Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 3134597 times)

Loren Ver

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4800 on: July 31, 2019, 05:17:37 PM »
DOOOOOOM

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4801 on: July 31, 2019, 06:40:23 PM »
DOOOOOMS'day

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4802 on: July 31, 2019, 07:05:59 PM »
The fed really screwed up my end-of-month NW spreadsheet

Steeze

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4803 on: July 31, 2019, 08:06:22 PM »
The fed really screwed up my end-of-month NW spreadsheet

Right? I should have done it yesterday.

Threshkin

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4804 on: July 31, 2019, 09:06:20 PM »
The fed really screwed up my end-of-month NW spreadsheet

Right? I should have done it yesterday.

I am glad I only update my spreadsheet once every 6 months!

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4805 on: August 01, 2019, 01:10:21 AM »
The fed really screwed up my end-of-month NW spreadsheet

Right? I should have done it yesterday.

I am glad I only update my spreadsheet once every 6 months!

I'm starting to think I should only update it at the top.  That way the top will always be in, as it is and should be.

Bateaux

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4806 on: August 01, 2019, 05:32:18 AM »
The fed really screwed up my end-of-month NW spreadsheet

Right? I should have done it yesterday.

I am glad I only update my spreadsheet once every 6 months!

I'm starting to think I should only update it at the top.  That way the top will always be in, as it is and should be.

Good plan.  I'm down 20k!  Like almost a percent, top better not be in.

RWD

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4807 on: August 01, 2019, 05:37:35 AM »
The fed really screwed up my end-of-month NW spreadsheet

Right? I should have done it yesterday.

I am glad I only update my spreadsheet once every 6 months!

I'm starting to think I should only update it at the top.  That way the top will always be in, as it is and should be.

Good plan.  I'm down 20k!  Like almost a percent, top better not be in.

The last time I updated my numbers was April 11, 2017. I'm too afraid to see how much I've lost since the top was in.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4808 on: August 01, 2019, 06:28:28 AM »
New tops are coming, it's election time after all!

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4809 on: August 01, 2019, 12:50:19 PM »
Was looking like the Top wasn’t in... but then it was... it always was.  thorstach, you’re up, give us the good news!

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4810 on: August 01, 2019, 12:54:49 PM »
Was looking like the Top wasn’t in... but then it was... it always was.  thorstach, you’re up, give us the good news!

Top is such a flirt

BicycleB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4811 on: August 01, 2019, 01:27:54 PM »
Like any good antagonist, the top knows how to set bait. It knows to flit, oscillate, pause - to make you think there is some semblance of hope. Then, crushingly, cometh The Fall.

You have been warned.

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4812 on: August 01, 2019, 09:09:36 PM »
Like any good antagonist, the top knows how to set bait. It knows to flit, oscillate, pause - to make you think there is some semblance of hope. Then, crushingly, cometh The Fall.

You have been warned.
Don't lies eventually lead to the truth? And don't all my stories, true or false, tend toward the same conclusion? Don't they all have the same meaning? So what does it matter whether they are true or false if, in both cases, they are significant of what I have been and what I am? Sometimes it is easier to see clearly into the liar than into the man who tells the truth. Truth, like light, blinds. The top, on the contrary, is a beautiful twilight that enhances every object.

thorstach

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4813 on: August 01, 2019, 09:44:58 PM »
Top is in

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4814 on: August 01, 2019, 10:27:08 PM »
Top is in

Yes!  My prayers are answered!  And my predictions have come to pass!

Bateaux

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4815 on: August 02, 2019, 12:16:43 AM »
Dang.  Down over 30k!  For me it's a fun post to make on MMM.  For some that's a life changing amount of money.  This game is nuts.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4816 on: August 02, 2019, 02:28:56 AM »
Dang.  Down over 30k!  For me it's a fun post to make on MMM.  For some that's a life changing amount of money.  This game is nuts.


Right there with ya! Stings but again on China trading. How many times have we seen this before.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4817 on: August 02, 2019, 03:46:48 AM »
Y'all are funny.

We could use a healthy 15-20% correction.

frugledoc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4818 on: August 02, 2019, 05:25:24 AM »
Y'all are funny.

We could use a healthy 15-20% correction.

> 20% so we can stop all the nonsense about longest bull run ever.  The correction in December stopped a whisker short of a technical bear unfortunately!

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4819 on: August 02, 2019, 06:53:43 AM »
Top is in. You guys should definitely sell everything.

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4820 on: August 02, 2019, 08:52:45 AM »
Top is in

Yes!  My prayers are answered!  And my predictions have come to pass!

Is anybody adding this to the chart of thorstach posts?

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4821 on: August 02, 2019, 08:55:15 AM »
Top is in

Yes!  My prayers are answered!  And my predictions have come to pass!

Is anybody adding this to the chart of thorstach posts?

It’s been a bear market of thorstach posts for so long, hopefully he posts a bunch and we get a long deserved bull market of posts

dandarc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4822 on: August 02, 2019, 09:12:17 AM »
Down 2 days in a row and looking like a third. Apparently I need to wait until October to re-finance as owner-occupied. Wondering if I should take the higher interest rate and just have them run the thing as tenant-occupied to take advantage of this dip. But on second thought, that would be a fool's errand - TOP IS IN - prices will only be lower in 2 months.

fattest_foot

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4823 on: August 02, 2019, 09:42:20 AM »
Y'all are funny.

We could use a healthy 15-20% correction.

A 15-20% correction would take us back to December 2018 levels, and basically mean we've been flat for over 2 years.

I know everyone gets nervous that we haven't had a recession in a decade, but I don't see the market as overvalued when you look at the trend.

salt cured

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4824 on: August 02, 2019, 09:58:26 AM »

A 15-20% correction would take us back to December 2018 levels, and basically mean we've been flat for over 2 years.

I know everyone gets nervous that we haven't had a recession in a decade, but I don't see the market as overvalued when you look at the trend.

I used to be nervous until I started following this thread but now I know for certain that the top is in and can sleep soundly.

Maenad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4825 on: August 02, 2019, 10:45:15 AM »
Y'all are funny.

We could use a healthy 15-20% correction.

> 20% so we can stop all the nonsense about longest bull run ever.  The correction in December stopped a whisker short of a technical bear unfortunately!

I thought the S&P did just barely hit 20%. I think the nonsense has switched to "longest economic expansion ever", so they can milk that one until the GDP actually goes negative. Then if it only goes negative for 1 quarter, the narrative will change to "longest time without a recession". The goalposts can always be moved. Much like the top.

Tyson

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4826 on: August 02, 2019, 11:16:51 AM »
Y'all are funny.

We could use a healthy 15-20% correction.

> 20% so we can stop all the nonsense about longest bull run ever.  The correction in December stopped a whisker short of a technical bear unfortunately!

I thought the S&P did just barely hit 20%. I think the nonsense has switched to "longest economic expansion ever", so they can milk that one until the GDP actually goes negative. Then if it only goes negative for 1 quarter, the narrative will change to "longest time without a recession". The goalposts can always be moved. Much like the top.

There are many, many parallels between market pessimists and and End Of The World cults.  You've just found one of them :thumb:

Cabaka

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4827 on: August 02, 2019, 12:37:20 PM »
Dang.  Down over 30k!  For me it's a fun post to make on MMM.  For some that's a life changing amount of money.  This game is nuts.

this thread is going to be fun to watch if we are about to hit two 20% declines within a year. personally, being silly moving average investor; I calculate(I have money in brokerages all over) from oct 2018 to now; I've made over 12% using a moving average. everyone here is at a loss unless you started investing in January 2019.

I do not like schadenfreude on others, but as I am seen here as some sort of idiot market  timer for using moving averages which has bee around for decades; yes; i'll enjoy reading about some financial pain here.

Davnasty

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4828 on: August 02, 2019, 12:52:02 PM »
Dang.  Down over 30k!  For me it's a fun post to make on MMM.  For some that's a life changing amount of money.  This game is nuts.

this thread is going to be fun to watch if we are about to hit two 20% declines within a year. personally, being silly moving average investor; I calculate(I have money in brokerages all over) from oct 2018 to now; I've made over 12% using a moving average. everyone here is at a loss unless you started investing in January 2019.

I do not like schadenfreude on others, but as I am seen here as some sort of idiot market  timer for using moving averages which has bee around for decades; yes; i'll enjoy reading about some financial pain here.

Financial pain? Unless canned bacon prices take a hit (that'll be the day) I should be fine.

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4829 on: August 02, 2019, 01:34:25 PM »
So many bad assumptions on the author's part...

A big one is assuming 6% return then removing inflation. S&P 500 has returned an average of around 7% .. after inflation over the last 90 years. That's around 9.8% before inflation.

Another has been covered - the taxes. They would pay 0% in taxes, on either dividends or capital gains, unless they have significant income from elsewhere in which case their withdrawals would drop.

Basically yet another "let's work as hard as we can to support the conclusion I've already made before running the numbers" type article.



that would be great if we all had 90 years until we had to take withdrawals, but even the most mustachian have been investing maybe 40 if we were starting at 20 and going FI at 60 and we have another serious correction coming off the FED rally since 2009.

i'm sorry but 9.8 percent return is a very financial instition number not realistic; but i'm going to let this lie as I know this will go no where here; I mainly come to watch the top is in thread anymore; its entertaining.


BTW, you all dollar cost averagers have now gained less than 1% since the market selloff last October, now 10 months ago; but yeah; the s+p averages 9.8% yearly.
Dang.  Down over 30k!  For me it's a fun post to make on MMM.  For some that's a life changing amount of money.  This game is nuts.

this thread is going to be fun to watch if we are about to hit two 20% declines within a year. personally, being silly moving average investor; I calculate(I have money in brokerages all over) from oct 2018 to now; I've made over 12% using a moving average. everyone here is at a loss unless you started investing in January 2019.

I do not like schadenfreude on others, but as I am seen here as some sort of idiot market  timer for using moving averages which has bee around for decades; yes; i'll enjoy reading about some financial pain here.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=2018&firstMonth=10&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&initialAmount=1000&annualOperation=1&annualAdjustment=1000&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=2&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&showYield=false&reinvestDividends=true&benchmark=VFINX&symbol1=VTSAX&allocation1_1=100&total1=100&total2=0&total3=0
Looks like somebody putting equal monthly amounts into an S&P500 fund since October 1, 2018 has returned 15.1% on their money over that period (end of day Wednesday July 31). Also you are underperforming DCA, even accounting for the selloff over the past 2 days. So you are pretty bad at estimating returns even with hindsight, but you may be good at estimating opinions of you.

frugledoc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4830 on: August 02, 2019, 01:46:00 PM »
Dang.  Down over 30k!  For me it's a fun post to make on MMM.  For some that's a life changing amount of money.  This game is nuts.

this thread is going to be fun to watch if we are about to hit two 20% declines within a year. personally, being silly moving average investor; I calculate(I have money in brokerages all over) from oct 2018 to now; I've made over 12% using a moving average. everyone here is at a loss unless you started investing in January 2019.

I do not like schadenfreude on others, but as I am seen here as some sort of idiot market  timer for using moving averages which has bee around for decades; yes; i'll enjoy reading about some financial pain here.

Zzzzzz no pain here,  think long term not short term

ScreamingHeadGuy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4831 on: August 02, 2019, 01:47:46 PM »
Top is in

Yes!  My prayers are answered!  And my predictions have come to pass!

Is anybody adding this to the chart of thorstach posts?

It’s been a bear market of thorstach posts for so long, hopefully he posts a bunch and we get a long deserved bull market of posts
But where is the jargon-heavy “technical analysis”?  What about a strange-shaped chart with superimposed arrows?  I am disappointed. 

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4832 on: August 02, 2019, 01:58:10 PM »
Dang.  Down over 30k!  For me it's a fun post to make on MMM.  For some that's a life changing amount of money.  This game is nuts.

this thread is going to be fun to watch if we are about to hit two 20% declines within a year. personally, being silly moving average investor; I calculate(I have money in brokerages all over) from oct 2018 to now; I've made over 12% using a moving average. everyone here is at a loss unless you started investing in January 2019.

I do not like schadenfreude on others, but as I am seen here as some sort of idiot market  timer for using moving averages which has bee around for decades; yes; i'll enjoy reading about some financial pain here.

Zzzzzz no pain here,  think long term not short term

Same here. I don't recall 2000 and 2008 being "painful". Well, maybe except that time I broke my collar bone while mountain biking.

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4833 on: August 02, 2019, 02:08:28 PM »
Dang.  Down over 30k!  For me it's a fun post to make on MMM.  For some that's a life changing amount of money.  This game is nuts.

this thread is going to be fun to watch if we are about to hit two 20% declines within a year. personally, being silly moving average investor; I calculate(I have money in brokerages all over) from oct 2018 to now; I've made over 12% using a moving average. everyone here is at a loss unless you started investing in January 2019.

I do not like schadenfreude on others, but as I am seen here as some sort of idiot market  timer for using moving averages which has bee around for decades; yes; i'll enjoy reading about some financial pain here.

You even lift, bro?

Steeze

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4834 on: August 02, 2019, 02:33:31 PM »
Dang.  Down over 30k!  For me it's a fun post to make on MMM.  For some that's a life changing amount of money.  This game is nuts.

this thread is going to be fun to watch if we are about to hit two 20% declines within a year. personally, being silly moving average investor; I calculate(I have money in brokerages all over) from oct 2018 to now; I've made over 12% using a moving average. everyone here is at a loss unless you started investing in January 2019.

I do not like schadenfreude on others, but as I am seen here as some sort of idiot market  timer for using moving averages which has bee around for decades; yes; i'll enjoy reading about some financial pain here.

Thanks to my Christmas bonus, January IRA max, and February 401k match I am up about 20% since October by investing everything as soon as I can. Total account values up over 100% since October 18 with contributions.

The bigger the drop the bigger the top. Tippity drippity drop top.

fattest_foot

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4835 on: August 02, 2019, 02:36:24 PM »
this thread is going to be fun to watch if we are about to hit two 20% declines within a year. personally, being silly moving average investor; I calculate(I have money in brokerages all over) from oct 2018 to now; I've made over 12% using a moving average. everyone here is at a loss unless you started investing in January 2019.

I do not like schadenfreude on others, but as I am seen here as some sort of idiot market  timer for using moving averages which has bee around for decades; yes; i'll enjoy reading about some financial pain here.

I don't understand this statement? Was it supposed to be qualified somehow?

Because I can assure you I started investing before January 2019 and our return is definitely positive.

BicycleB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4836 on: August 02, 2019, 02:54:54 PM »
@fattest_foot wins the quick fingers award.

Resorting to different words, same idea: err...@Cabaka... I'm here. I didn't start investing in January 2019...more like  1990something. Returns have been pretty positive. Thousands invested have turned into tens of thousands.


dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4837 on: August 02, 2019, 05:46:49 PM »
this thread is going to be fun to watch if we are about to hit two 20% declines within a year. personally, being silly moving average investor; I calculate(I have money in brokerages all over) from oct 2018 to now; I've made over 12% using a moving average. everyone here is at a loss unless you started investing in January 2019.

I do not like schadenfreude on others, but as I am seen here as some sort of idiot market  timer for using moving averages which has bee around for decades; yes; i'll enjoy reading about some financial pain here.

I don't understand this statement? Was it supposed to be qualified somehow?

Because I can assure you I started investing before January 2019 and our return is definitely positive.

My NW is definitely up since Oct 2018 and that includes me withdrawing living expenses

spartanswami

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4838 on: August 02, 2019, 05:55:21 PM »

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4839 on: August 02, 2019, 06:32:30 PM »

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4840 on: August 05, 2019, 06:16:27 AM »
Top is in

Yessssssss!!!!!!

I am so ready for a sale!

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4841 on: August 05, 2019, 06:57:47 AM »
Dow <25k before end of the month.......let's do it!

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4842 on: August 05, 2019, 06:58:41 AM »
Dow <25k before end of the month.......let's do it!

Week!

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4843 on: August 05, 2019, 07:09:26 AM »
Dow <25k before end of the month.......let's do it!

<25k wouldn't even be the lowest point of 2019. Bring on <20k!

freedomfightergal

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4844 on: August 05, 2019, 07:51:43 AM »
Top was in last week!

Lets see how low this goes....sold half my VTI last week at $153.03, it's down to $146.42 now..

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4845 on: August 05, 2019, 08:11:40 AM »
I went all cash last week in my Robinhood race from $2500 to $250,000 contest.   I am at 271% gain and wanted to see what happened this week in the market.

Now I am getting ready to feast!

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4846 on: August 05, 2019, 08:55:26 AM »
Top was in last week!

Lets see how low this goes....sold half my VTI last week at $153.03, it's down to $146.42 now..

It's going to be at least a year till we see new tops.

Rdy2Fire

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4847 on: August 05, 2019, 09:17:15 AM »
Top was in last week!

Lets see how low this goes....sold half my VTI last week at $153.03, it's down to $146.42 now..

It's going to be at least a year till we see new tops.

Maybe longer.. last few days have been crushing and today is going to be brutal

BicycleB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4848 on: August 05, 2019, 09:23:27 AM »
As an icon of market timing, this week I sold...nothing.

I bought...groceries.

Grocery top is in.

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4849 on: August 05, 2019, 09:40:22 AM »
I sold everything







that we weren't using anymore in a yard sale this summer