Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 3232288 times)

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4250 on: January 30, 2019, 07:11:05 AM »
Fair warning: I just pulled $60K out of an old 401(k) to roll it into my new plan. It'll take about 2 weeks to get the money re-invested. Expect a steep market runup over the next 2 weeks, followed by an unprecedented cratering.

I know that feeling.

I transferred 300k last january from my old employer to the new one. had to be done by check. it was my new years resolution to get it done last year so i moved into action early jan. took 2 weeks from selling the old funds to buying the new ones.
missed the 150 point run up in the s&p. got reinvested just in time to see it drop 10%.
had I procrastinated by a couple of weeks (something I'm good at) I'd have pulled the money out at the top and reinvested after that big drop.

I (being the idiot i am) actually calculated that the poor timing of my fund movement cost me something like 27K compared to doing nothing. ( I didn't hit exactly the top and bottom last jan but it was close)
le sigh.

Ouch! That's my biggest fear, but i'm working with 1/5 of what you transferred, so the damage would be lesser even if my timing ends up being bad. Two weeks of calm (or better yet, declining) markets would make me really happy right now. But in any case, I should make up any losses in the long run by getting my assets out of a crappy MassMutual 401(k) and getting it invested with Vanguard.

UnleashHell

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4251 on: January 30, 2019, 10:09:15 AM »
Fair warning: I just pulled $60K out of an old 401(k) to roll it into my new plan. It'll take about 2 weeks to get the money re-invested. Expect a steep market runup over the next 2 weeks, followed by an unprecedented cratering.

I know that feeling.

I transferred 300k last january from my old employer to the new one. had to be done by check. it was my new years resolution to get it done last year so i moved into action early jan. took 2 weeks from selling the old funds to buying the new ones.
missed the 150 point run up in the s&p. got reinvested just in time to see it drop 10%.
had I procrastinated by a couple of weeks (something I'm good at) I'd have pulled the money out at the top and reinvested after that big drop.

I (being the idiot i am) actually calculated that the poor timing of my fund movement cost me something like 27K compared to doing nothing. ( I didn't hit exactly the top and bottom last jan but it was close)
le sigh.

Ouch! That's my biggest fear, but i'm working with 1/5 of what you transferred, so the damage would be lesser even if my timing ends up being bad. Two weeks of calm (or better yet, declining) markets would make me really happy right now. But in any case, I should make up any losses in the long run by getting my assets out of a crappy MassMutual 401(k) and getting it invested with Vanguard.


still worth doing. I just got unlucky and dropped back int he market when the top was in (keeping it on topic :D )

PathtoFIRE

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4252 on: January 30, 2019, 11:12:19 AM »
So lost out on 1 day of market returns.

Yearly market returns lean heavily (and retrospectively) on just a few days throughout the year. From 1998-2017, missing the 5 best single days resulted in a 45% decline in total return over that 20 year period. So you really don't want to miss even a single day!

Or do you...During that same period, missing the 5 worst days resulted in a 71% increase in total return over 20 years. Missing the worst 40 days increased total return by 952%!*

https://www.ifa.com/12steps/step4/missing_the_best_and_worst_days/

In conclusion, the more you stay out of the market, the better your gains. [/s]



*Note, I just pulled this off the first hit I got on Google, I don't have any idea who IFA is or whether this analysis is even legitimate.

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4253 on: January 30, 2019, 01:04:53 PM »
Fed does nothing, Dow jumps 500.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4254 on: January 30, 2019, 01:48:36 PM »
So lost out on 1 day of market returns.

Yearly market returns lean heavily (and retrospectively) on just a few days throughout the year. From 1998-2017, missing the 5 best single days resulted in a 45% decline in total return over that 20 year period. So you really don't want to miss even a single day!

Or do you...During that same period, missing the 5 worst days resulted in a 71% increase in total return over 20 years. Missing the worst 40 days increased total return by 952%!*

https://www.ifa.com/12steps/step4/missing_the_best_and_worst_days/

In conclusion, the more you stay out of the market, the better your gains. [/s]



*Note, I just pulled this off the first hit I got on Google, I don't have any idea who IFA is or whether this analysis is even legitimate.

For index funds you could probably hedge against this pretty cheaply with options

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4255 on: January 30, 2019, 02:03:16 PM »
Fed does nothing, Dow jumps 500.


It begins:


Fair warning: I just pulled $60K out of an old 401(k) to roll it into my new plan. It'll take about 2 weeks to get the money re-invested. Expect a steep market runup over the next 2 weeks, followed by an unprecedented cratering.

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4256 on: January 30, 2019, 02:12:36 PM »
So lost out on 1 day of market returns.

Yearly market returns lean heavily (and retrospectively) on just a few days throughout the year. From 1998-2017, missing the 5 best single days resulted in a 45% decline in total return over that 20 year period. So you really don't want to miss even a single day!

Or do you...During that same period, missing the 5 worst days resulted in a 71% increase in total return over 20 years. Missing the worst 40 days increased total return by 952%!*

https://www.ifa.com/12steps/step4/missing_the_best_and_worst_days/

In conclusion, the more you stay out of the market, the better your gains. [/s]



*Note, I just pulled this off the first hit I got on Google, I don't have any idea who IFA is or whether this analysis is even legitimate.

For index funds you could probably hedge against this pretty cheaply with options

Probably not going to be doing anything other than waiting, but for the sake of enlightenment how exactly would you recommend protecting against a steep run-up in the market when you know you will have a significant percentage of your assets uninvested for a couple of weeks? Buying calls? I've never dabbled in options aside from selling a few covered calls several years ago.
« Last Edit: January 30, 2019, 02:16:34 PM by Mississippi Mudstache »

UnleashHell

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4257 on: January 30, 2019, 02:49:17 PM »
Fed does nothing, Dow jumps 500.


It begins:


Fair warning: I just pulled $60K out of an old 401(k) to roll it into my new plan. It'll take about 2 weeks to get the money re-invested. Expect a steep market runup over the next 2 weeks, followed by an unprecedented cratering.

LOL
ironically.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4258 on: February 02, 2019, 07:57:59 PM »
Happy Groundhog Day from the Tip Top Cafe


dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4259 on: February 04, 2019, 11:19:38 AM »
Happy Groundhog Day from the Tip Top Cafe

Winter top is in!

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4260 on: February 05, 2019, 11:44:36 AM »
Just checking in to note that the market is up 8.6% so far for 2019, and January just finished.  Surely this level of growth is unsustainable, and the market will come crashing back down in the coming days?

I'm pretty sure this means the top is in.

BicycleB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4261 on: February 05, 2019, 11:58:35 AM »
Well put, Sol.

Readers need to sell immediately. Or at least note the high water mark of their investment portfolios, aka today's values, so that they can properly mourn the upcoming stupendous losses.

Tyson

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4262 on: February 05, 2019, 12:12:31 PM »
S&P 500 on April 11, 2017 (Start of this Thread):

2357

S&P 500 today:

2728

So much topping!

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4263 on: February 05, 2019, 12:17:58 PM »
S&P 500 on April 11, 2017 (Start of this Thread):

2357

S&P 500 today:

2728

So much topping!

Mmmmm.... topping!


JLee

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4264 on: February 05, 2019, 02:23:11 PM »
Prepare for a new top, everyone! I expect it to arrive in about 3 weeks, as that is when my annual bonus arrives and gets invested!

ILikeDividends

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4265 on: February 05, 2019, 03:58:02 PM »
I am the expert in tops.  Nobody knows more about tops than me!



We are going to have a big beautiful top, and Mexico is going to pay for it!
« Last Edit: February 05, 2019, 04:19:46 PM by ILikeDividends »

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4266 on: February 05, 2019, 05:55:39 PM »
S&P 500 at 2737.. Surely must be the top..

Wait.. Trump is gonna speak... Definitely the top!...:)

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4267 on: February 06, 2019, 11:09:20 AM »
S&P 500 at 2737.. Surely must be the top..

Wait.. Trump is gonna speak... Definitely the top!...:)

This makes me wish we had the ability to upvote posts like in Reddit. 

Bateaux

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4268 on: February 07, 2019, 06:09:30 AM »
If the top is ever in, Mustacianism is dead.

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4269 on: February 07, 2019, 08:28:45 AM »
If the top is ever in, Mustacianism is dead.

Mustache top is in!


techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4270 on: February 07, 2019, 09:18:41 AM »
There will always be a bigger TOP!

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4271 on: February 07, 2019, 11:09:38 AM »
Well 2737 WAS the top.. I'm a freaking genius..:)

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4272 on: February 07, 2019, 12:15:57 PM »
Tip top

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4273 on: February 07, 2019, 01:10:06 PM »
If the top is ever in, Mustacianism is dead.

What do you mean "If"? Top is always in.

thorstach

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4274 on: February 07, 2019, 08:29:34 PM »
GOAT dead cat bounce top is in


JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4275 on: February 07, 2019, 11:33:54 PM »
GOAT dead cat bounce top is in



Inverse market/thorstach post test #93.  Betting it's a good day on Wall St. tomorrow...

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4276 on: February 08, 2019, 06:21:23 AM »
GOAT dead cat bounce top is in



Inverse market/thorstach post test #93.  Betting it's a good day on Wall St. tomorrow...

I hope not. My $60,000 rollover should get re-invested any day now. Hoping for the market to continue yesterday's slide until it hits the account...
« Last Edit: February 08, 2019, 07:57:51 AM by Mississippi Mudstache »

Maenad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4277 on: February 08, 2019, 07:18:53 AM »
Aw, how cute! The bot triggered again!

Monocle Money Mouth

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4278 on: February 08, 2019, 07:53:17 AM »
GOAT dead cat bounce top is in



Inverse market/thorstach post test #93.  Betting it's a good day on Wall St. tomorrow...

I hope not. My $$60,000 rollover should get re-invested any day now. Hoping for the market to continue yesterday's slide until it hits the account...

Nope. Im afraid I canít let that happen. My regular 401k contribution got yesterdayís price. It needs to promptly rebound to September 2018 highs.

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4279 on: February 08, 2019, 07:58:30 AM »
GOAT dead cat bounce top is in



Inverse market/thorstach post test #93.  Betting it's a good day on Wall St. tomorrow...

I hope not. My $60,000 rollover should get re-invested any day now. Hoping for the market to continue yesterday's slide until it hits the account...

Nope. Im afraid I canít let that happen. My regular 401k contribution got yesterdayís price. It needs to promptly rebound to September 2018 highs.



#tophat

merula

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4280 on: February 08, 2019, 08:37:00 AM »

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4281 on: February 08, 2019, 11:08:59 AM »
Top Impasse Quote!

 

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4282 on: February 08, 2019, 03:37:35 PM »
Inverse market/thorstach test failure, Top Is In, we're all doomed! 

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4283 on: February 08, 2019, 03:47:07 PM »
Inverse market/thorstach test failure, Top Is In, we're all doomed!

Failure?  This is confirmation!  Every time thorstach calls the top, the very next day is positive.  This is like the seventh time in this very thread that has happened.

I suspect that part of the problem is attributable to mean reversion.  Thorstach only calls tops retroactively, which mean it waits for at least two consecutive down days to establish a downward trend and project future losses, but market prices don't have momentum like that.  They bounce randomly around an average trendline by small amounts.  So if you only call when they're short term down, chances are better than average that they're about to go short term up.

That, or thorstach just has a truly uncanny ability to be wrong.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4284 on: February 08, 2019, 06:02:15 PM »
Inverse market/thorstach test failure, Top Is In, we're all doomed!

Failure?  This is confirmation!  Every time thorstach calls the top, the very next day is positive.  This is like the seventh time in this very thread that has happened.

I suspect that part of the problem is attributable to mean reversion.  Thorstach only calls tops retroactively, which mean it waits for at least two consecutive down days to establish a downward trend and project future losses, but market prices don't have momentum like that.  They bounce randomly around an average trendline by small amounts.  So if you only call when they're short term down, chances are better than average that they're about to go short term up.

That, or thorstach just has a truly uncanny ability to be wrong.

Too funny, I guess I accidentally looked at the Dow instead of the S&P500. 

soccerluvof4

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4285 on: February 09, 2019, 04:18:47 AM »
Till Monday! S&P held its ground should be interesting

thorstach

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JAYSLOL

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Juan Ponce de Leůn

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4288 on: February 12, 2019, 02:19:32 AM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/11/vanguard-cuts-expected-return-for-stock-market-over-the-next-decade.html

Yeah look m8, 'experts' can't even predict what will happen in the markets next month, let alone next decade.  Might as well get the opinion of a tradie it would be of the same value. 

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4289 on: February 12, 2019, 04:32:35 AM »
GOAT dead cat bounce top is in



Dearest guru, why donít your randomly drawn lines start in April 2017 when the top was in, per your original proclamation? Iím beginning to suspect I shouldnít follow your investment advice.

UnleashHell

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4290 on: February 12, 2019, 08:07:58 AM »


Dearest guru, why donít your randomly drawn lines start in April 2017 when the top was in, per your original proclamation? Iím beginning to suspect I shouldnít follow your investment advice.

NON BELIEVER!!!!

THE TOP IS IN!

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4291 on: February 12, 2019, 08:20:16 AM »


Dearest guru, why donít your randomly drawn lines start in April 2017 when the top was in, per your original proclamation? Iím beginning to suspect I shouldnít follow your investment advice.

NON BELIEVER!!!!

THE TOP IS IN!

Itís good to start your day with an affirmation like this. I woke up and, just for a moment, thought that the top might not be in. Then I came here and remembered that the top is, always has been, and always will be in.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4292 on: February 12, 2019, 09:51:28 AM »

Laserjet3051

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4293 on: February 12, 2019, 12:50:53 PM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/11/vanguard-cuts-expected-return-for-stock-market-over-the-next-decade.html

Thorstach, at first i gave you the benefit of the doubt. That is, that you could be some sort of market genius that has access to knowledge us mere mortals lack. But with your pathetic cnbc link above, it's crystal clear you are nothing more than a vapid troll.

Carry on.

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4294 on: February 12, 2019, 01:31:51 PM »
Folks, Top is definitely in now. Just look at it.

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4295 on: February 13, 2019, 02:28:36 PM »
GOAT dead cat bounce top is in



Inverse market/thorstach post test #93.  Betting it's a good day on Wall St. tomorrow...

I hope not. My $60,000 rollover should get re-invested any day now. Hoping for the market to continue yesterday's slide until it hits the account...

Money finally got invested in the new 401k. Sold on 1/30 for $66.85/share and reinvested on 2/12 for $68.64/share. So I lost 2.7% of growth on $60,000 - or $1600 - over two weeks. I will recover some of that on lower fees with the new 401k, but it'll take about a decade to break even.

TOP WAS NOT IN :(
« Last Edit: February 13, 2019, 05:31:19 PM by Mississippi Mudstache »

BicycleB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4296 on: February 13, 2019, 04:06:34 PM »
The top wasn't in??

Well, it is now.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4297 on: February 13, 2019, 07:05:01 PM »
Top is definitely in now!

Just look at the tip of the top.

watchitgrow

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4298 on: February 14, 2019, 08:34:15 AM »

pecunia

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4299 on: February 14, 2019, 12:58:10 PM »
Won't there always be new mountains to climb?

Isn't it the nature of man to evermore reach higher to the new frontier?

I say, nay, nay the top always seems within reach, but is still beyond our grasp.

Fear not, little investor, for there will be an ever brighter tomorrow, always the higher plateau.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!