Top is in

[Buffaloski Boris]

There was another thread, awhile back (like 1929 I think) where poster Irving Fisher said the market had reached a permanently high plateau.

"The stock market crash of 1929 and the subsequent Great Depression cost Fisher much of his personal wealth and academic reputation. He famously predicted, nine days before the crash, that stock prices had "reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."[26] Irving Fisher stated on October 21 that the market was "only shaking out of the lunatic fringe" and went on to explain why he felt the prices still had not caught up with their real value and should go much higher. On Wednesday, October 23, he announced in a banker's meeting "security values in most instances were not inflated." For months after the Crash, he continued to assure investors that a recovery was just around the corner. "

How could stocks have "reached a permanently high plateau", but also "not have caught up with their real value and should go much higher"? Is my reading comprehension top in, or are those statements completely contradictory?

Quite easy.. the type of bubble sentiment which justifies the idea that any price is worth paying.

This is not a bubble.  The market is just pining for the fjords! 

[frugalnacho]

There was another thread, awhile back (like 1929 I think) where poster Irving Fisher said the market had reached a permanently high plateau.

"The stock market crash of 1929 and the subsequent Great Depression cost Fisher much of his personal wealth and academic reputation. He famously predicted, nine days before the crash, that stock prices had "reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."[26] Irving Fisher stated on October 21 that the market was "only shaking out of the lunatic fringe" and went on to explain why he felt the prices still had not caught up with their real value and should go much higher. On Wednesday, October 23, he announced in a banker's meeting "security values in most instances were not inflated." For months after the Crash, he continued to assure investors that a recovery was just around the corner. "

How could stocks have "reached a permanently high plateau", but also "not have caught up with their real value and should go much higher"? Is my reading comprehension top in, or are those statements completely contradictory?

Quite easy.. the type of bubble sentiment which justifies the idea that any price is worth paying.

Right, but still they cannot have reached a plateau and simultaneously go higher.  Regardless of your own personal beliefs, only one of those statements can possibly be true. 

[frugalnacho]

Also the top is in.  Prices will plateau and remain stable.  They will also continue to increase.  But top is in, so expect a correction as well.

[vand]

There was another thread, awhile back (like 1929 I think) where poster Irving Fisher said the market had reached a permanently high plateau.

"The stock market crash of 1929 and the subsequent Great Depression cost Fisher much of his personal wealth and academic reputation. He famously predicted, nine days before the crash, that stock prices had "reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."[26] Irving Fisher stated on October 21 that the market was "only shaking out of the lunatic fringe" and went on to explain why he felt the prices still had not caught up with their real value and should go much higher. On Wednesday, October 23, he announced in a banker's meeting "security values in most instances were not inflated." For months after the Crash, he continued to assure investors that a recovery was just around the corner. "

How could stocks have "reached a permanently high plateau", but also "not have caught up with their real value and should go much higher"? Is my reading comprehension top in, or are those statements completely contradictory?

Quite easy.. the type of bubble sentiment which justifies the idea that any price is worth paying.

Right, but still they cannot have reached a plateau and simultaneously go higher.  Regardless of your own personal beliefs, only one of those statements can possibly be true.

Why are you getting worked up over the illogical reasoning put out at the top an asset bubble? This is exactly how asset bubbles are formed! Prices become detatched from reality and all sorts of contradictory nonsense is invented to justify it.

During the Nikkei bubble they believed that patriotism would mean nobody would be tempted to sell their shares so there would always be a shortage of supply to drive prices higher. During dotcom companies losing money per unit sold would claim they would make it up through selling more units. I'm not making this stuff up.. this is how silly and twisted logic becomes when everyone is caught up in a bubble.

[wienerdog]

There was another thread, awhile back (like 1929 I think) where poster Irving Fisher said the market had reached a permanently high plateau.

"The stock market crash of 1929 and the subsequent Great Depression cost Fisher much of his personal wealth and academic reputation. He famously predicted, nine days before the crash, that stock prices had "reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."[26] Irving Fisher stated on October 21 that the market was "only shaking out of the lunatic fringe" and went on to explain why he felt the prices still had not caught up with their real value and should go much higher. On Wednesday, October 23, he announced in a banker's meeting "security values in most instances were not inflated." For months after the Crash, he continued to assure investors that a recovery was just around the corner. "

How could stocks have "reached a permanently high plateau", but also "not have caught up with their real value and should go much higher"? Is my reading comprehension top in, or are those statements completely contradictory?

Quite easy.. the type of bubble sentiment which justifies the idea that any price is worth paying.

Right, but still they cannot have reached a plateau and simultaneously go higher.  Regardless of your own personal beliefs, only one of those statements can possibly be true.

Why are you getting worked up over the illogical reasoning put out at the top an asset bubble? This is exactly how asset bubbles are formed! Prices become detatched from reality and all sorts of contradictory nonsense is invented to justify it.

During the Nikkei bubble they believed that patriotism would mean nobody would be tempted to sell their shares so there would always be a shortage of supply to drive prices higher. During dotcom companies losing money per unit sold would claim they would make it up through selling more units. I'm not making this stuff up.. this is how silly and twisted logic becomes when everyone is caught up in a bubble.

So you are saying fear is back?

[Buffaloski Boris]

Also the top is in.  Prices will plateau and remain stable.  They will also continue to increase.  But top is in, so expect a correction as well.

So the outlook for stocks is that prices will go up, prices will go down, and prices will be stable? 

That's why I'm here: actionable advice.

(Thanks for the chuckle).   

[Buffaloski Boris]

So you are saying fear is back?

[Davnasty]

There was another thread, awhile back (like 1929 I think) where poster Irving Fisher said the market had reached a permanently high plateau.

"The stock market crash of 1929 and the subsequent Great Depression cost Fisher much of his personal wealth and academic reputation. He famously predicted, nine days before the crash, that stock prices had "reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."[26] Irving Fisher stated on October 21 that the market was "only shaking out of the lunatic fringe" and went on to explain why he felt the prices still had not caught up with their real value and should go much higher. On Wednesday, October 23, he announced in a banker's meeting "security values in most instances were not inflated." For months after the Crash, he continued to assure investors that a recovery was just around the corner. "

How could stocks have "reached a permanently high plateau", but also "not have caught up with their real value and should go much higher"? Is my reading comprehension top in, or are those statements completely contradictory?

Quite easy.. the type of bubble sentiment which justifies the idea that any price is worth paying.

Right, but still they cannot have reached a plateau and simultaneously go higher.  Regardless of your own personal beliefs, only one of those statements can possibly be true.

Why are you getting worked up over the illogical reasoning put out at the top an asset bubble? This is exactly how asset bubbles are formed! Prices become detatched from reality and all sorts of contradictory nonsense is invented to justify it.

During the Nikkei bubble they believed that patriotism would mean nobody would be tempted to sell their shares so there would always be a shortage of supply to drive prices higher. During dotcom companies losing money per unit sold would claim they would make it up through selling more units. I'm not making this stuff up.. this is how silly and twisted logic becomes when everyone is caught up in a bubble.

You're missing the point. The only thing frugalnacho was questioning was the wording and no one is "worked up".

"reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." sounds a lot like saying the top is in/the market will go forever sideways. Obviously that's not what Fisher meant if he also said "prices [] should go much higher".

Perhaps Fisher meant that prices had reached a plateau and would never dip below it? In any case I agree that the word choice was confusing.

[frugalnacho]

There was another thread, awhile back (like 1929 I think) where poster Irving Fisher said the market had reached a permanently high plateau.

"The stock market crash of 1929 and the subsequent Great Depression cost Fisher much of his personal wealth and academic reputation. He famously predicted, nine days before the crash, that stock prices had "reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."[26] Irving Fisher stated on October 21 that the market was "only shaking out of the lunatic fringe" and went on to explain why he felt the prices still had not caught up with their real value and should go much higher. On Wednesday, October 23, he announced in a banker's meeting "security values in most instances were not inflated." For months after the Crash, he continued to assure investors that a recovery was just around the corner. "

How could stocks have "reached a permanently high plateau", but also "not have caught up with their real value and should go much higher"? Is my reading comprehension top in, or are those statements completely contradictory?

Quite easy.. the type of bubble sentiment which justifies the idea that any price is worth paying.

Right, but still they cannot have reached a plateau and simultaneously go higher.  Regardless of your own personal beliefs, only one of those statements can possibly be true.

Why are you getting worked up over the illogical reasoning put out at the top an asset bubble? This is exactly how asset bubbles are formed! Prices become detatched from reality and all sorts of contradictory nonsense is invented to justify it.

During the Nikkei bubble they believed that patriotism would mean nobody would be tempted to sell their shares so there would always be a shortage of supply to drive prices higher. During dotcom companies losing money per unit sold would claim they would make it up through selling more units. I'm not making this stuff up.. this is how silly and twisted logic becomes when everyone is caught up in a bubble.

I'm not worked up, and I'm not concerned over illogical reasoning.  The statement posted is self contradictory though, that's where I'm confused.  I'm fine with irrational exuberance, and illogical reasoning, but it has to be self consistent at least.   The people claiming that patriotism will drive prices higher were not simultaneously saying the prices will drop or stay flat, because no matter how ill informed and flawed your logic is to reach your conclusion, that conclusion is self contradictory. 

You claim prices will go up, you may be right or you may be wrong.
You claim prices will go down, you may be right or you may be wrong.
You claim prices will both go up and down simultaneously, you are definitely wrong.  Similarly to claim prices have reached a "permanent plateau" but also "will go much higher" and you are definitely wrong because it makes no sense.  Are you familiar with the old robot saying, "Does not compute"?

[frugalnacho]

There was another thread, awhile back (like 1929 I think) where poster Irving Fisher said the market had reached a permanently high plateau.

"The stock market crash of 1929 and the subsequent Great Depression cost Fisher much of his personal wealth and academic reputation. He famously predicted, nine days before the crash, that stock prices had "reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."[26] Irving Fisher stated on October 21 that the market was "only shaking out of the lunatic fringe" and went on to explain why he felt the prices still had not caught up with their real value and should go much higher. On Wednesday, October 23, he announced in a banker's meeting "security values in most instances were not inflated." For months after the Crash, he continued to assure investors that a recovery was just around the corner. "

How could stocks have "reached a permanently high plateau", but also "not have caught up with their real value and should go much higher"? Is my reading comprehension top in, or are those statements completely contradictory?

Quite easy.. the type of bubble sentiment which justifies the idea that any price is worth paying.

Right, but still they cannot have reached a plateau and simultaneously go higher.  Regardless of your own personal beliefs, only one of those statements can possibly be true.

Why are you getting worked up over the illogical reasoning put out at the top an asset bubble? This is exactly how asset bubbles are formed! Prices become detatched from reality and all sorts of contradictory nonsense is invented to justify it.

During the Nikkei bubble they believed that patriotism would mean nobody would be tempted to sell their shares so there would always be a shortage of supply to drive prices higher. During dotcom companies losing money per unit sold would claim they would make it up through selling more units. I'm not making this stuff up.. this is how silly and twisted logic becomes when everyone is caught up in a bubble.

You're missing the point. The only thing frugalnacho was questioning was the wording and no one is "worked up".

"reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." sounds a lot like saying the top is in/the market will go forever sideways. Obviously that's not what Fisher meant if he also said "prices [] should go much higher".

Perhaps Fisher meant that prices had reached a plateau and would never dip below it? In any case I agree that the word choice was confusing.

Exactly, I'm not fucking worked up god dammit!

[SwordGuy]

With all the activity on this thread I figured something must be going on in the market.

And, basically, at the moment, my stocks are still higher than they were at the start of the year.

Time to press the snooze button again. 

[Wolfpack Mustachian]

With all the activity on this thread I figured something must be going on in the market.

And, basically, at the moment, my stocks are still higher than they were at the start of the year.

Time to press the snooze button again.

Are you kidding me?!? The Dow is down like 1000 points which is like 20% of 5000, which would be like 18% of the total Dow! The top was so in yesterday!

[dougules]

Right, but still they cannot have reached a plateau and simultaneously go higher.  Regardless of your own personal beliefs, only one of those statements can possibly be true.

Why are you getting worked up over the illogical reasoning put out at the top an asset bubble? This is exactly how asset bubbles are formed! Prices become detatched from reality and all sorts of contradictory nonsense is invented to justify it.

During the Nikkei bubble they believed that patriotism would mean nobody would be tempted to sell their shares so there would always be a shortage of supply to drive prices higher. During dotcom companies losing money per unit sold would claim they would make it up through selling more units. I'm not making this stuff up.. this is how silly and twisted logic becomes when everyone is caught up in a bubble.

Yes, that's exactly what we're all saying!  The top is in!  The bubble is about to burst, and we're all doomed!

[Turkey Leg]

Sell all stocks and buy gold because...



...gold top is in!

[techwiz]

Market bubble "POP"

Top is in!

[BDWW]

I do get a bit irrationally sad on days like today...

Because I invest on a regular schedule, and don't have very much excess cash to buy shares on the dip. Oh well, maybe it be down more when next week's transfer hits.

[wienerdog]

Why didn't Thorstach call the top on Thursday so I had warning of this?

[SwordGuy]

S&P 500 was up 0.05% YTD when I checked.

Now it's down 0.13% YTD.   

I don't pay much attention to the Dow because I invest in broad-brush index funds.

[dandarc]

Pricing in Bernie's win in Nevada?

[SwordGuy]

With all the activity on this thread I figured something must be going on in the market.

And, basically, at the moment, my stocks are still higher than they were at the start of the year.

Time to press the snooze button again.

Are you kidding me?!? The Dow is down like 1000 points which is like 20% of 5000, which would be like 18% of the total Dow! The top was so in yesterday!

Are you kidding me?   As of this moment the Dow is down about 918 points, or 1.63% for the year.   Yawn.

Wake me at 10% down for the year.

[habanero]

The Dow is a bizarre index, the weightings in the index are a result of share price of the components, not market cap as for the S&P 500. So the company with the highest weighting in the Dow is Boeing as the share price is 300 something (Apple is now #2). And some of the most valuable companies in the US ain't even in the index, like Amazon, for example. Goldman Sachs has almost twice the weight of JP Morgan despite the latter being way more valuable as a company. Home Depot has a higher weighting than Microsoft. And so on and so on.

[DadJokes]

I wonder when Thorstach will make an appearance, leading to a nice rebound. Hopefully, it's after my next paycheck posts.

[dandarc]

I wonder when Thorstach will make an appearance, leading to a nice rebound. Hopefully, it's after my next paycheck posts.

I'm guessing when fear is back.

[dragoncar]

It’s not really contradictory.  I see plateau defined as “ a state of little or no change following a period of activity or progress” which does not preclude a little increase. 

Alternatively, he’s speaking  geologically and a plateaus remain flat while plate tectonics continues to lift the entire plateau

[Buffaloski Boris]

Are you kidding me?   As of this moment the Dow is down about 918 points, or 1.63% for the year.   Yawn.

Wake me at 10% down for the year.

Do a favor? Kick me awake when it goes to -15%.

[aboatguy]

It went down, it is still dropping.......


To paraphrase Herman Wouk, Panic!, in times of danger or in doubt run in circles scream and shout....... or channel Jack Bogle and just do nothing...   I  prefer the later..and the top is still not in.

and it's still dropping

and its still dropping.....

[Brother Esau]

Are you kidding me?   As of this moment the Dow is down about 918 points, or 1.63% for the year.   Yawn.

Wake me at 10% down for the year.

Do a favor? Kick me awake when it goes to -15%.

meh...i'll start paying attention after -20%

[aspiringnomad]

Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, a new coronavirus, aka COVID-19, will be a reality check.

All hail thorstach, the new prognosticator of prognosticators!

[Glenstache]

It’s not really contradictory.  I see plateau defined as “ a state of little or no change following a period of activity or progress” which does not preclude a little increase. 

Alternatively, he’s speaking  geologically and a plateaus remain flat while plate tectonics continues to lift the entire plateau

Geologically, plateaus are often all that us left after everything else has been eroded away.

[dragoncar]

Are you kidding me?   As of this moment the Dow is down about 918 points, or 1.63% for the year.   Yawn.

Wake me at 10% down for the year.

Do a favor? Kick me awake when it goes to -15%.

[Exflyboy]

I plan to move some of my Bond funds to stock at -20%.. I was just about to pull the trigger on Dec 24th 2018.. and the bastard market went up.. grr!

So yeah, 20% down is my first move..:)

[Buffaloski Boris]

I plan to move some of my Bond funds to stock at -20%.. I was just about to pull the trigger on Dec 24th 2018.. and the bastard market went up.. grr!

So yeah, 20% down is my first move..:)

Yeah, I missed it last time.  Hence my humble request for an early wake-up call at -15%.  Until then it's just background noise.

[Brother Esau]

I plan to move some of my Bond funds to stock at -20%.. I was just about to pull the trigger on Dec 24th 2018.. and the bastard market went up.. grr!

So yeah, 20% down is my first move..:)

I have green soldiers lined up and ready for the attack.

[Heliios]

 Today

[TomTX]

I have green soldiers lined up and ready for the attack.

I've got very little other than the usual beginning of the month payroll deduction investments...

[JAYSLOL]

I wonder when Thorstach will make an appearance, leading to a nice rebound. Hopefully, it's after my next paycheck posts.

Tomorrow, if tomorrow is another day of sliding stock prices, followed by a rally Wednesday. 

[Brother Esau]

I have green soldiers lined up and ready for the attack.

I've got very little other than the usual beginning of the month payroll deduction investments...

Just rebalancing in my case

[Wintergreen78]

We haven’t had a drop this big in the SP500 since 2018!!!

This is a disaster!!!!

PANIC!!!!!

Two whole years people. This is historic. You’ll be telling your grandkids where you were on February 24, 2020.

I’m selling everything and buying land in Arizona.

[Glenstache]

We haven’t had a drop this big in the SP500 since 2018!!!

This is a disaster!!!!

PANIC!!!!!

Two whole years people. This is historic. You’ll be telling your grandkids where you were on February 24, 2020.

I’m selling everything and buying land in Arizona.

Watch out for the Arizona property top.

[Monerexia]

How bleak it must be for the Only Up Is Good crowd. Missing the whole other half of life haha

[Wintergreen78]

We haven’t had a drop this big in the SP500 since 2018!!!

This is a disaster!!!!

PANIC!!!!!

Two whole years people. This is historic. You’ll be telling your grandkids where you were on February 24, 2020.

I’m selling everything and buying land in Arizona.

Watch out for the Arizona property top.

Land in Arizona only goes up in value. They aren’t making any more of it.

[aspiringnomad]

How bleak it must be for the Only Up Is Good crowd. Missing the whole other half of life haha

Technically only missing the other ~46% of life.

[Monerexia]

How bleak it must be for the Only Up Is Good crowd. Missing the whole other half of life haha

Technically only missing the other ~46% of life.

Ha! So true. i stand corrected. Which is right around eight times the house edge in blackjack--one cannot possibly lose just cover all bets all the time like the house.

[dougules]

Watch out for the Arizona property top.

Land in Arizona only goes up in value. They aren’t making any more of it.

If they aren't making any more of it, I think that means it's at a permanent plateau.  On the other hand top is not in for Hawaii; they are making more of it.

[BigMoneyJim]

Ok, you know what actually has me worried? Several days of down with no thorstach, people giving up on their top is in bets, and the thread is jubilant while still heading down. No one is taking this dip seriously, so it's probably the big one.

Not that I'm going to do anything different.

[solon]

Some one a couple pages ago was talking about how this thread would get real quiet in the next downturn. Noob.

[Brother Esau]

Markets always rebound after thorstach checks in with a "Top is In". C'mon thorstach...where are you to save the day?

[HPstache]

Two down days in a row?  It's O'fish-oil... TOP WAS IN.

[dandarc]

VIX is over 25. TWENTY FIVE. Will earnings be a reality check? Is fear back?

[erutio]

Watch out for the Arizona property top.

Land in Arizona only goes up in value. They aren’t making any more of it.

If they aren't making any more of it, I think that means it's at a permanent plateau.  On the other hand top is not in for Hawaii; they are making more of it.

I thought we learned from 1929 that permanent plateau tops can only go up.  Permanent plateau tops are in!