Top is in

[Scandium]

BROKE THE MAGIC 5 TODAY!

Thorstache ULTRA NEWS: 5,000.40 daily high...

(trying to find that millisecond on the chart, it isn't showing for me.)

It didn't stick and closed @ 4,997.91  TOP IS IN!

Maybe the top is just screwing with us...

It's always been a screw-top.

I'm wearing a crop-top to work today, to celebrate new 5k top almost being in

[GuitarStv]

BROKE THE MAGIC 5 TODAY!

Thorstache ULTRA NEWS: 5,000.40 daily high...

(trying to find that millisecond on the chart, it isn't showing for me.)

It didn't stick and closed @ 4,997.91  TOP IS IN!

Maybe the top is just screwing with us...

It's always been a screw-top.

A Screwtape approved screw-top?

[EscapeVelocity2020]

I’m a little disappointed Thorstach hasn’t swung by, if ever there was a time to call a top, now’s as good a time as any…  I’m beginning to think he’s either given up or maybe he doesn’t know what he’s talking about!  Calling the Top is in

[ChpBstrd]

I’m a little disappointed Thorstach hasn’t swung by, if ever there was a time to call a top, now’s as good a time as any…  I’m beginning to think he’s either given up or maybe he doesn’t know what he’s talking about!  Calling the Top is in

I don't know what we're talking about either. Somebody just said "a Screwtape approved screw-top".

[GuitarStv]

No CS Lewis fans?

[techwiz]

No CS Lewis fans?

[Alternatepriorities]

No CS Lewis fans?

It seems like a demon would prefer a top that requires tools... Or better yet something single use.

[Exflyboy]

I’m a little disappointed Thorstach hasn’t swung by, if ever there was a time to call a top, now’s as good a time as any…  I’m beginning to think he’s either given up or maybe he doesn’t know what he’s talking about!  Calling the Top is in

Heresy!

The top can't be in now because yesterday I withdrew $250k* from old 401k's to roll inro my Vanguard IRA.. "We will send you a check in about a week" they said..

So naturally the S&P will skyrocket now..:)

*Well it was $200k in bond funds and ONLY $50k in stocks so hopefully my gains/losses will even out.

[PathtoFIRE]

So naturally the S&P will skyrocket now..:)

And we thank you for it, good honest work you're doing for all of us. We'll let you know when we need you to make another large withdrawal.

[Mr. Green]

S&P 5100 here we come!

[WayDownSouth]

S&P 5100 here we come!

That's not even possible since the top is in.

[aboatguy]

BROKE THE MAGIC 5 TODAY!

Thorstache ULTRA NEWS: 5,000.40 daily high...

(trying to find that millisecond on the chart, it isn't showing for me.)

It didn't stick and closed @ 4,997.91  TOP IS IN!

Maybe the top is just screwing with us...

It's always been a screw-top.

A Screwtape approved screw-top?

Screwtop and Mentos,  Top is in!

[aboatguy]

Extreme Greed is driving the market




Looks plenty high.  Top is in!

[WayDownSouth]

Extreme Greed is driving the market

Hasn't it always been?

[moof]

S&P 500 lower today, guess we are past the Top.  All down from here fellas.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

S&P 500 lower today, guess we are past the Top.  All down from here fellas.

Bah, way too lazy.  More like - Giant Intraday Reversal!  Mag 7 momentum cracking!!  50 second line crossed the 200 minute line, Top Is IN!!!

[FireLane]

My taxable Vanguard account finally surpassed its last all-time high, set in December 2021.

Obviously, this means the top is in.

[ATtiny85]

My taxable Vanguard account finally surpassed its last all-time high, set in December 2021.

Obviously, this means the top is in.

Good thing you got this post in when you did.

[ChpBstrd]

My taxable Vanguard account finally surpassed its last all-time high, set in December 2021.

Obviously, this means the top is in.

Good thing you got this post in when you did.

I'm thinking Thorsatchianism has its first saint.

[aboatguy]

[Scandium]

S&P 500 lower today, guess we are past the Top.  All down from here fellas.

S&P500 down 1.07% today! There are 228 trading days left, so by logic(tm) we're on track for further -243.96% this year!! Top was in, extreme bottom incoming!

[dandarc]

S&P 500 lower today, guess we are past the Top.  All down from here fellas.

S&P500 down 1.07% today! There are 228 trading days left, so by logic(tm) we're on track for further -243.96% this year!! Top was in, extreme bottom incoming!

Compounding though - seems like were heading towards a further -4,668% to me.

[Wintergreen78]

S&P 500 lower today, guess we are past the Top.  All down from here fellas.

S&P500 down 1.07% today! There are 228 trading days left, so by logic(tm) we're on track for further -243.96% this year!! Top was in, extreme bottom incoming!

Compounding though - seems like were heading towards a further -4,668% to me.

Everyone gets compounding wrong! A 1.07% daily loss, compounded over 228 trading days means a 91.39 percent loss by the end of the year. So, the SP 509 will be back under 500 by 2025.

But we already knew that, since the top is in.

[Glenstache]

S&P 500 lower today, guess we are past the Top.  All down from here fellas.

S&P500 down 1.07% today! There are 228 trading days left, so by logic(tm) we're on track for further -243.96% this year!! Top was in, extreme bottom incoming!

Compounding though - seems like were heading towards a further -4,668% to me.

Everyone gets compounding wrong! A 1.07% daily loss, compounded over 228 trading days means a 91.39 percent loss by the end of the year. So, the SP 509 will be back under 500 by 2025.

But we already knew that, since the top is in.

I thought it would have to be a 3rd order or higher polynomial to allow for a GOAT MOAT... or am I just missing something?

[Wintergreen78]

S&P 500 lower today, guess we are past the Top.  All down from here fellas.

S&P500 down 1.07% today! There are 228 trading days left, so by logic(tm) we're on track for further -243.96% this year!! Top was in, extreme bottom incoming!

Compounding though - seems like were heading towards a further -4,668% to me.

Everyone gets compounding wrong! A 1.07% daily loss, compounded over 228 trading days means a 91.39 percent loss by the end of the year. So, the SP 509 will be back under 500 by 2025.

But we already knew that, since the top is in.

I thought it would have to be a 3rd order or higher polynomial to allow for a GOAT MOAT... or am I just missing something?

Polynomials, exponential functions, the top doesn’t care about math!

[FireLane]

My taxable Vanguard account finally surpassed its last all-time high, set in December 2021.

Obviously, this means the top is in.

Good thing you got this post in when you did.

I'm thinking Thorsatchianism has its first saint.

I don't want to brag, but I just have a natural gift.

[aboatguy]

Extreme Greed is driving the market

Hasn't it always been?

No,  Sometimes is just Greed, other times its, Fear or Extreme Fear.  Due to the teachings of Thorstache, I no longer experience market sentiment (Extreme Fear, Fear, Greed or Extreme Greed) I remain neutral in the knowledge the the Top Is In!

This morning , Greed is driving the market, premarkets are up.  The Top is in, dead cat bounce arriving!

[ATtiny85]

S&P 500 lower today, guess we are past the Top.  All down from here fellas.

S&P500 down 1.07% today! There are 228 trading days left, so by logic(tm) we're on track for further -243.96% this year!! Top was in, extreme bottom incoming!

Compounding though - seems like were heading towards a further -4,668% to me.

Everyone gets compounding wrong! A 1.07% daily loss, compounded over 228 trading days means a 91.39 percent loss by the end of the year. So, the SP 509 will be back under 500 by 2025.

But we already knew that, since the top is in.

Um, does your little super special compounding calculator have the “t-stach” button pushed in? When the top is in, that button is critical for all calculations. It is rooted in some early abacus work.

[jeroly]

S&P 500 lower today, guess we are past the Top.  All down from here fellas.

S&P500 down 1.07% today! There are 228 trading days left, so by logic(tm) we're on track for further -243.96% this year!! Top was in, extreme bottom incoming!

Compounding though - seems like were heading towards a further -4,668% to me.

Everyone gets compounding wrong! A 1.07% daily loss, compounded over 228 trading days means a 91.39 percent loss by the end of the year. So, the SP 509 will be back under 500 by 2025.

But we already knew that, since the top is in.

Um, does your little super special compounding calculator have the “t-stach” button pushed in? When the top is in, that button is critical for all calculations. It is rooted in some early abacus work.

What's with this 'when' silliness? The top is now, has always been. and forever will be, in.

[Wintergreen78]

S&P 500 lower today, guess we are past the Top.  All down from here fellas.

S&P500 down 1.07% today! There are 228 trading days left, so by logic(tm) we're on track for further -243.96% this year!! Top was in, extreme bottom incoming!

Compounding though - seems like were heading towards a further -4,668% to me.

Everyone gets compounding wrong! A 1.07% daily loss, compounded over 228 trading days means a 91.39 percent loss by the end of the year. So, the SP 509 will be back under 500 by 2025.

But we already knew that, since the top is in.

Um, does your little super special compounding calculator have the “t-stach” button pushed in? When the top is in, that button is critical for all calculations. It is rooted in some early abacus work.

What's with this 'when' silliness? The top is now, has always been. and forever will be, in.

Shoot! I had to find the special functions on my calculator to find the Thorstach button! I’ve been doing it wrong this entire time. VIX is through the roof.

[tpac]

It's never felt like the top is in to me before, but... it finally feels like the top is in?

The drag from productivity loss due to increasing levels of frequent illness and / or long-term illness and increasing numbers of people leaving the workforce due to long-term illness / permanent disability or to fill unpaid caregiver roles to care for others who have left for those reasons just seems overwhelming. Like it would be hard to overcome this drag even if there were effective policies being rolled out to try to address it? Not to mention compounding effects on workforce quality from increasingly sick kids being taught by increasingly sick teachers or on workforce size from declining fertility rates.

And all the primary drivers of poor health are trending in the wrong direction - heart disease rates, obesity rates, diabetes rates, cancer rates, covid rates, healthcare costs, healthcare quality, healthcare access, traffic injury / fatality rates, overdose rates etc..

It just feels like the US market is completely failing to price in either the existing escalating impacts from the accelerated decline in population health or the ability of those impacts to impair resiliency to other unrelated market shocks?

[solon]

It's never felt like the top is in to me before, but... it finally feels like the top is in?

The drag from productivity loss due to increasing levels of frequent illness and / or long-term illness and increasing numbers of people leaving the workforce due to long-term illness / permanent disability or to fill unpaid caregiver roles to care for others who have left for those reasons just seems overwhelming. Like it would be hard to overcome this drag even if there were effective policies being rolled out to try to address it? Not to mention compounding effects on workforce quality from increasingly sick kids being taught by increasingly sick teachers or on workforce size from declining fertility rates.

And all the primary drivers of poor health are trending in the wrong direction - heart disease rates, obesity rates, diabetes rates, cancer rates, covid rates, healthcare costs, healthcare quality, healthcare access, traffic injury / fatality rates, overdose rates etc..

It just feels like the US market is completely failing to price in either the existing escalating impacts from the accelerated decline in population health or the ability of those impacts to impair resiliency to other unrelated market shocks?

Shoot. Better go to cash then.

[Tyson]

It's never felt like the top is in to me before, but... it finally feels like the top is in?

The drag from productivity loss due to increasing levels of frequent illness and / or long-term illness and increasing numbers of people leaving the workforce due to long-term illness / permanent disability or to fill unpaid caregiver roles to care for others who have left for those reasons just seems overwhelming. Like it would be hard to overcome this drag even if there were effective policies being rolled out to try to address it? Not to mention compounding effects on workforce quality from increasingly sick kids being taught by increasingly sick teachers or on workforce size from declining fertility rates.

And all the primary drivers of poor health are trending in the wrong direction - heart disease rates, obesity rates, diabetes rates, cancer rates, covid rates, healthcare costs, healthcare quality, healthcare access, traffic injury / fatality rates, overdose rates etc..

It just feels like the US market is completely failing to price in either the existing escalating impacts from the accelerated decline in population health or the ability of those impacts to impair resiliency to other unrelated market shocks?

Shoot. Better go to cash then.

I think what he meant to say was:  Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

[maizefolk]

At the risk of being flamed for being serious for a moment:

Net immigration into the USA is up and a lot of both current and future economic growth appears to be driven by the fact we're still, at least to some extent, able to convince healthy, young, smart, motivated people to leave the countries where they were born around the globe to move here and work hard. Even with our cratering birth rates and higher rates of disability (long covid related and otherwise), we have more than 4M more people in the labor force today than we did before the pandemic.

[ChpBstrd]

At the risk of being flamed for being serious for a moment:

Net immigration into the USA is up and a lot of both current and future economic growth appears to be driven by the fact we're still, at least to some extent, able to convince healthy, young, smart, motivated people to leave the countries where they were born around the globe to move here and work hard. Even with our cratering birth rates and higher rates of disability (long covid related and otherwise), we have more than 4M more people in the labor force today than we did before the pandemic.

And “fear is back” about something that will cause economic growth.

[tpac]

At the risk of being flamed for being serious for a moment:

Net immigration into the USA is up and a lot of both current and future economic growth appears to be driven by the fact we're still, at least to some extent, able to convince healthy, young, smart, motivated people to leave the countries where they were born around the globe to move here and work hard. Even with our cratering birth rates and higher rates of disability (long covid related and otherwise), we have more than 4M more people in the labor force today than we did before the pandemic.

Having 4M more people added to the labor force from 2019 to 2024 sounds good, but that's not enough to keep pace with 13M in population growth during the same time period (329 vs 342).

Higher wages in the US definitely continue to lure highly skilled healthy young people to move here. Net inward migration has been falling since 1998 though settling around 1/2 of that of a number of other developed countries with high percentages of english speakers and similar population pyramids like Canada, Australia and Norway, which all have higher population growth rate projections for the foreseeable future (through 2100).

My primary concern is that it just doesn't feel like anyone in the US has made an informed attempt to price emerging threats to US population stability into the overall US demographic picture - declining fertility, increasing disability, increasing time devoted to unpaid caregiver roles to support those dealing with disability, increasing costs related to raising kids etc..

If I had to guess I'd say either CBO will revise US population growth projections down in the next year or two and that will be enough of a market shock to reveal other weakness or there will be another market shock that sends people looking for weakness such that they discover extensive reliance on unrealistic population growth projections.

None of this will affect my personal investment strategy at all. Just getting strong early 2008 vibes - like literally any kind of market shock that sends people looking for (and finding) risk will result in the market taking 4-5 years to recover back to the current top.

[secondcor521]

But the VIX is ... <checking> ... under 15.  I'm confused.  Maybe it's XIV breaking down.

[JAYSLOL]

But the VIX is ... <checking> ... under 15.  I'm confused.  Maybe it's XIV breaking down.

I haven’t checked, but pretty sure it’s been breaking down for 7 years now.  Not going to look, looking would be a reality check. 

[OurTown]

Where the hell is everybody?  Don't you know the top is in?

[WayDownSouth]

Where the hell is everybody?  Don't you know the top is in?

Everyone knows and yes it's official. Top is in, it's all downhill from here. That's why this thread's been dead for a week. You can feel it.

It's an amazing thing to be able to say "I was alive and witnessed first-hand as the top finally came in", no?

[Much Fishing to Do]

It's an amazing thing to be able to say "I was alive and witnessed first-hand as the top finally came in", no?

Not really.  It has happened to me many times over the last 30 years.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Where the hell is everybody?  Don't you know the top is in?

Even Thorstach has given up, truly the toppiest top signal yet...  on to the next top!

[dividendman]

Nikkei top is in after 35 years.

[Psychstache]

It's never felt like the top is in to me before, but... it finally feels like the top is in?

The drag from productivity loss due to increasing levels of frequent illness and / or long-term illness and increasing numbers of people leaving the workforce due to long-term illness / permanent disability or to fill unpaid caregiver roles to care for others who have left for those reasons just seems overwhelming. Like it would be hard to overcome this drag even if there were effective policies being rolled out to try to address it? Not to mention compounding effects on workforce quality from increasingly sick kids being taught by increasingly sick teachers or on workforce size from declining fertility rates.

And all the primary drivers of poor health are trending in the wrong direction - heart disease rates, obesity rates, diabetes rates, cancer rates, covid rates, healthcare costs, healthcare quality, healthcare access, traffic injury / fatality rates, overdose rates etc..

It just feels like the US market is completely failing to price in either the existing escalating impacts from the accelerated decline in population health or the ability of those impacts to impair resiliency to other unrelated market shocks?

Shoot. Better go to cash then.

I think what he meant to say was:  Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

Exactly. Whenever you feel the urge to engage in some kind of reasoned prognostication, instead comfort yourself with the words from our sacred text.

[WayDownSouth]

It's an amazing thing to be able to say "I was alive and witnessed first-hand as the top finally came in", no?

Not really.  It has happened to me many times over the last 30 years.

Shouldn't you be fishing?

[blue_green_sparks]

Yeah, we have an all-time high...but being an adult is stupid.

[Mr. Green]

Economists has successfully predicted the last 26 of 15 times that Top Is In. 😂

[Tyson]

Economists has successfully predicted the last 26 of 15 times that Top Is In. 😂

What radical optimists those guys are.  I read the financial news and they predicted the top 365 times last year alone!

[aboatguy]

Nikkei at all time high
SP500 is 5102.00

It has to be a TRAP.


Thorstach, is it  too late to sell everything, hit the liquor stores and supermarkets to hoard 18 year old spring water, TP, and Ramen?

[ATtiny85]

Nikkei at all time high
SP500 is 5102.00

It has to be a TRAP.


Thorstach, is it  too late to sell everything, hit the liquor stores and supermarkets to hoard 18 year old spring water, TP, and Ramen?

TRAP =
Thorstach is Really Always Perfect?
Thorstach Ruins All Portfolios?
Thorstach Rightly Advises People?