Top is in

[Brother Esau]

https://www.ccn.com/history-says-a-february-stock-market-crash-is-inevitable/

Sell!!!

I called it. You can thank me later.

[aboatguy]

It went down, it is still dropping.......


To paraphrase Herman Wouk, Panic!, in times of danger or in doubt run in circles scream and shout....... or channel Jack Bogle and just do nothing...   I  prefer the later..and the top is still not in.

and it's still dropping

[Monerexia]

It went down, it is still dropping.......


To paraphrase Herman Wouk, Panic!, in times of danger or in doubt run in circles scream and shout....... or channel Jack Bogle and just do nothing...   I  prefer the later..and the top is still not in.

and it's still dropping

We need a nice, monstrous, five-year sale on stocks. Top, my friend, hope you were in.

[Brother Esau]

It went down, it is still dropping.......


To paraphrase Herman Wouk, Panic!, in times of danger or in doubt run in circles scream and shout....... or channel Jack Bogle and just do nothing...   I  prefer the later..and the top is still not in.

and it's still dropping

We need a nice, monstrous, five-year sale on stocks. Top, my friend, hope you were in.

thorstach would be all.....

[Roland of Gilead]

Down $3,500 after the first day of trading. Don't doubt ur vibe.

To be honest, I also would have expected the impact on supply chains would have had more of an effect on revenue and share prices. Good luck with the bet.

I closed it out today at $3.65 for a meager $3,500 profit.

I was too early with the purchase, I admit.  I am lucky to get out with a profit as this market is much more resilient than I thought.

That being said, the supply chains are going to be interrupted and there is still a great chance that the S&P500 will correct in March or April significantly (10%).   The problem is it is way too hard to predict how the government might step in to shore things up.

[frugledoc]

Down $3,500 after the first day of trading. Don't doubt ur vibe.

To be honest, I also would have expected the impact on supply chains would have had more of an effect on revenue and share prices. Good luck with the bet.

I closed it out today at $3.65 for a meager $3,500 profit.

I was too early with the purchase, I admit.  I am lucky to get out with a profit as this market is much more resilient than I thought.

That being said, the supply chains are going to be interrupted and there is still a great chance that the S&P500 will correct in March or April significantly (10%).   The problem is it is way too hard to predict how the government might step in to shore things up.

So you have learned your lesson and won't gamble in future?

[Roland of Gilead]

So you have learned your lesson and won't gamble in future?

Yep!  I am going to use the money and take a cruise.

[JAYSLOL]

So you have learned your lesson and won't gamble in future?

Yep!  I am going to use the money and take a cruise.

I heard there’s some “killer” deals on cruises “going around” right now. 

[HPstache]

Gold is back up around $1,650.  Top is in!

[BigMoneyJim]

Gold is back up around $1,650.  Top is in!

I'm oddly reminded of when US Treasury bonds were downgraded. The reaction was a stock selloff and a rush off money into...US Treasury Bonds.

By the way, did you mean gold top is in or US stocks top is in?

[dragoncar]

Gold is back up around $1,650.  Top is in!

Yeah but earnings is going to be a reality check!

[HPstache]

Gold is back up around $1,650.  Top is in!

I'm oddly reminded of when US Treasury bonds were downgraded. The reaction was a stock selloff and a rush off money into...US Treasury Bonds.

By the way, did you mean gold top is in or US stocks top is in?

I mean, the TOP is in.  Gold told me so.

[Wintergreen78]

Gold is back up around $1,650.  Top is in!

I'm oddly reminded of when US Treasury bonds were downgraded. The reaction was a stock selloff and a rush off money into...US Treasury Bonds.

By the way, did you mean gold top is in or US stocks top is in?

I mean, the TOP is in.  Gold told me so.

I thought you aren’t supposed to time the gold market. Just hold it for the dividends. If you want to trade you should play with T-bill volatility.

[Monerexia]

Gold is back up around $1,650.  Top is in!

Yeah but earnings is going to be a reality check!

Yes. I just checked--XIV is breaking down.

[PhilB]

Gold Top is In!

[wienerdog]

Down $3,500 after the first day of trading. Don't doubt ur vibe.

To be honest, I also would have expected the impact on supply chains would have had more of an effect on revenue and share prices. Good luck with the bet.

I closed it out today at $3.65 for a meager $3,500 profit.

 Can you type up the steps you did and what you thought the outcome might be (explain the step) for an idiot like me that doesn't understand options?

[Roland of Gilead]

Can you type up the steps you did and what you thought the outcome might be (explain the step) for an idiot like me that doesn't understand options?

1) Read news, start to worry that maybe China is important to the world economy after all

2) Look at 401K, which is largely in the S&P500 and is at all time high

3) Buy 100 SPY $325 puts for $3.30, March 20, 2020 expiration

4) Watch everyone cackle as the market goes even higher

5) Watch with sadness as puts drop to $2

6) Finally get lucky on a market dip and sell puts for $3.65

7) Realize gambling is a problem, so book a cruise to Asia for April with the money made

8) (future)  Get really sad in March when market drops 10% and puts are worth $10 and 401K has dropped $150,000

[wienerdog]

Gold is back up around $1,650.  Top is in!

I'm oddly reminded of when US Treasury bonds were downgraded. The reaction was a stock selloff and a rush off money into...US Treasury Bonds.

By the way, did you mean gold top is in or US stocks top is in?

I mean, the TOP is in.  Gold told me so.

Just hold it for the dividends.

No dividends in gold.  You just let it go from 1600 to 2000.  Oh Gold top isn't in.

[wienerdog]

Can you type up the steps you did and what you thought the outcome might be (explain the step) for an idiot like me that doesn't understand options?

3) Buy 100 SPY $325 puts for $3.30, March 20, 2020 expiration

Who determines the "spread"?  So you were betting that SPY would go higher than $325 by March?

8) (future)  Get really sad in March when market drops 10% and puts are worth $10 and 401K has dropped $150,000

LOL that the way it always works.

[Roland of Gilead]

Who determines the "spread"?  So you were betting that SPY would go higher than $325 by March?

No, the exact opposite.  I was betting that the SPY would dip below $325 by March 20 expiration, although since puts (and calls) have a thing called time value, the underlying equity does not *have* to dip down that far in order for the put to increase in price and make a profit *as long as it does it well before expiration*.

So for instance Monday, if the market is down another 1% and the SPY drops to around $330, the $325 puts will go to around $4.50 even though they are still $5 out of the money.   If it continues to drop during the week and hits $325, the puts will go to $8 or so.   An actual 10% drop from the $330 area to the $300 area would make the $33,000 worth of puts worth about $250,000.

[wienerdog]

Who determines the "spread"?  So you were betting that SPY would go higher than $325 by March?

No, the exact opposite.  I was betting that the SPY would dip below $325 by March 20 expiration, although since puts (and calls) have a thing called time value, the underlying equity does not *have* to dip down that far in order for the put to increase in price and make a profit *as long as it does it well before expiration*.

So for instance Monday, if the market is down another 1% and the SPY drops to around $330, the $325 puts will go to around $4.50 even though they are still $5 out of the money.   If it continues to drop during the week and hits $325, the puts will go to $8 or so.   An actual 10% drop from the $330 area to the $300 area would make the $33,000 worth of puts worth about $250,000.

But you only had 100 of them at $3.30 so $330.  Then it would have been worth 2500?

[Roland of Gilead]

But you only had 100 of them at $3.30 so $330.  Then it would have been worth 2500?

In general when people say they bought "a call" or "a put" they mean one contract.   A call or put contract represents the right to buy (for a call) or sell (for a put) quantity 100 of the equity (shares).

So buying 100 puts with a $325 strike means I have bought the right to sell 10,000 shares of SPY to someone for a price of $325 each, or $3,250,000.  I don't *have* to sell anything to them, but I have the right to sell 10,000 shares at that price if I choose.  Obviously if SPY is $315 I would choose to sell 10,000 shares (all 100 contracts) at $325.

[dragoncar]

Gold is back up around $1,650.  Top is in!

I'm oddly reminded of when US Treasury bonds were downgraded. The reaction was a stock selloff and a rush off money into...US Treasury Bonds.

By the way, did you mean gold top is in or US stocks top is in?

I mean, the TOP is in.  Gold told me so.

Just hold it for the dividends.

No dividends in gold.  You just let it go from 1600 to 2000.  Oh Gold top isn't in.

They cut the dividends?  Holy crap SELLSELLSELL

[aspiringnomad]

Down $3,500 after the first day of trading. Don't doubt ur vibe.

To be honest, I also would have expected the impact on supply chains would have had more of an effect on revenue and share prices. Good luck with the bet.

I closed it out today at $3.65 for a meager $3,500 profit.

I was too early with the purchase, I admit.  I am lucky to get out with a profit as this market is much more resilient than I thought.

That being said, the supply chains are going to be interrupted and there is still a great chance that the S&P500 will correct in March or April significantly (10%).   The problem is it is way too hard to predict how the government might step in to shore things up.

Way to close out with a profit!

[MustacheAndaHalf]

Title of that CNN article: "History Says a February Stock Market Crash Is Inevitable"

Contents: "A stock market crash may not be in the cards tomorrow, but it could still be on the horizon, some analysts believe. At some point, the market’s beaming optimism will grow cold. No one can be certain of when a stock market correction will take place."

I guess "some analysts" must be named "History".  And by "inevitable" CNN meant "no one can be certain when".
And the article's author discloses just two positions: long on two tech companies.  So... not exactly a believer in their own writing.

Let me try my hand at this fear mongering:
"10-year P/E approaching dot-com bubble heights"
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

[Monerexia]

Run rabbits run let's keep this sale going.

[Travis]

According to Marketwatch the market is up today because the number of new cases of COVID-19 is dropping. Coronavirus top is in!

(Seriously, I hope so. My employer has an office in China and I'm worried about my coworkers.)

The hell it is.  We just went from a handful of cases to 600 in a week here in South Korea. 

[Mrs. D.]

Bit of an investing noob here......does "top is in" refer to the peak of the stock market for this economic cycle? People are trying to call it before the correction? If not, can someone please explain? TIA.

[markbike528CBX]

does "top is in" refer to the peak of the stock market for this economic cycle? yes
People are trying to call it before the correction? yes
If not, can someone please explain?

Since it is torturesome to ask you to read THIS thread in full, please refer to the Original Post (OP) of August 2017.  Since then the ORIGINAL POSTER (OP), thorstache, has called THE TOP of the stock market many times. The TOP call is typically folllowed by a rally.

This thread exists to poke fun at market timing/predictions in general.

If you had sold all equities right at the first post, you would have forgone double digit percentage gains.

[Mrs. D.]

does "top is in" refer to the peak of the stock market for this economic cycle? yes
People are trying to call it before the correction? yes
If not, can someone please explain?

Since it is torturesome to ask you to read THIS thread in full, please refer to the Original Post (OP) of August 2017.  Since then the ORIGINAL POSTER (OP), thorstache, has called THE TOP of the stock market many times. The TOP call is typically folllowed by a rally.

This thread exists to poke fun at market timing/predictions in general.

If you had sold all equities right at the first post, you would have forgone double digit percentage gains.

Thanks, markbike. I poked through a few pages to get the gist. Wasn't going to read 118 pages of inside jokes, gifs and graphs. Not a market timer myself, but the allure of being able to sell at just the right moment is pretty tempting. That crystal ball would be worth a lot.

[Wintergreen78]

does "top is in" refer to the peak of the stock market for this economic cycle? yes
People are trying to call it before the correction? yes
If not, can someone please explain?

Since it is torturesome to ask you to read THIS thread in full, please refer to the Original Post (OP) of August 2017.  Since then the ORIGINAL POSTER (OP), thorstache, has called THE TOP of the stock market many times. The TOP call is typically folllowed by a rally.

This thread exists to poke fun at market timing/predictions in general.

If you had sold all equities right at the first post, you would have forgone double digit percentage gains.

Thanks, markbike. I poked through a few pages to get the gist. Wasn't going to read 118 pages of inside jokes, gifs and graphs. Not a market timer myself, but the allure of being able to sell at just the right moment is pretty tempting. That crystal ball would be worth a lot.

Read every page of this thread. Just print them out and leave them next to your toilet.

[TomTX]

Read every page of this thread. Just print them out and leave them next to your toilet.

Fold it lengthwise after reading, and you have your supply of double-ply close at hand. ;)

[Roland of Gilead]

There was another thread, awhile back (like 1929 I think) where poster Irving Fisher said the market had reached a permanently high plateau.

"The stock market crash of 1929 and the subsequent Great Depression cost Fisher much of his personal wealth and academic reputation. He famously predicted, nine days before the crash, that stock prices had "reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."[26] Irving Fisher stated on October 21 that the market was "only shaking out of the lunatic fringe" and went on to explain why he felt the prices still had not caught up with their real value and should go much higher. On Wednesday, October 23, he announced in a banker's meeting "security values in most instances were not inflated." For months after the Crash, he continued to assure investors that a recovery was just around the corner. "

[aspiringnomad]

Read every page of this thread. Just print them out and leave them next to your toilet.

Fold it lengthwise after reading, and you have your supply of double-ply close at hand. ;)

Forever roll top is forever in.

[TomTX]

There was another thread, awhile back (like 1929 I think) where poster Irving Fisher said the market had reached a permanently high plateau.

"The stock market crash of 1929 and the subsequent Great Depression cost Fisher much of his personal wealth and academic reputation. He famously predicted, nine days before the crash, that stock prices had "reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."[26] Irving Fisher stated on October 21 that the market was "only shaking out of the lunatic fringe" and went on to explain why he felt the prices still had not caught up with their real value and should go much higher. On Wednesday, October 23, he announced in a banker's meeting "security values in most instances were not inflated." For months after the Crash, he continued to assure investors that a recovery was just around the corner. "

Yet another prediction of expected stock market behavior shown to be terribly wrong.

I expect there will be another major crash. I don't claim to know whether it will be tomorrow or 10 years from now.

[Monerexia]

There was another thread, awhile back (like 1929 I think) where poster Irving Fisher said the market had reached a permanently high plateau.

"The stock market crash of 1929 and the subsequent Great Depression cost Fisher much of his personal wealth and academic reputation. He famously predicted, nine days before the crash, that stock prices had "reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."[26] Irving Fisher stated on October 21 that the market was "only shaking out of the lunatic fringe" and went on to explain why he felt the prices still had not caught up with their real value and should go much higher. On Wednesday, October 23, he announced in a banker's meeting "security values in most instances were not inflated." For months after the Crash, he continued to assure investors that a recovery was just around the corner. "

Yet another prediction of expected stock market behavior shown to be terribly wrong.

I expect there will be another major crash. I don't claim to know whether it will be tomorrow or 10 years from now.

Crashes, top-callers and running rabbits are my forever friends--they ensure flash sales on assets time and again. Dry powder and stable revenue streams ftw.

[Roland of Gilead]

stable revenue streams ftw.

Just make sure that what you think is stable, actually is stable.

[Monerexia]

stable revenue streams ftw.

Just make sure that what you think is stable, actually is stable.

Agreed!

[dragoncar]

Read every page of this thread. Just print them out and leave them next to your toilet.

Fold it lengthwise after reading, and you have your supply of double-ply close at hand. ;)

Forever roll top is forever in.

Wow that’s a real thing.  Is it cheaper than regular rolls?

When you said forever roll I thought more like this:

[Roland of Gilead]

Grrr...futures are showing Monday is coming in as a hard crash.   Oh well, who needed another $100,000 on those puts...would just have been more taxes.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Grrr...futures are showing Monday is coming in as a hard crash.   Oh well, who needed another $100,000 on those puts...would just have been more taxes.

Well, if SPY does fall below 325 before March 20th, you will have made it a lot more fun to watch!  Not entirely sure if you will be better off since you also comment on making money when this position loses money, but it has given me some interest to watch the market on Monday since you seem to think something big is about to happen.

[Roland of Gilead]

Grrr...futures are showing Monday is coming in as a hard crash.   Oh well, who needed another $100,000 on those puts...would just have been more taxes.

Well, if SPY does fall below 325 before March 20th, you will have made it a lot more fun to watch!  Not entirely sure if you will be better off since you also comment on making money when this position loses money, but it has given me some interest to watch the market on Monday since you seem to think something big is about to happen.

It isn't as fun to watch when I have closed out the puts for a $3500 gain and yet still hold well over a million in a 401K that is mostly in the S&P500.

[Monerexia]

Grrr...futures are showing Monday is coming in as a hard crash.   Oh well, who needed another $100,000 on those puts...would just have been more taxes.

Well, if SPY does fall below 325 before March 20th, you will have made it a lot more fun to watch!  Not entirely sure if you will be better off since you also comment on making money when this position loses money, but it has given me some interest to watch the market on Monday since you seem to think something big is about to happen.

It isn't as fun to watch when I have closed out the puts for a $3500 gain and yet still hold well over a million in a 401K that is mostly in the S&P500.

SELL SELL SELL!!!!!

[aspiringnomad]

Read every page of this thread. Just print them out and leave them next to your toilet.

Fold it lengthwise after reading, and you have your supply of double-ply close at hand. ;)

Forever roll top is forever in.

Wow that’s a real thing.  Is it cheaper than regular rolls?

When you said forever roll I thought more like this:

Oh it's real. Charmin sells it for $30, oddly with the stand included. Not sure what that works out to on a per square basis, but when factoring divorce attorney costs, probably cheaper than buying this forever roll for your family:

[vand]

Markets are very stretched and due a correction, maybe a significant one.
I've partially hedged my portfolio by shorting S&P and FTSE100 from this level. Laugh all you want.

For disclosure: 

I took advantage of the FTSE's dip below its 200dma to cover my short position for 190pts profit, and also to slug more money into my FTSE tracker.

Still holding S&P short position, currently 74pts in loss. Happy enough to let this run as its only a small percentage of my overall position.

Covered all short positions now. Didnt trally make much from S&P short but make some decent profit from FTSE shorts.

My 25% precious metal allocation is my only portfolio hedge right now. And what a great hesge it is proving.

[frugalnacho]

There was another thread, awhile back (like 1929 I think) where poster Irving Fisher said the market had reached a permanently high plateau.

"The stock market crash of 1929 and the subsequent Great Depression cost Fisher much of his personal wealth and academic reputation. He famously predicted, nine days before the crash, that stock prices had "reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."[26] Irving Fisher stated on October 21 that the market was "only shaking out of the lunatic fringe" and went on to explain why he felt the prices still had not caught up with their real value and should go much higher. On Wednesday, October 23, he announced in a banker's meeting "security values in most instances were not inflated." For months after the Crash, he continued to assure investors that a recovery was just around the corner. "

How could stocks have "reached a permanently high plateau", but also "not have caught up with their real value and should go much higher"? Is my reading comprehension top in, or are those statements completely contradictory?

[Roland of Gilead]

There was another thread, awhile back (like 1929 I think) where poster Irving Fisher said the market had reached a permanently high plateau.

"The stock market crash of 1929 and the subsequent Great Depression cost Fisher much of his personal wealth and academic reputation. He famously predicted, nine days before the crash, that stock prices had "reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."[26] Irving Fisher stated on October 21 that the market was "only shaking out of the lunatic fringe" and went on to explain why he felt the prices still had not caught up with their real value and should go much higher. On Wednesday, October 23, he announced in a banker's meeting "security values in most instances were not inflated." For months after the Crash, he continued to assure investors that a recovery was just around the corner. "

How could stocks have "reached a permanently high plateau", but also "not have caught up with their real value and should go much higher"? Is my reading comprehension top in, or are those statements completely contradictory?

I think he was saying that stonks only go up, so essentially he was the first member of https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets before there was even an internet

[vand]

There was another thread, awhile back (like 1929 I think) where poster Irving Fisher said the market had reached a permanently high plateau.

"The stock market crash of 1929 and the subsequent Great Depression cost Fisher much of his personal wealth and academic reputation. He famously predicted, nine days before the crash, that stock prices had "reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."[26] Irving Fisher stated on October 21 that the market was "only shaking out of the lunatic fringe" and went on to explain why he felt the prices still had not caught up with their real value and should go much higher. On Wednesday, October 23, he announced in a banker's meeting "security values in most instances were not inflated." For months after the Crash, he continued to assure investors that a recovery was just around the corner. "

How could stocks have "reached a permanently high plateau", but also "not have caught up with their real value and should go much higher"? Is my reading comprehension top in, or are those statements completely contradictory?

Quite easy.. the type of bubble sentiment which justifies the idea that any price is worth paying.

[Brother Esau]

Uh oh...

[frugalnacho]

There was another thread, awhile back (like 1929 I think) where poster Irving Fisher said the market had reached a permanently high plateau.

"The stock market crash of 1929 and the subsequent Great Depression cost Fisher much of his personal wealth and academic reputation. He famously predicted, nine days before the crash, that stock prices had "reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."[26] Irving Fisher stated on October 21 that the market was "only shaking out of the lunatic fringe" and went on to explain why he felt the prices still had not caught up with their real value and should go much higher. On Wednesday, October 23, he announced in a banker's meeting "security values in most instances were not inflated." For months after the Crash, he continued to assure investors that a recovery was just around the corner. "

How could stocks have "reached a permanently high plateau", but also "not have caught up with their real value and should go much higher"? Is my reading comprehension top in, or are those statements completely contradictory?

I think he was saying that stonks only go up, so essentially he was the first member of https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets before there was even an internet

So did he not know what a plateau is, or do I?