Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 1436292 times)

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6400 on: March 12, 2020, 03:07:52 PM »
I'm not being greedy, but I'm not selling either. I'm still buying when I get paid every-other-Friday, and I will keep doing so as long as I have a job. I don't understand the connection between a falling stock market and panic selling. I'll only sell when I need money to pay expenses in retirement.

dandarc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6401 on: March 12, 2020, 03:10:19 PM »
The correct way to do it @solon

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6402 on: March 12, 2020, 03:18:54 PM »
The worst single day for stocks since 1987.

For those who like to trot out the Warren Buffett quotes every time the market dips... are you actually following through and BEING GREEDY right now? Because this is a full blow panic.


The market has lost nearly 1/3rd of its value. I suspect that even Mr Buffett is getting mildly interested now that valuations have retreated from the stratosphere.

You do know what happened after 1987, right?

secondcor521

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6403 on: March 12, 2020, 03:27:46 PM »
The worst single day for stocks since 1987.

For those who like to trot out the Warren Buffett quotes every time the market dips... are you actually following through and BEING GREEDY right now? Because this is a full blow panic.


The market has lost nearly 1/3rd of its value. I suspect that even Mr Buffett is getting mildly interested now that valuations have retreated from the stratosphere.

Rebalanced to my AA again today.  Considered shifting my AA more towards stocks to be greedy, but then decided it would be greedier to wait and see if the market drops more so I can get more stocks while they're on sale.

So yes, I agree with Buffett's advice, and yes, I follow through.

Eventually I think most people will realize it's not worth the panicky behavior and normalcy will return.  But that is just my opinion.  YMMV.

Alternatepriorities

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6404 on: March 12, 2020, 03:31:18 PM »
The worst single day for stocks since 1987.

For those who like to trot out the Warren Buffett quotes every time the market dips... are you actually following through and BEING GREEDY right now? Because this is a full blow panic.


The market has lost nearly 1/3rd of its value. I suspect that even Mr Buffett is getting mildly interested now that valuations have retreated from the stratosphere.

You do know what happened after 1987, right?

I think that's Vand's point here. We've entered the fear stage and it might be time to be greedy. It's looking like I will be skipping on some optional spending this year so I can buy more shares... so the fun top is in.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6405 on: March 12, 2020, 03:40:58 PM »
You do know what happened after 1987, right?

I think that's Vand's point here. We've entered the fear stage and it might be time to be greedy. It's looking like I will be skipping on some optional spending this year so I can buy more shares... so the fun top is in.

I don't have anywhere close to the resources, skill, or interest that Warren Buffett has.  I try my best to be equanimous when others are greedy and equanimous when others are fearful. 

Alternatepriorities

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6406 on: March 12, 2020, 03:46:45 PM »
You do know what happened after 1987, right?

I think that's Vand's point here. We've entered the fear stage and it might be time to be greedy. It's looking like I will be skipping on some optional spending this year so I can buy more shares... so the fun top is in.

I don't have anywhere close to the resources, skill, or interest that Warren Buffett has.  I try my best to be equanimous when others are greedy and equanimous when others are fearful.

I think that's a good option too. It seems like travelling might not be much fun this year anyway which will free up some cash for us. I'm not especially greedy now but I am willing to delay some gratification with stocks on sale that I wasn't when they were touching all time highs... It worked out well in '08-'09

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6407 on: March 12, 2020, 03:57:56 PM »
The worst single day for stocks since 1987.

For those who like to trot out the Warren Buffett quotes every time the market dips... are you actually following through and BEING GREEDY right now? Because this is a full blow panic.


The market has lost nearly 1/3rd of its value. I suspect that even Mr Buffett is getting mildly interested now that valuations have retreated from the stratosphere.

This isnt done yet, my friend. Weíre only about 2 weeks into this.


Alternatepriorities

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6408 on: March 12, 2020, 04:10:24 PM »
So, if high to bear took about 1/9 as long as average we should hit the bottom in about 9 trading days?

Is there a historical precedent for this? I'd rather it bottom out and be flat for a couple months so we all have more time to buy in before it starts its inevitable climb again but I'm unlikely to get what i wish for.
 

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6409 on: March 12, 2020, 04:14:55 PM »
The worst single day for stocks since 1987.

For those who like to trot out the Warren Buffett quotes every time the market dips... are you actually following through and BEING GREEDY right now? Because this is a full blow panic.


The market has lost nearly 1/3rd of its value. I suspect that even Mr Buffett is getting mildly interested now that valuations have retreated from the stratosphere.

Yes actually. I have about $50,000 in cash most of which I have to now invest in the market in my individual 401k plan for the 2019 tax year.

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6410 on: March 12, 2020, 04:47:00 PM »
The worst single day for stocks since 1987.

For those who like to trot out the Warren Buffett quotes every time the market dips... are you actually following through and BEING GREEDY right now? Because this is a full blow panic.


The market has lost nearly 1/3rd of its value. I suspect that even Mr Buffett is getting mildly interested now that valuations have retreated from the stratosphere.

Yes actually. I have about $50,000 in cash most of which I have to now invest in the market in my individual 401k plan for the 2019 tax year.

So envious of you Dave in AA!

BigMoneyJim

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6411 on: March 12, 2020, 04:58:46 PM »
I've been through several temptations of how to "buy the dip", but since I have long-term plans I don't have "dry powder" waiting for a deal, and my bond component is in a balanced fund so it sort of auto-balances itself day by day.

As a recent retiree I have two years (minus a couple of weeks) of cash for expenses, and I was tempted, but no, I have a plan, and I'm sticking with it.

I briefly considered going from the balanced fund to an all-stock fund, but again decided I have a plan and not much reason to change it. My cash will stretch hopefully through this dip, and if it doesn't then the balanced funds would be my first withdrawal target, although I rather figure I will have taken action to avoid that by then.

So I am following my plans again for third major dip in my investing career.

You do know what happened after 1987, right?

I graduated high school?

bbates728

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6412 on: March 12, 2020, 05:16:32 PM »
The worst single day for stocks since 1987.

For those who like to trot out the Warren Buffett quotes every time the market dips... are you actually following through and BEING GREEDY right now? Because this is a full blow panic.


The market has lost nearly 1/3rd of its value. I suspect that even Mr Buffett is getting mildly interested now that valuations have retreated from the stratosphere.

Yes, I am, thanks.

Monerexia

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6413 on: March 12, 2020, 07:08:09 PM »
The worst single day for stocks since 1987.

For those who like to trot out the Warren Buffett quotes every time the market dips... are you actually following through and BEING GREEDY right now? Because this is a full blow panic.


The market has lost nearly 1/3rd of its value. I suspect that even Mr Buffett is getting mildly interested now that valuations have retreated from the stratosphere.

Yes, I am, thanks.

Me too! 100% equities and loving it. I do enjoy roller coasters though. Some folks are wired differently and that's okay too, we need them to sell to bring the price down.

vand

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6414 on: March 12, 2020, 07:17:32 PM »
The worst single day for stocks since 1987.

For those who like to trot out the Warren Buffett quotes every time the market dips... are you actually following through and BEING GREEDY right now? Because this is a full blow panic.


The market has lost nearly 1/3rd of its value. I suspect that even Mr Buffett is getting mildly interested now that valuations have retreated from the stratosphere.

You do know what happened after 1987, right?

er, 1988?

vand

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6415 on: March 12, 2020, 07:29:00 PM »
^^ T'was a serious question..

Well done to those who are managing to put any spare cash they have to work in this selloff.

I'm taking advantage. Had a pretty large cash position about 12% which I have been gradually moving over over the last couple of weeks. 1 more bullet to fire, which I'll put the order in tomorrow so that it goes through on Monday. A philosophy which has an element of timing the market doesn't necessarily contradict a philosophy that relies on time in the market.

I don't hold much bonds, but I'm trimming further back what I do hold and swapping them for stocks.  Bonds have had a fantastic last 18 months but I really don't see much more upside. Indeed we saw a significant reversal on Tuesday in the bond market, and Bonds could be viewed as even more expensive than stocks when you consider that you are loaning the US Govt money at 0.6% for 10 years (that is crazy).

« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 07:32:13 PM by vand »

ender

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6416 on: March 12, 2020, 07:58:56 PM »
RIP to the ironic "is this the top?" posts...at least for awhile.

S&P 500 close 4/11/2017 - 2353.78
S&P 500 present - 2518.79

I would still be posting plenty of ironic sarcastic posts if that didn't feel a little disrespectful in the face of a pandemic.  Nothing happening is changing any long-term prospects.

In 2009 the market dropped to prices it was about 11 years prior.

We're still not even 4 years back now.

11 years ago today would be 2009. That means... sub 1k SP500 is gonna happen since history obviously repeats itself with the market crashing to its 11 year prior number.

Top was definitely in. RIP everyone here, nice knowing y'all.

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6417 on: March 12, 2020, 10:40:38 PM »
Just dumped $10k into the market. I raided my emergency fund.  Planning to replenish over the next year rather than investing in the market. Basically using my emergency fund to front load my investments for this year. I feel it's somewhat risky to nearly deplete my emergency fund, but I still have over $60k in taxable account even after this drop, so I can always tap that.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6418 on: March 12, 2020, 10:49:51 PM »
I'm not being greedy, but I'm not selling either. I'm still buying when I get paid every-other-Friday, and I will keep doing so as long as I have a job. I don't understand the connection between a falling stock market and panic selling. I'll only sell when I need money to pay expenses in retirement.

Iím just trying to find ways not to sell for living expenses.  Can sell bonds and gold.  Can let the wife lend to me but thatís zero sum for her (she could be investing) so not a rational option.  Not ready to leverage beyond my mortgage right now, but if refi rates come down consider a cash-out

vand

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6419 on: March 13, 2020, 03:50:49 AM »
The worst single day for stocks since 1987.

For those who like to trot out the Warren Buffett quotes every time the market dips... are you actually following through and BEING GREEDY right now? Because this is a full blow panic.


The market has lost nearly 1/3rd of its value. I suspect that even Mr Buffett is getting mildly interested now that valuations have retreated from the stratosphere.

This isnt done yet, my friend. Weíre only about 2 weeks into this.




As you know Iím buying the FTSE, which for the record peaked as far back as May 2018. While the US went bananas many other indices spent the time since that peak just treading water.  So it is technically correct to say that UK equities have been in a bear market for almost 2 years now.. thatís not far off the batting average for most bear durations.

It could of course fall much further as all markets have a high degree of correlation about them these days, but it could also be closer to the end of its bear market than anyone thinks. CAPE is currently about 11.0, cheaper than any time in my investing lifetime.

I have post more thoughts on the FTSE in the UK tax sub forum.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6420 on: March 13, 2020, 05:35:23 AM »
@vand

Yup. When I start buying in the next few weeks, UK is one of the markets Iíll be buying into*.  Equities seem to be correlated across countries so the old saw about the US catching cold and the rest of the world catching pneumonia has more than a little truth to it.  Thanks for the tip on the UK tax topic. Iíll check it out.

*(or more accurately more into. I was a fan of UK equities before the late unpleasantness.)

achvfi

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6421 on: March 13, 2020, 07:29:33 AM »
I am out of firepower. This 25% off sale comes to an end for me today.


Somewhere I read that early in the Great Depression, stocks kept dropping because everyone who had the guts to buy falling stock ran out of purchase money. So @achvfi, thanks for proving that the mighty Thorstach right. The best worst is yet to come!

There is a great graphic I saw earlier showing the time from bear to bottom in past bear markets.  It's months usually. Sooo, keep that powder dry for a spell.

Currently, I think people are just holding on to dry powder until time to rush back in.

TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6422 on: March 13, 2020, 07:30:47 AM »
I am out of firepower. This 25% off sale comes to an end for me today.


Somewhere I read that early in the Great Depression, stocks kept dropping because everyone who had the guts to buy falling stock ran out of purchase money. So @achvfi, thanks for proving that the mighty Thorstach right. The best worst is yet to come!

There is a great graphic I saw earlier showing the time from bear to bottom in past bear markets.  It's months usually. Sooo, keep that powder dry for a spell.

Currently, I think people are just holding on to dry powder until time to rush back in.

Seems to be a bull rush this morning.

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6423 on: March 13, 2020, 07:34:00 AM »
I am out of firepower. This 25% off sale comes to an end for me today.


Somewhere I read that early in the Great Depression, stocks kept dropping because everyone who had the guts to buy falling stock ran out of purchase money. So @achvfi, thanks for proving that the mighty Thorstach right. The best worst is yet to come!

There is a great graphic I saw earlier showing the time from bear to bottom in past bear markets.  It's months usually. Sooo, keep that powder dry for a spell.

Currently, I think people are just holding on to dry powder until time to rush back in.

Seems to be a bull rush this morning.

Yeah wtf man.  I got some money going into my accounts, but it won't be settled up until the end of today so I'll get todays closing prices.  I'm going to be somewhat pissed if we have a crazy 10% rally today just in time for my orders to go through, only to drop back down.  I know I can't time the market, and my IPS says dump the money in ASAP, so that's what I did, but it will bum me out a bit if that happens.  Kind of hoping for the market to crater again.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6424 on: March 13, 2020, 08:03:30 AM »
I am out of firepower. This 25% off sale comes to an end for me today.


Somewhere I read that early in the Great Depression, stocks kept dropping because everyone who had the guts to buy falling stock ran out of purchase money. So @achvfi, thanks for proving that the mighty Thorstach right. The best worst is yet to come!

There is a great graphic I saw earlier showing the time from bear to bottom in past bear markets.  It's months usually. Sooo, keep that powder dry for a spell.

Currently, I think people are just holding on to dry powder until time to rush back in.

Seems to be a bull rush this morning.

Nope, dead cat bounce.  When thorstach doesnít comment and the market goes up it defies the laws of the Top, and will continue to fall forever.  We need him to comment something vague about total doom, thatís when the bottom is in. 

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6425 on: March 13, 2020, 09:14:44 AM »
Well it is supposed to be a dead cat bounce, but Trump is giving a press conference later today, so run for your lives!

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6426 on: March 13, 2020, 09:24:33 AM »
Well it is supposed to be a dead cat bounce, but Trump is giving a press conference later today, so run for your lives!

Praise be to Odin.  Maybe Trump can cause another steep decline before market close.

I got some money going into my accounts, but it won't be settled up until the end of today so I'll get todays closing prices.  I'm going to be somewhat pissed if we have a crazy 10% rally today just in time for my orders to go through, only to drop back down. 

magnet18

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6427 on: March 13, 2020, 09:33:37 AM »
I am out of firepower. This 25% off sale comes to an end for me today.


Somewhere I read that early in the Great Depression, stocks kept dropping because everyone who had the guts to buy falling stock ran out of purchase money. So @achvfi, thanks for proving that the mighty Thorstach right. The best worst is yet to come!

There is a great graphic I saw earlier showing the time from bear to bottom in past bear markets.  It's months usually. Sooo, keep that powder dry for a spell.

Currently, I think people are just holding on to dry powder until time to rush back in.

Seems to be a bull rush this morning.

Yeah wtf man.  I got some money going into my accounts, but it won't be settled up until the end of today so I'll get todays closing prices.  I'm going to be somewhat pissed if we have a crazy 10% rally today just in time for my orders to go through, only to drop back down.  I know I can't time the market, and my IPS says dump the money in ASAP, so that's what I did, but it will bum me out a bit if that happens.  Kind of hoping for the market to crater again.

My deposits got Wednesdays prices, so I'm in the same semi-ticked boat, but at least there's hope for you!

achvfi

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6428 on: March 13, 2020, 09:35:06 AM »
I am out of firepower. This 25% off sale comes to an end for me today.


Somewhere I read that early in the Great Depression, stocks kept dropping because everyone who had the guts to buy falling stock ran out of purchase money. So @achvfi, thanks for proving that the mighty Thorstach right. The best worst is yet to come!

There is a great graphic I saw earlier showing the time from bear to bottom in past bear markets.  It's months usually. Sooo, keep that powder dry for a spell.

Currently, I think people are just holding on to dry powder until time to rush back in.

Seems to be a bull rush this morning.

Yeah wtf man.  I got some money going into my accounts, but it won't be settled up until the end of today so I'll get todays closing prices.  I'm going to be somewhat pissed if we have a crazy 10% rally today just in time for my orders to go through, only to drop back down.  I know I can't time the market, and my IPS says dump the money in ASAP, so that's what I did, but it will bum me out a bit if that happens.  Kind of hoping for the market to crater again.

Still at very good price. No worries.

Well it is supposed to be a dead cat bounce, but Trump is giving a press conference later today, so run for your lives!
Praise be to Odin.  Maybe Trump can cause another steep decline before market close.

I believe there are trillions of dollars waiting to rush in and out. There will be lots of opportunities during this confusion and incompetent white house wont help. Until clearer heads prevail enjoy the ride.


PathtoFIRE

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6429 on: March 13, 2020, 10:47:40 AM »
It's fun to watch the SP500 ticker versus the cnbc top headline. The headline was something about a great rebound as the SP500 started off +5%, with the accompanying picture of smiling traders. That stayed up as things reversed course down to +1%. Then the headline finally caught up and now says stocks give up their gains, with a picture of a worried trader...and of course now we're back to nearly +3.5%.

Alternatepriorities

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6430 on: March 13, 2020, 11:11:42 AM »
It's fun to watch the SP500 ticker versus the cnbc top headline. The headline was something about a great rebound as the SP500 started off +5%, with the accompanying picture of smiling traders. That stayed up as things reversed course down to +1%. Then the headline finally caught up and now says stocks give up their gains, with a picture of a worried trader...and of course now we're back to nearly +3.5%.

I try to avoid the talking heads but they can be amusing when they can't keep up with the day.

DarkandStormy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6431 on: March 13, 2020, 11:32:39 AM »
RIP to the ironic "is this the top?" posts...at least for awhile.

S&P 500 close 4/11/2017 - 2353.78
S&P 500 present - 2518.79

I would still be posting plenty of ironic sarcastic posts if that didn't feel a little disrespectful in the face of a pandemic.  Nothing happening is changing any long-term prospects.

Not sure of your point.

1) This thread is filled with "iS tHiS tHe tOp?" posts because we have seen new tops set every few months, if not every few weeks.  They became ironic posts to the OP.
2) We are no longer at or near "the top," as it were.  Some 22% off or whatever.
3) What's the point of posting the S&P 500 close from almost 3 years ago?
4) What, exactly, would your ironic sarcastic posts be since, uhh, we're not anywhere near 3300?
5) The drops down are always much quicker than the rises to the top.

des999

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6432 on: March 13, 2020, 11:41:49 AM »
I only have about 11% bonds right now, but thinking about selling those and going 100% equities. Would anyone do the same?  I'm 40 and don't plan to RE for at least 5-7 years, maybe longer.

I just don't keep much cash laying around, what extra I did have already went in.

achvfi

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6433 on: March 13, 2020, 12:00:25 PM »
I only have about 11% bonds right now, but thinking about selling those and going 100% equities. Would anyone do the same?  I'm 40 and don't plan to RE for at least 5-7 years, maybe longer.

I just don't keep much cash laying around, what extra I did have already went in.
I would do it if I had any left in bonds. If you have enough emergency fund and a buy and hold investor its a great opportunity.

des999

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6434 on: March 13, 2020, 12:06:38 PM »
I only have about 11% bonds right now, but thinking about selling those and going 100% equities. Would anyone do the same?  I'm 40 and don't plan to RE for at least 5-7 years, maybe longer.

I just don't keep much cash laying around, what extra I did have already went in.
I would do it if I had any left in bonds. If you have enough emergency fund and a buy and hold investor its a great opportunity.

I just did it.  :)

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6435 on: March 13, 2020, 12:29:15 PM »
RIP to the ironic "is this the top?" posts...at least for awhile.

S&P 500 close 4/11/2017 - 2353.78
S&P 500 present - 2518.79

I would still be posting plenty of ironic sarcastic posts if that didn't feel a little disrespectful in the face of a pandemic.  Nothing happening is changing any long-term prospects.

Not sure of your point.

1) This thread is filled with "iS tHiS tHe tOp?" posts because we have seen new tops set every few months, if not every few weeks.  They became ironic posts to the OP.
2) We are no longer at or near "the top," as it were.  Some 22% off or whatever.
3) What's the point of posting the S&P 500 close from almost 3 years ago?
4) What, exactly, would your ironic sarcastic posts be since, uhh, we're not anywhere near 3300?
5) The drops down are always much quicker than the rises to the top.

1) Yes, but the panic and greed about the market tanking would be just even more funny if that weren't disrespectful to the thousands of people getting sick and the millions facing economic hardship from quarantines.  The flurry is still quite ridiculous.
2) The market being way down doesn't change anything.  3386 is not THE top unless you think this is the end of the modern economy.  Maybe it won't get back there for years, but that's not concerning.  There's no reason to react.  If you feel the need to react, try to find ways to spend less.  Being responsible by practicing social distancing should help with that anyway. 
3) If you look back through the history of this thread, 4/11/2017 is when we were told the market was going to tank and that we should all pull out.  It took until Feb 2020 before the stopped clock was right.  We're still not back down that far yet.  Those who have kept their "powder dry" since then still need another big drop as well as good timing to be coming out ahead.  It may very well happen for them, but just because you come out ahead doesn't mean you weren't still betting against the house. 
4) Probably memes about headless chickens or kegs of gunpowder.  I would be all over some more entertainment at market timers' expense if it didn't feel a little insensitive with so many people concerned about their health or their jobs. 
5) Maybe.  Maybe not.  It's ridiculous to think anybody knows what's coming next with the market in the short term.  It very well could rise back up quickly.  Or not.  I'm smart enough to know that I don't know. The long term is what matters, anyway, and I have just as much optimism about that as I did 2019.

Tyson

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6436 on: March 13, 2020, 12:43:14 PM »
It's weird.  5 years ago when I joined this board, with a drop like this I would have been feeling panic.  Now I feel.... nothing.  Runups and then big drops just seem par for the course if you're going to be in index funds.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6437 on: March 13, 2020, 12:51:20 PM »
It's weird.  5 years ago when I joined this board, with a drop like this I would have been feeling panic.  Now I feel.... nothing.  Runups and then big drops just seem par for the course if you're going to be in index funds.

I know.  It's nice that we can help inoculate each other against emotional reactions. 

BigMoneyJim

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6438 on: March 13, 2020, 01:03:15 PM »
I know.  It's nice that we can help inoculate each other against emotional reactions.

Herd impunity!

SwordGuy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6439 on: March 13, 2020, 02:00:42 PM »
I know.  It's nice that we can help inoculate each other against emotional reactions.

Herd impunity!

I just related that comment to my wife.

I have been banished from her presence for the nonce.

My hat is off to you for such an apt and awesome pun!

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6440 on: March 13, 2020, 02:09:08 PM »
It's weird.  5 years ago when I joined this board, with a drop like this I would have been feeling panic.  Now I feel.... nothing.  Runups and then big drops just seem par for the course if you're going to be in index funds.

I know.  It's nice that we can help inoculate each other against emotional reactions.

What are you talking about? Aren't you SUPER HAPPY that stocks are up ~9% today?!? If it keeps going up 9% every day forever we'll be gazillionaires!!!!!!!!!!!!!111

It would be pretty funny if we lost the bull market because of the S&P closing down over 20% from the top for only one day.

Custom Concern

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6441 on: March 13, 2020, 02:16:31 PM »
A friendly PSA reminder to how percent gains and losses work.

If the market loses 10% one day, the next day an 11% gain will be needed for full restoration of value. If a 20% loss occurs, a 25% gain is needed. 30% loss, 43% gain needed. etc.

This is how losses, followed by equivalent or even greater gains, over time, can still create net negative values.

Oh, wait, this isn't the "Down is in" thread.. Oops..


frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6442 on: March 13, 2020, 02:23:49 PM »
Well it is supposed to be a dead cat bounce, but Trump is giving a press conference later today, so run for your lives!

Praise be to Odin.  Maybe Trump can cause another steep decline before market close.

I got some money going into my accounts, but it won't be settled up until the end of today so I'll get todays closing prices.  I'm going to be somewhat pissed if we have a crazy 10% rally today just in time for my orders to go through, only to drop back down. 

What the god damn fuck?  Market was only up 2.5% when trump came out, now it's up 9.3%.  How does declaring a national emergency shoot the price up 7% in an hour?! That's one of the quickest increases I have ever seen.  Looking very likely that I missed being able to buy the crash at all.  Bummer for me. 

ETA: It's almost like the stock market is crazy irrational and unpredictable in the short term.  I follow my IPS and invest the money as it becomes available while disregarding prices and politics...but fuck it sucks seeing the market make massive gains immediately before I make a purchase. 
« Last Edit: March 13, 2020, 02:26:16 PM by frugalnacho »

talltexan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6443 on: March 13, 2020, 02:41:49 PM »
I am out of firepower. This 25% off sale comes to an end for me today.


Somewhere I read that early in the Great Depression, stocks kept dropping because everyone who had the guts to buy falling stock ran out of purchase money. So @achvfi, thanks for proving that the mighty Thorstach right. The best worst is yet to come!

There is a great graphic I saw earlier showing the time from bear to bottom in past bear markets.  It's months usually. Sooo, keep that powder dry for a spell.

Currently, I think people are just holding on to dry powder until time to rush back in.

Seems to be a bull rush this morning.

Yeah wtf man.  I got some money going into my accounts, but it won't be settled up until the end of today so I'll get todays closing prices.  I'm going to be somewhat pissed if we have a crazy 10% rally today just in time for my orders to go through, only to drop back down.  I know I can't time the market, and my IPS says dump the money in ASAP, so that's what I did, but it will bum me out a bit if that happens.  Kind of hoping for the market to crater again.

Narrator: as it turns out, @frugalnacho did have to contend with a 9.3% rally.

des999

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6444 on: March 13, 2020, 02:45:11 PM »
Well it is supposed to be a dead cat bounce, but Trump is giving a press conference later today, so run for your lives!

Praise be to Odin.  Maybe Trump can cause another steep decline before market close.

I got some money going into my accounts, but it won't be settled up until the end of today so I'll get todays closing prices.  I'm going to be somewhat pissed if we have a crazy 10% rally today just in time for my orders to go through, only to drop back down. 

What the god damn fuck?  Market was only up 2.5% when trump came out, now it's up 9.3%.  How does declaring a national emergency shoot the price up 7% in an hour?! That's one of the quickest increases I have ever seen.  Looking very likely that I missed being able to buy the crash at all.  Bummer for me. 

ETA: It's almost like the stock market is crazy irrational and unpredictable in the short term.  I follow my IPS and invest the money as it becomes available while disregarding prices and politics...but fuck it sucks seeing the market make massive gains immediately before I make a purchase.

GD, same thing just happened to me.  I almost moved my bonds yesterday, but I waited today, go figure.

achvfi

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6445 on: March 13, 2020, 02:49:50 PM »
Well it is supposed to be a dead cat bounce, but Trump is giving a press conference later today, so run for your lives!

Praise be to Odin.  Maybe Trump can cause another steep decline before market close.

I got some money going into my accounts, but it won't be settled up until the end of today so I'll get todays closing prices.  I'm going to be somewhat pissed if we have a crazy 10% rally today just in time for my orders to go through, only to drop back down. 

What the god damn fuck?  Market was only up 2.5% when trump came out, now it's up 9.3%.  How does declaring a national emergency shoot the price up 7% in an hour?! That's one of the quickest increases I have ever seen.  Looking very likely that I missed being able to buy the crash at all.  Bummer for me. 

ETA: It's almost like the stock market is crazy irrational and unpredictable in the short term.  I follow my IPS and invest the money as it becomes available while disregarding prices and politics...but fuck it sucks seeing the market make massive gains immediately before I make a purchase.

GD, same thing just happened to me.  I almost moved my bonds yesterday, but I waited today, go figure.
Why buy mutual funds that go effect at end of day and you have no control on? when you can buy ETFs at market prices. Am I missing something?

des999

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6446 on: March 13, 2020, 02:58:27 PM »
Well it is supposed to be a dead cat bounce, but Trump is giving a press conference later today, so run for your lives!

Praise be to Odin.  Maybe Trump can cause another steep decline before market close.

I got some money going into my accounts, but it won't be settled up until the end of today so I'll get todays closing prices.  I'm going to be somewhat pissed if we have a crazy 10% rally today just in time for my orders to go through, only to drop back down. 

What the god damn fuck?  Market was only up 2.5% when trump came out, now it's up 9.3%.  How does declaring a national emergency shoot the price up 7% in an hour?! That's one of the quickest increases I have ever seen.  Looking very likely that I missed being able to buy the crash at all.  Bummer for me. 

ETA: It's almost like the stock market is crazy irrational and unpredictable in the short term.  I follow my IPS and invest the money as it becomes available while disregarding prices and politics...but fuck it sucks seeing the market make massive gains immediately before I make a purchase.

GD, same thing just happened to me.  I almost moved my bonds yesterday, but I waited today, go figure.
Why buy mutual funds that go effect at end of day and you have no control on? when you can buy ETFs at market prices. Am I missing something?

the only bonds I had were in my old 401k, and my only option was to sell those for equities.  Hence, why I had to wait for market close price.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6447 on: March 13, 2020, 02:59:28 PM »
Well it is supposed to be a dead cat bounce, but Trump is giving a press conference later today, so run for your lives!

Praise be to Odin.  Maybe Trump can cause another steep decline before market close.

I got some money going into my accounts, but it won't be settled up until the end of today so I'll get todays closing prices.  I'm going to be somewhat pissed if we have a crazy 10% rally today just in time for my orders to go through, only to drop back down. 

What the god damn fuck?  Market was only up 2.5% when trump came out, now it's up 9.3%.  How does declaring a national emergency shoot the price up 7% in an hour?! That's one of the quickest increases I have ever seen.  Looking very likely that I missed being able to buy the crash at all.  Bummer for me. 

ETA: It's almost like the stock market is crazy irrational and unpredictable in the short term.  I follow my IPS and invest the money as it becomes available while disregarding prices and politics...but fuck it sucks seeing the market make massive gains immediately before I make a purchase.

It's not that unpredictable, a bunch of people went short this week as losses mounted and needed to cover at any price during the bounce.  This happened during the tech collapse and during 2009 - market can't just crash straight down or else that becomes predictable, so you get people piling in to shorts / hedges only to exacerbate their losses, freak out, and short cover.  Be prepared for more volatility (if that is even possible) next week!

ExitViaTheCashRamp

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6448 on: March 13, 2020, 03:32:49 PM »
https://isthisthetop.com/


Dow Jones New York +9.36% 23185.62 +1985.00
Nasdaq      New York +9.35%  7874.88  +673.07
S&P 500    Chicago   +9.29%  2711.02  +230.38

 And we thank Big Brother thorstach for increasing the Vanguard dividend ration.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2020, 03:35:08 PM by ExitViaTheCashRamp »

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6449 on: March 13, 2020, 04:17:13 PM »
It's not that unpredictable, a bunch of people went short this week as losses mounted and needed to cover at any price during the bounce.  This happened during the tech collapse and during 2009 - market can't just crash straight down or else that becomes predictable, so you get people piling in to shorts / hedges only to exacerbate their losses, freak out, and short cover.  Be prepared for more volatility (if that is even possible) next week!

"Any event, once it has occurred, can be made to appear inevitable by a competent historian." - Simonson