Top is in

[DarkandStormy]

Raindrop
New top

[Travis]

Market is ‘clearly near to a top,’ says longtime bull Jeremy Siegel - https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/20/longtime-bull-jeremy-siegel-says-market-near-to-a-top.html

Top ajacent

Near a top=not quite a steep of a climb?  Less than 10% growth is still growth.

[grettman]

Next month we will be talk about a Jeremy Siegel article that talks about how the market has so much more room to run and that we aren't even close yet.

[afuera]

Raindrop
New top

Ugh, I hate you. That's gonna be stuck in my head the rest of the day now!!

[DarkandStormy]

Raindrop
New top

Ugh, I hate you. That's gonna be stuck in my head the rest of the day now!!

Muahahahaha.  Goal achieved!

[Optimiser]

New top, but I think my 401(k) is not in the market right now while my employer switches providers.  I was hoping for a big drop.

[secondcor521]

2594.38 @ closing today.....   IMO top is not in......

Where's 2600????

It's heeere.  Aboot time.  Top is in.

[OurTown]

I thought top was in last month?  Oh well, my bad.

[RWD]

I have captured this historic top moment in a screenshot. Surely this is the highest arbitrary number that can never be topped.

[RWD]

My mistake. It had a little bit more left to give. But as you can clearly see from looking at the big picture there is nowhere to go from here but down.

[Retire-Canada]

...top is in.

[techwiz]

What goes up...might just keep going....?

[Retire-Canada]

or not.

[techwiz]

That's why the buy and hold strategy is better than trying to time the market... ^^^^ looks like the wrong time to get out of the market. 

[DS]

Top is in.

Are you willing to take a leap of faith, or become an old man filled with regret, waiting to die alone?

[Kaspian]

I wish I could understand why I always return to this thread and it consistently makes me laugh?  There must be a word for "schadenfreude because somebody said something ridiculous"? 

Top is in.

[Exflyboy]

or not.

Please tell me this is photoshopped!!!!

[secondcor521]

I must say these are rather high tops we are at now.

[BTDretire]

You people know nothing, today we have a new high in the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq!
The top is in.

[Retire-Canada]

[soccerluvof4]

Hmmm......new record. Guess well know in the near future but why keep trying to predict it.

[Caoineag]

or not.

Please tell me this is photoshopped!!!!

+1 As a roller coaster lover, that photo is giving me heart palpitations...

[DavidAnnArbor]

Jack Bogle: "The biggest mistake investors make is looking backward at performance and thinking it’ll recur in the future."

[aboatguy]

2600+ today but it couldn't stick the landing so a new intra-day top and a new closing top... Looks like we missed a 2600+ closing by just a hair's breadth.   

[ILikeDividends]

2600+ today but it couldn't stick the landing so a new intra-day top and a new closing top... Looks like we missed a 2600+ closing by just a hair's breadth.   

That's it.  As clear a sign of doom as ever there were one. Anyone got a lighter I can borrow?

[dragoncar]

[Financial.Velociraptor]

Front and second month WTI crude and Henry Hub gas futures are in backwardation.  Top is clearly in. 

[Mr. Boh]

Weekly close above 2600. Top is not in. Where are you Thorstache?

[aboatguy]

New record closing (2602.42) however, I don't believe we've reached the TOP!

[nereo]

New record closing (2602.42) however, I don't believe we've reached the TOP!

...perhaps you should go back and re-read the 25 pages of this thread :-P
Top is in!

[nereo]

I found this tidbit interesting and didn't know where else to post it. 

Phrased differently, anyone heeding strategists’ calls should realize that next year’s crop bears a close resemblance to virtually every forecast they’ve made in the past. Data compiled by Bloomberg show that since 1999, Wall Street prognosticators have never once predicted a down year, putting the average annual gain at 9 percent.

...in other words, the 'smartest' financial minds predicted a bull market every single year, even in the bear markets of 2000, 2001, 2002 & 2008.  They've missed every single down market.
But don't worry, ..."[for 2018] the average estimate of nine strategists tracked by Bloomberg points ... to another year of all-time highs"

So maybe the top is not in after-all!

[secondcor521]

Conversely, many bearish analysts have missed many bull years, including 2003, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016, and very likely 2017.

Top is in.

[Radagast]

Phrased differently, anyone heeding strategists’ calls should realize that next year’s crop bears a close resemblance to virtually every forecast they’ve made in the past. Data compiled by Bloomberg show that since 1999, Wall Street prognosticators have never once predicted a down year, putting the average annual gain at 9 percent.

...in other words, the 'smartest' financial minds predicted a bull market every single year, even in the bear markets of 2000, 2001, 2002 & 2008.  They've missed every single down market.
But don't worry, ..."[for 2018] the average estimate of nine strategists tracked by Bloomberg points ... to another year of all-time highs"

So maybe the top is not in after-all!

If you had put $1,000 into VTSMX every month since January 1999 you would have achieved an IRR of 9.09% (as of October 31). Those experts are pretty smart I guess.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio#analysisResults

[sol]

Those experts are pretty smart I guess.

Nah.  They predict 9% because that's been the historical long term return.  They don't guess correctly, they just predict the backward-looking average.

[Aegishjalmur]

Wells Fargo Securities predicts a 70% chance of recession sometime in the next 17 months.

http://www.ocregister.com/2017/11/22/wells-fargo-formula-shows-recession-looming-in-next-18-months/

Of course the same guy said earlier this month that he has no data to base it on but his gut tells him between mid 2019, and 2021 we will have a recession.

http://www.tdtnews.com/news/article_cd83ba76-c029-11e7-96c2-9f63c5ab534b.html

That means in the last 30 days they have now predicted we will have a recession sometime in the next 35 months.

I guess Top is In.

[Radagast]

Those experts are pretty smart I guess.

Nah.  They predict 9% because that's been the historical long term return.  They don't guess correctly, they just predict the backward-looking average.

That's what we do on this here forum, and I always figured we were pretty smart...

[nereo]

Those experts are pretty smart I guess.

Nah.  They predict 9% because that's been the historical long term return.  They don't guess correctly, they just predict the backward-looking average.

That's what we do on this here forum, and I always figured we were pretty smart...

I've seen no evidence of that to date...

[anisotropy]

Those experts are pretty smart I guess.

Nah.  They predict 9% because that's been the historical long term return.  They don't guess correctly, they just predict the backward-looking average.

That's what we do on this here forum, and I always figured we were pretty smart...

hate to break it to you, but I am the only smart one here

[fattest_foot]

Wells Fargo Securities predicts a 70% chance of recession sometime in the next 17 months.

http://www.ocregister.com/2017/11/22/wells-fargo-formula-shows-recession-looming-in-next-18-months/

Of course the same guy said earlier this month that he has no data to base it on but his gut tells him between mid 2019, and 2021 we will have a recession.

http://www.tdtnews.com/news/article_cd83ba76-c029-11e7-96c2-9f63c5ab534b.html

That means in the last 30 days they have now predicted we will have a recession sometime in the next 35 months.

I guess Top is In.

I'm sure it will be followed up by "And really, if we haven't had one by 2021, then surely within the next 18 months after that!"

[Mighty-Dollar]

Top is in on: April 11, 2017

I love reading these posts months later. In less than 7 months the S&P is up about 11 1/2% since this post.

[Tyson]

My stache on April 11th, when this thread was started:

$301k

My stache as of today:

$330k

Huh, I guess the top wasn't in.

And my stache today is:

$353k

Well, there you have it - increase of $52,000 since thorstach predicted the top.

[Monocle Money Mouth]

My stache on April 11th, when this thread was started:

$301k

My stache as of today:

$330k

Huh, I guess the top wasn't in.

And my stache today is:

$353k

Well, there you have it - increase of $52,000 since thorstach predicted the top.

Is that all market gains or gains plus contributions?

[Bateaux]

Stash went up 14K yesterday alone.   Top definitely in.

[nereo]

Jeff Bezos just flipped his top.  >$100B NW. 
Top will be delivered free in 2 days?

[Davids]

Many of these same analysts who claimed market would crash if Trump won or have been saying top is in are now thinking the market will increase at least 10% in 2018. Some have the S&P getting up to 2950. Have not seen a 3000 prediction yet for 2018.

[FireLane]

After reading 25+ pages of this thread, I'm picturing thorstach as Captain Ahab, forever sailing the oceans in obsessive pursuit of the elusive Great White Top.

[JAYSLOL]

Jeff Bezos just flipped his top.  >$100B NW. 
Top will be delivered free in 2 days?

Only if you have Top Prime, if not you get a dead cat in the mail in 8-10 business days

[aboatguy]

After reading 25+ pages of this thread, I'm picturing thorstach as Captain Ahab, forever sailing the oceans in obsessive pursuit of the elusive Great White Top.

found the big white top....don't know if it is great

[aboatguy]

2616 but the top is not in

[fattest_foot]

So we're now at the point where even a massive 20% drop would only take us to mid-2016 levels.

Your average 10% correction would be where we were in March or April of this year.