Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 248222 times)

kenmoremmm

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2550 on: June 22, 2020, 03:42:22 PM »
The hopelessness I'm beginning to feel stems from the fact that some assholes didn't fucking take things seriously early on, so it now looks like we'll be unable to get a handle on this thing.  These people have managed to help us squander our time so that now we have no choice but to start opening things that aren't safe to open.

If six weeks ago you were fucking around rather than doing what you should have done, with the sick intent of making the pandemic worse for others, make no mistake about it.  You, personally, are the problem.  You can take your schadenfreude glee and stuff it up your ass.

sorry, but i disagree with this.

this is a new virus to the WORLD. if you expect a worldwide adoption of a singular policy to confront this, then let me know where the address to fairyland is because i'd love to go. it's pretty clear that the virus had already spread nearly worldwide before anyone knew. there's just too much travel to ever think you can contain something like this. when you have essential workers, they will spread it, unless you have the whole world stockpiled to the brim with masks, sanitizer, etc. this is not reality.

so, you say, what about new zealand? well, yeah, good luck with locking your international borders for the next eternity because if there's no vaccine, then that's your only gameplan, otherwise the first person that passes through your border and has it will just start the spread anew. you gonna lock down your cities for 2 weeks every few months? you've already seen this with china where they had effectively contained it, after, what, 3-4 months of lockdown, and now there are cases in beijing so they're locking that down.

you can't go on like that.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2551 on: June 22, 2020, 06:54:49 PM »
This interview with the Norwegian Health Minister was good. She talks about the similarities and differences between Sweden's and Norway's approaches to covid. Interestingly, she wasn't willing to say that Sweden's higher death rate is, necessarily, because of their unique response to the pandemic. People like to portray it as if the Swedes were just recklessly stupid in the way they responded to covid, but the Norwegian health minister wasn't willing to go there.

In addition to their varied responses to coronavirus, there are other differences between Sweden and its neighbors, like, for example, that Sweden's population is around double that of its neighbors, and its capital city, Stockholm, has roughly twice the population of any of its neighbors' biggest cities, and the residents of Stockholm are more tightly packed, especially in districts with many recent immigrants. So, while there is a correlation between a somewhat less authoritarian response to covid and a higher death rate in Sweden, that doesn't necessarily mean that that is the (only) cause.

Minor detail, but she is head of The Public Health Institute (kind of like the CDC but not quite). The health minister is a male, btw (he even has a beard) ;)

Anyway, in the beginning the pandemic experts at said institute recommended "flattening the curve" like Sweden has done. But the politicians decided to hit the virus hard and so far has succeeded.

Her brother is the General Secretary of NATO, btw.
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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2552 on: June 22, 2020, 08:12:26 PM »

I just got back from getting groceries and decontaminating them.  I think about 25% of the people were not wearing masks - no sure what's wrong with these idiots.  I really have to be on my toes to steer clear of them and keep them at a distance.  It makes me consider switching to a good quality respirator and wearing goggles.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2553 on: June 22, 2020, 09:11:30 PM »
Here in Victoria we've had a "surge" (by which we're talking ~20 cases a day out of 5 million) of new infections, but most of them are being caused by close contact. Not rallies, not grocery stores, not even public transport. But instead, child-to-teacher transmission at schools, and transmission among family. It seems there have been a few clusters where despite a positive test, family gatherings continued and that led to multiple infections within the extended family.

Not very clever!

But I do think that the risk of transmission from incidental social contact is overplayed, and the risk of transmission from indoors, social gatherings is being under-emphasised. The biggest spread events have been dinner parties and weddings.

sui generis

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2554 on: June 22, 2020, 09:53:43 PM »

But I do think that the risk of transmission from incidental social contact is overplayed, and the risk of transmission from indoors, social gatherings is being under-emphasised. The biggest spread events have been dinner parties and weddings.

This seems right to me, too.  Where I live, it seems like there's a lot of shaming around people not wearing masks when they are in public outdoors spaces where people are only within 6 or even 30 feet of each other when briefly and quickly passing (i.e. the possibility of spread is, based on what we know, close to nil), but there are other places where people are sitting together indoors with no masks, within or barely at 6 feet of each other for extended periods of time? 

There needs to be some nuance to these rules and conversations!  I mean, it's not a ton of skin off my back to have my mask on in the former situations, even if we have no reason to believe it is at all necessary.  But in America, especially, not having this nuance and allowing this "freedom" undermines the legitimacy of the government authorities (making people more determined to disobey even the critical rules because they are just pissed off) and reduces overall compliance where it counts.  It would be helpful to not allow space for the conspiracy theorists to make any valid points.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2555 on: June 23, 2020, 02:01:58 AM »

Here in Victoria we've had a "surge" (by which we're talking ~20 cases a day out of 5 million) of new infections, but most of them are being caused by close contact. Not rallies, not grocery stores, not even public transport. But instead, child-to-teacher transmission at schools, and transmission among family. It seems there have been a few clusters where despite a positive test, family gatherings continued and that led to multiple infections within the extended family.

Many of those were caused by quarantine hotel security guards being rationed PPE and not trained in proper hygiene. Guards got infected, were asymptomatic so went home and infected their families, who were also asymptomatic and had a quite legal gathering with another family.


They were rationed PPE because the govt feared the healthcare system running out. Of course, if the security guys had plenty of PPE, then the healthcare system would need less... It reminds me of this survival show we've been watching, where a guy starts starving so he hoards his food... until he reaches BMI 17, with a blood pressure of 80/60, and is taken off the show.

"One hotel leaking out cases is maybe just bad luck, but two? This is not good,Ē he said. ďThis is a government run quarantine situation which is leaking out cases through security guards. It is interesting that Daniel Andrews focused on the people not behaving or sticking to quarantine, but actually there is just as much sorting out to do from the government side of how they are running their quarantine hotels."

https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/coronavirus-hotspots-and-the-family-clusters-driving-its-spread-20200622-p55504.html


As with the Ruby Princess, the northwest Tasmania cluster, the Cedar Meats cluster - or, for that matter, the governor of New York sending sick people into nursing homes - the government fucks up, and then the people have to suffer for it - which is bad enough, but then the government wags its moral finger at us... it's bad enough we have to pay for their mistakes, we shouldn't be blamed for their mistakes, too.
« Last Edit: June 23, 2020, 02:04:43 AM by Kyle Schuant »

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2556 on: June 23, 2020, 02:06:24 AM »
It has been pointed out that Covid-19 infections are extremely clustered. This is one of the reasons why random sampling to decide how many are / have been infected is not very accurate - the answer you get is very dependent on exactly where you sample. It also becomes very clear when the number of infections is very low (like here now) - it is very concentrated cases, normally within a family or similar.

We also had a huge rally when the "black lives matter" protests took place, but so far there has been no surge in cases. People flock to the beaches in the nice weather, lots of people go out to eat and it's frankly quite hard to see anything special going on at first eyesight but some stuff is still closed, lots fof stuff at reduced capacity, lots of wfh, international travel strongly discouraged etc.

But pretty much noone wears a mask and still no spreading to talk of.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2557 on: June 23, 2020, 02:21:42 AM »

Here in Victoria we've had a "surge" (by which we're talking ~20 cases a day out of 5 million) of new infections, but most of them are being caused by close contact. Not rallies, not grocery stores, not even public transport. But instead, child-to-teacher transmission at schools, and transmission among family. It seems there have been a few clusters where despite a positive test, family gatherings continued and that led to multiple infections within the extended family.

Many of those were caused by quarantine hotel security guards being rationed PPE and not trained in proper hygiene. Guards got infected, were asymptomatic so went home and infected their families, who were also asymptomatic and had a quite legal gathering with another family.


They were rationed PPE because the govt feared the healthcare system running out. Of course, if the security guys had plenty of PPE, then the healthcare system would need less... It reminds me of this survival show we've been watching, where a guy starts starving so he hoards his food... until he reaches BMI 17, with a blood pressure of 80/60, and is taken off the show.

"One hotel leaking out cases is maybe just bad luck, but two? This is not good,Ē he said. ďThis is a government run quarantine situation which is leaking out cases through security guards. It is interesting that Daniel Andrews focused on the people not behaving or sticking to quarantine, but actually there is just as much sorting out to do from the government side of how they are running their quarantine hotels."

https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/coronavirus-hotspots-and-the-family-clusters-driving-its-spread-20200622-p55504.html


As with the Ruby Princess, the northwest Tasmania cluster, the Cedar Meats cluster - or, for that matter, the governor of New York sending sick people into nursing homes - the government fucks up, and then the people have to suffer for it - which is bad enough, but then the government wags its moral finger at us... it's bad enough we have to pay for their mistakes, we shouldn't be blamed for their mistakes, too.

A lot of the new infections have been spread by security guards and abattoir workers, yes. But it's not like they're the super educated type who are likely to self-quarantine and work from home. They can't do their jobs from home and won't be wanting to use sick leave (if they have any) to miss work, so unless you force them to stop, they're going to keep living life as usual. Pretty similar to me, except I have a boring white collar job that doesn't require me to talk to anyone unless I really want to.

There's not much the government could have done better to prevent the initial transmission, but yes, they could have locked down hard once it was clear there was a "cluster". I suppose they were worried it would be a bad look because I think a lot of the people affected are low income, non-white families and to lock them down in the absence of positive testing would have created all sorts of diplomatic problems. And of course by the time the positive tests come back it's too late. Plus the mild/asymptomatic nature of a lot of the cases makes transmission easier.

Paper Chaser

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2558 on: June 23, 2020, 03:16:48 AM »
This is the exact mindset that's becoming more and more prevalent among Americans as more and more go back to work. And it's what many have said here for along time. Seems it's similar North of the border as well. It's a mix of fear initially, but that wanes and is overtaken with a sense of hopelessness and/or inevitability. "Essential Workers" have mostly felt this for months now. So, welcome to your new reality as an "essential worker". You're a couple months later in arriving to this mindset than many, but your white collar, work-from-home privilege was likely filtering your outlook. In the next step of your journey, you'll probably realize that wiping down groceries, probably isn't really a worthwhile use of your time for a respiratory virus. You might even venture out for regular errands more than once every couple of weeks. You'll realize that being forced to wear a mask 8+ hours per day at work can be a pain and could make you less inclined to don one if you're just picking up some carry out or something on your way home. And then, without realizing it, you've become the thing you hated 4-6 weeks ago... Come on in, the water's fine!

You are making a few incorrect assumptions here.

Although I've been working remotely most of the time, I've regularly had to go in to the office when there was need.  The industry that I work in (broadcast) was considered an essential service right from the start.

The hopelessness I'm beginning to feel stems from the fact that some assholes didn't fucking take things seriously early on, so it now looks like we'll be unable to get a handle on this thing.  These people have managed to help us squander our time so that now we have no choice but to start opening things that aren't safe to open.

If six weeks ago you were fucking around rather than doing what you should have done, with the sick intent of making the pandemic worse for others, make no mistake about it.  You, personally, are the problem.  You can take your schadenfreude glee and stuff it up your ass.

Just for the record, I've been staying home when possible and avoiding gatherings per my local government's guidelines. I practice social distancing when in public. I wear a mask when I feel it's appropriate in public and all the time at work. I would never intentionally try to get anybody sick as you seem to think, and I'm not sure how many people actually fall into that category.

It's not schadenfreude glee on my part, it's just surprising that an intelligent person like yourself thought that this virus was just going to be done, gone and contained in a couple of months because some people can work from home (like yourself). It seems like you more or less thought "I'll just hunker down for a couple of months and let other people do the dirty, uncomfortable tasks of full-time mask wearing and social distancing all day every day until it's safe for me to go back", but that's not how this was ever going to go down. If you're still working or going out in public frequently, it's going to inconvenience you and increase your personal risk no matter what. There's a reason that the Imperial College study back at the start of the pandemic used a two year timeline right? So I'm not really dancing around with glee that you might have to deal with the reality that many have been dealing with for months, but it was a profound image for me of just how privileged some can be to think that they were just going to leave most of the hassle and risk to fall on those less fortunate. For the most part I just found it interesting that some really intelligent people are only now realizing that this virus is probably here to stay, at least for awhile, and really coming to terms with the fact that they'll have to deal with it first hand. We all go through the process at different speeds I guess. You're clearly angry and upset. That will pass. I've been in the "acceptance" stage for awhile now.

All of this social distancing stuff was to control the virus as much as we could to limit spread and spare the medical industry to avoid additional deaths. It was never likely to eradicate the virus in a couple of months. We had massive lockdowns with only essential travel for two months down here. The virus still spread because somebody has to drive the trucks to deliver food and somebody has to staff the hospitals/nursing homes and somebody has to make sure the lights stay on, etc. The virus spreading isn't the fault of just a few assholes being assholes. It's just what viruses do. Especially if there's any asymptomatic transmission. It took a ton of sacrifice and effort from a lot of people to do as well as we've done. Perfection was never a realistic expectation. You fear having to wear a mask all day, and wonder how you'll be able to get any work done, but there are lots and lots of people that have been doing just that for months. I'm here to tell you it sucks! They're not perfect, but they're trying. They'll slip up, but will probably get it right more than they get it wrong. They might be spreading the virus, but that doesn't make them assholes doing it intentionally. It just makes them humans living in society that requires some level of interaction no matter what.
« Last Edit: June 23, 2020, 03:55:47 AM by Paper Chaser »

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2559 on: June 23, 2020, 08:56:57 AM »
This is the exact mindset that's becoming more and more prevalent among Americans as more and more go back to work. And it's what many have said here for along time. Seems it's similar North of the border as well. It's a mix of fear initially, but that wanes and is overtaken with a sense of hopelessness and/or inevitability. "Essential Workers" have mostly felt this for months now. So, welcome to your new reality as an "essential worker". You're a couple months later in arriving to this mindset than many, but your white collar, work-from-home privilege was likely filtering your outlook. In the next step of your journey, you'll probably realize that wiping down groceries, probably isn't really a worthwhile use of your time for a respiratory virus. You might even venture out for regular errands more than once every couple of weeks. You'll realize that being forced to wear a mask 8+ hours per day at work can be a pain and could make you less inclined to don one if you're just picking up some carry out or something on your way home. And then, without realizing it, you've become the thing you hated 4-6 weeks ago... Come on in, the water's fine!

You are making a few incorrect assumptions here.

Although I've been working remotely most of the time, I've regularly had to go in to the office when there was need.  The industry that I work in (broadcast) was considered an essential service right from the start.

The hopelessness I'm beginning to feel stems from the fact that some assholes didn't fucking take things seriously early on, so it now looks like we'll be unable to get a handle on this thing.  These people have managed to help us squander our time so that now we have no choice but to start opening things that aren't safe to open.

If six weeks ago you were fucking around rather than doing what you should have done, with the sick intent of making the pandemic worse for others, make no mistake about it.  You, personally, are the problem.  You can take your schadenfreude glee and stuff it up your ass.

Just for the record, I've been staying home when possible and avoiding gatherings per my local government's guidelines. I practice social distancing when in public. I wear a mask when I feel it's appropriate in public and all the time at work. I would never intentionally try to get anybody sick as you seem to think, and I'm not sure how many people actually fall into that category.

Good!  I'm encouraged to hear that you're not the asshole you portrayed yourself to be in the previous post.


It's not schadenfreude glee on my part, it's just surprising that an intelligent person like yourself thought that this virus was just going to be done, gone and contained in a couple of months because some people can work from home (like yourself).

Your demonstrated reading comprehension is very poor.  As mentioned, I've had to regularly go in to my office since March.


It seems like you more or less thought "I'll just hunker down for a couple of months and let other people do the dirty, uncomfortable tasks of full-time mask wearing and social distancing all day every day until it's safe for me to go back", but that's not how this was ever going to go down.

This is not something I ever thought.

This virus has a relatively short period where it transmits (well under a month).  If people took the recommended precautions seriously for the past three months, then we should be well on the way to eradication of the disease.

The thousands of people who minimized their outside contact with the world to help limit the spread of this virus were not letting 'other people do the dirty, uncomfortable tasks' for them.  They were helping to increase the safety of every single person who was required to work.  This was their duty.  I'm not sure where your seeming outrage against these people is coming from.  Is it purely a jealousy thing, or is there some martyr complex mixed in too?


If you're still working or going out in public frequently, it's going to inconvenience you and increase your personal risk no matter what.

Aside from people like myself who were working in essential services, nobody should have been going out in public frequently over the past three months.  If you have been doing this, you were one of the assholes who ensured that this problem would still be carrying on.

Again, you seem to have misunderstood my issue.  The problem is not the series of inconveniences that I've been experiencing on a regular basis since the lockdown began, the problem in the increased danger that is coming as we lift restrictions.  Going into my office on a split 24 hour shift system to reduce people on site while many work from home is safer than lifting all restrictions and going back to regular hours.  Even the simplest tasks like going to get groceries as this happens at workplaces across our province increases the danger for everyone.  As we lift restrictions we will see reduced, not increased mask wearing as people become more and more complacent (as you've indicated you have become).


So I'm not really dancing around with glee that you might have to deal with the reality that many have been dealing with for months, but it was a profound image for me of just how privileged some can be to think that they were just going to leave most of the hassle and risk to fall on those less fortunate. For the most part I just found it interesting that some really intelligent people are only now realizing that this virus is probably here to stay, at least for awhile, and really coming to terms with the fact that they'll have to deal with it first hand.

As someone who has been working in an essential service, who has been required to come in to the office for months while everything was locked down . . . I obviously have no idea what it's like to deal with wearing a mask at work.  Please my good martyr, tell me of your troubles and travails.

Thank you ever so much for opening my privileged eyes.  Sometimes the privilege gets so very heavy to bear on my own.  I've been cladding myself in a covid-proof suit sewn together entirely of those less fortunate than myself to avoid dealing with things first hand while working in the office during this pandemic though - so hopefully that will continue to work into the foreseeable future.


You're clearly angry and upset.

This is true.  But not for the reasons you appear to believe.


All of this social distancing stuff was to control the virus as much as we could to limit spread and spare the medical industry to avoid additional deaths. It was never likely to eradicate the virus in a couple of months. We had massive lockdowns with only essential travel for two months down here. The virus still spread because somebody has to drive the trucks to deliver food and somebody has to staff the hospitals/nursing homes and somebody has to make sure the lights stay on, etc. The virus spreading isn't the fault of just a few assholes being assholes. It's just what viruses do. Especially if there's any asymptomatic transmission. It took a ton of sacrifice and effort from a lot of people to do as well as we've done. Perfection was never a realistic expectation.

We have had lockdowns here as well.  Here's an example of one of Toronto's parks during lockdown:


I don't believe that 'all of this social distancing stuff' was anywhere near as effective as it should have been because of the large number of people who never bothered to follow it.  The virus spreading isn't the fault of a few assholes being assholes . . . but those assholes are certainly helping it spread.  While I didn't expect perfection, certainly better than this:


You fear having to wear a mask all day, and wonder how you'll be able to get any work done, but there are lots and lots of people that have been doing just that for months.

I'm used to wearing a mask all day and dealing with work disruptions, as I've been doing that on and off for the past few months.  My concern is that when management forces people back to offices where there's no real reason or benefit in going back it increases risk to me being in the office.  And every person who pulls their face mask below their chin and walks around like they're doing the right thing, every person who takes their mask off to yell at someone on a phone (a job they could be doing from home) . . . that just increases risk for everyone.

sui generis

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2560 on: June 23, 2020, 09:19:27 AM »
Interesting preliminary news: BLM protests did not spike cases.  What they don't talk about here is that it is extremely hard to social distance at a protest.  I can't speak for all of them, of course, but I'd be surprised to learn that any protests successfully maintained 6 feet of distance between all protestors at all (or even any?) times.  So, the conclusion about success in use of masks and being outdoors should, I think, incorporate the idea that this is *even without social distancing*.  (yes, I'm on my hobby horse about mask requirements when outdoors and within 20 or 25 feet of another person and how that undermines legitimacy of all regulations.)

One other thing it cites is relative youth of the protestors.  That may be, but anecdotally, there were a LOT of "old people" (let's say getting toward 55-60+) at the protests I went to, even while I saw many others saying they were too old to go.  But yes, also anecdotally, there was effectively 100% compliance with mask wearing that I could see.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/06/no-evidence-that-protests-have-caused-a-coronavirus-surge.html

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2561 on: June 23, 2020, 09:46:32 AM »
To stick up for my fellow citizens a little bit, low angle photos on social media showing crowded parks don't always capture the full story.

Mobile phone data shows that mobility is considerably down. So people aren't perfect, but things are being done.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2562 on: June 23, 2020, 10:27:19 AM »
And while we are discussing why we should be concerned, let's look at the other effects.  Dying is an end, although dying from this is quite nasty during the process, but it seems that lots of people who were mildly sick have hidden damage, they are now walking around with compromised lungs (and possibly other organs).  So that healthy 30 year old who had a mild case is now going to huff and puff when they go hiking, or riding a bike, or running around with their kids.  Quality of life is a thing, and a lot of people are going to lose some.

No matter how many times we try to hammer home this excellent point, some people refuse even to consider it. This virus has some very serious potential side effects/sequelae, and we donít yet know who is most prone to developing them. Even some young, healthy people are being knocked flat for weeks or longer by this illness. Locking up many employed and productive people based on age and letting the virus run rampant through the rest of us, as has been suggested by a few posters, seems like a poorly informed and terrible idea from a public health perspective. It is the idea of a society that has decided to give up, rather than try to continue slowing and mitigating spread so that our medical systems and essential supply chains remain functional.

Is it realistic to shut everything down until thereís a vaccine? No. Of course not. Could we be doing a hell of a lot better as a country than we have been? Yeah, I think thatís evident from the obvious community outbreaks in several states that have had plenty of time to learn from the experiences of (for example) Michigan.

This may have been answered before, but is there any reliable knowledge out there about permanent damage for people who are relatively asymptomatic/non-hospitalized or non-what would be hospitalized if hospitals weren't having people stay away except for extreme cases? Ra63 has presented it as if you may barely know you're sick and have permanent damage. Is this accurate?

The world has known about the virus for 6 months (at least, that's when physicians in Wuhan first started raising the alarm), so some of the long-term damage projections are based on what researchers and clinicians learned during the first SARS-coronavirus epidemic 17 years ago. It seems that many patients who do not present with significant COVID-19 symptoms are still presenting with blood clotting issues (which would also explain the emergence of Kawasaki-like syndrome in several infected children without "classic" symptoms).

https://www.biospace.com/article/covid-19-increases-risk-of-heart-attacks-and-stroke/
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2009787
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200424/blood-clots-are-another-dangerous-covid-19-mystery
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31103-X/fulltext

Thanks for the information!

Here's another one: Coronavirus: Warning thousands could be left with lung damage (BBC)

Paper Chaser

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2563 on: June 23, 2020, 10:36:41 AM »
This is the exact mindset that's becoming more and more prevalent among Americans as more and more go back to work. And it's what many have said here for along time. Seems it's similar North of the border as well. It's a mix of fear initially, but that wanes and is overtaken with a sense of hopelessness and/or inevitability. "Essential Workers" have mostly felt this for months now. So, welcome to your new reality as an "essential worker". You're a couple months later in arriving to this mindset than many, but your white collar, work-from-home privilege was likely filtering your outlook. In the next step of your journey, you'll probably realize that wiping down groceries, probably isn't really a worthwhile use of your time for a respiratory virus. You might even venture out for regular errands more than once every couple of weeks. You'll realize that being forced to wear a mask 8+ hours per day at work can be a pain and could make you less inclined to don one if you're just picking up some carry out or something on your way home. And then, without realizing it, you've become the thing you hated 4-6 weeks ago... Come on in, the water's fine!

You are making a few incorrect assumptions here.

Although I've been working remotely most of the time, I've regularly had to go in to the office when there was need.  The industry that I work in (broadcast) was considered an essential service right from the start.

The hopelessness I'm beginning to feel stems from the fact that some assholes didn't fucking take things seriously early on, so it now looks like we'll be unable to get a handle on this thing.  These people have managed to help us squander our time so that now we have no choice but to start opening things that aren't safe to open.

If six weeks ago you were fucking around rather than doing what you should have done, with the sick intent of making the pandemic worse for others, make no mistake about it.  You, personally, are the problem.  You can take your schadenfreude glee and stuff it up your ass.

Just for the record, I've been staying home when possible and avoiding gatherings per my local government's guidelines. I practice social distancing when in public. I wear a mask when I feel it's appropriate in public and all the time at work. I would never intentionally try to get anybody sick as you seem to think, and I'm not sure how many people actually fall into that category.

Good!  I'm encouraged to hear that you're not the asshole you portrayed yourself to be in the previous post.


It's not schadenfreude glee on my part, it's just surprising that an intelligent person like yourself thought that this virus was just going to be done, gone and contained in a couple of months because some people can work from home (like yourself).

Your demonstrated reading comprehension is very poor.  As mentioned, I've had to regularly go in to my office since March.


It seems like you more or less thought "I'll just hunker down for a couple of months and let other people do the dirty, uncomfortable tasks of full-time mask wearing and social distancing all day every day until it's safe for me to go back", but that's not how this was ever going to go down.

This is not something I ever thought.

This virus has a relatively short period where it transmits (well under a month).  If people took the recommended precautions seriously for the past three months, then we should be well on the way to eradication of the disease.

The thousands of people who minimized their outside contact with the world to help limit the spread of this virus were not letting 'other people do the dirty, uncomfortable tasks' for them.  They were helping to increase the safety of every single person who was required to work.  This was their duty.  I'm not sure where your seeming outrage against these people is coming from.  Is it purely a jealousy thing, or is there some martyr complex mixed in too?


If you're still working or going out in public frequently, it's going to inconvenience you and increase your personal risk no matter what.

Aside from people like myself who were working in essential services, nobody should have been going out in public frequently over the past three months.  If you have been doing this, you were one of the assholes who ensured that this problem would still be carrying on.

Again, you seem to have misunderstood my issue.  The problem is not the series of inconveniences that I've been experiencing on a regular basis since the lockdown began, the problem in the increased danger that is coming as we lift restrictions.  Going into my office on a split 24 hour shift system to reduce people on site while many work from home is safer than lifting all restrictions and going back to regular hours.  Even the simplest tasks like going to get groceries as this happens at workplaces across our province increases the danger for everyone.  As we lift restrictions we will see reduced, not increased mask wearing as people become more and more complacent (as you've indicated you have become).


So I'm not really dancing around with glee that you might have to deal with the reality that many have been dealing with for months, but it was a profound image for me of just how privileged some can be to think that they were just going to leave most of the hassle and risk to fall on those less fortunate. For the most part I just found it interesting that some really intelligent people are only now realizing that this virus is probably here to stay, at least for awhile, and really coming to terms with the fact that they'll have to deal with it first hand.

As someone who has been working in an essential service, who has been required to come in to the office for months while everything was locked down . . . I obviously have no idea what it's like to deal with wearing a mask at work.  Please my good martyr, tell me of your troubles and travails.

Thank you ever so much for opening my privileged eyes.  Sometimes the privilege gets so very heavy to bear on my own.  I've been cladding myself in a covid-proof suit sewn together entirely of those less fortunate than myself to avoid dealing with things first hand while working in the office during this pandemic though - so hopefully that will continue to work into the foreseeable future.


You're clearly angry and upset.

This is true.  But not for the reasons you appear to believe.


All of this social distancing stuff was to control the virus as much as we could to limit spread and spare the medical industry to avoid additional deaths. It was never likely to eradicate the virus in a couple of months. We had massive lockdowns with only essential travel for two months down here. The virus still spread because somebody has to drive the trucks to deliver food and somebody has to staff the hospitals/nursing homes and somebody has to make sure the lights stay on, etc. The virus spreading isn't the fault of just a few assholes being assholes. It's just what viruses do. Especially if there's any asymptomatic transmission. It took a ton of sacrifice and effort from a lot of people to do as well as we've done. Perfection was never a realistic expectation.

We have had lockdowns here as well.

I don't believe that 'all of this social distancing stuff' was anywhere near as effective as it should have been because of the large number of people who never bothered to follow it.  The virus spreading isn't the fault of a few assholes being assholes . . . but those assholes are certainly helping it spread.  While I didn't expect perfection, certainly better than this:


You fear having to wear a mask all day, and wonder how you'll be able to get any work done, but there are lots and lots of people that have been doing just that for months.

I'm used to wearing a mask all day and dealing with work disruptions, as I've been doing that on and off for the past few months.  My concern is that when management forces people back to offices where there's no real reason or benefit in going back it increases risk to me being in the office.  And every person who pulls their face mask below their chin and walks around like they're doing the right thing, every person who takes their mask off to yell at someone on a phone (a job they could be doing from home) . . . that just increases risk for everyone.

I'm not going to respond to all of these individually but I'll say that I think it's a little ironic to at least insinuate that I'm an asshole (I very well might be) when you're the only one name calling in your posts.

I'll also say that "working in  an Essential Service" while you've "been working remotely most of the time" in your own words does not equate to the same risk that most "Essential Workers" have faced. That's a privilege, like it or not.

You've complained about those who don't wear mask or social distance, and called them assholes. And in the same post, you've complained about now having to wear a mask for several hours at a time, and that doing so might make it more difficult to talk on the phone because of those that didn't wear masks, etc. Again, there's some irony there and it comes off as more than a little entitled to me. "These Assholes didn't wear masks, and now it's their fault that I'll have to be more diligent in my mask wearing, or figure out how to talk on the phone while wearing one!" just seems like a whiny first world problem to me.
« Last Edit: June 23, 2020, 10:43:59 AM by Paper Chaser »

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2564 on: June 23, 2020, 12:52:55 PM »
I'm terrible sorry you feel insinuations have been made against you Paper Chaser.  That must have been so incredibly difficult!  Please accept my deepest and most sincere apologies.  It's probably stemming from my:
- "white collar, work-from-home privilege filtering" my outlook
- tendency to "let other people do the dirty, uncomfortable tasks of full-time mask wearing and social distancing all day every day until it's safe for me to go back"
- total inability to "deal with the reality that many have been dealing with for months"
- desire to "leave most of the hassle and risk to fall on those less fortunate"

How awful it must be to believe that someone has insinuated things about you!  Difficult for a person with my degree of privilege, lack of need to deal with reality, and comfort level exploiting the less fortunate to imagine really.

Oh, also . . . please don't hesitate to point out it out when something "just seems like a whiny first world problem" to you.  We certainly wouldn't want any of that going on in here.  Again, so very sorry for any insinuations that have rocked you to your gentle core.

fuzzy math

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2565 on: June 23, 2020, 12:56:49 PM »
You're being rude, STV. Let it go

Paper Chaser

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2566 on: June 23, 2020, 02:24:19 PM »
I'm terrible sorry you feel insinuations have been made against you Paper Chaser.  That must have been so incredibly difficult!  Please accept my deepest and most sincere apologies.  It's probably stemming from my:
- "white collar, work-from-home privilege filtering" my outlook
- tendency to "let other people do the dirty, uncomfortable tasks of full-time mask wearing and social distancing all day every day until it's safe for me to go back"
- total inability to "deal with the reality that many have been dealing with for months"
- desire to "leave most of the hassle and risk to fall on those less fortunate"

How awful it must be to believe that someone has insinuated things about you!  Difficult for a person with my degree of privilege, lack of need to deal with reality, and comfort level exploiting the less fortunate to imagine really.

Oh, also . . . please don't hesitate to point out it out when something "just seems like a whiny first world problem" to you.  We certainly wouldn't want any of that going on in here.  Again, so very sorry for any insinuations that have rocked you to your gentle core.

Have I done it!? Have I defied the odds and found the "least pleasant" Canadian? I guess it had to be somebody. What do I win, a month's worth of poutine from Tim's?

Seriously though, I expect some snark from you but you seem way more hostile and aggressive about this than most of your posts. Do you need a snickers or something? Just stressed about this virus? Are you just having a bad week, or have I mistaken some of your posts for a more reasonable and pleasant person?

Davnasty

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2567 on: June 23, 2020, 02:53:57 PM »
Paper Chaser, you're being rude too. Lot's of unfair assumptions from both of you.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2568 on: June 23, 2020, 03:00:38 PM »

I just got back from getting groceries and decontaminating them.  I think about 25% of the people were not wearing masks - no sure what's wrong with these idiots.  I really have to be on my toes to steer clear of them and keep them at a distance.  It makes me consider switching to a good quality respirator and wearing goggles.

We just came home from Walmart, where probably 95% of shoppers were wearing masks. What was more concerning to me than whether shoppers were/were not wearing a mask was the density of people in that store. It's been 3 months since we shopped at a Walmart, and I'm not planning to go again for at least that long. It was fucking horrible. Outside the store there were some signs, and even a recording playing over their speaker system in the parking lot, claiming that they were limiting the number of people allowed into the store, at one time, but I'm pretty sure that that was complete BS, because the place was packed. As much as possible, I tried to maneuver my cart around other shoppers to maintain a good 6' distance, but many times coming uncomfortably close to people was made all but impossible by the sheer number of shoppers in the store.

sui generis

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2569 on: June 23, 2020, 03:35:01 PM »

I just got back from getting groceries and decontaminating them.  I think about 25% of the people were not wearing masks - no sure what's wrong with these idiots.  I really have to be on my toes to steer clear of them and keep them at a distance.  It makes me consider switching to a good quality respirator and wearing goggles.

We just came home from Walmart, where probably 95% of shoppers were wearing masks. What was more concerning to me than whether shoppers were/were not wearing a mask was the density of people in that store. It's been 3 months since we shopped at a Walmart, and I'm not planning to go again for at least that long. It was fucking horrible. Outside the store there were some signs, and even a recording playing over their speaker system in the parking lot, claiming that they were limiting the number of people allowed into the store, at one time, but I'm pretty sure that that was complete BS, because the place was packed. As much as possible, I tried to maneuver my cart around other shoppers to maintain a good 6' distance, but many times coming uncomfortably close to people was made all but impossible by the sheer number of shoppers in the store.

That's been the situation at all my stores this whole time. I've sometimes waited in line for almost 15 minutes and still spend more time with 2 or 3 feet of fellow shoppers than further than 6. I'm pretty sure our lines would be at least 2 hours long to be able to preserve social distancing in the store. I'm not too worried about myself, given I'm in and out quickly, but it is worrisome for the workers that are spending much more prolonged periods in close proximity to shoppers. Near total mask usage at least.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2570 on: June 23, 2020, 03:38:22 PM »

I just got back from getting groceries and decontaminating them.  I think about 25% of the people were not wearing masks - no sure what's wrong with these idiots.  I really have to be on my toes to steer clear of them and keep them at a distance.  It makes me consider switching to a good quality respirator and wearing goggles.

We just came home from Walmart, where probably 95% of shoppers were wearing masks. What was more concerning to me than whether shoppers were/were not wearing a mask was the density of people in that store. It's been 3 months since we shopped at a Walmart, and I'm not planning to go again for at least that long. It was fucking horrible. Outside the store there were some signs, and even a recording playing over their speaker system in the parking lot, claiming that they were limiting the number of people allowed into the store, at one time, but I'm pretty sure that that was complete BS, because the place was packed. As much as possible, I tried to maneuver my cart around other shoppers to maintain a good 6' distance, but many times coming uncomfortably close to people was made all but impossible by the sheer number of shoppers in the store.

That's been the situation at all my stores this whole time. I've sometimes waited in line for almost 15 minutes and still spend more time with 2 or 3 feet of fellow shoppers than further than 6. I'm pretty sure our lines would be at least 2 hours long to be able to preserve social distancing in the store. I'm not too worried about myself, given I'm in and out quickly, but it is worrisome for the workers that are spending much more prolonged periods in close proximity to shoppers. Near total mask usage at least.

Yeah, feeling really grateful, right now, that I don't have to work at Walmart. Having to spend all day, every day, there would suck pretty bad.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2571 on: June 23, 2020, 04:29:24 PM »
Have I done it!? Have I defied the odds and found the "least pleasant" Canadian? I guess it had to be somebody. What do I win, a month's worth of poutine from Tim's?

Timmy's doesn't sell poutine.  Would you like some Timbits?   /s

BTW, we are generally polite, but we do have limits.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2572 on: June 23, 2020, 07:52:01 PM »
The NY Times reports the 2-week average percent changes in the national case and death counts every single morning, right on the front page of the website. Another click takes the reader to a page with a county-level national map indicating exactly where cases are increasing and decreasing every week, as well as a tabulated data by state and county.

Today, NYT reports a decrease of 43% in the national death rate over 2 weeks. It also reports a 20% increase in the national case count during the same period. The case count percent change was in the negative double digits a couple of weeks ago. It's too soon to declare victory, as the death rate patterns seem to follow the case count patterns by a few weeks.

I've attached today's national percent changes in case numbers and deaths as per the NY Times. Not great.

The governor of Texas is sounding the alarm. Texas Children's Hospital has started admitting adult patients to ease pressure on general hospitals. We're nowhere near out of the woods.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2573 on: June 23, 2020, 07:59:09 PM »
But @OtherJen I hear the US is trending down /s

Jack0Life

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2574 on: June 23, 2020, 09:54:55 PM »
But @OtherJen I hear the US is trending down /s

YUP. The US is trending way down.
I can imagine other countries are laughing at our leaders handling of the pandemic.



former player

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2575 on: June 24, 2020, 02:05:18 AM »
But @OtherJen I hear the US is trending down /s

YUP. The US is trending way down.
I can imagine other countries are laughing at our leaders handling of the pandemic.
We laugh at your leaders for some things but not this.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2576 on: June 24, 2020, 01:13:28 PM »
Today my county has reinstated the state of emergency that it let expire 5/18. It also made masks in public places a requirement.

obstinate

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2577 on: June 24, 2020, 01:23:56 PM »
We laugh at your leaders for some things but not this.
So, you're more in the shake your head in disgust camp? Because there can be no positive reaction to our bungling of this pandemic. Other industrialized nations would be right to regard us as a nation of fools.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2578 on: June 24, 2020, 01:46:55 PM »
We laugh at your leaders for some things but not this.
So, you're more in the shake your head in disgust camp? Because there can be no positive reaction to our bungling of this pandemic. Other industrialized nations would be right to regard us as a nation of fools.

The US is currently led by a fool, but is not a nation of fools.  A great many of the smartest people in the world reside in your country.

deborah

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2579 on: June 24, 2020, 02:08:41 PM »
No shaking of heads in disgust. More of a profound amazement that weíre doing so much better. And wishful thinking that everyone else had done as well, so it would be like SARS (only in pockets) rather than something that the whole world will have to live with.

obstinate

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2580 on: June 24, 2020, 02:18:19 PM »
We laugh at your leaders for some things but not this.
So, you're more in the shake your head in disgust camp? Because there can be no positive reaction to our bungling of this pandemic. Other industrialized nations would be right to regard us as a nation of fools.

The US is currently led by a fool, but is not a nation of fools.  A great many of the smartest people in the world reside in your country.
A great many of the smartest people in the world reside in every country. I'm not sure whether we have more than our share -- I doubt it. But it's irrelevant, in any case, because intelligence and wisdom are different, and I'm talking about the wisdom of the population writ large, not just the intelligence of the top percentile.

fuzzy math

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2581 on: June 24, 2020, 04:06:48 PM »
But @OtherJen I hear the US is trending down /s

YUP. The US is trending way down.
I can imagine other countries are laughing at our leaders handling of the pandemic.

Your inclusion of 1 metric without any consideration of the others highlights issues with thinking about this disease. Its a very complex subject. How many tests were performed on 3/26? How many tests were performed on 6/23?

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2582 on: June 24, 2020, 04:28:45 PM »
Iím quite aware of the testing changes

fuzzy math

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2583 on: June 24, 2020, 04:30:52 PM »
Iím quite aware of the testing changes

You're not aware that your name isn't Jack0Life however...

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2584 on: June 24, 2020, 04:39:11 PM »
Ah. I assumed since you quoted both of our posts you were replying to both of us.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2585 on: June 24, 2020, 04:40:53 PM »
This is an interesting analysis of the claims that the increased case rates are solely due to increased testing (spoiler: it depends on the state, but definitely not in Florida and Arizona). Did reopenings work? What to do next? Surprising findings through Data Analysis

Hospitalization rates are also increasing, and thatís not merely a function of increased testing. Hopefully the weeks-long trend of decreasing death rates holds true, which would suggest that 1) the virus is largely being circulated among less vulnerable populations, 2) it has mutated to be less virulent, or 3) medical treatments are more effective.

We can choose to ignore data that donít fit our preconceived notions, but the data are what they are. The death rate isnít the only metric that counts, and itís not the only one that impacts the economy.

fuzzy math

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2586 on: June 24, 2020, 05:04:10 PM »
Ah. I assumed since you quoted both of our posts you were replying to both of us.

No sorry! He also deleted his post which leaves me without the troubling graph I was referring to...

fuzzy math

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2587 on: June 24, 2020, 05:08:59 PM »
This is an interesting analysis of the claims that the increased case rates are solely due to increased testing (spoiler: it depends on the state, but definitely not in Florida and Arizona). Did reopenings work? What to do next? Surprising findings through Data Analysis

Hospitalization rates are also increasing, and thatís not merely a function of increased testing. Hopefully the weeks-long trend of decreasing death rates holds true, which would suggest that 1) the virus is largely being circulated among less vulnerable populations, 2) it has mutated to be less virulent, or 3) medical treatments are more effective.

We can choose to ignore data that donít fit our preconceived notions, but the data are what they are. The death rate isnít the only metric that counts, and itís not the only one that impacts the economy.

Without the context of the graph that was deleted, I think you're trying to fit your response to the assumptions you think I have about the data.

The graph showed an increase in cases. My response was that without the context of testing levels that its meaningless. Paradoxically deaths are going down and hospitalizations are rising. Will deaths rise in 2-3 weeks? Will they stay even? Will they continue their downward trajectory? We simply do not have enough knowledge to say. There are singular graphs that are both reassuring and concerning. The lack of data from March - April has probably permanently handicapped us from gathering meaningful enough data to make confident forward projections.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2588 on: June 24, 2020, 05:20:39 PM »
This is an interesting analysis of the claims that the increased case rates are solely due to increased testing (spoiler: it depends on the state, but definitely not in Florida and Arizona). Did reopenings work? What to do next? Surprising findings through Data Analysis

Hospitalization rates are also increasing, and thatís not merely a function of increased testing. Hopefully the weeks-long trend of decreasing death rates holds true, which would suggest that 1) the virus is largely being circulated among less vulnerable populations, 2) it has mutated to be less virulent, or 3) medical treatments are more effective.

We can choose to ignore data that donít fit our preconceived notions, but the data are what they are. The death rate isnít the only metric that counts, and itís not the only one that impacts the economy.

Without the context of the graph that was deleted, I think you're trying to fit your response to the assumptions you think I have about the data.

The graph showed an increase in cases. My response was that without the context of testing levels that its meaningless. Paradoxically deaths are going down and hospitalizations are rising. Will deaths rise in 2-3 weeks? Will they stay even? Will they continue their downward trajectory? We simply do not have enough knowledge to say. There are singular graphs that are both reassuring and concerning. The lack of data from March - April has probably permanently handicapped us from gathering meaningful enough data to make confident forward projections.

Got it. Yeah, I think weíre mostly in agreement. We donít yet know how the death rates will look in 2-4 weeks. Hopefully not as bad as Michiganís did in April.

Gremlin

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2589 on: June 24, 2020, 05:39:48 PM »
The lack of data from March - April has probably permanently handicapped us from gathering meaningful enough data to make confident forward projections.

I hope this continues to be true.  There's some pretty robust data being generated now.  If the lack of data from March/April has permanently handicapped us from making forward projections this means that we're not going to be needing to be making similar projections in September/October or December/January or March/April 2021.  We can all hope that this is true, but there has to be a chance that the lack of data has only temporarily handicapped us from making confident forward projections.

Indexer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2590 on: June 24, 2020, 05:45:04 PM »
Some interesting graphs. The first three are from the Wall Street Journal daily shot.








More testing: As it's been shown by OtherJen, some states are seeing cases rising disproportionately to their testing so it isn't just testing. The testing also doesn't explain why the number of cases in the US are growing months after every other developed nation got it under control. We can debate if cases should be at 20k or 30k right now, and how much increased testing impacts that.... but really, the cases should be under 5k per day by now.

I've also seen the argument that people who come to the hospital are being tested even if they came for something else. That's been the case for months now. It doesn't explain why cases are increasing now.

On the topic of deaths:

source: Wikipedia

Rolling average April 17-22:  1692
Rolling average June 7-12: 614

In mid-late April we were averaging around 30k cases per day, early-mid June we are closer to 20-22k cases per day. That implies a mortality rate around 5.5% in April. That's on the high end. For June it looks closer to 2.8%. What this tells me is that either A) we were under testing in April, which bumped up the mortality rate, B) our treatments got better, or C) less vulnerable populations are getting sick now.

I think it's a combination of all 3. Even if it's a difference in testing, the cases are spiking over the past two weeks. We didn't dramatically change testing over the past 2 weeks.


Solution: I don't see another lock down as an option. It didn't work the first time and I don't expect people to take it more seriously the second time.. especially in the summer months. The best thing we can probably do is take precautions where we can. Wear a mask, order take out instead of sitting in the restaurant, etc.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2020, 05:49:37 PM by Indexer »

I'm a red panda

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2591 on: June 24, 2020, 05:56:29 PM »
My county saw an increase in cases this week, but a decrease in tests.  More testing is not the reason for cases going up. Spread is the reason.

Hospitalizations also do not depend on testing. People will need to be treated for severe cases with or without a test, as many people likely were before we knew this virus was present in our communities.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2592 on: June 24, 2020, 07:13:46 PM »
I think if cases are rising but deaths are not then that militates against having another lockdown. As others have said, it suggests that either case numbers are related to tests, or that the virus is less deadly now, or that less vulnerable populations are being infected.

Here in Victoria we have had a resurgence of cases - from <5 a day to more than 30 a day now. Most of them seem to be quite mild cases. The government, to their credit, is handling it very well. No return to lockdowns, but rather a heavy focus on the suburbs that are disproportionately affected (mostly poor suburbs) with free testing for all residents. The next step would be localised lockdowns which I would be in favour of, as opposed to state-wide lockdowns. There are large areas of the state which are virus free so no point everyone suffering because a few families decided to have extended get-togethers for some god forsaken reason. (I've been very cavalier about the virus, but I would not have endorsed any large social get-together in an enclosed space with lots of people from different places. That's stupid, and asking for trouble.)

Gremlin

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2593 on: June 24, 2020, 07:47:53 PM »
I think if cases are rising but deaths are not then that militates against having another lockdown. As others have said, it suggests that either case numbers are related to tests, or that the virus is less deadly now, or that less vulnerable populations are being infected.

Here in Victoria we have had a resurgence of cases - from <5 a day to more than 30 a day now. Most of them seem to be quite mild cases. The government, to their credit, is handling it very well. No return to lockdowns, but rather a heavy focus on the suburbs that are disproportionately affected (mostly poor suburbs) with free testing for all residents. The next step would be localised lockdowns which I would be in favour of, as opposed to state-wide lockdowns. There are large areas of the state which are virus free so no point everyone suffering because a few families decided to have extended get-togethers for some god forsaken reason. (I've been very cavalier about the virus, but I would not have endorsed any large social get-together in an enclosed space with lots of people from different places. That's stupid, and asking for trouble.)
FTFY

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2594 on: June 24, 2020, 07:54:48 PM »
Is there any official word that supports the extended family get-togethers being religious in nature?

It's strange because the state officials have been talking about the resurgence being linked to "multi-cultural communities" who don't speak English and don't tune into mainstream media but they've been at pains not to give further details.

We know it's not Aborigines at fault, or black people (any time it's black people, the media gets ahold of it and blows it up). It's probably not Chinese either, because they also get targeted as the rich foreign cash cows.

js82

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2595 on: June 24, 2020, 08:25:00 PM »

In mid-late April we were averaging around 30k cases per day, early-mid June we are closer to 20-22k cases per day. That implies a mortality rate around 5.5% in April. That's on the high end. For June it looks closer to 2.8%. What this tells me is that either A) we were under testing in April, which bumped up the mortality rate, B) our treatments got better, or C) less vulnerable populations are getting sick now.

I think it's a combination of all 3. Even if it's a difference in testing, the cases are spiking over the past two weeks. We didn't dramatically change testing over the past 2 weeks.

There's plenty of evidence to support A: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states

As well as B(one example): https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/16/major-study-finds-common-steroid-reduces-deaths-among-patients-with-severe-covid-19/

C is probably harder to quantify, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if awareness of the relative risks to the elderly has gone a long way towards us doing a better job of protecting them.

Gremlin

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2596 on: June 24, 2020, 08:40:41 PM »
I think if cases are rising but deaths are not then that militates against having another lockdown. As others have said, it suggests that either case numbers are related to tests, or that the virus is less deadly now, or that less vulnerable populations are being infected.
I think there's a couple of things at play.

First, there's no doubt that testing regimes are better now than in late March.  The positivity rates reflect this.  Whether testing regimes are substantially better than a month ago is decidedly questionable.  What's concerning are areas where the positivity rate are increasing in recent times, such as Texas and Arizona, which indicates a lower prevalence of testing compared to growth in the disease.

Second, the virus has several mutations already.  Clinically, both the European and UK mutations are both more deadly and more transmissible than the original Wuhan variant.  It's the European mutation that is most common in the US.  Here in Australia, the early cases were predominantly the Wuhan variant.  Whilst recent cases are either European or UK mutations, most of them don't transmit to the community since they are controlled during mandatory quarantine.  It may be that new milder mutations are becoming more prevalent, but genomic testing hasn't shown that to be the case so far.

Third, worldwide deaths are now rising again.  The 7-day moving average shows that daily deaths troughed at 4,079 on May 26.  Four weeks later we are now at 4,627 for the same metric, a 13% increase for the month.

Fourth, we are learning how to manage through the disease.  There are definitely medical interventions that are proving more effective than others and this is helping stem the death toll.  This is reliant on those sick being able to access medical care when required.  Hence, the increasing concern in places such as Arizona around the capacity of ICUs. 

Fifth, the epicentre of the virus has shifted to countries with typically younger populations than Western Europe and North America which would naturally expect to drive down the death rate.  On the flip side, economically, many of the people will not be able to afford the social distancing measures that were put in place in the West, nor have access to medical treatment of the same standard, hence increasing the death rate.

Sixth, there is a lag between diagnosis and death.  Early analysis suggested this to be in the order of three weeks on average at an individual level.  However, as testing regimes are getting better this timeframe is increasing.  This is for two reasons.  People are generally being tested earlier than before.  And the medical interventions are improving, thus enabling some to 'hold on for longer' before succumbing.  But timeframes at an individual level don't translate to the same timeframes at a cohort level.  Germany would be a good example of this.  Lots of testing from early on, active management of social distancing well adopted by the population, hospital systems not overwhelmed.  Numbers that are far more robust than many other nations.  Other than a reporting anomaly on the 8th of April, their peak deaths occurred on the 15th of April.  Their peak cases occurred on the 27th of March.  There was a 2.5 week delay between peak cases and peak deaths.  By the time their peak deaths occurred, their new case volumes were already well below half of the peak.  One thing that is interesting is that the trough in daily deaths worldwide on May 26th came just over two weeks after a turning point in new worldwide cases.

So lots of things impacting.  Some positive, some negative.  Not all are good news nor bad.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2597 on: June 24, 2020, 08:51:00 PM »

In mid-late April we were averaging around 30k cases per day, early-mid June we are closer to 20-22k cases per day. That implies a mortality rate around 5.5% in April. That's on the high end. For June it looks closer to 2.8%. What this tells me is that either A) we were under testing in April, which bumped up the mortality rate, B) our treatments got better, or C) less vulnerable populations are getting sick now.

I think it's a combination of all 3. Even if it's a difference in testing, the cases are spiking over the past two weeks. We didn't dramatically change testing over the past 2 weeks.

There's plenty of evidence to support A: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states

As well as B(one example): https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/16/major-study-finds-common-steroid-reduces-deaths-among-patients-with-severe-covid-19/

C is probably harder to quantify, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if awareness of the relative risks to the elderly has gone a long way towards us doing a better job of protecting them.
Age is such a massive predictor of mortality that the reduction in median age of new cases is by itself strongly suggestive of C.

The problem with looking at postive test rate is one has to control for the prevalence of influenza and other non-covid illness in the population. Earlier in the outbreak, we were still in the tail end of the flu season, so there were symptomatic people with the flu getting tested. That effect plus the fact tests were being rationed meant that the composition of the population sample being tested then is different from the composition of the population sample being tested now, with greater emphasis on contact tracing. I'm not sure if this is a significant problem but it's one problem I can think of with looking at raw positive testing rates (the other being what the false-positive/negative rates are for the tests being deployed).

I think if cases are rising but deaths are not then that militates against having another lockdown. As others have said, it suggests that either case numbers are related to tests, or that the virus is less deadly now, or that less vulnerable populations are being infected.
Second, the virus has several mutations already.  Clinically, both the European and UK mutations are both more deadly and more transmissible than the original Wuhan variant.  It's the European mutation that is most common in the US.  Here in Australia, the early cases were predominantly the Wuhan variant.  Whilst recent cases are either European or UK mutations, most of them don't transmit to the community since they are controlled during mandatory quarantine.  It may be that new milder mutations are becoming more prevalent, but genomic testing hasn't shown that to be the case so far.
Do you have a source for this? There was a widely misreported paper from maybe two months ago that gave some people this impression and I'm wondering (since I haven't followed as closely recently) if there is something more substantive on this front now.

Davnasty

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2598 on: June 24, 2020, 09:48:45 PM »
...So lots of things impacting.  Some positive, some negative.  Not all are good news nor bad.

Great summary and thanks for the information on time lag between diagnosis and death. Do you have any sources for that information? I've been looking for data related to this topic.

fuzzy math

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2599 on: June 24, 2020, 10:21:49 PM »
The lack of data from March - April has probably permanently handicapped us from gathering meaningful enough data to make confident forward projections.

I hope this continues to be true.  There's some pretty robust data being generated now.  If the lack of data from March/April has permanently handicapped us from making forward projections this means that we're not going to be needing to be making similar projections in September/October or December/January or March/April 2021.  We can all hope that this is true, but there has to be a chance that the lack of data has only temporarily handicapped us from making confident forward projections.
In the US a ton was missed by missing the first part of the curve. True case counts, IFR, CFR, R(0), peak days, hospital utilization etc were all surmised by incorrect data, which has influenced projections and policies. It has taken months to determine IFR, and guess what itís way lower than was projected. Even after the CDC published the data, the perception of the older incorrect data continues to be pervasive in the public discourse.



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« Last Edit: June 24, 2020, 10:57:57 PM by fuzzy math »