Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 679200 times)

ILikeDividends

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3950 on: December 11, 2018, 03:46:15 PM »
Just how much is a gagillion?
1000 x a bazillion.

fattest_foot

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3951 on: December 12, 2018, 09:02:08 AM »
This sounds bad.

After the 'death cross,' the S&P 500 seems to be forming another scary chart pattern

Quote
The chart of the S&P 500, which flashed a scary death cross last week, now appears to be forming a new pattern that could be just as ominous.

The S&P has been forming a "head-and-shoulders" pattern, where the right shoulder seems to be building in the index's recent monthly range of 2,600 to 2,800. The top of the 'head' was when the S&P 500 hit 2,940 in late September. The neckline has been forming in the 2,600 area.

And then this:

Quote
But this could take any Santa Claus rally off the table

I really wish I knew how to read tea leaves do technical analysis.

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3952 on: December 12, 2018, 09:53:11 AM »
Then it will form the "knees and toes" pattern, and we can all return to Kindergarten.

dandarc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3953 on: December 12, 2018, 10:14:08 AM »
Then it will form the "knees and toes" pattern, and we can all return to Kindergarten.
The key is to spot the first knees and toes, so you can fully take advantage of the repeat.

ysette9

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Top is in
« Reply #3954 on: December 12, 2018, 10:47:02 AM »
Then it will form the "knees and toes" pattern, and we can all return to Kindergarten.
The key is to spot the first knees and toes, so you can fully take advantage of the repeat.
It matters how quickly the pattern forms and whether you can move fast enough to catch it. When we sing “head shoulders knees and toes” (okay, it is really « tête épaules genoux et pieds ») with my 4 year-old at bedtime she often isn’t fast enough. I’ll be singing “knees and toes” while she is still touching her shoulders. She’ll need to wait until she is older before she can start accurately calling market tops.

fattest_foot

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3955 on: December 12, 2018, 02:12:21 PM »
It matters how quickly the pattern forms and whether you can move fast enough to catch it. When we sing “head shoulders knees and toes” (okay, it is really « tête épaules genoux et pieds ») with my 4 year-old at bedtime she often isn’t fast enough. I’ll be singing “knees and toes” while she is still touching her shoulders. She’ll need to wait until she is older before she can start accurately calling market tops.

This sounds like classic market timing. I think it's probably time you sit your 4 year-old down for a very serious conversation.

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3956 on: December 14, 2018, 12:48:25 PM »
These are adjacent stories on CNBC right now:

Quote
LATEST NEWS
The S&P 500 could drop another 20% in 6 to 18 months, says Leuthold's CIO 4 hrs ago - CNBC.com
UBS predicts a S&P 500 rally next year that's 20% higher than current levels 7 hrs ago - CNBC.com


dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3957 on: December 14, 2018, 01:52:31 PM »
These are adjacent stories on CNBC right now:

Quote
LATEST NEWS
The S&P 500 could drop another 20% in 6 to 18 months, says Leuthold's CIO 4 hrs ago - CNBC.com
UBS predicts a S&P 500 rally next year that's 20% higher than current levels 7 hrs ago - CNBC.com

20 - 20 = 0, therefore top is in.

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3958 on: December 14, 2018, 02:12:56 PM »
Ah, it all makes sense now.

Le Barbu

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3959 on: December 16, 2018, 05:55:55 AM »
Then it will form the "knees and toes" pattern, and we can all return to Kindergarten.
The key is to spot the first knees and toes, so you can fully take advantage of the repeat.
It matters how quickly the pattern forms and whether you can move fast enough to catch it. When we sing “head shoulders knees and toes” (okay, it is really « tête épaules genoux et pieds orteils ») with my 4 year-old at bedtime she often isn’t fast enough. I’ll be singing “knees and toes” while she is still touching her shoulders. She’ll need to wait until she is older before she can start accurately calling market tops.

Corrigé


Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3961 on: December 16, 2018, 07:38:06 PM »

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3962 on: December 16, 2018, 07:44:01 PM »
https://stockcharts.com/articles/chartwatchers/2018/12/want-to-know-the-difference-between-a-correction-and-a-bear-market.html

See, this is why I figure thorstach is not (an intentional) troll, reading articles on watching charts on stockcharts.com.  Why on earth would you want opinions on spotting corrections/bear markets from a site dedicated to chartist nonsense unless you've been genuinely trying to outsmart/time the market this whole time?  I'm not saying the market can't be outsmarted, it just hasn't been by you, and won't be by many here because this is safe and boring, but guaranteed to work MMM, not chartistbullshitgetrichquick.com.

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3963 on: December 16, 2018, 08:19:19 PM »
These are adjacent stories on CNBC right now:

Quote
LATEST NEWS
The S&P 500 could drop another 20% in 6 to 18 months, says Leuthold's CIO 4 hrs ago - CNBC.com
UBS predicts a S&P 500 rally next year that's 20% higher than current levels 7 hrs ago - CNBC.com

Proof that traders are starting to use quantum computing. Top is both in and out.

ILikeDividends

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2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3966 on: December 17, 2018, 05:25:13 AM »
Anyone else getting excited at the possibility of VTI for $100/share?

Assetup

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3967 on: December 17, 2018, 11:22:17 AM »
Anyone else getting excited at the possibility of VTI for $100/share?
I'm excited for $100/share but why stop there?  Let's shoot for a nice sale of $50/share


OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3969 on: December 17, 2018, 01:18:40 PM »
You know what, it might very well be a bear market.  Better that it happen now than in my first few years of FIRE.

Threshkin

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3970 on: December 17, 2018, 02:20:42 PM »
You know what, it might very well be a bear market.  Better that it happen now than in my first few years of FIRE.

This is my first few years of FIRE. 

Good thing I have a substantial reserve.

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3971 on: December 17, 2018, 02:25:47 PM »
You know what, it might very well be a bear market.  Better that it happen now than in my first few years of FIRE.

This is my first few years of FIRE. 

Good thing I have a substantial reserve.

I retired in late August, right at the peak.  Do you think I should be worried?  So far, I'm not worried.

slow hand slow plan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3972 on: December 17, 2018, 02:58:05 PM »
He is just waiting for the audio book to come out so he can rake in that top earning money

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3973 on: December 17, 2018, 03:06:23 PM »
Sol, you're doomed buddy.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3974 on: December 17, 2018, 03:31:39 PM »
Sol, you're doomed buddy.

We're all doomed. 

Steeze

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3975 on: December 17, 2018, 03:35:38 PM »
Can't tell whether I should panic buy - just fully funded DW's Roth ... just sitting there in cash in Vangaurd, wanting to be used. IPS says buy!!! What if the shares are cheaper tomorrow !?!?! So stressful.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3976 on: December 17, 2018, 03:55:31 PM »
Statistics say you should put it in, Thorstach says to wait till the bottom.

frugledoc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3977 on: December 17, 2018, 03:58:27 PM »
Can't tell whether I should panic buy - just fully funded DW's Roth ... just sitting there in cash in Vangaurd, wanting to be used. IPS says buy!!! What if the shares are cheaper tomorrow !?!?! So stressful.

Not stressful, just buy.

Steeze

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3978 on: December 17, 2018, 04:35:57 PM »
Statistics say you should put it in, Thorstach says to wait till the bottom.

Thorstach communicates directly with the Top, his words should be heeded!!

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3979 on: December 17, 2018, 05:10:33 PM »
You know what, it might very well be a bear market.  Better that it happen now than in my first few years of FIRE.

This is my first few years of FIRE. 

Good thing I have a substantial reserve.

I retired in late August, right at the peak.  Do you think I should be worried?  So far, I'm not worried.

Let me know when go back to work so I can call the bottom

Maenad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3980 on: December 18, 2018, 08:43:11 AM »
Sounds like we need: Top Surgery

https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2018/12/18/18141006/daniel-ortberg-essay-top-surgery

Quote
Is it serious, doc? Yeah, son. I’m afraid there’s nothing to do but schedule you for top surgery.

What parts of me will be affected, doc? The top.

Threshkin

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3981 on: December 18, 2018, 09:48:20 AM »
You know what, it might very well be a bear market.  Better that it happen now than in my first few years of FIRE.

This is my first few years of FIRE. 

Good thing I have a substantial reserve.

I retired in late August, right at the peak.  Do you think I should be worried?  So far, I'm not worried.

My philosophy towards life is, "expect/plan for the worst possible outcome".  That way I am almost always happy that things worked out better than planned. 

Short Version: I like being happy so I plan for the worst.


dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3982 on: December 18, 2018, 10:33:16 AM »
You know what, it might very well be a bear market.  Better that it happen now than in my first few years of FIRE.

This is my first few years of FIRE. 

Good thing I have a substantial reserve.

I retired in late August, right at the peak.  Do you think I should be worried?  So far, I'm not worried.

My philosophy towards life is, "expect/plan for the worst possible outcome".  That way I am almost always happy that things worked out better than planned. 

Short Version: I like being happy so I plan for the worst.

[serious] It's good to make preparations against worst-case scenarios, but too much thinking in those terms is bad for your mental health [/serious]

Threshkin

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3983 on: December 18, 2018, 10:47:36 AM »
You know what, it might very well be a bear market.  Better that it happen now than in my first few years of FIRE.

This is my first few years of FIRE. 

Good thing I have a substantial reserve.

I retired in late August, right at the peak.  Do you think I should be worried?  So far, I'm not worried.

My philosophy towards life is, "expect/plan for the worst possible outcome".  That way I am almost always happy that things worked out better than planned. 

Short Version: I like being happy so I plan for the worst.

[serious] It's good to make preparations against worst-case scenarios, but too much thinking in those terms is bad for your mental health [/serious]

I don't stress over it.  I hate stress.  I just make very conservative plans and then relax because I can count on reality usually being better than expected.

What I don't understand is those people who always plan/hope for the best possible outcome.  They are almost always disappointed by the results.

Example: 

A) Budget at a 3% WR.  Then be happy because there is always extra for unexpected expenses/adventures.   or

B) Budget at a 6% WR and always be stressing because money is tight or the market is down.

I choose A because it is less stressful. 

goosefraba1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3984 on: December 18, 2018, 10:56:17 AM »
If Trump is solely responsible for the market rise (as he has alluded multiple times), is he also solely responsible for the market drop? Or is that just consequential to the split congress?

fattest_foot

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3985 on: December 18, 2018, 10:58:32 AM »
If Trump is solely responsible for the market rise (as he has alluded multiple times), is he also solely responsible for the market drop? Or is that just consequential to the split congress?

It's probably more due to the Fed.

Dabnasty

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3986 on: December 18, 2018, 11:39:13 AM »
You know what, it might very well be a bear market.  Better that it happen now than in my first few years of FIRE.

This is my first few years of FIRE. 

Good thing I have a substantial reserve.

I retired in late August, right at the peak.  Do you think I should be worried?  So far, I'm not worried.

My philosophy towards life is, "expect/plan for the worst possible outcome".  That way I am almost always happy that things worked out better than planned. 

Short Version: I like being happy so I plan for the worst.

[serious] It's good to make preparations against worst-case scenarios, but too much thinking in those terms is bad for your mental health [/serious]

I don't stress over it.  I hate stress.  I just make very conservative plans and then relax because I can count on reality usually being better than expected.

What I don't understand is those people who always plan/hope for the best possible outcome.  They are almost always disappointed by the results.

Example: 

A) Budget at a 3% WR.  Then [work an additional 5 years and] be happy because there is always extra for unexpected expenses/adventures.   or

B) Budget at a 6% WR and always be stressing because money is tight or the market is down.

I choose A because it is less stressful.

I would actually agree with your mindset of low expectations = no disappointment however I added an important point to your comparison.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3987 on: December 18, 2018, 12:08:14 PM »
If Trump is solely responsible for the market rise (as he has alluded multiple times), is he also solely responsible for the market drop? Or is that just consequential to the split congress?

It's probably more due to the Fed.

If only trump had the power to appoint a dove to the fed... oh well

Threshkin

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3988 on: December 18, 2018, 01:00:36 PM »
You know what, it might very well be a bear market.  Better that it happen now than in my first few years of FIRE.

This is my first few years of FIRE. 

Good thing I have a substantial reserve.

I retired in late August, right at the peak.  Do you think I should be worried?  So far, I'm not worried.

My philosophy towards life is, "expect/plan for the worst possible outcome".  That way I am almost always happy that things worked out better than planned. 

Short Version: I like being happy so I plan for the worst.

[serious] It's good to make preparations against worst-case scenarios, but too much thinking in those terms is bad for your mental health [/serious]

I don't stress over it.  I hate stress.  I just make very conservative plans and then relax because I can count on reality usually being better than expected.

What I don't understand is those people who always plan/hope for the best possible outcome.  They are almost always disappointed by the results.

Example: 

A) Budget at a 3% WR.  Then [work an additional 5 years and] be happy because there is always extra for unexpected expenses/adventures.   or

B) Budget at a 6% WR and always be stressing because money is tight or the market is down.

I choose A because it is less stressful.

I would actually agree with your mindset of low expectations = no disappointment however I added an important point to your comparison.
Agreed and understood.  That was a trade off I was willing to make.  I was not in a race to reach the RE portion of FIRE.  I set a target date, and under estimated our saving ability.  We hit the 4% FI well before our target RE date and just smiled.  I was lucky the Retirement Police didn't catch up with me though!
« Last Edit: December 18, 2018, 01:03:20 PM by Threshkin »

caracarn

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3989 on: December 18, 2018, 01:31:17 PM »
And more against market timing (from Morning Brew today. lesson to be learned?  Stick with index funds and stop trying to find the magic):

Good News/Bad News: Hedge Fund Edition
Let's start with the good news for hedge funds: They raised a record $28 billion for new launches in the first half of this year, according to Absolute Return.

Plus, hedge funds usually shine when markets turn volatile. Seems like 2018 would be a boom, then, given that the market has seen the most big intraday swings in a single year since 2011.

But here's the bad news: The $3.24 trillion industry just isn't making much money. In fact, hedge funds have fallen behind lower-cost passive investment products over the last decade.

The average hedge fund lost 2% through November of this year, compared to a 3.24% gain in the S&P 500.
Adding insult to injury, hedge funds suffered their worst monthly performance in three years in October, down 2.35% on average.
Bottom line: Volatility should have boosted hedge funds, but they're now on track for their worst year since 2011.

toganet

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3990 on: December 19, 2018, 07:33:23 AM »
If Trump is solely responsible for the market rise (as he has alluded multiple times), is he also solely responsible for the market drop? Or is that just consequential to the split congress?

Trump's an expert at the game "Heads I Win, Tails You Lose." So he's definitely responsible for all the good stuff, but anything bad is someone else's fault.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3991 on: December 19, 2018, 02:04:52 PM »
Bottom has fallen out!

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3992 on: December 19, 2018, 02:59:20 PM »
Looks like a September 2017 level.

Kalergie

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3993 on: December 19, 2018, 10:34:51 PM »
When people talk about stock market predictions, I always like to bring up a January 12, 2016 warning of RBS which was highly publicized in the media. The title was: Sell everything ahead of stock market crash! say RBS economists

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/12/sell-everything-ahead-of-stock-market-crash-say-rbs-economists

They predicted a "cataclysmic year" where stock markets could fall 20% and oil could slump to $16.

By the way, the Dow Jones Index was around 16,400 on that date. The year closed at 19,800. Where is it today, RBS? That's not to say, if the market had crashed, RBS would have had indeed any part in predicting it.

« Last Edit: December 19, 2018, 10:36:53 PM by Kalergie »

thorstach

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3994 on: December 20, 2018, 09:44:01 AM »

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3995 on: December 20, 2018, 09:48:18 AM »
Your timing is perfect.

dandarc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3996 on: December 20, 2018, 09:54:10 AM »
That is an awesome website.

LPG

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3997 on: December 20, 2018, 10:12:15 AM »
Interesting. Assuming that chart is correctly predicting a bear market or recession (About that assumption...), then it looks like the top was in a few months and >10% ago. Even without trying to predict the future we can tell that the "top is in" conclusion is wrong, or questionably useful at best.

4alpacas

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3998 on: December 20, 2018, 10:12:57 AM »

Trunk top is in! SELL NOW!

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3999 on: December 20, 2018, 11:58:28 AM »
Drop is in.