Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 253700 times)

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3800 on: September 10, 2020, 04:33:44 PM »
Lots of common respiratory diseases cause long term or permanent lung scarring/damage, especially if they're severe.

That's not to minimize Covid's dangerousness, but it's not unique in that way.

-W

chemistk

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3801 on: September 10, 2020, 04:53:50 PM »
@Longwaytogo I did not omit a word in my opening line. It's not a sentiment I've seen restricted to this forum, either.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3802 on: September 10, 2020, 05:19:47 PM »
Here is another way of looking at it, at a population level (not infection rate, since the denominator is total population and numerator is known cases):

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Mortality Rate by age per 100k population: Influenza, 2018-2019:

0-4 (poor babies!): 1.3
5-17: 0.4
18-49: 1.8
50-64: 9
65+: 48.7

Estimated Mortality Rate by Age per 100k population, COVID-19
0-4: 0.17
5-14: 0.07
15-45: 4.0
46-64: 37.6
65+: 265

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

If you look at the death rates from influenza or COVID-19, you can see that the latter is more deadly at a population level around age 15 (Table 1).

Is this a valid comparison considering we've had covid restrictions since the beginning of the covid data, and normally just let flu run rampant? 

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3803 on: September 10, 2020, 05:21:20 PM »
@Longwaytogo I did not omit a word in my opening line. It's not a sentiment I've seen restricted to this forum, either.

Gotcha; just re read your post. Your opening line was a title or a Re: kids dying in school.

But you don't think kids dying in school is a big risk and your kids are going to in person school. The "re" is the part I missed I think.

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3804 on: September 10, 2020, 05:23:13 PM »
Lots of common respiratory diseases cause long term or permanent lung scarring/damage, especially if they're severe.

That's not to minimize Covid's dangerousness, but it's not unique in that way.

-W

That was my impression too; thats its common in many diseases. But the reporting to me seems to imply its unique to Covid which seems a bit alarmist and misleading.

alsoknownasDean

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3805 on: September 10, 2020, 05:59:16 PM »
Isn't the bigger risk that the virus is transmitted to/between teachers, who may be in more vulnerable age groups/states of health?

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3806 on: September 10, 2020, 06:21:10 PM »
Lots of common respiratory diseases cause long term or permanent lung scarring/damage, especially if they're severe.

That's not to minimize Covid's dangerousness, but it's not unique in that way.

-W

That was my impression too; thats its common in many diseases. But the reporting to me seems to imply its unique to Covid which seems a bit alarmist and misleading.

Rheumatic fever was named that because it could cause permanent heart damage.  Severe cases of measles could cause blindness.  We now know chickenpox can resurface as shingles.

The point with discussing long term damage from Covid is that a lot of early commentary ignored severe effects and presented the situation as either death or recovery, no nuances.

We do have flu prevention efforts, flu vaccination every fall.  The vaccine is not 100% effective, but it is there.  People just need to take advantage of it.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3807 on: September 10, 2020, 06:39:53 PM »
Isn't the bigger risk that the virus is transmitted to/between teachers, who may be in more vulnerable age groups/states of health?

And taken home to everyone. 

Gin1984

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3808 on: September 10, 2020, 06:58:59 PM »
Was she set up? Certainly. Was it in general low risk? Absolutely.

Is do what I say, not what I do hypocrisy worthy of being called out? Absolutely. Especially when you act like a spoiled brat about it by whining about being set up instead of admitting you made a mistake.

These all are compatible and true, and it's not clutching pearls to rightfully mock her actions and response to it.

ETA: Most conservatives I know aren't clutching pearls about it - they're not aghast, shocked, or righteously condemning. They're mocking her actions and response, and her actions and response are, imo, worthy of mockery.

I just don't understand why hypocrisy is seen as a bad thing.

There are many reasons why you might (logically and rationally) say "Do as I say, not as I do".

The egalitarian notion that we should all be subject to the same set of rules in all circumstances makes no sense to me.

It's a bit like requiring everyone to pay a flat rate of tax, really. It doesn't allow for objective differences in situations.

Well, in this example, assuming you believe that the US is doing a poor job of handling the Corona and fighting an uphill battle against people not wanting to do basic precautions, one of the leading Democrats, supposedly the party championing science for the virus and taking scientifically prescribed measures (i.e. wearing a mask), seen not doing it does a non-zero amount of harm for promoting people wearing masks.

I don't see it as a partisan thing. But it's kinda my point. It's only seen as inconsistent/hypocritical because our messaging is so goddamn basic. "Wear a mask." It should be more like, "Self-assess your likelihood of contracting covid/passing it on to others depending on how many people you encounter in risky situations and then wear a mask in most cases particularly when indoors and social distancing can't be maintained." Under that reasonable and rational guideline, what Pelosi did was fine. It's only because we insist on having blunt, stupid messaging ("wear a mask at all times when you're outside the house!") that it even becomes an issue.
The mask is to protect others around you, mostly. Given her position, she is likely tested twice a week.  If she is negative, her not wearing a mask has no risk as she is not infectious.

Thats a sort of ridiculous sentiment I think. Doctors, Nurses, EMT's, pro athletes, etc. Are getting tested weekly. So none of them should wear a mask in public?

Thats a quick way to have the general public "I've had a negative test so I'm good" . soon nobody will be wearing masks with that attitude.
Doctors, nurses and EMTs should be wearing N95 masks to protect themselves, not just others. And if you can't understand the difference between two individuals in an isolated room with one masked and the other tested multiple times a week and multiple people in large groups who have not been tested at all, I can't help you.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2020, 07:04:29 PM by Gin1984 »

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3809 on: September 10, 2020, 07:05:54 PM »
Biggest hurdle to me now is figuring out schools. Virtual school is horrible IMO.

So are funerals for children IMO.

Dramatic, much?

I used to think that people on this forum were better than average at using math and statistics in daily life.  Seems I was wrong about that.

In all of Australia there's no one under 33 who's died from coronavirus. There was one guy in his 20s who died and the premier cited him as "look, it kills young people too" but now that's suspected of having been a drug overdose and it's been removed from the fatality stats. The papers don't even publish the aggregate fatality stats because only 4 people under 50 have died in the whole country and the median decade of death is the 80s.

A lot of the coronavirus stuff is just about optics. Right now out of our 1400 active cases over 1000 are concentrated in aged care and hospitals - we're not even talking about family members of same (who you would think would account for most of the remainder), just employees/patients - and yet our whole state remains in stage 3/4 lockdown essentially because Australians are so egalitarian that they'd rather lock the whole community down than simply say to healthcare workers and their families that they need to do a mandatory self-quarantine.

Meanwhile children are being kept to "learn from home" which does not work for anyone but the best educated parents and children. We will have dumb (or maybe I should say dumber) children as a result of this. No one seems to articulate this concern because again, it's invisible.

I'm kinda over it - the weather is nice, there are sufficient exemptions for me to do what I like, etc etc...but I do weep for the failure of critical thinking skills of a huge proportion of the population.

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3810 on: September 10, 2020, 07:23:55 PM »
The mask is to protect others around you, mostly. Given her position, she is likely tested twice a week.  If she is negative, her not wearing a mask has no risk as she is not infectious.

Thats a sort of ridiculous sentiment I think. Doctors, Nurses, EMT's, pro athletes, etc. Are getting tested weekly. So none of them should wear a mask in public?

Thats a quick way to have the general public "I've had a negative test so I'm good" . soon nobody will be wearing masks with that attitude.
Doctors, nurses and EMTs should be wearing N95 masks to protect themselves, not just others. And if you can't understand the difference between two individuals in an isolated room with one masked and the other tested multiple times a week and multiple people in large groups who have not been tested at all, I can't help you.

I don't need your help so we're all good :D

I think your misunderstanding what I meant though. Of course Dr's/Nurses etc. need masks when working and in large groups.

I was using your example with Pelosi - If I'm a Doctor and I have a negative test on Thursday I shouldn't be able to just walk into my barbers Friday and say "I had a negative test yesterday so I'm all good, no mask needed" and expect my barber (or society at large in Pelosi's case) to be OK with that.

Testing twice a week doesn't mean-

1. You could get a bad test
2. You contracted the virus Thursday night, Friday morning, etc.

Wearing a mask means wearing a mask, that's it. As others have mentioned she could have just owned up to it; but she didn't.

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3811 on: September 10, 2020, 07:28:03 PM »
Isn't the bigger risk that the virus is transmitted to/between teachers, who may be in more vulnerable age groups/states of health?

And taken home to everyone.

I understand that you're very concerned about Covid, and that's good. I'm assuming you don't have kids, though, because they are already (and have been for months) out at playgrounds and in each other's homes and such, all over the US. The horse is long out of the barn on kids for all but the most wealthy/paranoid/antisocial families who are still quarantining.

Adults, especially teachers, should be smart about it. We sent my elderly MIL to live elsewhere this school year. But the cost of not opening schools is far out of proportion to the risk at this point.

-W

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3812 on: September 10, 2020, 08:02:24 PM »
Isn't the bigger risk that the virus is transmitted to/between teachers, who may be in more vulnerable age groups/states of health?

I mean there is certainly some risk that it could be transferred from student to teacher and yes they would be at a higher risk being older. Still hard to tell since so many schools have been closed but there has been very very little evidence of student to teacher transfer.

As far as between teachers from what I've heard from friends teaching private school it sounds like Teachers are wearing mask at all times but especially in hallways, to bathrooms etc. Eating lunch in their rooms with staff lounges closed, staff meetings all virtual, etc. so pretty minimal adult to adult contact.

----------

Also "essential" workers have been taking risk the whole time. I'm in construction sharing space with multiple contractors, homeowners, inspectors, I use a port a john for a bathroom shared by 50+ men for god sakes. My neighbor is a UPS driver and he's been working 60-70 hours a week delivering to hundreds of homes/business a week and spending 2-3 hours a day in a packed warehouse full of people with little ventilation. My cousin is an EMT running tons of calls from one of MD's corona hotspots, another friend is a mechanic working in a shop with 20 other mechanics, etc. etc.

To me I'm feeling more and more like in person teaching (especially for elementary) should be considered "essential". Certainly more important then the decks and kitchens and stuff I build for people.

Isn't the bigger risk that the virus is transmitted to/between teachers, who may be in more vulnerable age groups/states of health?

And taken home to everyone.

I understand that you're very concerned about Covid, and that's good. I'm assuming you don't have kids, though, because they are already (and have been for months) out at playgrounds and in each other's homes and such, all over the US. The horse is long out of the barn on kids for all but the most wealthy/paranoid/antisocial families who are still quarantining.

Adults, especially teachers, should be smart about it. We sent my elderly MIL to live elsewhere this school year. But the cost of not opening schools is far out of proportion to the risk at this point.

-W

Anecdotal evidence of course but in our larger social group of friend/families I only know of 2 out of maybe 50-60 who are still quarinting pretty strict. One has a really high risk special needs child and the other I guess is just really nervous about it. Everyone else is doing quite a bit of socializing.

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3813 on: September 10, 2020, 08:20:34 PM »
I do find it fascinating that the same people I know who are up in arms about in-person school are totally fine with all sorts of other "essential" things (ie, housekeepers, construction of all sorts of nonessential things, liquor stores, hair care/nail salons, etc, etc, etc) being open with basic safety precautions.

Political polarization has made hypocrisy and hysteria sort of standard behavior all around, I guess. For every "BLM marxist Joe Biden is coming to take your guns" lunatic there's someone living in a giant house in suburbia with a We Believe sign that says "water is life" and "science is real" who is against letting poor kids go to school in person even though they're at hugely higher risk at home, while they water their giant lawn at 2pm.

I'm proud of our community for doing the right thing and opening the schools.

-W

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3814 on: September 10, 2020, 08:35:58 PM »
In all of Australia there's no one under 33 who's died from coronavirus. There was one guy in his 20s who died and the premier cited him as "look, it kills young people too" but now that's suspected of having been a drug overdose and it's been removed from the fatality stats. The papers don't even publish the aggregate fatality stats because only 4 people under 50 have died in the whole country and the median decade of death is the 80s.

A lot of the coronavirus stuff is just about optics. Right now out of our 1400 active cases over 1000 are concentrated in aged care and hospitals - we're not even talking about family members of same (who you would think would account for most of the remainder), just employees/patients - and yet our whole state remains in stage 3/4 lockdown essentially because Australians are so egalitarian that they'd rather lock the whole community down than simply say to healthcare workers and their families that they need to do a mandatory self-quarantine.

Meanwhile children are being kept to "learn from home" which does not work for anyone but the best educated parents and children. We will have dumb (or maybe I should say dumber) children as a result of this. No one seems to articulate this concern because again, it's invisible.

I'm kinda over it - the weather is nice, there are sufficient exemptions for me to do what I like, etc etc...but I do weep for the failure of critical thinking skills of a huge proportion of the population.

Couldn't agree more - It is about optics now. Imagine being a politician who fought tooth and nail for extreme lockdowns even after we knew that this was spreading much more slowly and killing far fewer than the initial worst projections. There is no way to dig yourself out of that - you need to double down.

That's why the goalposts keep moving in such an infuriating way:

First it was "flatten the curve so we don't overwhelm the hospitals" (totally reasonable). Then it was "well we need to minimize deaths" (still with you, but we need to weigh mortality against economic collapse). Then it became "we need to minimize hospitalizations" (well, we already stopped them from being overwhelmed, so we shouldn't be worried if there is capacity). Finally we crossed the threshold into "we need to minimize cases, regardless of how mortality is trending" (which is just bad policy).

It's like everyone collectively forgot what the original goal was, and our leaders keep inventing new ones just to justify past actions and save face. Why not just adapt to the new information and trends?

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3815 on: September 10, 2020, 09:11:08 PM »
It's because a positive (by positive I don't mean "good", but "verifiable") outcome can be splashed on the papers, but a negative one can't.

So when you look at the daily deaths from coronavirus - people in their 80s, 90s and 100s - you can do a newspaper write up about their lives, etc.

But when you look at the total toll of a $110 billion dollar hit to the Melbourne economy from the lockdowns[1], or the healthcare problems that will eventuate due to fewer people seeking emergency care [2], there is no way to do a newspaper article about something that didn't happen, other than in abstract statistical terms. You can't find someone who would have gone to the emergency department to treat a preventable disease, but didn't.

And politicians care about real life examples, not abstract statistics. That's why Republicans find small business owners getting screwed over by higher taxes and Democrats find some black single mother getting screwed over by some invidious neoliberal policy.

Anyway, going back to the lockdown - when I bring up my concerns that it's just stage management, people object, "Oh, so you're against lockdown at all?! You want people to die?" No, I'm against a wholesale lockdown and things like suburbs and entire regions with nil active cases being locked down for the sake of community unity. I'm against things like sole traders working alone still being unable to access their premises for which they pay rent, for the sake of community unity. I'm against the government's decision to no longer publish details of known family transmission hotspots (the NSW government does this, the VIC govt does not any more) presumably because it doesn't want to marginalise the poor communities in which the hotspots lie.

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[1] https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/inner-melbourne-economy-tipped-to-suffer-110b-hit-over-five-years-20200909-p55tt9.html
[2] https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victoria-records-43-new-covid-19-cases-nine-deaths-20200911-p55ul1.html

« Last Edit: September 10, 2020, 09:15:18 PM by Bloop Bloop »

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3816 on: September 10, 2020, 09:36:47 PM »
@Bloop Bloop - well, there may be a way to observe the kind of consequences you are talking about, at least those that are potentially resulting in increased mortality. See for example here: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-excess-deaths-in-england-and-wales-higher-than-five-year-average-for-third-week-running-12066427

Now that we are doing such an excellent job counting every possible COVID death, it's easy by process of elimination to count the non-COVID deaths in any given country. If the non-COVID death rate is still above the running average for mortality, it seems to indicate that people are indeed dying because they didn't seek treatment for other conditions, or their care was delayed due to lockdowns or delays in in the healthcare system. Not to be morbid, but I also have to assume some of those deaths are suicides or drug/alcohol related premature deaths that were in part brought on by the stress and fear that is permeating society this year.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3817 on: September 11, 2020, 04:11:15 AM »
@Bloop Bloop - well, there may be a way to observe the kind of consequences you are talking about, at least those that are potentially resulting in increased mortality. See for example here: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-excess-deaths-in-england-and-wales-higher-than-five-year-average-for-third-week-running-12066427

Now that we are doing such an excellent job counting every possible COVID death, it's easy by process of elimination to count the non-COVID deaths in any given country. If the non-COVID death rate is still above the running average for mortality, it seems to indicate that people are indeed dying because they didn't seek treatment for other conditions, or their care was delayed due to lockdowns or delays in in the healthcare system. Not to be morbid, but I also have to assume some of those deaths are suicides or drug/alcohol related premature deaths that were in part brought on by the stress and fear that is permeating society this year.
Are you sure we are counting every COVID death?  Covid can make blood sticky, which can lead to strokes and heart attacks.  If someone doesn't have the 3 named symptoms (a very significant proportion of those infected) they can't get a test but might still end up dying of a heart attack or stroke and not be counted as a Covid death.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3818 on: September 11, 2020, 04:28:55 AM »
A 28-year-old 3rd grade teacher died of COVID-19 in South Carolina this past week. She was diagnosed on a Friday and dead by Monday.

I'm in NC & happy our county made a smart decision to move classes online for the health and welfare of the staff and families; my kids are learning quite well via an online public school.

Meanwhile, my state still seems to have 1000+ new cases of this virus diagnosed per day. Let's not pretend everything is okay now. Several of my son's friends and at least one of my daughter's friends have tested positive for the virus this past month, and some of them have gotten extremely sick! Teenage boys are telling each other, via discord, "trust me, bro, I'm super sick: you don't want to get this!"

All three of our largest public universities have had to send the students back home because the spread of the virus was rampant in the first two weeks of classes, and that was a highly predictable outcome. University leadership plans were delusional at those schools, and they certainly didn't have procedures in place to ensure the safety and welfare of their student bodies.

If people in the USA could handle wearing facemasks properly and social distancing, then we could be like South Korea and never have shut down. All kids would be going to school buildings today. But the USA has a significant portion of the population who are ignorant and proud of it . . . so here we are.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2020, 05:16:42 AM by Zamboni »

Eowynd

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3819 on: September 11, 2020, 04:34:14 AM »
A 28-year-old 3rd grade teacher died of COVID-19 in South Carolina this past week. She was diagnosed on a Friday and dead by Monday.


Did she contract covid-19 in the classroom?  Or were they doing virtual learning and she got the virus somewhere else and just so happened to be a teacher by profession?  The news articles that I've read were entirely unclear on this point.

Zamboni

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3820 on: September 11, 2020, 05:15:43 AM »
At this point community spread is so prevalent in SC that who knows where she got it?

She did attend a week of "in person training" at the school and then she was diagnosed about a week later. Maybe she got it from another teacher during their training sessions, or maybe she got it at the grocery store, who knows? I don't think she taught students in person, but the point is that the teachers will be highly exposed to the virus and are at thus at very high risk when schools in areas with community spread move to in person classes. Pretending they are not is just burying your head in the sand.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2020, 05:17:30 AM by Zamboni »

former player

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3821 on: September 11, 2020, 05:51:49 AM »
At this point community spread is so prevalent in SC that who knows where she got it?

She did attend a week of "in person training" at the school and then she was diagnosed about a week later. Maybe she got it from another teacher during their training sessions, or maybe she got it at the grocery store, who knows? I don't think she taught students in person, but the point is that the teachers will be highly exposed to the virus and are at thus at very high risk when schools in areas with community spread move to in person classes. Pretending they are not is just burying your head in the sand.
The other thing to remember about teachers is just how many of them there are in the USA: 3.3 million.  So if all teachers go back to school you are adding 3.3 million people to the risk pool for covid.  That is very significant just by itself, let alone all the contacts they have.  Plus, 8% of public school teachers are in a higher risk group by being over 60: that's a quarter of a million teachers.  Add to that teachers under 60 who have other risk factors such as being immumosuppressed.

Also remember: every teacher that dies or is disabled by covid because schools go back this year is a teacher not available to teach children next year, and the year after that, and the year after that.

So both the scale of the issue, and the potential consequences of things going wrong, are enormous.

https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=28

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3822 on: September 11, 2020, 05:56:05 AM »
A 28-year-old 3rd grade teacher died of COVID-19 in South Carolina this past week. She was diagnosed on a Friday and dead by Monday.

I'm in NC & happy our county made a smart decision to move classes online for the health and welfare of the staff and families; my kids are learning quite well via an online public school.

Meanwhile, my state still seems to have 1000+ new cases of this virus diagnosed per day. Let's not pretend everything is okay now. Several of my son's friends and at least one of my daughter's friends have tested positive for the virus this past month, and some of them have gotten extremely sick! Teenage boys are telling each other, via discord, "trust me, bro, I'm super sick: you don't want to get this!"

All three of our largest public universities have had to send the students back home because the spread of the virus was rampant in the first two weeks of classes, and that was a highly predictable outcome. University leadership plans were delusional at those schools, and they certainly didn't have procedures in place to ensure the safety and welfare of their student bodies.

If people in the USA could handle wearing facemasks properly and social distancing, then we could be like South Korea and never have shut down. All kids would be going to school buildings today. But the USA has a significant portion of the population who are ignorant and proud of it . . . so here we are.

You could be like Canada and have a few100 cases per province/ state.  We're wearing masks and limiting gatherings and observing psocial distancing.   And schools are opening, under various models, we'll see how that goes.

Health and education are both provincial/territorial areas of responsibility, so we have 13 sets of procedures.  Some are doing better than others.

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bigblock440

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3824 on: September 11, 2020, 06:32:17 AM »
Here is another way of looking at it, at a population level (not infection rate, since the denominator is total population and numerator is known cases):

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Mortality Rate by age per 100k population: Influenza, 2018-2019:

0-4 (poor babies!): 1.3
5-17: 0.4
18-49: 1.8
50-64: 9
65+: 48.7

Estimated Mortality Rate by Age per 100k population, COVID-19
0-4: 0.17
5-14: 0.07
15-45: 4.0
46-64: 37.6
65+: 265

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

If you look at the death rates from influenza or COVID-19, you can see that the latter is more deadly at a population level around age 15 (Table 1).

Is this a valid comparison considering we've had covid restrictions since the beginning of the covid data, and normally just let flu run rampant?

The restrictions don't make covid any less deadly once you catch it

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3825 on: September 11, 2020, 07:07:15 AM »
(Of course, this whole line of questioning also ignores the many, many reported cases of possibly permanent non-fatal damage that coronavirus does do people.)

Can the flu (or other viruses) also cause permanent non fatal damage as well?

Not trying to be facetious; just genuinely asking if anyone knows.

Just for example my Father has permanent lung damage from a bad case of Pneumonia he had in his 40's (65 now)

I found this study of H7N9 patient recovery that seems to indicate a small percentage of people who recover from the flu do have long term health problems from it (largely lung and breathing issues) - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-17497-6.  This is very different from the long term neurological symptoms reported by those infected by coronavirus.

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3826 on: September 11, 2020, 07:22:52 AM »
Yeah, the invisible kids not getting educated or help when they need it at school are hard to put up against "but here's a person who died!" arguments.

The fact that a teacher dying is newsworthy is IMO a good sign. That means it's really, really rare.

-W

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3827 on: September 11, 2020, 07:58:14 AM »
Yeah, the invisible kids not getting educated or help when they need it at school are hard to put up against "but here's a person who died!" arguments.

The fact that a teacher dying is newsworthy is IMO a good sign. That means it's really, really rare.

-W

Your premise is invalid. 

Since school has been out for months, only recently started again in some places, teachers were at no more risk than anyone else.  Now that they are back in the classroom we will start to see if they are at added risk.

I know that teaching biology labs put me in close contact with students.  I am really glad to be retired.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3828 on: September 11, 2020, 08:05:09 AM »
Here is another way of looking at it, at a population level (not infection rate, since the denominator is total population and numerator is known cases):

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Mortality Rate by age per 100k population: Influenza, 2018-2019:

0-4 (poor babies!): 1.3
5-17: 0.4
18-49: 1.8
50-64: 9
65+: 48.7

Estimated Mortality Rate by Age per 100k population, COVID-19
0-4: 0.17
5-14: 0.07
15-45: 4.0
46-64: 37.6
65+: 265

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

If you look at the death rates from influenza or COVID-19, you can see that the latter is more deadly at a population level around age 15 (Table 1).

Is this a valid comparison considering we've had covid restrictions since the beginning of the covid data, and normally just let flu run rampant?

The restrictions don't make covid any less deadly once you catch it

But they make it significantly less likely to catch it in the first place, and this comparison isn't using "total infections" to calculate mortality, it's using total population.  Social restrictions results in less total infections which ultimately leads to less deaths.

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3829 on: September 11, 2020, 08:05:28 AM »
Indeed we will. We have almost a month here so far, with zero problems. Hoping that continues to be the case.

Most of our teachers are local members of the community and a ton of them are parents, who I see at soccer games and the park and stuff regularly. So they've been exposed all summer, really, just like the rest of us who have kids.

-W

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3830 on: September 11, 2020, 08:10:08 AM »
A 28-year-old 3rd grade teacher died of COVID-19 in South Carolina this past week. She was diagnosed on a Friday and dead by Monday.


Did she contract covid-19 in the classroom?  Or were they doing virtual learning and she got the virus somewhere else and just so happened to be a teacher by profession?  The news articles that I've read were entirely unclear on this point.

I'm unsure how that's relevant to the fact that she would be in close contact with dozens of other teachers and hundreds of students if the schools were open.  I don't think anyone is arguing that covid is going to spontaneously be recreated in a school environment, it's that it's going to be spread within the environment with the initial infection obviously coming from outside the school.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3831 on: September 11, 2020, 08:18:03 AM »
Indeed we will. We have almost a month here so far, with zero problems. Hoping that continues to be the case.

Most of our teachers are local members of the community and a ton of them are parents, who I see at soccer games and the park and stuff regularly. So they've been exposed all summer, really, just like the rest of us who have kids.

-W

You seem to be painting it as a binary option, either you aren't exposed at all, or you are exposed.  I have a kid, and family, and family with kids.  We've been to playgrounds, we've socialized in small groups with family, and we've all been partially exposed to a bunch of people this entire time.  But there is a whole spectrum of exposure levels.  I'm not really understanding the logic that just because you've worked in an office with asbestos that you might as well dive into a swimming pool full of asbestos.

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3832 on: September 11, 2020, 08:22:13 AM »
https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid

CFR for 0-9 years is 0%, or close to it. For 10-18, it's in the ballpark of 0.1%. As far as we know so far.

CFR for influenza varies wildly from year to year, and cases aren't as carefully documented (many never encounter the healthcare system). But it's pretty commonly agreed, I think, that it's more dangerous for young kids than 0%. Last year 166 kids died of the flu in the US (https://www.aappublications.org/news/2020/04/10/fluupdate041020).

-W




waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3833 on: September 11, 2020, 08:23:52 AM »
Indeed we will. We have almost a month here so far, with zero problems. Hoping that continues to be the case.

Most of our teachers are local members of the community and a ton of them are parents, who I see at soccer games and the park and stuff regularly. So they've been exposed all summer, really, just like the rest of us who have kids.

-W

You seem to be painting it as a binary option, either you aren't exposed at all, or you are exposed.  I have a kid, and family, and family with kids.  We've been to playgrounds, we've socialized in small groups with family, and we've all been partially exposed to a bunch of people this entire time.  But there is a whole spectrum of exposure levels.  I'm not really understanding the logic that just because you've worked in an office with asbestos that you might as well dive into a swimming pool full of asbestos.

I think it's probably safer to be masked up, with everyone being careful, at a school, than randomly running around wrestling/playing soccer at the park. If the kids are going to pass it around, man, they already did it. Months ago.

Seriously, if you don't have kids... you don't know what's been going on. Everyone ran out of patience in May. Keeping schools closed at this point (at least here) is just a waste of everyone's time.

-W

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3834 on: September 11, 2020, 08:39:59 AM »
https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid

CFR for 0-9 years is 0%, or close to it. For 10-18, it's in the ballpark of 0.1%. As far as we know so far.

CFR for influenza varies wildly from year to year, and cases aren't as carefully documented (many never encounter the healthcare system). But it's pretty commonly agreed, I think, that it's more dangerous for young kids than 0%. Last year 166 kids died of the flu in the US (https://www.aappublications.org/news/2020/04/10/fluupdate041020).

-W

Can you provide the source you're using for the claim that CFR for 0-9 years is 0%?  Because the data I've been looking at shows that children 0-9 are exposed to the disease at radically lower numbers than the older groups - and thus show far fewer deaths.  I haven't seen a study that was able to use more than a couple hundred children in that age group to determine numbers.

Also, as has been mentioned several times, only looking at fatalities is an incomplete representation of the dangers of this disease.





Indeed we will. We have almost a month here so far, with zero problems. Hoping that continues to be the case.

Most of our teachers are local members of the community and a ton of them are parents, who I see at soccer games and the park and stuff regularly. So they've been exposed all summer, really, just like the rest of us who have kids.

-W

You seem to be painting it as a binary option, either you aren't exposed at all, or you are exposed.  I have a kid, and family, and family with kids.  We've been to playgrounds, we've socialized in small groups with family, and we've all been partially exposed to a bunch of people this entire time.  But there is a whole spectrum of exposure levels.  I'm not really understanding the logic that just because you've worked in an office with asbestos that you might as well dive into a swimming pool full of asbestos.

I think it's probably safer to be masked up, with everyone being careful, at a school, than randomly running around wrestling/playing soccer at the park. If the kids are going to pass it around, man, they already did it. Months ago.

Seriously, if you don't have kids... you don't know what's been going on. Everyone ran out of patience in May. Keeping schools closed at this point (at least here) is just a waste of everyone's time.

-W

An awful lot of us have continued to keep our children away from other kids for this whole pandemic as we were told to by health officials.  My son has certainly not been "randomly running around wrestling/playing soccer at the park", and I'm disappointed to hear that yours was doing this so often you believe it's perfectly acceptable.

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3835 on: September 11, 2020, 08:44:39 AM »
https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid

CFR for 0-9 years is 0%, or close to it. For 10-18, it's in the ballpark of 0.1%. As far as we know so far.

CFR for influenza varies wildly from year to year, and cases aren't as carefully documented (many never encounter the healthcare system). But it's pretty commonly agreed, I think, that it's more dangerous for young kids than 0%. Last year 166 kids died of the flu in the US (https://www.aappublications.org/news/2020/04/10/fluupdate041020).

-W

Can you provide the source you're using for the claim that CFR for 0-9 years is 0%?  Because the data I've been looking at shows that children 0-9 are exposed to the disease at radically lower numbers than the older groups - and thus show far fewer deaths.  I haven't seen a study that was able to use more than a couple hundred children in that age group to determine numbers.

Also, as has been mentioned several times, only looking at fatalities is an incomplete representation of the dangers of this disease.





Indeed we will. We have almost a month here so far, with zero problems. Hoping that continues to be the case.

Most of our teachers are local members of the community and a ton of them are parents, who I see at soccer games and the park and stuff regularly. So they've been exposed all summer, really, just like the rest of us who have kids.

-W

You seem to be painting it as a binary option, either you aren't exposed at all, or you are exposed.  I have a kid, and family, and family with kids.  We've been to playgrounds, we've socialized in small groups with family, and we've all been partially exposed to a bunch of people this entire time.  But there is a whole spectrum of exposure levels.  I'm not really understanding the logic that just because you've worked in an office with asbestos that you might as well dive into a swimming pool full of asbestos.

I think it's probably safer to be masked up, with everyone being careful, at a school, than randomly running around wrestling/playing soccer at the park. If the kids are going to pass it around, man, they already did it. Months ago.

Seriously, if you don't have kids... you don't know what's been going on. Everyone ran out of patience in May. Keeping schools closed at this point (at least here) is just a waste of everyone's time.

-W

An awful lot of us have continued to keep our children away from other kids for this whole pandemic as we were told to by health officials.  My son has certainly not been "randomly running around wrestling/playing soccer at the park", and I'm disappointed to hear that yours was doing this so often you believe it's perfectly acceptable.

I linked to the source. You have to scroll down a bit to find the graphic/numbers.

Our community has done just fine with kids doing basically their normal summer - and we were one of the early epicenters of the whole US epidemic! I'm sorry yours didn't get to.

Again, too, keeping kids out of school only means social distancing for wealthy people. For a significant number of kids in our community (and probably yours) the middle class ones just went to daycare of some kind, and the poor ones families just sent 20 kids to hang out together/with abuela in a 2 bedroom apartment. You tell me what's going to spread Covid more...

-W
« Last Edit: September 11, 2020, 08:47:24 AM by waltworks »

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3836 on: September 11, 2020, 09:12:13 AM »
I linked to the source. You have to scroll down a bit to find the graphic/numbers.

The source you linked contains a graphic, but no data.  The chart references this WHO study that was published in February of this year - https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf and this Chinese study also published in February http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51 that only examines 400 children in that age group - less than 1% of the total sample size.


Our community has done just fine with kids doing basically their normal summer - and we were one of the early epicenters of the whole US epidemic! I'm sorry yours didn't get to.

Again, too, keeping kids out of school only means social distancing for wealthy people. For a significant number of kids in our community (and probably yours) the middle class ones just went to daycare of some kind, and the poor ones families just sent 20 kids to hang out together/with abuela in a 2 bedroom apartment. You tell me what's going to spread Covid more...

-W

If many adults are too irresponsible to take proper precautions or follow the instructions of health care professionals, their children will contract and spread coronavirus.  On this we agree.  I certainly understand the motive to declare covid perfectly safe for children if you've ignored safety advice regarding your own kids.

We live in a low income area.  Most households are multi-generational in our neighbourhood so keeping the kids at home has actually been easier for them than middle class households as the grandparents have been doing the lion's share of the child care.  Daycares began to open up around here last month - but they were opening at 1/4 capacity and with mandatory mask wearing/social distancing.  Most daycares were unable to fill all the spots even at reduced capacity.  It may be going on, but I certainly haven't seen evidence of 20 kids hanging out together in a 2 bedroom apartment.

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3837 on: September 11, 2020, 09:18:26 AM »
We've had daycares running for something like 4-5 months now. No outbreaks.

Look, it just ended up not being a big deal for kids. There's no evidence whatsoever to say otherwise. We should be acting accordingly.

-W

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3838 on: September 11, 2020, 09:33:30 AM »
We've had daycares running for something like 4-5 months now. No outbreaks.

Look, it just ended up not being a big deal for kids. There's no evidence whatsoever to say otherwise. We should be acting accordingly.

-W

Infants and very young children especially have shown that they're susceptible to covid-19 and have regularly required hospitalization.  Person to person transmission from young children has been shown to be very real, and common as they often present as asymptomatic.

"we found that the proportion of severe and critical cases was 10.6%, 7.3%, 4.2%, 4.1%
and 3.0% for the age group of ˂1, 1-5, 6-10, 11-15 and >15 years, respectively."

https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/pediatrics/early/2020/03/16/peds.2020-0702.full.pdf


"Importantly, our data show that severe COVID-19 can occur both in young children and in adolescents, and that a significant proportion of those patients require ICU support, frequently including mechanical ventilation. A small study from Madrid also found that four (10%) of 41 children with SARS-CoV-2 infection required admission to ICU. In our cohort, being younger than 1 month, male sex, presence of lower respiratory tract infection signs or symptoms at presentation, and presence of a pre-existing medical condition were associated with increased likelihood of requiring ICU admission. Our results also show that the majority of children who are intubated due to respiratory failure require prolonged ventilation, often for 1 week or more. This contrasts with observations in children with RSV infection who, on average, only require mechanical ventilation for 57 days, but is not dissimilar to observations in children with influenza. This has important implications for service planning, as although the overall demand for ICU support might be lower in children than in adults, each patient is likely to occupy ICU space for an extended period of time. At this time of intense strain on health-care services worldwide, it is vital that adequate resources are allocated to paediatric services to sustain the provision of high-quality care for children."

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(20)30177-2/fulltext

fattest_foot

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3839 on: September 11, 2020, 10:28:18 AM »
We've already talked about this over in the kid forum, but to be blunt, if you don't experience in person school/aren't around elementary schools much, you need to understand some stuff:
-Lots of kids access the *majority* of their food at school (as in, 2 and sometimes 3 meals).
-Many kids do not have ANY responsible adult available to make sure they are doing their schoolwork during the day
-Tons of kids access mental health/counseling/family intervention services via school. Lots of them have shitty parents or shitty home lives or get beat up or worse by a relative or neighbor... and the first line of defense/only easily accessible resource for them is the staff at school.

School is probably the most essential possible service for a huge portion of our society. I'd rather not have the fire department, or something. Even if Covid was pretty darn dangerous for kids (and so far, it looks like it's really not) I'd probably support in person school for anyone who needs it, because it's just that important.

-W

To add to that, I'm worried we're going to have an entire generation of children with massive social disorders because of this. Having children who are 6-8 years old and only remember fearing other humans is going to be crippling.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3840 on: September 11, 2020, 10:34:33 AM »
A 28-year-old 3rd grade teacher died of COVID-19 in South Carolina this past week. She was diagnosed on a Friday and dead by Monday.


Did she contract covid-19 in the classroom?  Or were they doing virtual learning and she got the virus somewhere else and just so happened to be a teacher by profession?  The news articles that I've read were entirely unclear on this point.

I'm unsure how that's relevant to the fact that she would be in close contact with dozens of other teachers and hundreds of students if the schools were open.  I don't think anyone is arguing that covid is going to spontaneously be recreated in a school environment, it's that it's going to be spread within the environment with the initial infection obviously coming from outside the school.

It is relevant because people will use this article to say: "See, if we open schools then teachers are going to die from COVID-19!"

If this teacher wasn't doing in-person schooling when she got sick then it is misleading to use this news as evidence against opening schools.

former player

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3841 on: September 11, 2020, 10:45:46 AM »
A 28-year-old 3rd grade teacher died of COVID-19 in South Carolina this past week. She was diagnosed on a Friday and dead by Monday.


Did she contract covid-19 in the classroom?  Or were they doing virtual learning and she got the virus somewhere else and just so happened to be a teacher by profession?  The news articles that I've read were entirely unclear on this point.

I'm unsure how that's relevant to the fact that she would be in close contact with dozens of other teachers and hundreds of students if the schools were open.  I don't think anyone is arguing that covid is going to spontaneously be recreated in a school environment, it's that it's going to be spread within the environment with the initial infection obviously coming from outside the school.

It is relevant because people will use this article to say: "See, if we open schools then teachers are going to die from COVID-19!"

If this teacher wasn't doing in-person schooling when she got sick then it is misleading to use this news as evidence against opening schools.
It's almost like you think the only thing teachers ever have to do is be in a classroom in front of their pupils.

fattest_foot

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3842 on: September 11, 2020, 10:53:06 AM »
Yeah, the invisible kids not getting educated or help when they need it at school are hard to put up against "but here's a person who died!" arguments.

The fact that a teacher dying is newsworthy is IMO a good sign. That means it's really, really rare.

-W

Your premise is invalid. 

Since school has been out for months, only recently started again in some places, teachers were at no more risk than anyone else.  Now that they are back in the classroom we will start to see if they are at added risk.

I know that teaching biology labs put me in close contact with students.  I am really glad to be retired.

Invalid?

This is the problem with covid reporting. If we had a national news article in a normal year every single time a teacher died, would you feel the same? It likely happens every single day. As stated there are millions of teachers in the country.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3843 on: September 11, 2020, 11:10:23 AM »
Yeah, the invisible kids not getting educated or help when they need it at school are hard to put up against "but here's a person who died!" arguments.

The fact that a teacher dying is newsworthy is IMO a good sign. That means it's really, really rare.

-W

Your premise is invalid. 

Since school has been out for months, only recently started again in some places, teachers were at no more risk than anyone else.  Now that they are back in the classroom we will start to see if they are at added risk.

I know that teaching biology labs put me in close contact with students.  I am really glad to be retired.

Invalid?

This is the problem with covid reporting. If we had a national news article in a normal year every single time a teacher died, would you feel the same? It likely happens every single day. As stated there are millions of teachers in the country.

My point was that once school was out last spring, teachers became part of the general population.  "Teacher dies" is no more informative than for any other job.  It is not informative.  Now that teachers are back, interacting with students and staff, they are in a potentially high risk group.  If in a month teacher infections are above their local infection rates, that gives us information.  If they still are at background rates of infection, that gives us information.  If a teacher catches it outside of school and then spreads it inside the school (remember not everyone is symptomatic, but asymptomatic people can still shed the virus) that gives us information.  But right now?  Drawing conclusions from inadequate information is invalid.

Not saying we shouldn't open up schools.  Ontario is, with lots of concerns being expressed about the arrangements.  Our infection rates aren't high but they aren't super low either.  And cold weather is coming, which will certainly affect how much time we spend outside.  Older buildings may present ventilation issues.  There are a lot of variables whose effects we don't know.

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3844 on: September 11, 2020, 11:13:31 AM »
A 28-year-old 3rd grade teacher died of COVID-19 in South Carolina this past week. She was diagnosed on a Friday and dead by Monday.


Did she contract covid-19 in the classroom?  Or were they doing virtual learning and she got the virus somewhere else and just so happened to be a teacher by profession?  The news articles that I've read were entirely unclear on this point.

I'm unsure how that's relevant to the fact that she would be in close contact with dozens of other teachers and hundreds of students if the schools were open.  I don't think anyone is arguing that covid is going to spontaneously be recreated in a school environment, it's that it's going to be spread within the environment with the initial infection obviously coming from outside the school.

It is relevant because people will use this article to say: "See, if we open schools then teachers are going to die from COVID-19!"

If this teacher wasn't doing in-person schooling when she got sick then it is misleading to use this news as evidence against opening schools.
It's almost like you think the only thing teachers ever have to do is be in a classroom in front of their pupils.

In normal times sure they'd be around dozens of adults. Its called making adjustments for Covid like literally every other profession has done.

Wear masks; dont dawdle in the hallways and staff lounges; all meetings via zoom; etc.

Everyone from Drs to grocery checkers have adjusted to the "new normal" and done thier job.

I have no idea how this lady got Covid; and I'm sorry for her and her family just like the other victims of Covid.

But I think a headline of "teacher dies from covid first week of school" is misleading when its a virtual school and it doesnt appear she received it from teaching.

IF and thats a total unknown she got it from another co-worker there's no telling if they wore masks or not; mantained 6 feet etc.

----------

And to add on to what others are saying - back in April/May when noone was leaving the house of course schools should be closed. At this point it seems the cats out of the bag and almost everything but schools are back open.

I'm lucky that my wife is a teacher working from home and is managing to help both our kids with VS while she works. Almost every other family I know has thier kids in some cohort, daycare, neighborhood swap, etc. And as far as I can tell they dont wear mask or social distamce so school seems it would be not that much worse; if not safer.

In the Spring employers were lenient; now people have to actually work from home...not do VS with thier kids for 6 hours and answer emails for 10 minutes. I know multiple people who were going to lose thier jobs unless they found daytime kid care.

On top of that many of them were in canps all Summer. I would hope our county with state of the art buildings and thier 2.8 billion budget could come up with a plan as safe as the average Mom and Pop summer camp.

---------

All that being said. I'm ok with other states being Guinea pigs and I understand the Fall/winter is a HUGE unknown.

I just hope states/counties are watching/learning and trying to come up with plans to open in some capacity for second semester.

My honest guess is they'll just continue to say it cant be done and wash thier hands of it leaving the whole year virtual. Who knows for next year.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3845 on: September 11, 2020, 11:23:37 AM »
A 28-year-old 3rd grade teacher died of COVID-19 in South Carolina this past week. She was diagnosed on a Friday and dead by Monday.


Did she contract covid-19 in the classroom?  Or were they doing virtual learning and she got the virus somewhere else and just so happened to be a teacher by profession?  The news articles that I've read were entirely unclear on this point.

I'm unsure how that's relevant to the fact that she would be in close contact with dozens of other teachers and hundreds of students if the schools were open.  I don't think anyone is arguing that covid is going to spontaneously be recreated in a school environment, it's that it's going to be spread within the environment with the initial infection obviously coming from outside the school.

It is relevant because people will use this article to say: "See, if we open schools then teachers are going to die from COVID-19!"

If this teacher wasn't doing in-person schooling when she got sick then it is misleading to use this news as evidence against opening schools.

This logic is absolutely insane.  I'm sure a virus that was contracted outside of the school could spread through a dense population (ie a school) just as easily as if she had contracted it from inside the school.  That's the only possible way for an outbreak to start.  If anything I think her contracting the virus outside of school still makes the case that it's a bad idea to loosen restrictions further, because teachers are already getting sick and dying just being members of the general population, and opening schools only increases the potential contact points between everyone. 

It's like you have a giant paper school filled with tons of matches, and one of the matches bursts into flames and you are saying "oh it's fine to have all these matches commingling together inside this paper building because that one particular match caught fire outside of the building".  And then I point out that the source of the initial flame is irrelevant because the entire building is still highly flammable, and you just double down and reiterate that that match caught fire outside of the building. 

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3846 on: September 11, 2020, 11:32:02 AM »
I think it's probably impossible to convince anyone to change their mind about schools opening or not at this point. You can point out that kids aren't at any meaningful risk, that teachers can and should stay safe by doing boring basic stuff, and that lots of other industries where people have to be indoors together somehow have managed to figure out how to operate. It doesn't matter. People are just freaked out.

So it is what it is. We'll throw thousands of vulnerable kids under the proverbial bus thinking we're being safer that way, because people can't step outside their bubbles to see how normal people live.

-W

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3847 on: September 11, 2020, 01:43:48 PM »
Can you post a source on that?  Everything I've read indicates it's deadlier than the flu for all age groups. 


https://freopp.org/estimating-the-risk-of-death-from-covid-19-vs-influenza-or-pneumonia-by-age-630aea3ae5a9


Based on that analysis, what is striking is that those under the age of 25 are at significantly lower risk of death from COVID-19 than of the flu. Under our assumptions, for example, school-aged children between 5 and 14 have a 1 in 200,000 chance of dying of influenza, but a 1 in 1.5 million chance of dying of COVID-19.



« Last Edit: September 11, 2020, 01:46:24 PM by HBFIRE »

mm1970

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3848 on: September 11, 2020, 02:18:13 PM »
*snip*

We live in a low income area.  Most households are multi-generational in our neighbourhood so keeping the kids at home has actually been easier for them than middle class households as the grandparents have been doing the lion's share of the child care. Daycares began to open up around here last month - but they were opening at 1/4 capacity and with mandatory mask wearing/social distancing.  Most daycares were unable to fill all the spots even at reduced capacity.  It may be going on, but I certainly haven't seen evidence of 20 kids hanging out together in a 2 bedroom apartment.

I wanted to address this, specifically.  It matches the situation in my location also.

By and large, the majority of folks who are clamoring to get their children back in school are the rich white people.  These aren't just the people you see complaining on websites and facebook and at the school board meetings.  The district has given SEVERAL surveys, asking parents if we should reopen, and if so, how (full on, hybrid).

The majority of poor parents preferred distance learning.  The  majority of Latinx families preferred distance learning (there is a great deal of overlap in our case). 

The most recent survey just ended, and over half of all respondents said "no, do not reopen".  This is despite the fact that the response rate among the Latinx population is lower than the response rate of the white population.

My children attend schools where 75% and 95% of the students are poor.  My kids got free lunch for years because they just gave it to everyone (breakfast too).  Many of these students live with their grandparents or other families.  And some of the children are being raised by their grandparents. 

Perhaps the survey results are due to:
1. The families are worried about the health of grandparents and at risk family members
2. The families have someone who is able to be at home with the students
3. The district has continued to provide food to all of the students (breakfast and lunch are grab and go).  The daily class schedules are set around this.
4. The district has provided internet and devices to everyone.

That does not mean that these children won't fall behind over the school year.  Some of them will.  For this reason, our district has been working diligently to figure out how to reopen schools safely.

Recognize that what is safe is going to depend greatly on where you live - and I think that nuance is very much lost sometimes on these forums.  You simply cannot apply a "one size fits all" solution to every school or location.  We are in California, our positivity rate is around 8%.  We do not have enough widespread testing to safely open, and our case rate is still too high.  The town I grew up in is small, and rural.  My nieces are in high school, back at school - but with only 35 students per grade, total?  That's not all that difficult.  COVID is simply not that widespread there.

It's very widespread here, and many of our teachers are older or at risk.  That is the reality of our particular location.  And unlike other areas of the country - until recently, people have been compliant.  My children have not seen friends since March.  There are no playdates.  The parks are closed, with yellow caution tape around all of the playground equipment.  The beaches were closed for holidays.  Several families I know have "pods" (one or two other families that they hang out with).  Most camps were closed all summer.

I am only just now seeing the (rich, white) friends getting together to party with 10-15 other families, 30-40 other people, now that our cases are declining.  I only hope this doesn't come back to bite us.

Once our case rate gets to the "red" level (an average of 4-7 cases per day per 100k population), and stays there for 14 days, the schools can reopen.

Our district is taking it slow.  Once we have reached "red", they will prioritize the students most at risk.  For our district, that means homeless children, English learners (45% of our elementary district), disabled students, and children on free/reduced lunch.  If we are lucky, that could be as early as the end of the month.

Once we have reached the "orange" level (1-4 cases per day per 100k people), the district plans to reopen all schools with the hybrid model. (Cohorts on campus half the time).

Finally, "yellow" (<1).  Modified fully in person model (masks, cleaning, etc.).  This is actually really expensive due to busing requirements.  More than half the students at our particular elementary school take the bus.

Unfortunately right now, the expense in getting started in a district with 14,000 students is going to be with testing and contact tracing.  They are working on it.  The slow startup (focusing on the most needy students) is the smart way to do it.

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3849 on: September 11, 2020, 03:41:15 PM »
Yeah, the invisible kids not getting educated or help when they need it at school are hard to put up against "but here's a person who died!" arguments.

The fact that a teacher dying is newsworthy is IMO a good sign. That means it's really, really rare.

-W

Your premise is invalid. 

Since school has been out for months, only recently started again in some places, teachers were at no more risk than anyone else.  Now that they are back in the classroom we will start to see if they are at added risk.

I know that teaching biology labs put me in close contact with students.  I am really glad to be retired.

Invalid?

This is the problem with covid reporting. If we had a national news article in a normal year every single time a teacher died, would you feel the same? It likely happens every single day. As stated there are millions of teachers in the country.

My point was that once school was out last spring, teachers became part of the general population.  "Teacher dies" is no more informative than for any other job.  It is not informative.  Now that teachers are back, interacting with students and staff, they are in a potentially high risk group.  If in a month teacher infections are above their local infection rates, that gives us information.  If they still are at background rates of infection, that gives us information.  If a teacher catches it outside of school and then spreads it inside the school (remember not everyone is symptomatic, but asymptomatic people can still shed the virus) that gives us information.  But right now?  Drawing conclusions from inadequate information is invalid.

Not saying we shouldn't open up schools.  Ontario is, with lots of concerns being expressed about the arrangements.  Our infection rates aren't high but they aren't super low either.  And cold weather is coming, which will certainly affect how much time we spend outside.  Older buildings may present ventilation issues.  There are a lot of variables whose effects we don't know.

I have the impression most school boards dropped the ball on this.    They've known it was coming since March after all.    Instead of figuring out their budget and making decisions about the tradeoffs they spent much time complaining.    Any teachers here who can comment?