Top is in

[sol]

I'm surprised the market is reacting so strongly to political news.  I suspect that the recent drop is mostly due to politics, not economics, like people are upset about the President being indicted because he's a corrupt con artist and now democrats will not be entirely shut out of government anymore, about national security because we're letting Russia take over Syria, about the inability of congress to pass a budget which sends paychecks to millions of Americans, and about an escalating trade war with China. 

They don't seem to take much notice of what the fed does (raising rates because the fundamentals of economic growth look strong), or that corporate earnings are off the charts thanks to the corporate tax cuts.  US companies are pouring billions into stock buy backs because they have so much surplus cash right now.  Consumer spending for the holidays is already blowing away every retail season in history.  Consumer confidence is up, housing prices have finally stabilized, and gas prices are down.  All of this is great news for the economy!  We should be ringing church bells, not wringing our hands!

But as we all know, the stock market is not a reflection of the strength of the economy, it's a reflection of rich people's perception of the economy.   Right now, I think most of those rich people are being willfully blind to all of the positive economic news.  I'm not saying they won't push prices lower, I'm saying that if they do I will be one of the happy buyers.  The future is still bright today, and a bear market just means quality goods are available at discount prices.  Score!  I'm buying. 

Thorstach and all of his followers can go right ahead and hold cash, I think they're being stupid.  You have to know how to separate dire cable news headlines from actual economic data, and right now those two things are flashing opposite signals.  I'm choosing to believe in the data.

[maizefolk]

They don't seem to take much notice of what the fed does (raising rates because the fundamentals of economic growth look strong)

Normally I agree that trying to attribute market moves to news is just handwaving, but specifically yesterday's started exactly when the fed announced they were raising rates (market was generally flat yesterday before and after that news), so I'm reasonably confident there was causality in this particular ~2% drop.

Hope you're doing well, sol. I know you've have plenty of margin in your plan, but market drops in the months FIRE aren't that much fun.

[Threshkin]

I'm surprised the market is reacting so strongly to political news.  I suspect that the recent drop is mostly due to politics, not economics, like people are upset about the President being indicted because he's a corrupt con artist and now democrats will not be entirely shut out of government anymore, about national security because we're letting Russia take over Syria, about the inability of congress to pass a budget which sends paychecks to millions of Americans, and about an escalating trade war with China. 

They don't seem to take much notice of what the fed does (raising rates because the fundamentals of economic growth look strong), or that corporate earnings are off the charts thanks to the corporate tax cuts.  US companies are pouring billions into stock buy backs because they have so much surplus cash right now.  Consumer spending for the holidays is already blowing away every retail season in history.  Consumer confidence is up, housing prices have finally stabilized, and gas prices are down.  All of this is great news for the economy!  We should be ringing church bells, not wringing our hands!

But as we all know, the stock market is not a reflection of the strength of the economy, it's a reflection of rich people's perception of the economy.   Right now, I think most of those rich people are being willfully blind to all of the positive economic news.  I'm not saying they won't push prices lower, I'm saying that if they do I will be one of the happy buyers.  The future is still bright today, and a bear market just means quality goods are available at discount prices.  Score!  I'm buying. 

Thorstach and all of his followers can go right ahead and hold cash, I think they're being stupid.  You have to know how to separate dire cable news headlines from actual economic data, and right now those two things are flashing opposite signals.  I'm choosing to believe in the data.

Sol, I agree with you on most of this but it does seem that the market is reacting to the Fed raising rates.  Big drops when they announce or when rumors of rate increases surface.

Otherwise, you are spot on.  The economy is strong and the Fed needs to raise rates to give themselves some wiggle room for the next down cycle.  On the other hand, weaknesses in housing are showing in increasing inventory and longer DOM.  I am also watching the shippers because they can be a leading indicator.  FedEx had a bad quarter but they are just one data point and are more consumer than manufacturer.

Politics do seem to be driving the market currently.  We are deep in an environment of outrage and extreme positions, on both sides of the spectrum. 

Perhaps we should take a lesson from and earlier period of deep political turmoil, 1967.

Come on people now
Smile on your brother
Everybody get together
Try to love one another
Right now

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_inXx-J3nU

[sol]

but specifically yesterday's started exactly when the fed announced they were raising rates (market was generally flat yesterday before and after that news), so I'm reasonably confident there was causality in this particular ~2% drop.

I agree with you and threshkin, there is absolutely a connection.  The market always wiggles a little bit when the fed does something.

But in this case, people are reacting negatively to good news.  The fed raised rates because the economy is thriving.  They reacted by selling stocks.  The usual narrative is that rising interest rates will increase borrowing costs, which will depress loose spending patterns, which will eventually slow the economy, but in today's environment that argument doesn't make a lot of sense.  Falling oil prices are putting as much free cash back into consumer hands as rising rates will take out of them.  The fed raises rates in order to try to pump the brakes on a white-hot economy, and yet for some reason people see the fed say "yea, the economy is just on fire!" and they immediately start planning for a recession.  We're fickle creatures.

Hope you're doing well, sol. I know you've have plenty of margin in your plan, but market drops in the months FIRE aren't that much fun.

I'm not worried, but thanks for checking in.  I was mentally prepared to see an immediate 10% drop on the day after I retired without even blinking, and we're now at right about that spot so I consider myself back to even.  The past few years have been so crazy that people tend to forget you're only looking for a few percent per year above inflation from your investments, so I feel like a +22% year like 2017 means you've banked several years of profits all at once.  Those profits are either making up for previous bad years, or in the case of 2017 when the past decade has also been great, they might mean you're riding atop a temporary blip.  If we see plus or minus two percent for the next three years in a row, I figure I'm still well ahead of the game.  I'm grinding out the long term averages here, so market wiggles don't bother me much.

[FIRE47]

but specifically yesterday's started exactly when the fed announced they were raising rates (market was generally flat yesterday before and after that news), so I'm reasonably confident there was causality in this particular ~2% drop.

I agree with you and threshkin, there is absolutely a connection.  The market always wiggles a little bit when the fed does something.

But in this case, people are reacting negatively to good news.  The fed raised rates because the economy is thriving.  They reacted by selling stocks.  The usual narrative is that rising interest rates will increase borrowing costs, which will depress loose spending patterns, which will eventually slow the economy, but in today's environment that argument doesn't make a lot of sense.  Falling oil prices are putting as much free cash back into consumer hands as rising rates will take out of them.  The fed raises rates in order to try to pump the brakes on a white-hot economy, and yet for some reason people see the fed say "yea, the economy is just on fire!" and they immediately start planning for a recession.  We're fickle creatures.

Hope you're doing well, sol. I know you've have plenty of margin in your plan, but market drops in the months FIRE aren't that much fun.

I'm not worried, but thanks for checking in.  I was mentally prepared to see an immediate 10% drop on the day after I retired without even blinking, and we're now at right about that spot so I consider myself back to even.  The past few years have been so crazy that people tend to forget you're only looking for a few percent per year above inflation from your investments, so I feel like a +22% year like 2017 means you've banked several years of profits all at once.  Those profits are either making up for previous bad years, or in the case of 2017 when the past decade has also been great, they might mean you're riding atop a temporary blip.  If we see plus or minus two percent for the next three years in a row, I figure I'm still well ahead of the game.  I'm grinding out the long term averages here, so market wiggles don't bother me much.

Did you just recently retire?

[sol]

Did you just recently retire?

August 28th.  My last paycheck hit within days of the all-time market peak for the SP500 in mid-September.

Do I win a prize?

[mjr]

Beat me by 15 days.  3rd August here.

[markbike528CBX]

Re: Oil  prices are down,  upthread Sol comment about ^fedrates ~= down oil

Crude Oil & Natural Gas
Index    Units    Price    Change    %Change    Contract    Time (EST)    2 Day
CL1:COM WTI Crude Oil (Nymex)
   USD/bbl.    46.21    -1.96    -4.07%    Feb 2019    4:50 PM    
CO1:COM  Brent Crude (ICE)
   USD/bbl.    54.76    -2.48    -4.33%    Feb 2019    4:49 PM    


Gas prices are down, OK, but 8bucks difference but how is this not arbitraged away?

[FIRE47]

Did you just recently retire?

August 28th.  My last paycheck hit within days of the all-time market peak for the SP500 in mid-September.

Do I win a prize?

I would be sweating that’s for sure as much as I will have a great plan in place a swift 15% +|- dip when I pull the trigger would be very unnsettling.

That being said what else was there to do if you were ready you we’re ready.

[sol]

I would be sweating that’s for sure as much as I will have a great plan in place a swift 15% +|- dip when I pull the trigger would be very unnsettling.\

Nah, the 4% rule accounts for all of the cases in which a major downturn happens immediately after you retire.  It's a normal part of the market cycle.  People who retired the day before black Friday and black Tuesday came out just fine.  People who retired the day before the dotcom bust came out just fine (thus far).  It's not usually stock market recessions that cause portfolio failures, it's catastrophically bad economic conditions that then lead to stock market recessions.  Our economy is strong today, so I'm not worried.

[thorstach]

https://northmantrader.com/2018/12/20/perspective/

[Financial.Velociraptor]

Re: Oil  prices are down,  upthread Sol comment about ^fedrates ~= down oil

Crude Oil & Natural Gas
Index    Units    Price    Change    %Change    Contract    Time (EST)    2 Day
CL1:COM WTI Crude Oil (Nymex)
   USD/bbl.    46.21    -1.96    -4.07%    Feb 2019    4:50 PM    
CO1:COM  Brent Crude (ICE)
   USD/bbl.    54.76    -2.48    -4.33%    Feb 2019    4:49 PM    


Gas prices are down, OK, but 8bucks difference but how is this not arbitraged away?

This price dislocation has existed for years.  I was puzzled at first as well.  Have studied the problem and it turns out there are major transportation bottlenecks that prevent the Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) ships from loading at US ports to export crude.  The crude exports from the US are being done on smaller and less efficient ships.  It will be a few more years yet until enough ports increase their depth and capacity to allow widescale VLCC loading in Houston and Corpus Christi and maybe some other places to arbitrage the dislocation away.  There will be maybe 4 ultra deepwater ports in the US max as there just isn't enough global demand for more to be profitable for municipalities to undertake construction costs.

An even bigger dislocation exists for US versus international natural gas.  Building an export facility is a multi-year and multi-billion dollar project with a long payoff horizon.  It is unlikely the US will ever have enough LNG export capacity to arb that away.

[effigy98]

Most of the moves lower are most likely Artificial Intelligence algorithms reacting to negative news articles written by Artificial Intelligence. Something like 80% of all trades have been from automated computer systems so... is this decline mostly artificial? or does the remaining news written by humans get amplified by the bots that write news off of their news...

[maizefolk]

Part of the reason ports for the most efficient oil tankers don't exist is that until 2016 the USA hadn't allowed export of crude oil (except to Canada) since the oil crisis in the 1970s.

[DreamFIRE]

Did you just recently retire?

August 28th.  My last paycheck hit within days of the all-time market peak for the SP500 in mid-September.

Do I win a prize?

I would be sweating that’s for sure as much as I will have a great plan in place a swift 15% +|- dip when I pull the trigger would be very unnsettling.

Yeah, you have to feel bad for the guy seeing his stash start to vaporize right after FIREing.  I'm rooting for him to pull through, though.

[maizefolk]

Did you just recently retire?

August 28th.  My last paycheck hit within days of the all-time market peak for the SP500 in mid-September.

Do I win a prize?

I would be sweating that’s for sure as much as I will have a great plan in place a swift 15% +|- dip when I pull the trigger would be very unnsettling.

Yeah, you have to feel bad for the guy seeing his stash start to vaporize right after FIREing.  I'm rooting for him to pull through, though.

Oh I have every confidence sol will be fine financially. I agree with his reasoning posted above.

I just know that if I were in the same situation I probably would be trying not to think about the stock market for a few months/years. Sounds like he's more resilient to this kind of stuff than I am though.

[markbike528CBX]

Re: Oil  prices are down,  upthread Sol comment about ^fedrates ~= down oil

Crude Oil & Natural Gas
Index    Units    Price    Change    %Change    Contract    Time (EST)    2 Day
CL1:COM WTI Crude Oil (Nymex)
   USD/bbl.    46.21    -1.96    -4.07%    Feb 2019    4:50 PM    
CO1:COM  Brent Crude (ICE)
   USD/bbl.    54.76    -2.48    -4.33%    Feb 2019    4:49 PM    


Gas prices are down, OK, but 8bucks difference but how is this not arbitraged away?

This price dislocation has existed for years.  I was puzzled at first as well.  Have studied the problem and it turns out there are major transportation bottlenecks that prevent the Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) ships from loading at US ports to export crude.  The crude exports from the US are being done on smaller and less efficient ships.  It will be a few more years yet until enough ports increase their depth and capacity to allow widescale VLCC loading in Houston and Corpus Christi and maybe some other places to arbitrage the dislocation away.  There will be maybe 4 ultra deepwater ports in the US max as there just isn't enough global demand for more to be profitable for municipalities to undertake construction costs.

An even bigger dislocation exists for US versus international natural gas.  Building an export facility is a multi-year and multi-billion dollar project with a long payoff horizon.  It is unlikely the US will ever have enough LNG export capacity to arb that away.

Makes sense.  Thanks Financial.Velociraptor!

[UndergroundDaytimeDad]

Anyone have a link to the wonderful chart of total market highs since 1900 with the awesome "top is in!", "Oh this is it now!" labels and annotations?  It is somewhere in this hodgepodge and I was hoping to show it to a student I mentor.  Much obliged. 

[ysette9]

https://northmantrader.com/2018/12/20/perspective/

All those squiggles and colorful lines were like me trying to draw something in Paint. Is this for real? It felt like a parody of stock market tea leaf reading by the end.

[dragoncar]

Did you just recently retire?

August 28th.  My last paycheck hit within days of the all-time market peak for the SP500 in mid-September.

Do I win a prize?

Your prize is: you get to retire

[Maenad]

Are we going to miss that thorstach popped in today? 

Who cares? (Not an insult to you, MissNancyPryor, but to Thorstach.)

[OurTown]

I think he (she) popped in too soon after the last appearance.  The comedy is better when he waits about 6 weeks.

[maizefolk]

Stock market forming a clear "Jaws: The Revenge" pattern today.

[35andFI]

Stock market forming a clear "Jaws: The Revenge" pattern today.

I love it! Absolutely love on how you guys rip on the fear mongering news headlines.

[dragoncar]

I think he (she) popped in too soon after the last appearance.  The comedy is better when he waits about 6 weeks.

Thorstach is getting more desperate.  Classic pump n dump. 

[thorstach]

http://isthisthebottom.com/

[dougules]

Our Great Leader and Prophet has returned to bring us tidings of great woe again.  Merry Christmas all.  You're going to die in poverty. 

[Nicholas Carter]

I'm surprised the market is reacting so strongly to political news.  ...

They don't seem to take much notice of what the fed does (raising rates because the fundamentals of economic growth look strong), ...  All of this is great news for the economy!  We should be ringing church bells, not wringing our hands!

Interesting alternative take: Part of the stockmarket's extremely long and bountiful rise is that Fed policy has diminished other asset classes' rate of return to the point where people adjusted their asset allocation plans to be much more stock heavy even outside of fast accumulation strategies.
What the Fed is displaying now is a move toward more asset-neutral policy, so people are re-balancing their AA's. If this theory is true, financial reporting on Q2 should show most of that money coming out of the stock market going back into some other asset class.

[thorstach]

Original top is in.

[Exflyboy]

I think the top might be in.. for 2018..:)

[dougules]

I'm surprised the market is reacting so strongly to political news.  ...

They don't seem to take much notice of what the fed does (raising rates because the fundamentals of economic growth look strong), ...  All of this is great news for the economy!  We should be ringing church bells, not wringing our hands!

Interesting alternative take: Part of the stockmarket's extremely long and bountiful rise is that Fed policy has diminished other asset classes' rate of return to the point where people adjusted their asset allocation plans to be much more stock heavy even outside of fast accumulation strategies.
What the Fed is displaying now is a move toward more asset-neutral policy, so people are re-balancing their AA's. If this theory is true, financial reporting on Q2 should show most of that money coming out of the stock market going back into some other asset class.

Treasury yields went down today, too, which suggests that money is flowing in. 

I'd like to think that this big drop is the market finally realizing that higher interest rates will eventually suck money out of stocks.  A big drop in the market due to a rise in interest rates due to a booming economy is the ideal scenario for those of us who will still be working for a few years. 

[SwordGuy]

Looks like the S&P 500 is down almost 10% since the end of last year!!!

I used to have stocks worth a big pile of money and now I have stocks …   worth a big pile of money.  :)

Oh, never mind.   Carry on...

(Edited to clarify 'since the end of last year')

[Cabaka]

Looks like the S&P 500 is down almost 10%!!!

I used to have stocks worth a big pile of money and now I have stocks …   worth a big pile of money.  :)

Oh, never mind.   Carry on...

s+p ATH was 2940 couple of months ago, now 2414; that's 18%; no; that's not serious.

but don't mind me, i'm just some stupid moving average "market timer"

[sol]

I used to have stocks worth a big pile of money and now I have stocks …   worth a big pile of money.  :)

Right.  I'm retired because I'm rich.  This past week my investment accounts have seen some turmoil, but the benefit of being rich is that you don't really care anymore.  I'm still rich.  They go up, they go down, I'm still rich.  I literally have years and years of my total spending saved up, so I don't really care what the market does right now.

I care about what the market does over the next 20 years, though.  That's when rich people make their money, with long term averages.  Today's wiggles, like all of the previous wiggles, are just noise. 

[SwordGuy]

Looks like the S&P 500 is down almost 10%!!!

I used to have stocks worth a big pile of money and now I have stocks …   worth a big pile of money.  :)

Oh, never mind.   Carry on...

s+p ATH was 2940 couple of months ago, now 2414; that's 18%; no; that's not serious.

but don't mind me, i'm just some stupid moving average "market timer"

Sorry, meant to say "down almost 10% since the end of last year."   

[Exflyboy]

I used to have stocks worth a big pile of money and now I have stocks …   worth a big pile of money.  :)

Right.  I'm retired because I'm rich.  This past week my investment accounts have seen some turmoil, but the benefit of being rich is that you don't really care anymore.  I'm still rich.  They go up, they go down, I'm still rich.  I literally have years and years of my total spending saved up, so I don't really care what the market does right now.

I care about what the market does over the next 20 years, though.  That's when rich people make their money, with long term averages.  Today's wiggles, like all of the previous wiggles, are just noise.

Haha.. I was about to say I've "lost" nearly $300k since October!...:)

[clifp]

Did you just recently retire?

August 28th.  My last paycheck hit within days of the all-time market peak for the SP500 in mid-September.

Do I win a prize?

Sadly this isn't that unusual.  My last paycheck was Jan 17. 2000.  The NASDAQ where most of my money was was at 4258, 2 months later it hit high of 5132. The NASDAQ then proceed to drop more than 75% over the next 30 months to 1139.  The NASDAQ high remain for 15 years before finally being exceeded back in March of 2015. 

I survive, you'll be ok, but hopefully your ride will be less interesting.

[PhilB]

I used to have stocks worth a big pile of money and now I have stocks …   worth a big pile of money.  :)

Right.  I'm retired because I'm rich.  This past week my investment accounts have seen some turmoil, but the benefit of being rich is that you don't really care anymore.  I'm still rich.  They go up, they go down, I'm still rich.  I literally have years and years of my total spending saved up, so I don't really care what the market does right now.

I care about what the market does over the next 20 years, though.  That's when rich people make their money, with long term averages.  Today's wiggles, like all of the previous wiggles, are just noise.

Haha.. I was about to say I've "lost" nearly $300k since October!...:)

As another recent FIREee (Oct 2018) I'm with Sol on this one.  A year ago my stash was 1.6 years' budgeted spending above where I predicted, now it's 0.6 years below.  Really not worth worrying about a bit of volatility.  It is, however, very comforting to hear Sol say so :@)

[Monocle Money Mouth]

Alright everyone. It's time to practice those knife catching skills :)

Kidding aside. I'm hoping the lower index values hold for a couple of more weeks. I have a 401(k) contribution going in on Friday and I will make my Roth contribution and throw some more at my taxable account on the second.

[Rural]

Alright everyone. It's time to practice those knife catching skills :)

Kidding aside. I'm hoping the lower index values hold for a couple of more weeks. I have a 401(k) contribution going in on Friday and I will make my Roth contribution and throw some more at my taxable account on the second.

That's what I've been saying - let it hold until the next retirement contributions clear. I also need to roll over my annual lump of HSA cash into investments (goes to a different administrator than the one my employer will do direct deposit into, so I do it annually).

[JAYSLOL]

Oh yeah, the GOAT MOAT sale continues, happy GOAT-Boxing Day everyone

[EscapeVelocity2020]

At the close of the market today, 600k will transfer from mostly aggressive funds to a money market fund for me.  I did pretty well in the 2008-9 crash (in hindsight, at one point, it looked like I'd gotten back in too early).  Just a fun experiment with, what I'm now convinced is very little downside.  The market needs to take a breather from this breathless sprint into ginormous headwinds...  but it'll be hard to know what to do even if the market corrects 20%!  Not really worried, I'm way ahead of schedule on retirement funds, so I can sit it out for a while either way, just more worried than optimistic at this point as the November mid-terms start to ramp up.  Good luck everyone!  Knowing when to invest, for me, is harder than knowing when to sell.

So, is this going to become the 'Bottom is in' thread?  I need to come up with a plan to put this 600k back in to the market.  I'm expecting a bounce after Christmas and then another leg down, then I'll put in my first 100k.  Need to start to formulate a strategy on what I want to buy and how fast I want to get back in.

[Steeze]

Going to ramp up the 401k myself. Wasn’t planning on front loading this year, but it is looking better and better by the day.

[BicycleB]

At the close of the market today, 600k will transfer from mostly aggressive funds to a money market fund for me.  I did pretty well in the 2008-9 crash (in hindsight, at one point, it looked like I'd gotten back in too early).  Just a fun experiment with, what I'm now convinced is very little downside.  The market needs to take a breather from this breathless sprint into ginormous headwinds...  but it'll be hard to know what to do even if the market corrects 20%!  Not really worried, I'm way ahead of schedule on retirement funds, so I can sit it out for a while either way, just more worried than optimistic at this point as the November mid-terms start to ramp up.  Good luck everyone!  Knowing when to invest, for me, is harder than knowing when to sell.

So, is this going to become the 'Bottom is in' thread?  I need to come up with a plan to put this 600k back in to the market.  I'm expecting a bounce after Christmas and then another leg down, then I'll put in my first 100k.  Need to start to formulate a strategy on what I want to buy and how fast I want to get back in.

Interesting! Amidst our jokes against the difficulty of market timing, an example of what could be $600k worth of excellent market market timing! Well, it's data.

@EscapeVelocity2020, I always notice your posts because they seem very intelligent. Curious to hear what you decide about getting in again. Any specifics about % asset allocation and your thought process on what to do about it will be very welcome.

Merry Christmas, all, and to all a good night...

[dragoncar]

At the close of the market today, 600k will transfer from mostly aggressive funds to a money market fund for me.  I did pretty well in the 2008-9 crash (in hindsight, at one point, it looked like I'd gotten back in too early).  Just a fun experiment with, what I'm now convinced is very little downside.  The market needs to take a breather from this breathless sprint into ginormous headwinds...  but it'll be hard to know what to do even if the market corrects 20%!  Not really worried, I'm way ahead of schedule on retirement funds, so I can sit it out for a while either way, just more worried than optimistic at this point as the November mid-terms start to ramp up.  Good luck everyone!  Knowing when to invest, for me, is harder than knowing when to sell.

So, is this going to become the 'Bottom is in' thread?  I need to come up with a plan to put this 600k back in to the market.  I'm expecting a bounce after Christmas and then another leg down, then I'll put in my first 100k.  Need to start to formulate a strategy on what I want to buy and how fast I want to get back in.

Here’s a plan: put it back in the market

[2Birds1Stone]

I did some tax loss harvesting for the first time in my investing career, yesterday.

Just in those few minutes of shifting out of VTI/VXUS into SCHB, I lost $100 =P

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Tax loss harvesting is a good idea, there should be plenty of opportunities to do that in 2019 but might be worth capturing it in 2018 if you need to offset gains.  In the meantime, I will be thinking about my willingness, need, and ability to take risk as I plan on how to invest (Bogleheads talk about this a lot).  2019 is going to be a time of opportunity, these windows open and close a lot more quickly than the steady climbs but it's nice to be in a position to take advantage.  So far, my willingness has only increased slightly - the narrative on the drop still needs to catch up with the market, but in a few months everyone will be talking about how 'obvious' this drop was in hindsight.  Need has increased only a little bit, I've lost quite a bit of money from the highs in my retirement accounts, but was way ahead of the game by the end of 2017.  I'm still comfortably FI.  Ability is high, I need to put the 401k money back in the market for the long term. 

So it all boils down to willingness at this point, and that is still pretty low.  Just going to be patient and revisit as things develop.  Always good to put this down on paper so I don't make purely emotional decisions. 

[TomTX]

Re: Oil  prices are down,  upthread Sol comment about ^fedrates ~= down oil

Crude Oil & Natural Gas
Index    Units    Price    Change    %Change    Contract    Time (EST)    2 Day
CL1:COM WTI Crude Oil (Nymex)
   USD/bbl.    46.21    -1.96    -4.07%    Feb 2019    4:50 PM    
CO1:COM  Brent Crude (ICE)
   USD/bbl.    54.76    -2.48    -4.33%    Feb 2019    4:49 PM    


Gas prices are down, OK, but 8bucks difference but how is this not arbitraged away?

This price dislocation has existed for years.  I was puzzled at first as well.  Have studied the problem and it turns out there are major transportation bottlenecks that prevent the Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) ships from loading at US ports to export crude.  The crude exports from the US are being done on smaller and less efficient ships.  It will be a few more years yet until enough ports increase their depth and capacity to allow widescale VLCC loading in Houston and Corpus Christi and maybe some other places to arbitrage the dislocation away.  There will be maybe 4 ultra deepwater ports in the US max as there just isn't enough global demand for more to be profitable for municipalities to undertake construction costs.

Nope. The (current) WTI issue (price dislocation) is further upstream. WTI is priced at Cushing, OK - and there simply isn't enough capacity to move the oil from the Permian Basin (West Texas) to the Gulf refineries and shipping. Several pipelines coming into use over the next 2 years will ease it.  Shutting down coal power plants this year (mostly using Wyoming coal) helps a bit by easing railway congestion.

All the major ports are upgrading anyway. Texas is spending nearly a billion dollars* building a new, taller bridge** so that bigger ships can get into the Port of Corpus Christi. As you note, every port has major dredging plans. Corpus also has at least two additional oil export terminals planned outside the port proper.

*Including the 25 year "operate/maintain" portion and a reasonable guess on changeorders.

**There are other reasons to replace the bridge as well - the old one is a massive steel truss which requires a lot of ongoing maintenance. It is also far too steep for modern requirements and has a stupidly sharp turn at each end. The new one more logically ties into the Crosstown Expressway at I-37 instead of the dead end of I-37 in downtown proper.

[WhiteTrashCash]

I am really curious how the kids feel about this bear market, because they've never experienced one before. There are adults who have never known anything but economic expansion before. It's interesting to think about, because the Great Recession is still vivid for the rest of us.

[TomTX]

I am really curious how the kids feel about this bear market, because they've never experienced one before. There are adults who have never known anything but economic expansion before. It's interesting to think about, because the Great Recession is still vivid for the rest of us.

I'm lucky that I started early (though my high school investing was all liquidated in college) - I've had money in the market for plenty of crashes.  Plus I was heavy in tech for the 2000 crash.