Top is in

[FIRE@50]

All these tops are so tiresome. I long for the days when there was only one known top.

[dandarc]

All these tops are so tiresome. I long for the days when there was only one known top.

There's been no fewer than 4 tops since 1953.

[DadJokes]

All these tops are so tiresome. I long for the days when there was only one known top.

Top
Not a top
Top
Not a top

It's really starting to feel like a Rocky Top

[frugledoc]

Final top is in.

Was it the penultimate final top? 

[Exflyboy]

STOOOP.. TOO MUCH MONEEEEY!...:)

[talltexan]

SP @ 3053 its a  payday top!

While I know there isn't any more room to go up (because, yah, top is in), I also notice that market is always up on payday. What's up with that?!

[Brother Esau]

There is only one true "Top".

[aboatguy]

Another three Top day doesn't look so high from here


 

[SwordGuy]

SP @ 3053 its a  payday top!

While I know there isn't any more room to go up (because, yah, top is in), I also notice that market is always up on payday. What's up with that?!

Because most people are paid on one or two of only 7 days a month.   1st or last day of the month.   15th of the month.   Or on of the 4 Fridays a month.  So if they are buying stocks in their 401K plan, prices would spike on those days.

I always scheduled my extra, above-and-beyond stock buys several days after payday.  Never tracked whether that helped or not.

[Fomerly known as something]

I predict yesterday was the weekly top.  I am .001% away from the next milestone in my 401k

[SwordGuy]

I predict yesterday was the weekly top.  I am .001% away from the next milestone in my 401k

@Fomerly known as something , oh, no!!!  You've jinxed us!   The top is definitely in now!

[aspiringnomad]

I always scheduled my extra, above-and-beyond stock buys several days after payday.  Never tracked whether that helped or not.

My guess is not. I think one of the lessons of this thread is that if it were that easy, someone or somebot with much more resources would have figured it out and it would no longer be a useful strategy. Markets may not be perfectly efficient but I doubt "payday" is the thing to permanently break their efficiency.

[ysette9]

We just put in an order to move another $100k from stocks into bonds ne side The Top Is In.

Okay, well, more like because our plan tells us we need to be at that AA by the time we reach the $ value we just reached. But I’d rather claim it is because of the Top.

[ysette9]

We just put in an order to move another $100k from stocks into bonds ne side The Top Is In.

Okay, well, more like because our plan tells us we need to be at that AA by the time we reach the $ value we just reached. But I’d rather claim it is because of the Top.

[ysette9]

We just put in an order to move another $100k from stocks into bonds ne side The Top Is In.

Okay, well, more like because our plan tells us we need to be at that AA by the time we reach the $ value we just reached. But I’d rather claim it is because of the Top.

[BigMoneyJim]

Triple post top confirmed!

[Travis]

Triple post top confirmed!

Maintaining your asset allocation - good advice. Deserves to be repeated.

[ender]

I'm feeling scared.

TIME TO GO ALL CASH.

amidoinitrite? Actually I think I forgot to rebalance this year. Normally do that on my bday...

Also I'm amused this thread is the only way I learn about what the market does.

[MissNancyPryor]

I will admit I did something yesterday because The Top Is In. 

I changed my taxable brokerage settings to send all dividends, cap gains and interest home instead of reinvesting.  I had intended to let it ride one more year and live off savings through the election and then start consuming those realized funds beginning next December.  Listening to Choose FI with Big ERN this week with a drawdown episode made me rethink it.  Why would I reinvest this year's funds at what is obviously The Top?  I am at greater risk of spending down my cash and not having funds to shovel in on an inevitable slump, and would be more exposed to possibly having to sell stock at The Bottom if I needed cash flow. 

It leaves me with more cash allocated than I planned but as my net worth continues to climb (ridiculously) the percentage of cash becomes less and less before I have spent a nickel.  Realizing also that we could easily have a quick Bottom Bounce like Christmas Eve 2018 it seems wise.  It feels like market timing but as Big ERN commented it will simply be rebalancing at a more strategic time to protect myself.  It is bizarre to go from accumulation to consumption and this move should help keep me from feeling a sense of scarcity-- this is what I have been working for so many years, time to enjoy it!  Next year's fat and fun budget is still only a 2.35% withdrawal rate so what the hell am I worried about.   

All hail The Top.       

[Exflyboy]

I will admit I did something yesterday because The Top Is In. 

I changed my taxable brokerage settings to send all dividends, cap gains and interest home instead of reinvesting.  I had intended to let it ride one more year and live off savings through the election and then start consuming those realized funds beginning next December.  Listening to Choose FI with Big ERN this week with a drawdown episode made me rethink it.  Why would I reinvest this year's funds at what is obviously The Top?  I am at greater risk of spending down my cash and not having funds to shovel in on an inevitable slump, and would be more exposed to possibly having to sell stock at The Bottom if I needed cash flow. 

It leaves me with more cash allocated than I planned but as my net worth continues to climb (ridiculously) the percentage of cash becomes less and less before I have spent a nickel.  Realizing also that we could easily have a quick Bottom Bounce like Christmas Eve 2018 it seems wise.  It feels like market timing but as Big ERN commented it will simply be rebalancing at a more strategic time to protect myself.  It is bizarre to go from accumulation to consumption and this move should help keep me from feeling a sense of scarcity-- this is what I have been working for so many years, time to enjoy it!  Next year's fat and fun budget is still only a 2.35% withdrawal rate so what the hell am I worried about.   

All hail The Top.     

Exactly what I've been doing for three years... The Qdivs simply get pumped into my checking account.

How are you harvesting cap gains though?.. Are you actually selling investments each quarter??

[MissNancyPryor]

No, no selling by me yet.  That will be the next hurdle of drawdown for which to brace myself.   

The gains I realize are from the funds--for example I have a pile of VWUAX and it is significant since the fund managers move in and out of stocks.  In the past it has shown up as a large sum each December and had been reinvested; now I will send it home. 

Such is the downside of having a more active fund along side the quiet VTSAX, but the growth has made covering the taxes out of my former W-2 income totally worth it.  Now that cap gains income will show up in checking and it is still small enough on its own that its affect on my taxes is controllable.   

[Exflyboy]

No, no selling by me yet.  That will be the next hurdle of drawdown for which to brace myself.   

The gains I realize are from the funds--for example I have a pile of VWUAX and it is significant since the fund managers move in and out of stocks.  In the past it has shown up as a large sum each December and had been reinvested; now I will send it home. 

Such is the downside of having a more active fund along side the quiet VTSAX, but the growth has made covering the taxes out of my former W-2 income totally worth it.  Now that cap gains income will show up in checking and it is still small enough on its own that its affect on my taxes is controllable.

Thanks for the explanation. For me I need to control my income closely because ACA subsidies are pretty sensitive to one's MAGI.

Thus VTSAX is better in this regard.

[DoNorth]

I just moved from a 75-25 stock bond allocation to 65-35.  I was planning on doing it anyway around this time I turned 40, but the markets definitely made the decision a lot easier.  Would consider rebalancing all the way to 50-50 if the bull rally continues.

[SwordGuy]

I just moved from a 75-25 stock bond allocation to 65-35.  I was planning on doing it anyway around this time I turned 40, but the markets definitely made the decision a lot easier.  Would consider rebalancing all the way to 50-50 if the bull rally continues.

We're doing the opposite, moving away from bonds and more towards stocks.   But stocks and bonds aren't the bulk of our post-FIRE income.   Starting in January our non-stock/bond post-FIRE income will be above our expenses and our non-stock/bond income will continue to rise during the year.    We have a daughter with Down syndrome to provide for so we're more interested in long term growth. 

[MissNancyPryor]

Thanks for the explanation. For me I need to control my income closely because ACA subsidies are pretty sensitive to one's MAGI.

Thus VTSAX is better in this regard.

Yes, that is something I took into consideration as well and am content to keep that fund's share count constant for now instead of re-investing and continually adding shares.  Everyone including Vanguard admits it is a WAG for how much gains will show up. Last year they sold off a bunch of Johnson&Johnson due to the asbestos talc situation and $7+ per share ended up getting popped in to my brokerage account (surprise! hello tax bomb on top of my W-2 earnings!).  If not careful, that sort of event could mess with me since it only shows up in December after a year of cash flow activity.  But without W-2 earnings it is very manageable as the main source of income and I am now set up to have the luxury to check that total first before selling anything and getting myself into a higher tax bracket.  Vanguard does provide a "to date" $ per share gains note for this fund on their distributions page and I can monitor it along the way to help prepare at least a little bit. 

So, my plan is to fund my life for the following year each December after the gains hit.  I will receive much smaller QDivs and interest all year from the rest of my portfolio, and by the following December when the next pile of gains show up I can decide if I have room on my taxes to sell any stock to make up the needed funding for the following year.  This fund will be the one that I slowly sell chunks of first as I begin to eat my nest egg because it is huge and I will keep my precious AAPL and VTSAX as long as I can and hopefully pass those on to my lucky heirs.  I also have a bunch of this fund in my 401K rollover which I will let cook to produce a rich gravy and keep accumulating shares until I can tap it in another 9 years.     

This was my first sign up on the ACA and so I guessed high on my income.  All that tax stuff, including wondering if I have to file quarterly estimates from dividends and how to reconcile the ACA credits -- all the good knowledge that can help me stay out of trouble while having a great time in life is my new money hobby since moving from the accumulation to consumption phase.  Drawdown is scary but I have to admit I am enjoying the challenge.

I also appreciate this forum so much because smart people come up with good ideas and I can test my plans and ask dumb questions as I go.         

[Exflyboy]

@MissNancyPryor Nice job. My only twinge of remorse I felt is when you mentioned AAPL.

Back in 2008 (If I remember correctly) I bought $100k's worth of AAPL at $88/share. They have since split 7 to 1 and are now worth $240..

Of course I sold AAPL when I made 20%...:( If I had held on I would have an extra almost $2M in my stash today.

[Bernard]

I had to split it with my idiot X Asshat cowardly cheating hubby in 2017 upon divorce but still never sold one share and bought a bunch more when it was in the toilet over the last year or so. 

I saw my X did sell ALL of his when it dropped (I still have legitimate access to our old joint account and all his stuff is still there--I am sure he hasn't considered at all that I can see everything--that is a huge reason I left that brokerage myself!). 

So now he is on his own and he is screwing it up.

Yes, it is bitter Schadenfreude to watch him act so recklessly but he is sooooo not my problem.  I have realized over the last 2 years that I always assigned qualities and character to him that simply were not there and money savvy was one of them-- my 20/20 vision on that has been quite a wake up.   

Looks like you have deep rooted issues concerning the man you promised to spend the rest of your life with. Can you even find peaceful sleep at night?
Just asking . . .

[Exflyboy]

@Bernard Hardly surprising though right? I mean the divorce is pretty fresh and the ex turned out to be exactly NOT the person she thought she married.

It took me about 5 years to get over a similar situation.. I can also say I did rather enjoy some karma that came her way after she walked off with half the money I had saved at the time.

[Kalergie]

@MissNancyPryor : I genuinely feel your pain but the guy seems like he needed a strong women in his life. This would actually make a great separate thread in the mustachian laugh section. "My X trades like a child"
Since you have access to his trades you could keep us in the loop of his dumbass moves. Quite entertaining for us, potentially therapeutic for you. A bit devilish, but who cares? ;D

[TomTX]

Just asking . . .

YTA.

[dragoncar]

Just asking . . .

YTA.

YTMND

[Maenad]

Everyone feel free to add some great Epic Market Timing Disasters to this thread, that would be really fun and new flavor to add here amid the endless ways to say "Top".

Oof. In 2001, DH and I were both working for the same chip fab company. Things had started to go south with the dot-com implosion, and the company announced a great deal - employees could borrow up to a year's salary from the company to buy company stock. It's bound to go back up and this way everyone could make plenty of money off of the inevitable rebound!

What can I say, we were in our mid-20s, and as much as I love him, I listened to DH when I should have listened to my gut and stayed away (he was just a smidgen too eager to take the risk in this case). By the time they called the loans in 2006 we lost $40K. Given our otherwise smart spending/saving/investing decisions we were able to take it without it crushing us, but it still stung. I guess the lesson was "just painful enough".

[MissNancyPryor]

Wow!  What a recipe for disaster.  Is the company even in business any longer?  There must have been many people in the same boat after the tech bust.  Lots of those companies seemed to be heavily populated by young people with a lot of enthusiasm but not that much experience with how quickly it could be snatched away.  We were in that group too and didn't have any healthy cynicism yet.   

[Exflyboy]

Ouch! I have made a number of errors, I wouldn't want to add them all up but I know I lost $40k many times over until I finally just put investments on autopilot.

Top was in last Friday in any case..:)

[Maenad]

Wow!  What a recipe for disaster.  Is the company even in business any longer? 

No, but it took longer than I would have thought. They were bought out by another company a few years ago. I was laid off in 2002 and DH left in 2004, but from what I heard from people still there, business was tough for years before they were acquired. I know the stock price never recovered to where it was when we bought during that debacle. Whatever company acquired them is bigger and better-established - they're expanding the fab we used to work in, a friend drove by recently and saw the construction. We were surprised they were building here in the US, last we'd heard all new fabs were going up in the far east.

Between the dot-com bubble bursting and the meltdown in 2008, there's been some white-knuckled moments for sure!

[wienerdog]

I will admit I did something yesterday because The Top Is In. 

You don't believe in Santa Claus?

And a new Top to boot 3100!

[aboatguy]

sp3100  top is not in!

[aboatguy]

NASDAQ 8504 top is NOT IN!

[wienerdog]

Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

What happens when Thorstach's great market indicator doesn't work?  You create a new one!

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4305231-constructing-better-vix-futures-index

[techwiz]

You don't believe in Santa Claus?

Believe in Thorstach Top is in! 

[secondcor521]

The Dow closed yesterday at 27,691.50.  It closed at 27691.49 today.

Flat Top Is In.

[JAYSLOL]

The Dow closed yesterday at 27,691.50.  It closed at 27691.49 today.

Flat Top Is In.

So it’s down 0.01 of a point? Top definitely In.

[wienerdog]

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4306157-trio-sentiment-indicators-suggests-short-term-top-ahead-s-and-p-500

Short term Top ahead!  Does that mean long term top is in or not?

[mies]

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4306157-trio-sentiment-indicators-suggests-short-term-top-ahead-s-and-p-500

Short term Top ahead!  Does that mean long term top is in or not?

Hmm. I don’t know. What do CNBC and Market Watch have to say?

[Davnasty]

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4306157-trio-sentiment-indicators-suggests-short-term-top-ahead-s-and-p-500

Short term Top ahead!  Does that mean long term top is in or not?

Hmm. I don’t know. What do CNBC and Market Watch have to say?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-futures-edge-lower-ahead-of-powell-remarks-2019-11-13

"Stocks slightly lower as rally pauses on concerns about trade and interest rates"
Published: Nov 13, 2019 10:39 a.m. ET

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/13/dow-to-fall-powell-on-capitol-hill-and-public-impeachment-hearings.html

"What to watch today: Dow to fall, Powell on Capitol Hill"
Published Wed, Nov 13 2019•6:48 AM EST


Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Index: DJI · November 13, 11:15 AM EST

27,697.02 ▲ 5.53 (0.020%)

¯\_ (ツ)_/¯

[PathtoFIRE]

I'm going to need to see some lines and scribbles on a chart before I know what to think. And also I'm going to need to hear from some billionaires and fund managers, who always seem to have an inordinate amount of time to chat with the sober and serious business reporters from the cable news networks.

[DadJokes]

I'm going to need to see some lines and scribbles on a chart before I know what to think. And also I'm going to need to hear from some billionaires and fund managers, who always seem to have an inordinate amount of time to chat with the sober and serious business reporters from the cable news networks.

Well, if I can convince 1 billion people to each give me $1, I'll be happy to share my opinion on the market.

I would also settle for $10 each from 100 million people.

[2sk22]

Ok so this actually affects me a little. In our household, we have quite a lot of company stock received as grants). Periodically, I sell batches of stock and use the proceeds to buy to index funds. I now have several tens of thousands of dollars waiting for deployment - do I wait? :-)

[frugledoc]

Ok so this actually affects me a little. In our household, we have quite a lot of company stock received as grants). Periodically, I sell batches of stock and use the proceeds to buy to index funds. I now have several tens of thousands of dollars waiting for deployment - do I wait? :-)

No

[2sk22]

Ok so this actually affects me a little. In our household, we have quite a lot of company stock received as grants). Periodically, I sell batches of stock and use the proceeds to buy to index funds. I now have several tens of thousands of dollars waiting for deployment - do I wait? :-)

No

You convinced me, you smooth talker. Just submitted the buy order :-)