Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 1439469 times)

oldtoyota

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6600 on: March 21, 2020, 06:20:16 AM »


I'm dying to know what they are worth at expiration...

Right now they would have been worth about $800,000

Well, scientists, UN staff, and public health and intelligence people knew this would turn into a pandemic in January.

Chinese doctors tried to sound the alarm and were silenced. Some died.

Hopefully, the virus will mutate to a weaker form.

And Senators knees as we saw when they dumped stocks a few weeks ago.




#Ouch.  I guess you win some you lose some.

It is still a valuable lesson that gambling in the market really doesn't work.  I had the money to do this, I had the (guess, foresight) to see that a crash was likely to happen, all the way back at the beginning of Feb, and yet I still was able to convince myself that I was wrong and everyone else was right.  The thing is, I was wrong.  At the time, we did not know that the virus would not fizzle out.  If it had, the market could easily have stayed above 3300 or gone on to new highs.

We still don't know for a fact that this will end up being a down year.   Anyone selling/buying right now outside of their norm is still gambling.

Lady Stash

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6601 on: March 22, 2020, 01:15:43 PM »
Top pessimism is in.  WSJ today: "The Worst of the Global Sell Off Isn't Here Yet".

It's a sign that bottom is in and it's time to buy more stock.  More Stock! 

Steeze

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6602 on: March 22, 2020, 04:49:13 PM »
Futures limit down again

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6603 on: March 22, 2020, 05:07:08 PM »
Futures limit down again

It's going to be another interesting Monday.  Betting markets have the Dow down to about 18200, SP500 in the 2180's. 

v8rx7guy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6604 on: March 22, 2020, 05:41:06 PM »
Another 5% down?  This sucks.

TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6605 on: March 22, 2020, 06:08:02 PM »
Futures limit down again

It's going to be another interesting Monday.  Betting markets have the Dow down to about 18200, SP500 in the 2180's.

Fairly likely S&P500 will break below 2000 this week .

fattest_foot

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6606 on: March 22, 2020, 06:34:24 PM »
Another 5% down?  This sucks.

It's going to keep dropping until the quarantines end.

Government has to make a decision if this is worth it if it means the US economy ceases to exist, because that's the inevitable situation. The economy is service based, not "telework" based.

Fomerly known as something

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6607 on: March 22, 2020, 07:59:22 PM »
There will be a dead cat bounce on Tuesday, itís when my TSP contribution goes in so totally a dead cat bounce that day.  I predict at least 5%.

ender

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6608 on: March 22, 2020, 08:16:57 PM »
Another 5% down?  This sucks.

It's going to keep dropping until the quarantines end.

Government has to make a decision if this is worth it if it means the US economy ceases to exist, because that's the inevitable situation. The economy is service based, not "telework" based.

Is it really though?

It's probably worth saying "ceases to exist in the current form" anyways. But this is way too serious for the Top is In thread and should probably be discussed in one of the 50 covid-19 threads.

In other news... top might have been in for real. We are even approaching what the market was 5 years ago now! If it drops another 30% we'll be at the peak from 2007. That means top was in in 2007.

bigblock440

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6609 on: March 22, 2020, 08:18:09 PM »
Another 5% down?  This sucks.

It's going to keep dropping until the quarantines end.

Government has to make a decision if this is worth it if it means the US economy ceases to exist, because that's the inevitable situation. The economy is service based, not "telework" based.

Not sure what would fall under "services", but recreational or non-essential services looks to be about 6%, everything else will still stick around.  If you think 6% is enough to make the economy "cease to exist", I'd love to hear your argument.


2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6610 on: March 22, 2020, 09:08:45 PM »
Bottom will not be in for a few quarters. Enjoy the ride, and wash your hands.

ender

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6611 on: March 22, 2020, 09:37:10 PM »
Another 5% down?  This sucks.

It's going to keep dropping until the quarantines end.

Government has to make a decision if this is worth it if it means the US economy ceases to exist, because that's the inevitable situation. The economy is service based, not "telework" based.

Not sure what would fall under "services", but recreational or non-essential services looks to be about 6%, everything else will still stick around.  If you think 6% is enough to make the economy "cease to exist", I'd love to hear your argument.



What percentage of those industries can work remotely or in a prolonged social distancing situation?

Manufacturing, retail, and entertainment are pretty much non-starters there and those together represent almost 30% of the chart you listed.

kenmoremmm

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6612 on: March 22, 2020, 10:14:48 PM »
^ don't forget education. and, i suspect > 50% of govt. positions will be on temporary furlough. now you're over 40% of the pie chart.

Davnasty

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6613 on: March 22, 2020, 10:35:08 PM »
We're oversimplifying that chart. No industry is completely shut down but all of them will be impacted to some extent.

Manufacturing is far from shut down. Retail includes grocery, gas stations, liquor stores, auto stores, online shopping, and other sellers still in operation. Digital entertainment is doing fine. Even some food service is operating at reduced capacity.

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6614 on: March 22, 2020, 11:30:22 PM »
^ don't forget education. and, i suspect > 50% of govt. positions will be on temporary furlough. now you're over 40% of the pie chart.

In my area the teachers and all are still getting paid and are emailing out weekly lesson plans now.

bigblock440

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6615 on: March 23, 2020, 04:59:25 AM »
Another 5% down?  This sucks.

It's going to keep dropping until the quarantines end.

Government has to make a decision if this is worth it if it means the US economy ceases to exist, because that's the inevitable situation. The economy is service based, not "telework" based.

Not sure what would fall under "services", but recreational or non-essential services looks to be about 6%, everything else will still stick around.  If you think 6% is enough to make the economy "cease to exist", I'd love to hear your argument.



What percentage of those industries can work remotely or in a prolonged social distancing situation?

Manufacturing, retail, and entertainment are pretty much non-starters there and those together represent almost 30% of the chart you listed.

I took "ceases to exist" to mean "gone" and not "on hold for a few weeks".  There will still be demand for most of those things, and it will return as soon as restrictions are lifted.  We're not going to just stop making things, building things, or teaching our kids, the US economy isn't going to stop existing.  Yes, the other areas will be affected, but they won't go away. As for social distancing, it's not that difficult in manufacturing, depending on the product.  Most workstation are more than 6 feet apart, things can be sanitized, they can be run at reduced output with reduced employees to spread out further, respirators can be required PPE (already are for some jobs) etc.  Entertainment I was including in the 6%, the 4% and other services 2% as things that might reasonably expect to "cease to exist".  #topisin

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6616 on: March 23, 2020, 07:37:37 AM »
Well, on the bright side, we are finally starting to see some pessimism!  That's a good sign

Optimiser

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6617 on: March 23, 2020, 08:30:06 AM »
Bottom will not be in for a few quarters. Enjoy the ride, and wash your hands.

Hand soap top is in.

Kem

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6618 on: March 23, 2020, 08:38:05 AM »
Bottom will not be in for a few quarters. Enjoy the ride, and wash your hands.

Hand soap top is in.

Now this is getting greasy... you lye!


(actually, we just made a fresh batch of soap as the store has been out for weeks and in 2 more weeks we'd be running dry)

Cabaka

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6619 on: March 23, 2020, 10:29:07 AM »


all Dow gains since Trump was elected now gone. you all have lost around 30% and over 3 years of investing, how long to you think it will take for you all to gain it back ? very unlikely that will be less than 3 years.  your biggest limitation is time.

you all mocked me everytime I posted here. if you wish continue, go ahead; but for those that are now done with buy and hold, please learn moving averages or follow lance Roberts newsletter recommendations.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/no-one-saw-it-coming-should-you-worry-about-10-best-days

dandarc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6620 on: March 23, 2020, 10:33:27 AM »
All it took was a once in a century public health crisis - good call @Cabaka. How can I subscribe to your newsletter? I feel like you'll have even better advice than this Roberts guy.

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6621 on: March 23, 2020, 10:35:16 AM »
Are you saying that mocking Top is in?

BigMoneyJim

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6622 on: March 23, 2020, 10:41:32 AM »
you all have lost around 30% and over 3 years of investing, how long to you think it will take for you all to gain it back ? very unlikely that will be less than 3 years.  your biggest limitation is time.

Quote
for those that are now done with buy and hold

What? I didn't start buy and hold 3 years ago; I started 29 years ago. And I've stuck with it. And I'm sticking with it.

The vast majority of my assets were bought below today's prices, and my cash cushion was liquidated well above today's prices and was based on my personal timeline and not the market levels.

I'm already ahead, very passively.

Sure, I looked at the market dip and my pile of cash and was tempted, but I resisted and am in it for the long run. I just retired but hope to have well more than 29 years in my investing career yet to come. I have no "dry powder", I have a cash cushion whose purpose is to give me two years to deal with a situation like this month, and it's doing its job, and I'm sticking with the plan.

I've been very puzzled about market levels for 3-4 years and was puzzled why Coronavirus didn't seem to impact the market in January or February. But I made no moves related to market timing; my moves were because I was ready to pull the trigger on retiring (edit: circa August-October 2019). Since the market from month to month or even year to year doesn't impact my plans, I'm very very happy with buy and hold.
« Last Edit: March 23, 2020, 10:46:21 AM by BigMoneyJim »

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6623 on: March 23, 2020, 10:42:22 AM »
There is an unlimited supply of mockery.

Many forms of market strategy have been tried and will be tried in this world of volatility.  No one pretends that buy and hold is perfect or all wise.  Indeed it has been said that buy and hold is the worst form of market strategy except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.

Apologies to Churchill.

bthewalls

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6624 on: March 23, 2020, 11:02:11 AM »
is anyone finding it hard to buy at the moment, I am?

SP500 at 2000 sounds real, unless some rescue injection occurs, but I think its too early for that....I might wait another while!

guys does anyone foresee sp500 below 2000? is it possible?!

maizeman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6625 on: March 23, 2020, 11:22:36 AM »
is anyone finding it hard to buy at the moment, I am?

SP500 at 2000 sounds real, unless some rescue injection occurs, but I think its too early for that....I might wait another while!

guys does anyone foresee sp500 below 2000? is it possible?!

Definitely possible.

Whenever I start getting stressed about my automatic purchases, I think back to the few times I've had a pile of money to invest the the market that wasn't just a monthly automatic deduction, and how stressed/bad I felt trying to do it and worrying I was picking the wrong date (and in fact the last time I did this was almost exactly at the peak of 2018 before the ~20% decline in stock prices).

Continuing to invest now means I don't have to stress/worry about trying to call the bottom and when to start investing again + when to move the cash that has piled up in the meantime into the market.

markbike528CBX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6626 on: March 23, 2020, 11:27:35 AM »
There is an unlimited supply of mockery.......snip....
To bad the law of supply and demand applies, otherwise we'd be RIIIICH!  :-)

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6627 on: March 23, 2020, 11:29:26 AM »
Honestly it was harder for me to buy in when it was high, but I kept going.  I was thinking it was high back in 2015, though, and we're still not down that far yet.  Also, there's no reason to think the market would have crashed any time soon if we hadn't randomly had a once-in-a-century pandemic this year.

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6628 on: March 23, 2020, 11:30:33 AM »
Did I miss something lately? Is it in yet? The Top, that is.

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6629 on: March 23, 2020, 11:31:42 AM »
Top is in!



It is all down hill from here!

markbike528CBX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6630 on: March 23, 2020, 11:32:05 AM »
Honestly it was harder for me to buy in when it was high, but I kept going.  I was thinking it was high back in 2015, though, and we're still not down that far yet.  Also, there's no reason to think the market would have crashed any time soon if we hadn't randomly had a once-in-a-century pandemic this year.
Once-in-a-century+1 year.


DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6631 on: March 23, 2020, 11:34:50 AM »
is anyone finding it hard to buy at the moment, I am?

SP500 at 2000 sounds real, unless some rescue injection occurs, but I think its too early for that....I might wait another while!

guys does anyone foresee sp500 below 2000? is it possible?!

Were you okay buying when the S&P was at 3,000 a couple months ago? Why is 2,250 (at the time of this post) suddenly too expensive?

Unless of course the Top really is in, and we'll never see the S&P at >3,000 again.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6632 on: March 23, 2020, 11:39:57 AM »
There is an unlimited supply of mockery.

Many forms of market strategy have been tried and will be tried in this world of volatility.  No one pretends that buy and hold is perfect or all wise.  Indeed it has been said that buy and hold is the worst form of market strategy except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.

Apologies to Churchill.

If I go all in on red and win, then I go all in on red and win again, clearly red was the right answer.  I can clearly outsmart all the folks that couldn't figure out that black would lose. 

vand

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6633 on: March 23, 2020, 11:45:53 AM »
Y'know what guys... I think the top might be in.

dandarc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6634 on: March 23, 2020, 11:47:04 AM »
Y'know what guys... I think the top might be in.
But will earnings be a reality check?

Davnasty

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6635 on: March 23, 2020, 11:56:33 AM »
Honestly it was harder for me to buy in when it was high, but I kept going.  I was thinking it was high back in 2015, though, and we're still not down that far yet.  Also, there's no reason to think the market would have crashed any time soon if we hadn't randomly had a once-in-a-century pandemic this year.

Sure there was. If you timed the market using moving averages you would have seen this pandemic coming from a mile away.

secondcor521

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6636 on: March 23, 2020, 11:57:37 AM »
Y'know what guys... I think the top might be in.
But will earnings be a reality check?
Only if XIV breaks down.

vand

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6637 on: March 23, 2020, 12:09:46 PM »
Y'know what guys... I think the top might be in.
But will earnings be a reality check?

Earnings are a hopelessly lagging indicator

wienerdog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6638 on: March 23, 2020, 12:52:35 PM »
All it took was a once in a century public health crisis - good call @Cabaka. How can I subscribe to your newsletter? I feel like you'll have even better advice than this Roberts guy.

Screw the Robert guy The Great Thorstach ô told us in 2017 the Top was In.  All those who didn't listen are losers. 

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6639 on: March 23, 2020, 01:19:23 PM »
Honestly it was harder for me to buy in when it was high, but I kept going.  I was thinking it was high back in 2015, though, and we're still not down that far yet.  Also, there's no reason to think the market would have crashed any time soon if we hadn't randomly had a once-in-a-century pandemic this year.

Sure there was. If you timed the market using moving averages you would have seen this pandemic coming from a mile away.

You unsophisticated louts, Bollinger Bands are the only true indicator.  3 out of 4 Thorstaches use them.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6640 on: March 23, 2020, 01:23:24 PM »
Honestly it was harder for me to buy in when it was high, but I kept going.  I was thinking it was high back in 2015, though, and we're still not down that far yet.  Also, there's no reason to think the market would have crashed any time soon if we hadn't randomly had a once-in-a-century pandemic this year.

Sure there was. If you timed the market using moving averages you would have seen this pandemic coming from a mile away.

So if the 50-day and 200-day moving averages converge on the day of the full moon, and the VIX hits exactly 14.9, it's a sign that some random guy in Asia is getting a dry cough, right?

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6641 on: March 23, 2020, 01:33:36 PM »
Y'know what guys... I think the top might be in.

Duuuude!  Are you sure you wanna go out on a limb and predict that?  Have you read the portents and omens?  Has Nostradamus weighed in?

I felt the chicken innards this morning and the read I got was "bumpy."


Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6642 on: March 23, 2020, 01:35:18 PM »
Y'know what guys... I think the top might be in.
But will earnings be a reality check?

Earnings are a hopelessly lagging indicator
... and the fear!

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6643 on: March 23, 2020, 01:38:22 PM »
is anyone finding it hard to buy at the moment, I am?

SP500 at 2000 sounds real, unless some rescue injection occurs, but I think its too early for that....I might wait another while!

guys does anyone foresee sp500 below 2000? is it possible?!

Possible?  Oh shucks, I'll call that "possible" and raise it to a "likely."  We're already at about 2200. 


bthewalls

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6644 on: March 23, 2020, 02:21:59 PM »
is anyone finding it hard to buy at the moment, I am?

SP500 at 2000 sounds real, unless some rescue injection occurs, but I think its too early for that....I might wait another while!

guys does anyone foresee sp500 below 2000? is it possible?!

Possible?  Oh shucks, I'll call that "possible" and raise it to a "likely."  We're already at about 2200.


thats just shocking...surely it wont go below it

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6645 on: March 23, 2020, 02:28:59 PM »
is anyone finding it hard to buy at the moment, I am?

SP500 at 2000 sounds real, unless some rescue injection occurs, but I think its too early for that....I might wait another while!

guys does anyone foresee sp500 below 2000? is it possible?!

Possible?  Oh shucks, I'll call that "possible" and raise it to a "likely."  We're already at about 2200.


thats just shocking...surely it wont go below it

It likely will.  And don't call me Shirley.  :-)

bthewalls

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6646 on: March 23, 2020, 02:30:43 PM »
is anyone finding it hard to buy at the moment, I am?

SP500 at 2000 sounds real, unless some rescue injection occurs, but I think its too early for that....I might wait another while!

guys does anyone foresee sp500 below 2000? is it possible?!

I know that line...it was out of the airplane movie...1976?

Possible?  Oh shucks, I'll call that "possible" and raise it to a "likely."  We're already at about 2200.


thats just shocking...surely it wont go below it

It likely will.  And don't call me Shirley.  :-)

Kem

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6647 on: March 23, 2020, 02:31:06 PM »
Top is in!



It is all down hill from here!

When the markets upside down that direction sure looks up to me

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6648 on: March 23, 2020, 02:55:51 PM »
Another 5% down?  This sucks.

It's going to keep dropping until the quarantines end.

Government has to make a decision if this is worth it if it means the US economy ceases to exist, because that's the inevitable situation. The economy is service based, not "telework" based.

By the time quarantine ends it will have rebounded.  Do people not realize the market is forward looking?  The only thing that will drive it lower is is things get worse than expected.  Simply getting worse as expected is not enough

Nobody knows what these know unknowns will turn out to be.  Keep yer stick on the ice

BicycleB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6649 on: March 23, 2020, 03:00:40 PM »
Bottom will not be in for a few quarters. Enjoy the ride, and wash your hands.

Hand soap top is in.

Now this is getting greasy... you lye!


That was a cheap clean shot.