There are a few mitigating factors:1) the trade war caused many to pull forward imports to avoid expected tariff increases, so inventory levels are higher than normal2) Chinese New Year is a time of normal slowdown coming out of China so the impact relative to what is normal this time of year is dampened3) the severely impacted area is pretty far inland, while the coastal provinces are much more important for total export output (I work for a retailer/manufacturer and out of our >100 Chinese supplier locations, I don't think even one is Hubei province, though there are second-order effects where possibly our suppliers have suppliers there)4) US companies sourcing from China have been diversifying into other countries (e.g. Vietnam) even prior to the trade war, though the trade war has intensified that process; rapidly rising wages in China has also made other countries more competitive as sourcing options in recent years5) US GDP is $21.4T compared with total imports from China of $452B--trade with China is just not that big compared to the total size of the economyconclusion: it's priced in and stonks only go up
Stonks only go up so the Top isn't in. More Tops for all!
Quote from: wienerdog on February 11, 2020, 06:07:01 AMStonks only go up so the Top isn't in. More Tops for all!
Quote from: dragoncar on February 11, 2020, 09:17:56 AMQuote from: wienerdog on February 11, 2020, 06:07:01 AMStonks only go up so the Top isn't in. More Tops for all!https://youtu.be/SMRg9mKcyhM
Not only Stonks but stocks seem to be going up too. Hurray for more tops
Quote from: Roland of Gilead on February 07, 2020, 10:18:27 PMI placed a small wager on a local maxima. I purchased 100 SPY $325 puts for $3.40 today, expiring March 20Essentially controlling $3,250,000 of stock with $34,000. Just on a gut feeling that the economic impact from the virus hasn't been priced in (yeah I know everything is priced in, except when it isn't).I am probably out at a 5% dip in the market, which would make about $70,000 profit.Down $3,500 after the first day of trading. Don't doubt ur vibe. To be honest, I also would have expected the impact on supply chains would have had more of an effect on revenue and share prices. Good luck with the bet.
I placed a small wager on a local maxima. I purchased 100 SPY $325 puts for $3.40 today, expiring March 20Essentially controlling $3,250,000 of stock with $34,000. Just on a gut feeling that the economic impact from the virus hasn't been priced in (yeah I know everything is priced in, except when it isn't).I am probably out at a 5% dip in the market, which would make about $70,000 profit.
Quote from: aspiringnomad on February 10, 2020, 08:09:32 PMQuote from: Roland of Gilead on February 07, 2020, 10:18:27 PMI placed a small wager on a local maxima. I purchased 100 SPY $325 puts for $3.40 today, expiring March 20Essentially controlling $3,250,000 of stock with $34,000. Just on a gut feeling that the economic impact from the virus hasn't been priced in (yeah I know everything is priced in, except when it isn't).I am probably out at a 5% dip in the market, which would make about $70,000 profit.Down $3,500 after the first day of trading. Don't doubt ur vibe. To be honest, I also would have expected the impact on supply chains would have had more of an effect on revenue and share prices. Good luck with the bet.It is down more like $10,000. Not really concerned though, plenty of time left until March 20. I do have other irons in the fire, made $6,000 on Nektar today.
Do you actually think SPY is going to go below 325 before March 20 though? Time is not really on your side since it is now eroding the value of the puts even if the market stays flat (since the Top is In).
Quote from: EscapeVelocity2020 on February 12, 2020, 11:40:52 AMDo you actually think SPY is going to go below 325 before March 20 though? Time is not really on your side since it is now eroding the value of the puts even if the market stays flat (since the Top is In).Sure, anything is possible. The market was already getting ahead of itself before the corona virus. This is just panic buying FOMO. In a week or two investors are going to start looking at missed 1Q earnings.Other things could tank the market. Bernie winning more. The virus not really being as over as wall street is pricing in.I am pretty comfortable with it, and it lets me trade around in other accounts without fear of waking up one morning and seeing the whole market down 10%.
Quote from: Roland of Gilead on February 12, 2020, 12:13:42 PMQuote from: EscapeVelocity2020 on February 12, 2020, 11:40:52 AMDo you actually think SPY is going to go below 325 before March 20 though? Time is not really on your side since it is now eroding the value of the puts even if the market stays flat (since the Top is In).Sure, anything is possible. The market was already getting ahead of itself before the corona virus. This is just panic buying FOMO. In a week or two investors are going to start looking at missed 1Q earnings.Other things could tank the market. Bernie winning more. The virus not really being as over as wall street is pricing in.I am pretty comfortable with it, and it lets me trade around in other accounts without fear of waking up one morning and seeing the whole market down 10%.I just don't understand active traders. You're adding work and stress to your life, and for what? You won't outperform the market, over time. And if you do it will be a result of luck. All the trading, knowledge and savvy you think you have is just fooling you into thinking you have more control than you do. To me, the point of FIRE is to be able to reduce the amount of stress in my life. Active trading (to me) would be even more stressful than my regular job.
Do you understand gambling? Because it’s similar/sameAlso it seems like Roland is saying that earnings will be a reality check!
Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.
Yeah, evidently the top was not as in as one might have thought.On the plus side, this must mean the wuflu is pretty much over, so I did accomplish that!Also Trump is getting another 4 years, I accomplished that too, but I am not proud of it.
Also Trump is getting another 4 years, I accomplished that too, but I am not proud of it.
Roland Schitt?https://media.giphy.com/media/xT1XGGvBinYOo6Gd56/giphy.gif
Down $13,400 as of today's market close per the quote I just checked.
Quote from: aspiringnomad on February 12, 2020, 02:11:43 PMDown $13,400 as of today's market close per the quote I just checked.Now down *only* $7,000.It could go either way now, as always. 15,000 new cases of flu seems to be having an effect on the market although it was probably just a change in the way they were being diagnosed.I consider the puts sort of a flu protection device if we get a real outbreak in the USA, like 1000s of cases. Then the market likely will drop 10%. I hope this does not happen. I would be fine eating the loss on the puts instead of having trade disrupted that much.Its gambling, but so is taking a cruise right now, and there are plenty of folks still lined up to go.
Not good. Portfolio down 0.05% today. Fear is back.
How come my MW has increased by X this month when my paycheck only was y and y < X ?
Quote from: Monerexia on February 13, 2020, 10:00:00 PMNot good. Portfolio down 0.05% today. Fear is back.You should have cashed out on Wednesday when you had the chance.
Quote from: mies on February 14, 2020, 04:56:19 AMQuote from: Monerexia on February 13, 2020, 10:00:00 PMNot good. Portfolio down 0.05% today. Fear is back.You should have cashed out on Wednesday when you had the chance.Yes I wished that too and was sad! But yikes today up 0.14% so made three times as much today as I lost yesterday. That silly top.
I think DJ Khaled really captured the essence of the top is in for me:
Quote from: brooklynmoney on February 18, 2020, 10:17:34 PMI think DJ Khaled really captured the essence of the top is in for me: Was that actually his song or he was making an appearance to rap about the top?Oh by the way Top wasn't in as there was another top. Anyone in for 3400?
Quote from: wienerdog on February 19, 2020, 10:29:09 AMQuote from: brooklynmoney on February 18, 2020, 10:17:34 PMI think DJ Khaled really captured the essence of the top is in for me: Was that actually his song or he was making an appearance to rap about the top?Oh by the way Top wasn't in as there was another top. Anyone in for 3400?Haven't you learned anything from this thread? Top is in. We'll never make 3400. Ever. The NYSE will just be crumbling abandoned building soon.
Quote from: dougules on February 19, 2020, 11:08:20 AMQuote from: wienerdog on February 19, 2020, 10:29:09 AMQuote from: brooklynmoney on February 18, 2020, 10:17:34 PMI think DJ Khaled really captured the essence of the top is in for me: Was that actually his song or he was making an appearance to rap about the top?Oh by the way Top wasn't in as there was another top. Anyone in for 3400?Haven't you learned anything from this thread? Top is in. We'll never make 3400. Ever. The NYSE will just be crumbling abandoned building soon.
Quote from: Roland of Gilead on February 13, 2020, 08:07:28 AMQuote from: aspiringnomad on February 12, 2020, 02:11:43 PMDown $13,400 as of today's market close per the quote I just checked.Now down *only* $7,000.It could go either way now, as always. 15,000 new cases of flu seems to be having an effect on the market although it was probably just a change in the way they were being diagnosed.I consider the puts sort of a flu protection device if we get a real outbreak in the USA, like 1000s of cases. Then the market likely will drop 10%. I hope this does not happen. I would be fine eating the loss on the puts instead of having trade disrupted that much.Its gambling, but so is taking a cruise right now, and there are plenty of folks still lined up to go.Still holding? if the market drops 10% from its current spot in the next 30 days.
https://www.ccn.com/history-says-a-february-stock-market-crash-is-inevitable/Sell!!!
Yahoo deleted my finance account so I can't track my portfolio in realtime anymore (I use Personal Capital but it has sync issues with multiple accounts right now). They restored my account but my portfolio info is gone. I suspect the server my info was on died and they didn't have redundancy/backup? Bottom line... I think I'm up based on the indices but more likely the TOP IS IN
I think I'm up based on the indices but more likely the TOP IS IN
The crazy thing is if the market drops a bunch it'll still be way up since this thread was created lol