Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 1001718 times)

ILikeDividends

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 459
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4800 on: July 29, 2019, 12:05:21 PM »
Thorstach hasn't been active on the forum since May 30th.
Where did he go ?

I think he got himself captured to get some straight answers out of the market

Nonsense.  A spirit as free as Thorstach can never be caged!  Also, top is in.

I'm pretty sure he's holed up in his undetectable bunker now.  You wouldn't want to be posting on the internet from an undetectable bunker, right?

You would if you had an undetectable IP address.

« Last Edit: July 29, 2019, 12:07:44 PM by ILikeDividends »

EscapeVelocity2020

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2405
  • Age: 46
  • Location: Houston
    • EscapeVelocity2020
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4801 on: July 31, 2019, 02:04:55 PM »
Wow, Thorstach really missed his chance today to actually *call the top*

2Birds1Stone

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5674
  • Age: 1
  • Location: Earth
  • K Thnx Bye
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4802 on: July 31, 2019, 02:07:09 PM »
The top was clearly in this morning.

EscapeVelocity2020

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2405
  • Age: 46
  • Location: Houston
    • EscapeVelocity2020
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4803 on: July 31, 2019, 04:11:48 PM »
The top was clearly in this morning.

I do love tops, I hope they keep on coming....

Maenad

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 532
  • Location: Minneapolis 'burbs
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4804 on: July 31, 2019, 04:21:36 PM »
Aww... I was hoping he was back. You guys got my hopes up and then dashed them!

Hope top is in. :-(

JAYSLOL

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1234
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4805 on: July 31, 2019, 04:44:10 PM »
Wow, Thorstach really missed his chance today to actually *call the top*

He’ll be back if tomorrow the market goes down 2% or more, and if history continues to repeat, his return will be followed immediately by the markets rebounding to a new top. 

hadabeardonce

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 291
  • It's never too early to learn the value of money.
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4806 on: July 31, 2019, 05:03:28 PM »
Wow, Thorstach really missed his chance today to actually *call the top*

He’ll be back if tomorrow the market goes down 2% or more, and if history continues to repeat, his return will be followed immediately by the markets rebounding to a new top.
I've been paying attention to PE Ratios, but Thorstach appearances are an economic indicator that I hadn't considered.

Loren Ver

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 558
  • Location: Midwest USA
  • I Retired. Yah!
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4807 on: July 31, 2019, 05:17:37 PM »
DOOOOOOM

2Birds1Stone

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5674
  • Age: 1
  • Location: Earth
  • K Thnx Bye
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4808 on: July 31, 2019, 06:40:23 PM »
DOOOOOMS'day

dragoncar

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8804
  • Registered member
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4809 on: July 31, 2019, 07:05:59 PM »
The fed really screwed up my end-of-month NW spreadsheet

Steeze

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 362
  • Age: 32
  • Location: NYC Area of Earth
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4810 on: July 31, 2019, 08:06:22 PM »
The fed really screwed up my end-of-month NW spreadsheet

Right? I should have done it yesterday.

Threshkin

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1033
  • Location: Colorado
    • My Journal
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4811 on: July 31, 2019, 09:06:20 PM »
The fed really screwed up my end-of-month NW spreadsheet

Right? I should have done it yesterday.

I am glad I only update my spreadsheet once every 6 months!

dragoncar

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8804
  • Registered member
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4812 on: August 01, 2019, 01:10:21 AM »
The fed really screwed up my end-of-month NW spreadsheet

Right? I should have done it yesterday.

I am glad I only update my spreadsheet once every 6 months!

I'm starting to think I should only update it at the top.  That way the top will always be in, as it is and should be.

Bateaux

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1504
  • Location: Port Vincent
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4813 on: August 01, 2019, 05:32:18 AM »
The fed really screwed up my end-of-month NW spreadsheet

Right? I should have done it yesterday.

I am glad I only update my spreadsheet once every 6 months!

I'm starting to think I should only update it at the top.  That way the top will always be in, as it is and should be.

Good plan.  I'm down 20k!  Like almost a percent, top better not be in.

RWD

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3603
  • Location: Mississippi
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4814 on: August 01, 2019, 05:37:35 AM »
The fed really screwed up my end-of-month NW spreadsheet

Right? I should have done it yesterday.

I am glad I only update my spreadsheet once every 6 months!

I'm starting to think I should only update it at the top.  That way the top will always be in, as it is and should be.

Good plan.  I'm down 20k!  Like almost a percent, top better not be in.

The last time I updated my numbers was April 11, 2017. I'm too afraid to see how much I've lost since the top was in.

2Birds1Stone

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5674
  • Age: 1
  • Location: Earth
  • K Thnx Bye
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4815 on: August 01, 2019, 06:28:28 AM »
New tops are coming, it's election time after all!

JAYSLOL

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1234
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4816 on: August 01, 2019, 12:50:19 PM »
Was looking like the Top wasn’t in... but then it was... it always was.  thorstach, you’re up, give us the good news!

DadJokes

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 948
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4817 on: August 01, 2019, 12:54:49 PM »
Was looking like the Top wasn’t in... but then it was... it always was.  thorstach, you’re up, give us the good news!

Top is such a flirt

BicycleB

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1736
  • Location: Live Music Capital of the World
  • Older than the internet, but not wiser... yet
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4818 on: August 01, 2019, 01:27:54 PM »
Like any good antagonist, the top knows how to set bait. It knows to flit, oscillate, pause - to make you think there is some semblance of hope. Then, crushingly, cometh The Fall.

You have been warned.

Clean Shaven

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 803
  • Location: Wild Wild West
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4819 on: August 01, 2019, 09:09:36 PM »
Like any good antagonist, the top knows how to set bait. It knows to flit, oscillate, pause - to make you think there is some semblance of hope. Then, crushingly, cometh The Fall.

You have been warned.
Don't lies eventually lead to the truth? And don't all my stories, true or false, tend toward the same conclusion? Don't they all have the same meaning? So what does it matter whether they are true or false if, in both cases, they are significant of what I have been and what I am? Sometimes it is easier to see clearly into the liar than into the man who tells the truth. Truth, like light, blinds. The top, on the contrary, is a beautiful twilight that enhances every object.

thorstach

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 71
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4820 on: August 01, 2019, 09:44:58 PM »
Top is in

JAYSLOL

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1234
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4821 on: August 01, 2019, 10:27:08 PM »
Top is in

Yes!  My prayers are answered!  And my predictions have come to pass!

Bateaux

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1504
  • Location: Port Vincent
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4822 on: August 02, 2019, 12:16:43 AM »
Dang.  Down over 30k!  For me it's a fun post to make on MMM.  For some that's a life changing amount of money.  This game is nuts.

soccerluvof4

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5488
  • Location: Artic Midwest
  • Retired at 50
    • My Journal
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4823 on: August 02, 2019, 02:28:56 AM »
Dang.  Down over 30k!  For me it's a fun post to make on MMM.  For some that's a life changing amount of money.  This game is nuts.


Right there with ya! Stings but again on China trading. How many times have we seen this before.

2Birds1Stone

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5674
  • Age: 1
  • Location: Earth
  • K Thnx Bye
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4824 on: August 02, 2019, 03:46:48 AM »
Y'all are funny.

We could use a healthy 15-20% correction.

frugledoc

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 708
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4825 on: August 02, 2019, 05:25:24 AM »
Y'all are funny.

We could use a healthy 15-20% correction.

> 20% so we can stop all the nonsense about longest bull run ever.  The correction in December stopped a whisker short of a technical bear unfortunately!

DadJokes

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 948
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4826 on: August 02, 2019, 06:53:43 AM »
Top is in. You guys should definitely sell everything.

solon

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1649
  • Age: 1819
  • Location: CO
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4827 on: August 02, 2019, 08:52:45 AM »
Top is in

Yes!  My prayers are answered!  And my predictions have come to pass!

Is anybody adding this to the chart of thorstach posts?

JAYSLOL

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1234
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4828 on: August 02, 2019, 08:55:15 AM »
Top is in

Yes!  My prayers are answered!  And my predictions have come to pass!

Is anybody adding this to the chart of thorstach posts?

It’s been a bear market of thorstach posts for so long, hopefully he posts a bunch and we get a long deserved bull market of posts

dandarc

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3540
  • Age: 37
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4829 on: August 02, 2019, 09:12:17 AM »
Down 2 days in a row and looking like a third. Apparently I need to wait until October to re-finance as owner-occupied. Wondering if I should take the higher interest rate and just have them run the thing as tenant-occupied to take advantage of this dip. But on second thought, that would be a fool's errand - TOP IS IN - prices will only be lower in 2 months.

fattest_foot

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 723
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4830 on: August 02, 2019, 09:42:20 AM »
Y'all are funny.

We could use a healthy 15-20% correction.

A 15-20% correction would take us back to December 2018 levels, and basically mean we've been flat for over 2 years.

I know everyone gets nervous that we haven't had a recession in a decade, but I don't see the market as overvalued when you look at the trend.

salt cured

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 124
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4831 on: August 02, 2019, 09:58:26 AM »

A 15-20% correction would take us back to December 2018 levels, and basically mean we've been flat for over 2 years.

I know everyone gets nervous that we haven't had a recession in a decade, but I don't see the market as overvalued when you look at the trend.

I used to be nervous until I started following this thread but now I know for certain that the top is in and can sleep soundly.

Maenad

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 532
  • Location: Minneapolis 'burbs
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4832 on: August 02, 2019, 10:45:15 AM »
Y'all are funny.

We could use a healthy 15-20% correction.

> 20% so we can stop all the nonsense about longest bull run ever.  The correction in December stopped a whisker short of a technical bear unfortunately!

I thought the S&P did just barely hit 20%. I think the nonsense has switched to "longest economic expansion ever", so they can milk that one until the GDP actually goes negative. Then if it only goes negative for 1 quarter, the narrative will change to "longest time without a recession". The goalposts can always be moved. Much like the top.

Tyson

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2420
  • Age: 47
  • Location: Denver, Colorado
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4833 on: August 02, 2019, 11:16:51 AM »
Y'all are funny.

We could use a healthy 15-20% correction.

> 20% so we can stop all the nonsense about longest bull run ever.  The correction in December stopped a whisker short of a technical bear unfortunately!

I thought the S&P did just barely hit 20%. I think the nonsense has switched to "longest economic expansion ever", so they can milk that one until the GDP actually goes negative. Then if it only goes negative for 1 quarter, the narrative will change to "longest time without a recession". The goalposts can always be moved. Much like the top.

There are many, many parallels between market pessimists and and End Of The World cults.  You've just found one of them :thumb:

Cabaka

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 33
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4834 on: August 02, 2019, 12:37:20 PM »
Dang.  Down over 30k!  For me it's a fun post to make on MMM.  For some that's a life changing amount of money.  This game is nuts.

this thread is going to be fun to watch if we are about to hit two 20% declines within a year. personally, being silly moving average investor; I calculate(I have money in brokerages all over) from oct 2018 to now; I've made over 12% using a moving average. everyone here is at a loss unless you started investing in January 2019.

I do not like schadenfreude on others, but as I am seen here as some sort of idiot market  timer for using moving averages which has bee around for decades; yes; i'll enjoy reading about some financial pain here.

Davnasty

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2061
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4835 on: August 02, 2019, 12:52:02 PM »
Dang.  Down over 30k!  For me it's a fun post to make on MMM.  For some that's a life changing amount of money.  This game is nuts.

this thread is going to be fun to watch if we are about to hit two 20% declines within a year. personally, being silly moving average investor; I calculate(I have money in brokerages all over) from oct 2018 to now; I've made over 12% using a moving average. everyone here is at a loss unless you started investing in January 2019.

I do not like schadenfreude on others, but as I am seen here as some sort of idiot market  timer for using moving averages which has bee around for decades; yes; i'll enjoy reading about some financial pain here.

Financial pain? Unless canned bacon prices take a hit (that'll be the day) I should be fine.

Radagast

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1585
  • Location: West of the Mountains, East of the Sea
  • One does not simply work into Mordor
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4836 on: August 02, 2019, 01:34:25 PM »
So many bad assumptions on the author's part...

A big one is assuming 6% return then removing inflation. S&P 500 has returned an average of around 7% .. after inflation over the last 90 years. That's around 9.8% before inflation.

Another has been covered - the taxes. They would pay 0% in taxes, on either dividends or capital gains, unless they have significant income from elsewhere in which case their withdrawals would drop.

Basically yet another "let's work as hard as we can to support the conclusion I've already made before running the numbers" type article.



that would be great if we all had 90 years until we had to take withdrawals, but even the most mustachian have been investing maybe 40 if we were starting at 20 and going FI at 60 and we have another serious correction coming off the FED rally since 2009.

i'm sorry but 9.8 percent return is a very financial instition number not realistic; but i'm going to let this lie as I know this will go no where here; I mainly come to watch the top is in thread anymore; its entertaining.


BTW, you all dollar cost averagers have now gained less than 1% since the market selloff last October, now 10 months ago; but yeah; the s+p averages 9.8% yearly.
Dang.  Down over 30k!  For me it's a fun post to make on MMM.  For some that's a life changing amount of money.  This game is nuts.

this thread is going to be fun to watch if we are about to hit two 20% declines within a year. personally, being silly moving average investor; I calculate(I have money in brokerages all over) from oct 2018 to now; I've made over 12% using a moving average. everyone here is at a loss unless you started investing in January 2019.

I do not like schadenfreude on others, but as I am seen here as some sort of idiot market  timer for using moving averages which has bee around for decades; yes; i'll enjoy reading about some financial pain here.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=2018&firstMonth=10&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&initialAmount=1000&annualOperation=1&annualAdjustment=1000&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=2&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&showYield=false&reinvestDividends=true&benchmark=VFINX&symbol1=VTSAX&allocation1_1=100&total1=100&total2=0&total3=0
Looks like somebody putting equal monthly amounts into an S&P500 fund since October 1, 2018 has returned 15.1% on their money over that period (end of day Wednesday July 31). Also you are underperforming DCA, even accounting for the selloff over the past 2 days. So you are pretty bad at estimating returns even with hindsight, but you may be good at estimating opinions of you.

frugledoc

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 708
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4837 on: August 02, 2019, 01:46:00 PM »
Dang.  Down over 30k!  For me it's a fun post to make on MMM.  For some that's a life changing amount of money.  This game is nuts.

this thread is going to be fun to watch if we are about to hit two 20% declines within a year. personally, being silly moving average investor; I calculate(I have money in brokerages all over) from oct 2018 to now; I've made over 12% using a moving average. everyone here is at a loss unless you started investing in January 2019.

I do not like schadenfreude on others, but as I am seen here as some sort of idiot market  timer for using moving averages which has bee around for decades; yes; i'll enjoy reading about some financial pain here.

Zzzzzz no pain here,  think long term not short term

ScreamingHeadGuy

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 136
  • Age: 40
  • Location: Down the street from the Frozen Tundra
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4838 on: August 02, 2019, 01:47:46 PM »
Top is in

Yes!  My prayers are answered!  And my predictions have come to pass!

Is anybody adding this to the chart of thorstach posts?

It’s been a bear market of thorstach posts for so long, hopefully he posts a bunch and we get a long deserved bull market of posts
But where is the jargon-heavy “technical analysis”?  What about a strange-shaped chart with superimposed arrows?  I am disappointed. 

Brother Esau

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 502
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4839 on: August 02, 2019, 01:58:10 PM »
Dang.  Down over 30k!  For me it's a fun post to make on MMM.  For some that's a life changing amount of money.  This game is nuts.

this thread is going to be fun to watch if we are about to hit two 20% declines within a year. personally, being silly moving average investor; I calculate(I have money in brokerages all over) from oct 2018 to now; I've made over 12% using a moving average. everyone here is at a loss unless you started investing in January 2019.

I do not like schadenfreude on others, but as I am seen here as some sort of idiot market  timer for using moving averages which has bee around for decades; yes; i'll enjoy reading about some financial pain here.

Zzzzzz no pain here,  think long term not short term

Same here. I don't recall 2000 and 2008 being "painful". Well, maybe except that time I broke my collar bone while mountain biking.

OurTown

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1181
  • Age: 50
  • Location: Tennessee
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4840 on: August 02, 2019, 02:08:28 PM »
Dang.  Down over 30k!  For me it's a fun post to make on MMM.  For some that's a life changing amount of money.  This game is nuts.

this thread is going to be fun to watch if we are about to hit two 20% declines within a year. personally, being silly moving average investor; I calculate(I have money in brokerages all over) from oct 2018 to now; I've made over 12% using a moving average. everyone here is at a loss unless you started investing in January 2019.

I do not like schadenfreude on others, but as I am seen here as some sort of idiot market  timer for using moving averages which has bee around for decades; yes; i'll enjoy reading about some financial pain here.

You even lift, bro?

Steeze

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 362
  • Age: 32
  • Location: NYC Area of Earth
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4841 on: August 02, 2019, 02:33:31 PM »
Dang.  Down over 30k!  For me it's a fun post to make on MMM.  For some that's a life changing amount of money.  This game is nuts.

this thread is going to be fun to watch if we are about to hit two 20% declines within a year. personally, being silly moving average investor; I calculate(I have money in brokerages all over) from oct 2018 to now; I've made over 12% using a moving average. everyone here is at a loss unless you started investing in January 2019.

I do not like schadenfreude on others, but as I am seen here as some sort of idiot market  timer for using moving averages which has bee around for decades; yes; i'll enjoy reading about some financial pain here.

Thanks to my Christmas bonus, January IRA max, and February 401k match I am up about 20% since October by investing everything as soon as I can. Total account values up over 100% since October 18 with contributions.

The bigger the drop the bigger the top. Tippity drippity drop top.

fattest_foot

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 723
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4842 on: August 02, 2019, 02:36:24 PM »
this thread is going to be fun to watch if we are about to hit two 20% declines within a year. personally, being silly moving average investor; I calculate(I have money in brokerages all over) from oct 2018 to now; I've made over 12% using a moving average. everyone here is at a loss unless you started investing in January 2019.

I do not like schadenfreude on others, but as I am seen here as some sort of idiot market  timer for using moving averages which has bee around for decades; yes; i'll enjoy reading about some financial pain here.

I don't understand this statement? Was it supposed to be qualified somehow?

Because I can assure you I started investing before January 2019 and our return is definitely positive.

BicycleB

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1736
  • Location: Live Music Capital of the World
  • Older than the internet, but not wiser... yet
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4843 on: August 02, 2019, 02:54:54 PM »
@fattest_foot wins the quick fingers award.

Resorting to different words, same idea: err...@Cabaka... I'm here. I didn't start investing in January 2019...more like  1990something. Returns have been pretty positive. Thousands invested have turned into tens of thousands.


dragoncar

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8804
  • Registered member
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4844 on: August 02, 2019, 05:46:49 PM »
this thread is going to be fun to watch if we are about to hit two 20% declines within a year. personally, being silly moving average investor; I calculate(I have money in brokerages all over) from oct 2018 to now; I've made over 12% using a moving average. everyone here is at a loss unless you started investing in January 2019.

I do not like schadenfreude on others, but as I am seen here as some sort of idiot market  timer for using moving averages which has bee around for decades; yes; i'll enjoy reading about some financial pain here.

I don't understand this statement? Was it supposed to be qualified somehow?

Because I can assure you I started investing before January 2019 and our return is definitely positive.

My NW is definitely up since Oct 2018 and that includes me withdrawing living expenses

spartanswami

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 18
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4845 on: August 02, 2019, 05:55:21 PM »

JAYSLOL

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1234
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4846 on: August 02, 2019, 06:32:30 PM »

Buffalo Chip

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 659
  • Location: Tidewater Virginia
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4847 on: August 05, 2019, 06:16:27 AM »
Top is in

Yessssssss!!!!!!

I am so ready for a sale!

2Birds1Stone

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5674
  • Age: 1
  • Location: Earth
  • K Thnx Bye
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4848 on: August 05, 2019, 06:57:47 AM »
Dow <25k before end of the month.......let's do it!

2Birds1Stone

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5674
  • Age: 1
  • Location: Earth
  • K Thnx Bye
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4849 on: August 05, 2019, 06:58:41 AM »
Dow <25k before end of the month.......let's do it!

Week!