Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 675575 times)

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2600 on: March 26, 2018, 04:27:49 PM »



Ominous

Quote

“The extent of the deterioration in equities is very much a concern given the combination of near-term technical damage, along with the decline in longer-term momentum after having reached record overbought conditions into late January,” wrote Mark Newton, technical analyst at Newton Advisors, in a Monday research note.

I can really feel the gravity of the situation.

Lews Therin

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2601 on: March 26, 2018, 04:55:32 PM »



Ominous

Quote

“The extent of the deterioration in equities is very much a concern given the combination of near-term technical damage, along with the decline in longer-term momentum after having reached record overbought conditions into late January,” wrote Mark Newton, technical analyst at Newton Advisors, in a Monday research note.

I can really feel the gravity of the situation.

Well played sir, well played.

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2602 on: March 26, 2018, 06:25:57 PM »



Ominous

Quote

“The extent of the deterioration in equities is very much a concern given the combination of near-term technical damage, along with the decline in longer-term momentum after having reached record overbought conditions into late January,” wrote Mark Newton, technical analyst at Newton Advisors, in a Monday research note.

I can really feel the gravity of the situation.


dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2603 on: March 26, 2018, 07:03:40 PM »


I can really feel the gravy of the situation.

Stove top gravy is in


aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2604 on: March 26, 2018, 09:52:36 PM »


I can really feel the gravy of the situation.

Stove top gravy is in




Dunno. That one's a stretch even by this thread's standards.



dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2605 on: March 27, 2018, 12:46:02 AM »


Dunno. That one's a stretch even by this thread's standards.


Stretch top is in


2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2606 on: March 27, 2018, 08:40:36 AM »


Dunno. That one's a stretch even by this thread's standards.


Stretch top is in



Stretch Bodysuit is in

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2607 on: March 27, 2018, 10:12:41 AM »
stretch

2Birds1Stone

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dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2611 on: March 27, 2018, 08:28:24 PM »

Rural

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2612 on: March 27, 2018, 08:35:06 PM »

Stretch Bodysuit is in


I can never, ever unsee that...

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2613 on: March 27, 2018, 09:05:10 PM »

markbike528CBX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2614 on: March 28, 2018, 07:31:58 AM »

Stretch Bodysuit is in


I can never, ever unsee that...

=D
I can never, ever unsee that..especially since I saw it at work.  eek... glad no one was looking at my 40" screen.   Double glad that I'm FI and have essentially already given notice.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2615 on: March 28, 2018, 07:58:48 AM »

Stretch Bodysuit is in


I can never, ever unsee that...

I think we've found thorstachs crime Top fighting suit

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2616 on: March 28, 2018, 08:13:29 AM »

Stretch Bodysuit is in


I can never, ever unsee that...

I think we've found thorstachs crime Top fighting suit
That is funny....probably really close to the truth but still funny!

KTG

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2617 on: March 28, 2018, 08:34:18 AM »
As a fairly new Mustachian, and recently buying into simple investing etc and not trying to time the market, I have to admit I am disappointed I went along with it as I have done. I threw in the rest of my investment money in late Jan which seems like it will be the peak for some time now, and have basically been frustrated since. I know a couple of months is no time for many of you, but I would have preferred to have kept more cash on hand to play the volatility, as a couple of friends I have have done. One just made an easy $20k flipping SQ. I have read Bogleheads, I have read A Simple Path to Wealth, and I am reading the Millionaire next door. But as far as I am concerned, I am off to a horrible start. And I do not think things will end well in 2018, and have all this money invested in the hopes it is the right thing to do.

Now someone will gleefully post 'top is in' as a response to this, and maybe I deserve it. But I feel pretty disappointed and even a little angry about this. Ultimately its my own fault, I make my own decisions. I hope I am proven wrong.

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2618 on: March 28, 2018, 08:41:34 AM »
As a fairly new Mustachian, and recently buying into simple investing etc and not trying to time the market, I have to admit I am disappointed I went along with it as I have done. I threw in the rest of my investment money in late Jan which seems like it will be the peak for some time now, and have basically been frustrated since. I know a couple of months is no time for many of you, but I would have preferred to have kept more cash on hand to play the volatility, as a couple of friends I have have done. One just made an easy $20k flipping SQ. I have read Bogleheads, I have read A Simple Path to Wealth, and I am reading the Millionaire next door. But as far as I am concerned, I am off to a horrible start. And I do not think things will end well in 2018, and have all this money invested in the hopes it is the right thing to do.

Now someone will gleefully post 'top is in' as a response to this, and maybe I deserve it. But I feel pretty disappointed and even a little angry about this. Ultimately its my own fault, I make my own decisions. I hope I am proven wrong.

Stay the course.  I started investing in 2007.  Shit looked an awful lot more grim for an awful lot longer.

alanB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2619 on: March 28, 2018, 08:49:18 AM »
As a fairly new Mustachian, and recently buying into simple investing etc and not trying to time the market, I have to admit I am disappointed I went along with it as I have done. I threw in the rest of my investment money in late Jan which seems like it will be the peak for some time now, and have basically been frustrated since. I know a couple of months is no time for many of you, but I would have preferred to have kept more cash on hand to play the volatility, as a couple of friends I have have done. One just made an easy $20k flipping SQ. I have read Bogleheads, I have read A Simple Path to Wealth, and I am reading the Millionaire next door. But as far as I am concerned, I am off to a horrible start. And I do not think things will end well in 2018, and have all this money invested in the hopes it is the right thing to do.

Now someone will gleefully post 'top is in' as a response to this, and maybe I deserve it. But I feel pretty disappointed and even a little angry about this. Ultimately its my own fault, I make my own decisions. I hope I am proven wrong.

I laughed out loud when I read your diagnosis of "horrible start," boo hoo poor rich person could have been even richer.  Check back in 30 years and see whether you can tell which little blips you missed or correctly guessed. 

The only effective way to time the market is change the year you were born.  If you can't do that, just keep investing.  Also, I hate to spoil the joke...
Spoiler: show
but the top is not really in

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2620 on: March 28, 2018, 08:55:56 AM »
Spoiler: show
but the top is not really in


oh my god, you did NOT just say that

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2621 on: March 28, 2018, 09:15:36 AM »
As a fairly new Mustachian, and recently buying into simple investing etc and not trying to time the market, I have to admit I am disappointed I went along with it as I have done. I threw in the rest of my investment money in late Jan which seems like it will be the peak for some time now, and have basically been frustrated since. I know a couple of months is no time for many of you, but I would have preferred to have kept more cash on hand to play the volatility, as a couple of friends I have have done. One just made an easy $20k flipping SQ. I have read Bogleheads, I have read A Simple Path to Wealth, and I am reading the Millionaire next door. But as far as I am concerned, I am off to a horrible start. And I do not think things will end well in 2018, and have all this money invested in the hopes it is the right thing to do.

Now someone will gleefully post 'top is in' as a response to this, and maybe I deserve it. But I feel pretty disappointed and even a little angry about this. Ultimately its my own fault, I make my own decisions. I hope I am proven wrong.

Stay the course.  I started investing in 2007.  Shit looked an awful lot more grim for an awful lot longer.

Also, starting your investing on a dip/crash is pretty much the best case scenario. Ending on a crash is the worst. So... you should be happy.

PathtoFIRE

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2622 on: March 28, 2018, 09:25:45 AM »
But I feel pretty disappointed and even a little angry about this.

We're talking about developing good habits here. The message is that good habits, maintained and nurtured, will produce good results. You are jumping the gun. Timing the market, playing volatility, flipping this and that...those are about becoming rich by getting rich, and they don't work for any but the luckiest of us. You don't lose weight by lopping off limbs, and you don't become financially independent by "getting rich", you do it by developing healthy savings habits and sticking to them. The easiest habits to follow are the simplest, and in the financial world there is almost nothing simpler than immediately saving a portion of every paycheck or flow of income into a one or three fund diversified portfolio.

alanB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2623 on: March 28, 2018, 09:53:37 AM »
Spoiler: show
but the top is not really in


oh my god, you did NOT just say that

I said it and I'll say it again!!
Spoiler: show
ha ha made you click ;P

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2624 on: March 28, 2018, 10:03:31 AM »
As a fairly new Mustachian, and recently buying into simple investing etc and not trying to time the market, I have to admit I am disappointed I went along with it as I have done. I threw in the rest of my investment money in late Jan which seems like it will be the peak for some time now, and have basically been frustrated since. I know a couple of months is no time for many of you, but I would have preferred to have kept more cash on hand to play the volatility, as a couple of friends I have have done. One just made an easy $20k flipping SQ. I have read Bogleheads, I have read A Simple Path to Wealth, and I am reading the Millionaire next door. But as far as I am concerned, I am off to a horrible start. And I do not think things will end well in 2018, and have all this money invested in the hopes it is the right thing to do.

Now someone will gleefully post 'top is in' as a response to this, and maybe I deserve it. But I feel pretty disappointed and even a little angry about this. Ultimately its my own fault, I make my own decisions. I hope I am proven wrong.

Stay the course.  I started investing in 2007.  Shit looked an awful lot more grim for an awful lot longer.

I've been invested through the 2000 dot-com bubble and in 2008 when the sky was falling. Think time horizon.

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2625 on: March 28, 2018, 10:43:34 AM »
As a fairly new Mustachian, and recently buying into simple investing etc and not trying to time the market, I have to admit I am disappointed I went along with it as I have done. I threw in the rest of my investment money in late Jan which seems like it will be the peak for some time now, and have basically been frustrated since. I know a couple of months is no time for many of you, but I would have preferred to have kept more cash on hand to play the volatility, as a couple of friends I have have done. One just made an easy $20k flipping SQ. I have read Bogleheads, I have read A Simple Path to Wealth, and I am reading the Millionaire next door. But as far as I am concerned, I am off to a horrible start. And I do not think things will end well in 2018, and have all this money invested in the hopes it is the right thing to do.

Now someone will gleefully post 'top is in' as a response to this, and maybe I deserve it. But I feel pretty disappointed and even a little angry about this. Ultimately its my own fault, I make my own decisions. I hope I am proven wrong.

This is entirely wrong-headed thinking.  You think you can beat the market by "playing with volatility".  You are wrong.  Your friends are wrong too.  They will tell you about their wins, but they won't say shit about their losses (generally speaking, I mean). 

No, if you want to crush your friends over the long term, you must think of dips as little blips that ultimately mean nothing.  Keep plowing your money in, every week/month/year/decade.  Here's what I mean. 

Look at the last 3 months, the timeline you're talking about, with my investments, it looks like a roller coaster.  Oh no!!!! (/snark)




However, if you zoom out a bit and track it back to 2015, when I first started doing Bogle/MMM style indexing, you can see that all the drama of the last 2 months is just a few tiny little squiggles at the top of the chart:

« Last Edit: March 28, 2018, 10:56:50 AM by tyort1 »

KTG

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2626 on: March 28, 2018, 11:07:16 AM »
Hi tyort1, I know the evidence is there that over time, indexing wins out, but coming from owning individual stocks and doing pretty good at it, its hard to be on cruise control. It does help to hear from those who have gone through the dotcom and Great Recession crashes, but you'll have to forgive me that I am still new in buying into this philosophy. I made out like a bandit in 2008 cause I was mostly in cash and its been hard to let that go.

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2627 on: March 28, 2018, 11:15:58 AM »
Hi tyort1, I know the evidence is there that over time, indexing wins out, but coming from owning individual stocks and doing pretty good at it, its hard to be on cruise control. It does help to hear from those who have gone through the dotcom and Great Recession crashes, but you'll have to forgive me that I am still new in buying into this philosophy. I made out like a bandit in 2008 cause I was mostly in cash and its been hard to let that go.

You got lucky, there is no way for you to consistently win and make out like a bandit with that strategy.  This forum is full of people with the same doubts that decided to go all cash in 2013, and 2014, etc.  They all look like idiots now.

I made out like a bandit one time when I went to the casino and put a bunch of money on red.  It worked out great for me that one time, so why is everyone advising against me playing roulette professionally?

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2628 on: March 28, 2018, 12:02:06 PM »
Hi tyort1, I know the evidence is there that over time, indexing wins out, but coming from owning individual stocks and doing pretty good at it, its hard to be on cruise control. It does help to hear from those who have gone through the dotcom and Great Recession crashes, but you'll have to forgive me that I am still new in buying into this philosophy. I made out like a bandit in 2008 cause I was mostly in cash and its been hard to let that go.

Well, you can't have it both ways.  Either you index, and commit to it, and ride the ups and downs like a Texas bull rider, or you try to "play" the market.  The fact is, over time, indexing wins.  As you see from my chart.  These "major upheavals" we're seeing right now are in reality just tiny little blips.  How is "timing" these little squiggles going to help?  It's irrelevant and tiny in the larger context.

PathtoFIRE

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2629 on: March 28, 2018, 02:01:07 PM »
Hi tyort1, I know the evidence is there that over time, indexing wins out, but coming from owning individual stocks and doing pretty good at it, its hard to be on cruise control. It does help to hear from those who have gone through the dotcom and Great Recession crashes, but you'll have to forgive me that I am still new in buying into this philosophy. I made out like a bandit in 2008 cause I was mostly in cash and its been hard to let that go.

Well, you can't have it both ways.  Either you index, and commit to it, and ride the ups and downs like a Texas bull rider, or you try to "play" the market.  The fact is, over time, indexing wins.  As you see from my chart.  These "major upheavals" we're seeing right now are in reality just tiny little blips.  How is "timing" these little squiggles going to help?  It's irrelevant and tiny in the larger context.

Make a little grimace, give it an aw shucks or dangnabit, and then forget about it. I did something similar with a portion of our cash out refinance in 2015, timed that money at the tippity top, and didn't break even on that purchase until over a year later in July 2016. It just looks like a slight pause now on the S&P 500 charts, but it hurt a little at the time.

KTG

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2630 on: March 28, 2018, 02:34:43 PM »
OKAY OKAY I am turning off CNBC and not watching the market for awhile.

Thank you.

rab-bit

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2631 on: March 28, 2018, 03:23:25 PM »
OKAY OKAY I am turning off CNBC and not watching the market for awhile.

IMO, turning off CNBC is always a good idea, no matter what the market is doing.

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2632 on: March 28, 2018, 04:02:26 PM »
OKAY OKAY I am turning off CNBC and not watching the market for awhile.

IMO, turning off CNBC is always a good idea, no matter what the market is doing.

Agreed.  In fact, I find that if the goal is happiness (and not just financial success), then the Low Information Diet is a must:

http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2013/10/01/the-low-information-diet/

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2633 on: March 28, 2018, 04:31:45 PM »
The market usually has really bad days on Fridays at the end of the month and more importantly the quarter.

Since the market is closed on Friday, tomorrow will be a very interesting day as companies close the books on Q1.

RIP Top

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2634 on: March 29, 2018, 08:45:11 AM »
The market usually has really bad days on Fridays at the end of the month and more importantly the quarter.

Since the market is closed on Friday, tomorrow will be a very interesting day as companies close the books on Q1.

RIP Top

So I should always sell on Thursday, buy on Monday morning?

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2635 on: March 29, 2018, 09:10:01 AM »
The market usually has really bad days on Fridays at the end of the month and more importantly the quarter.

Since the market is closed on Friday, tomorrow will be a very interesting day as companies close the books on Q1.

RIP Top

I think if there is one actual, useful point in this thread, it's that patterns in stock market data do not exist. At least, not any that you can exploit for profit.

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2636 on: March 29, 2018, 09:11:08 AM »
Wait, so I shouldn't have just sold all of my stock in preparation for the Friday drop?  I was assured that the top was in!!!

alanB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2637 on: March 29, 2018, 09:44:14 AM »
Wait, so I shouldn't have just sold all of my stock in preparation for the Friday drop?  I was assured that the top was in!!!
No matter, just wait for it to go up for three more quarters then jump back in, that is called "momentum investing"

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2638 on: March 29, 2018, 09:52:53 AM »
The market usually has really bad days on Fridays at the end of the month and more importantly the quarter.

Since the market is closed on Friday, tomorrow will be a very interesting day as companies close the books on Q1.

RIP Top

I think if there is one actual, useful point in this thread, it's that patterns in stock market data do not exist. At least, not any that you can exploit for profit.

It's much more productive to exploit for entertainment than for profit.  Case in point, this thread

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2639 on: March 29, 2018, 10:08:02 AM »
I think if there is one actual, useful point in this thread, it's that patterns in stock market data do not exist. At least, not any that you can exploit for profit.

It's much more productive to exploit for entertainment than for profit.  Case in point, this thread

This thread has topped at least three times, and yet still somehow manages to hang on, climbing ever higher.  It's the perfect investment, because even when the market crashes this thread always finds a way to rally.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2640 on: March 29, 2018, 10:14:37 AM »
Wait, so I shouldn't have just sold all of my stock in preparation for the Friday drop?  I was assured that the top was in!!!

Sell everything and buy back in lower on Monday morning.

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2641 on: March 29, 2018, 10:56:19 AM »
Wait, so I shouldn't have just sold all of my stock in preparation for the Friday drop?  I was assured that the top was in!!!
No matter, just wait for it to go up for three more quarters then jump back in, that is called "momentum investing"

I lol'd.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2642 on: March 29, 2018, 11:31:42 AM »
The market usually has really bad days on Fridays at the end of the month and more importantly the quarter.

Since the market is closed on Friday, tomorrow will be a very interesting day as companies close the books on Q1.

RIP Top

I think if there is one actual, useful point in this thread, it's that patterns in stock market data do not exist. At least, not any that you can exploit for profit.

I'd say it's a little more nuanced than that.  It's a social feedback loop.  Patterns do exist, but as soon as people start taking advantage of them that action in and of itself changes the patterns to something new.  It's like trying to jump in a half-deflated bouncy house. 

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2643 on: March 29, 2018, 12:18:52 PM »
So I should always sell on Thursday, buy on Monday morning?

You should only sell on days ending in the letter "y."


tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2644 on: March 29, 2018, 12:32:09 PM »
So I should always sell on Thursday, buy on Monday morning?

You should only drink on days ending in the letter "y."

Fixed that for you ;)

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2645 on: March 29, 2018, 01:32:35 PM »
I think if there is one actual, useful point in this thread, it's that patterns in stock market data do not exist. At least, not any that you can exploit for profit.

It's much more productive to exploit for entertainment than for profit.  Case in point, this thread

This thread has topped at least three times, and yet still somehow manages to hang on, climbing ever higher.  It's the perfect investment, because even when the market crashes this thread always finds a way to rally.

Thread Tripple-Top is in.  I like a portfolio of 75/25 personally.  75% Top is in/ 25% Anti-Mustachian Wall of Shame and Comedy.  Although, when you think about it, there is some clear overlap. 

marty998

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2646 on: March 29, 2018, 02:51:34 PM »
The market usually has really bad days on Fridays at the end of the month and more importantly the quarter.

Since the market is closed on Friday, tomorrow will be a very interesting day as companies close the books on Q1.

RIP Top

I think if there is one actual, useful point in this thread, it's that patterns in stock market data do not exist. At least, not any that you can exploit for profit.

I'd say it's a little more nuanced than that.  It's a social feedback loop.  Patterns do exist, but as soon as people start taking advantage of them that action in and of itself changes the patterns to something new.  It's like trying to jump in a half-deflated bouncy house.

Mmm you've also got fund managers trying to massage their performance figures as well so quite a bit of manipulation happens in share prices.

I've forgotten if this is also the case but at the end of quarter you've got exchange traded options expiring too which can introduce additional volatility.


OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2647 on: March 29, 2018, 03:00:48 PM »
Post #2662.  S&P at 2640.  Top is In!

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2648 on: March 29, 2018, 06:41:42 PM »
Post #2662.  S&P at 2640.  Top is In!

I knew I should've invested more in this thread and less in the market.

JAYSLOL

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  • Posts: 1095
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2649 on: March 29, 2018, 07:21:51 PM »
Post #2662.  S&P at 2640.  Top is In!

I knew I should've invested more in this thread and less in the market.

thorstach knew.  thorstach knew.