Top is in

[Glenstache]

70P 12 1N

I prefer  sprite to 7up

[GuitarStv]

70P 12 1N

I prefer  sprite to 7up

Nah, gotta go with Mountain Dew.  It has the fresh neon glow of a healthier drink.

[Wintergreen78]

70P 12 1N

I prefer  sprite to 7up

Nah, gotta go with Mountain Dew.  It has the fresh neon glow of a healthier drink.

Coca Cola makes a better rust remover though

[secondcor521]

Well the VIX is above 15, so I guess that means the XIV is breaking down.

[aboatguy]

I may try to catch a couple falling knives this week.... Top was in.....

So, uh, how's that going...

Not as well as I thought!  However, Top was in and I have a bunch (for me) or limit orders that  I believe will be filled soon.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

I may try to catch a couple falling knives this week.... Top was in.....

So, uh, how's that going...

Not as well as I thought!  However, Top was in and I have a bunch (for me) or limit orders that  I believe will be filled soon.

Believe in the Top and the top will believe in you, that's my mantra.  I wake up every morning believing that the Top Is In.

[vand]

Sentiment Gauges have flipped to bearish very quickly.
Good chance we are due for the traditional pre-Christmas stock rally.

https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/peacockbullbear.pdf

[ysette9]

I’d like to state for the record that the top will be in sometime around the end of December or the beginning of January.

Reason: My husband quits his job at the end of December.

Track record: I predicted on this thread that the top would be in around when I quit my job on 13 March 2020. You can all bask in the accuracy of my last prediction.

[ChpBstrd]

Sentiment Gauges have flipped to bearish very quickly.
Good chance we are due for the traditional pre-Christmas stock rally.

https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/peacockbullbear.pdf

I agree. The time to buy is Friday morning just after the super scary November inflation numbers are posted. https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm

Also, very early reports suggest the Omicron variant may be the long-predicted less-lethal/more-spread mutation of COVID-19: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fauci-says-early-reports-about-omicron-variant-are-encouraging-01638738888?mod=home-page

I mean, the top was clearly in. This is a dead-cat play.

[JoePublic3.14]

I’d like to state for the record that the top will be in sometime around the end of December or the beginning of January.

Reason: My husband quits his job at the end of December.

Track record: I predicted on this thread that the top would be in around when I quit my job on 13 March 2020. You can all bask in the accuracy of my last prediction.

I am basking in those predictions like in the pictures I saw of the eclipse watchers in Antarctica this morning.

Solar top is in.

[JAYSLOL]

I’d like to state for the record that the top will be in sometime around the end of December or the beginning of January.

Reason: My husband quits his job at the end of December.

Track record: I predicted on this thread that the top would be in around when I quit my job on 13 March 2020. You can all bask in the accuracy of my last prediction.

I am basking in those predictions like in the pictures I saw of the eclipse watchers in Antarctica this morning.

Solar top is in.

This guy’s got the right idea

[scottish]

70P 12 1N

I prefer  sprite to 7up

Nah, gotta go with Mountain Dew.  It has the fresh neon glow of a healthier drink.

Go with the real thing.

[G-dog]

Signal top might be in https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-treasuries-saw-largest-weekly-inflows-more-than-year-bofa-2021-12-03/

Of course, this is from BoA, a big part of the housing crash due to predatory lending, etc. (aka, consider the source).

[PDXTabs]

Signal top might be in https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-treasuries-saw-largest-weekly-inflows-more-than-year-bofa-2021-12-03/

Of course, this is from BoA, a big part of the housing crash due to predatory lending, etc. (aka, consider the source).

It's easy to call the top when you caused it.

[MissNancyPryor]

Did you know that if you rearrange the letters in

"Omicron"


it spells



"The Top is In"

[ChpBstrd]

Sentiment Gauges have flipped to bearish very quickly.
Good chance we are due for the traditional pre-Christmas stock rally.

https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/peacockbullbear.pdf

I agree. The time to buy is Friday morning just after the super scary November inflation numbers are posted. https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm

Also, very early reports suggest the Omicron variant may be the long-predicted less-lethal/more-spread mutation of COVID-19: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fauci-says-early-reports-about-omicron-variant-are-encouraging-01638738888?mod=home-page

I mean, the top was clearly in. This is a dead-cat play.

Today is the first time I've ever "made" $65,000 in a day. I sold my S&P index funds yesterday and went all-in with UPRO and TQQQ, all in the hopes of catching "the top", which is NOW in.

Hands in the air!!!!

[svosavvy]

I don't feel like the Evergrande technical default unfolding is a Lehman moment, but, it's hard to be a permabull here.  Picking up some SDS for a short term trade. 

[Monocle Money Mouth]

I don't feel like the Evergrande technical default unfolding is a Lehman moment, but, it's hard to be a permabull here.  Picking up some SDS for a short term trade.

I'm not sure I follow. Are you saying the top is in?

[MrGreen]

Happy Highday Friday, everyone!

[Glenstache]

I don't feel like the Evergrande technical default unfolding is a Lehman moment, but, it's hard to be a permabull here.  Picking up some SDS for a short term trade.

I'm not sure I follow. Are you saying the top is in?

Sure looks like it's time for the top to be in!

[talltexan]

I bought me some put options...

Oh, they were put options on $UVXY.

[ChpBstrd]

I bought me some put options...

Oh, they were put options on $UVXY.

I give you the same congratulations I sent my friend who bought a brand new Jeep.

[talltexan]

Your friend's brand new jeep was probably a larger expense*

*Sources tell me these don't depreciate very much, and today's market is wild from everything I see

[aboatguy]

I may try to catch a couple falling knives this week.... Top was in.....

So, uh, how's that going...

Not as well as I thought!  However, Top was in and I have a bunch (for me) or limit orders that  I believe will be filled soon.

  All 11 SP 500 sectors fall at the open.
 DOW  and NASDAQ are falling too.

My outstanding limit orders may be filled by Christmas.

TOP was in

[PDXTabs]

TOP was in

Of course it was, it's always been in.

[vand]

Are we into the slow grind?

It has been almost 21 months, or 420 trading days since the market bottomed on March 23rd 2020 with the VTI hitting a price of ~110 on this date.

Since then, VTI it has returned a stunning 110% off its nadir, currently priced at ~231

90% of that return happened in the first 13 months, with VTI first reaching ~218 in April 2021, 13 months after the bottom
The last 10% of the total return since March 2020 (218 -> 231) has taken the last 9 months to be delivered.

During this time inflation has arguably halved that nominal 10% down to 5% in real terms.

Its possible these last 9 months are a preview of the next 9 years, as the market enters a period of lower than average returns to balance out the above average returns that it has delivered in the last 12 years.

[ChpBstrd]

Its possible these last 9 months are a preview of the next 9 years, as the market enters a period of lower than average returns to balance out the above average returns that it has delivered in the last 12 years.

Either that or producers and retailers raise their prices and profits. Wages go up. Consumer spending goes up. Stock prices rise.

E.g. Company XYZ has earnings of $1/share and a PE of 25. Their earnings are based on selling things for $10 that they produce for $9. Inflation causes all prices to increase 10%. Now they are selling things for $11 that they produce for $9.90. Earnings rise to $1.10 per share. Their PE stays unchanged and their stock price goes from $25 to $27.50, an increase of 10%.

Actually it's better than that because XYZ is 60% capitalized by debt locked in for the next 5 years at a 3% annual interest rate. The owners of those bonds take a NFL punt kick to the crotch, while stockholders enjoy the earnings tailwind of borrowing at deeply negative real interest rates. Because the cost of debt payments are nominally locked in, they become a smaller and smaller part of the overall cost of production as everything else rises. This is a roundabout way of saying the cost of production does not go from $9 to $9.90, because the interest expense does not rise. Maybe in XYZ's example it goes from $9 to $9.75? That would mean earnings rise $1.25 instead of $1.10, an increase of 25% which translates to the stock price.

It could be even better than that if XYZ's consumers have locked in low rates on their house and car loans. When they get a 10% raise, the payments on their biggest purchases stay the same, giving them more discretionary income to waste on crap from XYZ. Thus, XYZ earns a lot more sales with a profit of a lot more per sale than they did prior to the inflation.

Bond top is in.

[vand]

Its possible these last 9 months are a preview of the next 9 years, as the market enters a period of lower than average returns to balance out the above average returns that it has delivered in the last 12 years.

Either that or producers and retailers raise their prices and profits. Wages go up. Consumer spending goes up. Stock prices rise.

E.g. Company XYZ has earnings of $1/share and a PE of 25. Their earnings are based on selling things for $10 that they produce for $9. Inflation causes all prices to increase 10%. Now they are selling things for $11 that they produce for $9.90. Earnings rise to $1.10 per share. Their PE stays unchanged and their stock price goes from $25 to $27.50, an increase of 10%.

Actually it's better than that because XYZ is 60% capitalized by debt locked in for the next 5 years at a 3% annual interest rate. The owners of those bonds take a NFL punt kick to the crotch, while stockholders enjoy the earnings tailwind of borrowing at deeply negative real interest rates. Because the cost of debt payments are nominally locked in, they become a smaller and smaller part of the overall cost of production as everything else rises. This is a roundabout way of saying the cost of production does not go from $9 to $9.90, because the interest expense does not rise. Maybe in XYZ's example it goes from $9 to $9.75? That would mean earnings rise $1.25 instead of $1.10, an increase of 25% which translates to the stock price.

It could be even better than that if XYZ's consumers have locked in low rates on their house and car loans. When they get a 10% raise, the payments on their biggest purchases stay the same, giving them more discretionary income to waste on crap from XYZ. Thus, XYZ earns a lot more sales with a profit of a lot more per sale than they did prior to the inflation.

Bond top is in.

If it was that easy then surely everyone would just do it! 

[Roland of Gilead]

I asked my cat if the top was in, got this:

[Wolfpack Mustachian]

Its possible these last 9 months are a preview of the next 9 years, as the market enters a period of lower than average returns to balance out the above average returns that it has delivered in the last 12 years.

Either that or producers and retailers raise their prices and profits. Wages go up. Consumer spending goes up. Stock prices rise.

E.g. Company XYZ has earnings of $1/share and a PE of 25. Their earnings are based on selling things for $10 that they produce for $9. Inflation causes all prices to increase 10%. Now they are selling things for $11 that they produce for $9.90. Earnings rise to $1.10 per share. Their PE stays unchanged and their stock price goes from $25 to $27.50, an increase of 10%.

Actually it's better than that because XYZ is 60% capitalized by debt locked in for the next 5 years at a 3% annual interest rate. The owners of those bonds take a NFL punt kick to the crotch, while stockholders enjoy the earnings tailwind of borrowing at deeply negative real interest rates. Because the cost of debt payments are nominally locked in, they become a smaller and smaller part of the overall cost of production as everything else rises. This is a roundabout way of saying the cost of production does not go from $9 to $9.90, because the interest expense does not rise. Maybe in XYZ's example it goes from $9 to $9.75? That would mean earnings rise $1.25 instead of $1.10, an increase of 25% which translates to the stock price.

It could be even better than that if XYZ's consumers have locked in low rates on their house and car loans. When they get a 10% raise, the payments on their biggest purchases stay the same, giving them more discretionary income to waste on crap from XYZ. Thus, XYZ earns a lot more sales with a profit of a lot more per sale than they did prior to the inflation.

Bond top is in.

If it was that easy then surely everyone would just do it!

It was that easy. Unfortunately now, the top is in, so those times are no more.

[Travis]

I asked my cat if the top was in, got this:

Ask him about your bond allocation. I want to see him with ears back and fangs out.

[dragoncar]

Liquidated 1.6% of my holdings last week.  Feeling PRET-TY smart right now

[techwiz]

I asked my cat if the top was in, got this:

Ask him about your bond allocation. I want to see him with ears back and fangs out.

Top is in!

[Glenstache]

The full 175 pages of this thread may have been worth it for just the cat gif. Gif-top is most definitely in.

[Edubb20]

Top is in.

[JoePublic3.14]

The full 175 pages of this thread may have been worth it for just the cat gif. Gif-top is most definitely in.

It was a slow build to the cat G-t, but yeah worth it.

[solon]

Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

This stuff must be like catnip to y'alls cats.

[BigMoneyJim]

Hmm, I think the top may be in soon. ATHF Christmas Eve, anyone?

I'm dreaming of a volatile Christmas.

[Roland of Gilead]

Hmm, I think the top may be in soon. ATHF Christmas Eve, anyone?

I'm dreaming of a volatile Christmas.

I just watched something like $70 BILLION dollars rush back into Tesla just because Elon tweeted he had sold enough stock.

There is no top to this market.

[aboatguy]

Hmm, I think the top may be in soon. ATHF Christmas Eve, anyone?

I'm dreaming of a volatile Christmas.

I just watched something like $70 BILLION dollars rush back into Tesla just because Elon tweeted he had sold enough stock.

There is no top to this market.

No top?????

[techwiz]

[BicycleB]

In some quarters of society, there is no top in Monty Python quotes. Ultimately, though, the top is in. I shudder to think how parrot-like the top really is.

[Glenstache]

In some quarters of society, there is no top in Monty Python quotes. Ultimately, though, the top is in. I shudder to think how parrot-like the top really is.

"I'm not dead yet." - the top

[G-dog]

In some quarters of society, there is no top in Monty Python quotes. Ultimately, though, the top is in. I shudder to think how parrot-like the top really is.

"I'm not dead yet." - the top

^Perfection

“I feel happy” - the top

[dragoncar]

Liquidated 1.6% of my holdings last week.  Feeling PRET-TY smart right now

I used to be smart but now I’m just dumb

[JJ-]

Liquidated 1.6% of my holdings last week.  Feeling PRET-TY smart right now

I used to be smart but now I’m just dumb

This is so true for me

[SwordGuy]

Christmas Tree Top Is In!!!!

[svosavvy]

Christmas Tree Top Is In!!!!

Looks like the star on top of the Christmas tree top is in. JK. I honestly thought we would test and fail the pre omicron top.  I was wrong, time to unwind a losing position based on this thought. 

[aboatguy]

[HPstache]