Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 3134577 times)

dividendman

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1894
Re: Top is in
« Reply #850 on: October 02, 2017, 01:48:24 PM »
Sigh, new top is in.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8433
  • Age: 47
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: Top is in
« Reply #851 on: October 02, 2017, 01:51:29 PM »
Sigh, new top is in.

This thread is getting boring.  It's almost like the stock market wants to go up.

To be clear, the day after this thread was created the 500 appears to have closed at 2328.95, and then never dropped that low again on its way to an 8.5% runup since then.  It looks to me like he accidentally called the bottom.
« Last Edit: October 02, 2017, 01:57:04 PM by sol »

JAYSLOL

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2131
Re: Top is in
« Reply #852 on: October 02, 2017, 02:36:26 PM »
Sigh, new top is in.

This thread is getting boring.  It's almost like the stock market wants to go up.

To be clear, the day after this thread was created the 500 appears to have closed at 2328.95, and then never dropped that low again on its way to an 8.5% runup since then.  It looks to me like he accidentally called the bottom.

No, he called the top... at the bottom.  Or at least called a top at a bottom.  Either way, our TOP priority should be to get to the BOTTOM of this TOP, otherwise this thread won't STOP.

obstinate

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1147
Re: Top is in
« Reply #853 on: October 02, 2017, 02:50:11 PM »

DavidAnnArbor

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2266
  • Age: 58
  • Location: Ann Arbor, Michigan
Re: Top is in
« Reply #854 on: October 02, 2017, 03:04:13 PM »
TOP

If Warsh becomes Fed Chair expect a recession and stock market drop. Warsh lacks the intellectual heft needed to manage monetary affairs. He misunderstood the efforts of Bernanke and Yellen to fulfill the Fed's mission of both 2% inflation target as well as low unemployment.

Exflyboy

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8374
  • Age: 62
  • Location: Corvallis, Oregon
  • Expat Brit living in the New World..:)
Re: Top is in
« Reply #855 on: October 02, 2017, 03:23:50 PM »
Sigh, new top is in.

This thread is getting boring.  It's almost like the stock market wants to go up.

To be clear, the day after this thread was created the 500 appears to have closed at 2328.95, and then never dropped that low again on its way to an 8.5% runup since then.  It looks to me like he accidentally called the bottom.

Well its still an inflexion point so still pretty impressive..:)

obstinate

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1147
Re: Top is in
« Reply #856 on: October 02, 2017, 03:30:33 PM »
TOP

If Warsh becomes Fed Chair expect a recession and stock market drop. Warsh lacks the intellectual heft needed to manage monetary affairs. He misunderstood the efforts of Bernanke and Yellen to fulfill the Fed's mission of both 2% inflation target as well as low unemployment.
I kinda do. But also I know that I'm a dumbass, so I'm just gonna keep buying and holding.

Mr Mark

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1229
  • Location: Planet Earth
  • Achieved Financial Independence summer 2014. RE'18
Re: Top is in
« Reply #857 on: October 02, 2017, 11:17:27 PM »
TOP

If Warsh becomes Fed Chair expect a recession and stock market drop. Warsh lacks the intellectual heft needed to manage monetary affairs. He misunderstood the efforts of Bernanke and Yellen to fulfill the Fed's mission of both 2% inflation target as well as low unemployment.

Yep. Hopefully Yellen will hold in there...

wienerdog

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 587
Re: Top is in
« Reply #858 on: October 03, 2017, 07:47:28 AM »
New top is in.  Chickens are off the roost with reserves to come.  VIX in a Triple Lindy that Thorton would be proud of.

fattest_foot

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 856
Re: Top is in
« Reply #859 on: October 03, 2017, 08:58:45 AM »
This thread is getting boring.  It's almost like the stock market wants to go up.

To be clear, the day after this thread was created the 500 appears to have closed at 2328.95, and then never dropped that low again on its way to an 8.5% runup since then.  It looks to me like he accidentally called the bottom.

This thread should be used as a lesson in not timing the market.

At this point, a correction (10% or more) would bring you close to when the "top was in."

That's a pretty insane prospect. While we could certainly have a recession in the next year, a correction is much more likely.

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 23048
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: Top is in
« Reply #860 on: October 03, 2017, 09:00:44 AM »
While we could certainly have a recession in the next year, a correction is much more likely.

So . . . you're calling the top?

Exflyboy

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8374
  • Age: 62
  • Location: Corvallis, Oregon
  • Expat Brit living in the New World..:)
Re: Top is in
« Reply #861 on: October 03, 2017, 09:30:17 AM »
Top will be in today!

The bigger question.. What will I do about it?... Answer.. Nothing..:)

Tyson

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3023
  • Age: 51
  • Location: Denver, Colorado
Re: Top is in
« Reply #862 on: October 03, 2017, 10:28:06 AM »
Top will be in today!

The bigger question.. What will I do about it?... Answer.. Nothing..:)

Awesome.  And perfect.

farfromfire

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 230
Re: Top is in
« Reply #863 on: October 03, 2017, 11:17:29 AM »
Today in technical analysis:
Quote
The prevailing upturn punctuates a bull flag pinned to the early-September breakout.
Uh huh
Quote
Tactically, an intermediate-term S&P 500 target continues to project to the 2,550 area.

Conversely, the former range top (2,508) pivots to near-term support, and is followed by a firmer floor matching the 2,480 breakout point, and the 50-day moving average, currently 2,475. The S&P’s intermediate-term uptrend is firmly intact barring a violation.
makes sense
Quote
Moving to specific names, Dow 30 component Intel Corp. INTC, +1.54%  has taken flight. (Yield = 2.8%.)
Technically, the shares have knifed from a modified head-and-shoulders bottom, a pattern defined by the May, July and August lows.
How did I miss that?!

dougules

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2897
Re: Top is in
« Reply #864 on: October 03, 2017, 11:43:55 AM »
Unrelated to the stock market, the top is in.

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 23048
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: Top is in
« Reply #865 on: October 03, 2017, 11:45:15 AM »
Top != Tip

Retire-Canada

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8659
Re: Top is in
« Reply #866 on: October 03, 2017, 11:51:34 AM »

fattest_foot

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 856
Re: Top is in
« Reply #867 on: October 03, 2017, 11:58:05 AM »
So . . . you're calling the top?

Absolutely not. Just pointing out that a correction, which is a pretty significant event, would still only bring us down to the levels the market was at a year ago. Heck, even a major recession only likely takes us to 2015/2016 levels or so.

dougules

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2897

OurTown

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1368
  • Age: 54
  • Location: Tennessee

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8433
  • Age: 47
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: Top is in
« Reply #870 on: October 03, 2017, 01:54:36 PM »
We're coming up on the 30 year anniversary of Black Monday, later this month.  Who is scared?

Not me, I'll be riding the next correction all the way down.  I'm kind of hoping it happens sooner rather than later, but I'll be passively invested in the index all throughout either way.

techwiz

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3716
  • Location: Ontario
Re: Top is in
« Reply #871 on: October 03, 2017, 02:07:39 PM »
Quote
We're coming up on the 30 year anniversary of Black Monday

I was not scared until I looked it up, Black Monday October 19, 1987 and we are also coming up on the 88 years anniversary Black Thursday on October 24, Black Monday and Black Tuesday October 28 and October 29, 1929. October can be a scary month ,but I will not be changing my long term investment plan just because an anniversary or Halloween is coming.




« Last Edit: October 03, 2017, 02:26:14 PM by techwiz »

solon

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2359
  • Age: 1823
  • Location: OH
Re: Top is in
« Reply #872 on: October 03, 2017, 02:09:51 PM »
Know what else is coming up? The 100th anniversary of Red October. It's been 100 years since the Bolshevik revolution. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_Revolution

Not sure what that signifies, but what better thread to put it in?

Million2000

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 136
Re: Top is in
« Reply #873 on: October 03, 2017, 03:02:07 PM »
Know what else is coming up? The 100th anniversary of Red October. It's been 100 years since the Bolshevik revolution. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_Revolution

Not sure what that signifies, but what better thread to put it in?

It sounds weird, but that actually happened in November. Russia at that point used a slightly different calendar. To us in the west it happened on November 7th. That must mean the top doesn't occur until November then.

solon

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2359
  • Age: 1823
  • Location: OH
Re: Top is in
« Reply #874 on: October 03, 2017, 03:03:24 PM »
Know what else is coming up? The 100th anniversary of Red October. It's been 100 years since the Bolshevik revolution. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_Revolution

Not sure what that signifies, but what better thread to put it in?

It sounds weird, but that actually happened in November. Russia at that point used a slightly different calendar. To us in the west it happened on November 7th. That must mean the top doesn't occur until November then.

Well, whatever. Top Red Dow, or something.

Retire-Canada

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8659
Re: Top is in
« Reply #875 on: October 03, 2017, 03:03:54 PM »
It sounds weird, but that actually happened in November. Russia at that point used a slightly different calendar. To us in the west it happened on November 7th. That must mean the top doesn't occur until November then.

I read a Tom Clancy financial thriller about that once...it was called Hunt for Red OcTOPer!

Aegishjalmur

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 293
Re: Top is in
« Reply #876 on: October 03, 2017, 03:18:31 PM »
Know what else is coming up? The 100th anniversary of Red October. It's been 100 years since the Bolshevik revolution. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_Revolution

Not sure what that signifies, but what better thread to put it in?

It sounds weird, but that actually happened in November. Russia at that point used a slightly different calendar. To us in the west it happened on November 7th. That must mean the top doesn't occur until November then.


You know what else is in November? Guy Fawkes Night.

"Remember, remember, the 5th of November
 The Gunpowder Treason and plot;
 I know of no reason why Gunpowder Treason
 Should ever be The Top."


So I guess the top won't be in on the 5th.....


bobechs

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1065
Re: Top is in
« Reply #877 on: October 03, 2017, 04:11:00 PM »
22646.32

This is it.  The Top.  There is no question whatever that this line can go in one and only one direction from  this point-down.

It is simple physics.


Radagast

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2538
  • One Does Not Simply Work Into Mordor
Re: Top is in
« Reply #878 on: October 03, 2017, 11:10:15 PM »
Can someone tell me when the top will be in? I need to harvest some gains before the end of the year (but ideally after October 15).

ZiziPB

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3417
  • Location: The Other Side
Re: Top is in
« Reply #879 on: October 04, 2017, 04:53:18 AM »
Can someone tell me when the top will be in? I need to harvest some gains before the end of the year (but ideally after October 15).

+1
Yeah, can you guys stop playing around and tell us when the real top will be in? 

Exflyboy

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8374
  • Age: 62
  • Location: Corvallis, Oregon
  • Expat Brit living in the New World..:)
Re: Top is in
« Reply #880 on: October 04, 2017, 10:16:27 AM »
I told you yesterday the top was in.. Please pay attention!..:)

ZiziPB

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3417
  • Location: The Other Side
Re: Top is in
« Reply #881 on: October 04, 2017, 10:20:17 AM »
I told you yesterday the top was in.. Please pay attention!..:)

But was that the REAL TOP?  Because it looks like the markets may finish up again today.  All this speculation and memes and jokes are well and good, but I would like to know when the REAL TOP will be in.

Exflyboy

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8374
  • Age: 62
  • Location: Corvallis, Oregon
  • Expat Brit living in the New World..:)
Re: Top is in
« Reply #882 on: October 04, 2017, 10:47:08 AM »
I told you yesterday the top was in.. Please pay attention!..:)

But was that the REAL TOP?  Because it looks like the markets may finish up again today.  All this speculation and memes and jokes are well and good, but I would like to know when the REAL TOP will be in.

Hah wouldn't we all.

OurTown

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1368
  • Age: 54
  • Location: Tennessee
Re: Top is in
« Reply #883 on: October 04, 2017, 11:03:39 AM »
I will tell you the real top for 2017 . . . next year.

kendallf

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1068
  • Age: 57
  • Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: Top is in
« Reply #884 on: October 04, 2017, 11:51:04 AM »
One day old lottery tickets for sale, half price!  Only one less chance in 100,000,000 to win!

Mr Mark

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1229
  • Location: Planet Earth
  • Achieved Financial Independence summer 2014. RE'18
Re: Top is in
« Reply #885 on: October 04, 2017, 09:19:25 PM »
I told you yesterday the top was in.. Please pay attention!..:)

But was that the REAL TOP?  Because it looks like the markets may finish up again today.  All this speculation and memes and jokes are well and good, but I would like to know when the REAL TOP will be in.

The 2017 TOP will be when Trump fails to reconfirm Yellen and appoints Walsh as head of the Fed so about 1-2 weeks away.

TomTX

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5345
  • Location: Texas
Re: Top is in
« Reply #886 on: October 05, 2017, 05:03:37 AM »
So . . . you're calling the top?

Absolutely not. Just pointing out that a correction, which is a pretty significant event, would still only bring us down to the levels the market was at a year ago. Heck, even a major recession only likely takes us to 2015/2016 levels or so.

Just have it wait long enough for my in-kind transfer of VTI to Merrill Edge so that I can harvest a free $500.* I'm not far over the threshold...


*Net $500. Going to get paid $600 into the IRAs after 90 days, but there will be $100 in closure fees whenever I end up closing the accounts. Plus a bunch of benefits from Bank of America Preferred Rewards. Like turning my 2% back @ Costco card into a 3.5% back at Costco card...

TomTX

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5345
  • Location: Texas
Re: Top is in
« Reply #887 on: October 05, 2017, 05:08:04 AM »
Know what else is coming up? The 100th anniversary of Red October. It's been 100 years since the Bolshevik revolution. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_Revolution

Not sure what that signifies, but what better thread to put it in?

100 years?  Sean Connery sure has a long lifespan!

DavidAnnArbor

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2266
  • Age: 58
  • Location: Ann Arbor, Michigan
Re: Top is in
« Reply #888 on: October 05, 2017, 08:34:11 AM »
Current Shiller PE Ratio: 31.02

farmecologist

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 597
Re: Top is in
« Reply #889 on: October 05, 2017, 08:54:12 AM »

This thread is too funny.

I know this is all in jest but most of you sound like the 'irrational exuberance' folks before the '08 crash. 

Of course, I say this in jest.  ;-)


frugalnacho

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5055
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Metro Detroit
Re: Top is in
« Reply #890 on: October 05, 2017, 09:06:36 AM »
It's not gonnna stop, it's never gonna stop!

https://youtu.be/2bjC-VMUhIs?t=81

OurTown

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1368
  • Age: 54
  • Location: Tennessee
Re: Top is in
« Reply #891 on: October 05, 2017, 09:31:46 AM »
If I knew for sure a correction was coming and I knew for sure when it was coming, I could time the market.  I don't know, so I can't time the market.

I thought we were headed for a massive crash on Nov. 9, 2016, because HOLY SHIT THE USA JUST FUCKING ELECTED DONALD TRUMP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It didn't crash.  I know nothing.  Keep Calm and Carry On.

BTDretire

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3074
Re: Top is in
« Reply #892 on: October 05, 2017, 09:38:41 AM »
If you would, please give me one days notice before the market top,
so I can start selling the day of the top.
                              Thanks
 P.S. if you could make it the top in VTSAX that would be helpful.
 While I'm here, the top will be a close of today.

  Maybe.

sirdoug007

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 585
  • Age: 43
  • Location: Houston, TX
Re: Top is in
« Reply #893 on: October 05, 2017, 10:38:16 AM »
Quote
We're coming up on the 30 year anniversary of Black Monday

I was not scared until I looked it up, Black Monday October 19, 1987 and we are also coming up on the 88 years anniversary Black Thursday on October 24, Black Monday and Black Tuesday October 28 and October 29, 1929. October can be a scary month ,but I will not be changing my long term investment plan just because an anniversary or Halloween is coming.

You didn't even mention Friday the 13th coming in 8 days!!!  Oh btw, S&P500 at $2,550.  Top is in!

dougules

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2897
Re: Top is in
« Reply #894 on: October 05, 2017, 10:44:16 AM »
Current Shiller PE Ratio: 31.02

I've been saying it feels like we're living in Nineteen Ninety-Seventeen with all the 90's music and fashion coming back around.  It looks like outrageous PE ratios are back in vogue too. 

JAYSLOL

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2131
Re: Top is in
« Reply #895 on: October 05, 2017, 10:56:14 AM »
2016 sure felt a lot like 1996.  Clinton running for president, Independence Day hitting movie theatres, The X Files back on TV etc

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 23048
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: Top is in
« Reply #896 on: October 05, 2017, 11:20:40 AM »
2016 sure felt a lot like 1996.  Clinton running for president, Independence Day hitting movie theatres, The X Files back on TV etc


PLEASE tell me that baggy jeans will make a comeback!  I've got four pairs from the early 2000s in my closet just waiting for fashion to correct itself.

OurTown

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1368
  • Age: 54
  • Location: Tennessee
Re: Top is in
« Reply #897 on: October 05, 2017, 11:35:24 AM »
Apparently ripped jeans made a comeback, but only for young people.  I popped into an "American Eagle" and 1) it looked like the second coming of George Michael, and 2) everybody was 20 years younger than me.

fattest_foot

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 856
Re: Top is in
« Reply #898 on: October 05, 2017, 12:00:58 PM »
Current Shiller PE Ratio: 31.02

I've been saying it feels like we're living in Nineteen Ninety-Seventeen with all the 90's music and fashion coming back around.  It looks like outrageous PE ratios are back in vogue too.

Good ole 19917. I remember it like it was yesterday...

Mr. Boh

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 149
  • Location: The Land of Pleasant Living
Re: Top is in
« Reply #899 on: October 05, 2017, 03:52:09 PM »
Another top today? There are so many different tops in so many different indices that I'm getting confused. When are we going to be there already?