Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 675445 times)

former player

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8824
  • Location: Avalon
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5950 on: April 14, 2021, 09:16:28 AM »
We reopened restaurants and bars and resumed school sports in Michigan on Feb. 1, and expanded capacity in March 1. Life isn’t back to normal, much as we might wish it so.

https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-health-watch/coronavirus-tracker-what-michigan-needs-know-now

https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2020/05/16/tracking-michigan-covid-19-hospitalization-data-trends/

We never stopped any of that in Arkansas, except for the April-May 2020 timeframe. Our hospitalizations peaked in the second week of January, right after the holidays as to be expected and have trended down non-stop since. Our 7 day moving average for the entire state is ~200 hospitalizations right now from 1300 in January. It seems to be completely random across states. I don't know why a state like California that has been so strict is no better off case wise than a state like Texas. It's odd to me.

The only rational explanation I have is that the spread isn't happening in schools, restaurants, and bars. Instead it's happening at local gatherings and people across all states haven't stopped gathering. All the people that I know that contracted it either worked essential jobs (a lot of labor) or got it from friends and/or family at household gatherings. I don't know anyone that can trace it back to going out to lunch or dinner to eat or from their kids that got it playing soccer or baseball.
Lots of labouring jobs in Cali, lots of population density, lots of overcrowded housing, lots of international travel bringing in variants  - just some of the variants to be taken into account.  Cali might have been a lot worse.

mizzourah2006

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1063
  • Location: NWA
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5951 on: April 14, 2021, 09:28:01 AM »
We reopened restaurants and bars and resumed school sports in Michigan on Feb. 1, and expanded capacity in March 1. Life isn’t back to normal, much as we might wish it so.

https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-health-watch/coronavirus-tracker-what-michigan-needs-know-now

https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2020/05/16/tracking-michigan-covid-19-hospitalization-data-trends/

We never stopped any of that in Arkansas, except for the April-May 2020 timeframe. Our hospitalizations peaked in the second week of January, right after the holidays as to be expected and have trended down non-stop since. Our 7 day moving average for the entire state is ~200 hospitalizations right now from 1300 in January. It seems to be completely random across states. I don't know why a state like California that has been so strict is no better off case wise than a state like Texas. It's odd to me.

The only rational explanation I have is that the spread isn't happening in schools, restaurants, and bars. Instead it's happening at local gatherings and people across all states haven't stopped gathering. All the people that I know that contracted it either worked essential jobs (a lot of labor) or got it from friends and/or family at household gatherings. I don't know anyone that can trace it back to going out to lunch or dinner to eat or from their kids that got it playing soccer or baseball.
As a data point Arkansas is ranked 33rd for population in the United States

Arkansas is
#16 for deaths by population
#10 for cases by population

Texas is ranked 2nd for population
23rd for deaths by population
27th for cases by population


California is ranked #1 for population
31st for deaths by population
33rd for cases by population




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I wonder what this would look like if you removed the prison population from each state. For whatever reason Arkansas' prisons got hit pretty hard.

https://wreg.com/news/arkansas-prisons-in-top-10-for-covid-19-cases-deaths-per-capita-in-the-country/


Davnasty

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2793
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5952 on: April 14, 2021, 09:29:53 AM »
We reopened restaurants and bars and resumed school sports in Michigan on Feb. 1, and expanded capacity in March 1. Life isn’t back to normal, much as we might wish it so.

https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-health-watch/coronavirus-tracker-what-michigan-needs-know-now

https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2020/05/16/tracking-michigan-covid-19-hospitalization-data-trends/

We never stopped any of that in Arkansas, except for the April-May 2020 timeframe. Our hospitalizations peaked in the second week of January, right after the holidays as to be expected and have trended down non-stop since. Our 7 day moving average for the entire state is ~200 hospitalizations right now from 1300 in January. It seems to be completely random across states. I don't know why a state like California that has been so strict is no better off case wise than a state like Texas. It's odd to me.

The only rational explanation I have is that the spread isn't happening in schools, restaurants, and bars. Instead it's happening at local gatherings and people across all states haven't stopped gathering. All the people that I know that contracted it either worked essential jobs (a lot of labor) or got it from friends and/or family at household gatherings. I don't know anyone that can trace it back to going out to lunch or dinner to eat or from their kids that got it playing soccer or baseball.
As a data point Arkansas is ranked 33rd for population in the United States

Arkansas is
#16 for deaths by population
#10 for cases by population

Texas is ranked 2nd for population
23rd for deaths by population
27th for cases by population


California is ranked #1 for population
31st for deaths by population
33rd for cases by population

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

In addition, these aren't apples to apples comparisons. There are lots of variables besides restrictions. For example, population density.

Arkansas: 57/sqmi
Texas: 101/sqmi
California: 246/sqmi

https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_population_density

Which still doesn't tell the whole story. What really matters is some combination of how many people live close together and how close they live together. A state with large cities and wide open spaces could have similar people/sqmi to a completely rural state with even population distribution. Perhaps some data analysts will come up with (or already have) a of "pandemic susceptibility index" based on population distribution. I'd be interested if anyone knows of such a thing. In any case, I'd bet a dollar that California's index rating would be wayyy higher than Arkansas'.

mizzourah2006

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1063
  • Location: NWA
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5953 on: April 14, 2021, 09:36:35 AM »
We reopened restaurants and bars and resumed school sports in Michigan on Feb. 1, and expanded capacity in March 1. Life isn’t back to normal, much as we might wish it so.

https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-health-watch/coronavirus-tracker-what-michigan-needs-know-now

https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2020/05/16/tracking-michigan-covid-19-hospitalization-data-trends/

We never stopped any of that in Arkansas, except for the April-May 2020 timeframe. Our hospitalizations peaked in the second week of January, right after the holidays as to be expected and have trended down non-stop since. Our 7 day moving average for the entire state is ~200 hospitalizations right now from 1300 in January. It seems to be completely random across states. I don't know why a state like California that has been so strict is no better off case wise than a state like Texas. It's odd to me.

The only rational explanation I have is that the spread isn't happening in schools, restaurants, and bars. Instead it's happening at local gatherings and people across all states haven't stopped gathering. All the people that I know that contracted it either worked essential jobs (a lot of labor) or got it from friends and/or family at household gatherings. I don't know anyone that can trace it back to going out to lunch or dinner to eat or from their kids that got it playing soccer or baseball.
As a data point Arkansas is ranked 33rd for population in the United States

Arkansas is
#16 for deaths by population
#10 for cases by population

Texas is ranked 2nd for population
23rd for deaths by population
27th for cases by population


California is ranked #1 for population
31st for deaths by population
33rd for cases by population

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

In addition, these aren't apples to apples comparisons. There are lots of variables besides restrictions. For example, population density.

Arkansas: 57/sqmi
Texas: 101/sqmi
California: 246/sqmi

https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_population_density

Which still doesn't tell the whole story. What really matters is some combination of how many people live close together and how close they live together. A state with large cities and wide open spaces could have similar people/sqmi to a completely rural state with even population distribution. Perhaps some data analysts will come up with (or already have) a of "pandemic susceptibility index" based on population distribution. I'd be interested if anyone knows of such a thing. In any case, I'd bet a dollar that California's index rating would be wayyy higher than Arkansas'.

I'd agree, but what does that have to do with restaurants and kids sports? Are you saying that kids in California play sports closer to one another than kids in Arkansas? Or that restaurants are putting people closer to one another? I fully agree that it certainly has an impact, but I think it has to do with people living closer to one another and naturally interacting with one another, which isn't part of restaurants and kids sports. Now you could argue that the density could make any contractions in those situations more likely to spread given the density and I'd agree with that.

For what it's worth, while I may not live in a city like San Francisco I don't live in a random holler in Arkansas. We have population density where I live. Similar to that of the suburbs of a large metro like Saint Louis or Indy.

former player

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8824
  • Location: Avalon
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5954 on: April 14, 2021, 09:50:14 AM »
We reopened restaurants and bars and resumed school sports in Michigan on Feb. 1, and expanded capacity in March 1. Life isn’t back to normal, much as we might wish it so.

https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-health-watch/coronavirus-tracker-what-michigan-needs-know-now

https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2020/05/16/tracking-michigan-covid-19-hospitalization-data-trends/

We never stopped any of that in Arkansas, except for the April-May 2020 timeframe. Our hospitalizations peaked in the second week of January, right after the holidays as to be expected and have trended down non-stop since. Our 7 day moving average for the entire state is ~200 hospitalizations right now from 1300 in January. It seems to be completely random across states. I don't know why a state like California that has been so strict is no better off case wise than a state like Texas. It's odd to me.

The only rational explanation I have is that the spread isn't happening in schools, restaurants, and bars. Instead it's happening at local gatherings and people across all states haven't stopped gathering. All the people that I know that contracted it either worked essential jobs (a lot of labor) or got it from friends and/or family at household gatherings. I don't know anyone that can trace it back to going out to lunch or dinner to eat or from their kids that got it playing soccer or baseball.
As a data point Arkansas is ranked 33rd for population in the United States

Arkansas is
#16 for deaths by population
#10 for cases by population

Texas is ranked 2nd for population
23rd for deaths by population
27th for cases by population


California is ranked #1 for population
31st for deaths by population
33rd for cases by population

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

In addition, these aren't apples to apples comparisons. There are lots of variables besides restrictions. For example, population density.

Arkansas: 57/sqmi
Texas: 101/sqmi
California: 246/sqmi

https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_population_density

Which still doesn't tell the whole story. What really matters is some combination of how many people live close together and how close they live together. A state with large cities and wide open spaces could have similar people/sqmi to a completely rural state with even population distribution. Perhaps some data analysts will come up with (or already have) a of "pandemic susceptibility index" based on population distribution. I'd be interested if anyone knows of such a thing. In any case, I'd bet a dollar that California's index rating would be wayyy higher than Arkansas'.

I'd agree, but what does that have to do with restaurants and kids sports? Are you saying that kids in California play sports closer to one another than kids in Arkansas? Or that restaurants are putting people closer to one another? I fully agree that it certainly has an impact, but I think it has to do with people living closer to one another and naturally interacting with one another, which isn't part of restaurants and kids sports. Now you could argue that the density could make any contractions in those situations more likely to spread given the density and I'd agree with that.

For what it's worth, while I may not live in a city like San Francisco I don't live in a random holler in Arkansas. We have population density where I live. Similar to that of the suburbs of a large metro like Saint Louis or Indy.
Suburbs by definition are not population dense.  If they were you might have decent public transport options rather than everyone driving everywhere.

Davnasty

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2793
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5955 on: April 14, 2021, 09:57:05 AM »
We reopened restaurants and bars and resumed school sports in Michigan on Feb. 1, and expanded capacity in March 1. Life isn’t back to normal, much as we might wish it so.

https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-health-watch/coronavirus-tracker-what-michigan-needs-know-now

https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2020/05/16/tracking-michigan-covid-19-hospitalization-data-trends/

We never stopped any of that in Arkansas, except for the April-May 2020 timeframe. Our hospitalizations peaked in the second week of January, right after the holidays as to be expected and have trended down non-stop since. Our 7 day moving average for the entire state is ~200 hospitalizations right now from 1300 in January. It seems to be completely random across states. I don't know why a state like California that has been so strict is no better off case wise than a state like Texas. It's odd to me.

The only rational explanation I have is that the spread isn't happening in schools, restaurants, and bars. Instead it's happening at local gatherings and people across all states haven't stopped gathering. All the people that I know that contracted it either worked essential jobs (a lot of labor) or got it from friends and/or family at household gatherings. I don't know anyone that can trace it back to going out to lunch or dinner to eat or from their kids that got it playing soccer or baseball.
As a data point Arkansas is ranked 33rd for population in the United States

Arkansas is
#16 for deaths by population
#10 for cases by population

Texas is ranked 2nd for population
23rd for deaths by population
27th for cases by population


California is ranked #1 for population
31st for deaths by population
33rd for cases by population

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

In addition, these aren't apples to apples comparisons. There are lots of variables besides restrictions. For example, population density.

Arkansas: 57/sqmi
Texas: 101/sqmi
California: 246/sqmi

https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_population_density

Which still doesn't tell the whole story. What really matters is some combination of how many people live close together and how close they live together. A state with large cities and wide open spaces could have similar people/sqmi to a completely rural state with even population distribution. Perhaps some data analysts will come up with (or already have) a of "pandemic susceptibility index" based on population distribution. I'd be interested if anyone knows of such a thing. In any case, I'd bet a dollar that California's index rating would be wayyy higher than Arkansas'.

I'd agree, but what does that have to do with restaurants and kids sports? Are you saying that kids in California play sports closer to one another than kids in Arkansas? Or that restaurants are putting people closer to one another? I fully agree that it certainly has an impact, but I think it has to do with people living closer to one another and naturally interacting with one another, which isn't part of restaurants and kids sports. Now you could argue that the density could make any contractions in those situations more likely to spread given the density and I'd agree with that.

For what it's worth, while I may not live in a city like San Francisco I don't live in a random holler in Arkansas. We have population density where I live. Similar to that of the suburbs of a large metro like Saint Louis or Indy.

Where you live is not relevant. The population in Arkansas is far less dense than California.

Yes, I think the bolded argument is a given. The comment about kids playing sports closer together is a distraction, obviously I wasn't saying that.

Restaurants and kids sports aren't the only ways in which policy was different between CA and AR, not sure why you singled those out. My point was that we might have expected infection rates in California to be much higher than in Arkansas based on population density and the other variables that formerplayer just mentioned, yet they're actually higher in Arkansas. This seems like pretty strong evidence that public policy made a difference in the rate at which people got sick and died.


Davnasty

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2793
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5956 on: April 14, 2021, 10:17:34 AM »
We reopened restaurants and bars and resumed school sports in Michigan on Feb. 1, and expanded capacity in March 1. Life isn’t back to normal, much as we might wish it so.

https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-health-watch/coronavirus-tracker-what-michigan-needs-know-now

https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2020/05/16/tracking-michigan-covid-19-hospitalization-data-trends/

We never stopped any of that in Arkansas, except for the April-May 2020 timeframe. Our hospitalizations peaked in the second week of January, right after the holidays as to be expected and have trended down non-stop since. Our 7 day moving average for the entire state is ~200 hospitalizations right now from 1300 in January. It seems to be completely random across states. I don't know why a state like California that has been so strict is no better off case wise than a state like Texas. It's odd to me.

The only rational explanation I have is that the spread isn't happening in schools, restaurants, and bars. Instead it's happening at local gatherings and people across all states haven't stopped gathering. All the people that I know that contracted it either worked essential jobs (a lot of labor) or got it from friends and/or family at household gatherings. I don't know anyone that can trace it back to going out to lunch or dinner to eat or from their kids that got it playing soccer or baseball.
As a data point Arkansas is ranked 33rd for population in the United States

Arkansas is
#16 for deaths by population
#10 for cases by population

Texas is ranked 2nd for population
23rd for deaths by population
27th for cases by population


California is ranked #1 for population
31st for deaths by population
33rd for cases by population

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I wonder what this would look like if you removed the prison population from each state. For whatever reason Arkansas' prisons got hit pretty hard.

https://wreg.com/news/arkansas-prisons-in-top-10-for-covid-19-cases-deaths-per-capita-in-the-country/

If all of the Covid in prison cases were removed from Arkansas data it would move their ranking from #11 to #14#13, and that's without adjusting for prison cases in other states.

Based on:

State rankings by cases/100,000: https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/states-ranked-by-confirmed-covid-19-cases-july-1.html
Updated data from the Marshall Project cited in your article: https://www.themarshallproject.org/2020/05/01/a-state-by-state-look-at-coronavirus-in-prisons
« Last Edit: April 14, 2021, 10:34:23 AM by Davnasty »

mizzourah2006

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1063
  • Location: NWA
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5957 on: April 14, 2021, 10:31:51 AM »
I think where you live is important. Sure across the entire state you're definitely right. But in the densely populated areas of both states I think the evidence is a bit less obvious. I referenced restaurants and sports because the original person I responded had said they believed the up-tick in cases was a result of restaurants, bars, and kids sports opening back up in early March. I'm not denying that population density is important, I'm simply saying it's hard to know how much worse California would have been if things like restaurants, schools, and kids sports had been allowed to happen. I think to your point it's likely that it did help reduce some spread, but was it worth it keeping schools closed, not allowing kids to engage in extra-curriculurs?

If you look at deaths per million it looks like this:

California:
LA County: 2,341
Riverside County: 1,823
San Bernardino County: 2,061
San Diego County: 1,085
Orange County: 1,527
Santa Clara County: 1,039
Kern County: 1,451

Arkansas:
Pulaski County: 1,628
Washington County: 1,442
Benton County: 1,469
Sebastian County: 2,144
Craighead County: 1,604

If you look at it strictly like this it's hard to ignore the impact that SES has on deaths in either state.

Do you disagree with my earlier hypothesis that it's likely that the spread is mostly coming from small gatherings outside of restaurants, schools, kids sporting events, and bars? Do you think that Californians' were better at avoiding those gatherings than say Texans' or Arkansans'? I'm honestly curious. I know that my friends have all been pretty intense about the virus. Many of them only left their house to go grocery shopping, that's it. I have one set of friends that still doesn't want to meetup indoors even if everyone is vaccinated. We used to hang out every weekend and he suggested to me that maybe in June we could do an outdoor thing. I find it a bit odd as he sends his kids to daycare each day, but hey. You do you.

@Davnasty thank you for doing the legwork to answer my question about prisons. I just remember last year there was a lot of discussion in the state at how bad the outbreaks in the prison system were.
« Last Edit: April 14, 2021, 10:44:02 AM by mizzourah2006 »

Davnasty

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2793
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5958 on: April 14, 2021, 11:20:40 AM »
Do you disagree with my earlier hypothesis that it's likely that the spread is mostly coming from small gatherings outside of restaurants, schools, kids sporting events, and bars?

I don't agree or disagree, because I don't think I have the data or knowledge to make such claims. I put my trust in the people who do this stuff for a living. Big picture - I believe politicians in California are more likely to listen to those people than politicians in Arkansas.

I'm really not trying to argue specific facts, my goal in commenting was to show that shoot from the hip hypotheses are generally going to leave out important information. Where there are holes in the data, we tend to fill them with our biases.

frugalnacho

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5055
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Metro Detroit
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5959 on: April 14, 2021, 11:30:44 AM »
I think the narrative about lockdowns working or not working based on what various states have done is misleading.  When michigan locked down a bunch of businesses just decided to stay open anyway by deeming themselves essential.  Some restaurants are opened every possible minute they are legally allowed, and others don't.  The culver's by me has not been open to inside dining for over a year now, not because of lockdowns but because they don't want to open to inside patrons.  Other establishments are absolutely swarming and are definitely unsafe.  Some establishments opened to "outdoor" dining since they weren't allowed to have indoor dining.  But it was windy and snowy, so they put up plastic walls and roofs.  And it was cold so they put portable heaters.  So now you have an "outdoor" dining area that is heated and has walls and a roof.  It's unclear to me how a virus could spread rampant inside a bar with walls, roof, and heat, but won't spread rampant in an "outside" area with walls, roof, and heat.  And even when restaurants and bars were forcibly shut down, that didn't mean people listened to the advice of healthcare professionals.  Many people thought/still think the entire thing is a hoax and make fun of anyone taking any precautions.  I'm sure there are people being overly cautious in each state, as well as people believing it's a hoax in each state.  When lockdowns aren't actually enforced I don't know how you can get an apples to apples comparison of any two states. 

OtherJen

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5267
  • Location: Metro Detroit
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5960 on: April 14, 2021, 11:32:28 AM »
Do you disagree with my earlier hypothesis that it's likely that the spread is mostly coming from small gatherings outside of restaurants, schools, kids sporting events, and bars?

I don't agree or disagree, because I don't think I have the data or knowledge to make such claims. I put my trust in the people who do this stuff for a living. Big picture - I believe politicians in California are more likely to listen to those people than politicians in Arkansas.

I'm really not trying to argue specific facts, my goal in commenting was to show that shoot from the hip hypotheses are generally going to leave out important information. Where there are holes in the data, we tend to fill them with our biases.

I second Davnasty's post. Although I am a trained scientist and used to work in an epidemiology and public health research department at a major medical system, those are not my fields of expertise (my training is in biomedical science, specifically immunology). However, I trust the experts in those fields to do their jobs and be better informed than those of us who are non-experts. They're adults; they aren't making tough calls to punish people or ruin their fun.

Both the CDC and the state health department are begging Michigan's state government to shut down indoor dining and schools, including sports, before our healthcare systems crash. Even the GOP leaders in the state congress are drafting legislature to mandate indoor dining closures once the percent positive test rate crosses a threshold (which it has done for at least 2 weeks now).

frugalnacho

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5055
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Metro Detroit
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5961 on: April 14, 2021, 12:19:51 PM »
I usually check worldometer for covid stats.  Looks like Michigan had a record number of new cases yesterday with 10,277, which beats our previous record of 10,140 set back around thanksgiving. 

Top is in?  Wait, wrong thread. 

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 23129
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5962 on: April 14, 2021, 12:31:06 PM »
I usually check worldometer for covid stats.  Looks like Michigan had a record number of new cases yesterday with 10,277, which beats our previous record of 10,140 set back around thanksgiving. 

Top is in?  Wait, wrong thread.

What's the deal with Michigan anyway?  Compared to most other countries, vaccines are raining from the sky in the US.  Hell, Florida and Texas have been doing everything they can to increase the number of covid infections and haven't been posting numbers like Michigan.

frugalnacho

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5055
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Metro Detroit
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5963 on: April 14, 2021, 12:58:06 PM »
Vaccines are raining from the sky.  All 4 parents and in laws are fully vaxed, I'm fully vaxed, my wife is getting her second dose tomorrow.  Everyone at my work that wants one is fully vaxed.  My sisters are partially vaxed.  Almost everyone I know in michigan has been able to get a vaccine over the last 2 months if they want one. 

But a lot of people somehow still don't believe in this.  They either think it's a hoax, or they think it's not a hoax but they still won't be getting a vaccine.  Aint putting no damn science up in my arm!  My work finally implemented a mask mandate early in December after we had a lot of cases in the plant.  That didn't last long and most people gradually stopped wearing them over the next few weeks.  At this point almost no one at work wears a mask, even though we technically still have a mandatory mask mandate as company policy.  Most of my coworkers scoffed at the idea of a vaccine, and I assume turned it down when they had the chance.  I assume my plant is not that atypical and is just full of normal people.

In short:




the_fixer

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1252
  • Location: Colorado
  • mind on my money money on my mind
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5964 on: April 14, 2021, 01:56:35 PM »
Vaccines are raining from the sky.  All 4 parents and in laws are fully vaxed, I'm fully vaxed, my wife is getting her second dose tomorrow.  Everyone at my work that wants one is fully vaxed.  My sisters are partially vaxed.  Almost everyone I know in michigan has been able to get a vaccine over the last 2 months if they want one. 

But a lot of people somehow still don't believe in this.  They either think it's a hoax, or they think it's not a hoax but they still won't be getting a vaccine.  Aint putting no damn science up in my arm!  My work finally implemented a mask mandate early in December after we had a lot of cases in the plant.  That didn't last long and most people gradually stopped wearing them over the next few weeks.  At this point almost no one at work wears a mask, even though we technically still have a mandatory mask mandate as company policy.  Most of my coworkers scoffed at the idea of a vaccine, and I assume turned it down when they had the chance.  I assume my plant is not that atypical and is just full of normal people.

In short:


I could swear we work for the same company sometimes.

SUCKS to be surrounded by anti vaccine conspiracy theory spewing dolts that make fun of you for wearing a mask and getting vaccinated.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

mizzourah2006

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1063
  • Location: NWA
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5965 on: April 14, 2021, 02:36:37 PM »
Do you disagree with my earlier hypothesis that it's likely that the spread is mostly coming from small gatherings outside of restaurants, schools, kids sporting events, and bars?

I don't agree or disagree, because I don't think I have the data or knowledge to make such claims. I put my trust in the people who do this stuff for a living. Big picture - I believe politicians in California are more likely to listen to those people than politicians in Arkansas.

I'm really not trying to argue specific facts, my goal in commenting was to show that shoot from the hip hypotheses are generally going to leave out important information. Where there are holes in the data, we tend to fill them with our biases.

I second Davnasty's post. Although I am a trained scientist and used to work in an epidemiology and public health research department at a major medical system, those are not my fields of expertise (my training is in biomedical science, specifically immunology). However, I trust the experts in those fields to do their jobs and be better informed than those of us who are non-experts. They're adults; they aren't making tough calls to punish people or ruin their fun.

Both the CDC and the state health department are begging Michigan's state government to shut down indoor dining and schools, including sports, before our healthcare systems crash. Even the GOP leaders in the state congress are drafting legislature to mandate indoor dining closures once the percent positive test rate crosses a threshold (which it has done for at least 2 weeks now).

fair enough. I will refrain from attempting to have a discussion here. I will only post peer-reviewed journal articles from now on.

OtherJen

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5267
  • Location: Metro Detroit
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5966 on: April 14, 2021, 02:50:45 PM »
Do you disagree with my earlier hypothesis that it's likely that the spread is mostly coming from small gatherings outside of restaurants, schools, kids sporting events, and bars?

I don't agree or disagree, because I don't think I have the data or knowledge to make such claims. I put my trust in the people who do this stuff for a living. Big picture - I believe politicians in California are more likely to listen to those people than politicians in Arkansas.

I'm really not trying to argue specific facts, my goal in commenting was to show that shoot from the hip hypotheses are generally going to leave out important information. Where there are holes in the data, we tend to fill them with our biases.

I second Davnasty's post. Although I am a trained scientist and used to work in an epidemiology and public health research department at a major medical system, those are not my fields of expertise (my training is in biomedical science, specifically immunology). However, I trust the experts in those fields to do their jobs and be better informed than those of us who are non-experts. They're adults; they aren't making tough calls to punish people or ruin their fun.

Both the CDC and the state health department are begging Michigan's state government to shut down indoor dining and schools, including sports, before our healthcare systems crash. Even the GOP leaders in the state congress are drafting legislature to mandate indoor dining closures once the percent positive test rate crosses a threshold (which it has done for at least 2 weeks now).

fair enough. I will refrain from attempting to have a discussion here. I will only post peer-reviewed journal articles from now on.

Literally no one but you set that bar here, but have at it. What's the minimum impact factor?

jehovasfitness23

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 257
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5967 on: April 14, 2021, 02:56:28 PM »
An observation: this thread was started on 2020-03-17.

It's been 13 months of just two more weeks.

+1 million.

Imprisoning the world should never be a viable solution. I'm afraid of the precedent we've set for the next time something like this happens.

Oh, please, please come off it. 575K Americans have died, nearly 3 Million worldwide, and you are complaining that the world was too restrictive? Do you have any concept of how many would have died if no restrictions were in place at all?  If you got severely sick, I'm sure you wouldn't hesitate at all to report to the Emergency Room when you needed it, as long as the ER and Hospital wasn't overflowing and people weren't dying in the streets, of course.

exactly. the reason it's not far worse is b/c of the restrictions people say don't work LOL

You don't know that. (Florida vs. California response and outcomes)

Look, you can keep yourself locked up all you want and that's your prerogative. Some of us actually want a return to normal life.
'

LOL thinking lockdowns don't work. Imagine locking people inside their homes like Wuhan did. Viruses don't spread so easily then.

Now granted, I think many who claim lockdowns don't work are mistakenly arguing 2 different things. Following protocols is clearly what is meant by lockdowns and restriction. If you want to argue compliance that's another sub topic

jehovasfitness23

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 257
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5968 on: April 14, 2021, 03:01:04 PM »
Opening venues that allow people to be indoors maskless is reckless. Bars and indoor dining, I can't imagine why someone would want to risk their life or their loved ones over either of those.

Eat outdoors or take it home, christ sake there's a deadly virus out there that spreads easily indoors when maskless. add in poor ventilation and watch out.

waltworks

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5653
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5969 on: April 14, 2021, 03:21:02 PM »
My county hit 75% vaccinated last week (probably more now but they only update the website once a week for some reason) and there are now no more restrictions on anything. Many businesses are still requiring masks, but many aren't (it helps that ski season is over so the town won't be crowded again for a couple months when summer tourism starts). I can go work out at the rec center with no mask now, woot!

-W

Davnasty

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2793
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5970 on: April 14, 2021, 03:38:00 PM »
Do you disagree with my earlier hypothesis that it's likely that the spread is mostly coming from small gatherings outside of restaurants, schools, kids sporting events, and bars?

I don't agree or disagree, because I don't think I have the data or knowledge to make such claims. I put my trust in the people who do this stuff for a living. Big picture - I believe politicians in California are more likely to listen to those people than politicians in Arkansas.

I'm really not trying to argue specific facts, my goal in commenting was to show that shoot from the hip hypotheses are generally going to leave out important information. Where there are holes in the data, we tend to fill them with our biases.

I second Davnasty's post. Although I am a trained scientist and used to work in an epidemiology and public health research department at a major medical system, those are not my fields of expertise (my training is in biomedical science, specifically immunology). However, I trust the experts in those fields to do their jobs and be better informed than those of us who are non-experts. They're adults; they aren't making tough calls to punish people or ruin their fun.

Both the CDC and the state health department are begging Michigan's state government to shut down indoor dining and schools, including sports, before our healthcare systems crash. Even the GOP leaders in the state congress are drafting legislature to mandate indoor dining closures once the percent positive test rate crosses a threshold (which it has done for at least 2 weeks now).

fair enough. I will refrain from attempting to have a discussion here. I will only post peer-reviewed journal articles from now on.

I see nothing wrong with the discussion so far. As long as everyone is courteous and argues in good faith, you don't need to be an expert to have a meaningful conversation.

But I also think it's important to remember there are people who are trained to understand what's going on and they dedicate their full time jobs to it. If my conclusion is different than theirs, I should assume I'm wrong and do some more research to understand why. Unless of course I don't have time for that, in which case I'll acknowledge my ignorance and leave my opinion out of the discussion, which is what I did.

Do you disagree with my earlier hypothesis that it's likely that the spread is mostly coming from small gatherings outside of restaurants, schools, kids sporting events, and bars?

Actually I think I would like to respond to this now. While the word "mostly" here is pretty vague, I would more or less agree with your hypotheses. I also think that while most cases are spreading through small gatherings, we have evidence to suggest restaurants, schools, kids sporting events, and bars are also responsible for some amount of spread and when it spreads at these events between people who don't share a bubble, infected people then take it back to their bubble or "small gatherings", so it's more multiplicative than additive.

My personal opinion is that schools and kids sporting events should be opening up in most places, but indoor dining and bars should not, but that's based mostly on my feelings. I'm glad that's not my decision to make.
 

Kyle Schuant

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1314
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5971 on: April 15, 2021, 08:14:53 AM »
But I also think it's important to remember there are people who are trained to understand what's going on and they dedicate their full time jobs to it. If my conclusion is different than theirs, I should assume I'm wrong and do some more research to understand why.
The issues here are three.

Firstly, they might be experts in X, but not experts in Y. And in a society of millions of people, what you do to X will also affect Y. Governing for the public good is not about maximising things for X or Y, but balancing the two. But when the media is screaming about X, you may find that Y is entirely ignored.

As a non-covid example from Australia, a convicted violent criminal was out on parole. While out, he raped and murdered a woman, Jill Meagher. As she was an attractive middle-class woman, this occasioned much distress, and tens of thousands marched, demanding the government tighten up parole laws. So the government tightened up parole laws considerably. This has led to more aboriginal people in custody, which - without any particular malice or even incompetence from the police - has also led to more aboriginal people die in custody. And so tens of thousands march once more, demanding (among other things) the government loosen up parole laws.

By focusing on improving X, they made Y worse. Now, if X has become a big issue in the media and public discourse, this is unfortunately inevitable. The fact that someone is an expert in X is, then, irrelevant - we need experts in X and Y, so we can balance these considerations.

Secondly, we do not use only expertise to judge things when we're talking about the public good. If we did there would be no need for a free press or elections. Nor would we even have the requirement of consent for medical procedures. Just appoint some experts to handle things. But we don't do that, because when weighing X against Y, we decide which holds greater weight based on our personal and ideological values, our cultural history and so on. If I as an individual get a say in (for example) whether or not I am given chemo for liver cancer, should the general public not get a say in the public health measures to control a communicable respiratory disease?

Lastly, experts disagree with each-other. Often. For example, here in Australia the Chief Health Officer of Victoria advised widespread harsh long-term lockdowns. That of New South Wales did not. The Infection Control Group of the Commonwealth does not believe that aerosol transmission is a significant vector for the virus, the CHO of Victoria does.

When experts disagree, which one should we believe?

The deference to experts is intellectually lazy and profoundly anti-democratic.

Bloop Bloop Reloaded

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 757
  • Location: Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5972 on: April 15, 2021, 09:05:02 AM »
The other problem with deferring to experts is that experts' opinions become politicised - not necessarily by the experts themselves but by the people advocating for or opposing them.

And we - i.e. society and politicians - tend to over-rate certain risks and under-rate others, which explains why people amazingly under-rate the lifetime risk of dying from a car accident (in the US, this is 1 in 105), opioid use/overdose (crazily, over 1 in 100), and gun violence (1 in 300). These are all very substantial risks and put together these three causes far outweigh the lifetime covid risk, assuming we get covid under control so that it does not go on to kill more than 7 million Americans in the next 80 years.

Davnasty

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2793
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5973 on: April 15, 2021, 09:42:26 AM »
But I also think it's important to remember there are people who are trained to understand what's going on and they dedicate their full time jobs to it. If my conclusion is different than theirs, I should assume I'm wrong and do some more research to understand why.
The issues here are three.

Firstly, they might be experts in X, but not experts in Y. And in a society of millions of people, what you do to X will also affect Y. Governing for the public good is not about maximising things for X or Y, but balancing the two. But when the media is screaming about X, you may find that Y is entirely ignored.

As a non-covid example from Australia, a convicted violent criminal was out on parole. While out, he raped and murdered a woman, Jill Meagher. As she was an attractive middle-class woman, this occasioned much distress, and tens of thousands marched, demanding the government tighten up parole laws. So the government tightened up parole laws considerably. This has led to more aboriginal people in custody, which - without any particular malice or even incompetence from the police - has also led to more aboriginal people die in custody. And so tens of thousands march once more, demanding (among other things) the government loosen up parole laws.

By focusing on improving X, they made Y worse. Now, if X has become a big issue in the media and public discourse, this is unfortunately inevitable. The fact that someone is an expert in X is, then, irrelevant - we need experts in X and Y, so we can balance these considerations.

Secondly, we do not use only expertise to judge things when we're talking about the public good. If we did there would be no need for a free press or elections. Nor would we even have the requirement of consent for medical procedures. Just appoint some experts to handle things. But we don't do that, because when weighing X against Y, we decide which holds greater weight based on our personal and ideological values, our cultural history and so on. If I as an individual get a say in (for example) whether or not I am given chemo for liver cancer, should the general public not get a say in the public health measures to control a communicable respiratory disease?

Lastly, experts disagree with each-other. Often. For example, here in Australia the Chief Health Officer of Victoria advised widespread harsh long-term lockdowns. That of New South Wales did not. The Infection Control Group of the Commonwealth does not believe that aerosol transmission is a significant vector for the virus, the CHO of Victoria does.

When experts disagree, which one should we believe?

The deference to experts is intellectually lazy and profoundly anti-democratic.

Your comment has ignored the context of the conversation and mischaracterized what I've said.

I'm not suggesting we blindly follow experts, but rather if my conclusion based on the limited information I've gathered reading news articles and looking at at a few charts contradicts the conclusion of teams of researchers and data analysts, maybe I should spend some time trying to figure out why?

Most of the conversation preceding my comment has been based around the question: Are these specific measures effective?

My position has been to refute the use of statewide case counts to show the measures are ineffective because there are significant variables that need to be considered when looking at that data. I stand by my conclusion that 4x population density makes it more difficult to control the spread of viruses.

Davnasty

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2793
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5974 on: April 15, 2021, 09:59:29 AM »
The other problem with deferring to experts is that experts' opinions become politicised - not necessarily by the experts themselves but by the people advocating for or opposing them.

True enough, but that's not particularly relevant to the discussion we were having. Again, context is important. Researchers and public health organizations (not politicians) have reached consensus agreement that certain activities result in increased spread of the virus. Some posters here have reached a different conclusion. I'm suggesting they consider why that is.


OtherJen

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5267
  • Location: Metro Detroit
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5975 on: April 15, 2021, 02:33:59 PM »
Beaumont Health sets up triage tents outside some hospitals to manage COVID-19 surge (Bridge Michigan)

Beaumont Dearborn is the nearest local hospital. This is not encouraging.

Quote
Michigan's third COVID-19 surge is "like a runaway train," Dr. Nick Gilpin, Beaumont Health’s medical director of infection prevention and epidemiology, said Thursday.

More than 800 coronavirus patients fill all eight of the hospitals in the state's largest health care system, "taxing our staff and our resources," Gilpin said, yet there's no policy in place this time to restrict in-person dining, sports or schools, where the virus is known to spread.

It's left Beaumont in a place where it is beginning to put up triage tents outside some of its hospitals to manage the stress in its emergency rooms. Tents are up already at its Grosse Pointe hospital, Gilpin said.

Plans are in place to stand up similar curbside triage tents outside its Dearborn and Farmington Hills hospitals as the stress on the health system bears down, said Susan Grant, Beaumont Health's chief nursing officer.

The health system also is postponing some non-urgent surgeries and procedures that would require at least an overnight stay, such as knee replacements or knee reconstruction surgeries, on a case-by-case basis, Gilpin said.

With all of its hospitals at 90% to 95% capacity, Beaumont can't take much more, he said.

"If we continue to see COVID numbers rise, we'll have to make some accommodations, open up some additional beds," he said. "The challenge here ... is where are we going to get the staff from?

What the state outbreak data suggest is that in the past week, the largest proportion of new outbreaks statewide are attributable to K-12 schools and childcare programs (including sports programs; 30.1%), followed by workplaces in close, possibly poorly ventilated quarters (offices, manufacturing; 24.8%) and customer-facing settings (retail, restaurants; 18.8%). https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98163_98173_102057---,00.html

And yet, the schools are open, even though they're the top driver of new cases and kids are not eligible to receive any vaccines. Michigan at 'record high' for COVID-19 hospitalizations of children (Detroit Free Press)
« Last Edit: April 15, 2021, 05:57:29 PM by OtherJen »

Caoineag

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 663
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Michigan
    • My Journal
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5976 on: April 15, 2021, 05:24:29 PM »
I will say that every time an expert tries to claim that opening up schools won't be a problem because kids don't really spread it, I just shake my head in disbelief. Every parent knows that the number one source of illness in a house is their kid. My jaw actually dropped when they claimed 3 ft between kids wouldn't be a problem. Even if the kids aren't getting as sick as the adults, they are still carriers. Sheesh.

mm1970

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 10881
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5977 on: April 15, 2021, 05:53:14 PM »
Quote
But a lot of people somehow still don't believe in this.  They either think it's a hoax, or they think it's not a hoax but they still won't be getting a vaccine.

I have a friend in Michigan, and at least 3 classrooms in her kids' school have been quarantined for 2 weeks due to COVID.  Her kids were spared...but the contact tracers have found that the source was a kids' birthday party.

My friend is so nice.  "Those parents must feel horrible that the party caused all this."  I wish I had that much faith in people.

waltworks

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5653
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5978 on: April 15, 2021, 09:25:22 PM »
I will say that every time an expert tries to claim that opening up schools won't be a problem because kids don't really spread it, I just shake my head in disbelief. Every parent knows that the number one source of illness in a house is their kid. My jaw actually dropped when they claimed 3 ft between kids wouldn't be a problem. Even if the kids aren't getting as sick as the adults, they are still carriers. Sheesh.

To be fair, until the B117 variant, kids weren't spreading it. We had schools in person all year (and still do) and it was never a problem. Some teachers went on family Thanksgiving trips and such and spread it to each other, but there wasn't any kid to teacher or kid to kid transmission at school (this is in a relatively small district of 5000 students).

There have been a few kid to kid cases now, and the county health department was so surprised they had them all sequenced. Yup, B117. So that's probably the story.

-W

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

  • Guest
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5979 on: April 15, 2021, 09:54:09 PM »
I will say that every time an expert tries to claim that opening up schools won't be a problem because kids don't really spread it, I just shake my head in disbelief. Every parent knows that the number one source of illness in a house is their kid. My jaw actually dropped when they claimed 3 ft between kids wouldn't be a problem. Even if the kids aren't getting as sick as the adults, they are still carriers. Sheesh.

To be fair, until the B117 variant, kids weren't spreading it. We had schools in person all year (and still do) and it was never a problem. Some teachers went on family Thanksgiving trips and such and spread it to each other, but there wasn't any kid to teacher or kid to kid transmission at school (this is in a relatively small district of 5000 students).

There have been a few kid to kid cases now, and the county health department was so surprised they had them all sequenced. Yup, B117. So that's probably the story.

-W
Michigan is not the only state with a high proportion of B.117. Are they the only ones with relaxed K-12 guidelines? I doubt it since most (all?) simple explanations of covid hot-spots are eventually falsified. Tennessee has a higher proportion of B.117 and has no surge--on the other hand, maybe their schools are mostly not open?. Another candidate for falsification is Georgia (no surge, but school status here). Unclear without a lot more work, though, it is clear rates of spread are highly stochastic on shorter timescales and smaller geographies. There are likely a large number of variables at play which are not well understood and simple moralizing/attempts at explanations of local-level phenomena fail when applied globally. If the $1.5 trillion market cap google ever bothered to make unstructured web data more structured, it would be easier to answer such questions (but all they care about is tiling the world in ads).

jehovasfitness23

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 257
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5980 on: April 16, 2021, 05:41:26 AM »
My county hit 75% vaccinated last week (probably more now but they only update the website once a week for some reason) and there are now no more restrictions on anything. Many businesses are still requiring masks, but many aren't (it helps that ski season is over so the town won't be crowded again for a couple months when summer tourism starts). I can go work out at the rec center with no mask now, woot!

-W

Interesting. I love how counties think there are borders that keep other county people out LOL. All of a sudden that 75% goes down to 40% with travelers. It's like only people that live in a county can work there too and no outside workers  lol

waltworks

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5653
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5981 on: April 16, 2021, 07:19:54 AM »
My county hit 75% vaccinated last week (probably more now but they only update the website once a week for some reason) and there are now no more restrictions on anything. Many businesses are still requiring masks, but many aren't (it helps that ski season is over so the town won't be crowded again for a couple months when summer tourism starts). I can go work out at the rec center with no mask now, woot!

-W

Interesting. I love how counties think there are borders that keep other county people out LOL. All of a sudden that 75% goes down to 40% with travelers. It's like only people that live in a county can work there too and no outside workers  lol

Well, sure, but there's nobody but locals in town once ski season ends (which was a week ago). It's a ghost town. The county health director was very clear that he didn't anticipate any problems going forward, by the time summer tourist season arrives the whole country will be vaccinated.

And before you ask, yes, we made a specific effort to vaccinate all the people who commute here to work. They have all had the chance at a vaccine as well now.

Could some random out of town people give it to each other while they're in town, theoretically? Sure. But the odds are very, very low, to the point where I don't see why it's worth being concerned about.

-W
« Last Edit: April 16, 2021, 07:25:43 AM by waltworks »

former player

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8824
  • Location: Avalon
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5982 on: April 16, 2021, 08:54:07 AM »
My county hit 75% vaccinated last week (probably more now but they only update the website once a week for some reason) and there are now no more restrictions on anything. Many businesses are still requiring masks, but many aren't (it helps that ski season is over so the town won't be crowded again for a couple months when summer tourism starts). I can go work out at the rec center with no mask now, woot!

-W

Interesting. I love how counties think there are borders that keep other county people out LOL. All of a sudden that 75% goes down to 40% with travelers. It's like only people that live in a county can work there too and no outside workers  lol

Well, sure, but there's nobody but locals in town once ski season ends (which was a week ago). It's a ghost town. The county health director was very clear that he didn't anticipate any problems going forward, by the time summer tourist season arrives the whole country will be vaccinated.

And before you ask, yes, we made a specific effort to vaccinate all the people who commute here to work. They have all had the chance at a vaccine as well now.

Could some random out of town people give it to each other while they're in town, theoretically? Sure. But the odds are very, very low, to the point where I don't see why it's worth being concerned about.

-W
It might be harder to keep out than you think -

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/new-zealand-zero-covid-transmission?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB

waltworks

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5653
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5983 on: April 16, 2021, 09:00:45 AM »
Yeah, but practically everyone here is vaccinated. We don't need to keep it out.

NZ has basically nobody vaccinated. Different situation.

-W

Cranky

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3842
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5984 on: April 16, 2021, 09:34:44 AM »
Opening venues that allow people to be indoors maskless is reckless. Bars and indoor dining, I can't imagine why someone would want to risk their life or their loved ones over either of those.

Eat outdoors or take it home, christ sake there's a deadly virus out there that spreads easily indoors when maskless. add in poor ventilation and watch out.

I'm also incredibly tired of hearing the local bars and restaurants complain about how they can't hire enough staff because people are getting sooooooo much unemployment & stimulus money. I'm pretty sure that the solution to that is to pay your employees more money.

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 23129
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5985 on: April 16, 2021, 09:47:10 AM »
Opening venues that allow people to be indoors maskless is reckless. Bars and indoor dining, I can't imagine why someone would want to risk their life or their loved ones over either of those.

Eat outdoors or take it home, christ sake there's a deadly virus out there that spreads easily indoors when maskless. add in poor ventilation and watch out.

I'm also incredibly tired of hearing the local bars and restaurants complain about how they can't hire enough staff because people are getting sooooooo much unemployment & stimulus money. I'm pretty sure that the solution to that is to pay your employees more money.

More likely, they'll suggest leaving a 40 or 60% tip . . . after all, tips have been covering for management underpaying restaurant and bar employees for decades now, haven't they?

OtherJen

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5267
  • Location: Metro Detroit
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5986 on: April 16, 2021, 11:08:25 AM »
Opening venues that allow people to be indoors maskless is reckless. Bars and indoor dining, I can't imagine why someone would want to risk their life or their loved ones over either of those.

Eat outdoors or take it home, christ sake there's a deadly virus out there that spreads easily indoors when maskless. add in poor ventilation and watch out.

I'm also incredibly tired of hearing the local bars and restaurants complain about how they can't hire enough staff because people are getting sooooooo much unemployment & stimulus money. I'm pretty sure that the solution to that is to pay your employees more money.

More likely, they'll suggest leaving a 40 or 60% tip . . . after all, tips have been covering for management underpaying restaurant and bar employees for decades now, haven't they?

Yes. I made $2.65/hour plus tips as a waitress 20 years ago. I think minimum restaurant wage has been bumped up about $1 since then. It really sucked on slow nights (i.e., no tips).

scottish

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2716
  • Location: Ottawa
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5987 on: April 16, 2021, 03:42:35 PM »
Sounds like the police are going to start enforcing the quarantine rules in Ontario a bit more seriously.

We've also taken the same step we did last year - shut down access to public parks while keeping factories and construction sites open.

This is beginning to get on my nerves.   First, enforcement should have been a priority weeks ago.    Second, we should be restricting activities that spread the virus, not activities that are convenient to restrict.    Am I wrong?   Is there a lot of covid transmission in public parks?

RetiredAt63

  • CMTO 2023 Attendees
  • Senior Mustachian
  • *
  • Posts: 20747
  • Location: Eastern Ontario, Canada
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5988 on: April 16, 2021, 04:45:46 PM »
Sounds like the police are going to start enforcing the quarantine rules in Ontario a bit more seriously.

We've also taken the same step we did last year - shut down access to public parks while keeping factories and construction sites open.

This is beginning to get on my nerves.   First, enforcement should have been a priority weeks ago.    Second, we should be restricting activities that spread the virus, not activities that are convenient to restrict.    Am I wrong?   Is there a lot of covid transmission in public parks?

Giving paid sick leave would be a huge help.   It is blazingly obvious that part of the reason factories etc. are major areas of concern is that people go to work even if they aren't well, because no pay otherwise.  The feds supplied money for that, I thought, but our Premier in his wisdom doesn't seem to be be using this tactic.

Alas my provincial riding is already not Conservative, so not able to help vote him out next time. Drat.

MudPuppy

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1468
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5989 on: April 16, 2021, 05:03:52 PM »
Sounds like the police are going to start enforcing the quarantine rules in Ontario a bit more seriously.

We've also taken the same step we did last year - shut down access to public parks while keeping factories and construction sites open.

This is beginning to get on my nerves.   First, enforcement should have been a priority weeks ago.    Second, we should be restricting activities that spread the virus, not activities that are convenient to restrict.    Am I wrong?   Is there a lot of covid transmission in public parks?

I think it’s about minimizing economic and infrastructure hardships. Parks are voluntary. And would require a lot of patrolling to enforce. Plus then city/state owned parks could potentially deal with people trying to sue because no one happened to be there when Covid Carlton was spitting loogies on the play equipment and now Baby Brenda is in the hospital.

ysette9

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8930
  • Age: 2020
  • Location: Bay Area at heart living in the PNW
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5990 on: April 16, 2021, 07:20:10 PM »
Given now that we know more about how Covid transmits (sustained close contact, especially indoors with no air circulation) and doesn’t transmit (outside, masked, good air circulation, not from surfaces) you would think they would be doing whatever they can to encourage people to recreate outdoors.

deborah

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 15966
  • Age: 14
  • Location: Australia or another awesome area
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5991 on: April 16, 2021, 09:33:38 PM »
But I also think it's important to remember there are people who are trained to understand what's going on and they dedicate their full time jobs to it. If my conclusion is different than theirs, I should assume I'm wrong and do some more research to understand why.
The issues here are three.

Firstly, they might be experts in X, but not experts in Y. And in a society of millions of people, what you do to X will also affect Y. Governing for the public good is not about maximising things for X or Y, but balancing the two. But when the media is screaming about X, you may find that Y is entirely ignored.

As a non-covid example from Australia, a convicted violent criminal was out on parole. While out, he raped and murdered a woman, Jill Meagher. As she was an attractive middle-class woman, this occasioned much distress, and tens of thousands marched, demanding the government tighten up parole laws. So the government tightened up parole laws considerably. This has led to more aboriginal people in custody, which - without any particular malice or even incompetence from the police - has also led to more aboriginal people die in custody. And so tens of thousands march once more, demanding (among other things) the government loosen up parole laws.

By focusing on improving X, they made Y worse. Now, if X has become a big issue in the media and public discourse, this is unfortunately inevitable. The fact that someone is an expert in X is, then, irrelevant - we need experts in X and Y, so we can balance these considerations.

Secondly, we do not use only expertise to judge things when we're talking about the public good. If we did there would be no need for a free press or elections. Nor would we even have the requirement of consent for medical procedures. Just appoint some experts to handle things. But we don't do that, because when weighing X against Y, we decide which holds greater weight based on our personal and ideological values, our cultural history and so on. If I as an individual get a say in (for example) whether or not I am given chemo for liver cancer, should the general public not get a say in the public health measures to control a communicable respiratory disease?

Lastly, experts disagree with each-other. Often. For example, here in Australia the Chief Health Officer of Victoria advised widespread harsh long-term lockdowns. That of New South Wales did not. The Infection Control Group of the Commonwealth does not believe that aerosol transmission is a significant vector for the virus, the CHO of Victoria does.

When experts disagree, which one should we believe?

The deference to experts is intellectually lazy and profoundly anti-democratic.
NSW and Victoria are quite interesting examples. Liberal (read republicans if you’re not from Australia) governments in both states destroyed both health systems (Kennett in Victoria and the current one in NSW), but in different ways, while trying to privatise them. NSW retained its tracing ability, the Victorian one was smashed. Thus, NSW could rely on theirs and have fewer restrictions during the pandemic because they could find pretty much every case. Victoria had to have more extreme restrictions because they couldn’t. If the health officials switched states, they would also switch their advice.

Bloop Bloop Reloaded

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 757
  • Location: Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5992 on: April 16, 2021, 09:53:36 PM »
Victoria made mistakes due to misguided kindness. We hired untrained hotel security guards from non-preferred contractors because we saw it as a chance to increase diversity and give marginalised people a go. We didn't go hard on contact tracing initially (i.e. we let people lie about their whereabouts) because, um I'm not sure. It's quite okay to give people an amnesty so that they don't feel obliged to lie to contact tracers, but to then not penalise people who still lied to contact tracers after getting the amnesty was toothless.

We ended up in a situation where people doing bad things (flouting restrictions), if caught WITH covid, were given full amnesty for contact tracing purposes; but those caught WITHOUT covid were given the usual fine! And now people who can't afford the fines are getting off whereas those who could afford and did pay the fines have had to suck up the financial impact. Talk about a system of perverse incentives.

frugalnacho

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5055
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Metro Detroit
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5993 on: April 16, 2021, 10:39:20 PM »
My brother in law tested positive today.

elaine amj

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5548
  • Location: Ontario
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5994 on: April 17, 2021, 12:47:41 AM »



I think it’s about minimizing economic and infrastructure hardships. Parks are voluntary. And would require a lot of patrolling to enforce. Plus then city/state owned parks could potentially deal with people trying to sue because no one happened to be there when Covid Carlton was spitting loogies on the play equipment and now Baby Brenda is in the hospital.

I wonder if it is also to stop families from having playground playdates and gathering together. Even outdoors.

I dunno - but we have a whole month more to go and I am really hoping case counts go down drastically.  My family will stay pretty much locked down regardless but I am longing to see some end in sight.


Sent from my VCE-AL00 using Tapatalk


Zamboni

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3882
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5995 on: April 17, 2021, 01:53:38 AM »
In just the past week, my kids high school had six new positive cases reported to them for students on the school grounds. This is with a huge percentage of the students still in completely online learning. The only kids ever at the school are athletes (for practice/games only) and the ~10% of students who opted to go back to in-person learning a month ago.

So ridiculous. At least they stopped attaching the silly "enhanced cleaning measures" boilerplate paragraphs to these notification emails.

The article about New Zealand's contact tracing was very interesting. Thank you for posting that, former player.

scottish

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2716
  • Location: Ottawa
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5996 on: April 17, 2021, 08:31:13 AM »
Victoria made mistakes due to misguided kindness. We hired untrained hotel security guards from non-preferred contractors because we saw it as a chance to increase diversity and give marginalised people a go. We didn't go hard on contact tracing initially (i.e. we let people lie about their whereabouts) because, um I'm not sure. It's quite okay to give people an amnesty so that they don't feel obliged to lie to contact tracers, but to then not penalise people who still lied to contact tracers after getting the amnesty was toothless.

We ended up in a situation where people doing bad things (flouting restrictions), if caught WITH covid, were given full amnesty for contact tracing purposes; but those caught WITHOUT covid were given the usual fine! And now people who can't afford the fines are getting off whereas those who could afford and did pay the fines have had to suck up the financial impact. Talk about a system of perverse incentives.

Yes, the Canadian rules seem a bit like that.    If you arrive at an international airport, you're required to go to a government approved hotel and quarantine at your expense for several days.    However, if you ignore this direction and get in a taxi and go home, the worst that will happen is a summary offence with a fine less than the cost of the hotel stay.

This isn't really misguided kindness though, it seems to be what economics might call reverse incentives, where you have an incentive to do the wrong thing.    I'm sure it's not intentional though.   How could a government bureaucrat be expected to compare the two alternatives before issuing the regulations?

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 23129
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5997 on: April 17, 2021, 12:46:02 PM »
Victoria made mistakes due to misguided kindness. We hired untrained hotel security guards from non-preferred contractors because we saw it as a chance to increase diversity and give marginalised people a go. We didn't go hard on contact tracing initially (i.e. we let people lie about their whereabouts) because, um I'm not sure. It's quite okay to give people an amnesty so that they don't feel obliged to lie to contact tracers, but to then not penalise people who still lied to contact tracers after getting the amnesty was toothless.

We ended up in a situation where people doing bad things (flouting restrictions), if caught WITH covid, were given full amnesty for contact tracing purposes; but those caught WITHOUT covid were given the usual fine! And now people who can't afford the fines are getting off whereas those who could afford and did pay the fines have had to suck up the financial impact. Talk about a system of perverse incentives.

Yes, the Canadian rules seem a bit like that.    If you arrive at an international airport, you're required to go to a government approved hotel and quarantine at your expense for several days.    However, if you ignore this direction and get in a taxi and go home, the worst that will happen is a summary offence with a fine less than the cost of the hotel stay.

This isn't really misguided kindness though, it seems to be what economics might call reverse incentives, where you have an incentive to do the wrong thing.    I'm sure it's not intentional though.   How could a government bureaucrat be expected to compare the two alternatives before issuing the regulations?

If we gave a fuck about controlling covid there wouldn't be personal recreational travel of any kind . . . which makes enforcing rules an awful lot easier, and the rules themselves an awful lot clearer.  But the we wouldn't get to brag about having every covid variant imported to our province and currently running amok.  So y'know . . . Pretty hard to swallow those kind of consequences.

RetiredAt63

  • CMTO 2023 Attendees
  • Senior Mustachian
  • *
  • Posts: 20747
  • Location: Eastern Ontario, Canada
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5998 on: April 17, 2021, 03:09:12 PM »
This is well worth reading.
https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/how-did-it-come-to-this/?fbclid=IwAR1RjKFDDHHGJo6s8nLL9k99xJeB1M_hjgguXZj-59vSOWbLPA-T2tJ7c5c

When I look back, it seems to me that once vaccines were available, it would have made, and still makes, huge sense to give highest priority to vaccinating people who have to go to work and are in facilities that encourage spread of Covid (and other diseases).  Set up work place vaccination clinics.  Given that some people have strong reactions, schedule things so that 1/5 of the staff get vaccinated each day, and plan for absenteeism to be high for that period.  Seriously, we had outbreaks in meat-packing plants early on, why do they continue to operate at full or close to full staff when personal activities are cut down to tiny numbers?  I have no argument with choirs and theaters and so on being stopped, but some of the big spreaders just kept happening.  And we see it - where are the bad areas in Ontario?  Places like Mississauga, with the factories and warehouses.  Where is it bad here in Ottawa?  The low income neighbourhoods where people have to go to work and be exposed to others.  In fact, it would make sense to stop vaccinating people by age and start vaccinating by exposure risk.  People in care homes of all sorts are already mostly vaccinated.  Finish vaccinating congregate living situations (including jails) but that should not take the lion's share of our vaccination effort at this point.   Vaccinate the people in factories and warehouses.  Vaccinate teachers - but close schools until the end of the academic year.  It's already almost May, why go back for a few weeks?  I know the kids are going stir crazy (like all of us) but outdoor activities are still low risk, open up the parks and the outdoor activities for them.  I'm hoping that by fall vaccines will have been approved for younger age groups, but even if they aren't, by fall most adults should have been vaccinated.

And while we are looking at things to do, improve ventilation.  We know this disease is air-borne.  So is the flu and the common cold.  We save our HVAC costs by recirculating air over and over.  Fresh air going through heat exchangers would help a lot.  Proper filtration would help a lot.  Proper air circulation would help a lot.  For now and for the future.  So air quality matters - in factories and offices and schools.  Improve it.


I'll get off my soap box now.

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 23129
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5999 on: April 17, 2021, 04:31:08 PM »
This is well worth reading.
https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/how-did-it-come-to-this/?fbclid=IwAR1RjKFDDHHGJo6s8nLL9k99xJeB1M_hjgguXZj-59vSOWbLPA-T2tJ7c5c

When I look back, it seems to me that once vaccines were available, it would have made, and still makes, huge sense to give highest priority to vaccinating people who have to go to work and are in facilities that encourage spread of Covid (and other diseases).  Set up work place vaccination clinics.  Given that some people have strong reactions, schedule things so that 1/5 of the staff get vaccinated each day, and plan for absenteeism to be high for that period.  Seriously, we had outbreaks in meat-packing plants early on, why do they continue to operate at full or close to full staff when personal activities are cut down to tiny numbers?  I have no argument with choirs and theaters and so on being stopped, but some of the big spreaders just kept happening.  And we see it - where are the bad areas in Ontario?  Places like Mississauga, with the factories and warehouses.  Where is it bad here in Ottawa?  The low income neighbourhoods where people have to go to work and be exposed to others.  In fact, it would make sense to stop vaccinating people by age and start vaccinating by exposure risk.  People in care homes of all sorts are already mostly vaccinated.  Finish vaccinating congregate living situations (including jails) but that should not take the lion's share of our vaccination effort at this point.   Vaccinate the people in factories and warehouses.  Vaccinate teachers - but close schools until the end of the academic year.  It's already almost May, why go back for a few weeks?  I know the kids are going stir crazy (like all of us) but outdoor activities are still low risk, open up the parks and the outdoor activities for them.  I'm hoping that by fall vaccines will have been approved for younger age groups, but even if they aren't, by fall most adults should have been vaccinated.

And while we are looking at things to do, improve ventilation.  We know this disease is air-borne.  So is the flu and the common cold.  We save our HVAC costs by recirculating air over and over.  Fresh air going through heat exchangers would help a lot.  Proper filtration would help a lot.  Proper air circulation would help a lot.  For now and for the future.  So air quality matters - in factories and offices and schools.  Improve it.


I'll get off my soap box now.

Part of the problem is that we classified 70-80% of businesses as 'essential'.  Even if the work is anything but.  So if you want to start vaccinating essential workers you have pretty much everyone in the province to vaccinate.  Unless you want to break it down into real and fake 'essential' work.  But that would make the lie very evident.