


He's a Ray of sunshine and doom, simultaneously, defying the laws of physics.
Shit Making Experts.

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6799 on: May 11, 2020, 09:10:11 AM »
The smart money is selling equities and buying shipping containers of sardines. Inflation-proof and always in demand!

Seems like a lot of work.  I just invest in sardine ETFs.  Ticker: FSHH

Sure it's easier to invest in paper fish assets. But do you really believe they'll have enough physical cans backing up those sardine ETFs when the FSHH hits the fan?

Are the sardines already in cans? I would do more research before jumping into the sardine market. It could be a really stinky mistake if you get stuck taking physical delivery of un-refrigerated sardines. I know my neighbors might be unhappy.