Top is in

[Stache-O-Lantern]

Where is thorstach? Did they give up predicting the top?

Thorstach never went away, Thorstach is here among us, dwelling inside each and every one of us, guiding our thoughts, animating our actions. I am Thorstach, you are Thorstach, we are all brothers and sisters in Thorstach, and we are all called to witness to the truth, the truth that the top is here on Earth right now!

The the top and the bottom are one.  There is a top and a bottom in every moment simultaneously.  You must find your inner top and set it free into the world.

That's a quantum top.  If you don't measure it, then there is a non-zero probability that the top has been in all this time. 

That's the universe i choose to live in, although luckily my investments are in this one.

[Retire-Canada]

Hey when you have this much FIRE aspiration going on you risk a Melt Up! Bring it on!

[DarkandStormy]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-investors-should-brace-for-a-possible-near-term-melt-up-jeremy-grantham-2018-01-03

Was referring to Jeremy Grantham, actually.  From last week.

[nereo]

I'm jumping on the anti "melt-down" terminology bandwagon for one reason: the metaphor doesn't hold in a visual sense.
A melt-down is self explanatory; something gets too hot until it melts into a puddle of glowing goo damaging everything in its proximity.  But a "melt up"?  Things that are melting don't keep going up.  #wordfail.

[frugalnacho]

And yet somehow we all understand exactly what the term means.

[brooklynguy]

"Melt-up" isn't the only term-of-art in the domain of finance that is the product of the modification of an existing descriptive metaphor that employs the antonym of one the underlying metaphor's components in an attempt to describe the opposite of the phenomenon being described and that consequently results in a confusing phrase that has no self-evident meaning to anyone unaware of the genesis of the phrase.  Another (which is equally if not more stupid than "melt-up") is "bail-in".

[techwiz]

I found some images to help with the visual sense for the metaphors.

Rock "Melting up" to the surface


Person Bailing in

[frugalnacho]

All my coworkers are talking about bitcoin and lamenting that they didn't get in sooner. 

The radio is starting to play ads for people that can show anyone how to make money flipping houses. 

Everyone I know including coworkers are talking about a big stock melt up.

[Retire-Canada]

I am legally changing my middle name to "Blockchain" my barber told me just doing that would make my personal net worth soar. I don't know what a blockchain is, but I like the sound of it! ;)

[DrF]

Aye, the top is "melt"-in.

[BTDretire]

that consequently results in a confusing phrase that has no self-evident meaning to anyone unaware of the genesis of the phrase. 

I would suggest you have a better chance of knowing the self evident meaning if you don't know the genesis and only know the context in the market term melt down. As most here
or in the financial world would know.

[brooklynguy]

that consequently results in a confusing phrase that has no self-evident meaning to anyone unaware of the genesis of the phrase. 

I would suggest you have a better chance of knowing the self evident meaning if you don't know the genesis and only know the context in the market term melt down. As most here
or in the financial world would know.

I meant the genesis of the derivative term, not the genesis of the underlying original term (in other words, I meant the very fact that the derivative term is derived from the underlying original term).  Neither "melt-up" nor "bail-in" has any self-evident meaning to anyone unaware of the fact that it is intended to derive its (antonymous) meaning by reference to the underlying original term ("melt-down" or "bail-out," respectively)--each of the derivative terms has, as sol observed, no logical underpinning of its own.

[dragoncar]

While ice melts (fundamentals), notice what happens to the water (valuations)

[JAYSLOL]

This thread is melting up, the Top of thread is in. 

[DS]

I've never seen this thread with so many posts...it's hit its top for sure.

[nereo]

I've never seen this thread with so many posts...it's hit its top for sure.

I'm going on record saying the post count in this thread will continue to go up.  No downside!

[PathtoFIRE]

I've never seen this thread with so many posts...it's hit its top for sure.

I'm going on record saying the post count in this thread will continue to go up.  No downside!

*sells this thread short and then begins deleting posts*

[solon]

I've never seen this thread with so many posts...it's hit its top for sure.

I'm going on record saying the post count in this thread will continue to go up.  No downside!

*sells this thread short and then begins deleting posts*

Pretty soon we'll reach the tipping point and EVERYONE will start deleting their posts!

[nereo]

I've never seen this thread with so many posts...it's hit its top for sure.

I'm going on record saying the post count in this thread will continue to go up.  No downside!

*sells this thread short and then begins deleting posts*

Sorry dearie - You ain't got the volume to alter the market.

[dreadmoose]

You guys aren't getting it, we're comparing the overvalued nature of these posts against future posts.

Thread CAPE is way too high!

That will surely cause a melting dead cat ricochet.

[Inaya]

I've been put in charge of the departmental newsletter. I have received a request to include the prices of the top five cryptocurrencies when I go to print. It's a monthly newsletter. I'm gonna do it anyway because it amuses me.

[nereo]

You guys aren't getting it, we're comparing the overvalued nature of these posts against future posts.

Thread CAPE is way too high!

That will surely cause a melting dead cat ricochet.

Yes, but which direction is the dead cat melting?

[frugalnacho]

It's a lateral melt for now.

[MrDelane]

2. Bull market lasting three more months is very different from a melt up scenario that was mentioned in the post:
50% of the gains in every bull run occur in the last 10% of the time, AND WE ARE NEARLY THERE (time-wise)!
To quantify it, the s&p has gone up ~9% in the last 3 months, and it appears to be accelerating. When was the last time the s&p moved that much in 3 months and was not recovering from a drop? To be honest I don't know the answer myself, I should look at the stats. Perhaps we could both look at it? Edit: My instincts tell me it was in 2013, could be wrong. Edit2: Checked data, it was in 2013.

...

I don't so much predict. I analyse and maybe plan accordingly, I will not always be right, and I am bound to screw up sometime.

Interesting.

So - according to your analysis, when will the top be in?
And what would you suggest people do to "plan accordingly"?

[Optimiser]

It's a lateral melt for now.

[nereo]

There you have it - we aren't melting up.  We're melting laterally.

[anisotropy]

2. Bull market lasting three more months is very different from a melt up scenario that was mentioned in the post:
50% of the gains in every bull run occur in the last 10% of the time, AND WE ARE NEARLY THERE (time-wise)!
To quantify it, the s&p has gone up ~9% in the last 3 months, and it appears to be accelerating. When was the last time the s&p moved that much in 3 months and was not recovering from a drop? To be honest I don't know the answer myself, I should look at the stats. Perhaps we could both look at it? Edit: My instincts tell me it was in 2013, could be wrong. Edit2: Checked data, it was in 2013.

...

I don't so much predict. I analyse and maybe plan accordingly, I will not always be right, and I am bound to screw up sometime.

Interesting.

So - according to your analysis, when will the top be in?
And what would you suggest people do to "plan accordingly"?

I don't know when the top will be in because I don't see the top yet. I am extremely data reliant since I do analysis and not predictions, which limits how far I may "see" into the future. I want to stress the fact that I consider myself fairly average when it comes to critical thinking and making logical deductions, so I will make mistakes even if I used the relevant/correct data and proper Stats techniques.

My strength (at least I think so) however, is that I recognize mistakes and I will change my mind when evidences stack against my current/previous conclusions. I focus on how things are, not what I think/thought they should be. In short, I follow evidences and not narratives, which is more than can be said for most people, who not only find it extremely difficult to admit mistakes and change their ways, but also fail to think critically at the same time. You can check my post history to see if that is mostly true.

If you are interested in seeing how this is an advantage as far as investing is concerned, I can send you some of the things I've written on my blog regarding the CL (crude oil WTI) market which exhibits the characteristics I've just described. I am not interested in promoting myself, my blog serves as a place for me to store and reflect on my ideas from time to time. It would likely be a copy and paste, which means the links in the posts would be lost.

Lastly, I write my opinions, not advice for other people. You probably know I believe in market timing and I would much prefer the passive crowd stays passive come what may. This way one of us will definitely make money off each other, instead of both losing out on bad calls.

EDIT: Just read some of your recent posts, I am impressed with how you think and write. Activating Man-crush mode.

[Apple_Tango]

I don't know when the top will be in because I don't see the top yet. I am extremely data reliant... which limits how far I may "see" into the future.

Same.

[TomTX]

Apparently "melt up" is a genuine term of the art. I didn't know it either.

A dramatic and unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset class driven partly by a stampede of investors who don't want to miss out on its rise rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy. Gains created by a melt up are considered an unreliable indication of the direction the market is ultimately headed, and melt ups often precede melt downs.

... so essentially a bubble?

Source: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/melt-up.asp

Yeah, a really stupid way to say a bubble.

In better news, the market actually sagged a bit today - VTI down 0.16% (!)

Surely that's the sign of the stampede for the exits!

Once we get this crash out of the way, I can stop checking the market multiple times a week and go back to sleep - but this thread keeps sucking me in!

[aboatguy]

So in summary this is still not the top, just a small freeze in the melt up.   I hope this freeze in the melt up goes a lot further tomorrow so that I can buy at sale pricing on payday (this friday)




Mike

[dragoncar]

There you have it - we aren't melting up.  We're melting laterally.

You guys just aren’t thinking fourth dimensionally. We are melting through time

[frugalnacho]

There you have it - we aren't melting up.  We're melting laterally.

You guys just aren’t thinking fourth dimensionally. We are melting through time

Great Scott!

[Apple_Tango]

The the top and the bottom are one.  There is a top and a bottom in every moment simultaneously.  You must find your inner top and set it free into the world.

That's a quantum top.  If you don't measure it, then there is a non-zero probability that the top has been in all this time. 

That's the universe i choose to live in, although luckily my investments are in this one.

Ohhhh I've been doing it wrong. I've been taking off my outer top and bottom to show myself to the world. That explains a lot.

[nereo]

So in summary this is still not the top, just a small freeze in the melt up. 

OH for christ's sake - are we freezing up or down as we melt up? How we be both freezing and melting at the same time?  Or am I not thinking 4th dimensionally again? ("yeah, I have a real problem with that, doc"

[DS]

At the next correction/bear market someone should compare the frequency of posts in this thread to the market trends.

[nereo]

At the next correction/bear market someone should compare the frequency of posts in this thread to the market trends.

Sounds good.  We look forward to your report next month, DS.

[MrDelane]

I don't know when the top will be in because I don't see the top yet. I am extremely data reliant since I do analysis and not predictions, which limits how far I may "see" into the future.

Fair enough - I suppose I could have phrased my question differently.
If you can't give us an estimate of time, can you explain what you're looking for at least - when will you know that the top is coming?  What is the sign you're looking for?  Is it the gains from the S&P as a function of the length of the bull market (which you mentioned in your earlier post)?  Or is there something else?

And, while I appreciate the rest of your answer, you didn't really address the most important question (in my opinion anyhow) - which is, what should we do when we see the sign that you're looking for?  Warning people that the top is coming (and a subsequent crash) assumes that you expect them to do something with that information.  So what is it that you feel people should do?  I only ask because we often see predictions or analysis from either fellow posters or pundits warning of certain moves in the stock market - but they rarely come with any actionable advice.

Would you have people sell and keep cash?  Move into bonds?  Buying Gold?  Bitcoin?
I'm sincerely curious.

EDIT: Just read some of your recent posts, I am impressed with how you think and write. Activating Man-crush mode.

Ha.  Thanks.
You probably mixed up my post history with someone else.
:)

[DS]

At the next correction/bear market someone should compare the frequency of posts in this thread to the market trends.

Sounds good.  We look forward to your report next month, DS.

Report is already done: Top is in

[PathtoFIRE]

So in summary this is still not the top, just a small freeze in the melt up. 

OH for christ's sake - are we freezing up or down as we melt up? How we be both freezing and melting at the same time?  Or am I not thinking 4th dimensionally again? ("yeah, I have a real problem with that, doc"

I predict this melting/freezing analogy won't see a top until someone figures out a way to incorporate sublimation/deposition into it as well.

[techwiz]

With the market heating up it is skipping the liquid phase and going directly into a gas.  Once we hit the "TOP"  the heat will escape from the market causing it to go directly into a solid frozen state. 

[Mr. Boh]

With the market heating up it is skipping the liquid phase and going directly into a gas.  Once we hit the "TOP"  the heat will escape from the market causing it to go directly into a solid frozen state.

I finally learned something in this thread. It only took 33 pages.

[aboatguy]

Looks like we are melting up again today.   How high can a melt up go? 

[sol]

Looks like we are melting up again today.   How high can a melt up go?

I think the hard limit is defined by the relative mass of your melting substance compared to the mass at the bottom of your gravitational well.

On earth, solar energy melts ice into water into water vapor, and in the high atmosphere ionized water molecules into hydroxyl radicals and hydrogen ions at a maximum temperature (speed) insufficient to reach escape velocity.  On mars, the same process results in decomposed water molecules shooting off into space.  So mars loses water over time while Earth does not.

Sadly, this means Elon's plans to terraform Mars are doomed to failure in the long term, which means the stock market will eventually go to zero.

[AdrianC]

Looks like we are melting up again today.   How high can a melt up go?

Jeremy Grantham (FWIW) says:
A range of 9 to 18 months from today and a price rise to around 3,400 to 3,700 on the S&P 500 would show the same 60% gain over 21 months as the least of the other classic bubble events.

and

A melt-up or end-phase of a bubble within the next 6 months to 2 years is likely, i.e., over 50%.

https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source/research-and-commentary/strategies/asset-allocation/viewpoints---bracing-yourself-for-a-possible-near-term-melt-up.pdf?sfvrsn=2

[anisotropy]

I don't know when the top will be in because I don't see the top yet. I am extremely data reliant since I do analysis and not predictions, which limits how far I may "see" into the future.

Fair enough - I suppose I could have phrased my question differently.
If you can't give us an estimate of time, can you explain what you're looking for at least - when will you know that the top is coming?  What is the sign you're looking for?  Is it the gains from the S&P as a function of the length of the bull market (which you mentioned in your earlier post)?  Or is there something else?

And, while I appreciate the rest of your answer, you didn't really address the most important question (in my opinion anyhow) - which is, what should we do when we see the sign that you're looking for?  Warning people that the top is coming (and a subsequent crash) assumes that you expect them to do something with that information.  So what is it that you feel people should do?  I only ask because we often see predictions or analysis from either fellow posters or pundits warning of certain moves in the stock market - but they rarely come with any actionable advice.

Would you have people sell and keep cash?  Move into bonds?  Buying Gold?  Bitcoin?
I'm sincerely curious.

EDIT: Just read some of your recent posts, I am impressed with how you think and write. Activating Man-crush mode.

Ha.  Thanks.
You probably mixed up my post history with someone else.
:)

I mentioned my method in an old post, it's momentum combined with other indicators. Momentum usually exits too early and joins too late so I do not see it as a viable strategy on its own.
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/dual-momentum-investing/msg1490347/#msg1490347

Sorry but I maintain my stance in that post and will not elaborate as long as it continues to work (who knows for how much longer)... However... the basic idea is that market does not move in a random fashion and is heavily influenced by the economics. This post from philosophical economics should give you an idea.

Note: it's really long and he doesn't really get into the "good part" until late in the post. Regardless, we arrived at similar conclusions independently even though we use different indicators.
http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2016/01/gtt/

p.s: We could discuss how the length of the bull market (where we are in a cycle) impacts the market though, even if every cycle is slightly different.

Again, I do not give advice to people. My opinion is that people should do what they have always done (what they believe is right) until evidence clearly tells them otherwise. So for a passive investor, when he hears the trumpet, just stay put come what may. I will obviously run for the hill (bond, cash, shorting); one of us will be right and profit handsomely. It is then up to the person who got it wrong to make the decision if he wants to change his ways.

[dougules]

Do we need to start putting full azimuth and elevation on our phrasal verbs?

I've been put in charge of the departmental newsletter. I have received a request to include the prices of the top five cryptocurrencies when I go to print. It's a monthly newsletter. I'm gonna do it anyway because it amuses me.

You should price Bitcoin in Venezuelan Bolivars, Ethereum in Iraqi Dinars, and Ripple in North Korean Won.  It makes about as much sense. 

[nereo]

A melt-up or end-phase of a bubble within the next 6 months to 2 years is likely, i.e., over 50%.

Wait a minute... some guy is predicting that there's a >50% chance this bull run will end in the next two years??!!
Color me shocked.

I'd also like to predict that there's a >50% chance that there's a >50% chance the superbowl will be won by either the patriots, eagles, steelers or vikings (or possibly the Jaguars, Saints, Falcons or Titans).

I'm also going to predict that Apple will announce a new iPhone sometime in the next 2 years, DJT will tweet something most people find inflammatory, and there will be a major natural disaster somewhere in the US.

[Travis]

A melt-up or end-phase of a bubble within the next 6 months to 2 years is likely, i.e., over 50%.

Wait a minute... some guy is predicting that there's a >50% chance this bull run will end in the next two years??!!
Color me shocked.

I'd also like to predict that there's a >50% chance that there's a >50% chance the superbowl will be won by either the patriots, eagles, steelers or vikings (or possibly the Jaguars, Saints, Falcons or Titans).

I'm also going to predict that Apple will announce a new iPhone sometime in the next 2 years, DJT will tweet something most people find inflammatory, and there will be a major natural disaster somewhere in the US.

You've got it all nailed down. Better go cash in!

[rab-bit]

Tuna melt-up:

[Optimiser]

Tuna melt-up:
http://www.bumblebee.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/three-cheese-tuna-melt.jpg

Based on the distribution of the cheese above and below the tuna, I'd say that there was a simultaneous melt-up and melt-down. The results look delicious.