Top is in

[toganet]

Fair warning: I just pulled $60K out of an old 401(k) to roll it into my new plan. It'll take about 2 weeks to get the money re-invested. Expect a steep market runup over the next 2 weeks, followed by an unprecedented cratering.

I know that feeling.

I transferred 300k last january from my old employer to the new one. had to be done by check. it was my new years resolution to get it done last year so i moved into action early jan. took 2 weeks from selling the old funds to buying the new ones.
missed the 150 point run up in the s&p. got reinvested just in time to see it drop 10%.
had I procrastinated by a couple of weeks (something I'm good at) I'd have pulled the money out at the top and reinvested after that big drop.

I (being the idiot i am) actually calculated that the poor timing of my fund movement cost me something like 27K compared to doing nothing. ( I didn't hit exactly the top and bottom last jan but it was close)
le sigh.

My employer changed HSA providers for this calendar year, and all assets were "liquidated" and the cash transferred to the new provider.  This resulted in about 10 days (!) of float, which doesn't seem to have cost me anything substantial, but I'm not willing to do the math to figure it out.

[Mississippi Mudstache]

Fair warning: I just pulled $60K out of an old 401(k) to roll it into my new plan. It'll take about 2 weeks to get the money re-invested. Expect a steep market runup over the next 2 weeks, followed by an unprecedented cratering.

I know that feeling.

I transferred 300k last january from my old employer to the new one. had to be done by check. it was my new years resolution to get it done last year so i moved into action early jan. took 2 weeks from selling the old funds to buying the new ones.
missed the 150 point run up in the s&p. got reinvested just in time to see it drop 10%.
had I procrastinated by a couple of weeks (something I'm good at) I'd have pulled the money out at the top and reinvested after that big drop.

I (being the idiot i am) actually calculated that the poor timing of my fund movement cost me something like 27K compared to doing nothing. ( I didn't hit exactly the top and bottom last jan but it was close)
le sigh.

Ouch! That's my biggest fear, but i'm working with 1/5 of what you transferred, so the damage would be lesser even if my timing ends up being bad. Two weeks of calm (or better yet, declining) markets would make me really happy right now. But in any case, I should make up any losses in the long run by getting my assets out of a crappy MassMutual 401(k) and getting it invested with Vanguard.

[UnleashHell]

Fair warning: I just pulled $60K out of an old 401(k) to roll it into my new plan. It'll take about 2 weeks to get the money re-invested. Expect a steep market runup over the next 2 weeks, followed by an unprecedented cratering.

I know that feeling.

I transferred 300k last january from my old employer to the new one. had to be done by check. it was my new years resolution to get it done last year so i moved into action early jan. took 2 weeks from selling the old funds to buying the new ones.
missed the 150 point run up in the s&p. got reinvested just in time to see it drop 10%.
had I procrastinated by a couple of weeks (something I'm good at) I'd have pulled the money out at the top and reinvested after that big drop.

I (being the idiot i am) actually calculated that the poor timing of my fund movement cost me something like 27K compared to doing nothing. ( I didn't hit exactly the top and bottom last jan but it was close)
le sigh.

Ouch! That's my biggest fear, but i'm working with 1/5 of what you transferred, so the damage would be lesser even if my timing ends up being bad. Two weeks of calm (or better yet, declining) markets would make me really happy right now. But in any case, I should make up any losses in the long run by getting my assets out of a crappy MassMutual 401(k) and getting it invested with Vanguard.

still worth doing. I just got unlucky and dropped back int he market when the top was in (keeping it on topic :D )

[PathtoFIRE]

So lost out on 1 day of market returns.

Yearly market returns lean heavily (and retrospectively) on just a few days throughout the year. From 1998-2017, missing the 5 best single days resulted in a 45% decline in total return over that 20 year period. So you really don't want to miss even a single day!

Or do you...During that same period, missing the 5 worst days resulted in a 71% increase in total return over 20 years. Missing the worst 40 days increased total return by 952%!*

https://www.ifa.com/12steps/step4/missing_the_best_and_worst_days/

In conclusion, the more you stay out of the market, the better your gains. [/s]



*Note, I just pulled this off the first hit I got on Google, I don't have any idea who IFA is or whether this analysis is even legitimate.

[solon]

Fed does nothing, Dow jumps 500.

[dragoncar]

So lost out on 1 day of market returns.

Yearly market returns lean heavily (and retrospectively) on just a few days throughout the year. From 1998-2017, missing the 5 best single days resulted in a 45% decline in total return over that 20 year period. So you really don't want to miss even a single day!

Or do you...During that same period, missing the 5 worst days resulted in a 71% increase in total return over 20 years. Missing the worst 40 days increased total return by 952%!*

https://www.ifa.com/12steps/step4/missing_the_best_and_worst_days/

In conclusion, the more you stay out of the market, the better your gains. [/s]



*Note, I just pulled this off the first hit I got on Google, I don't have any idea who IFA is or whether this analysis is even legitimate.

For index funds you could probably hedge against this pretty cheaply with options

[Mississippi Mudstache]

Fed does nothing, Dow jumps 500.

It begins:

Fair warning: I just pulled $60K out of an old 401(k) to roll it into my new plan. It'll take about 2 weeks to get the money re-invested. Expect a steep market runup over the next 2 weeks, followed by an unprecedented cratering.

[Mississippi Mudstache]

So lost out on 1 day of market returns.

Yearly market returns lean heavily (and retrospectively) on just a few days throughout the year. From 1998-2017, missing the 5 best single days resulted in a 45% decline in total return over that 20 year period. So you really don't want to miss even a single day!

Or do you...During that same period, missing the 5 worst days resulted in a 71% increase in total return over 20 years. Missing the worst 40 days increased total return by 952%!*

https://www.ifa.com/12steps/step4/missing_the_best_and_worst_days/

In conclusion, the more you stay out of the market, the better your gains. [/s]



*Note, I just pulled this off the first hit I got on Google, I don't have any idea who IFA is or whether this analysis is even legitimate.

For index funds you could probably hedge against this pretty cheaply with options

Probably not going to be doing anything other than waiting, but for the sake of enlightenment how exactly would you recommend protecting against a steep run-up in the market when you know you will have a significant percentage of your assets uninvested for a couple of weeks? Buying calls? I've never dabbled in options aside from selling a few covered calls several years ago.

[UnleashHell]

Fed does nothing, Dow jumps 500.

It begins:

Fair warning: I just pulled $60K out of an old 401(k) to roll it into my new plan. It'll take about 2 weeks to get the money re-invested. Expect a steep market runup over the next 2 weeks, followed by an unprecedented cratering.

LOL
ironically.

[JAYSLOL]

Happy Groundhog Day from the Tip Top Cafe

[dougules]

Happy Groundhog Day from the Tip Top Cafe

Winter top is in!

[sol]

Just checking in to note that the market is up 8.6% so far for 2019, and January just finished.  Surely this level of growth is unsustainable, and the market will come crashing back down in the coming days?

I'm pretty sure this means the top is in.

[BicycleB]

Well put, Sol.

Readers need to sell immediately. Or at least note the high water mark of their investment portfolios, aka today's values, so that they can properly mourn the upcoming stupendous losses.

[Tyson]

S&P 500 on April 11, 2017 (Start of this Thread):

2357

S&P 500 today:

2728

So much topping!

[solon]

S&P 500 on April 11, 2017 (Start of this Thread):

2357

S&P 500 today:

2728

So much topping!

Mmmmm.... topping!

[JLee]

Prepare for a new top, everyone! I expect it to arrive in about 3 weeks, as that is when my annual bonus arrives and gets invested!

[ILikeDividends]

I am the expert in tops.  Nobody knows more about tops than me!



We are going to have a big beautiful top, and Mexico is going to pay for it!

[Exflyboy]

S&P 500 at 2737.. Surely must be the top..

Wait.. Trump is gonna speak... Definitely the top!...:)

[dougules]

S&P 500 at 2737.. Surely must be the top..

Wait.. Trump is gonna speak... Definitely the top!...:)

This makes me wish we had the ability to upvote posts like in Reddit. 

[Bateaux]

If the top is ever in, Mustacianism is dead.

[Mississippi Mudstache]

If the top is ever in, Mustacianism is dead.

Mustache top is in!

[techwiz]

There will always be a bigger TOP!

[Exflyboy]

Well 2737 WAS the top.. I'm a freaking genius..:)

[2Birds1Stone]

Tip top

[DS]

If the top is ever in, Mustacianism is dead.

What do you mean "If"? Top is always in.

[thorstach]

GOAT dead cat bounce top is in

[JAYSLOL]

GOAT dead cat bounce top is in

Inverse market/thorstach post test #93.  Betting it's a good day on Wall St. tomorrow...

[Mississippi Mudstache]

GOAT dead cat bounce top is in

Inverse market/thorstach post test #93.  Betting it's a good day on Wall St. tomorrow...

I hope not. My $60,000 rollover should get re-invested any day now. Hoping for the market to continue yesterday's slide until it hits the account...

[Maenad]

Aw, how cute! The bot triggered again!

[mies]

GOAT dead cat bounce top is in

Inverse market/thorstach post test #93.  Betting it's a good day on Wall St. tomorrow...

I hope not. My $$60,000 rollover should get re-invested any day now. Hoping for the market to continue yesterday's slide until it hits the account...

Nope. Im afraid I can’t let that happen. My regular 401k contribution got yesterday’s price. It needs to promptly rebound to September 2018 highs.

[Mississippi Mudstache]

GOAT dead cat bounce top is in

Inverse market/thorstach post test #93.  Betting it's a good day on Wall St. tomorrow...

I hope not. My $60,000 rollover should get re-invested any day now. Hoping for the market to continue yesterday's slide until it hits the account...

Nope. Im afraid I can’t let that happen. My regular 401k contribution got yesterday’s price. It needs to promptly rebound to September 2018 highs.

#tophat

[merula]

#tophat

Ahem.

#TopCatTopHat

[techwiz]

Top Impasse Quote!

 

[JAYSLOL]

Inverse market/thorstach test failure, Top Is In, we're all doomed! 

[sol]

Inverse market/thorstach test failure, Top Is In, we're all doomed!

Failure?  This is confirmation!  Every time thorstach calls the top, the very next day is positive.  This is like the seventh time in this very thread that has happened.

I suspect that part of the problem is attributable to mean reversion.  Thorstach only calls tops retroactively, which mean it waits for at least two consecutive down days to establish a downward trend and project future losses, but market prices don't have momentum like that.  They bounce randomly around an average trendline by small amounts.  So if you only call when they're short term down, chances are better than average that they're about to go short term up.

That, or thorstach just has a truly uncanny ability to be wrong.

[JAYSLOL]

Inverse market/thorstach test failure, Top Is In, we're all doomed!

Failure?  This is confirmation!  Every time thorstach calls the top, the very next day is positive.  This is like the seventh time in this very thread that has happened.

I suspect that part of the problem is attributable to mean reversion.  Thorstach only calls tops retroactively, which mean it waits for at least two consecutive down days to establish a downward trend and project future losses, but market prices don't have momentum like that.  They bounce randomly around an average trendline by small amounts.  So if you only call when they're short term down, chances are better than average that they're about to go short term up.

That, or thorstach just has a truly uncanny ability to be wrong.

Too funny, I guess I accidentally looked at the Dow instead of the S&P500. 

[soccerluvof4]

Till Monday! S&P held its ground should be interesting

[thorstach]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/11/vanguard-cuts-expected-return-for-stock-market-over-the-next-decade.html

[JAYSLOL]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/11/vanguard-cuts-expected-return-for-stock-market-over-the-next-decade.html

But there IS an expected return... Top not in!

[Juan Ponce de León]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/11/vanguard-cuts-expected-return-for-stock-market-over-the-next-decade.html

Yeah look m8, 'experts' can't even predict what will happen in the markets next month, let alone next decade.  Might as well get the opinion of a tradie it would be of the same value. 

[aspiringnomad]

GOAT dead cat bounce top is in

Dearest guru, why don’t your randomly drawn lines start in April 2017 when the top was in, per your original proclamation? I’m beginning to suspect I shouldn’t follow your investment advice.

[UnleashHell]

Dearest guru, why don’t your randomly drawn lines start in April 2017 when the top was in, per your original proclamation? I’m beginning to suspect I shouldn’t follow your investment advice.

NON BELIEVER!!!!

THE TOP IS IN!

[Wintergreen78]

Dearest guru, why don’t your randomly drawn lines start in April 2017 when the top was in, per your original proclamation? I’m beginning to suspect I shouldn’t follow your investment advice.

NON BELIEVER!!!!

THE TOP IS IN!

It’s good to start your day with an affirmation like this. I woke up and, just for a moment, thought that the top might not be in. Then I came here and remembered that the top is, always has been, and always will be in.

[JAYSLOL]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/11/vanguard-cuts-expected-return-for-stock-market-over-the-next-decade.html

Oh, and inverse market/thorstach test #94 has been a success.  Inverse confirmed!

[Laserjet3051]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/11/vanguard-cuts-expected-return-for-stock-market-over-the-next-decade.html

Thorstach, at first i gave you the benefit of the doubt. That is, that you could be some sort of market genius that has access to knowledge us mere mortals lack. But with your pathetic cnbc link above, it's crystal clear you are nothing more than a vapid troll.

Carry on.

[dividendman]

Folks, Top is definitely in now. Just look at it.

[Mississippi Mudstache]

GOAT dead cat bounce top is in

Inverse market/thorstach post test #93.  Betting it's a good day on Wall St. tomorrow...

I hope not. My $60,000 rollover should get re-invested any day now. Hoping for the market to continue yesterday's slide until it hits the account...

Money finally got invested in the new 401k. Sold on 1/30 for $66.85/share and reinvested on 2/12 for $68.64/share. So I lost 2.7% of growth on $60,000 - or $1600 - over two weeks. I will recover some of that on lower fees with the new 401k, but it'll take about a decade to break even.

TOP WAS NOT IN :(

[BicycleB]

The top wasn't in??

Well, it is now.

[2Birds1Stone]

Top is definitely in now!

Just look at the tip of the top.

[watchitgrow]