How long can we wait while flattening the curve?

[Abe]

@Abe  - that scatter graph of covid19 deaths vs predicted pandemic preparedness looks completely random to me. Would you agree? If I’m reading the graph right, has there been any follow up suggesting why the predicted preparedness was such a poor measure? When I read about it, I noted that they were rather scathing about how prepared even the best prepared nation was, so that could be a partial explanation.

I think your assessment is correct. The group is analyzing the data to revise their assessments. I think in general this was difficult to deal with because of the high rate of asymptomatic transmission, unlike some other respiratory illnesses (or blood-borne illnesses) that they were focused on. I think what will be a more useful measure, once the dust settles, is the case fatality rate during the first wave in a given area, and subsequent waves. In general I think it will be much lower, which would be a sign of better preparedness (assuming a large fraction of high-risk people didn't die in the first wave). I know in the US states (which I've tracked closely) this was the case in every state that has had 2 or more waves.

I was inspired to actually graph these out. Here are two graphs showing case fatality rate (defined as deaths / number of cases) with a 2 week or 3 week lag between death and cases (to account for the time it takes, on average, to die of COVID after diagnosis). Of course these assume the test availability is not a limiting factor, but that was not true in a lot of states. I tried to account for this by looking only after June 1st, when most states had somewhat available testing. The overall trend is after an initial high death rate >3%, most states have settled in a 1-2% CFR.

[deborah]

When middo wrote that, there had been no community transmission in Australia for some time. Unfortunately, a person driving some international airline workers to their hotel from the airport caught it from them about the same time. Hopefully we’ll catch it at just five cases and be free of it again quickly.

Otherwise, states will close borders again just before Christmas.

As this is all about 800km from where middo lives, he’s probably still quite safe.

[marty998]

When middo wrote that, there had been no community transmission in Australia for some time. Unfortunately, a person driving some international airline workers to their hotel from the airport caught it from them about the same time. Hopefully we’ll catch it at just five cases and be free of it again quickly.

Otherwise, states will close borders again just before Christmas.

As this is all about 800km from where middo lives, he’s probably still quite safe.

OK I knew you had it down to zero but thought it was back and hard to tell who has been infected. I just though in a crowd of 30,000 there was a likely chance that someone may be a carrier.

Had to laugh at the news headlines today when it says our cases have just "EXPLODED" to 17.

The country loses its shit over 17, can't imagine what the headlines would be if we had 17,000 a day...

There is a small risk I'll be sent back home and our work office will be closed next week. Fingers crossed we'll be able to stay open.

[alsoknownasDean]

An Australian perspective;

My son is flying in tomorrow from interstate.  We are having Christmas as normal with my father and step-mother.  The extended family we are seeing Christmas eve of Boxing day.  Then on the 28th we are joining another 30,000 people going to the cricket (which is an annual event for us).  There is zero risk of any of us getting, or passing on covid-19.

How is there zero risk? Surely some people have tested positive there as @deborah pointed out. Here in the great state of Calif we had 54,000 cases today and our ICU in my area have zero capacity. I think many here though there was zero risk also even a month ago. Yay...'Murica.

Yes, but even in the summer the number of daily cases in the US didn't drop below 20,000.

Did any states have quarantine requirements on any arrivals from interstate? It's only been a week or two since people here in Victoria are allowed to travel quarantine-free to Western Australia.

Regarding the level of risk, I'd say 'very low risk' rather than zero. Always a risk of asymptomatic cases or from people who have travelled from interstate.

OK I knew you had it down to zero but thought it was back and hard to tell who has been infected. I just though in a crowd of 30,000 there was a likely chance that someone may be a carrier.

There's a new outbreak in Sydney, but here in Victoria the last locally-transmitted case was over six weeks ago, and there's 7 active cases in the state (all from hotel quarantine). The only state with active locally-transmitted cases is New South Wales, all others have either zero active cases or a small number of returned travellers in quarantine.

There's also the fact that the ground concerned has a capacity of 100,000 and is currently limited to 30,000 to assist social distancing.

I had my work Christmas party today, outdoors in a local park. I saw a lot of people I hadn't seen outside of Microsoft Teams since March. We'll start gradually returning to the office in the new year.

Had to laugh at the news headlines today when it says our cases have just "EXPLODED" to 17.

The country loses its shit over 17, can't imagine what the headlines would be if we had 17,000 a day...

There is a small risk I'll be sent back home and our work office will be closed next week. Fingers crossed we'll be able to stay open.

Hope you weren't planning on travelling to WA any time soon. They've already re-imposed quarantine orders on people arriving from NSW.

[marty998]

Had to laugh at the news headlines today when it says our cases have just "EXPLODED" to 17.

The country loses its shit over 17, can't imagine what the headlines would be if we had 17,000 a day...

There is a small risk I'll be sent back home and our work office will be closed next week. Fingers crossed we'll be able to stay open.

Hope you weren't planning on travelling to WA any time soon. They've already re-imposed quarantine orders on people arriving from NSW.

Nah I wasn't going over there. But I'm not surprised.... WA seems to be a bit more hardline than the other states.

This outbreak started with a driver who was taking international flight crews to a hotel....It does surprise me though that these flight crews are driven right into the middle of Sydney City to stay in a city hotel, rather than stay in a hotel next to the airport where the risk of transmission would be lowered.

That would be much less exposure for the security and the bus drivers who are driving them around. The health authorities need to seriously rethink this. Seems silly to move possibly infectious people to the most densely populated part of the city.

[alsoknownasDean]

Had to laugh at the news headlines today when it says our cases have just "EXPLODED" to 17.

The country loses its shit over 17, can't imagine what the headlines would be if we had 17,000 a day...

There is a small risk I'll be sent back home and our work office will be closed next week. Fingers crossed we'll be able to stay open.

Hope you weren't planning on travelling to WA any time soon. They've already re-imposed quarantine orders on people arriving from NSW.

Nah I wasn't going over there. But I'm not surprised.... WA seems to be a bit more hardline than the other states.

This outbreak started with a driver who was taking international flight crews to a hotel....It does surprise me though that these flight crews are driven right into the middle of Sydney City to stay in a city hotel, rather than stay in a hotel next to the airport where the risk of transmission would be lowered.

That would be much less exposure for the security and the bus drivers who are driving them around. The health authorities need to seriously rethink this. Seems silly to move possibly infectious people to the most densely populated part of the city.

Haha yeah, it's only been a week and a half since Victorians were able to travel to WA quarantine-free.

I didn't realise there was a link between the bus driver and the northern beaches cluster.

And yes I wonder what the reasoning is behind having hotel quarantine in the city centre. Especially if hotel quarantine workers are travelling via public transport to work.

[deborah]

Remember that we’re somewhat isolated from the rest of the world. Ships take time to reach us, and all the crew are tested. Generally speaking they’ve had a quarantine period while they’re getting here. As a result, there aren’t many problems. We’ve had crew test positive, and crew evacuated to hospital but I can’t recall any port transmission since the Ruby Princess (the cruise ship that caused most of our first wave cases).

[former player]

^^^And speaking of truck drivers how do you guys deal with off loading cargo from foriegn ships and transporting them within your nation? Here in our nations large port of LA/LB they've determined that something like 30% of all truck drivers (and longshoremen and other dock workers) are covid positive from dealing with foriegn cargo vessels. The crews of those vessels aren't allowed of the ships of course but some limited interaction is required even if just to inspect the vessels and document things.

ETA we did have some states that had mandated 2 weeks quarantine for people coming in from other states but I don't believe it was forced and was more a voluntary self-quarantine.

I would have thought truck drivers were far more likely to catch covid from truck stops - public toilets and washing facilities, cafe/restaurant dining, and so on.

There's a natural quarantine period for ships from most covid hotspots (ie Europe and North America) just in the time it takes to get to Australia.

[deborah]

Well, covid19 isn’t really transmitted by contact - almost all cases seem to come from aerosol transmission - so public toilets and washing facilities seem to be ok. We’ve had a number of transport drivers transmit it when they’ve bought food or dropped off stuff on their routes - for instance at supermarkets. The current cluster in Sydney appears to be caused by this, and other clusters have had similar sources.

[OtherJen]

My county's sheriff just died of COVID. I voted for him just last month. https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/wayne/2020/12/17/covid-19-wayne-county-sheriff-benny-napoleon-dies/6466323002/

[gaja]

I see some people are arguing that lockdowns cause deaths, but am having a hard time grasping the logic. I do see that some cultures, like Japan, have had a surge in suicide, but have not seen statistics that suggest this is a pattern in many other countries that causes enough spikes in the statistics to "outcompete" COVID. Norway has had a quite strict lockdown, and we have had statistically less deaths in 2020 than other years.

Unless there is something I haven't understood, I would think that with the large differences in reporting and testing, excess death would be a way to get more comparable data between countries.

[marty998]

I see some people are arguing that lockdowns cause deaths, but am having a hard time grasping the logic. I do see that some cultures, like Japan, have had a surge in suicide, but have not seen statistics that suggest this is a pattern in many other countries that causes enough spikes in the statistics to "outcompete" COVID. Norway has had a quite strict lockdown, and we have had statistically less deaths in 2020 than other years.

Unless there is something I haven't understood, I would think that with the large differences in reporting and testing, excess death would be a way to get more comparable data between countries.

There isn't any point trying to argue with that bloke.

[habanero]

I see some people are arguing that lockdowns cause deaths, but am having a hard time grasping the logic.

From what I've understood the fear is more of the long-term effects which will be hard to pinpoint and link cause and effect and it will also be someone else's problem down the road. The long-term effects from unemployment, small businesses going bankrupt and people loosing what they built up, people being less active, having less social contact, people not seeing their doctor when they otherwise would, drinking more and so on are probably not neglible. In countries with very low number of Covid deaths (like Norway) I don't think it's very far-fetched if someone claims that over time quality-adjusted life-years lost will be higher due to these effects than due to Covid, especially given the age distribution of Covid deaths. There is, to my understanding, an increasing worry about this in parts of the Norwegian health care system but noone is really listening as the only metric that count these days is how many die due to Covid. The rest doesn't really matter now. There is a significant drop in cancer and heart problems detected, but noone thinks that's due to cancer or heart problems going away, it's just that people to a lesser extent seek medical advice so stuff will be detected later which is never good. There was real worry about this in march/april when lots of people did not show up to appointments because they either was afraid to get infected or felt they didn't want to bother the healt care system which had more pressing causes (Covid) to handle.

That Norway has less deaths (albeit quite few less) than usual is as to be expected - there are very few from Covid and also less of pretty much every infectious disease which is a very common cause of death among the elderly. Last flu season came to a sudden stop due to Covid measures and this winter there probably won't even be a flu season for the same reason. There is also less general activity which means less accidents etc. Suicides are a tiny part of the picture, that's quite far down the list of death causes in a normal year so even a slight increase won't really show up.

[GuitarStv]

I see some people are arguing that lockdowns cause deaths, but am having a hard time grasping the logic.

From what I've understood the fear is more of the long-term effects which will be hard to pinpoint and link cause and effect and it will also be someone else's problem down the road. The long-term effects from unemployment, small businesses going bankrupt and people loosing what they built up, people being less active, having less social contact, people not seeing their doctor when they otherwise would, drinking more and so on are probably not neglible. In countries with very low number of Covid deaths (like Norway) I don't think it's very far-fetched if someone claims that over time quality-adjusted life-years lost will be higher due to these effects than due to Covid, especially given the age distribution of Covid deaths. There is, to my understanding, an increasing worry about this in parts of the Norwegian health care system but noone is really listening as the only metric that count these days is how many die due to Covid. The rest doesn't really matter now. There is a significant drop in cancer and heart problems detected, but noone thinks that's due to cancer or heart problems going away, it's just that people to a lesser extent seek medical advice so stuff will be detected later which is never good. There was real worry about this in march/april when lots of people did not show up to appointments because they either was afraid to get infected or felt they didn't want to bother the healt care system which had more pressing causes (Covid) to handle.

That Norway has less deaths (albeit quite few less) than usual is as to be expected - there are very few from Covid and also less of pretty much every infectious disease which is a very common cause of death among the elderly. Last flu season came to a sudden stop due to Covid measures and this winter there probably won't even be a flu season for the same reason. There is also less general activity which means less accidents etc. Suicides are a tiny part of the picture, that's quite far down the list of death causes in a normal year so even a slight increase won't really show up.

Shouldn't there also be a corresponding reduction in the suicides caused by being around other people?

All this suicide talk seems to be heavily based upon the assumption that folks are happier when they're forced to interact with other assholes on a regular basis.

[Abe]

Could you send the link for the data on the drop in cancer and heart disease diagnoses in Norway- the US can’t get its act together to register that information within 2 years (at least for cancer, maybe they do it in a more timely fashion with heart disease) much less within a year! That’s impressive that Norway does that. We won’t know the true fallout from chronic disease in the US for some time.

Also regarding suicides - I think this was originally conflating the so-called “deaths of despair” which were secondary to systemic economic injustice in the US especially that led to a slight uptick in suicide and drug-related deaths in the younger adult age groups about 7-10 years after the 2008-onset financial crisis (and flattening rather than expected decrease in all-cause mortality). There’s no data I could find showing an uptick in suicide immediately during the crisis, suggesting that those future deaths could be avoided with adequate economic measures to minimize the fallout from this economic crisis.

There’s data suggesting that overdose deaths did increase about 50% in the US overall during the covid-19 pandemic, yet a study in JAMA reported recently that known covid-19 is a leading cause of excess deaths in the younger age groups (4.5k March-July) even if one assumes a 50% increase in opioid deaths continues through the entire year (thus 15k this year vs 10k March-July 2018). The caveat being that there are ~7k excess deaths not accounted for and we will have to see what that breaks down in a subsequent analysis. Thus, estimated at least 4.5k deaths from covid, 5.7k deaths above baseline from opioid, and another 1.7k uncategorized/estimated. For reference, the number of people dying per week from covid is at least 7.1k (300k/42 weeks since March 1).
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2774445

[deborah]

@Abe you may be interested in this...

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes-death/provisional-mortality-statistics/latest-release

The Australian Bureau of Statistics put this out - a set of comparisons for deaths in Australia 2015-2019 v 2020 in a number of categories. We started lockdown at about 23rd March.

I've seen news stories that indicated we would be seeing higher rates of death because people wouldn't be going to the doctor during the pandemic as much, and thus would be diagnosed later when their disease was worse. This seems to indicate that diabetes and dementia deaths spiked during lockdown, but that for most other diseases we've been having a normal to low year. You'll note that the next set of stats in this series is due in a few days.

[habanero]

Could you send the link for the data on the drop in cancer and heart disease diagnoses in Norway- the US can’t get its act together to register that information within 2 years (at least for cancer, maybe they do it in a more timely fashion with heart disease) much less within a year! That’s impressive that Norway does that. We won’t know the true fallout from chronic disease in the US for some time.

The data from the national patient registery is not public as it contains tons of private data on individuals but researchers etc can send in requests for aggregated data. There is a public register for cancer broken down by year, age, gender, region and type on https://sb.kreftregisteret.no/insidens/?lang=en  where one can search for previous years (2019 latest available), its even in English as well;)

So far this year the drop in cancer diagnosis is about 8% compared to 2018 and 2019 which were pretty much identical, and I guess noone really knows how much, if any, of this is an actual drop in cases and how much is due to people not going to the doctor. There was a very large drop in tests done in march and april, it's probably more normal now I would guess.

[gaja]

Yes, the lack of cancer testing and reduction in psychological help in the spring was scary. But from what I've heard, it soon got back to almost normal, I know that those I know who need therapy and doctors' appointments have gotten them almost as normal since about May.

On the positive side, it is not only less infectious diseases that have dropped, the reduction in air pollution and stress have a substantially good health benefit on a population level. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.10.20060673v1 I'm also intrigued by the drop in premature births: https://www.forbes.com/sites/alicebroster/2020/11/17/premature-birth-rates-are-down-during-coronavirus-according-to-studies/

On the negative side, people have (on average) gotten less exercise, eaten less healthy, and, even though it sounds weird, the statistics show that meeting your coworkers has a positive influence on your health. Maybe the low level anger is healthy for us?

[habanero]

On the positive side, it is not only less infectious diseases that have dropped, the reduction in air pollution and stress have a substantially good health benefit on a population level. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.10.20060673v1 I'm also intrigued by the drop in premature births: https://www.forbes.com/sites/alicebroster/2020/11/17/premature-birth-rates-are-down-during-coronavirus-according-to-studies/

On the negative side, people have (on average) gotten less exercise, eaten less healthy, and, even though it sounds weird, the statistics show that meeting your coworkers has a positive influence on your health. Maybe the low level anger is healthy for us?

I guess there are pros and cons, as with most things and we may never know the answer. But in the national debate I am a bit baffled at how little attention these side effects get. I guess even thinking about it is part of the luxury of not having ever had a very bad Covid situation at any point. On a local forum where i am active one guy who is a GP says that there is increased worry in his community as they are now having to deal with the problems for patients not seeking medical help this spring and a lot of scheduled activity was postponed and its actively discussed inside the profession but the debate never really gets out in the public despite some attempts now and then. It's not like people are dying from it, but the prognosis are wore than they should have been for a lot of conditions due to late detection and/or treatment. Public health has, at least for now, pretty much been reduced to covid or not covid which I personally find a bit sad.

And a pretty big difference from the US is that for a lot here the whole disease is a little abstract, abart from the obvious work-from-home, restaurants closed, mask wearing in shops etc. I personally don't really know anyone who has even had covid despite living it the capital. There has been a few cases at work, but not a single among my friends, family or their extended circle. All the cases I've heard of where I actually know who the person is has all been mild (as to be expected really as only young, healthy persons).  The rest is stuff I read about in the newspaper. It is by no means to I deny it's existence or don't think it can be very bad for a lot of people, it's just that I have never really seen it myself.

[the_fixer]

Yes, the lack of cancer testing and reduction in psychological help in the spring was scary. But from what I've heard, it soon got back to almost normal, I know that those I know who need therapy and doctors' appointments have gotten them almost as normal since about May.

On the positive side, it is not only less infectious diseases that have dropped, the reduction in air pollution and stress have a substantially good health benefit on a population level. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.10.20060673v1 I'm also intrigued by the drop in premature births: https://www.forbes.com/sites/alicebroster/2020/11/17/premature-birth-rates-are-down-during-coronavirus-according-to-studies/

On the negative side, people have (on average) gotten less exercise, eaten less healthy, and, even though it sounds weird, the statistics show that meeting your coworkers has a positive influence on your health. Maybe the low level anger is healthy for us?

When the data is all sorted out I would expect lower instances of car accidents / deaths due to reduced traffic. For a few month here in Colorado the roads were empty and traffic is down overall.

Another that I wonder about is workplace accidents and even household / general accidents. At my work accidents / injuries are way down this year but the same amount of work is getting done. I know I am being extra cautious in everything I am doing from MT biking to work around the house.


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[deborah]

On the other hand, they’re very worried here about increased car accidents.

It’s summer now, and for the next six weeks (starting yesterday) all students have summer holidays. Normally, a lot of families go overseas. Now they’re going to explore Australia. Probably remote Australia - where there are dirt roads and very long distances between everything. 80% of Australia is desert - hot and dry. With covid19 people are much more likely to be driving rather than going by plane. So they’ll be driving for long hours in unfamiliar conditions.

[Paper Chaser]

Yes, the lack of cancer testing and reduction in psychological help in the spring was scary. But from what I've heard, it soon got back to almost normal, I know that those I know who need therapy and doctors' appointments have gotten them almost as normal since about May.

On the positive side, it is not only less infectious diseases that have dropped, the reduction in air pollution and stress have a substantially good health benefit on a population level. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.10.20060673v1 I'm also intrigued by the drop in premature births: https://www.forbes.com/sites/alicebroster/2020/11/17/premature-birth-rates-are-down-during-coronavirus-according-to-studies/

On the negative side, people have (on average) gotten less exercise, eaten less healthy, and, even though it sounds weird, the statistics show that meeting your coworkers has a positive influence on your health. Maybe the low level anger is healthy for us?

When the data is all sorted out I would expect lower instances of car accidents / deaths due to reduced traffic. For a few month here in Colorado the roads were empty and traffic is down overall.

Another that I wonder about is workplace accidents and even household / general accidents. At my work accidents / injuries are way down this year but the same amount of work is getting done. I know I am being extra cautious in everything I am doing from MT biking to work around the house.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Total traffic deaths are down slightly, but the rate of deadly accidents (per miles driven) has gone up. Less traffic has meant higher speeds and more reckless behavior. Also an increase in intoxicated driving.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34240145/2019-2020-traffic-deaths-coronavirus/

[Bloop Bloop Reloaded]

It's kinda sad to see that there would be an increase in intoxicated driving. It says a lot about how irresponsible people as a whole are.

Who drives drunk in this day and age? You'd have to be a fucking idiot.

[Paper Chaser]

It's kinda sad to see that there would be an increase in intoxicated driving. It says a lot about how irresponsible people as a whole are.

Who drives drunk in this day and age? You'd have to be a fucking idiot.

It's been a stressful year (in the US especially). An increase in people turning to substances for distraction or compensation makes sense to me.

[FIRE Artist]

I see some people are arguing that lockdowns cause deaths, but am having a hard time grasping the logic.

From what I've understood the fear is more of the long-term effects which will be hard to pinpoint and link cause and effect and it will also be someone else's problem down the road. The long-term effects from unemployment, small businesses going bankrupt and people loosing what they built up, people being less active, having less social contact, people not seeing their doctor when they otherwise would, drinking more and so on are probably not neglible. In countries with very low number of Covid deaths (like Norway) I don't think it's very far-fetched if someone claims that over time quality-adjusted life-years lost will be higher due to these effects than due to Covid, especially given the age distribution of Covid deaths. There is, to my understanding, an increasing worry about this in parts of the Norwegian health care system but noone is really listening as the only metric that count these days is how many die due to Covid. The rest doesn't really matter now. There is a significant drop in cancer and heart problems detected, but noone thinks that's due to cancer or heart problems going away, it's just that people to a lesser extent seek medical advice so stuff will be detected later which is never good. There was real worry about this in march/april when lots of people did not show up to appointments because they either was afraid to get infected or felt they didn't want to bother the healt care system which had more pressing causes (Covid) to handle.

That Norway has less deaths (albeit quite few less) than usual is as to be expected - there are very few from Covid and also less of pretty much every infectious disease which is a very common cause of death among the elderly. Last flu season came to a sudden stop due to Covid measures and this winter there probably won't even be a flu season for the same reason. There is also less general activity which means less accidents etc. Suicides are a tiny part of the picture, that's quite far down the list of death causes in a normal year so even a slight increase won't really show up.

Shouldn't there also be a corresponding reduction in the suicides caused by being around other people?

All this suicide talk seems to be heavily based upon the assumption that folks are happier when they're forced to interact with other assholes on a regular basis.

Alberta released the suicide stats a week ago, with one month to go in the year, suicides were down by 100 case from last year, but opioid deaths were up.  The premier actually is admitting responsibility for the opioid deaths by cutting spaces in treatment plans early in the pandemic, he has had a hate on for opioid treatment programs since he came into office, so maybe he will change his tune in general...we can only wish. 

[marty998]

I see some people are arguing that lockdowns cause deaths, but am having a hard time grasping the logic.

From what I've understood the fear is more of the long-term effects which will be hard to pinpoint and link cause and effect and it will also be someone else's problem down the road. The long-term effects from unemployment, small businesses going bankrupt and people loosing what they built up, people being less active, having less social contact, people not seeing their doctor when they otherwise would, drinking more and so on are probably not neglible. In countries with very low number of Covid deaths (like Norway) I don't think it's very far-fetched if someone claims that over time quality-adjusted life-years lost will be higher due to these effects than due to Covid, especially given the age distribution of Covid deaths. There is, to my understanding, an increasing worry about this in parts of the Norwegian health care system but noone is really listening as the only metric that count these days is how many die due to Covid. The rest doesn't really matter now. There is a significant drop in cancer and heart problems detected, but noone thinks that's due to cancer or heart problems going away, it's just that people to a lesser extent seek medical advice so stuff will be detected later which is never good. There was real worry about this in march/april when lots of people did not show up to appointments because they either was afraid to get infected or felt they didn't want to bother the healt care system which had more pressing causes (Covid) to handle.

That Norway has less deaths (albeit quite few less) than usual is as to be expected - there are very few from Covid and also less of pretty much every infectious disease which is a very common cause of death among the elderly. Last flu season came to a sudden stop due to Covid measures and this winter there probably won't even be a flu season for the same reason. There is also less general activity which means less accidents etc. Suicides are a tiny part of the picture, that's quite far down the list of death causes in a normal year so even a slight increase won't really show up.

Shouldn't there also be a corresponding reduction in the suicides caused by being around other people?

All this suicide talk seems to be heavily based upon the assumption that folks are happier when they're forced to interact with other assholes on a regular basis.

Alberta released the suicide stats a week ago, with one month to go in the year, suicides were down by 100 case from last year, but opioid deaths were up.  The premier actually is admitting responsibility for the opioid deaths by cutting spaces in treatment plans early in the pandemic, he has had a hate on for opioid treatment programs since he came into office, so maybe he will change his tune in general...we can only wish.

Something something in bed with Purdue something something.

Maybe I'm just too cynical. Or mixing up Alberta with some of the states in the US that seem under the thumb of that pharmaceutical company.

[Plina]

I see some people are arguing that lockdowns cause deaths, but am having a hard time grasping the logic.

From what I've understood the fear is more of the long-term effects which will be hard to pinpoint and link cause and effect and it will also be someone else's problem down the road. The long-term effects from unemployment, small businesses going bankrupt and people loosing what they built up, people being less active, having less social contact, people not seeing their doctor when they otherwise would, drinking more and so on are probably not neglible. In countries with very low number of Covid deaths (like Norway) I don't think it's very far-fetched if someone claims that over time quality-adjusted life-years lost will be higher due to these effects than due to Covid, especially given the age distribution of Covid deaths. There is, to my understanding, an increasing worry about this in parts of the Norwegian health care system but noone is really listening as the only metric that count these days is how many die due to Covid. The rest doesn't really matter now. There is a significant drop in cancer and heart problems detected, but noone thinks that's due to cancer or heart problems going away, it's just that people to a lesser extent seek medical advice so stuff will be detected later which is never good. There was real worry about this in march/april when lots of people did not show up to appointments because they either was afraid to get infected or felt they didn't want to bother the healt care system which had more pressing causes (Covid) to handle.

That Norway has less deaths (albeit quite few less) than usual is as to be expected - there are very few from Covid and also less of pretty much every infectious disease which is a very common cause of death among the elderly. Last flu season came to a sudden stop due to Covid measures and this winter there probably won't even be a flu season for the same reason. There is also less general activity which means less accidents etc. Suicides are a tiny part of the picture, that's quite far down the list of death causes in a normal year so even a slight increase won't really show up.

Shouldn't there also be a corresponding reduction in the suicides caused by being around other people?

All this suicide talk seems to be heavily based upon the assumption that folks are happier when they're forced to interact with other assholes on a regular basis.

I read somewhere that suicide related to financial difficulties go down when there is a downturn in economy because if it sucks for a lot of people so you don’t need to feel like a loser and feel bad about your circumstances because you can blame it on the economy.

Also, it seems that people that are bullied in school and workplaces are also striving at home because they don’t have to deal with bullies daily. That might also decrease suicide rates.

[Wolfpack Mustachian]

I see some people are arguing that lockdowns cause deaths, but am having a hard time grasping the logic.

From what I've understood the fear is more of the long-term effects which will be hard to pinpoint and link cause and effect and it will also be someone else's problem down the road. The long-term effects from unemployment, small businesses going bankrupt and people loosing what they built up, people being less active, having less social contact, people not seeing their doctor when they otherwise would, drinking more and so on are probably not neglible. In countries with very low number of Covid deaths (like Norway) I don't think it's very far-fetched if someone claims that over time quality-adjusted life-years lost will be higher due to these effects than due to Covid, especially given the age distribution of Covid deaths. There is, to my understanding, an increasing worry about this in parts of the Norwegian health care system but noone is really listening as the only metric that count these days is how many die due to Covid. The rest doesn't really matter now. There is a significant drop in cancer and heart problems detected, but noone thinks that's due to cancer or heart problems going away, it's just that people to a lesser extent seek medical advice so stuff will be detected later which is never good. There was real worry about this in march/april when lots of people did not show up to appointments because they either was afraid to get infected or felt they didn't want to bother the healt care system which had more pressing causes (Covid) to handle.

That Norway has less deaths (albeit quite few less) than usual is as to be expected - there are very few from Covid and also less of pretty much every infectious disease which is a very common cause of death among the elderly. Last flu season came to a sudden stop due to Covid measures and this winter there probably won't even be a flu season for the same reason. There is also less general activity which means less accidents etc. Suicides are a tiny part of the picture, that's quite far down the list of death causes in a normal year so even a slight increase won't really show up.

Shouldn't there also be a corresponding reduction in the suicides caused by being around other people?

All this suicide talk seems to be heavily based upon the assumption that folks are happier when they're forced to interact with other assholes on a regular basis.

I read somewhere that suicide related to financial difficulties go down when there is a downturn in economy because if it sucks for a lot of people so you don’t need to feel like a loser and feel bad about your circumstances because you can blame it on the economy.

Also, it seems that people that are bullied in school and workplaces are also striving at home because they don’t have to deal with bullies daily. That might also decrease suicide rates.

Like everything else, there is likely a spectrum of possibilities. Without data, it's all speculation, and data will probably be hard to come by. That being said, I'm sure there are edge cases where people are in terrible situations away from home that are made better, but I imagine those are offset by the terrible home situations people now can't get away from in some sort of a wash (although I bet the home situations are a net worse, but that's totally a gut feeling). Then, you have the overall reality that people are social creatures, and I don't think that's going to be offset by anything. The vast majority of people who can't see others regularly are going to be less happy in my opinion.

[Kyle Schuant]

I read somewhere that suicide related to financial difficulties go down when there is a downturn in economy because if it sucks for a lot of people so you don’t need to feel like a loser and feel bad about your circumstances because you can blame it on the economy.

No.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/melaniehaiken/2014/06/12/more-than-10000-suicides-tied-to-economic-crisis-study-says/?sh=467369c17ae2

We know from other studies that suicides tend to be delayed from the onset of the recession, and to be less in countries with better social welfare safety nets.

Consider that someone is unlikely to lose their job and come straight home and hang themselves. But if they are still unemployed 6-12 months later they will have run through any savings and immediate job opportunities, will be under financial stress, perhaps lost their home, may have had a marriage breakup and lost contact with children, and due to lack of income will no longer socialise with friends. The rope and rafter in the garage look more tempting in that case.

Consider too that there is a difference, both in financial stress and social stigma, in a system such as France's where a person can draw an average of 65% their previous salary for 2 (under 50yo) to 3 (over 50yo) years, compared to a system like that of the US. (Various systems are described here - https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/15/which-best-countries-live-unemployed-disabled-benefits).

[MayDay]

It's kinda sad to see that there would be an increase in intoxicated driving. It says a lot about how irresponsible people as a whole are.

Who drives drunk in this day and age? You'd have to be a fucking idiot.

It's been a stressful year (in the US especially). An increase in people turning to substances for distraction or compensation makes sense to me.

I don't know if actual data backs this up, but I hear about it much more in rural communities. In towns/cities it's pretty easy to Uber or walk home.

[Paper Chaser]

It's kinda sad to see that there would be an increase in intoxicated driving. It says a lot about how irresponsible people as a whole are.

Who drives drunk in this day and age? You'd have to be a fucking idiot.

It's been a stressful year (in the US especially). An increase in people turning to substances for distraction or compensation makes sense to me.

I don't know if actual data backs this up, but I hear about it much more in rural communities. In towns/cities it's pretty easy to Uber or walk home.

I'd bet that there's data to support that claim. People everywhere are stressed, and self medicating but places with little/no public transit or walkability probably do see a higher percentage of driving under the influence of various substances. Those places also tend to have higher speed limits than more dense urban areas.

That being said, I don't know that this is strictly a rural problem. If you're stressed about a viral pandemic how comfortable are you likely to be with the idea of being in a confined space inside a stranger's vehicle or public transit? As far as I know, public transit use is way down and vehicle ownership is increasing in urban areas this year. Not just in the US, but several other developed nations that have been heavily impacted by COVID too. I've read multiple posts here on this forum from people considering purchasing their own personal vehicle because they were now unwilling to use public transit due to safety concerns. Apparently that's not a unique outlook:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/08/millennials-are-buying-covid-cars/615325/

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/10/07/2105014/0/en/Is-Car-Ownership-Threatening-the-Future-of-Cities-New-Zipcar-Impact-Report-Sounds-the-Alarm.html

https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20201202-why-our-reliance-on-cars-could-start-booming

Also worth noting that while bars and restaurants were completely closed or restricted in many places during the pandemic, liquor stores remained open. So places where a friend, or a bartender might be able to lookout for you and grab your keys or call an Uber on your behalf were off limits or less appealing than drinking at home where you don't have to wear a mask or be around potentially contagious strangers. But then you want more to drink, or want some munchies or whatever and the liquor store isn't close enough to walk so...

[GuitarStv]

I see some people are arguing that lockdowns cause deaths, but am having a hard time grasping the logic.

From what I've understood the fear is more of the long-term effects which will be hard to pinpoint and link cause and effect and it will also be someone else's problem down the road. The long-term effects from unemployment, small businesses going bankrupt and people loosing what they built up, people being less active, having less social contact, people not seeing their doctor when they otherwise would, drinking more and so on are probably not neglible. In countries with very low number of Covid deaths (like Norway) I don't think it's very far-fetched if someone claims that over time quality-adjusted life-years lost will be higher due to these effects than due to Covid, especially given the age distribution of Covid deaths. There is, to my understanding, an increasing worry about this in parts of the Norwegian health care system but noone is really listening as the only metric that count these days is how many die due to Covid. The rest doesn't really matter now. There is a significant drop in cancer and heart problems detected, but noone thinks that's due to cancer or heart problems going away, it's just that people to a lesser extent seek medical advice so stuff will be detected later which is never good. There was real worry about this in march/april when lots of people did not show up to appointments because they either was afraid to get infected or felt they didn't want to bother the healt care system which had more pressing causes (Covid) to handle.

That Norway has less deaths (albeit quite few less) than usual is as to be expected - there are very few from Covid and also less of pretty much every infectious disease which is a very common cause of death among the elderly. Last flu season came to a sudden stop due to Covid measures and this winter there probably won't even be a flu season for the same reason. There is also less general activity which means less accidents etc. Suicides are a tiny part of the picture, that's quite far down the list of death causes in a normal year so even a slight increase won't really show up.

Shouldn't there also be a corresponding reduction in the suicides caused by being around other people?

All this suicide talk seems to be heavily based upon the assumption that folks are happier when they're forced to interact with other assholes on a regular basis.

I read somewhere that suicide related to financial difficulties go down when there is a downturn in economy because if it sucks for a lot of people so you don’t need to feel like a loser and feel bad about your circumstances because you can blame it on the economy.

Also, it seems that people that are bullied in school and workplaces are also striving at home because they don’t have to deal with bullies daily. That might also decrease suicide rates.

Like everything else, there is likely a spectrum of possibilities. Without data, it's all speculation, and data will probably be hard to come by. That being said, I'm sure there are edge cases where people are in terrible situations away from home that are made better, but I imagine those are offset by the terrible home situations people now can't get away from in some sort of a wash (although I bet the home situations are a net worse, but that's totally a gut feeling). Then, you have the overall reality that people are social creatures, and I don't think that's going to be offset by anything. The vast majority of people who can't see others regularly are going to be less happy in my opinion.

I'll be interested to go over the data at the end of this.

This was a giant upheaval to my life, and for the first few months it was pretty depressing and difficult.  I'd argue that I've been happier on the whole for the past few months than I was before the pandemic started though . . . The positives (less interaction with co-workers I don't like, less commuting, less stress related to Christmas and culturally enforced travel from place to place, more time spent with my wife and son, more exercise, more free time to play guitar) seem to be outweighing the negatives (reduced pay at work, still need to go in to the office semi-regularly, more difficulty shopping, home schooling while trying to work, concern for my parents, not being able to see friends or family, etc.) at the moment.

[frugalnacho]

I never missed a single day of work due to shutdowns, we remained open and at full capacity the entire time. 

Shopping has become easier.  Every place has super convenient online shopping and will either ship it, or do curbside pick up where they just drop everything off right in your trunk.  If a store doesn't do that, then fuck em I'm shopping at some place that does.  The grocery store is by far the most convenient.  For the same price I'd pay by shopping myself I now get to do my shopping on my computer in a matter of minutes, not get exposed to a bunch of people in store, and not waste my time shopping or standing in line.  Perhaps the best part of it is we can just do it online, then my wife and son can go pick up the groceries and put them away while I'm at work.  Now instead of having to do a frantic shopping trip on the weekend, or lose 1.5 hours of my time on a weeknight, I instead do nothing but show up to a fridge full of groceries every week.  Another feature of the online shopping I really love is the equal price substitutions.  If I actually go into the store and the 16 ounce sour cream that is on sale is sold out, I have no options but to buy a brand not on sale, or a size that's not on sale and/or has a substantially higher unit price.  But with the price matching they will just substitute another brand of the same size in for the same price, or just 2 of the 8 ounce containers but still charge me the price for the one that's on sale.  With how frequently they are out of stuff this is a huge advantage vs actually shopping in the store.  And they don't even charge anything for the service! It's the same price (actually cheaper since we get price matched substitutes) as shopping in person, except better in almost every respect.  One thing I don't like is that I don't have the option to personally pick the produce we order, but they've actually been really awesome about getting us good quality stuff - they've picked it as well as I would have. 

[Plina]

I read somewhere that suicide related to financial difficulties go down when there is a downturn in economy because if it sucks for a lot of people so you don’t need to feel like a loser and feel bad about your circumstances because you can blame it on the economy.

No.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/melaniehaiken/2014/06/12/more-than-10000-suicides-tied-to-economic-crisis-study-says/?sh=467369c17ae2

We know from other studies that suicides tend to be delayed from the onset of the recession, and to be less in countries with better social welfare safety nets.

Consider that someone is unlikely to lose their job and come straight home and hang themselves. But if they are still unemployed 6-12 months later they will have run through any savings and immediate job opportunities, will be under financial stress, perhaps lost their home, may have had a marriage breakup and lost contact with children, and due to lack of income will no longer socialise with friends. The rope and rafter in the garage look more tempting in that case.

Consider too that there is a difference, both in financial stress and social stigma, in a system such as France's where a person can draw an average of 65% their previous salary for 2 (under 50yo) to 3 (over 50yo) years, compared to a system like that of the US. (Various systems are described here - https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/15/which-best-countries-live-unemployed-disabled-benefits).

The first article mentioned that suicide rates in Sweden don’t generally go up in economic downturns. The article, that I read was from Sweden. I guess it makes sense as the unemployment benefits if you are paying for them, are pretty ok in general in Sweden and have been bumped up during the pandemic.

It might be different in US, were on a societal level it is more prayers and thoughts for the unlucky.

If you generalize, it seems like extroverts think it is the end of the world to have to stay home and introverts see it in a more positive light. And add to the mix people that are abused, alcoholics, drugusers or have mental health problems, that needs help to deal with their specific situation.

[DaMa]

I never missed a single day of work due to shutdowns, we remained open and at full capacity the entire time. 

Shopping has become easier.  Every place has super convenient online shopping and will either ship it, or do curbside pick up where they just drop everything off right in your trunk.  If a store doesn't do that, then fuck em I'm shopping at some place that does.  The grocery store is by far the most convenient.  For the same price I'd pay by shopping myself I now get to do my shopping on my computer in a matter of minutes, not get exposed to a bunch of people in store, and not waste my time shopping or standing in line.  Perhaps the best part of it is we can just do it online, then my wife and son can go pick up the groceries and put them away while I'm at work.  Now instead of having to do a frantic shopping trip on the weekend, or lose 1.5 hours of my time on a weeknight, I instead do nothing but show up to a fridge full of groceries every week.  Another feature of the online shopping I really love is the equal price substitutions.  If I actually go into the store and the 16 ounce sour cream that is on sale is sold out, I have no options but to buy a brand not on sale, or a size that's not on sale and/or has a substantially higher unit price.  But with the price matching they will just substitute another brand of the same size in for the same price, or just 2 of the 8 ounce containers but still charge me the price for the one that's on sale.  With how frequently they are out of stuff this is a huge advantage vs actually shopping in the store.  And they don't even charge anything for the service! It's the same price (actually cheaper since we get price matched substitutes) as shopping in person, except better in almost every respect.  One thing I don't like is that I don't have the option to personally pick the produce we order, but they've actually been really awesome about getting us good quality stuff - they've picked it as well as I would have.

I'm with you!  I've never been a regular Meijer shopper, but their curbside is the best I've encountered so far.  I may never enter a grocery store again.  I've also had good results on produce.

I laughed at your example.  I wanted an 8 oz container of sour cream, but it was $1.59 and the 16 oz was on sale for $1.  So I ordered the 16.  They gave me 2 of the 8.  One will go to my DIL.  Win/win!

[Poundwise]

If you generalize, it seems like extroverts think it is the end of the world to have to stay home and introverts see it in a more positive light. And add to the mix people that are abused, alcoholics, drugusers or have mental health problems, that needs help to deal with their specific situation.

Frankly the endless togetherness is getting on my nerves!  Wherever I go in my home, there is a person, a Zoom, and a mess!

[Caoineag]

If you generalize, it seems like extroverts think it is the end of the world to have to stay home and introverts see it in a more positive light. And add to the mix people that are abused, alcoholics, drugusers or have mental health problems, that needs help to deal with their specific situation.

Frankly the endless togetherness is getting on my nerves!  Wherever I go in my home, there is a person, a Zoom, and a mess!

May I say as an introvert who despises having her photo taken that my extroverted relatives discovering zoom is my definition of hell. Fortunately we don't have the stable internet connection for it since we are full time travelers and are lucky to have phone and internet service some of the times so we have dodged that bullet for now (most of my family is trained that two weeks radio silence probably means off grid and remote not dead). I infinitely prefer texting and email, will do phone calls for those who like to chat but I  do not want to do a zoom call!!!

[HPstache]

When do we think that we will start seeing the death curve flattened?  I do not expect to see much of a difference in the new case curve, but once the most vulnerable get the vaccine I do think we will see the total deaths start to flatten.  Maybe March?

[deborah]

Depends where you live. We won’t be getting the vaccine at all until March - and we preordered. When will South American countries and other poor countries with high death tolls get it - in a few years?

[HPstache]

Depends where you live. We won’t be getting the vaccine at all until March - and we preordered. When will South American countries and other poor countries with high death tolls get it - in a few years?

Sorry.  I was referring the the USA.

[Paper Chaser]

When do we think that we will start seeing the death curve flattened?  I do not expect to see much of a difference in the new case curve, but once the most vulnerable get the vaccine I do think we will see the total deaths start to flatten.  Maybe March?

On a national level, I'm going to guess late Jan/early Feb. CA's case numbers are still rising enough to offset decreasing cases in other places. That being said, hospitalizations started declining in the red hot Midwest around Thanksgiving:



And 7 day average for deaths are declining in 14 states while flat in another 18, so hopefully that trend continues to improve:

[deborah]

Depends where you live. We won’t be getting the vaccine at all until March - and we preordered. When will South American countries and other poor countries with high death tolls get it - in a few years?

Sorry.  I was referring the the USA.

Other countries matter too.

We’re lucky, and we don’t mind waiting as it will probably work out ok for us, especially as we’ll find out about any problems before vaccinating the entire population.

But if the rich world insists on getting all the vaccines for the first few years of production, which is the current estimate, there will be problems. If the Chinese give vaccines to poor countries, because they’ve developed their own, and the US steals vaccines that other countries have paid for (your current president has already signed an executive order that all vaccines produced there will remain there), China will have a lot more positive relationships than the US. The executive order will also encourage pharmaceutical companies to produce more of their vaccines outside the US, so it may impact you in other ways.

It’s worth a lot to the US to think these things through.

[GuitarStv]

If you generalize, it seems like extroverts think it is the end of the world to have to stay home and introverts see it in a more positive light. And add to the mix people that are abused, alcoholics, drugusers or have mental health problems, that needs help to deal with their specific situation.

Frankly the endless togetherness is getting on my nerves!  Wherever I go in my home, there is a person, a Zoom, and a mess!

May I say as an introvert who despises having her photo taken that my extroverted relatives discovering zoom is my definition of hell. Fortunately we don't have the stable internet connection for it since we are full time travelers and are lucky to have phone and internet service some of the times so we have dodged that bullet for now (most of my family is trained that two weeks radio silence probably means off grid and remote not dead). I infinitely prefer texting and email, will do phone calls for those who like to chat but I  do not want to do a zoom call!!!

Just put a post-it note over your camera lens, and pretend confusion about the video problems.  That's what I do.

[HPstache]

Depends where you live. We won’t be getting the vaccine at all until March - and we preordered. When will South American countries and other poor countries with high death tolls get it - in a few years?

Sorry.  I was referring the the USA.

Other countries matter too.

We’re lucky, and we don’t mind waiting as it will probably work out ok for us, especially as we’ll find out about any problems before vaccinating the entire population.

But if the rich world insists on getting all the vaccines for the first few years of production, which is the current estimate, there will be problems. If the Chinese give vaccines to poor countries, because they’ve developed their own, and the US steals vaccines that other countries have paid for (your current president has already signed an executive order that all vaccines produced there will remain there), China will have a lot more positive relationships than the US. The executive order will also encourage pharmaceutical companies to produce more of their vaccines outside the US, so it may impact you in other ways.

It’s worth a lot to the US to think these things through.

You said, "Depends on where you live".

I apologized for not being specific and mentioned where I lived.

You now infer that I don't think other countries matter...

Nice!

[deborah]

Sorry for misinterpreting! I am also quite worried about the availability of vaccines worldwide and think it’s worth mentioning, particularly as the US has not participated in international plans to make them universally available.

[OtherJen]

If you generalize, it seems like extroverts think it is the end of the world to have to stay home and introverts see it in a more positive light. And add to the mix people that are abused, alcoholics, drugusers or have mental health problems, that needs help to deal with their specific situation.

Frankly the endless togetherness is getting on my nerves!  Wherever I go in my home, there is a person, a Zoom, and a mess!

May I say as an introvert who despises having her photo taken that my extroverted relatives discovering zoom is my definition of hell. Fortunately we don't have the stable internet connection for it since we are full time travelers and are lucky to have phone and internet service some of the times so we have dodged that bullet for now (most of my family is trained that two weeks radio silence probably means off grid and remote not dead). I infinitely prefer texting and email, will do phone calls for those who like to chat but I  do not want to do a zoom call!!!

Just put a post-it note over your camera lens, and pretend confusion about the video problems.  That's what I do.

Or turn off your video, minimize the Zoom window, and treat it as an audio call.

I'm also an introvert. I too prefer text and email. I hate almost all audio calls, especially group calls. I really like Zoom and Facetime because I can see and interpret people's facial expressions. It makes the communication so much easier for me.

[the_fixer]

Depends where you live. We won’t be getting the vaccine at all until March - and we preordered. When will South American countries and other poor countries with high death tolls get it - in a few years?

Sorry.  I was referring the the USA.

Other countries matter too.

We’re lucky, and we don’t mind waiting as it will probably work out ok for us, especially as we’ll find out about any problems before vaccinating the entire population.

But if the rich world insists on getting all the vaccines for the first few years of production, which is the current estimate, there will be problems. If the Chinese give vaccines to poor countries, because they’ve developed their own, and the US steals vaccines that other countries have paid for (your current president has already signed an executive order that all vaccines produced there will remain there), China will have a lot more positive relationships than the US. The executive order will also encourage pharmaceutical companies to produce more of their vaccines outside the US, so it may impact you in other ways.

It’s worth a lot to the US to think these things through.

While he signed an executive order I do not think it has had an impact. Phizer even said that they were not changing their orders and that the US was offered and refused additional vaccine doses so other countries are ahead of the US in the line so they will have to wait.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Caoineag]

If you generalize, it seems like extroverts think it is the end of the world to have to stay home and introverts see it in a more positive light. And add to the mix people that are abused, alcoholics, drugusers or have mental health problems, that needs help to deal with their specific situation.

Frankly the endless togetherness is getting on my nerves!  Wherever I go in my home, there is a person, a Zoom, and a mess!

May I say as an introvert who despises having her photo taken that my extroverted relatives discovering zoom is my definition of hell. Fortunately we don't have the stable internet connection for it since we are full time travelers and are lucky to have phone and internet service some of the times so we have dodged that bullet for now (most of my family is trained that two weeks radio silence probably means off grid and remote not dead). I infinitely prefer texting and email, will do phone calls for those who like to chat but I  do not want to do a zoom call!!!

Just put a post-it note over your camera lens, and pretend confusion about the video problems.  That's what I do.

Or turn off your video, minimize the Zoom window, and treat it as an audio call.

I'm also an introvert. I too prefer text and email. I hate almost all audio calls, especially group calls. I really like Zoom and Facetime because I can see and interpret people's facial expressions. It makes the communication so much easier for me.

I have made my peace with audio, my step mom loves to talk (record is 5 hours, 1 1/2 hours is considered a short call, 3 hours common). Needless to say, I multi task. I have cooked whole meals, completed all my shopping and scrubbed the house (back when I had one) from floor to ceiling. She doesn't require much input from me and it makes her happy.

I am actually really good with tonal inflections and prefer to sit next to someone or at a 90 degree angle when chatting, not across from them. I find constant face to face interaction off-putting, even in person. In a group setting around a table I have no issue because who you are looking at constantly changes. I have even turned on the screensaver when someone has a giant photo of a person as their background and I am covering their desk at work because it was too jarring for me. Just a weird quirk of mine I guess.

[Plina]

If you generalize, it seems like extroverts think it is the end of the world to have to stay home and introverts see it in a more positive light. And add to the mix people that are abused, alcoholics, drugusers or have mental health problems, that needs help to deal with their specific situation.

Frankly the endless togetherness is getting on my nerves!  Wherever I go in my home, there is a person, a Zoom, and a mess!

May I say as an introvert who despises having her photo taken that my extroverted relatives discovering zoom is my definition of hell. Fortunately we don't have the stable internet connection for it since we are full time travelers and are lucky to have phone and internet service some of the times so we have dodged that bullet for now (most of my family is trained that two weeks radio silence probably means off grid and remote not dead). I infinitely prefer texting and email, will do phone calls for those who like to chat but I  do not want to do a zoom call!!!

Just put a post-it note over your camera lens, and pretend confusion about the video problems.  That's what I do.

Or turn off your video, minimize the Zoom window, and treat it as an audio call.

I'm also an introvert. I too prefer text and email. I hate almost all audio calls, especially group calls. I really like Zoom and Facetime because I can see and interpret people's facial expressions. It makes the communication so much easier for me.

I have made my peace with audio, my step mom loves to talk (record is 5 hours, 1 1/2 hours is considered a short call, 3 hours common). Needless to say, I multi task. I have cooked whole meals, completed all my shopping and scrubbed the house (back when I had one) from floor to ceiling. She doesn't require much input from me and it makes her happy.

I am actually really good with tonal inflections and prefer to sit next to someone or at a 90 degree angle when chatting, not across from them. I find constant face to face interaction off-putting, even in person. In a group setting around a table I have no issue because who you are looking at constantly changes. I have even turned on the screensaver when someone has a giant photo of a person as their background and I am covering their desk at work because it was too jarring for me. Just a weird quirk of mine I guess.

I am not more in contact with my relatives more than normally as I live across the country so zoom is no issue. When we call we have a normal telephone call. In conference calls with many people were my contribution is not necessary I turn of the video and cook or iron. I normally call people when I am on walks. Then I get ”company” as well as a chat.

[cerat0n1a]

Sorry for misinterpreting! I am also quite worried about the availability of vaccines worldwide and think it’s worth mentioning, particularly as the US has not participated in international plans to make them universally available.

I think there has been a reasonable amount of thought gone into this - google covax or cepi for details.

The EU organised a fundraiser with other first world countries (US included, but also UK/AUS/CAN/Japan) that put up $8 billion in funding to the companies developing vaccines. The Oxford vaccine will be made available at cost to low- and middle income countries in perpetuity, the EU has committed to donating all vaccine doses that it ordered but does not use. Since then, the G20 announced further pledges (e.g. from Saudi Arabia) to further fund vaccination in low income countries. The Oxford vaccine has been licensed by AstraZeneca for production in India and they expect to produce 1 billion doses for local use once WHO approval is given. So, yes, rich countries will get vaccinated first, but the world at large does seem to have done a pretty decent job of planning and paying for a mass vaccination.