Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 676863 times)

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3400 on: September 21, 2018, 11:39:05 AM »


Ron Jeremy top not yet in

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3401 on: September 21, 2018, 11:49:21 AM »

PathtoFIRE

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3402 on: September 21, 2018, 12:05:26 PM »
Clearly time to sell:
http://tylervigen.com/view_correlation?id=29216

I'm mean it's a clear as rain, there was a "death cross" in mid 2008, and now there's another, we're hosed.

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3403 on: September 21, 2018, 12:20:11 PM »
Top is in!



dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3404 on: September 24, 2018, 10:54:33 AM »
And I'm sure you could find pundits saying everything was going to be turning the corner "any day now" all the way to the bottom, just to make it clear that it's not just the permabears that are wrong. :-)

I'm tickled by Robert Wiedemer making the exact same prediction for the last 6 years. I mean, at least vary the numbers a little so people think you aren't just copy-pasting!

Google knows I’m easy prey for clickbait articles like “wealthy people know a stock market crash is coming”
I think it goes without saying that "wealthy people" are likely to be experts in whatever field made them wealthy.  If that wealth was not accumulated based on what they did or didn't do before or during a market crash, I would probably defer to the likes of a Warren Buffet as far as predicting the future, and what to do now in advance of that predicted future, in terms of informing my own opinions.

Unfortunately this is not the level of critical thinking your average person generally uses in that 2 seconds they're evaluating a click bait title. 

Steeze

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3405 on: September 24, 2018, 03:38:24 PM »
Was talking with a client over the weekend who admittedly sold the top and bought the bottom of the 2008 crash on accident, complete luck.

He moved his whole stash 2.5MM into CDs last month to try to do it on purpose.

Crane operator top is in.

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3406 on: September 24, 2018, 03:42:47 PM »
I swear, it's like people think the top is a game.


* Also, this is where I make all of my most important financial decisions. Of course.

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3407 on: September 24, 2018, 03:55:52 PM »
10 Cartoons that capture this epic bull market - written almost a year ago.

https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/63674-10-cartoons-capture-this-epic-bull-market

This one is the best one.


caracarn

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3408 on: September 26, 2018, 02:48:55 PM »
With all the tops we've hit since just this year it was nice to see that my 401k, invested 100% in one single total index fund is up 12.48% YTD and over 18% for the 12 months rolling average. 

We also had investment guy from the second largest fund company at our company meeting today telling us that he "wants a 20% drop" so they could update their chart because according to their "research" the Average Frequency of a drop of 15% or more is once every two years, but the last one was October 2011 and the Average  Frequency of a drop of 20% or more is once every 3 3/4 years and the last one was March 2009.  He was happy they could update the -10% line, which happens once every year to March 2018 from February 2016.

Maybe all this shows us that tops are the tops lately?

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3409 on: September 26, 2018, 03:00:12 PM »

Maybe all this shows us that tops are the tops lately?

So if I understand correctly...Top is in? ;)

ILikeDividends

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3410 on: September 26, 2018, 06:15:34 PM »
. . . so they could update their chart because according to their "research" the Average Frequency of a drop of 15% or more is once every two years . . .
He has obviously never heard about the guy who drowned in a river that only averaged a depth of two inches.

Over the last twenty years we have averaged a crash once every ten years.  The next one could happen any day now.  Or not.  Could go either way.  But certainly, we are probably due for one, unless we're not; and I'm 100% certain of that.

There are only two kinds of forecasts: lucky, and lousy.  Your guy obviously isn't very lucky.  So I guess that leaves . . . ?
« Last Edit: September 26, 2018, 06:30:13 PM by ILikeDividends »

Steeze

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3411 on: September 26, 2018, 06:48:52 PM »
My coworker's girlfriend is an analyst at JP Morgan. She warned me today of the upcoming liquidity crisis and advised that I go into cash until after "the event" sometime in the next 6-24 months. Stating that any gains/dividends between now and then would be paltry in comparison to having cash to invest at the bottom.

She also generally disapproves of my 60%+ savings rate and affinity for index funds. She's in the save 10-20% active management /stock picking/ Yolo crowd.

Liquidity top is in.
JP Morgan top is in.
Crane operator sentiment is at an all time low.
Signals are flashing red, either that or there is a fire truck parked outside.

Top is in.

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3412 on: September 26, 2018, 06:58:58 PM »
My coworker's girlfriend is an analyst at JP Morgan. She warned me today of the upcoming liquidity crisis and advised that I go into cash until after "the event" sometime in the next 6-24 months. Stating that any gains/dividends between now and then would be paltry in comparison to having cash to invest at the bottom.

She also generally disapproves of my 60%+ savings rate and affinity for index funds. She's in the save 10-20% active management /stock picking/ Yolo crowd.

Liquidity top is in.
JP Morgan top is in.
Crane operator sentiment is at an all time low.
Signals are flashing red, either that or there is a fire truck parked outside.

Top is in.
Did you ask her if the inflation top is in yet? Runaway inflation would be just peachy if inflation cranks up. So many tops to keep track of!

ILikeDividends

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3413 on: September 26, 2018, 08:18:10 PM »
She also generally disapproves of my 60%+ savings rate and affinity for index funds. She's in the save 10-20% active management /stock picking/ Yolo crowd.
At least she hasn't yet tried to sell you an annuity.  Maybe there's still hope she'll decide to pursue an honest career path at some point in the future.  Witch doctor, maybe?

Analyst top is in.
« Last Edit: September 26, 2018, 08:23:57 PM by ILikeDividends »

OldandGrumpy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3414 on: October 02, 2018, 11:11:55 AM »
I recently heard a vague rumor that the top could possibly be in

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3415 on: October 02, 2018, 11:25:08 AM »


TOP  is in!

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3416 on: October 02, 2018, 03:15:58 PM »
@thorstach, where are you? Don't let this thread die!

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3417 on: October 02, 2018, 03:59:16 PM »
@thorstach, where are you? Don't let this thread die!

thorstach tapped out of the top out a long time ago.

Tap is in!

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3418 on: October 02, 2018, 04:54:50 PM »
Are we there yet?

Fomerly known as something

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3419 on: October 03, 2018, 11:24:37 AM »

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3420 on: October 03, 2018, 12:27:33 PM »
Are we there yet?

5 more minutes.

Nope that was yesterday.. 5 more minutes from NOW obviously..:)

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3421 on: October 03, 2018, 12:30:46 PM »
Are we there yet?

5 more minutes.

Nope that was yesterday.. 5 more minutes from NOW obviously..:)
So nerve-racking. I just don't even know when to sell, sell, SELL!

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3422 on: October 03, 2018, 01:31:09 PM »
Are we there yet?

5 more minutes.

Nope that was yesterday.. 5 more minutes from NOW obviously..:)
So nerve-racking. I just don't even know when to sell, sell, SELL!

About 30 minutes ago judging by how the market pulled back..:)

Maenad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3423 on: October 04, 2018, 07:31:29 AM »
@thorstach, where are you? Don't let this thread die!

Thorstach has never been the one keeping this thread going.

Snarky Commentary Top isn't in yet!

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3424 on: October 04, 2018, 11:44:31 AM »
Whew, top finally in.  Thanks everyone for waiting for this magical day, see you in 10 years :)

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3425 on: October 04, 2018, 11:47:37 AM »
Whew, top finally in.  Thanks everyone for waiting for this magical day, see you in 10 years :)

Is 10 years when we recover to current prices? Or when the bottoms in? Or the next top?

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3426 on: October 04, 2018, 11:49:58 AM »
Whew, top finally in.  Thanks everyone for waiting for this magical day, see you in 10 years :)

Is 10 years when we recover to current prices? Or when the bottoms in? Or the next top?

 "Look to my coming, at first light, on the fifth day. At dawn, look to the East." - Top

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3427 on: October 04, 2018, 12:23:38 PM »
Whew, top finally in.  Thanks everyone for waiting for this magical day, see you in 10 years :)

Is 10 years when we recover to current prices? Or when the bottoms in? Or the next top?

10 years until S&P500 hits 3000.  I really don't care either way, but it's fun to play this game and at least be able to think this way and be fine with it. US 2018 = Japan 1989 ?

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3428 on: October 04, 2018, 03:18:21 PM »
"Look to my coming, at first light, on the fifth day. At dawn, look to the East." - Top

via Imgflip Meme Generator

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3429 on: October 05, 2018, 09:31:37 AM »
And there it goes, we missed it

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3430 on: October 05, 2018, 09:55:58 AM »
And there it goes, we missed it

Aack!  The market is crashing!

It's already fallen all the way down to where was... yesterday?  If this keeps up, it could drop as low as it was last week.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3431 on: October 05, 2018, 10:00:10 AM »

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3432 on: October 05, 2018, 10:51:46 AM »
Market falling! thorstach post imminent.

slow hand slow plan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3433 on: October 05, 2018, 11:00:09 AM »
He has been toppled by the recent market swing

slow hand slow plan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3434 on: October 05, 2018, 11:08:41 AM »
MR PercenThor Red Dow.. Smiling smugly because of the small stock drop

thorstach

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3435 on: October 08, 2018, 10:11:32 AM »
SPY top is in. BTC bottom is in.

thd7t

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3436 on: October 08, 2018, 11:00:31 AM »
Quote from: thorstachlink=topic=71868.msg2162028#msg2162028 date=1539015092
SPY top is in. BTs  is in.
OMG!! HE'S BACK!!
ETA: We missed you!

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3437 on: October 08, 2018, 11:45:03 AM »
Market falling! thorstach post imminent.

Looks like I'm better at Post-Timing than Market-Timing!

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3438 on: October 08, 2018, 11:52:01 AM »
SPY top is in. BTC bottom is in.

Can anyone decode this so we can project all the tops?

RWD

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3439 on: October 08, 2018, 11:59:59 AM »
SPY top is in. BTC bottom is in.

Can anyone decode this so we can project all the tops?

A SPY is a secret agent. I think that means we can expect tops whenever a James Bond film is in work. BTC is a reference to the ICAO code for Bashkirian Airlines. So I think we can predict bears to coincide with Russian propaganda. Not sure what do if the James Bond film takes place in Russia though.

theoverlook

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3440 on: October 08, 2018, 12:22:15 PM »
SPY top is in. BTC bottom is in.

Since we have to time it twice to be successful, when will the SPY bottom be in? Thanks!

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3441 on: October 08, 2018, 12:33:15 PM »
SPY top is in. BTC bottom is in.

Since we have to time it twice to be successful, when will the SPY bottom be in? Thanks!

No, I don't think you understand. This is it. Top is in, permanently. Only down from here. Get out while you still can.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3442 on: October 08, 2018, 12:53:40 PM »
SPY top is in. BTC bottom is in.

Can anyone decode this so we can project all the tops?

A SPY is a secret agent. I think that means we can expect tops whenever a James Bond film is in work. BTC is a reference to the ICAO code for Bashkirian Airlines. So I think we can predict bears to coincide with Russian propaganda. Not sure what do if the James Bond film takes place in Russia though.

In Soviet Russia, Bond film you

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3443 on: October 08, 2018, 12:56:16 PM »
SPY top is in. BTC bottom is in.

Since we have to time it twice to be successful, when will the SPY bottom be in? Thanks!

No, I don't think you understand. This is it. Top is in, permanently. Only down from here. Get out while you still can.

Sell, and buy bitcoin. Immediately. The time is now. All will be well. The top is dead. Long live Top!

secondcor521

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3444 on: October 08, 2018, 01:08:56 PM »
SPY top is in. BTC bottom is in.

Can anyone decode this so we can project all the tops?

A SPY is a secret agent. I think that means we can expect tops whenever a James Bond film is in work. BTC is a reference to the ICAO code for Bashkirian Airlines. So I think we can predict bears to coincide with Russian propaganda. Not sure what do if the James Bond film takes place in Russia though.

Buy Bonds.  James Bonds.

(SPY = S&P 500, BTC = Bitcoin).

UnleashHell

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3445 on: October 08, 2018, 01:34:40 PM »
at the time  thorstache posted the S&P  was at 2869. Its climbed 15 points in 3 hours.
Please keep posting -  or maybe now the top is in!!

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3446 on: October 08, 2018, 02:21:03 PM »
SPY top is in. BTC bottom is in.

Can anyone decode this so we can project all the tops?

A SPY is a secret agent. I think that means we can expect tops whenever a James Bond film is in work. BTC is a reference to the ICAO code for Bashkirian Airlines. So I think we can predict bears to coincide with Russian propaganda. Not sure what do if the James Bond film takes place in Russia though.

So, it's time to sell all my spies, and buy frequent flier miles on Bashkirian?

rpr

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Top is In: The abridged/collected writings of thorstach
« Reply #3447 on: October 08, 2018, 04:29:21 PM »
A little bored, so here are the collected writings of thorstach

Column 1: Date of Post
Column 2: SPY closing price
Column 3: Gain/loss % till next Thorstach post

To keep things simple, I only selected dates if it was at least 7 dates later.

4/11/2017   $2,353.78   1.43%           Top is In   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1510170/#msg1510170         
4/26/2017   $2,387.45   0.40%      Top is still in   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1528720/#msg1528720         
5/9/2017    $2,396.92   0.94%      Top is still in   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1546613/#msg1546613         
6/27/2017   $2,419.38   2.09%      False breakout   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1604523/#msg1604523         
7/24/2017   $2,469.91   0.28%      Mammoth VIX bet   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1636081/#msg1636081         
8/4/2017    $2,476.83   -2.07%      Toxic Mix   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1649346/#msg1649346         
8/18/2017   $2,425.55   1.33%      seeking alpha article   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1665065/#msg1665065         
9/5/2017    $2,457.85   4.36%      failed breakout   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1684439/#msg1684439         
10/23/2017   $2,564.98   3.01%   Failed breakout   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1743599/#msg1743599         
12/1/2017   $2,642.22   4.54%      Top is in   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1792201/#msg1792201         
2/2/2018    $2,762.13   -0.65%      The mother of all tops is in.   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1883211/#msg1883211         
2/27/2018   $2,744.28   -3.67%      Lower top is in   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1914694/#msg1914694         
3/22/2018   $2,643.69   1.87%      First GOAT MOAT   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1943091/#msg1943091         
4/19/2018   $2,693.13   -0.12%      GOAT MOAT still in   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1977860/#msg1977860         
5/29/2018   $2,689.86   1.01%      GOAT MOAT still in.   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg2021004/#msg2021004         
6/25/2018   $2,717.07   3.74%      GOAT MOAT confirmed.   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg2049793/#msg2049793         
7/27/2018   $2,818.82   2.33%      Double GOAT MOAT is in   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg2085380/#msg2085380         
10/8/2018   $2,884.43                 SPY top is in. BTC bottom is in.   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg2162028/#msg2162028         

Net gain thus far is 22%. 13 increases, 4 decreases.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3448 on: October 09, 2018, 06:56:44 AM »
Excellent summary.  Taking bets on when we will next see the original top ($2353)

theoverlook

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3449 on: October 09, 2018, 07:42:20 AM »
Excellent summary.  Taking bets on when we will next see the original top ($2353)

April 13th, 2028 when they do a 2:1 split of SPY. So April 12th will close at 4706, April 13th open at 2353. x2.

I was going to post a serious reply but decided it wasn't in the right spirit
Yes I know an index doesn't split...wait, does it?