How long can we wait while flattening the curve?

[mathlete]

Glad this is being discussed. One of my biggest pet peeves over the past year has been the obsession with opening up and dealing with the consequences to reach herd immunity through infection without regard for the fact that medical morgue/burial resources aren't infinitely scalable. Never mind PPE and hospital beds. There is no endless font of doctors and nurses willing to pick up shifts or work around the clock.

[jehovasfitness23]

I would define it as "unable to treat patients who need treatment".


 
-W

in the grand scheme is was not a major problem except in city area hospitals. LA County was recently hit with this hard. The amount of people waiting outside of a hospital in an ambulance for hours waiting for beds was overwhelming.

again, largely not an issue but it did happen throughout the country in select areas

[jehovasfitness23]

Well, if even your most educated and intelligent citizens are too dumb to be responsible, then yeah, c'est la vie. I tend to be a bit cynical about that myself and Covid hasn't changed my mind, that's for sure. For every "it's just the flu" MAGA idiot there's a corresponding I-Believe sign person chatting with 5 friends in the cramped entrance to the yoga studio.

There were places that had to shuttle patients between hospitals for a few weeks but we at least didn't go the Italy route. So I'd say the curve flattening was a success overall.

-W

God, speak for yourself and your own area. My former workplace had mobile morgues parked outside last spring. My cousin is an ER nurse and my friend is a CRNA. This has been hell on them.

Most of my SO's family are in healthcare. Her brother and sister-in-law in Florida are a respiratory therapist and ER nurse, respectively. Besides the physical and mental toll on them, this has, perhaps irreparably, damaged their relationship with their community. Walking out of an overnight 12 hour shift on the COVID floor to see people partying on the beach with no social distancing or masking made him angry in a way he hasn't been able to get over. They are now trying to decide if they'll stay in healthcare. He's the most caring person I know, and he will be a loss to profession if he does leave. Sadly, I think there will be a lot of those losses.

I can't imagine the level of anger that would invoke in me. Part of me thinks after a year so many in the profession have gotten numb to it all, as a coping mechanism.

[jehovasfitness23]

My sister reported that she was in line at a store today, and the woman in front of her pulled her mask OFF so she could sneeze without covering her face.

wow... I've had to sneeze at work in another room from people and in no way did I want to sneeze into my mask (yuck), but I couldn't imagine pulling it down and letting potential particles get sucked into the HVAC to recirculate

[deborah]

I guess there are several ways to look at flattening the curve. At first, governments were worried about hospitals being overwhelmed. Later, they were worried about elderly care homes being overwhelmed. I guess that in Australia, we’ve progressed to stopping any cases.

If every country had tried to stop the cases from the beginning, we wouldn’t have variants. We wouldn’t have to live with this for the rest of our lives, being vaccinated... and we’d all have a much better economic outcome. We could all have done what New Zealand did, have one lockdown for four weeks, and then lived our lives again, with no new cases coming from other places. The tourist industry and airlines and entertainment industry would be in reasonable shape. Our health care workers wouldn’t be burnt out.

[scottish]

I guess there are several ways to look at flattening the curve. At first, governments were worried about hospitals being overwhelmed. Later, they were worried about elderly care homes being overwhelmed. I guess that in Australia, we’ve progressed to stopping any cases.

If every country had tried to stop the cases from the beginning, we wouldn’t have variants. We wouldn’t have to live with this for the rest of our lives, being vaccinated... and we’d all have a much better economic outcome. We could all have done what New Zealand did, have one lockdown for four weeks, and then lived our lives again, with no new cases coming from other places. The tourist industry and airlines and entertainment industry would be in reasonable shape. Our health care workers wouldn’t be burnt out.

Let me fix that for you:

If every country had tried to stop the succeeded in stopping cases from the beginning

That's a pretty tall order though.     Something that works well for a wealthy island nation of 5 million might not work at all in a poor Asian country of 1 billion.

[Wolfpack Mustachian]

I guess there are several ways to look at flattening the curve. At first, governments were worried about hospitals being overwhelmed. Later, they were worried about elderly care homes being overwhelmed. I guess that in Australia, we’ve progressed to stopping any cases.

If every country had tried to stop the cases from the beginning, we wouldn’t have variants. We wouldn’t have to live with this for the rest of our lives, being vaccinated... and we’d all have a much better economic outcome. We could all have done what New Zealand did, have one lockdown for four weeks, and then lived our lives again, with no new cases coming from other places. The tourist industry and airlines and entertainment industry would be in reasonable shape. Our health care workers wouldn’t be burnt out.

The US and other countries could have done a great deal better than they did, but this is a very bold statement to make.

[Longwaytogo]

I guess there are several ways to look at flattening the curve. At first, governments were worried about hospitals being overwhelmed. Later, they were worried about elderly care homes being overwhelmed. I guess that in Australia, we’ve progressed to stopping any cases.

If every country had tried to stop the cases from the beginning, we wouldn’t have variants. We wouldn’t have to live with this for the rest of our lives, being vaccinated... and we’d all have a much better economic outcome. We could all have done what New Zealand did, have one lockdown for four weeks, and then lived our lives again, with no new cases coming from other places. The tourist industry and airlines and entertainment industry would be in reasonable shape. Our health care workers wouldn’t be burnt out.

Let me fix that for you:

If every country had tried to stop the succeeded in stopping cases from the beginning

That's a pretty tall order though.     Something that works well for a wealthy island nation of 5 million might not work at all in a poor Asian country of 1 billion.

Thank you for that correction. Certainly the US and many other countries failed at stopping cases....but to imply we didnt try is pretty insulting :(


By the time the US even figured out it was happening New York city alone was having more cases per DAY then New Zealand has had the whole last year. The comparisons are ridiculous and beyond wearing thin at this point.

I'm happy for Australia and New Zealand and what they accomplished but they were defintley the exception more so then the rule.

[middo]

I guess there are several ways to look at flattening the curve. At first, governments were worried about hospitals being overwhelmed. Later, they were worried about elderly care homes being overwhelmed. I guess that in Australia, we’ve progressed to stopping any cases.

If every country had tried to stop the cases from the beginning, we wouldn’t have variants. We wouldn’t have to live with this for the rest of our lives, being vaccinated... and we’d all have a much better economic outcome. We could all have done what New Zealand did, have one lockdown for four weeks, and then lived our lives again, with no new cases coming from other places. The tourist industry and airlines and entertainment industry would be in reasonable shape. Our health care workers wouldn’t be burnt out.

The US and other countries could have done a great deal better than they did, but this is a very bold statement to make.

But it was done with the first SARS-Covid variant, back in 2003.  This is more dangerous because it is airborne, but then that means it would be even more important to wipe it out.

But you know, don't criticise America or Europe because they did so well against covid.

[middo]

I guess there are several ways to look at flattening the curve. At first, governments were worried about hospitals being overwhelmed. Later, they were worried about elderly care homes being overwhelmed. I guess that in Australia, we’ve progressed to stopping any cases.

If every country had tried to stop the cases from the beginning, we wouldn’t have variants. We wouldn’t have to live with this for the rest of our lives, being vaccinated... and we’d all have a much better economic outcome. We could all have done what New Zealand did, have one lockdown for four weeks, and then lived our lives again, with no new cases coming from other places. The tourist industry and airlines and entertainment industry would be in reasonable shape. Our health care workers wouldn’t be burnt out.

Let me fix that for you:

If every country had tried to stop the succeeded in stopping cases from the beginning

That's a pretty tall order though.     Something that works well for a wealthy island nation of 5 million might not work at all in a poor Asian country of 1 billion.

Thank you for that correction. Certainly the US and many other countries failed at stopping cases....but to imply we didnt try is pretty insulting :(


By the time the US even figured out it was happening New York city alone was having more cases per DAY then New Zealand has had the whole last year. The comparisons are ridiculous and beyond wearing thin at this point.

I'm happy for Australia and New Zealand and what they accomplished but they were defintley the exception more so then the rule.

Australia and NZ are not so much of the exception as you would believe.  Many Asian democracies have done a world better than Europe or the US.  Until you own your failures, you won't advance on from them.

[waltworks]

Well, we (in the US) obviously need some kind of NHS-like national health system. Without that you get hundreds of different groups trying to figure out what to do independently. So I'd lay most of the blame on the awful health care we have here. Trump did his part to make things even worse, of course, by managing to not even take things seriously/turn basic personal hygiene and internal use of cleaning products into controversies.

But as much as I like to blame Trump for things, the bottom line is that the US just has a terrible way of providing health care that combines all the worst attributes of a fully socialized system and a fully private system. It's depressing that the main national conversation we're having as Covid (hopefully) winds down isn't about immediately implementing some kind of NHS.

-W

[Longwaytogo]

I guess there are several ways to look at flattening the curve. At first, governments were worried about hospitals being overwhelmed. Later, they were worried about elderly care homes being overwhelmed. I guess that in Australia, we’ve progressed to stopping any cases.

If every country had tried to stop the cases from the beginning, we wouldn’t have variants. We wouldn’t have to live with this for the rest of our lives, being vaccinated... and we’d all have a much better economic outcome. We could all have done what New Zealand did, have one lockdown for four weeks, and then lived our lives again, with no new cases coming from other places. The tourist industry and airlines and entertainment industry would be in reasonable shape. Our health care workers wouldn’t be burnt out.

Let me fix that for you:

If every country had tried to stop the succeeded in stopping cases from the beginning

That's a pretty tall order though.     Something that works well for a wealthy island nation of 5 million might not work at all in a poor Asian country of 1 billion.

Thank you for that correction. Certainly the US and many other countries failed at stopping cases....but to imply we didnt try is pretty insulting :(


By the time the US even figured out it was happening New York city alone was having more cases per DAY then New Zealand has had the whole last year. The comparisons are ridiculous and beyond wearing thin at this point.

I'm happy for Australia and New Zealand and what they accomplished but they were defintley the exception more so then the rule.

Australia and NZ are not so much of the exception as you would believe.  Many Asian democracies have done a world better than Europe or the US.  Until you own your failures, you won't advance on from them.

Oh I'll own that we failed; but not that we didnt try.

High school friend of mine committed suicide on my 40th birthday after thier business failed during the 6th month of lockdowns and they couldn't recieve any help or unemployment.

So again; I'll say in my personal opinion I've heard enough of the Australians and Kiwis patting themselves on the back.

You weren't here; you can't know what its been like for us. I understand we could of done better; we didnt. Believe me I wish we did. But to say we didn't try is Bullshit.

[deborah]

I didn’t mean it the way it was taken. No patting on the back. The discussion was about flattening the curve. I think it’s important to work out what should be done next time. It will probably be within a decade.

We certainly didn’t have the four week lockdown that New Zealand decided upon. Our (Australian) officials thought they were crazy to do it. Our officials were only advising us to flatten the curve. Yet, the four week lockdown saved New Zealand from what everyone else, including us, have gone through. We went through several lockdowns before we started to get it under control, and suddenly we were in a similar place to New Zealand, but with ten times the deaths per million. Even though, when we reached that place we were still only trying to flatten the curve. If we’d done what they did, we’d have had a lot less deaths ourselves.

[middo]

I didn’t mean it the way it was taken. No patting on the back. The discussion was about flattening the curve. I think it’s important to work out what should be done next time. It will probably be within a decade.

We certainly didn’t have the four week lockdown that New Zealand decided upon. Our (Australian) officials thought they were crazy to do it. Our officials were only advising us to flatten the curve. Yet, the four week lockdown saved New Zealand from what everyone else, including us, have gone through. We went through several lockdowns before we started to get it under control, and suddenly we were in a similar place to New Zealand, but with ten times the deaths per million. Even though, when we reached that place we were still only trying to flatten the curve. If we’d done what they did, we’d have had a lot less deaths ourselves.

Yes.  And it was largely due to our state governments and their  chief health officers looking at NZ, realising our mistakes, owning it and doing better.

US could have had more aid for small business and workers, more systematic health care for all, but haven't recognised these mistakes collectively, so are doomed to repeat them when the next pandemic comes.

Yes, I am bashing the US response, but it happened because of their system.  The failure is a function of their system.  But there is no stomach for a change to better universal health care and wider social services.

[Wolfpack Mustachian]

I guess there are several ways to look at flattening the curve. At first, governments were worried about hospitals being overwhelmed. Later, they were worried about elderly care homes being overwhelmed. I guess that in Australia, we’ve progressed to stopping any cases.

If every country had tried to stop the cases from the beginning, we wouldn’t have variants. We wouldn’t have to live with this for the rest of our lives, being vaccinated... and we’d all have a much better economic outcome. We could all have done what New Zealand did, have one lockdown for four weeks, and then lived our lives again, with no new cases coming from other places. The tourist industry and airlines and entertainment industry would be in reasonable shape. Our health care workers wouldn’t be burnt out.

The US and other countries could have done a great deal better than they did, but this is a very bold statement to make.

But it was done with the first SARS-Covid variant, back in 2003.  This is more dangerous because it is airborne, but then that means it would be even more important to wipe it out.

But you know, don't criticise America or Europe because they did so well against covid.

Far be it from me to critique the narrative you have in your head that every American thinks they did a great job on Covid, but what I actually said was "The US and other countries could have done a great deal better than they did, but this is a very bold statement to make." First part: the US and other countries could have done a great deal better. Last part, that was a very bold statement to make. I have seen no published work saying definitively that if America and other countries had done better that both there would be no variants and also that we would not need seasonal vaccines in perpetuity. This was not SARS. It would be hard, probably impossible prove the statement that was made, and I did not say it was incorrect. Just that it was bold.

[Paper Chaser]

We are now 3 weeks "Post Super Bowl", and the concerns about it being a super spreader event seem to have quieted. Florida, the host state and home of the winning team, has continued to see declines in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths during the time since the event.

The game was held with partial attendance, many of those in attendance were vaccinated, and social distancing/masking was involved. However, the host city was still expected to see a rise in cases due to various viewing parties and large celebrations after the home team won for the first time in history.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/08/sports/tampa-super-bowl-celebration.html




https://www.usatoday.com/videos/sports/nfl/super-bowl/2021/02/08/super-bowl-lv-fans-flood-streets-tampa-after-bucs-beat-chiefs/4433288001/

Much like the nationwide declines that we've seen in the last month, and regional declines that began even earlier, I think this indicates that something has changed with the virus, and/or our expectations for the virus and understanding of the scope of the pandemic seem to be too conservative. I remain optimistic for a mostly normal summer, but my region specifically is planning multiple large sporting events over the next 3 months (while loosening some restrictions) so it will be interesting to monitor.

[Michael in ABQ]

We are now 3 weeks "Post Super Bowl", and the concerns about it being a super spreader event seem to have quieted. Florida, the host state and home of the winning team, has continued to see declines in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths during the time since the event.

The game was held with partial attendance, many of those in attendance were vaccinated, and social distancing/masking was involved. However, the host city was still expected to see a rise in cases due to various viewing parties and large celebrations after the home team won for the first time in history.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/08/sports/tampa-super-bowl-celebration.html

https://www.usatoday.com/videos/sports/nfl/super-bowl/2021/02/08/super-bowl-lv-fans-flood-streets-tampa-after-bucs-beat-chiefs/4433288001/

Much like the nationwide declines that we've seen in the last month, and regional declines that began even earlier, I think this indicates that something has changed with the virus, and/or our expectations for the virus and understanding of the scope of the pandemic seem to be too conservative. I remain optimistic for a mostly normal summer, but my region specifically is planning multiple large sporting events over the next 3 months (while loosening some restrictions) so it will be interesting to monitor.

As I'm looking at a map of the US cases, the only hotspots are mostly rural counties were 10-20 cases becomes a meaningful per-capita number.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

Union County in the northeast corner of New Mexico is at 67 cases per 100,000. Or 2.7 cases per day. The adjacent county in Oklahoma is at 147 cases per day, with a daily average of 3.1 cases per day as it has a population of just over 2,000.

Miami and NY have the worst numbers out of larger cities at around 45 per 100,000. LA, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix are all much lower in the range of 15-25. A lot of cities are down in the single digits per 100,000.

I'm optimistic going forward as between vaccinations and previous infections, the R value seems to rapidly be dropping to or below 1.0. All those people who are or were super spreaders have probably caught it in the last year - and now a large chunk of the most vulnerable population has been vaccinated.

[former player]

Levels in the USA are back at summer peak levels, so it's better than the autumn but hardly great.

The stats on this site seem pretty good -

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases?country=~USA

[Seadog]

As a person who, also, has been religiously wearing a mask in all indoor public places, since March, 2020, I'm pretty skeptical about whether they have much/any effect on preventing transmission of covid. If anything, masks seem to give many people a false sense of security. Over and over again, I've observed people, completely unnecessarily, spend hours and hours in small, crowded, completely unventilated, spaces. When I've challenged them on the wisdom of having 2 hour meetings in tiny rooms, with no windows, the door closed, and no working ventilation, they tell me, "It's okay. We've all got masks on." wtf? I believe a mask helps protect me and others, in case one of us inadvertently sneezes or coughs, during the few minutes we have to go inside a store, or whatever, but if people think wearing a homemade cloth or paper mask is going to do anything, at all, to prevent the transmission of any virus between people who are, for example, riding in a car together with the windows closed, they're just fooling themselves, imho.

Are you trying to imply that it doesn't? I've started having relations with Thai prostitutes, and stopped wearing rubbers. But I figure as long as I have a mask on, I'm good to go and safe from AIDS.

I find the fact that there is such a tenuous, poor statistical correlation between masks, or even a lot of other preventative measures, and infection/death rates fascinating. Rates have been plummeting around the world since around the new year, regardless of the measures that were in place. That said I find it all the more amazing given the poor link as far as the data goes, that some people and police are willing the get into physical altercations, attacking people in the street, risking serious harm to both parties -  far in excess to the risk from catching or dying from COVID it would appear.

I listened to an interesting podcast the other day, and they were talking about how so many people wondered how what happened in Nazi Germany could have, and the guest replied, "well all you need to do is replace 'anti-masker' with 'jew' and there you go. There are people on various boards who wholeheartedly seem to support placing people not wearing masks in camps. Their theory was that it was people who have low self esteem, been crapped on, and they finally have a gov't sanctioned outlet to be a bully, so they jump on board with both feel.
(MOD EDIT: Hell, no.  Goodbye. Banned.)

[Seadog]

I guess it's possible masks made things *worse* - I've observed the same. At the store I try to give everyone 6 feet of space - which is a lot and takes conscious effort. Basically nobody else does this - they'll squeeze right next to each other to dig through the freezer case, stand 2 feet apart to chat, etc. Nobody pays attention to the one-way signs in the aisles.

But they're wearing masks, and sanitizing the handles of their shopping carts, so...

At this point it probably doesn't matter, and hindsight is 20/20. But if I were a betting man I'd bet masks had a net effect of zero. The sanitizing everything stuff probably also had no effect. Health theater. C'est la vie.

-W

I've noticed this too, and mentioned it to a friend about a month ago. People go straight up militant if your there without a mask, sometimes to the point of assault. But the 6' rule? Ah that's a nice to have and flexible. Two recommendations, both promoted as more or less equal, and for some people one becomes religion, while the other is ignored. My personal thought is it's because the mask is quantified, it's a 1 or a 0, but distance is a spectrum. 6'? Well 5'11" is probably good enough. And it probably is, but you need to draw the line somewhere.

While a mask is certainly quantifiable, the efficacy of said mask absolutely also exists on a spectrum. I find this extremely troubling. People seem to be far more concerned about whether you're following the rules, than if you're realistically reducing your transmission risk.

[partgypsy]

I read the responses to this thread, and I'm both agreeing that the US could have done more, and also wanting to defend what the US did right. there are a ton of people on the front lines, healthworkers, but also food processing, delivery people etc that kept working despite being in a pandemic. The US was overrun. Not nationally but there were areas that broke down. I know that because I work at the VA and our "forth mission" is to help in national (usually natural) disasters. The majority of this help was in helping testing for COVID (primarily nursing homes) to get a handle and isolate active cases. But also in some places (NY, MI) the VA also admitted civilians into the VA hospitals because the civilian hospitals were beyond capacity.

Our biggest achilles heel is that we love states rights. So many many things including health coverage, and dissemination, etc is done on a state level versus a national level. The VA being able to pivot and in addition to caring for veterans, also help with 4th mission, shows that there is a lot of benefit if we had a stronger nation-wide response to this pandemic, everything from identifying the problem, advertising the problem, having coordinated stay at home orders, and of course distribution of materials and treatments.  Individuals did amazing. But response from the top of government leadership was, lacking. And it cost lives.

PS I can give an example where masks DO reduce transmission (I know, a n of 1). But a family friend, actually 3 members of the family came over to play a game, and then one of them came over to tutor my youngest. They were a couple feet next to each other, indoors, both wearing masks for an hour. The tutor the following week feels sick. Even though she thinks its a cold I say lets cancel tutoring for this week. The tutor then tests positive for COVID. I find out, I test my kids, and -negative. I don't really know when the tutor was exposed. All I know is that we missed a bullet and having them both wear masks may have helped. I am primarily using cloth masks I bought from etsy that I like because they have 2 layers and a nose wire so they fit better. 

The deal I've seen with non mask wearers, is that in general they simply do not seem to give a fig about increasing themselves or other people's risk. It's not just that they are not wearing a mask. But that they are not wearing a mask inside, or not wearing it and walking close to people, or not wearing a mask where it is clearly stated mask enforcement is in place.  there are a number of times and places I don't wear a mask (i.e. outside, being away from other people); never been yelled at or called out. If someone is getting yelled at for not wearing a mask, 9/10 times I have a strong suspicion the person is being an asshole.

ps there are lots of epidemiologic studies that show mask wearing on a population level reduces R. You just have to look at many Asian countries (many which have returned to close to life as usual) to understand this is true.

[mm1970]

My sister reported that she was in line at a store today, and the woman in front of her pulled her mask OFF so she could sneeze without covering her face.

Ew.

If anyone is wondering...as someone who used to wear masks daily and also has allergies...the proper thing to do is:

1. Sneeze into your mask
2.  Leave the area, take off the mask, blow your nose
3.  Replace the mask with a new one.

[Abe]

It’s a bit concerning that the daily case and death numbers has stalled out again, at the same level as the July peak. Deaths from covid still account for 25% of all deaths in the US. I hope this isn’t a new steady state for the next few months.

This is happening, half a million buried and we still have grown adults whining about wearing a piece of cloth in front of their mouth? What did Churchill say about us?

[RWD]

Texas and Mississippi have removed their mask mandates... Meanwhile we're still waiting on vaccine eligibility even though my wife is required to teach in-person classes.

[Villanelle]

Texas and Mississippi have removed their mask mandates... Meanwhile we're still waiting on vaccine eligibility even though my wife is required to teach in-person classes.

If I was a teacher and had anything close to FU money, I would be using it right now.  Fuck that noise.  I you want to put me in a situation where I am essentially required to break all of the recommended guidelines and precautions, prioritize me for vaccination.  Or I don't come to work and you can find another willing Tribute. 

[Abe]

Same day news headline:
“Houston is first US city to record all 4 major strains of COVID”
“Governor Abott lifts mask mandate and plans to return state to ‘business as usual’”

I give up. Going to break out the N95 and my inhalers.

[GuitarStv]

Weird decision by Texas.  I can understand economic reasons to re-open many businesses (especially if transmission rates are dropping) but removing the mask mandate . . . I don't really understand the reasoning on that.

[RWD]

Texas and Mississippi have removed their mask mandates... Meanwhile we're still waiting on vaccine eligibility even though my wife is required to teach in-person classes.

If I was a teacher and had anything close to FU money, I would be using it right now.  Fuck that noise.  I you want to put me in a situation where I am essentially required to break all of the recommended guidelines and precautions, prioritize me for vaccination.  Or I don't come to work and you can find another willing Tribute.

She's been able to do a hybrid approach where she also teaches online. So in person teaching is something like 5 hours a week. But if her students start showing up to class unmasked I think (hope) she'll just refuse to teach in person entirely. I highly doubt they would fire her for that decision.

Edit: updated with exact number of hours

[jrhampt]

Aren't teachers supposed to be prioritized by now?  My brother in law in Minnesota has been eligible for a while now (although only recently was able to get vaccinated due to scarcity of vaccine and appointments), and CT just opened up to teachers and daycare workers as of March 1st.

[RWD]

Aren't teachers supposed to be prioritized by now?  My brother in law in Minnesota has been eligible for a while now (although only recently was able to get vaccinated due to scarcity of vaccine and appointments), and CT just opened up to teachers and daycare workers as of March 1st.

Yes, they are supposed to be. Mississippi has been delaying this and only just now opened it up for preschool/K-12 teachers. Which doesn't apply for my wife who is a college professor.

[Abe]

Weird decision by Texas.  I can understand economic reasons to re-open many businesses (especially if transmission rates are dropping) but removing the mask mandate . . . I don't really understand the reasoning on that.

But they’re itchy and it’s humid and they don’t work except for the data showing they work but that’s not the point, freedom!

Some kind of mind diarrhea like that, I suspect.

[Cranky]

Weird decision by Texas.  I can understand economic reasons to re-open many businesses (especially if transmission rates are dropping) but removing the mask mandate . . . I don't really understand the reasoning on that.

He’s tired of hearing about the electric grid and wants to change the subject.

[waltworks]

It'll certainly be an interesting real-world experiment...

I'd be somewhat impressed with Abbot if he was ready to own the consequences - ie, "if deaths go up over where they're at now, I'll resign."

But he'll just deflect blame somehow if that happens, I assume.

If it doesn't happen, I'll credit him for making the right call.

-W

[dandarc]

It'll certainly be an interesting real-world experiment...

I'd be somewhat impressed with Abbot if he was ready to own the consequences - ie, "if deaths go up over where they're at now, I'll resign."

But he'll just deflect blame somehow if that happens, I assume.

If it doesn't happen, I'll credit him for making the right call.

-W

So you're saying that you will be paying specific attention to Texas' excess death stats (as noted in the thread about Florida we need to be looking at all-cause excess deaths, particularly in red states) for the next 6-12 months? Come back in September or later let us all know what you found out.

[waltworks]

So you're saying that you will be paying specific attention to Texas' excess death stats (as noted in the thread about Florida we need to be looking at all-cause excess deaths, particularly in red states) for the next 6-12 months? Come back in September or later let us all know what you found out.

Correct. I (and many other folks) will let you know in a year. There will be a lot of epidemiology and statistics theses written about this specific case, I'd bet.

Full disclosure, I was a statistician in another life so setting aside the human tragedy, this is a fascinating test case.

-W

[Abe]

I don’t think it will be that clean data because most of the large cities, and big retail chains (at least in Houston), have released notices they’re basically ignoring Abbott’s changes and continuing to follow CDC guidelines. I suspect the data will be GIGO and we will get a slew of nonsense retrospective multivariate analyses one can bludgeon into saying whatever one wants.

[Travis]

Weird decision by Texas.  I can understand economic reasons to re-open many businesses (especially if transmission rates are dropping) but removing the mask mandate . . . I don't really understand the reasoning on that.

Not weird if you know Abbott. Same guy who thought the annual Jade Helm special operations exercise was Obama attempting to conquer the state, literally cheered and praised the Trump supporters who ran Biden's bus off the highway, has snubbed anything helpful regarding COVID, and in no way is taking responsibility for Texas' recent electrical problems.  My Texas acquaintances are calling him a hero for this move, chanting "my body my choice" completely unconcerned that their actions have consequences for other people.

[windytrail]

I don’t think it will be that clean data because most of the large cities, and big retail chains (at least in Houston), have released notices they’re basically ignoring Abbott’s changes and continuing to follow CDC guidelines. I suspect the data will be GIGO and we will get a slew of nonsense retrospective multivariate analyses one can bludgeon into saying whatever one wants.

For those of us who are interested in how government restrictions affect individual behavior, the data will show that. The presence of voluntary compliance in a community will not render the data meaningless.

For example, we can compare the future case rates in a state with more restrictions (i.e. California) to a state with no restrictions (Texas) to help determine whether the government restrictions affect the rate of new cases.

[Jouer]

I don’t think it will be that clean data because most of the large cities, and big retail chains (at least in Houston), have released notices they’re basically ignoring Abbott’s changes and continuing to follow CDC guidelines. I suspect the data will be GIGO and we will get a slew of nonsense retrospective multivariate analyses one can bludgeon into saying whatever one wants.

For those of us who are interested in how government restrictions affect individual behavior, the data will show that. The presence of voluntary compliance in a community will not render the data meaningless.

For example, we can compare the future case rates in a state with more restrictions (i.e. California) to a state with no restrictions (Texas) to help determine whether the government restrictions affect the rate of new cases.

Not without also having things like compliance rates or controlling for confounding effects you can't.

[beekayworld]

You have bars in the grocery stores where you live???  I'm finding this hard to picture.  And even harder to picture this during covid...

I haven't been to one in a while, but lots of Whole Foods have wine and beer bars inside.

[Bloop Bloop Reloaded]

It'll certainly be an interesting real-world experiment...

I'd be somewhat impressed with Abbot if he was ready to own the consequences - ie, "if deaths go up over where they're at now, I'll resign."

But he'll just deflect blame somehow if that happens, I assume.

If it doesn't happen, I'll credit him for making the right call.

-W

Why should he resign? Politicians and public health authorities get calls wrong all the time. If you take a 'median approach' then half the time you are going to be too conservative and half the time you will be too robust. It's only by taking an excessively cautious approach that you can always guarantee a 'good result' but that caution can cause its own problems both health and economic related.

It's like a police minister resigning because the road toll went up this year compared to last year. No one does that. We accept a certain level of risk.

[jehovasfitness23]

It'll certainly be an interesting real-world experiment...

I'd be somewhat impressed with Abbot if he was ready to own the consequences - ie, "if deaths go up over where they're at now, I'll resign."

But he'll just deflect blame somehow if that happens, I assume.

If it doesn't happen, I'll credit him for making the right call.

-W

Why should he resign? Politicians and public health authorities get calls wrong all the time. If you take a 'median approach' then half the time you are going to be too conservative and half the time you will be too robust. It's only by taking an excessively cautious approach that you can always guarantee a 'good result' but that caution can cause its own problems both health and economic related.

It's like a police minister resigning because the road toll went up this year compared to last year. No one does that. We accept a certain level of risk.

It's one thing to be wrong, it's another to purposely endanger the lives of others based upon the evidence. Should be a borderline felony.

[waltworks]

Why should he resign? Politicians and public health authorities get calls wrong all the time. If you take a 'median approach' then half the time you are going to be too conservative and half the time you will be too robust. It's only by taking an excessively cautious approach that you can always guarantee a 'good result' but that caution can cause its own problems both health and economic related.

It's like a police minister resigning because the road toll went up this year compared to last year. No one does that. We accept a certain level of risk.

Well, he's not splitting the difference between what various health dept folks or the CDC are telling him. He's going out on a limb and taking the most extreme position he can for what I assume are political reasons.

That's gambling with people's lives, when waiting just a few more weeks would have been pretty easy to do.

So yes, if there's another wave in TX in a couple weeks, he should resign.

-W

[OtherJen]

Why should he resign? Politicians and public health authorities get calls wrong all the time. If you take a 'median approach' then half the time you are going to be too conservative and half the time you will be too robust. It's only by taking an excessively cautious approach that you can always guarantee a 'good result' but that caution can cause its own problems both health and economic related.

It's like a police minister resigning because the road toll went up this year compared to last year. No one does that. We accept a certain level of risk.

Well, he's not splitting the difference between what various health dept folks or the CDC are telling him. He's going out on a limb and taking the most extreme position he can for what I assume are political reasons.

That's gambling with people's lives, when waiting just a few more weeks would have been pretty easy to do.

So yes, if there's another wave in TX in a couple weeks, he should resign.

-W

And he's blaming immigrants for COVID spread, in true Republican fashion:

The Biden Administration is recklessly releasing hundreds of illegal immigrants who have COVID into Texas communities.

The Biden Admin. must IMMEDIATELY end this callous act that exposes Texans & Americans to COVID.

Source: Abbott's verified Twitter account

[By the River]

I will continue to wear my mask if I go to Texas or Mississippi (or any of the other 14 states without masks mandates).  I assuming I'll do that until May/June depending on the numbers.  (Edit: I will also wear a mask whenever a store/business requires it.  Its their establishment and I'll comply with their policies).

[Shane]

It doesn't seem like such a big deal to me if far-away states like TX eliminate their mask mandates. I mean, what's the difference to me and my family if people in TX get vaccinated or get infected? Either way, they're going to be less likely to spread the virus in the future, and that's all I really care about. If people in TX stop wearing masks, and that means the death rate there ends up being marginally higher, how will that affect me? I'm not going to go there and visit, during the pandemic, but if the people who elected Governor Abbot are generally okay with lifting mask mandates and going back to normal, now, it seems like that should be their choice. If not, maybe they should start organizing to vote Abbott out of office at the next opportunity, or maybe start thinking about moving. If I were a resident of TX or had to go there for some reason, I'd probably have a different opinion.

[GuitarStv]

It doesn't seem like such a big deal to me if far-away states like TX eliminate their mask mandates. I mean, what's the difference to me and my family if people in TX get vaccinated or get infected? Either way, they're going to be less likely to spread the virus in the future, and that's all I really care about. If people in TX stop wearing masks, and that means the death rate there ends up being marginally higher, how will that affect me? I'm not going to go there and visit, during the pandemic, but if the people who elected Governor Abbot are generally okay with lifting mask mandates and going back to normal, now, it seems like that should be their choice. If not, maybe they should start organizing to vote Abbott out of office at the next opportunity, or maybe start thinking about moving. If I were a resident of TX or had to go there for some reason, I'd probably have a different opinion.

Well, there's the school of thought that human life beyond your own is important.

But there's also the selfish angle - viruses mutate through replication.  They more they transmit, the more they replicate.  Increased replication means increased chance of mutation, and we know that there's a possibility that a new variant could appear that will not be stopped by currently available vaccines.  It's not hard to imagine a scenario where someone travels from Texas to any other US state carrying with them a mutated virus that can make people sick.

There is also the political angle.  If some of the states do away with all restrictions early, they could get an economic leg up on the states that remain closed . . . and this would pressure the other states to re-open sooner than is safe for purely monetary reasons.

People really are in this together.

[jehovasfitness23]

It doesn't seem like such a big deal to me if far-away states like TX eliminate their mask mandates. I mean, what's the difference to me and my family if people in TX get vaccinated or get infected? Either way, they're going to be less likely to spread the virus in the future, and that's all I really care about. If people in TX stop wearing masks, and that means the death rate there ends up being marginally higher, how will that affect me? I'm not going to go there and visit, during the pandemic, but if the people who elected Governor Abbot are generally okay with lifting mask mandates and going back to normal, now, it seems like that should be their choice. If not, maybe they should start organizing to vote Abbott out of office at the next opportunity, or maybe start thinking about moving. If I were a resident of TX or had to go there for some reason, I'd probably have a different opinion.

Well, there's the school of thought that human life beyond your own is important.

But there's also the selfish angle - viruses mutate through replication.  They more they transmit, the more they replicate.  Increased replication means increased chance of mutation, and we know that there's a possibility that a new variant could appear that will not be stopped by currently available vaccines.  It's not hard to imagine a scenario where someone travels from Texas to any other US state carrying with them a mutated virus that can make people sick.

There is also the political angle.  If some of the states do away with all restrictions early, they could get an economic leg up on the states that remain closed . . . and this would pressure the other states to re-open sooner than is safe for purely monetary reasons.

People really are in this together.

agreed, TX may be far away, but people still travel and so do viruses along with them

[the_fixer]

It doesn't seem like such a big deal to me if far-away states like TX eliminate their mask mandates. I mean, what's the difference to me and my family if people in TX get vaccinated or get infected? Either way, they're going to be less likely to spread the virus in the future, and that's all I really care about. If people in TX stop wearing masks, and that means the death rate there ends up being marginally higher, how will that affect me? I'm not going to go there and visit, during the pandemic, but if the people who elected Governor Abbot are generally okay with lifting mask mandates and going back to normal, now, it seems like that should be their choice. If not, maybe they should start organizing to vote Abbott out of office at the next opportunity, or maybe start thinking about moving. If I were a resident of TX or had to go there for some reason, I'd probably have a different opinion.

Hmmm let’s see...

Texans (and others) like visiting Colorado to ski and vacation. Skiing In the winter / spring (hello spring break) then summer most of the camping sites are filled with Texas plates and in the fall we move into hunting season.

People travel and the virus travels with it.

Then like mentioned above the more it spreads the more it changes and the more people suffer.

https://www.westword.com/news/no-colorado-quarantine-for-possible-texas-super-spreaders-11914342


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[SunnyDays]

It doesn't seem like such a big deal to me if far-away states like TX eliminate their mask mandates. I mean, what's the difference to me and my family if people in TX get vaccinated or get infected? Either way, they're going to be less likely to spread the virus in the future, and that's all I really care about. If people in TX stop wearing masks, and that means the death rate there ends up being marginally higher, how will that affect me? I'm not going to go there and visit, during the pandemic, but if the people who elected Governor Abbot are generally okay with lifting mask mandates and going back to normal, now, it seems like that should be their choice. If not, maybe they should start organizing to vote Abbott out of office at the next opportunity, or maybe start thinking about moving. If I were a resident of TX or had to go there for some reason, I'd probably have a different opinion.

China is further away from you than Texas, and look what happened with that!