Top is in

[techwiz]

Top is in!

[dougules]

And I'm sure you could find pundits saying everything was going to be turning the corner "any day now" all the way to the bottom, just to make it clear that it's not just the permabears that are wrong. :-)

I'm tickled by Robert Wiedemer making the exact same prediction for the last 6 years. I mean, at least vary the numbers a little so people think you aren't just copy-pasting!

Google knows I’m easy prey for clickbait articles like “wealthy people know a stock market crash is coming”

I think it goes without saying that "wealthy people" are likely to be experts in whatever field made them wealthy.  If that wealth was not accumulated based on what they did or didn't do before or during a market crash, I would probably defer to the likes of a Warren Buffet as far as predicting the future, and what to do now in advance of that predicted future, in terms of informing my own opinions.

Unfortunately this is not the level of critical thinking your average person generally uses in that 2 seconds they're evaluating a click bait title. 

[Steeze]

Was talking with a client over the weekend who admittedly sold the top and bought the bottom of the 2008 crash on accident, complete luck.

He moved his whole stash 2.5MM into CDs last month to try to do it on purpose.

Crane operator top is in.

[Glenstache]

I swear, it's like people think the top is a game.


* Also, this is where I make all of my most important financial decisions. Of course.

[solon]

10 Cartoons that capture this epic bull market - written almost a year ago.

https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/63674-10-cartoons-capture-this-epic-bull-market

This one is the best one.

[caracarn]

With all the tops we've hit since just this year it was nice to see that my 401k, invested 100% in one single total index fund is up 12.48% YTD and over 18% for the 12 months rolling average. 

We also had investment guy from the second largest fund company at our company meeting today telling us that he "wants a 20% drop" so they could update their chart because according to their "research" the Average Frequency of a drop of 15% or more is once every two years, but the last one was October 2011 and the Average  Frequency of a drop of 20% or more is once every 3 3/4 years and the last one was March 2009.  He was happy they could update the -10% line, which happens once every year to March 2018 from February 2016.

Maybe all this shows us that tops are the tops lately?

[DS]

Maybe all this shows us that tops are the tops lately?

So if I understand correctly...Top is in? ;)

[ILikeDividends]

. . . so they could update their chart because according to their "research" the Average Frequency of a drop of 15% or more is once every two years . . .

He has obviously never heard about the guy who drowned in a river that only averaged a depth of two inches.

Over the last twenty years we have averaged a crash once every ten years.  The next one could happen any day now.  Or not.  Could go either way.  But certainly, we are probably due for one, unless we're not; and I'm 100% certain of that.

There are only two kinds of forecasts: lucky, and lousy.  Your guy obviously isn't very lucky.  So I guess that leaves . . . ?

[Steeze]

My coworker's girlfriend is an analyst at JP Morgan. She warned me today of the upcoming liquidity crisis and advised that I go into cash until after "the event" sometime in the next 6-24 months. Stating that any gains/dividends between now and then would be paltry in comparison to having cash to invest at the bottom.

She also generally disapproves of my 60%+ savings rate and affinity for index funds. She's in the save 10-20% active management /stock picking/ Yolo crowd.

Liquidity top is in.
JP Morgan top is in.
Crane operator sentiment is at an all time low.
Signals are flashing red, either that or there is a fire truck parked outside.

Top is in.

[Glenstache]

My coworker's girlfriend is an analyst at JP Morgan. She warned me today of the upcoming liquidity crisis and advised that I go into cash until after "the event" sometime in the next 6-24 months. Stating that any gains/dividends between now and then would be paltry in comparison to having cash to invest at the bottom.

She also generally disapproves of my 60%+ savings rate and affinity for index funds. She's in the save 10-20% active management /stock picking/ Yolo crowd.

Liquidity top is in.
JP Morgan top is in.
Crane operator sentiment is at an all time low.
Signals are flashing red, either that or there is a fire truck parked outside.

Top is in.

Did you ask her if the inflation top is in yet? Runaway inflation would be just peachy if inflation cranks up. So many tops to keep track of!

[ILikeDividends]

She also generally disapproves of my 60%+ savings rate and affinity for index funds. She's in the save 10-20% active management /stock picking/ Yolo crowd.

At least she hasn't yet tried to sell you an annuity.  Maybe there's still hope she'll decide to pursue an honest career path at some point in the future.  Witch doctor, maybe?

Analyst top is in.

[OldandGrumpy]

I recently heard a vague rumor that the top could possibly be in

[techwiz]

TOP  is in!

[solon]

@thorstach, where are you? Don't let this thread die!

[Clean Shaven]

@thorstach, where are you? Don't let this thread die!

thorstach tapped out of the top out a long time ago.

Tap is in!

[Glenstache]

Are we there yet?

[Fomerly known as something]

Are we there yet?

5 more minutes.

[Exflyboy]

Are we there yet?

5 more minutes.

Nope that was yesterday.. 5 more minutes from NOW obviously..:)

[Glenstache]

Are we there yet?

5 more minutes.

Nope that was yesterday.. 5 more minutes from NOW obviously..:)

So nerve-racking. I just don't even know when to sell, sell, SELL!

[Exflyboy]

Are we there yet?

5 more minutes.

Nope that was yesterday.. 5 more minutes from NOW obviously..:)

So nerve-racking. I just don't even know when to sell, sell, SELL!

About 30 minutes ago judging by how the market pulled back..:)

[Maenad]

@thorstach, where are you? Don't let this thread die!

Thorstach has never been the one keeping this thread going.

Snarky Commentary Top isn't in yet!

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Whew, top finally in.  Thanks everyone for waiting for this magical day, see you in 10 years :)

[JAYSLOL]

Whew, top finally in.  Thanks everyone for waiting for this magical day, see you in 10 years :)

Is 10 years when we recover to current prices? Or when the bottoms in? Or the next top?

[DS]

Whew, top finally in.  Thanks everyone for waiting for this magical day, see you in 10 years :)

Is 10 years when we recover to current prices? Or when the bottoms in? Or the next top?

 "Look to my coming, at first light, on the fifth day. At dawn, look to the East." - Top

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Whew, top finally in.  Thanks everyone for waiting for this magical day, see you in 10 years :)

Is 10 years when we recover to current prices? Or when the bottoms in? Or the next top?

10 years until S&P500 hits 3000.  I really don't care either way, but it's fun to play this game and at least be able to think this way and be fine with it. US 2018 = Japan 1989 ?

[Clean Shaven]

"Look to my coming, at first light, on the fifth day. At dawn, look to the East." - Top

via Imgflip Meme Generator

[Brother Esau]

And there it goes, we missed it

[sol]

And there it goes, we missed it

Aack!  The market is crashing!

It's already fallen all the way down to where was... yesterday?  If this keeps up, it could drop as low as it was last week.

[Retire-Canada]

[JAYSLOL]

Market falling! thorstach post imminent.

[slow hand slow plan]

He has been toppled by the recent market swing

[slow hand slow plan]

MR PercenThor Red Dow.. Smiling smugly because of the small stock drop

[thorstach]

SPY top is in. BTC bottom is in.

[thd7t]

SPY top is in. BTs  is in.

OMG!! HE'S BACK!!
ETA: We missed you!

[JAYSLOL]

Market falling! thorstach post imminent.

Looks like I'm better at Post-Timing than Market-Timing!

[DS]

SPY top is in. BTC bottom is in.

Can anyone decode this so we can project all the tops?

[RWD]

SPY top is in. BTC bottom is in.

Can anyone decode this so we can project all the tops?

A SPY is a secret agent. I think that means we can expect tops whenever a James Bond film is in work. BTC is a reference to the ICAO code for Bashkirian Airlines. So I think we can predict bears to coincide with Russian propaganda. Not sure what do if the James Bond film takes place in Russia though.

[theoverlook]

SPY top is in. BTC bottom is in.

Since we have to time it twice to be successful, when will the SPY bottom be in? Thanks!

[DS]

SPY top is in. BTC bottom is in.

Since we have to time it twice to be successful, when will the SPY bottom be in? Thanks!

No, I don't think you understand. This is it. Top is in, permanently. Only down from here. Get out while you still can.

[JAYSLOL]

SPY top is in. BTC bottom is in.

Can anyone decode this so we can project all the tops?

A SPY is a secret agent. I think that means we can expect tops whenever a James Bond film is in work. BTC is a reference to the ICAO code for Bashkirian Airlines. So I think we can predict bears to coincide with Russian propaganda. Not sure what do if the James Bond film takes place in Russia though.

In Soviet Russia, Bond film you

[Glenstache]

SPY top is in. BTC bottom is in.

Since we have to time it twice to be successful, when will the SPY bottom be in? Thanks!

No, I don't think you understand. This is it. Top is in, permanently. Only down from here. Get out while you still can.

Sell, and buy bitcoin. Immediately. The time is now. All will be well. The top is dead. Long live Top!

[secondcor521]

SPY top is in. BTC bottom is in.

Can anyone decode this so we can project all the tops?

A SPY is a secret agent. I think that means we can expect tops whenever a James Bond film is in work. BTC is a reference to the ICAO code for Bashkirian Airlines. So I think we can predict bears to coincide with Russian propaganda. Not sure what do if the James Bond film takes place in Russia though.

Buy Bonds.  James Bonds.

(SPY = S&P 500, BTC = Bitcoin).

[UnleashHell]

at the time  thorstache posted the S&P  was at 2869. Its climbed 15 points in 3 hours.
Please keep posting -  or maybe now the top is in!!

[Clean Shaven]

SPY top is in. BTC bottom is in.

Can anyone decode this so we can project all the tops?

A SPY is a secret agent. I think that means we can expect tops whenever a James Bond film is in work. BTC is a reference to the ICAO code for Bashkirian Airlines. So I think we can predict bears to coincide with Russian propaganda. Not sure what do if the James Bond film takes place in Russia though.

So, it's time to sell all my spies, and buy frequent flier miles on Bashkirian?

[rpr]

A little bored, so here are the collected writings of thorstach

Column 1: Date of Post
Column 2: SPY closing price
Column 3: Gain/loss % till next Thorstach post

To keep things simple, I only selected dates if it was at least 7 dates later.

4/11/2017   $2,353.78   1.43%           Top is In   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1510170/#msg1510170         
4/26/2017   $2,387.45   0.40%      Top is still in   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1528720/#msg1528720         
5/9/2017    $2,396.92   0.94%      Top is still in   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1546613/#msg1546613         
6/27/2017   $2,419.38   2.09%      False breakout   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1604523/#msg1604523         
7/24/2017   $2,469.91   0.28%      Mammoth VIX bet   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1636081/#msg1636081         
8/4/2017    $2,476.83   -2.07%      Toxic Mix   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1649346/#msg1649346         
8/18/2017   $2,425.55   1.33%      seeking alpha article   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1665065/#msg1665065         
9/5/2017    $2,457.85   4.36%      failed breakout   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1684439/#msg1684439         
10/23/2017   $2,564.98   3.01%   Failed breakout   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1743599/#msg1743599         
12/1/2017   $2,642.22   4.54%      Top is in   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1792201/#msg1792201         
2/2/2018    $2,762.13   -0.65%      The mother of all tops is in.   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1883211/#msg1883211         
2/27/2018   $2,744.28   -3.67%      Lower top is in   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1914694/#msg1914694         
3/22/2018   $2,643.69   1.87%      First GOAT MOAT   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1943091/#msg1943091         
4/19/2018   $2,693.13   -0.12%      GOAT MOAT still in   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1977860/#msg1977860         
5/29/2018   $2,689.86   1.01%      GOAT MOAT still in.   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg2021004/#msg2021004         
6/25/2018   $2,717.07   3.74%      GOAT MOAT confirmed.   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg2049793/#msg2049793         
7/27/2018   $2,818.82   2.33%      Double GOAT MOAT is in   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg2085380/#msg2085380         
10/8/2018   $2,884.43                 SPY top is in. BTC bottom is in.   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg2162028/#msg2162028         

Net gain thus far is 22%. 13 increases, 4 decreases.

[dragoncar]

Excellent summary.  Taking bets on when we will next see the original top ($2353)

[theoverlook]

Excellent summary.  Taking bets on when we will next see the original top ($2353)

April 13th, 2028 when they do a 2:1 split of SPY. So April 12th will close at 4706, April 13th open at 2353. x2.

_{I was going to post a serious reply but decided it wasn't in the right spirit}
^{Yes I know an index doesn't split...wait, does it?}

[dragoncar]

^{Yes I know an index doesn't split...wait, does it?}

Had to look it up to confirm, but although the index itself won't split, price-weighted indices like Dow Jones are affected by splits in constituent stocks. 

Index funds, of course, probably will split if they get too high for retail buyers to want a full share

[Glenstache]

A little bored, so here are the collected writings of thorstach

Column 1: Date of Post
Column 2: SPY closing price
Column 3: Gain/loss % till next Thorstach post

To keep things simple, I only selected dates if it was at least 7 dates later.

<snip>

If this wasn't such a digression into off-topic, this would be a candidate for the "best post" thread. Post Top is in!

[dougules]

So the SPY top is in, huh?