Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 1690455 times)

merula

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7550 on: February 09, 2021, 11:54:39 AM »
The Romans were really good at philosophy, the arts, and military conquest. But their math sucks.

If my country was one of the last metric hold outs in the world, I wouldn't cast stones in this direction.

:P

C'mon, be fair.    Most Americans can't do math in Imperial measurements either.   We don't convert because then no one else can figure out we're inumerate, which is illiterate only with numbers.

Americans use metric for a ton of super-American stuff! Bullets. Soda bottles. Nutrition labels*. Hard liquor. Oreo serving size. Illegal drugs. Bombs. Protein power. Liquid limits for airport security theater. Electric metering for all our stupid devices.

*The calorie is an SI-based unit, though in fairness we print it as "cal" instead of the more accurate Kcal.

Travis

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7551 on: February 09, 2021, 06:42:20 PM »
The Romans were really good at philosophy, the arts, and military conquest. But their math sucks.

If my country was one of the last metric hold outs in the world, I wouldn't cast stones in this direction.

:P

C'mon, be fair.    Most Americans can't do math in Imperial measurements either.   We don't convert because then no one else can figure out we're inumerate, which is illiterate only with numbers.

Americans use metric for a ton of super-American stuff! Bullets. Soda bottles. Nutrition labels*. Hard liquor. Oreo serving size. Illegal drugs. Bombs. Protein power. Liquid limits for airport security theater. Electric metering for all our stupid devices.

*The calorie is an SI-based unit, though in fairness we print it as "cal" instead of the more accurate Kcal.

I have never received an airstrike that was measured in kilograms. 500 pounders all day thank you!

About those nutrition labels - the box of food itself is in imperial with metric in smaller print so serving size is either ignored or feels like a polite suggestion because I can't measure out 2.5 servings.

markbike528CBX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7552 on: February 09, 2021, 07:17:43 PM »
The Romans were really good at philosophy, the arts, and military conquest. But their math sucks.

If my country was one of the last metric hold outs in the world, I wouldn't cast stones in this direction.

:P

C'mon, be fair.    Most Americans can't do math in Imperial measurements either.   We don't convert because then no one else can figure out we're inumerate, which is illiterate only with numbers.

Americans use metric for a ton of super-American stuff! Bullets. Soda bottles. Nutrition labels*. Hard liquor. Oreo serving size. Illegal drugs. Bombs. Protein power. Liquid limits for airport security theater. Electric metering for all our stupid devices.

*The calorie is an SI-based unit, though in fairness we print it as "cal" instead of the more accurate Kcal.

'Mericans use 7.62x39mm and 7.62x51mm as very separate things.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7.62%C3%9739mm ie COMMIE and worse...     vs   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7.62%C3%9751mm_NATO   .... who hooooh
7.62x51mm is a smaller packaging of the 30-06 beloved by 'Mericans.

I recently overheard a bar discussion about the unavailability of 9mm and 5.56mm ammo. so even 'Mericans get some of the metric system, even if not in a otherwise socially acceptable way.
I noted in the bar discussion that I heard _no_ mention of imperial/US units.
 
For those interested in such discussions I recommend :   https://www.youtube.com/c/ForgottenWeapons/videos

I'm amused about the number of non-US persons checking out the gun porn, complete with Gun Jesus. 
No I'm not kidding.   Just to be clear, he IS kidding and slightly shy about it , just like Brian.
https://www.hkpro.com/threads/hk-gun-jesus-poster.491582/         although if you are a French gun, you do get a pass to Heaven :-), as he has written a book on the subject.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7553 on: February 10, 2021, 12:31:27 PM »
I think that picture is based on Armaments 3:12-14 "And he spake unto them saying, lo, whithersoever thou goest, take with thee thine fully automated firearm.  For the path unto heaven is plagued by bad hombres.  Woe unto the unarmed for he who hath not adequate firepower shall not be able to force entry thereunto."

SwordGuy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7554 on: February 10, 2021, 12:58:34 PM »
I think that picture is based on Armaments 3:12-14 "And he spake unto them saying, lo, whithersoever thou goest, take with thee thine fully automated firearm.  For the path unto heaven is plagued by bad hombres.  Woe unto the unarmed for he who hath not adequate firepower shall not be able to force entry thereunto."

A more modern language rendition than the Colonel Colt edition quoted above.


dandarc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7555 on: February 10, 2021, 07:33:46 PM »
Is everyone day trading now? Top might really be in . . .

Steeze

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7556 on: February 10, 2021, 07:36:40 PM »
Is everyone day trading now? Top might really be in . . .

If your not making 5000% a year buying out of the money calls your going to be left behind.

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7557 on: February 10, 2021, 07:54:40 PM »
Is everyone day trading now? Top might really be in . . .

If your not making 5000% a year buying out of the money calls your going to be left behind.

I'm fearful of missing out . . . shut up and take my money!

dandarc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7558 on: February 10, 2021, 07:55:02 PM »
Friend of mine thinks he's going to turn $400 into $25K in 6 months - 5000% is for chumps.

markbike528CBX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7559 on: February 11, 2021, 09:06:28 AM »
Friend of mine thinks he's going to turn $400 into $25K in 6 months - 5000% is for chumps.
Popcorn in hand, waiting for winner brag, but likely all we'll hear is crickets.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7560 on: February 12, 2021, 08:41:46 AM »
VTSAX has eclipsed $100

SwordGuy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7561 on: February 12, 2021, 08:54:37 AM »
VTSAX has eclipsed $100

Wow, it was in the mid thirties back in 2012 when we started using it.

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7562 on: February 12, 2021, 08:57:19 AM »
The market is a brontosaurus today.

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7563 on: February 12, 2021, 09:14:18 AM »


The Brontosaurus top is in!

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7564 on: February 12, 2021, 09:24:54 AM »
Back when the Cretaceous top was in (aka, Chicxulub top) :


For those into precious metals, iridium really spiked there.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2021, 09:26:58 AM by Glenstache »

Turkey Leg

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7565 on: February 13, 2021, 12:36:02 PM »
I knew we were in for a huge, multi-year run-up when a Fox-News-watching Republican I know switched her 401k to all cash last October, because "the stock market is going to crash if Biden gets elected."

That's what she said aloud, but I imagine the explanation was simpler: She had been talking to @thorstach

BicycleB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7566 on: February 13, 2021, 11:04:53 PM »
^Reality is so confusing compared to our simple theories.

Lucky we have thorstach to guide us.

mies

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7567 on: February 14, 2021, 05:02:34 AM »
I knew we were in for a huge, multi-year run-up when a Fox-News-watching Republican I know switched her 401k to all cash last October, because "the stock market is going to crash if Biden gets elected."

That's what she said aloud, but I imagine the explanation was simpler: She had been talking to @thorstach

Conflating political preferences with stock market performance TOP IS IN!

v8rx7guy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7568 on: February 14, 2021, 08:37:50 AM »
I knew we were in for a huge, multi-year run-up when a Fox-News-watching Republican I know switched her 401k to all cash last October, because "the stock market is going to crash if Biden gets elected."

That's what she said aloud, but I imagine the explanation was simpler: She had been talking to @thorstach

Conflating political preferences with stock market performance TOP IS IN!

Goes both ways too:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/welp-i'm-going-to-take-a-stab-at-timing-the-market/

ender

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7569 on: February 14, 2021, 09:08:16 AM »
Market timing?

Top is always in, so why market time - you're always buying at the top!

mies

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7570 on: February 14, 2021, 10:42:58 AM »
I knew we were in for a huge, multi-year run-up when a Fox-News-watching Republican I know switched her 401k to all cash last October, because "the stock market is going to crash if Biden gets elected."

That's what she said aloud, but I imagine the explanation was simpler: She had been talking to @thorstach

Conflating political preferences with stock market performance TOP IS IN!

Goes both ways too:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/welp-i'm-going-to-take-a-stab-at-timing-the-market/

I'm aware of that thread. jroldtimer shot himself in the foot too. I sympathize with his sentiment, but he made a bad call. The president doesn't have as much of an effect on the economy or stock market as people like to think.

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7571 on: February 14, 2021, 02:12:33 PM »
I knew we were in for a huge, multi-year run-up when a Fox-News-watching Republican I know switched her 401k to all cash last October, because "the stock market is going to crash if Biden gets elected."

That's what she said aloud, but I imagine the explanation was simpler: She had been talking to @thorstach

Conflating political preferences with stock market performance TOP IS IN!

Goes both ways too:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/welp-i'm-going-to-take-a-stab-at-timing-the-market/

I'm aware of that thread. jroldtimer shot himself in the foot too. I sympathize with his sentiment, but he made a bad call. The president doesn't have as much of an effect on the economy or stock market as people like to think.

According to this site it would have been a good idea to stay out of the market during Nixon and the younger Bushís terms. With every other president since WWII you would have had positive returns.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2614/sp500-performance-by-president-from-election-date

Interestingly enough, the returns after 4 years for the most recent 4 presidents excluding George W range from 75.5% for Clinton down to 57.6% for George HW, with Obama at 58% and Trump at 64.7%. To me, thatís a pretty close grouping. Iíd think itís fair to say that the political affiliation of the President hasnít had any correlation to stock returns during their first four years in office for the last 30 years. But, if you look back 50 years, we have enough data to say that the odds of negative returns are infinitely higher during a republican administration than a democratic one.

Somebody could actually do the math on that, but that sounds way too serious for this thread.


dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7572 on: February 14, 2021, 03:42:16 PM »
Those numbers are only for the first term right?  So we can expect something like 12% cagr returns over the next four years now that itís Bidenís first term?

And as a corollary expect his second term to do poorly?  Because Iím pretty sure average market returns are lower than 12%

Alternatepriorities

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7573 on: February 14, 2021, 04:39:12 PM »
Those numbers are only for the first term right?  So we can expect something like 12% cagr returns over the next four years now that itís Bidenís first term?

And as a corollary expect his second term to do poorly?  Because Iím pretty sure average market returns are lower than 12%

According to this calculator:
https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

The average return of the S&P for my 40 years on this planet has been 11.47% before inflation... so yeah maybe weíll get 11 percent for the second term if there is one...

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7574 on: February 14, 2021, 06:00:05 PM »
Those numbers are only for the first term right?  So we can expect something like 12% cagr returns over the next four years now that itís Bidenís first term?

And as a corollary expect his second term to do poorly?  Because Iím pretty sure average market returns are lower than 12%

Well, I see Reagan at 94.8% return over eight years, which is 8.7% per year if my math is correct, Clinton at 204.8%, which is 14.9% per year, and Obama at 145.3%, or 11.9% per year. So, weíd better hope for a two-term Democratic president if we want sustained double-digit increases. Itís those republicans who have dragged down average returns over the last 50 years, according to the data.

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7575 on: February 14, 2021, 06:29:54 PM »
Ok, now I got curious. I didnít check my math, but hereís the numbers I see. Somebody should check this to see if Iím wrong.




BicycleB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7576 on: February 14, 2021, 06:47:17 PM »
Ok, now I got curious. I didnít check my math, but hereís the numbers I see. Somebody should check this to see if Iím wrong.

Looks close enough (just by eye), but seems like maybe it's not inflation adjusted?

70s and early 80s had a big difference between real and nominal returns fwiw.

BicycleB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7577 on: February 14, 2021, 06:51:27 PM »
Those numbers are only for the first term right?  So we can expect something like 12% cagr returns over the next four years now that itís Bidenís first term?

And as a corollary expect his second term to do poorly?  Because Iím pretty sure average market returns are lower than 12%

According to this calculator:
https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

The average return of the S&P for my 40 years on this planet has been 11.47% before inflation... so yeah maybe weíll get 11 percent for the second term if there is one...

Or maybe your time on the planet included the biggest bull market ever and S&P average returns will decline to historical averages. :)

Negative returns for the next 40 years! Top is IN!!!

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7578 on: February 14, 2021, 07:00:11 PM »
Ok, now I got curious. I didnít check my math, but hereís the numbers I see. Somebody should check this to see if Iím wrong.

Looks close enough (just by eye), but seems like maybe it's not inflation adjusted?

70s and early 80s had a big difference between real and nominal returns fwiw.

That is a good point. A serious look would use inflation-adjusted numbers.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7579 on: February 14, 2021, 08:01:11 PM »
Are we going to pretend control of Congress doesn't matter as well?

Travis

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7580 on: February 14, 2021, 08:09:13 PM »
Are we going to pretend control of Congress doesn't matter as well?

Most people don't think it does. Congressman Bob doesn't run for reelection on "I saved the economy!" because there's 500 other people in the building who can share in the credit. On the other hand, presidents do it all the time and have conditioned people to think they're the linchpin to the whole thing.

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7581 on: February 14, 2021, 09:09:16 PM »
Are we going to pretend control of Congress doesn't matter as well?

Most people don't think it does. Congressman Bob doesn't run for reelection on "I saved the economy!" because there's 500 other people in the building who can share in the credit. On the other hand, presidents do it all the time and have conditioned people to think they're the linchpin to the whole thing.

Iíd be interested in seeing inflation-adjusted returns based on which party controls congress. You should go find that and post it.

maizefolk

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7582 on: February 14, 2021, 10:38:53 PM »
According to this calculator:
https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

The average return of the S&P for my 40 years on this planet has been 11.47% before inflation... so yeah maybe weíll get 11 percent for the second term if there is one...

Or maybe your time on the planet included the biggest bull market ever and S&P average returns will decline to historical averages. :)

Negative returns for the next 40 years! Top is IN!!!
[/quote]

This bull market has gone on long enough that all the numbers I'd gotten used to quoting about the long term CGAR of the stock market (6.8% after inflation, 9% before inflation) going all the way back to 1871 (150 years!) are no longer correct. Those two values are up to 7.1% and 9.3% respectively.

erutio

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7583 on: February 15, 2021, 12:36:28 AM »

This bull market has gone on long enough that all the numbers I'd gotten used to quoting about the long term CGAR of the stock market (6.8% after inflation, 9% before inflation) going all the way back to 1871 (150 years!) are no longer correct. Those two values are up to 7.1% and 9.3% respectively.

That can only mean one thing.

19th Century top is in.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7584 on: February 15, 2021, 02:41:23 AM »
Those numbers are only for the first term right?  So we can expect something like 12% cagr returns over the next four years now that itís Bidenís first term?

And as a corollary expect his second term to do poorly?  Because Iím pretty sure average market returns are lower than 12%

According to this calculator:
https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

The average return of the S&P for my 40 years on this planet has been 11.47% before inflation... so yeah maybe weíll get 11 percent for the second term if there is one...

That's with dividends reinvested.  So for accurate comparison we need to know if the original returns were "total returns" (I was assuming no)

edit: and it's looking more like no based on my casual checking, although I can't get the numbers to match up either way.  Are we doing Jan-Jan or Jan-Dec?
« Last Edit: February 15, 2021, 02:45:00 AM by dragoncar »

UnleashHell

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7585 on: February 15, 2021, 03:23:44 AM »
best returns by president??
increasing predictions going forward??

What utter nonsense people. give your heads a wobble.

THE TOP IS IN.

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7586 on: February 15, 2021, 06:53:46 AM »
best returns by president??
increasing predictions going forward??

What utter nonsense people. give your heads a wobble.

THE TOP IS IN.


Wobbling head top is in!

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7587 on: February 15, 2021, 07:30:07 AM »
Those numbers are only for the first term right?  So we can expect something like 12% cagr returns over the next four years now that itís Bidenís first term?

And as a corollary expect his second term to do poorly?  Because Iím pretty sure average market returns are lower than 12%

According to this calculator:
https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

The average return of the S&P for my 40 years on this planet has been 11.47% before inflation... so yeah maybe weíll get 11 percent for the second term if there is one...

That's with dividends reinvested.  So for accurate comparison we need to know if the original returns were "total returns" (I was assuming no)

edit: and it's looking more like no based on my casual checking, although I can't get the numbers to match up either way.  Are we doing Jan-Jan or Jan-Dec?

This wasnít supposed to be a serious discussion, but here we are.

That chart I pulled from showed returns from the election date (weird, right?). Looking at the dqydj site, it appears the returns it showed are total returns (not inflation adjusted), but without reinvesting dividends.

So, that dqydj site would probably be the best source if someone wanted to show total inflation-adjusted returns by term and do it from inauguration to inauguration. Now youíve also got me interested in looking at gdp and unemployment by administration.

I feel like Iíve got enough information to decide that anyone who claims a democratic administration will be bad for stick market returns is spouting nonsense that is completely unsupported by reality.

UnleashHell

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7588 on: February 15, 2021, 07:40:47 AM »
.

I feel like Iíve got enough information to decide that anyone who claims a democratic administration will be bad for stick market returns is spouting nonsense that is completely unsupported by reality.

Stick market top is in!

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7589 on: February 15, 2021, 07:49:18 AM »
stick win everytime

mies

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7590 on: February 15, 2021, 07:59:39 AM »

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7591 on: February 15, 2021, 08:15:50 AM »
.

I feel like Iíve got enough information to decide that anyone who claims a democratic administration will be bad for stick market returns is spouting nonsense that is completely unsupported by reality.

Stick market top is in!

Ha! Now should we talk about bind allocations? Sounds kinky.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7592 on: February 15, 2021, 09:03:36 PM »
best returns by president??
increasing predictions going forward??

What utter nonsense people. give your heads a wobble.

THE TOP IS IN.


Wobbling head top is in!

What is Top?
Baby donít short me
donít short me
No more

Travis

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7593 on: February 18, 2021, 05:54:23 PM »
Did anyone see that GME is down to LXVI? That's a long ways down from CCCXVI. Caveat emptor! In summo est!

GME, stock picking, and crypto no longer show up on the top 5 reddit communities. Pop culture giving a shit about GameStop Top is in!

Painters Brush

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7594 on: February 23, 2021, 10:40:19 AM »
Question to anyone who is or ever was convinced the Top Is In...

Did you sell any or all of your portfolio?

Did you go to cash? What percent?

Did you move to defensive stocks?

My take... when things get frothy I look at what's either languishing or is getting ripe. I sold some tech ETFs in January and although they are (somewhat) higher, I'm happy to be out of them at this time.

What's your take?

SwordGuy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7595 on: February 23, 2021, 10:52:03 AM »
Question to anyone who is or ever was convinced the Top Is In...

Did you sell any or all of your portfolio?

Did you go to cash? What percent?

Did you move to defensive stocks?

My take... when things get frothy I look at what's either languishing or is getting ripe. I sold some tech ETFs in January and although they are (somewhat) higher, I'm happy to be out of them at this time.

What's your take?
Those sounded like honest questions instead of humorous, satirical comments -- which is what this thread is about...

But I'll play along.   I, like most of the world, hasn't a damn clue about whether the top is in, or which sub-portion of the market is at the top and which is about to rise.   So I just buy and hold and pretty much ignore the ride.   I sell when I need to and not before.    Toss in mitigation strategies to handle big market drops for a couple of years and hey! presto!  it works for us.

bthewalls

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7596 on: February 23, 2021, 03:21:13 PM »
Question to anyone who is or ever was convinced the Top Is In...

Did you sell any or all of your portfolio?

Did you go to cash? What percent?

Did you move to defensive stocks?

My take... when things get frothy I look at what's either languishing or is getting ripe. I sold some tech ETFs in January and although they are (somewhat) higher, I'm happy to be out of them at this time.

What's your take?

I sold most of my tesla

merula

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7597 on: February 23, 2021, 03:27:26 PM »
Question to anyone who is or ever was convinced the Top Is In...

Did you sell any or all of your portfolio?

Did you go to cash? What percent?

Did you move to defensive stocks?

My take... when things get frothy I look at what's either languishing or is getting ripe. I sold some tech ETFs in January and although they are (somewhat) higher, I'm happy to be out of them at this time.

What's your take?
Those sounded like honest questions instead of humorous, satirical comments -- which is what this thread is about...

But I'll play along.   I, like most of the world, hasn't a damn clue about whether the top is in, or which sub-portion of the market is at the top and which is about to rise.   So I just buy and hold and pretty much ignore the ride.   I sell when I need to and not before.    Toss in mitigation strategies to handle big market drops for a couple of years and hey! presto!  it works for us.

Please move your heretical opinions to a different thread. The top is in, the top has always been in, and anyone who says differently will be burned.

Heretical top is in.

SwordGuy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7598 on: February 23, 2021, 05:32:45 PM »
Sophia Loren happy she shorted the market since the Top is In.


TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7599 on: February 23, 2021, 07:27:28 PM »
The Romans were really good at philosophy, the arts, and military conquest. But their math sucks.

If my country was one of the last metric hold outs in the world, I wouldn't cast stones in this direction.

:P

Wouldn't you need to be British to cast stones?