Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 2619845 times)

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9550 on: November 10, 2022, 08:16:20 AM »
Looks like the top is in... again. dangit.

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9551 on: November 10, 2022, 08:39:09 AM »
Looks like the top is in... again. dangit.

Yep, I was afraid of that. It was fun while it lasted guys.

SpaceCow

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9552 on: November 10, 2022, 08:45:36 AM »
Of course stocks go up 5+% on the day my paycheck goes to my 401k...

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9553 on: November 10, 2022, 09:02:48 AM »
Somewhere thorstash was paying with a cat on a trampoline and we got a bounce

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9554 on: November 10, 2022, 10:02:38 AM »
Somewhere thorstash was paying with a cat on a trampoline and we got a bounce

What is the exchange rate on cats and trampolines these days? ;P

Maybe a bear on a Trampoline would be a better image to describe the situation.


Trampoline Top is in!

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9555 on: November 10, 2022, 10:09:34 AM »
Just when you think the top is in on the top is in thread, the top is in!

Heckler

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9556 on: November 10, 2022, 06:38:36 PM »
Looks like the top is in... again. dangit.

Curious why you think so.  VTI is still $42 below its November '21 tippie top!  And SPY is down $75!  Panic!  Run for the hills!


Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9557 on: November 10, 2022, 06:53:17 PM »
You got me curious. It looks like SP 500 total return from September 2017 until September 2022 is Ö.

About 10% per year.

So, the last few years have been completely average.

Uh, average top is in?

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9558 on: November 10, 2022, 07:51:14 PM »
Does that account for inflation?

RWD

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9559 on: November 10, 2022, 08:12:21 PM »

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9560 on: November 10, 2022, 08:14:45 PM »
Does that account for inflation?

6.1% adjusting for inflation:
https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

0.9% below average top is in!

*after accounting for inflation.
**past performance is not indicative of future results

markbike528CBX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9561 on: November 30, 2022, 09:01:00 PM »
Me:  OOOooh! SPX (us, sort of) is up 3 percent.
DW: Don't worry honey, it will be down 4 percent tomorrow.

Even a non interested-in-finances person knows that the TOP IS IN!

ATtiny85

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9562 on: December 01, 2022, 05:14:05 AM »
Me:  OOOooh! SPX (us, sort of) is up 3 percent.
DW: Don't worry honey, it will be down 4 percent tomorrow.

Even a non interested-in-finances person knows that the TOP IS IN!

How long did the grooming take?

markbike528CBX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9563 on: December 01, 2022, 03:08:03 PM »
Me:  OOOooh! SPX (us, sort of) is up 3 percent.
DW: Don't worry honey, it will be down 4 percent tomorrow.

Even a non interested-in-finances person knows that the TOP IS IN!

How long did the grooming take?

No grooming required, I married her this way.
She married me to be the one interested in finances.
BTW the SP500 is down 3.5% today.

dandarc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9564 on: December 01, 2022, 03:11:51 PM »
3.5 points down today. Not 3.5%.

What can this mean? Obviously, the top is in.

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9565 on: December 01, 2022, 03:17:17 PM »
Me:  OOOooh! SPX (us, sort of) is up 3 percent.
DW: Don't worry honey, it will be down 4 percent tomorrow.

Even a non interested-in-finances person knows that the TOP IS IN!

How long did the grooming take?

No grooming required, I married her this way.
She married me to be the one interested in finances.
BTW the SP500 is down 3.5% today.

Um.. what? The S&P500 is basically even today...

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9566 on: December 01, 2022, 04:31:27 PM »
3.5 points down today. Not 3.5%.

What can this mean? Obviously, the top is in.

Clearly that means the S&P500 is going to fall until it hits 100points, at which point we can accurately state a 3.5 point drop is 3.5%.  Top is In!

markbike528CBX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9567 on: December 01, 2022, 04:42:01 PM »
Me:  OOOooh! SPX (us, sort of) is up 3 percent.
DW: Don't worry honey, it will be down 4 percent tomorrow.

Even a non interested-in-finances person knows that the TOP IS IN!

How long did the grooming take?

No grooming required, I married her this way.
She married me to be the one interested in finances.
BTW the SP500 is down 3.5% today.

Um.. what? The S&P500 is basically even today...
Yep, I  SO wanted DW to be a soothsayer, on the level of THE Thorstasche, that I misread the tea leaves (MarketWatch.com).   -0.09%

ChpBstrd

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9568 on: December 02, 2022, 06:57:03 AM »

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9569 on: December 02, 2022, 07:00:34 AM »
And just like that, the top is in, again.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9570 on: December 04, 2022, 06:50:51 AM »
This upcoming week is the top.  The Fed can't like the jobs data, and I imagine they will make that known on Dec 14 (they are in a quiet period until then).

RWTL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9571 on: December 04, 2022, 07:16:25 AM »
This upcoming week is the top.  The Fed can't like the jobs data, and I imagine they will make that known on Dec 14 (they are in a quiet period until then).

CPI is released the day before 12/13.  If that is favorable, new top will be in. 

ender

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9572 on: December 04, 2022, 07:48:47 AM »
So many false apostles of Top is In here.

Are you sure top is in?

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9573 on: December 04, 2022, 12:07:32 PM »
This upcoming week is the top.  The Fed can't like the jobs data, and I imagine they will make that known on Dec 14 (they are in a quiet period until then).
CPI is released the day before 12/13.  If that is favorable, new top will be in.
On Friday the S&P 500 fell 1.7% on the jobs data - and then recovered to just -0.1%.  This market might talk itself into liking a bad CPI print.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9574 on: December 04, 2022, 09:34:17 PM »
This upcoming week is the top.  The Fed can't like the jobs data, and I imagine they will make that known on Dec 14 (they are in a quiet period until then).
CPI is released the day before 12/13.  If that is favorable, new top will be in.
On Friday the S&P 500 fell 1.7% on the jobs data - and then recovered to just -0.1%.  This market might talk itself into liking a bad CPI print.
I've also noticed the relentless optimism. People are actually talking themselves into going long the stock market because the Fed will be raising rates by ONLY 0.50% per meeting from now on until 7.9% PCE inflation equals 2%. They envision themselves buying the dip potentially months before the recession predicted by multiple yield curve inversion, the TIPS market, the National Financial Conditions Index, the size and speed of the rate hiking cycle, falling manufacturing indices, and falling consumer sentiment. In a normal world, wouldn't unmistakable recession signals and 0.5% rate hikes be scaring investors into treasuries?

Of course, optimism is always a sign of the top.


MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9576 on: December 05, 2022, 05:31:51 AM »
CNN Fear & Greed Index shows "greed", but not yet "extreme greed".  The top is almost in.
https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9577 on: January 03, 2023, 11:29:22 AM »
Four weeks without a post......y'all really scared this time?

2023 top is in ;)

Tyson

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9578 on: January 03, 2023, 11:37:55 AM »
I think we're all just waiting for our Illuminati lord thorstach to initiate the apocalypse ritual.

RWD

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9579 on: January 03, 2023, 11:49:23 AM »
Four weeks without a post......y'all really scared this time?

2023 top is in ;)
Everyone was hoping that this thread dropping off the first page would signal the bottom being in:
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/bottom-is-in/msg3095078/#msg3095078

ender

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9580 on: January 03, 2023, 12:21:15 PM »
How can top be in when it was already in? All downhill from here

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9581 on: January 03, 2023, 12:24:00 PM »
And just like that, the top is in, again.

I limit myself to calling the top only once per month.  January Top is In.

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9582 on: January 03, 2023, 12:41:01 PM »
Four weeks without a post......y'all really scared this time?

2023 top is in ;)
Everyone was hoping that this thread dropping off the first page would signal the bottom being in:
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/bottom-is-in/msg3095078/#msg3095078

Shoot! We were so close!

Now it is like Punxsutawney Phil. 4 more weeks of the top being in.

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9583 on: January 03, 2023, 12:55:34 PM »

Shoot! We were so close!

Now it is like Punxsutawney Phil. 4 more weeks of the top being in.



Ground Hog top is in!

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9584 on: January 03, 2023, 02:08:24 PM »

Shoot! We were so close!

Now it is like Punxsutawney Phil. 4 more weeks of the top being in.



Ground Hog top is in!

Watch out for that first Top, itís a doozie

ATtiny85

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9585 on: January 03, 2023, 02:25:35 PM »

Watch out for that first Top, itís a doozie

There is no first, there is only "only" when it comes to Top.

Watch out for Top, it's a doozie.

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9586 on: January 03, 2023, 06:10:08 PM »

Watch out for that first Top, itís a doozie

There is no first, there is only "only" when it comes to Top.

Watch out for Top, it's a doozie.
Yeah, but everyone remembers their first Top.

dignam

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9587 on: January 04, 2023, 07:34:34 AM »

Watch out for that first Top, itís a doozie

There is no first, there is only "only" when it comes to Top.

Watch out for Top, it's a doozie.
Yeah, but everyone remembers their first Top.

It was exciting but over way too quickly.

ATtiny85

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9588 on: January 04, 2023, 10:00:14 AM »

Watch out for that first Top, itís a doozie

There is no first, there is only "only" when it comes to Top.

Watch out for Top, it's a doozie.
Yeah, but everyone remembers their first Top.

It was exciting but over way too quickly.

Premature Top is In.

Villanelle

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9589 on: January 04, 2023, 02:49:33 PM »
My first top?  I remember not quite knowing if it was in yet.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9590 on: January 04, 2023, 03:46:58 PM »
But the market is up today.  Don't we usually call the top when the market is down?  Market top is backwards looking

ender

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9591 on: January 04, 2023, 11:00:55 PM »
But the market is up today.  Don't we usually call the top when the market is down?  Market top is backwards looking

we only call the top in when the day ends in "day"

ATtiny85

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9592 on: January 05, 2023, 05:23:51 AM »
But the market is up today.  Don't we usually call the top when the market is down?  Market top is backwards looking

we only call the top in when the day ends in "day"

It's a good point. Those are the only ones where we can be confident that Top is In. Simply too much uncertainty in the others...

Anyone is free to sift through the thread and try to find counterpoints to it.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9593 on: January 12, 2023, 06:14:49 AM »
The beauty of calling the top in this thread is that you are always right, one way or the other

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9594 on: January 12, 2023, 11:08:05 AM »
The beauty of calling the top in this thread is that you are always right, one way or the other
As long as fear is back and earnings will be a reality check, then the top is in.

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9595 on: January 12, 2023, 12:00:28 PM »
I was afraid I missed it.

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9596 on: January 12, 2023, 12:43:11 PM »
The beauty of calling the top in this thread is that you are always right, one way or the other
As long as fear is back and earnings will be a reality check, then the top is in.

VIX and XIV have to do their thing too.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9597 on: January 12, 2023, 03:59:23 PM »
The beauty of calling the top in this thread is that you are always right, one way or the other
As long as fear is back and earnings will be a reality check, then the top is in.

VIX and XIV have to do their thing too.

Also SPY something something. 

Scandium

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9598 on: January 13, 2023, 12:21:55 PM »

Watch out for that first Top, itís a doozie

There is no first, there is only "only" when it comes to Top.

Watch out for Top, it's a doozie.
Yeah, but everyone remembers their first Top.

It was exciting but over way too quickly.

Premature Top is In.

I determined that the top was in, but it was early. It was a premature evaluation.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9599 on: January 13, 2023, 01:07:18 PM »

Watch out for that first Top, itís a doozie

There is no first, there is only "only" when it comes to Top.

Watch out for Top, it's a doozie.
Yeah, but everyone remembers their first Top.

It was exciting but over way too quickly.

Premature Top is In.

I determined that the top was in, but it was early. It was a premature evaluation.

I was dreaming about the Top last night, it was a nocturnal envision.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!