Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 674110 times)

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4050 on: December 25, 2018, 04:54:01 AM »
I did some tax loss harvesting for the first time in my investing career, yesterday.

Just in those few minutes of shifting out of VTI/VXUS into SCHB, I lost $100 =P


EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4051 on: December 25, 2018, 06:39:03 AM »
Tax loss harvesting is a good idea, there should be plenty of opportunities to do that in 2019 but might be worth capturing it in 2018 if you need to offset gains.  In the meantime, I will be thinking about my willingness, need, and ability to take risk as I plan on how to invest (Bogleheads talk about this a lot).  2019 is going to be a time of opportunity, these windows open and close a lot more quickly than the steady climbs but it's nice to be in a position to take advantage.  So far, my willingness has only increased slightly - the narrative on the drop still needs to catch up with the market, but in a few months everyone will be talking about how 'obvious' this drop was in hindsight.  Need has increased only a little bit, I've lost quite a bit of money from the highs in my retirement accounts, but was way ahead of the game by the end of 2017.  I'm still comfortably FI.  Ability is high, I need to put the 401k money back in the market for the long term. 

So it all boils down to willingness at this point, and that is still pretty low.  Just going to be patient and revisit as things develop.  Always good to put this down on paper so I don't make purely emotional decisions. 

TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4052 on: December 25, 2018, 08:24:31 AM »
Re: Oil  prices are down,  upthread Sol comment about ^fedrates ~= down oil

Crude Oil & Natural Gas
Index    Units    Price    Change    %Change    Contract    Time (EST)    2 Day
CL1:COM WTI Crude Oil (Nymex)
   USD/bbl.    46.21    -1.96    -4.07%    Feb 2019    4:50 PM    
CO1:COM  Brent Crude (ICE)
   USD/bbl.    54.76    -2.48    -4.33%    Feb 2019    4:49 PM    


Gas prices are down, OK, but 8bucks difference but how is this not arbitraged away?

This price dislocation has existed for years.  I was puzzled at first as well.  Have studied the problem and it turns out there are major transportation bottlenecks that prevent the Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) ships from loading at US ports to export crude.  The crude exports from the US are being done on smaller and less efficient ships.  It will be a few more years yet until enough ports increase their depth and capacity to allow widescale VLCC loading in Houston and Corpus Christi and maybe some other places to arbitrage the dislocation away.  There will be maybe 4 ultra deepwater ports in the US max as there just isn't enough global demand for more to be profitable for municipalities to undertake construction costs.

Nope. The (current) WTI issue (price dislocation) is further upstream. WTI is priced at Cushing, OK - and there simply isn't enough capacity to move the oil from the Permian Basin (West Texas) to the Gulf refineries and shipping. Several pipelines coming into use over the next 2 years will ease it.  Shutting down coal power plants this year (mostly using Wyoming coal) helps a bit by easing railway congestion.

All the major ports are upgrading anyway. Texas is spending nearly a billion dollars* building a new, taller bridge** so that bigger ships can get into the Port of Corpus Christi. As you note, every port has major dredging plans. Corpus also has at least two additional oil export terminals planned outside the port proper.

*Including the 25 year "operate/maintain" portion and a reasonable guess on changeorders.

**There are other reasons to replace the bridge as well - the old one is a massive steel truss which requires a lot of ongoing maintenance. It is also far too steep for modern requirements and has a stupidly sharp turn at each end. The new one more logically ties into the Crosstown Expressway at I-37 instead of the dead end of I-37 in downtown proper.

WhiteTrashCash

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4053 on: December 25, 2018, 08:48:53 AM »
I am really curious how the kids feel about this bear market, because they've never experienced one before. There are adults who have never known anything but economic expansion before. It's interesting to think about, because the Great Recession is still vivid for the rest of us.

TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4054 on: December 25, 2018, 09:29:59 AM »
I am really curious how the kids feel about this bear market, because they've never experienced one before. There are adults who have never known anything but economic expansion before. It's interesting to think about, because the Great Recession is still vivid for the rest of us.

I'm lucky that I started early (though my high school investing was all liquidated in college) - I've had money in the market for plenty of crashes.  Plus I was heavy in tech for the 2000 crash.

thorstach

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4055 on: December 25, 2018, 10:14:08 AM »

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4056 on: December 25, 2018, 11:08:40 AM »

Threshkin

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4057 on: December 25, 2018, 12:50:15 PM »


....and today we have a bullish economy with record low unemployment.

TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4058 on: December 25, 2018, 02:03:06 PM »


....and today we have a bullish economy with record low unemployment.

Is he even trying anymore?

ysette9

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4059 on: December 25, 2018, 04:47:32 PM »
Being a couple of years from FI we are following the reverse equity glide path. I’ve been feeling like I want to be more in bonds to preserve our principle as we have more to lose now, so to speak with The Date coming up close. My gut wanted us to be in 40% bonds in August but our plan is to be 25% bonds in January and 40% in another year and a half. Damn a pre-decided plan and not my feelings. ;-)

I hear what whitetrashcan is saying. I was invested and continued to invest during the Great recession. It was early in my career though so I just stopped looking st my 401k statements and otherwise did nothing different. I expect it to feel different now, though I still plan on doing nothing different.

economist

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4060 on: December 25, 2018, 04:59:22 PM »
I am really curious how the kids feel about this bear market, because they've never experienced one before. There are adults who have never known anything but economic expansion before. It's interesting to think about, because the Great Recession is still vivid for the rest of us.

I graduated in 2013 so this is my first bear market where I have any real skin in the game, although not my first correction (and so far this is barely a bear market so it "feels" like a correction). My strategy is simple: "Just don't look." I usually update my Net Worth in a little notepad every few months (not a very sophisticated or regular system) but I just put a little note to my future self there explaining that I am not updating it because the market is down. Even though I know how far down the markets have gone, I'm not looking at my actual account balances until the market recovers. That might be a few weeks or a few years but it doesn't really make much difference to me at this stage.

Nothing has changed with my asset allocation (100% equities, 50/50 US and International) or 401k contributions.

35andFI

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4061 on: December 25, 2018, 05:30:14 PM »
I am really curious how the kids feel about this bear market, because they've never experienced one before. There are adults who have never known anything but economic expansion before. It's interesting to think about, because the Great Recession is still vivid for the rest of us.

I’m 27 and very excited. I hope it continues to drop (while I am contributing) as long as I don’t lose my job.
I am contributing around $3,262.50/mo into the market.
« Last Edit: December 25, 2018, 05:33:30 PM by 35andFI »

Steeze

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4062 on: December 25, 2018, 05:51:59 PM »
31 here, first drop with anything notable to lose, just started aggressively investing maybe 2 years ago. I have 2 yrs of retirement budget invested. For me, a bear market now is a best case scenario. I am excited for the drop, and can only hope that prices will stay down for a while, longer the better. I do fear for my coworkers, while they donít have much invested, they are almost certain to sell for a loss right now. I bet robin hood and betterment accounts owned by the under 30 crowd are being emptied right now.

mies

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4063 on: December 26, 2018, 12:03:00 AM »
31 here, first drop with anything notable to lose, just started aggressively investing maybe 2 years ago. I have 2 yrs of retirement budget invested. For me, a bear market now is a best case scenario. I am excited for the drop, and can only hope that prices will stay down for a while, longer the better. I do fear for my coworkers, while they donít have much invested, they are almost certain to sell for a loss right now. I bet robin hood and betterment accounts owned by the under 30 crowd are being emptied right now.

There are plenty of people over 30 that are shitting their pants and selling right now too. Age does not equal wisdom or knowledge of technical details in pretty much any subject. Iíve gotten blank stares from people who have been investing through 401k plans for decades when I mention expense ratios. Most people, regardless of age, are ruled by their emotions and have no idea how to handle their money.

Iíll end my misanthropic rant there :)

You are correct about this being a good time to buy if you are still accumulating assets.
« Last Edit: December 26, 2018, 02:32:57 PM by mies »

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4064 on: December 26, 2018, 02:19:12 AM »
Early 30s here, but only investing for the last 3 years Post-MMM.  Pre-MMM I had essentially no financial literacy, although I saved and never took on debt, I didn't have anything invested in the market for 2008 so this would be the first time I'm exposed to a potentially major sell off.  So far all-good, I'm glad it's happening so soon in my investing timeline.  Long live the GOAT MOAT!

BobTheBuilder

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4065 on: December 26, 2018, 04:05:46 AM »
32 here and that bear took a dump on my excel sheet (8k invested before drop, which is almost nothing compared to most of you). If the market would have stayed flat, my net worth would be positive by now, but I am still a bit in the red because of those paper losses. However, my real investing starts exactly in January, when I go from 32h work week without bonuses to 40h work week with bonuses (most likely 10%). So although the world once agains looks like it has gone mad, I will stick to the plan: increase investing in 2019. I will however do a tax loss sell on one position (1k Ä) on the 27th of Dec. I am ready to increase contributions further in the second half of 2019 when my EF reached the desired 2019 level.




BicycleB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4066 on: December 26, 2018, 07:30:08 AM »

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4067 on: December 26, 2018, 08:52:11 AM »
32 here and that bear took a dump on my excel sheet (8k invested before drop, which is almost nothing compared to most of you). If the market would have stayed flat, my net worth would be positive by now, but I am still a bit in the red because of those paper losses. However, my real investing starts exactly in January, when I go from 32h work week without bonuses to 40h work week with bonuses (most likely 10%). So although the world once agains looks like it has gone mad, I will stick to the plan: increase investing in 2019. I will however do a tax loss sell on one position (1k Ä) on the 27th of Dec. I am ready to increase contributions further in the second half of 2019 when my EF reached the desired 2019 level.

You should celebrate.  If it stays down your 2019 money will go that much further.  Interestingly enough I just had the same conversation with one of our techs who was mildly disappointed to see her 401k value go down.  She's still got a few years until retirement, so I think I opened her eyes that it's actually a good thing for her. 

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4068 on: December 26, 2018, 08:57:20 AM »
Do we still call them "paper losses" even though we don't get paper statements anymore?  Are they "pixel losses" now?

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4069 on: December 26, 2018, 09:01:06 AM »
BTW, the S&P 500 is now below its level at thorstache's first call to fear.  He was right; it just took a year and a half for the market to realize it. 

PathtoFIRE

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4070 on: December 26, 2018, 09:28:25 AM »
BTW, the S&P 500 is now below its level at thorstache's first call to fear.  He was right; it just took a year and a half for the market to realize it. 

I'm too lazy to actually look, but if you include dividends, those who held after that date may still be up compared to anyone who went straight to cash (obviously if these hypothetical people saved in something other than cash or broad-market stock indexes, they might have done better than 2% annualized dividends). Still don't think you probably have come out much ahead if any if you did heed thorstach, but would like to point out that 1) it actually wasnt the top, that didn't come until a few months ago, and 2) you've got to really make 2 market timing calls, so even if you give thorstach the benefit of the doubt on this first one, we need to see the second call to get back in before we can say that the original call was wise.

partgypsy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4071 on: December 26, 2018, 09:34:35 AM »
If someone is 10 years away from retirement, with retirement being possibly another 20+ years, continue on as usual?

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4072 on: December 26, 2018, 09:49:39 AM »
BTW, the S&P 500 is now below its level at thorstache's first call to fear.  He was right; it just took a year and a half for the market to realize it. 

I'm too lazy to actually look, but if you include dividends, those who held after that date may still be up compared to anyone who went straight to cash (obviously if these hypothetical people saved in something other than cash or broad-market stock indexes, they might have done better than 2% annualized dividends). Still don't think you probably have come out much ahead if any if you did heed thorstach, but would like to point out that 1) it actually wasnt the top, that didn't come until a few months ago, and 2) you've got to really make 2 market timing calls, so even if you give thorstach the benefit of the doubt on this first one, we need to see the second call to get back in before we can say that the original call was wise.

All irrelevant.  Top is in.  Don't doubt thorstach.

BobTheBuilder

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4073 on: December 26, 2018, 09:52:24 AM »
32 here and that bear took a dump on my excel sheet (8k invested before drop, which is almost nothing compared to most of you). If the market would have stayed flat, my net worth would be positive by now, but I am still a bit in the red because of those paper losses. However, my real investing starts exactly in January, when I go from 32h work week without bonuses to 40h work week with bonuses (most likely 10%). So although the world once agains looks like it has gone mad, I will stick to the plan: increase investing in 2019. I will however do a tax loss sell on one position (1k Ä) on the 27th of Dec. I am ready to increase contributions further in the second half of 2019 when my EF reached the desired 2019 level.

You should celebrate.  If it stays down your 2019 money will go that much further.  Interestingly enough I just had the same conversation with one of our techs who was mildly disappointed to see her 401k value go down.  She's still got a few years until retirement, so I think I opened her eyes that it's actually a good thing for her.

Yeah, my cortex is celebrating indeed, and the lizard brain is a bit upset about my "pixel loss" (yes we should call it pixel loss) which moves my positive networth to January or February :-D I remember the 2008 crash and the euro debt crisis (German here), which happend at the beginning of my university studies. As I was poor student, my concern was only to paying rent and I knew very little of the stock market back. I was also lucky and never unemployed during that time.

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4074 on: December 26, 2018, 10:09:03 AM »
BTW, the S&P 500 is now below its level at thorstache's first call to fear.  He was right; it just took a year and a half for the market to realize it.

Even a stopped clock...  In this case the clock had to wait over a year for the world to come around. 

If I call "bottom is in" today and it take 18 more months for the market to turn upwards again, can I claim victory too?

Last I checked, thorstach was still calling the top, as of last month.  Are we still at the top?  Or is that just supposed to be an observation that market is not currently at an all-time high?  That doesn't seem terribly predictive, if it's just an observation about today's prices compared to some historical price.  That doesn't tell me anything about tomorrow's price.

In related news, this morning's financial news has been hilarious.  First it was "markets stage a comeback from disastrous holiday season" because it was up like 1.5% in the first hour, then it fell into the red and the headlines were changed to "market slide continues" and now it's up almost 2% again.  At least this time the headlines are more tentative about the bounce than they were earlier today.  I love crazy volatile days, watching the financial news turn itself inside out to explain market gyrations that make no sense.  Nobody has any idea what's going to happen over the next hour, much less over the next month.

I almost feel bad for all of the people (including some in this very thread) who tried to tax loss harvest at the end of December and are currently sitting out of the market for today's apparent rebound.  Maybe it will all work out for the best, but anyone who's out today is going to have to overcome a 2.5% 5% penalty (plus trading costs) for having missed today's little mini-bump.
« Last Edit: December 26, 2018, 06:53:19 PM by sol »

Maenad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4075 on: December 26, 2018, 11:10:22 AM »

Is he even trying anymore?

Doubt it. Even Wikipedia lists about 7 possible causes, plus worsening due to the gold standard, tariffs, and some banking crises. I think the Dust Bowl was in there somewhere too. The insipid quote from thorstach is only a possible cause for a market crash, which is not at all the same thing, and doesn't even mention the rampant margin buying that was going on at the time.

FerrumB5

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4076 on: December 26, 2018, 11:20:50 AM »
Because I missed Monday's market closure for Xmas by few minutes, I have to take a possible penalty of 2+% at today's VTSAX price. Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah! :)

FIRE@50

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4077 on: December 26, 2018, 11:28:58 AM »
If someone is 10 years away from retirement, with retirement being possibly another 20+ years, continue on as usual?
Yup

markbike528CBX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4078 on: December 26, 2018, 12:04:09 PM »
If someone is 10 years away from retirement, with retirement being possibly another 20+ years, continue on as usual?
Yup
Yup, yep, yassa, yes, h3&& yeah!
And....
Aug 9, 2011, 02:21pm
Bogle To Investors: "Don't Do Something, Stand There!"
Chris Barth. --- Forbes Staff

If that isn't convincing enough,  consider the wise words of the Sesame Street yip yip Martians
Yip yip yip oh huh
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dhKhGyUnc2E

If you feel the need to ante up
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=e3N8ZW6fCa4

maizeman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4079 on: December 26, 2018, 12:13:19 PM »
If someone is 10 years away from retirement, with retirement being possibly another 20+ years, continue on as usual?

Exactly so. Back in the summer I was hoping to hit FI (if not FIRE) by this coming spring, and that's what I'm doing.

ClutchBeta

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4080 on: December 26, 2018, 12:51:59 PM »
I am really curious how the kids feel about this bear market, because they've never experienced one before. There are adults who have never known anything but economic expansion before. It's interesting to think about, because the Great Recession is still vivid for the rest of us.

31 here, investing since 2010. I did a little bit of harmless market timing by rebalancing today, but I was due for it anyway, and my IPS allows me to choose December or January for tax flexibility. I don't think this will be psychologically difficult until I'm looking at a net loss over an entire 10+ year investing career.

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4081 on: December 26, 2018, 01:59:10 PM »
Guess the holiday sale is over.*


*For at least one day.

marty998

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4082 on: December 26, 2018, 02:10:59 PM »
BTW, the S&P 500 is now below its level at thorstache's first call to fear.  He was right; it just took a year and a half for the market to realize it.

Even a stopped clock...  In this case the clock had to wait over a year for the world to come around. 

If I call "bottom is in" today and it take 18 more months for the market to turn upwards again, can I claim victory too?

Last I checked, thorstach was still calling the top, as of last month.  Are we still at the top?  Or is that just supposed to be an observation that market is not currently at an all-time high?  That doesn't seem terribly predictive, if it's just an observation about today's prices compared to some historical price.  That doesn't tell me anything about tomorrow's price.

In related news, this morning's financial news has been hilarious.  First it was "markets stage a comeback from disastrous holiday season" because it was up like 1.5% in the first hour, then it fell into the red and the headlines were changed to "market slide continues" and now it's up almost 2% again.  At least this time the headlines are more tentative about the bounce than they were earlier today.  I love crazy volatile days, watching the financial news turn itself inside out to explain market gyrations that make no sense.  Nobody has any idea what's going to happen over the next hour, much less over the next month.

I almost feel bad for all of the people (including some in this very thread) who tried to tax loss harvest at the end of December and are currently sitting out of the market for today's apparent rebound.  Maybe it will all work out for the best, but anyone who's out today is going to have to overcome a 2.5% penalty (plus trading costs) for having missed today's little mini-bump.

Indices are up 5% now lol.


JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4083 on: December 26, 2018, 02:32:39 PM »
Guess the holiday sale is over.*


*For at least one day.

Damn it!  Boxing Day is supposed to mean sales!  What the hell is this market rebound nonsense?

WhiteTrashCash

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4084 on: December 26, 2018, 02:38:32 PM »
Thank God for the 5% bounce with the S&P 500 today. My Vanguard accounts were down to only 14% growth after the Christmas Eve slaughter. That was a close one.

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4085 on: December 26, 2018, 02:45:49 PM »
It's almost as if we can't predict the day to day movement of the markets!

ILikeDividends

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4086 on: December 26, 2018, 03:50:13 PM »
It's almost as if we can't predict the day to day movement of the markets!
I can predict the day to day movement of the markets.  But I'm starting to think the market just doesn't care about my predictions at all.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4087 on: December 27, 2018, 11:58:53 AM »
I almost feel bad for all of the people (including some in this very thread) who tried to tax loss harvest at the end of December and are currently sitting out of the market for today's apparent rebound.  Maybe it will all work out for the best, but anyone who's out today is going to have to overcome a 2.5% 5% penalty (plus trading costs) for having missed today's little mini-bump.

Just wanted to point out that you can Tax Loss Harvest without needing to be out of the market for any appreciable time, you just sell one asset and buy something with the proceeds that is not considered non-identical.  Physician on Fire and Bogleheads had good info on it recently.

Quote
TLH is the process of selling shares of an asset at a loss. It is typically paired with the simultaneous or subsequent purchase of a similar but non-identical asset.

The process only works in a taxable account, a.k.a. brokerage account. Making a similar trade in a 401(k), IRA, or other tax-advantaged retirement account will not give you a tax benefit, but you can create an inadvertent wash sale in those accounts, reducing the benefit of your TLH efforts in the brokerage account.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4088 on: December 27, 2018, 02:31:57 PM »
Man, this dead cat is bouncing hard!

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4089 on: December 27, 2018, 03:34:07 PM »
Man, this dead cat is bouncing hard!

After the largest point gain in history yesterday, today the market went red and gave back about 60% of yesterday's historic gains.  Just when you thought the universe might sort of make sense again, in the final hour of trading the Dow put on 900 points, and finished the day up more than 1%.

Collective percentage increase since yesterday's low is roughly 6.5%.  Collective percentage loss for all of 2018 is roughly 6.8%.  In other words, the market has earned back approximately half of the year's losses in the last 28 hours.  None of this makes any sense.  What will tomorrow bring?

How are all of you market timers enjoying this little wiggle?  Made any good money this week?

Steeze

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4090 on: December 27, 2018, 04:52:44 PM »
So many cats were sacrificed, and bounced, to honor the Top! Long live the Top! https://goo.gl/images/JouERc

Failed at posting that pic.

MissNancyPryor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4091 on: December 27, 2018, 05:40:24 PM »
Man, this dead cat is bouncing hard!


How are all of you market timers enjoying this little wiggle?  Made any good money this week?

A friend's husband gave up working in home building and began day trading (something about a back injury).  He quickly lost all his chips and had to ante up to fill his trading account again.  That was in SEPTEMBER. 

I would think he is piddling down his leg at this point with the ups and downs and wild swings.  Those events should be profitable to the day trader but it is quite rare to be able to get in front of any of it when you are a small time gambler and the market moves 800 points within the final hour of trading.     


Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4092 on: December 27, 2018, 08:19:54 PM »
How are all of you market timers enjoying this little wiggle?  Made any good money this week?
Not so much. Over the weekend I thought I'd do some penalty-free fund switching since things were down. The sell order completed the 24th. Got back today to see how things were doing, and it turns out there will actually be a pretty big penalty. Note to self: buying is good, selling gets you in trouble.

Fortunately, make enough calls and you will always be right, if only for forum cred:
Hey, guys! Top is in. Today. I'm calling it. :P
I'm calling the bottom. April 13th. The S&P will never go below that in our lifetimes if you reinvested dividends.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4093 on: December 27, 2018, 11:32:58 PM »

How are all of you market timers enjoying this little wiggle?  Made any good money this week?

I've already made billions in hypothetical options

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4094 on: December 27, 2018, 11:37:28 PM »

How are all of you market timers enjoying this little wiggle?  Made any good money this week?

I've already made billions in hypothetical options

I've already got billions of choices of optional hypotheticals

BobTheBuilder

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4095 on: December 28, 2018, 04:03:57 AM »
I almost feel bad for all of the people (including some in this very thread) who tried to tax loss harvest at the end of December and are currently sitting out of the market for today's apparent rebound.  Maybe it will all work out for the best, but anyone who's out today is going to have to overcome a 2.5% 5% penalty (plus trading costs) for having missed today's little mini-bump.

Just wanted to point out that you can Tax Loss Harvest without needing to be out of the market for any appreciable time, you just sell one asset and buy something with the proceeds that is not considered non-identical.  Physician on Fire and Bogleheads had good info on it recently.

Quote
TLH is the process of selling shares of an asset at a loss. It is typically paired with the simultaneous or subsequent purchase of a similar but non-identical asset.

The process only works in a taxable account, a.k.a. brokerage account. Making a similar trade in a 401(k), IRA, or other tax-advantaged retirement account will not give you a tax benefit, but you can create an inadvertent wash sale in those accounts, reducing the benefit of your TLH efforts in the brokerage account.

Excatly. What I sold was a silver certificate (after some market panic gains, but still in the red) which I do not want to keep and have no plan on repurchasing for 2019, even if it looks now like the silver market could go up considerably. It was meant as a diversifier, but the market is really too small and seems rigged to me. If it is not productive and possibly rigged, it cannot act as a diversifier. Also, I do not need much diversification from stocks if I have the cash flow to stomach all frequent mishaps. Like car problems. And now I do have the cash flow and can get to work by train. For me 2019 is 100% stocks, EF increase and debt repayment as per investment statement. That is low risk to me, what else would you need?

Cabaka

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4096 on: December 28, 2018, 10:19:50 AM »
Man, this dead cat is bouncing hard!

After the largest point gain in history yesterday, today the market went red and gave back about 60% of yesterday's historic gains.  Just when you thought the universe might sort of make sense again, in the final hour of trading the Dow put on 900 points, and finished the day up more than 1%.

Collective percentage increase since yesterday's low is roughly 6.5%.  Collective percentage loss for all of 2018 is roughly 6.8%.  In other words, the market has earned back approximately half of the year's losses in the last 28 hours.  None of this makes any sense.  What will tomorrow bring?

How are all of you market timers enjoying this little wiggle?  Made any good money this week?

that loss is only relevant if you only evaluate  your investments on January 1st, many do; but I doubt this board does. still down 16% from the top of less than 3 months ago and the 50 day is below the 100, 200 and 300 day now; that's a helluva lot of resistance with fib retracement levels of 2515, 2585 and 2615; I seriously doubt it gets to 2615 before it heads lower given the fed is still rasing rates and it and the ecb are tightening monetary policy.

the 1000 point rally and 650 decline are more indicative of a bear mkt, not a bull mkt.

I wholly agree that you cannot time the mkt, I never would have thought it would have it 20% down already; but given what I have typed above it is more likely to be 25% down than 10% or even over the next 12 months.

and despite your gains since 2009, you have no idea if it will repeat that after this correction; more than likely it will not as the debtload to raise asset prices again will have diminishing returns. china's stock mkts never recovered 100% from the 2008 crash. there is no guarantee our recovery from this correction this time doesn't follow something like china and not make news highs especially with the fed stepping aside.

markbike528CBX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4097 on: December 28, 2018, 10:32:28 AM »
that loss is only relevant if you only evaluate  your investments on January 1st, many do; but I doubt this board does. still down 16% from the top of less than 3 months ago and the 50 day is below the 100, 200 and 300 day now; that's a helluva lot of resistance with fib retracement levels of 2515, 2585 and 2615;.....snip....

Thorstasch?

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4098 on: December 28, 2018, 12:38:46 PM »
Triple Top is in confirmed just cat bounces from here on out.

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4099 on: December 28, 2018, 01:10:58 PM »




How many cat bounces will there be? Is this the top of the cat bounces?