Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 3134470 times)

aboatguy

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 331
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3300 on: August 27, 2018, 10:14:46 AM »
Well the S&P500 is topping again today..:)
I think we might just see S&P 2900.

I guarantee we will see S&P 500 at 2900 or higher as I type it is at 2897.05 the question is when will it hit 2900.  2900 today, tomorrow, next week, next month, next decade after dropping to 1250..... 

The market always goes up... except when it doesn't !

« Last Edit: August 27, 2018, 10:20:08 AM by aboatguy »

Mr. Green

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4485
  • Age: 40
  • Location: Wilmington, NC
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3301 on: August 27, 2018, 10:24:47 AM »
Well the S&P500 is topping again today..:)
I think we might just see S&P 2900.

Will that be the top?
I doubt it. We'll be over within the week.

dougules

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2897
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3302 on: August 27, 2018, 10:26:31 AM »
Important question here

Does thorstach rhyme with mu-STACHE or THATCH-roofcottages?

Asking for a friend

So, in the countryside your "friend" burninates, "stache" and "thatch" don't rhyme? Because they do in my countryside.

I always pronounce it "stock". Then I try to figure out what a Thor Stock is. Then I wonder if he typoed it, and it should really be thorstache?

No, "Thorstaaagh." At the back of the throat.

dragoncar

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9918
  • Registered member
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3303 on: August 27, 2018, 10:53:50 AM »
META - make equities top again

Toad

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 250
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3304 on: August 27, 2018, 12:22:44 PM »
I consulted my stock expert, Fluffy McSnuggles.  He believes a bull trap is in play, I called bullshit on that, but he denied saying, "no bull" and then handed me a bear claw to eat.

JAYSLOL

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2131
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3305 on: August 27, 2018, 05:44:24 PM »
I consulted my stock expert, Fluffy McSnuggles.  He believes a bull trap is in play, I called bullshit on that, but he denied saying, "no bull" and then handed me a bear claw to eat.
Mmm, I only wish I had a stock expert that hooked me up with bear claws. 

techwiz

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3716
  • Location: Ontario
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3306 on: August 27, 2018, 07:47:26 PM »
I consulted my stock expert, Fluffy McSnuggles.  He believes a bull trap is in play, I called bullshit on that, but he denied saying, "no bull" and then handed me a bear claw to eat.
Mmm, I only wish I had a stock expert that hooked me up with bear claws. 
I am no stock expert but I could hook you up with bear claws.


dragoncar

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9918
  • Registered member
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3307 on: August 27, 2018, 08:29:57 PM »
I consulted my stock expert, Fluffy McSnuggles.  He believes a bull trap is in play, I called bullshit on that, but he denied saying, "no bull" and then handed me a bear claw to eat.
Mmm, I only wish I had a stock expert that hooked me up with bear claws. 
I am no stock expert but I could hook you up with bear claws.




BicycleB

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5258
  • Location: Coolest Neighborhood on Earth, They Say
  • Older than the internet, but not wiser... yet
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3308 on: August 27, 2018, 09:37:26 PM »
Hmm, the human hand is very fast when dodging the bear claw.

Faster than any foolish buy and hold investors will be in avoiding the upcoming bear market! Thorstach has spoken - the top is in!

DavidAnnArbor

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2266
  • Age: 58
  • Location: Ann Arbor, Michigan
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3309 on: August 28, 2018, 07:17:38 AM »
wow that's crazy to be feeding a bear like that.

Mr. Green

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4485
  • Age: 40
  • Location: Wilmington, NC
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3310 on: August 28, 2018, 07:36:29 AM »
Well the S&P500 is topping again today..:)
I think we might just see S&P 2900.

Will that be the top?
I doubt it. We'll be over within the week.
I win! :P

appleshampooid

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 303
  • Relentless Snacker
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3311 on: August 28, 2018, 07:40:23 AM »
Just wanted to pop in and say...

RWD

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6499
  • Location: Arizona
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3312 on: August 28, 2018, 07:51:49 AM »
2900!

OurTown

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1368
  • Age: 54
  • Location: Tennessee
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3313 on: August 28, 2018, 08:45:44 AM »
2900!

bottles of beer on the wall?

RWD

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6499
  • Location: Arizona
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3314 on: August 28, 2018, 08:47:51 AM »
2900!

bottles of beer on the wall?

Yeah. Looks like a couple have been taken down since I last checked. They've been passed around and now there's 2,898 bottles of beer on the wall.

OurTown

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1368
  • Age: 54
  • Location: Tennessee
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3315 on: August 28, 2018, 08:48:44 AM »
2900!

bottles of beer on the wall?

Yeah. Looks like a couple have been taken down since I last checked. They've been passed around and now there's 2,898 bottles of beer on the wall.

Well that's how the song goes after all.

techwiz

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3716
  • Location: Ontario
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3316 on: August 28, 2018, 09:48:37 AM »
I am guessing this is the type of beer on the wall.



... Big top is in

slow hand slow plan

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 125
  • Location: Colorado ish
  • Living the dream
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3317 on: August 28, 2018, 10:55:42 AM »
if anyone is still keeping track since Thorstache's initial prediction on 04/11/2017:

  • S&P 500   up 23% (not including dividends)

    VTSMX (total stock market) is up 24% (not including dividends)

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 17472
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3318 on: August 28, 2018, 05:20:42 PM »
I'm sorry, I stopped paying attention to this thread and I'm too lazy to read through the last 30 pages...

... is the top in yet?

aboatguy

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 331
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3319 on: August 28, 2018, 06:47:47 PM »
2903 top was in!  Waiting for the new top

aspiringnomad

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 956
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3320 on: August 28, 2018, 10:33:01 PM »
wow that's crazy to be feeding a bear like that.

According to thorstach we're all crazy to be feeding this bull.

dragoncar

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9918
  • Registered member
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3321 on: August 28, 2018, 10:37:44 PM »
wow that's crazy to be feeding a bear like that.

According to thorstach we're all crazy to be feeding this bull.


Mr. Green

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4485
  • Age: 40
  • Location: Wilmington, NC
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3322 on: August 29, 2018, 07:01:12 AM »
if anyone is still keeping track since Thorstache's initial prediction on 04/11/2017:

  • S&P 500   up 23% (not including dividends)

    VTSMX (total stock market) is up 24% (not including dividends)
So we could have a dip into bear market territory nad you'd still have more money than if you'd have gone to cash on Thorstache's prediction. Ouch.

Exflyboy

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8374
  • Age: 62
  • Location: Corvallis, Oregon
  • Expat Brit living in the New World..:)
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3323 on: August 29, 2018, 09:43:46 AM »
Look at that market go!.. Almost 2913 on the S&P500 as of this post..:)

solon

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2359
  • Age: 1823
  • Location: OH
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3324 on: August 29, 2018, 10:09:56 AM »
The exuberance is up to 11. I'm getting nervous. Not sure I like making all this money.

Retire-Canada

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8659
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3325 on: August 29, 2018, 10:15:34 AM »
The exuberance is up to 11. I'm getting nervous. Not sure I like making all this money.

No problem. I'll PM you my paypal address. Just send it to me. I can take the stress for both of us. ;)

Exflyboy

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8374
  • Age: 62
  • Location: Corvallis, Oregon
  • Expat Brit living in the New World..:)
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3326 on: August 29, 2018, 10:34:07 AM »
I rebalanced my portfolio back to my desired 80:20 a few days ago.. If exuberance gets to about 13 I might rebalance to 70:30 in preparation for the big drop.. then go to 90:10..:)

Market timing, who me?

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8433
  • Age: 47
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3327 on: August 29, 2018, 10:55:54 AM »
I rebalanced my portfolio back to my desired 80:20 a few days ago.. If exuberance gets to about 13 I might rebalance to 70:30 in preparation for the big drop.. then go to 90:10..:)

Market timing, who me?

I love how this problem is self correcting.  Anybody who followed this advice back in 2013 missed out on doubling their money.  It's like the market basically rewards everyone who can ride it out, and penalizes the people who freak out and bail to a more conservative allocation. 

How rich do you want to be?  When you finally decide that you're rich enough, that's the time to flee the market.  For everyone else, consider staying the course.

dragoncar

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9918
  • Registered member
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3328 on: August 29, 2018, 11:06:47 AM »
The exuberance is up to 11. I'm getting nervous. Not sure I like making all this money.

When the market is at 10, where do you go from there?  This market goes to 11.  It’s one toppier.

Davids

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 977
  • Location: Somewhere in the USA.
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3329 on: August 29, 2018, 11:31:46 AM »
Time to start prediction for when S&P hits 3000 for first time. I'll go with October 10 2018.

boarder42

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9332
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3330 on: August 29, 2018, 11:40:56 AM »
Time to start prediction for when S&P hits 3000 for first time. I'll go with October 10 2018.

Oct 2020

DS

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 673
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3331 on: August 29, 2018, 11:54:04 AM »
Time to start prediction for when S&P hits 3000 for first time. I'll go with October 10 2018.

Never. Unfortunately, top is in.

dragoncar

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9918
  • Registered member
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3332 on: August 29, 2018, 11:59:21 AM »
Time to start prediction for when S&P hits 3000 for first time. I'll go with October 10 2018.

Oct 2020

Oct 3000

Laserjet3051

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 904
  • Age: 95
  • Location: Upper Peninsula (MI)
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3333 on: August 29, 2018, 12:43:56 PM »
The exuberance is up to 11. I'm getting nervous. Not sure I like making all this money.

yes, but it is critical to distinguish whether this exuberance is rational or irrational. I can't tell the difference but with the small business confidence index at all time highs, there may be fundamental support for this market enthusiasm.

Exflyboy

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8374
  • Age: 62
  • Location: Corvallis, Oregon
  • Expat Brit living in the New World..:)
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3334 on: August 29, 2018, 12:52:46 PM »
I rebalanced my portfolio back to my desired 80:20 a few days ago.. If exuberance gets to about 13 I might rebalance to 70:30 in preparation for the big drop.. then go to 90:10..:)

Market timing, who me?

I love how this problem is self correcting.  Anybody who followed this advice back in 2013 missed out on doubling their money.  It's like the market basically rewards everyone who can ride it out, and penalizes the people who freak out and bail to a more conservative allocation. 

How rich do you want to be?  When you finally decide that you're rich enough, that's the time to flee the market.  For everyone else, consider staying the course.

Well I am certainly rich enough but inflation is a creeping cancer so I would never flee the market completely.. A 50:50 allocation would be perfectly adequate though..

Now if I had $10M then I would fly business class everywhere.. seems like a worthy goal..:)

frugledoc

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 743
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3335 on: August 29, 2018, 01:25:23 PM »
Time to start prediction for when S&P hits 3000 for first time. I'll go with October 10 2018.

Dude that’s not how you play this game. Top us in.

3000 there will be not

BicycleB

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5258
  • Location: Coolest Neighborhood on Earth, They Say
  • Older than the internet, but not wiser... yet
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3336 on: August 29, 2018, 02:55:50 PM »
Time to start prediction for when S&P hits 3000 for first time. I'll go with October 10 2018.

After Thanksgiving and before Christmas. However, that will be the last top.

aspiringnomad

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 956
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3337 on: August 29, 2018, 04:05:46 PM »
Time to start prediction for when S&P hits 3000 for first time. I'll go with October 10 2018.

Dude that’s not how you play this game. Top us in.

3000 there will be not

Wait, are you saying that the original post was a typo and thorstach meant to say "Top us in"? What does it mean? Buy, sell, hold? Load up on cryptokitties? Someone please interpret the mistyped words of the great thorstach for me!

aboatguy

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 331
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3338 on: August 29, 2018, 07:34:18 PM »
2914 tippety toppety toppityest top is not in yet!

2Birds1Stone

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7890
  • Age: 1
  • Location: Earth
  • K Thnx Bye
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3339 on: August 29, 2018, 07:53:56 PM »
Is this the bottom of the top?

gerardc

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 767
  • Age: 40
  • Location: SF bay area
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3340 on: August 29, 2018, 08:07:35 PM »
The exuberance is up to 11. I'm getting nervous. Not sure I like making all this money.

what is that exuberance measure called?

maizefolk

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7396
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3341 on: August 29, 2018, 08:17:44 PM »
Is this the bottom of the top?

It is not the bottom. It is not even the bottom of the top. But it is, perhaps, the top of the bottom.

gerardc

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 767
  • Age: 40
  • Location: SF bay area
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3342 on: August 29, 2018, 08:25:31 PM »
The exuberance is up to 11. I'm getting nervous. Not sure I like making all this money.

what is that exuberance measure called?

oh, perhaps that was sarcasm like the rest of this thread? can't find anything XD

TempusFugit

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 628
  • Location: In my own head, usually
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3343 on: August 29, 2018, 08:31:09 PM »
Im beginning to suspect that none of you people know what youre talking about. 

Clearly top was in quite some time ago and now we are all just trappd in some sort of simulation.   

ILikeDividends

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 459
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3344 on: August 29, 2018, 09:04:06 PM »

what is that exuberance measure called?

The verbose definition is the endogenous opioid neuropeptides and peptide hormones; most commonly referred to as endorphins.  The exuberance measure is the ratio of endorphins to blood volume.  Endorphins are secreted by the central nervous system and by the pituitary gland.  The pituitary gland is, not surprisingly, located near the topmost part of your body.

That's just a really long way of saying that the top, as measured by exuberance, exists mostly just in your head.
« Last Edit: August 29, 2018, 09:22:57 PM by ILikeDividends »

JAYSLOL

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2131
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3345 on: August 29, 2018, 10:34:51 PM »
Im beginning to suspect that none of you people know what youre talking about. 

Clearly top was in quite some time ago and now we are all just trappd in some sort of simulation.

Top relief

dragoncar

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9918
  • Registered member
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3346 on: August 29, 2018, 10:54:13 PM »
Im beginning to suspect that none of you people know what youre talking about. 

Clearly top was in quite some time ago and now we are all just trappd in some sort of simulation.

What’s above us?  Reality?  Or another simulation, making us a simulation within a simulation?  How many levels are above us?  10?  A thousand?

Or are we at the TOP?

techwiz

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3716
  • Location: Ontario
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3347 on: August 30, 2018, 06:38:42 AM »
Quote
Clearly top was in quite some time ago and now we are all just trappd in some sort of simulation.





Cache_Stash

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 314
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3348 on: August 30, 2018, 07:07:07 AM »
I'm now up $240K since the top was in. SMH

Retire-Canada

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8659
Re: Top is in
« Reply #3349 on: August 30, 2018, 07:45:50 AM »

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!