Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 675797 times)

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2800 on: May 02, 2018, 01:13:44 PM »
In all seriousness, what qualifies as a top? I say six months without a top topifies the prior top, but perhaps there's an official definition.

The definition of Top is clear: When the market (of your choice - but usually the S&P500) reaches it's highest point - i.e. a point it will never go higher than. That is the Top. It might have been back in January.

The weird thing about the Top is that we'll never know if it is truly the Top.

Speak for yourself, I know a top when I see it.

Soooo....when was the last top? Or have we never actually had one?

Stachless

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2801 on: May 02, 2018, 02:06:54 PM »
In all seriousness, what qualifies as a top? I say six months without a top topifies the prior top, but perhaps there's an official definition.

The definition of Top is clear: When the market (of your choice - but usually the S&P500) reaches it's highest point - i.e. a point it will never go higher than. That is the Top. It might have been back in January.

The weird thing about the Top is that we'll never know if it is truly the Top.

Speak for yourself, I know a top when I see it.

Soooo....when was the last top? Or have we never actually had one?


I don't disagree with the definition, but there should be some inflation-adjustment built in.  Many folks look back at market charts and claim how 'the market is always at the top' without factoring in that a dollar today is worth waaaaaaaaay less than $1 ten or 20 years ago was. 

Dabnasty

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2802 on: May 02, 2018, 02:25:59 PM »
In all seriousness, what qualifies as a top? I say six months without a top topifies the prior top, but perhaps there's an official definition.

The definition of Top is clear: When the market (of your choice - but usually the S&P500) reaches it's highest point - i.e. a point it will never go higher than. That is the Top. It might have been back in January.

The weird thing about the Top is that we'll never know if it is truly the Top.

Speak for yourself, I know a top when I see it.

Soooo....when was the last top? Or have we never actually had one?

Not yet, but I'll let you know when it gets here.

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2803 on: May 02, 2018, 02:31:02 PM »
Top is omnipresent. In Top we believe.

thd7t

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2804 on: May 02, 2018, 02:43:57 PM »
Top is omnipresent. In Top we believe.
I WANT TOp BELIEVE

maizeman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2805 on: May 02, 2018, 04:05:08 PM »
I don't disagree with the definition, but there should be some inflation-adjustment built in.  Many folks look back at market charts and claim how 'the market is always at the top' without factoring in that a dollar today is worth waaaaaaaaay less than $1 ten or 20 years ago was.

People naive enough to not adjust for inflation likely also aren't adjusting the the reinvestment of dividends. So there are two biases in opposite directions when considering total return naively. I don't know that they'd exactly cancel out, but at least less bias aggregate bias than either would introduce alone.

Also $1 from 2008 is worth $1.18 today and dollar from 1998 is worth $1.54. That's not trivial, but I'm not sure it justifies 9 a's in "way". Maybe 3-4 a's max.

Bicycle_B

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2806 on: May 02, 2018, 04:43:34 PM »
The top is in for a's.  Maizeman said so.  He is the new Thorstach!!!!!!!!!


JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2807 on: May 02, 2018, 05:04:22 PM »
The top is in for a's.  Maizeman said so.  He is the new Thorstach!!!!!!!!!

I knew it, I switched to a 60/40 B's and C's back before the Top was in

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2808 on: May 02, 2018, 06:17:47 PM »
The top is in for a's.  Maizeman said so.  He is the new Thorstach!!!!!!!!!

Dude, top was in for the A's in 1989. If you or Maizeman are gonna call a top, at least get the millennium right!




Stachless

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2809 on: May 02, 2018, 07:07:20 PM »
The inflation-adjusted graph of the S&P500 is the last graph (not chart) on this page:

http://www.simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-total-returns.htm

Granted that this chart only covers 1950 - 2010, but its hard to not say 1965 was The Top for a full 25 years.  (Which is a waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay long time!)

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2810 on: May 02, 2018, 08:34:53 PM »
The top is in for a's.  Maizeman said so.  He is the new Thorstach!!!!!!!!!

Dude, top was in for the A's in 1989. If you or Maizeman are gonna call a top, at least get the millennium right!




So the A's are secretly Japan...

hadabeardonce

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2811 on: May 02, 2018, 11:01:50 PM »
The inflation-adjusted graph of the S&P500 is the last graph (not chart) on this page:

http://www.simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-total-returns.htm

Granted that this chart only covers 1950 - 2010, but its hard to not say 1965 was The Top for a full 25 years.  (Which is a waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay long time!)
This chart goes to now: http://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500

Is anyone printing "I Was There for the Top" t-shirts?

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2812 on: May 03, 2018, 03:30:09 AM »
The inflation-adjusted graph of the S&P500 is the last graph (not chart) on this page:

http://www.simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-total-returns.htm

Granted that this chart only covers 1950 - 2010, but its hard to not say 1965 was The Top for a full 25 years.  (Which is a waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay long time!)
This chart goes to now: http://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500

Is anyone printing "I Was There for the Top" t-shirts?


« Last Edit: May 03, 2018, 03:32:12 AM by dragoncar »

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2813 on: May 03, 2018, 07:49:31 AM »
The market went to the top and all I got was this lousy t-shirt :(

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2814 on: May 03, 2018, 08:40:49 AM »
The market went to the top and all I got was this lousy t-shirt :(

I didn't even get a t-shirt...

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2815 on: May 03, 2018, 10:17:41 AM »
The market went to the top and all I got was this lousy t-shirt :(

I didn't even get a t-shirt...

The market went to the Top and all I got was this lousy meme

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2816 on: May 03, 2018, 10:51:31 AM »
The top is in for a's.  Maizeman said so.  He is the new Thorstach!!!!!!!!!

Dude, top was in for the A's in 1989. If you or Maizeman are gonna call a top, at least get the millennium right!




So the A's are secretly Japan...

And they just announced that they're gonna open the 2019 season in Japan! It all makes sense now! I think it does. It does, right?

https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/05/01/as-announce-theyll-open-next-season-in-japan/

weirdlair

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2817 on: May 03, 2018, 12:49:24 PM »
The top was in, now the bottom's up?


KTG

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2818 on: May 04, 2018, 07:05:10 AM »
I am getting so angry. Maybe I am just not cut out for this.


thd7t

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2819 on: May 04, 2018, 07:09:14 AM »
I am getting so angry. Maybe I am just not cut out for this.
Are you holding on?  If you're holding on, keep holding.  It will be better than okay.  Remember, you haven't been in the market for a blink of the eye.  You're actually lucky.  This is making your will power stronger now and you richer later!

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2820 on: May 04, 2018, 07:22:34 AM »
I am getting so angry. Maybe I am just not cut out for this.

Patience, it's a long game.  If short term losses keep you up at night, your asset allocation may be too aggressive.  I know it's de rigueur for folks to brag about how they are 90/10, or even 100% stocks, but that exposure is not for everybody.  The old fashioned advice was "age in bonds," e.g., if I am 48, I would have 48% of my portfolio in bonds, and the allocation would increase by 1 percentage point per year.  Other people do "age - 10," or whatever.  You could alternatively look at the glide path in the target date funds, or just invest in a target date fund and let Fidelity or Vanguard take care of the allocation for you.

Also, if you are freaking out by the daily market moves, just stop looking at your balance.  Pretend the internet doesn't exist, and you only get a quarterly or annual statement. 

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2821 on: May 04, 2018, 07:33:18 AM »
I am getting so angry. Maybe I am just not cut out for this.

Market timing is the path to the dark side...


caffeine

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2822 on: May 04, 2018, 07:37:12 AM »
I am getting so angry. Maybe I am just not cut out for this.

Market timing is the path to the dark side...

I think that's top meme!

KTG

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2823 on: May 04, 2018, 07:44:52 AM »
Thanks guys, you are always quick to jump in and offer support. But I really want to throw my desk out the five story window.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2824 on: May 04, 2018, 07:53:43 AM »
I am getting so angry. Maybe I am just not cut out for this.

Market timing is the path to the dark side...

I think that's top meme!

Thanks, and May the Fourth be with you

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2825 on: May 04, 2018, 07:57:00 AM »
And also with you!

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2826 on: May 04, 2018, 08:21:09 AM »
I haven't actually laughed out loud at any of these memes, but this one, oh, this one...

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2827 on: May 04, 2018, 08:25:41 AM »
Thanks guys, you are always quick to jump in and offer support. But I really want to throw my desk out the five story window.

Why?  Markets up yo.  Pop champagne

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2828 on: May 04, 2018, 08:34:03 AM »
I never even look at the market I just post "Top is in." Am I doing it right?

UnleashHell

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2829 on: May 04, 2018, 08:39:40 AM »
I never even look at the market I just post "Top is in." Am I doing it right?

Where's the meme?

Slacker!

KTG

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2830 on: May 04, 2018, 08:47:21 AM »
Why?  Markets up yo.  Pop champagne

Yeah I must look pretty dumb. I looked like we were going to have a terrible day.

But I am still not where I was before the correction!


Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2831 on: May 04, 2018, 08:54:14 AM »
I am getting so angry. Maybe I am just not cut out for this.

Market timing is the path to the dark side...
That was hilarious. You should troll around for a reason to post it on bogleheads, its hilarity would be grealy magnified by the large relative hilarity differential.

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2832 on: May 04, 2018, 08:55:54 AM »
Those guys aren't really the "Star Wars" type.  More like Casablanca.

Cycling Stache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2833 on: May 04, 2018, 09:38:17 AM »
Why?  Markets up yo.  Pop champagne

Yeah I must look pretty dumb. I looked like we were going to have a terrible day.

But I am still not where I was before the correction!

Consider taking a couple steps back from the ledge.

(1)  The S&P 500 is less than 10% off it's all-time high.  Say that again slowly--the S&P 500 is less than 10% off it's all-time high.

(2)  You want the market to go down each and every day if you're still investing.  (Well, even better if it drops 90% tomorrow.)   You want to buy stock as cheaply as possible.  Aren't you still investing?  (If your response is yes, but I wished I had market timed the last investment better, nobody here can help you.)

(3)  How much do you have in the market that 10% is critical to your life?  Especially 10% in unrealized "losses"?  It's likely not a huge amount because if you have a lot in the market, it's because you understand how the market works and you've learned to deal with the anxiety.  If you don't have a ton in there (yet!), relax.  Your life isn't going to come down to $10k.

Keep investing, and have some confidence in numbers and history.  And maybe stop checking the markets.  It's not helping!

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2834 on: May 04, 2018, 09:52:19 AM »
Draedel is in.

PathtoFIRE

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2835 on: May 04, 2018, 09:59:54 AM »
Those guys aren't really the "Star Wars" type.  More like Casablanca.

Talkies are overrated

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2836 on: May 04, 2018, 11:58:14 AM »
I am getting so angry. Maybe I am just not cut out for this.

Market timing is the path to the dark side...
That was hilarious. You should troll around for a reason to post it on bogleheads, its hilarity would be grealy magnified by the large relative hilarity differential.

Nah, I troll enough around these forums, I'd better not increase my forum postings for my free times sake. 

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2837 on: May 04, 2018, 12:30:21 PM »
Quote
Market timing is the path to the dark side...

The dark side is strong with Thorstach


dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2838 on: May 04, 2018, 12:41:11 PM »
Red light saber = markets down = top is in

Green light saber = markets up.  A surprise to be sure, but a welcome one

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2839 on: May 04, 2018, 12:48:35 PM »





Even Yoda can't tell if the top is in!

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2840 on: May 04, 2018, 01:49:13 PM »

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2841 on: May 04, 2018, 01:50:11 PM »
I am getting so angry. Maybe I am just not cut out for this.

Suckers bail when the market drops.  Ballers double down and get rich.  Which will you be?

Bicycle_B

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2842 on: May 04, 2018, 02:16:02 PM »

Thanks guys, you are always quick to jump in and offer support. But I really want to throw my desk out the five story window.

So many feelings.  Painful, eh?

Sorry about that.  Good job for not throwing out the desk, though.  Same for not throwing out your stock allocation.


But I am still not where I was before the correction!

So?  You're not supposed to win that fast.

More empathetically:  KTG, it does in fact delight me that you check in with us and are holding the course.  It is concerning to hear how difficult this is for now.  I hope the feelings re market moves calm down soon.  You can do the right thing (which is nothing, as you now well know) regardless, but I feel for you.

You need a new measuring stick for success.  Whether the market is up or down in the few months since you invested your main chunk of change is irrelevant.  That's money with a long term measurement period, so only long term measurements are relevant.  You won't have any long term measurements for 5 or 10 years or so.  Until then, may I suggest:

1. Any day you left your investments alone is a win.  You may celebrate with one victory dance, or a gleeful remark in an appropriate thread or journal. 
2. Any day you added more savings to your investments according to your wise investment plan is an even bigger win.  Two victory dances or gleeful remarks.
3. Your worth as a person is not related to whether the market went up since the particular day you made an investment.
4. Your dignity and brilliance as an investor is not related o whether the market went up since the particular day you made an investment.
5. Until you find a more entertaining replacement for pondering whether the Mr. Market has gratified your urge to find self worth as The Investor Whose Stock Went Up, you may consider yourself the Michael Jordan of investing for having left your money alone after dropping a reasonable portion into a reasonable equity investment. 
6.  Assuming you are still saving, maybe focus on tracking the amount of new money invested.
7.  I think a lot of people find more peace by establishing a long term plan ("reaching FI takes me 9 more years, assuming I keep investing 50% of take pay") and monitoring success with meeting that goal.  What FIRE-creating actions are you taking?
8.  At least by doing 7, you can find subgoals that you can control, such as savings %, whether you performed responsibly today in area X that you identified as the key next step, and so on.

TL;DR - Find a goal you can control.  Focus on that so the stocks have time to mature without interference.



aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2843 on: May 04, 2018, 02:28:40 PM »
I know this has been said before KTG, but you really seem like a good candidate for a bond-heavy portfolio. Your asset allocation should be a function of both your investing horizon and your volatility tolerance.

SwordGuy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2844 on: May 04, 2018, 03:18:57 PM »
Hey @KTG

I found MMM back in 2012.   We upped our savings rate dramatically and started investing like crazy.

And I'm a spreadsheet nerd.

I made many different spreadsheets to help me figure out what our FIRE income needed to be and others that helped me plan on when I would reach FI.

Here's the one thing that they all had in common.

I did not include any projected returns during my pre-FIRE period.   I assumed that the investments would keep pace with inflation, just to simplify things.

I didn't look at most of our actual investment account balances more than once a year after setting up the initial spreadsheet with the starting balances.  I would update our current balances in the spreadsheet and then not look at them again for another year.

That way, instead of worrying a whole lot, I was always happy with where I was, because I was either on target or ahead of target.

You might want to try something similar.

And also remember that we're likely near the end of a bull market and you aren't FIRED yet.  So the absolute best thing that could happen for you would be to have stock prices drop 30-40% and stay that way for a few years while you pour more money into stocks.  You should actually be upset when prices are going up while you're still early in the accumulation phase of FIRE.




maizeman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2845 on: May 04, 2018, 04:28:16 PM »
I know this has been said before KTG, but you really seem like a good candidate for a bond-heavy portfolio. Your asset allocation should be a function of both your investing horizon and your volatility tolerance.

While I agree with the second sentence, I'd argue that long term you'll be a lot better off if you can adjust your volatility tolerance to match the asset allocation (selected based on what makes sense for your investing horizon), instead of adjusting your asset allocation to match your volatility tolerance.

Now if you've tried a bunch of the other approaches proposed in this thread and you're still not sleeping well at night -- or still struggling with the urge to throw things out windows -- then by all means go long bonds. But it's often surprisingly easy to change the way you think about things instead.

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2846 on: May 04, 2018, 07:39:59 PM »
I know this has been said before KTG, but you really seem like a good candidate for a bond-heavy portfolio. Your asset allocation should be a function of both your investing horizon and your volatility tolerance.

While I agree with the second sentence, I'd argue that long term you'll be a lot better off if you can adjust your volatility tolerance to match the asset allocation (selected based on what makes sense for your investing horizon), instead of adjusting your asset allocation to match your volatility tolerance.

Now if you've tried a bunch of the other approaches proposed in this thread and you're still not sleeping well at night -- or still struggling with the urge to throw things out windows -- then by all means go long bonds. But it's often surprisingly easy to change the way you think about things instead.

Right. I only posted that after he was still struggling with the urge to throw things out the window in response to relatively mild market turbulence. This despite participating in a thread that is 58 pages of market timing mockery in the midst of a historic market run up. So I guess I stand by both sentences in my post.

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2847 on: May 05, 2018, 07:04:58 AM »
I am getting so angry. Maybe I am just not cut out for this.

Suckers bail when the market drops.  Ballers double down and get rich.  Which will you be?
Not a sucker nor a baller
I'm a boatguy so I stay the course

shinn497

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2848 on: May 05, 2018, 10:43:44 PM »
Since this thread started, the SP500 rose 30%.

Yeah. This is why you don't time.

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2849 on: May 05, 2018, 10:49:06 PM »
Since this thread started, the SP500 rose 30%.

Technically I think it rose 40%, then dropped 10%.  I'm rounding, obviously, but the market performance during the life of this thread has been truly remarkable in a way that I feel almost justifies the amount of derision it has received.