Top is in

[ChpBstrd]

I don't think too many Mustachians have been through the 2008 or 2000's bubble burstings, so this 'top is in' thread could get interesting.  Not that it matters because the Top is IN

I had just started investing and by mid 2007 had put everything that I owned into the market.  2008 was an exciting year.

Most folks in this forum have real skin in the game this time around.  Another GFC would be quite a ride

I know I'm annoying because I keep harping on the benefit of options collars to control risk, but it is possible to experience another GFC while invested in stocks and not experience the "ride".

Even today it is possible to enter a costless collar with the following trades, that will limit your possible downside to 10% while allowing 16% upside over the next 500 days (December 19, 2025).

Buy 100 QQQ for $439/share
Sell 1 call at 510 (16.2% above today's price) for about $25
Buy 1 put at 394.78 strike (10% below today's price) for about $25

If you don't like these specific numbers or dates, different selections are possible, but the point remains the same. There's no reason to fear, even if the top is in.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

I don't think too many Mustachians have been through the 2008 or 2000's bubble burstings, so this 'top is in' thread could get interesting.  Not that it matters because the Top is IN

I had just started investing and by mid 2007 had put everything that I owned into the market.  2008 was an exciting year.

Most folks in this forum have real skin in the game this time around.  Another GFC would be quite a ride

I know I'm annoying because I keep harping on the benefit of options collars to control risk, but it is possible to experience another GFC while invested in stocks and not experience the "ride".

Even today it is possible to enter a costless collar with the following trades, that will limit your possible downside to 10% while allowing 16% upside over the next 500 days (December 19, 2025).

Buy 100 QQQ for $439/share
Sell 1 call at 510 (16.2% above today's price) for about $25
Buy 1 put at 394.78 strike (10% below today's price) for about $25

If you don't like these specific numbers or dates, different selections are possible, but the point remains the same. There's no reason to fear, even if the top is in.

Or you can just keep dollar cost averaging in, not sell anything, and feel like a fool because the Ultimate Top Was In.

[Glenstache]

Who the hell was still doing a yen carry trade when Japanese rates are rising and US rates are about to fall?

How was the obvious not priced in? Forex idiots don't know the top is in.

Right? What a bunch of rubes not being perfectly informed rational actors.

[Alternatepriorities]

Who the hell was still doing a yen carry trade when Japanese rates are rising and US rates are about to fall?

How was the obvious not priced in? Forex idiots don't know the top is in.

Right? What a bunch of rubes not being perfectly informed rational actors.

Would one of you be willing to quickly summarize what happened here? I've been swamped the last couple weeks and just seen headlines that basically said the top is in...

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Who the hell was still doing a yen carry trade when Japanese rates are rising and US rates are about to fall?

How was the obvious not priced in? Forex idiots don't know the top is in.

Right? What a bunch of rubes not being perfectly informed rational actors.

Would one of you be willing to quickly summarize what happened here? I've been swamped the last couple weeks and just seen headlines that basically said the top is in...

I'd summarize for you but I have a 20 word essay due in 2 hours and I'm watching a Twitch stream (insert 'not like this' emoji)...

[Glenstache]

Who the hell was still doing a yen carry trade when Japanese rates are rising and US rates are about to fall?

How was the obvious not priced in? Forex idiots don't know the top is in.

Right? What a bunch of rubes not being perfectly informed rational actors.

Would one of you be willing to quickly summarize what happened here? I've been swamped the last couple weeks and just seen headlines that basically said the top is in...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-stock-market-meltdown-due-to-the-unwind-of-this-popular-hedge-fund-trade-2f6ab020

In which case this is the Hedge Top Trim Haircut

[Much Fishing to Do]

I'm so confused.  I had finally just accepted that bad news is good news and now it appears bad news is bad news again.

[Alternatepriorities]

Who the hell was still doing a yen carry trade when Japanese rates are rising and US rates are about to fall?

How was the obvious not priced in? Forex idiots don't know the top is in.

Right? What a bunch of rubes not being perfectly informed rational actors.

Would one of you be willing to quickly summarize what happened here? I've been swamped the last couple weeks and just seen headlines that basically said the top is in...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-stock-market-meltdown-due-to-the-unwind-of-this-popular-hedge-fund-trade-2f6ab020

In which case this is the Hedge Top Trim Haircut

Thanks!

I'm so confused.  I had finally just accepted that bad news is good news and now it appears bad news is bad news again.

It looks like you can go back to the new normal again.

[dividendman]

Is the market even down at all? Is the top not in?? Can it be!?!?!?!?!

[SwordGuy]

We have four different possible income streams.   Our stocks and bonds are one of the four and it's usually superfluous.    I like drama-free income.

[Malossi792]

We have four different possible income streams.   Our stocks and bonds are one of the four and it's usually superfluous.    I like drama-free income.

Define drama-free

[SwordGuy]

We have four different possible income streams.   Our stocks and bonds are one of the four and it's usually superfluous.    I like drama-free income.

Define drama-free

The market drops 50% and I won't sweat it because we don't depend upon that income for our usual expenses.

Or if, instead, our farm income drops to $0 for a year or two.

Or if, instead, the 82nd Airborne Division gets deployed en masse to Goddamitstan and the rental housing market in our city collapses, with all our rental homes going vacant and staying that way for a year or two.

Or if, instead, the Republicans cut social security payments by 25% because stiffing working people is how they do things.   (Don't kid yourself there aren't folks in the GOP that don't want to gut or destroy social security so regular folks will have to work till they drop.)

Any one of those happens and we don't have to really pay attention.   

If two happen at the same time, we tighten our belts and use up our current stockpile of art supplies instead of buying more, but we don't sweat it.

If three happen at the same time, we pay serious attention and have some drama.

[Glenstache]

@SwordGuy I suspect you are paying attention to trade wars, potention conflict escalation and Project 2025 pretty closely then. 2024 Top is in!

[SwordGuy]

@SwordGuy I suspect you are paying attention to trade wars, potention conflict escalation and Project 2025 pretty closely then. 2024 Top is in!

Voting in sensible people instead of the orange traitorous turd and his ilk will mean that our trade issues have a chance of being dealt with in an intelligent manner.   

I share info about Project 2025 with all and sundry because I don't want to live under that kind of regime and I don't want anyone else to have too either.

One both of those I do what I can to show the MAGA positions are awful for America.   

Potential conflict escalation is a possibility.  I think we're much less likely to have that with a steady hand on the helm with predictable and believable responses.   If we're going to have it, I prefer we have it BEFORE Russia swallows Ukraine and BEFORE China swallows up Taiwan, not after.   Appeasement leads to bigger and more disastrous wars.  History is very clear on that.

There's plenty of political drama in the US, but I don't have financial drama.   

[Malossi792]

We have four different possible income streams.   Our stocks and bonds are one of the four and it's usually superfluous.    I like drama-free income.

Define drama-free

The market drops 50% and I won't sweat it because we don't depend upon that income for our usual expenses.

Or if, instead, our farm income drops to $0 for a year or two.

Or if, instead, the 82nd Airborne Division gets deployed en masse to Goddamitstan and the rental housing market in our city collapses, with all our rental homes going vacant and staying that way for a year or two.

Or if, instead, the Republicans cut social security payments by 25% because stiffing working people is how they do things.   (Don't kid yourself there aren't folks in the GOP that don't want to gut or destroy social security so regular folks will have to work till they drop.)

Any one of those happens and we don't have to really pay attention.   

If two happen at the same time, we tighten our belts and use up our current stockpile of art supplies instead of buying more, but we don't sweat it.

If three happen at the same time, we pay serious attention and have some drama.

What a thorough answer, thanks!

[G-dog]

We have four different possible income streams.   Our stocks and bonds are one of the four and it's usually superfluous.    I like drama-free income.

Define drama-free

The market drops 50% and I won't sweat it because we don't depend upon that income for our usual expenses.

Or if, instead, our farm income drops to $0 for a year or two.

Or if, instead, the 82nd Airborne Division gets deployed en masse to Goddamitstan and the rental housing market in our city collapses, with all our rental homes going vacant and staying that way for a year or two.

Or if, instead, the Republicans cut social security payments by 25% because stiffing working people is how they do things.   (Don't kid yourself there aren't folks in the GOP that don't want to gut or destroy social security so regular folks will have to work till they drop.)

Any one of those happens and we don't have to really pay attention.   

If two happen at the same time, we tighten our belts and use up our current stockpile of art supplies instead of buying more, but we don't sweat it.

If three happen at the same time, we pay serious attention and have some drama.

What a thorough answer, thanks!

Answer top is IN!

[Psychstache]

Market movement in relation to hard data, pshaw.

  Raw emotions control the market, FEAR and GREED. 

Fear is back soon it may be time to place more Ducats into the market hoping to catch another dead cat bounce.  Top is in!

So, I am finishing up another rewatch of Deep Space Nine and read this as Dukat in my head and got real confused.

[GuitarStv]

We've been rewatching DS9 for the first time since it was on air and I think that I may have misjudged the show.  It's better than I remember it being . . . at least into the fourth season.  It's an odd show in that all the best characters are all supporting cast (Quark, Garek, Nog, Ducat).  Bashir, Dax, and the Siskos are all pretty wooden characters.

[Psychstache]

We've been rewatching DS9 for the first time since it was on air and I think that I may have misjudged the show.  It's better than I remember it being . . . at least into the fourth season.  It's an odd show in that all the best characters are all supporting cast (Quark, Garek, Nog, Ducat).  Bashir, Dax, and the Siskos are all pretty wooden characters.

Glad to hear you rethinking your previous opinion on DS9. Yeah, like a lot of Trek it took a few seasons to find its legs, though there are some gems here and there (such as a great arc defining piece for Kira in Duet).

Agreed on the side characters stealing the show. Avery Brooks (Sisko) did best when he got to exude his big theater energy and soliloquize and chew scenery for us in episodes like Our Man Bashir, Far Beyond the Stars, and In the Pale Moonlight. I don't think they ever found a good lane to dig into Dax, and Bashir had some good stuff going in his interactions with Garak, but the showrunners weren't down with the homoerotic vibes and introduced a random character that didn't work out to intentionally scuttle their chemistry.

Also, you forget to highlight one of the best side character performances: Space Karen herself Kai Winn. Louise Fletcher creating such a realistically  hateable character in less than 15 episodes is a master class.

[Exflyboy]

Rather like @SwordGuy we are not having to spend any of our investments in a normal year, in fact the last after tax dividend payment I simply put back into money market funds to add to the significant buffer of cash, courtesy of my having gone back to work in 2022.

In other words it really doesn't matter what the day to day value of our investments are. So I'm not looking at the market.

[elysianfields]

Rather like @SwordGuy we are not having to spend any of our investments in a normal year, in fact the last after tax dividend payment I simply put back into money market funds to add to the significant buffer of cash, courtesy of my having gone back to work in 2022.

In other words it really doesn't matter what the day to day value of our investments are. So I'm not looking at the market.

Oh but you should pay attention to the market @Exflyboy because… Top is IN!!!

[JAYSLOL]

Rather like @SwordGuy we are not having to spend any of our investments in a normal year, in fact the last after tax dividend payment I simply put back into money market funds to add to the significant buffer of cash, courtesy of my having gone back to work in 2022.

In other words it really doesn't matter what the day to day value of our investments are. So I'm not looking at the market.

If you do check the market charts, just remember to account for any aerial inversion that may distort the trend direction

[Glenstache]

Rather like @SwordGuy we are not having to spend any of our investments in a normal year, in fact the last after tax dividend payment I simply put back into money market funds to add to the significant buffer of cash, courtesy of my having gone back to work in 2022.

In other words it really doesn't matter what the day to day value of our investments are. So I'm not looking at the market.

If you do check the market charts, just remember to account for any aerial inversion that may distort the trend direction

If you're hoping for a soft landing, make sure you know if it's a taildragger. Otherwise prop top is in.

[Wintergreen78]

Rather like @SwordGuy we are not having to spend any of our investments in a normal year, in fact the last after tax dividend payment I simply put back into money market funds to add to the significant buffer of cash, courtesy of my having gone back to work in 2022.

In other words it really doesn't matter what the day to day value of our investments are. So I'm not looking at the market.

If you do check the market charts, just remember to account for any aerial inversion that may distort the trend direction

If you're hoping for a soft landing, make sure you know if it's a taildragger. Otherwise prop top is in.

I’m pretty sure the top can’t pull 4 gs in an inverted dive. It’s got something to do with fuel tanks or something.

[Glenstache]

Rather like @SwordGuy we are not having to spend any of our investments in a normal year, in fact the last after tax dividend payment I simply put back into money market funds to add to the significant buffer of cash, courtesy of my having gone back to work in 2022.

In other words it really doesn't matter what the day to day value of our investments are. So I'm not looking at the market.

If you do check the market charts, just remember to account for any aerial inversion that may distort the trend direction

If you're hoping for a soft landing, make sure you know if it's a taildragger. Otherwise prop top is in.

I’m pretty sure the top can’t pull 4 gs in an inverted dive. It’s got something to do with fuel tanks or something.
[/quote
Your information is wrong. I've seen the top pull 4gs inverted while engaged in international relations.

[techwiz]

Your information is wrong. I've seen the top pull 4gs inverted while engaged in international relations.

Top is in!

[MustacheAndaHalf]

Tom Lee typically has the most bullish outlook of any analyst, but...

"Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors explains why investors should remain cautious from September until election day."
https://x.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1830961940035772793

Bullish top is in.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

The market is dropping with expectations that the Fed will cut rates soon?  Top Is In!

[dividendman]

If we extrapolate today's losses over the next 50 days the market will be at zero. 50 days until broke top is in.

[GuitarStv]

Tom Lee typically has the most bullish outlook of any analyst, but...

"Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors explains why investors should remain cautious from September until election day."
https://x.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1830961940035772793

Bullish top is in.

I think autocorrect changed 'bullshit' on you there . . .

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Tom Lee typically has the most bullshit outlook of any analyst, but...

"Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors explains why investors should remain cautious from September until election day."
https://x.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1830961940035772793

Bullish top is in.

I think autocorrect changed 'bullshit' on you there . . .

That was hillarious, but you missed the most important autocorrect

[fuzzy math]

Top is in... for NVDA at least :-/

[ChpBstrd]

Top is in... for NVDA at least :-/

Dayum! That stock has fallen so far we haven't seen these prices since August 9, 2024. New 26 day low is in.

[Malossi792]

Top is in... for NVDA at least :-/

Dayum! That stock has fallen so far we haven't seen these prices since August 9, 2024. New 26 day low is in.

But...but if this trend continues, the whole thing could be worthless within 10 trading days. I'm quite sure that could lead to contagion... Repent people! Top was in!

[GuitarStv]

Top is in... for NVDA at least :-/

Dayum! That stock has fallen so far we haven't seen these prices since August 9, 2024. New 26 day low is in.

But...but if this trend continues, the whole thing could be worthless within 10 trading days. I'm quite sure that could lead to contagion... Repent people! Top was in!

Cue up 'Muse - Thought Contagion' - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQoxTkucHWM

[Psychstache]

Tom Lee typically has the most bullish outlook of any analyst, but...

"Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors explains why investors should remain cautious from September until election day."
https://x.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1830961940035772793

Bullish top is in.

So now we are taking investment advice from the drummer of Motley Crue? Big Hair Top is in!

[techwiz]

Big Hair Top is in!

Future will be looking like this.



Top is in!

[J.P. MoreGains]

Glad I'm stepping away from checking my numbers frequently. I was at the year mark since I started tracking so I was checking fairly frequently the progress. Not good to be watching too closely... I definitely see the benefit of all of the sayings like "think long term" and "stay the course".

[aloevera1]

New 26 day low is in.

Ugly crying atm.

[aboatguy]

Big Hair Top is in!

Future will be looking like this.



Top is in!

Nothing but scalp  left for the   
 next market haircut.  That's going to hurt.

[tpac]

Starting to feel like next Top won't be in until 2025 (or 2026). Week long sell off continuing today.

VOO < $500 right now. Nvidia hovering just above $100.

[Heckler]

VOO < $500 right now.

Almost plummeted halfway down to the dreary lows of August 6! 

[tpac]

VOO < $500 right now.

Almost plummeted halfway down to the dreary lows of August 6!

Seriously, VOO is still only 4-5% off all time highs. Looking for a 10% dip (4-5% current drop + 5% further slide) to deploy some more cash.

[Malossi792]

I should've warned you people, yesterday I deployed a bigger than usual contribution. Seems like it's all downhill from here.

[JAYSLOL]

I should've warned you people, yesterday I deployed a bigger than usual contribution. Seems like it's all downhill from here.

Yes, that’s an absolute certainty. Top is in!

[fuzzy math]

Top is in... for NVDA at least :-/

Dayum! That stock has fallen so far we haven't seen these prices since August 9, 2024. New 26 day low is in.

But...but if this trend continues, the whole thing could be worthless within 10 trading days. I'm quite sure that could lead to contagion... Repent people! Top was in!

When do we have to start filtering our own urine for drinking water?

[GuitarStv]

Top is in... for NVDA at least :-/

Dayum! That stock has fallen so far we haven't seen these prices since August 9, 2024. New 26 day low is in.

But...but if this trend continues, the whole thing could be worthless within 10 trading days. I'm quite sure that could lead to contagion... Repent people! Top was in!

When do we have to start filtering our own urine for drinking water?

If you haven't already started, you're too late.

[tpac]

Top is in... for NVDA at least :-/

Dayum! That stock has fallen so far we haven't seen these prices since August 9, 2024. New 26 day low is in.

But...but if this trend continues, the whole thing could be worthless within 10 trading days. I'm quite sure that could lead to contagion... Repent people! Top was in!

When do we have to start filtering our own urine for drinking water?

Who can afford to filter their urine before drinking it? In this economy?

[Tigerpine]

Top is in... for NVDA at least :-/

Dayum! That stock has fallen so far we haven't seen these prices since August 9, 2024. New 26 day low is in.

But...but if this trend continues, the whole thing could be worthless within 10 trading days. I'm quite sure that could lead to contagion... Repent people! Top was in!

When do we have to start filtering our own urine for drinking water?

Who can afford to filter their urine before drinking it? In this economy?

Self-hydration top is in!

[Tyson]

Top is in... for NVDA at least :-/

Dayum! That stock has fallen so far we haven't seen these prices since August 9, 2024. New 26 day low is in.

But...but if this trend continues, the whole thing could be worthless within 10 trading days. I'm quite sure that could lead to contagion... Repent people! Top was in!

When do we have to start filtering our own urine for drinking water?

Who can afford to filter their urine before drinking it? In this economy?

Self-hydration top is in!

Who knew?  The Fremen had it right, all along: