Top is in

[dougules]

As an icon of market timing, this week I sold...nothing.

I bought...groceries.

Grocery top is in.

I bought groceries last week, and after a weekend of cooking and eating the grocery top was definitely in.  Now everything's going down the toilet.

[Buffaloski Boris]

Dow <25k before end of the month.......let's do it!

Week!

Tuesday afternoon!

[Exflyboy]

So 3025 was the all time top.. I was rich once...;)

[dragoncar]

I was going to say I wish I sold last week for this months living expenses.  But then I realized my gold and treasuries are at a multi-year high so I guess I’ll just sell those instead!

[solon]

Does anyone have access to one of those fancypants market data services? I'm curious how often the S&P 500 drops 3% in one day.

[FIRE@50]

Looks like a big top sandwich and everyone is going to have to take a bite.

[DadJokes]

Does anyone have access to one of those fancypants market data services? I'm curious how often the S&P 500 drops 3% in one day.

There have been at least 30 times since 1950. The chart I looked at only showed the worst daily drops in each calendar year, so it could have happened more than once in any of those years. A separate chart shows that 4 of the 20 worst days were in 2008, so it's safe to assume that it happens often enough.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_S%26P_500_Index#cite_note-Spindices-2

And yes, Wikipedia is as reliable a source as thorstach is.

I'm surprised that the Christmas Eve drop last year wasn't even 3%.

[JAYSLOL]

Nice to see even stocks are doing a back to school sale

[bacchi]

Well, Thorstach called it...and called it and called it and called it.

Gotta give him props.

[Loren Ver]

Hurray!  This week just happened to be the week that our HSA got moved away from terrible company that wants to steal all my money to fidelity.  So gonna buy low.  It is also the week my little pension check came and is now on its way to vanguard.  Hopefully it will make it to the account while thing are still low. 

I LOVE a good sale :).

[Steeze]

half of me is excited that its triple paycheck month and I will potentially have (3) 401k buys this month at a discount.
the other half of me is disappointed that triple paycheck month will not make my NW spreadsheet higher than a usual month.

[Radagast]

I am calling the top for long term government bonds, as tracked by EDV. It was back in December 2008. All down hill forever from there.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

I am calling the top for long term government bonds, as tracked by EDV. It was back in December 2008. All down hill forever from there.

But then we'd need an update to the Trinity Study!  This would be like saying we have a democracy, but Republicans will never be elected ever again post-2020.  Uncharted territory.  Thorstach would be pleased.

[JAYSLOL]

I am calling the top for long term government bonds, as tracked by EDV. It was back in December 2008. All down hill forever from there.

But then we'd need an update to the Trinity Study!  This would be like saying we have a democracy, but Republicans will never be elected ever again post-2020.  Uncharted territory.  Thorstach would be pleased.

Well, he did say the Top was in, maybe he meant for everything.  Civilization Top is in?  Environmental Top is in?  Known Reality Top is in?  All of the above?

[habanero]

Does anyone have access to one of those fancypants market data services? I'm curious how often the S&P 500 drops 3% in one day.

Drops of 3% or more has happened this often per decade since the 60s (index was created in 1957). And yesterday doesn't count as one as it was 2.98% down, not 3% ;)

60s    2
70s    3
80s  13
90s    9
00s   52
10s   19

total 98

>4% drop has happened 41 days
>5% drop has happened 22 days
>6% drop 15 days
>7% drop 6 days
>8% drop 5 days
>9% drop 2 days
>10% drop 1 day


On the contrary, it was up >3% on the day 103 days in total.

[dougules]

Does anyone have access to one of those fancypants market data services? I'm curious how often the S&P 500 drops 3% in one day.

Drops of 3% or more has happened this often per decade since the 60s (index was created in 1957). And yesterday doesn't count as one as it was 2.98% down, not 3% ;)

60s    2
70s    3
80s  13
90s    9
00s   52
10s   19

total 98

>4% drop has happened 41 days
>5% drop has happened 22 days
>6% drop 15 days
>7% drop 6 days
>8% drop 5 days
>9% drop 2 days
>10% drop 1 day


On the contrary, it was up >3% on the day 103 days in total.

It's a good thing we have thorstach to tell us which of those are up next. 

[JAYSLOL]

Everyone enjoying this dead cat bounce?  Top still in! 

[ysette9]

Arg, now things go on sale? I’m about to go out on maternity leave and can’t have 401k contributions taken from my leave pay, so I already front-loaded everything for the year.

[PDXTabs]

Everyone enjoying this dead cat bounce?  Top still in!

No! I wanted it to keep going down until my buy this Friday.

[Exflyboy]

Arg, now things go on sale? I’m about to go out on maternity leave and can’t have 401k contributions taken from my leave pay, so I already front-loaded everything for the year.

My guess is you'll get another bite of the cherry in 2020. Trump doesn't want a solution to the trade war (that he started) until its firmly in the minds of the voting electorate.. So that means it will all get resolved around August to October next year... Probably August so the stock market will rally strongly into the election.

Thats my prediction anyway..:)

[RWD]

The headlines are giving me quite a laugh. Complete 180 from the previous day of doom and gloom.
"The case for why stocks could climb 20%"
"One simple chart points to a stock market rebound"
"S&P 500 Stocks Analysts Say Are Now Big Bargains" [edit: I just realized this is a stock-picking article...]

[OurTown]

The headlines are giving me quite a laugh. Complete 180 from the previous day of doom and gloom.
"The case for why stocks could climb 20%"
"One simple chart points to a stock market rebound"
"S&P 500 Stocks Analysts Say Are Now Big Bargains" [edit: I just realized this is a stock-picking article...]

At some point on this very thread I posted two simultaneous headlines from CNBC:  one saying the market was about to crash, the other saying we are expecting a continued bull run.

[Maenad]

At some point on this very thread I posted two simultaneous headlines from CNBC:  one saying the market was about to crash, the other saying we are expecting a continued bull run.

That way they can always point to an article showing how they were right! They also get to rile up both sides of commenters and get the most clicks.

[UnleashHell]

so the s&p 500 is basically were it was back in January 2018.
17 months ago.
but the market is high
we must be due a massive drop.
the market keeps on getting higher all the time.
its gonna collapse.
the top is innnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn!

[fattest_foot]

so the s&p 500 is basically were it was back in January 2018.
17 months ago.
but the market is high
we must be due a massive drop.
the market keeps on getting higher all the time.
its gonna collapse.
the top is innnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn!

This is why I can never figure out why people keep saying the market is overpriced. I'm assuming these are the same people that put a ton of faith in PE ratios.

How long does the market need to be flat for it to not be overpriced anymore? If I've gotta wait until 2022, I'm probably going to be disappointed.

[UnleashHell]

How long does the market need to be flat for it to not be overpriced anymore?

If I knew that I'd probably be a trader. with other peoples money.

[vand]

so the s&p 500 is basically were it was back in January 2018.
17 months ago.
but the market is high
we must be due a massive drop.
the market keeps on getting higher all the time.
its gonna collapse.
the top is innnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn!

This is why I can never figure out why people keep saying the market is overpriced. I'm assuming these are the same people that put a ton of faith in PE ratios.

How long does the market need to be flat for it to not be overpriced anymore? If I've gotta wait until 2022, I'm probably going to be disappointed.

But market psychology doesn't work like that. Most people don't buy what is getting cheaper, they buy what is going up. So if the market goes sideways for a few years, people will eventually lose their lustre for stocks, even as they are getting year by year cheaper. They will eventually get fed up of they disappointing returns in the stock market and move their money into something that is going up.

[Buffaloski Boris]

This is why I can never figure out why people keep saying the market is overpriced. I'm assuming these are the same people that put a ton of faith in PE ratios.

How long does the market need to be flat for it to not be overpriced anymore? If I've gotta wait until 2022, I'm probably going to be disappointed.

Same people? Did someone call?

I guess I qualify as one of the “same” people. Because yes, I do think equities in the US are very expensive both historically and as compared to other countries. You can look up the ratios. Price to sales, PE, CAPE, whatever you want. You’re going to find that US equities are expensive. Whether they’re worth it or not is of course a subjective determination. On this website and on this thread in particular, whether US equities are “worth it” or not is a resounding YES!!

For me the answer is generally NO. But not entirely. Being 100% sure of anything in investing is a good way to get your ass handed to you. So yes, I do have some US equities. I just don’t view them as all that great. One of the less ugly girls at the dance perhaps.

[Turkey Leg]

Treetop top is in!



Stock market top, on the other hand, got thorstach'd. #BottomIsIn

[Wintergreen78]

Treetop top is in!



Stock market top, on the other hand, got thorstach'd. #BottomIsIn

I think you can top a treetop top with topped trees. Topped trees top is in!

[Roland of Gilead]

This is why I can never figure out why people keep saying the market is overpriced. I'm assuming these are the same people that put a ton of faith in PE ratios.

How long does the market need to be flat for it to not be overpriced anymore? If I've gotta wait until 2022, I'm probably going to be disappointed.

Same people? Did someone call?

I guess I qualify as one of the “same” people. Because yes, I do think equities in the US are very expensive both historically and as compared to other countries. You can look up the ratios. Price to sales, PE, CAPE, whatever you want. You’re going to find that US equities are expensive. Whether they’re worth it or not is of course a subjective determination. On this website and on this thread in particular, whether US equities are “worth it” or not is a resounding YES!!

For me the answer is generally NO. But not entirely. Being 100% sure of anything in investing is a good way to get your ass handed to you. So yes, I do have some US equities. I just don’t view them as all that great. One of the less ugly girls at the dance perhaps.

Not all sectors are expensive though.   The biotech/medical sector has PE near historical lows, mostly because of current politics.

[DadJokes]

Where is this crash I was promised? It drops for a few days, and now it's climbing again?

The top is a lie

[Tyson]

This is why I can never figure out why people keep saying the market is overpriced. I'm assuming these are the same people that put a ton of faith in PE ratios.

How long does the market need to be flat for it to not be overpriced anymore? If I've gotta wait until 2022, I'm probably going to be disappointed.

Same people? Did someone call?

I guess I qualify as one of the “same” people. Because yes, I do think equities in the US are very expensive both historically and as compared to other countries. You can look up the ratios. Price to sales, PE, CAPE, whatever you want. You’re going to find that US equities are expensive. Whether they’re worth it or not is of course a subjective determination. On this website and on this thread in particular, whether US equities are “worth it” or not is a resounding YES!!

For me the answer is generally NO. But not entirely. Being 100% sure of anything in investing is a good way to get your ass handed to you. So yes, I do have some US equities. I just don’t view them as all that great. One of the less ugly girls at the dance perhaps.

But is anyone here on MMM actually 100% US stocks with their asset allocation?  I know I'm at 80/20 Stocks/Bonds and then within the Stocks I'm 70/30 US/International.  I figured this was a pretty common approach around here, isn't it?

[JAYSLOL]

Where is this crash I was promised? It drops for a few days, and now it's climbing again?

The top is a lie

You want the Top!?  You can’t handle the Top!

[markbike528CBX]

But is anyone here on MMM actually 100% US stocks with their asset allocation?  I know I'm at 80/20 Stocks/Bonds and then within the Stocks I'm 70/30 US/International.  I figured this was a pretty common approach around here, isn't it?

I'm at 100% equities, minus this years cash withdrawals.
International is about 7%, mostly because I've been lazy about the allocation change.
Now in the withdrawal phase and "close enough", with even higher laze factor.

[dragoncar]

But is anyone here on MMM actually 100% US stocks with their asset allocation?  I know I'm at 80/20 Stocks/Bonds and then within the Stocks I'm 70/30 US/International.  I figured this was a pretty common approach around here, isn't it?

I'm at 100% equities, minus this years cash withdrawals.
International is about 7%, mostly because I've been lazy about the allocation change.
Now in the withdrawal phase and "close enough", with even higher laze factor.

I’m sure some are, but I don’t think it’s a majority by any means.  Especially once you factor non-investable assets it becomes almost impossible.

This poll (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/asset-allocation-poll/) showed about 25% all in stocks but that doesn’t mean only US stock

PS my personal mix hit an all time high today.

[dougules]

But is anyone here on MMM actually 100% US stocks with their asset allocation?  I know I'm at 80/20 Stocks/Bonds and then within the Stocks I'm 70/30 US/International.  I figured this was a pretty common approach around here, isn't it?

I'm at 100% equities, minus this years cash withdrawals.
International is about 7%, mostly because I've been lazy about the allocation change.
Now in the withdrawal phase and "close enough", with even higher laze factor.

We've been putting our money into VTWAX.  Why not be invested in Airbus and Boeing at the same time?

[Buffaloski Boris]

But is anyone here on MMM actually 100% US stocks with their asset allocation?  I know I'm at 80/20 Stocks/Bonds and then within the Stocks I'm 70/30 US/International.  I figured this was a pretty common approach around here, isn't it?

Posting your brokerage statement isn’t required here so we really don’t know. We do see enough of the “put it all in VTSAX” sentiment that it makes you wonder. The confirmation bias is strong at MMM forums. Makes it interesting for those of us who think all VTSAX is a meh strategy.

[fattest_foot]

But is anyone here on MMM actually 100% US stocks with their asset allocation?  I know I'm at 80/20 Stocks/Bonds and then within the Stocks I'm 70/30 US/International.  I figured this was a pretty common approach around here, isn't it?

I like to say we are, but like dragoncar mentioned, that's pretty impossible. As far as investments go, yeah, we're 100% equities. But we also have cash, a CD, and own a house we're not upside-down in.

[Buffaloski Boris]

I’m sure some are, but I don’t think it’s a majority by any means.  Especially once you factor non-investable assets it becomes almost impossible.

This poll (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/asset-allocation-poll/) showed about 25% all in stocks but that doesn’t mean only US stock

PS my personal mix hit an all time high today.

Congrats!

I’m definitely in the minority here. And fine with it.

[dragoncar]

I’m sure some are, but I don’t think it’s a majority by any means.  Especially once you factor non-investable assets it becomes almost impossible.

This poll (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/asset-allocation-poll/) showed about 25% all in stocks but that doesn’t mean only US stock

PS my personal mix hit an all time high today.

Congrats!

I’m definitely in the minority here. And fine with it.

Thanks.  Not bragging because my personal mix is still way below 100% VTSAX and I'm ok with that because I had tolerable volatility (although I do intend to do a rising glide path now that I'm FIRE)

[Buffaloski Boris]

I’m sure some are, but I don’t think it’s a majority by any means.  Especially once you factor non-investable assets it becomes almost impossible.

This poll (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/asset-allocation-poll/) showed about 25% all in stocks but that doesn’t mean only US stock

PS my personal mix hit an all time high today.

Congrats!

I’m definitely in the minority here. And fine with it.

Thanks.  Not bragging because my personal mix is still way below 100% VTSAX and I'm ok with that because I had tolerable volatility (although I do intend to do a rising glide path now that I'm FIRE)

Cool. What does your glide path Look like and how did you come up with it? If you care to share.

[Financial.Velociraptor]

I keep about 40% in fixed income ... because TOPS are a real thing.

[ysette9]

We are around 30% bonds now I believe, with a goal to be 40% within the next year. Of our stocks we are 60% VTSAX and 40% VTIAX, or whatever the closest equivalent is in the retirement plan.

We were pretty close to 100% equities up until recently and it is getting close to our FI goal and reading about the reverse glidepath that changed things.

[Exflyboy]

So we run 75/25 in FIRE but we have 40% of our spend coming from rent, plus pensions will start in 2 and 4 years respectively.

All of our Stocks are either VTSAX or Fidelity Russell 1000 .. so almost the same thing.

OK, so whats "wrong" with having no international stock exposure??

[dragoncar]

I’m sure some are, but I don’t think it’s a majority by any means.  Especially once you factor non-investable assets it becomes almost impossible.

This poll (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/asset-allocation-poll/) showed about 25% all in stocks but that doesn’t mean only US stock

PS my personal mix hit an all time high today.

Congrats!

I’m definitely in the minority here. And fine with it.

Thanks.  Not bragging because my personal mix is still way below 100% VTSAX and I'm ok with that because I had tolerable volatility (although I do intend to do a rising glide path now that I'm FIRE)

Cool. What does your glide path Look like and how did you come up with it? If you care to share.

I've got a no-cash version of the golden butterfly (https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/golden-butterfly/) but I plan to spend down the gold and treasuries first for living expenses, and not rebalance into them.  So it's a real slow glidepath (say 12.5 years to 100% equities assuming a flat market).

I'm not really opposed to cash as a rule, but the good thing is that I can always buy more if interest rates get nice.  That's of course market timing, but it'll only hurt me if stocks are way down when interest rates go up and I want more cash (shouldn't they be high if the fed is raising rates?  Honestly, this is a weak point in my strategy but I'm also OK with staying low-cash the backtesting of low-cash).

[Buffaloski Boris]

Cool. What does your glide path Look like and how did you come up with it? If you care to share.

I've got a no-cash version of the golden butterfly (https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/golden-butterfly/) but I plan to spend down the gold and treasuries first for living expenses, and not rebalance into them.  So it's a real slow glidepath (say 12.5 years to 100% equities assuming a flat market).

I'm not really opposed to cash as a rule, but the good thing is that I can always buy more if interest rates get nice.  That's of course market timing, but it'll only hurt me if stocks are way down when interest rates go up and I want more cash (shouldn't they be high if the fed is raising rates?  Honestly, this is a weak point in my strategy but I'm also OK with staying low-cash the backtesting of low-cash).

I think a lot of it has to do with your outlook.  You're betting against a stagflation scenario from what I can tell.  I personally think that sort of scenario is a bit more likely than it has been in the recent past given huge amounts of cash stimulus out there.  I wouldn't bet on it, though.  The 500 lb gorilla everyone is tiptoeing around, at least in the developed world, is aging populations and the crash in birth rates.  Aging populations with few kids don't consume as much stuff.

[effigy98]

I'm doing Golden Butterfly with leverage and so far it is a champ in this environment. UGLD and TMF are pulling the rope big time, while UPRO is getting hit.

[Tyson]

Cool. What does your glide path Look like and how did you come up with it? If you care to share.

I've got a no-cash version of the golden butterfly (https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/golden-butterfly/) but I plan to spend down the gold and treasuries first for living expenses, and not rebalance into them.  So it's a real slow glidepath (say 12.5 years to 100% equities assuming a flat market).

I'm not really opposed to cash as a rule, but the good thing is that I can always buy more if interest rates get nice.  That's of course market timing, but it'll only hurt me if stocks are way down when interest rates go up and I want more cash (shouldn't they be high if the fed is raising rates?  Honestly, this is a weak point in my strategy but I'm also OK with staying low-cash the backtesting of low-cash).

I think a lot of it has to do with your outlook.  You're betting against a stagflation scenario from what I can tell.  I personally think that sort of scenario is a bit more likely than it has been in the recent past given huge amounts of cash stimulus out there.  I wouldn't bet on it, though.  The 500 lb gorilla everyone is tiptoeing around, at least in the developed world, is aging populations and the crash in birth rates.  Aging populations with few kids don't consume as much stuff.

Well, the Millennials now officially outnumber the Baby Boomers, I think we'll be fine.  Immigrants have also (always) been a source of population growth.  In economic terms, population growth is usually a good thing, and often a very good thing.  Which is why the whole idea of building a wall or other super restrictive immigration policies are so stupid.  Not politically stupid (clearly), but definitely economically stupid.   

[Exflyboy]

Yeah I often feel selfish for not stimulating the economy by not spending everything I have and not doing my part to maintain the population...

Then again, friends of ours has just had their petulant teenage boy get arrest for "minor in possession".. Then I think.. F that...:)