Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 253642 times)

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2400 on: June 02, 2020, 05:57:55 PM »
Off to the lab to create some food planting / harvesting robots. I will rule the world with my agrarian army

Muhhwahhh ha ha ha


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For a lot of crops the ag scientists are way ahead of you.

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2401 on: June 02, 2020, 06:05:51 PM »
Yet another great idea of mine that someone stole before I thought of it.


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Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2402 on: June 02, 2020, 06:17:09 PM »
Oh how times don't change.  Modern day slaves.  It's never been because Americans don't want to do it, they just aren't able to be exploited and won't do it under those conditions.  I rather enjoyed that type of work, in high school and college.  Kept me in shape.  I'd still do it if I had time, but that's because it was a job, not a lifestyle of being crammed into community housing in squalid conditions.  I don't think the answer to "Americans won't work under these conditions for this pay" should be "lets find some brown people to exploit".

If picking crops involved a 40 hour week work week and paid $40k plus a two week vacation and a dental plan, plenty of Americans would sign up to do it. 

The issue is a failure to provide a living wage for an extremely difficult job.

Why would anyone pay $40k USD for an unskilled job?

There's a wide labour pool for it, hence the law of supply and demand says wages will be low.

The migrants who come here to do the work will end up more successful Americans than most Americans, in a couple of generations.

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2403 on: June 03, 2020, 03:39:34 AM »
FWIW it's not only an american thing. In (western) Europe a very large part of agricultural workers come from Asia or eastern Europe. There is/was widespread worry about this with the Covid-19 related quarantine rules when travelling to another country. Locals cant/wont/are unable to do the job. Read a story the other day in the newspaper about a farm here where they had hired a few domestic workers. That was the first time since the mid-90s they had actually employed someone local.

They also pointed out that contrary to popular belief it is actually skilled labor, not just dumb muscles. Yes the work is physcially demanding (main reason locals wouldn't last long or not be very productive) but it also requires a fair amount of knowledge on how and when to do stuff, much of which is pretty specific to the crop/farm/region so the normal is that pretty much the same bunch of seasonal agricultural workers come year after year after year to the same farm.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2404 on: June 03, 2020, 03:47:46 AM »
Sweden's top scientist admits their open wide strategy might have been sub-optimal.

Oh well, at least it was worth a go - I would concur with the view that maybe an in-between approach - harsher than Sweden but looser than New Zealand - would have been optimal. But hindsight is 20/20, and anyway in the coming months and years when we get all the death / casualty figures and the economic figures we can analyse it all and use it to better respond to the next pandemic.

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2405 on: June 03, 2020, 04:12:45 AM »
Sweden's top scientist admits their open wide strategy might have been sub-optimal.

Oh well, at least it was worth a go - I would concur with the view that maybe an in-between approach - harsher than Sweden but looser than New Zealand - would have been optimal. But hindsight is 20/20, and anyway in the coming months and years when we get all the death / casualty figures and the economic figures we can analyse it all and use it to better respond to the next pandemic.

Remember in the early days one epidemiologist here pointed out that how to respond to Covid-19 was a difficult call because at first sight it didn't appear sufficiently dangerous to hit it really hard. He said if something like ebola strikes there is zero uncertainty on what to do, but with mildish diseases you can argue both ways.

The Swedish approach was not very controversial in health circles in the beginning, if we had listened to our experts we would most likely have taken an approach similar to Sweden, probably with a bit more restrictions earlier on, but the politicians panicked and in hindsight that seems, on rare event, to have been the correct thing to do. They also panicked very early so the epidemic never really got a foothold here which also appears to be the right thing to do. But it's way too early to call anyway.

The main flaw in Sweden has been failure to protect the old and vulnerable. This turned out to be very difficult, partly due to systematic reasons (large care homes, lots of untrained staff, lack of protective equipment etc) and partly because, it is, well, difficult as the people caring for these also have a life outside the care homes. The second flaw, on which the jury might still be out, is that they probably assumed that a (much) larger number of people got infected but with very mild to no symptoms. Various math says a substantial part of Stockholms inhabitants has been infected, but the antibody tests on the ground says otherwise.

The really unusual thing about Sweden is that, at least until quite recently, the politicians have been very hands-off and the epidemiologists have been running the show. This would normally lead to a better outcome, but it does not seem like that in Sweden so far.

And Sweden is nowhere near a full reopening of society. With the easing of measures announced here on Jun 15th Sweden will have more restrictions than Norway in a lot of areas. And the travel bans are starting to get lifted around in Europe but the swedes are left out in the cold still.
« Last Edit: June 03, 2020, 04:25:48 AM by habaneroNorway »

Gremlin

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2406 on: June 03, 2020, 04:18:56 AM »
Sweden's top scientist admits their open wide strategy might have been sub-optimal.

Oh well, at least it was worth a go - I would concur with the view that maybe an in-between approach - harsher than Sweden but looser than New Zealand - would have been optimal. But hindsight is 20/20, and anyway in the coming months and years when we get all the death / casualty figures and the economic figures we can analyse it all and use it to better respond to the next pandemic.
I've know you've bashed NZ's approach in the past, but I wouldn't be too quick to assert it was too strong.  There's every chance that by next week they will have both completely eradicated the virus (*tick*) and have completely opened up their domestic economy (*Alert Level 2 => Alert Level 1*).  As in everything opened up to full capacity.  No social distancing, no management of capacity, no restrictions on operations.  Sporting events, places of worship, concerts, festivals, all in play. 

https://covid19.govt.nz/assets/resources/tables/COVID-19-alert-levels-detailed.pdf

In comparison, I still think Australia has done exceptionally well, but we're at least a month and a half from aspirationally opening cafes and restaurants to a capacity of 100 in some states and still subject to 1 person per 4 square metres.  I know several cafe owners whose businesses simply cannot survive past the end of JobKeeper if they are forced to operate at 1 per 4 sqm - their finances just doesn't stack up.  Adhering to 1 person per 4 square metres on public transport is making return to work in the CBDs a very difficult challenge.  Travel is still restricted between states.  We're still a long, long way off even thinking about a full concert hall, the MCG at capacity or Flemington full on Melbourne Cup Day.  Don't underestimate the drag on the Australian economy that still exists as a result, even as we move to Phase 3 of reopening.  NZ is past this.  They are the only nation on earth right now that can rebuild at pace.  I wish we were them.
« Last Edit: June 03, 2020, 04:24:29 AM by Gremlin »

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2407 on: June 03, 2020, 05:22:25 AM »
Well, NZ has the advantage of being even less densely populated and even more remote, travel wise, than we are. But keep in mind that they locked down harder than us, and so will, I assume, have a bigger economic bill per capita than us, unless our current lockdown easing fails to progress as planned to near full-opening by 1 July. Here in Australia, within a month we should be completely open except for tourism and large events, (and the tourism is not going to recommence regardless), so our economic timeframes might end up being little different.

Also, here in Australia it's only Victoria that still has consistent community transmission, mainly due to poor management of several different clusters.

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2408 on: June 03, 2020, 05:26:29 AM »
Here is a reminder of the text message sent to all of NZ. Reading it you really got the sense that the Government knew what they were doing, knew the consequences of what they were doing and the impact it had, but chose to take the tough decision to do it anyway because they truly believed it was the right thing to do.

Clear language, clear instructions... none of this "social distancing" bullshit that is open to interpretation. They chose to take the pain hard and early, and hence they're out the other side faster. It's not going to drag on and on over there as a consequence. Well done NZ!

"National Emergency Management Agency Alert
from 11:59pm tonight, the whole of New Zealand moves to Covert-19 Alert Level 4.
 
This message is for all of New Zealand. We are depending on you.

Follow the rules and STAY HOME. Act as if you have Covid-19. This will save lives.

Remember:
*Where you stay tonight is where YOU MUST stay from now on.
 *You must only be in physical contact with those you are living with.

It is likely Level 4 measures will be in place for 4 weeks.

Lets all do our bit to unite against Covid-19.

Kia kaha.

Issued 25 March 2020 6:30pm"

the_fixer

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How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2409 on: June 03, 2020, 05:46:58 AM »
Sweden's top scientist admits their open wide strategy might have been sub-optimal.

Oh well, at least it was worth a go - I would concur with the view that maybe an in-between approach - harsher than Sweden but looser than New Zealand - would have been optimal. But hindsight is 20/20, and anyway in the coming months and years when we get all the death / casualty figures and the economic figures we can analyse it all and use it to better respond to the next pandemic.
That place between would probably be how most of the US was setup.

For example here in Colorado schools, gyms, bars, hair and nail salons were closed. Elective procedures were asked to be delayed but for example dentists could still take care of emergency dental and stuff like that.

Restaurants were curbside only and were allowed to sell alcohol to go, liquor stores were open, cannabis dispensaries were open, grocery stores were open and a large portion of retail stores were open if essential or could offer curbside pickup.

Employers were told to have non essential employees and those that could work from home.

We could go outside and recreate but were asked to stay within 10 miles of your home for recreation but no one really enforced it other that a few mountain towns shutting roads down due to crowds of people flocking to the mountains to play.

This was all for a short period and now pretty much everything is open with measures in place with the exception of bars, large gatherings and movie theaters.


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« Last Edit: June 03, 2020, 06:28:16 AM by the_fixer »

Kris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2410 on: June 03, 2020, 06:26:57 AM »
Here is a reminder of the text message sent to all of NZ. Reading it you really got the sense that the Government knew what they were doing, knew the consequences of what they were doing and the impact it had, but chose to take the tough decision to do it anyway because they truly believed it was the right thing to do.

Clear language, clear instructions... none of this "social distancing" bullshit that is open to interpretation. They chose to take the pain hard and early, and hence they're out the other side faster. It's not going to drag on and on over there as a consequence. Well done NZ!

"National Emergency Management Agency Alert
from 11:59pm tonight, the whole of New Zealand moves to Covert-19 Alert Level 4.
 
This message is for all of New Zealand. We are depending on you.

Follow the rules and STAY HOME. Act as if you have Covid-19. This will save lives.

Remember:
*Where you stay tonight is where YOU MUST stay from now on.
 *You must only be in physical contact with those you are living with.

It is likely Level 4 measures will be in place for 4 weeks.

Lets all do our bit to unite against Covid-19.

Kia kaha.

Issued 25 March 2020 6:30pm"

God, this level of leadership makes me so jealous...

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2411 on: June 03, 2020, 06:33:33 AM »
A point most people have forgotten is that what Sweden has actually done is what everyone had as the initial holy grail - "flattening the curve". Sweden has never been out of ICU capacity (they have started reducing capacity now) and at any given time they have never been above 80% utilization, they also put up some temporary stuff in the capital that was never used, but they did make room for more ICU beds in the regular hospitals.

I think most European countries have abandoned that plan now and the goal seems to be to get infections down to a very low level and keep it there, based on evidence so far this "keeping down" part appears to be a lot easier than anticipated. Our specialists are scratching their heads a bit why infections keep declining despite society being more and more open and has been that for quite a few weeks now. Our figures are now below 10 new infections / day, 27 patients in hospital of which 6 in ICU of which 3 on a ventilator (population 5.4 million).

The theory now is that by having no large gatherings you avoid the "super-spreader" situations in which 1 infected infect a lot others in a short time and consequently the numbers stay low despite more and more returning to some normality. This, combined with still social distancing and good hygiene seem to do the trick. At least for now.
« Last Edit: June 03, 2020, 06:36:28 AM by habaneroNorway »

Gremlin

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2412 on: June 03, 2020, 04:39:29 PM »
Well, NZ has the advantage of being even less densely populated and even more remote, travel wise, than we are. But keep in mind that they locked down harder than us, and so will, I assume, have a bigger economic bill per capita than us, unless our current lockdown easing fails to progress as planned to near full-opening by 1 July. Here in Australia, within a month we should be completely open except for tourism and large events, (and the tourism is not going to recommence regardless), so our economic timeframes might end up being little different.

Also, here in Australia it's only Victoria that still has consistent community transmission, mainly due to poor management of several different clusters.

Best not to assume and actually find out.

NZ's per capita COVID welfare payments are actually less than half of that of Australia's.  The bulk of their additional welfare payments have already been paid.  In comparison, Australia's additional welfare payments through JobKeeper and JobSeeker are due to stretch out for many months as our recovery process will stretch for many more months than theirs.  Australia is not even halfway through paying out the additional welfare programs that have been implemented whilst NZ is almost finished.  In other words, our welfare bill is much HIGHER precisely because we didn't lock down as hard as them.

But maybe their overall economic position will be worse?  Well, it certainly took a hit in April.  Official figures aren't out yet, but the Reserve Bank of NZ suggested the GDP saw a 37% fall for the month at Level 4.  For the four weeks at Level 3, it forecast a 19% reduction in GDP, with an 8.8% reduction for Level 2.  Having said that, it is forecasting only a 3.8% reduction once it hits Level 1.  That's pretty impressive given that International visitors contribute 4.5% to GDP.  In other words, once they get to Level 1, their economy is expected to GROW by 0.7% other than what comes from International travel.  Overall, they are expected to have a 1.7% annual decline in GDP over 2020. 

In comparison, the Reserve Bank of Australia noted in their May economic outlook that Australia's GDP is expected to contract by 10% in the first half of 2020.  Their commentary states that "Beyond the first half of 2020, the outlook for the domestic economy depends on how long social distancing remains in place".  In other words, whilst you still have social distancing, the GDP outlook is gonna be crap.  That 1 person per 4 sqm public health mandate kills many, many businesses once the support of JobKeeper is removed.  The RBA's baseline scenario expects a 6% annual decline in GDP over 2020 for Australia.

In addition, you describe Australia as being "near full-opening by 1 July".  Let's unpack that.

In NZ, by 1 July they'll be able to:

  • Freely travel domestically
  • Attend concerts
  • Participate in fun runs
  • Sit a cafe or restaurant without social distancing measures
  • Attend sporting events without social distancing measures
  • Travel on public transport without social distancing measures
  • Work in an office without social distancing measures
  • Have 150 people to a wedding
  • Attend a large scale religious service
  • Hold a school fete
  • Participate in a sporting carnival, cultural event or agricultural show

Here in Australia, none of those things will be available to me under Stage 3 in July.  It's also many such events (and travel!) that make that incremental difference to GDP that NZ is forecasting that Australia isn't.  I'm certainly not complaining as to where Australia is in comparison to the rest of the world.  But credit where credit is due.  And let's look at facts, rather than assuming their economic bill will be worse per capita.

Gremlin

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2413 on: June 03, 2020, 05:25:40 PM »
Here is a reminder of the text message sent to all of NZ. Reading it you really got the sense that the Government knew what they were doing, knew the consequences of what they were doing and the impact it had, but chose to take the tough decision to do it anyway because they truly believed it was the right thing to do.

Clear language, clear instructions... none of this "social distancing" bullshit that is open to interpretation. They chose to take the pain hard and early, and hence they're out the other side faster. It's not going to drag on and on over there as a consequence. Well done NZ!

"National Emergency Management Agency Alert
from 11:59pm tonight, the whole of New Zealand moves to Covert-19 Alert Level 4.
 
This message is for all of New Zealand. We are depending on you.

Follow the rules and STAY HOME. Act as if you have Covid-19. This will save lives.

Remember:
*Where you stay tonight is where YOU MUST stay from now on.
 *You must only be in physical contact with those you are living with.

It is likely Level 4 measures will be in place for 4 weeks.

Lets all do our bit to unite against Covid-19.

Kia kaha.

Issued 25 March 2020 6:30pm"

God, this level of leadership makes me so jealous...
As an Australian, I so wish we had someone like Jacinda.  She has proven herself the leader you want in a crisis three times over now.  And each time she gets better and better.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2414 on: June 03, 2020, 05:46:32 PM »
Our welfare bill is higher because unfortunately our government (and our people) think that even if you aren’t living in financial stress you should still get an extremely generous, non-means-tested pension during this time of crisis. Forget keeping the status quo, many Australians (eg every one of the previous 5% unemployed, plus every long-term casual who wasn’t previously earning $750 per week or more - which is most of them) are actually financially better off due to the cash splash, which is ridiculous. Anyway, you can’t measure the economic impact by the welfare spend because the latter is a political decision not an economic one. It would be better to measure it by, say, private sector GDP contraction. Which we won’t know till the next quarter’s figures.

Gremlin

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2415 on: June 03, 2020, 05:58:35 PM »
Does this make sense?  And if it does, why would deaths from other medical issues also increase?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/01/us/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-new-jersey.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Umm.  Co-morbidities.

Because COVID is the "new" disease, the focus tends to be on what other conditions increase the likelihood of death from COVID. 

For example, IF I have heart disease THEN it increases the likelihood of mortality from COVID.

But we should also be looking at a relationship in the other direction.

So, IF I have COVID THEN it increases the likelihood of mortality from...  Looks to be a not insignificant list.

Gremlin

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2416 on: June 03, 2020, 06:12:20 PM »
Our welfare bill is higher because unfortunately our government (and our people) think that even if you aren’t living in financial stress you should still get an extremely generous, non-means-tested pension during this time of crisis. Forget keeping the status quo, many Australians (eg every one of the previous 5% unemployed, plus every long-term casual who wasn’t previously earning $750 per week or more - which is most of them) are actually financially better off due to the cash splash, which is ridiculous. Anyway, you can’t measure the economic impact by the welfare spend because the latter is a political decision not an economic one. It would be better to measure it by, say, private sector GDP contraction. Which we won’t know till the next quarter’s figures.
I'd say that GDP forecasts are the best estimate for us at the moment which puts NZ way ahead of pretty much everyone else.  Certainly well ahead of Australia.  And I don't think you should cherry pick just one quarter's figures when NZ chose to absorb all its pain over a very short period and everyone else chose to spread it out for much longer.  It's the much faster path out that drives the better outcome for NZ, not the extent of the economic pain they felt for two short, sharp months.

Or you could just assume...

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2417 on: June 03, 2020, 08:12:59 PM »
Forget keeping the status quo, many Australians (eg every one of the previous 5% unemployed, plus every long-term casual who wasn’t previously earning $750 per week or more - which is most of them) are actually financially better off due to the cash splash, which is ridiculous.
If it makes you feel better, most of those now-better-off casuals will in 12 months be on the old dole of $250pw, as JobKeeper will be gone, and the doubled JobSeeker, and with the economy in depression they'll be jobless.

js82

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2418 on: June 04, 2020, 05:34:36 AM »
I think most European countries have abandoned that plan now and the goal seems to be to get infections down to a very low level and keep it there, based on evidence so far this "keeping down" part appears to be a lot easier than anticipated. Our specialists are scratching their heads a bit why infections keep declining despite society being more and more open and has been that for quite a few weeks now. Our figures are now below 10 new infections / day, 27 patients in hospital of which 6 in ICU of which 3 on a ventilator (population 5.4 million).

The theory now is that by having no large gatherings you avoid the "super-spreader" situations in which 1 infected infect a lot others in a short time and consequently the numbers stay low despite more and more returning to some normality. This, combined with still social distancing and good hygiene seem to do the trick. At least for now.

At this point there's a growing body of evidence that both mask usage and basic social distancing (keeping apart to the extent that it's possible while living a mostly-normal life) are substantially effective at reducing transmission.  This is a very good thing, because it means that basic, sustainable measures with little economic impact are highly effective, if enough people continue to follow them.

The open question in my mind is what we'll see as we have more and more of the high-potential spreading events(weddings, religious gatherings, indoor sporting events) that are high-density, long-duration, and often indoors.  We've just started opening these things up in certain regions of the US.  The good news is that we're getting into summer now in the US, which means that most of our sporting events and many weddings are outdoors - this leaves religious services as the main high-density, indoor events during the summer.  The fall will be telling, as both weddings and sporting events migrate indoors.

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2419 on: June 04, 2020, 05:44:34 AM »
Well, overe here hardly anyone wear a mask and we even write in the latin alphabet so not all correlation implies casuality.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2420 on: June 04, 2020, 07:07:10 AM »
Our welfare bill is higher because unfortunately our government (and our people) think that even if you aren’t living in financial stress you should still get an extremely generous, non-means-tested pension during this time of crisis. Forget keeping the status quo, many Australians (eg every one of the previous 5% unemployed, plus every long-term casual who wasn’t previously earning $750 per week or more - which is most of them) are actually financially better off due to the cash splash, which is ridiculous. Anyway, you can’t measure the economic impact by the welfare spend because the latter is a political decision not an economic one. It would be better to measure it by, say, private sector GDP contraction. Which we won’t know till the next quarter’s figures.
I'd say that GDP forecasts are the best estimate for us at the moment which puts NZ way ahead of pretty much everyone else.  Certainly well ahead of Australia.  And I don't think you should cherry pick just one quarter's figures when NZ chose to absorb all its pain over a very short period and everyone else chose to spread it out for much longer.  It's the much faster path out that drives the better outcome for NZ, not the extent of the economic pain they felt for two short, sharp months.

Or you could just assume...

We also have a fair amount of historical data related to pandemics that shows a more thorough/extreme shutting down to prevent spread of disease nets better long term economic results because the disease doesn't resurface as often/quickly and because people's confidence returns more quickly (leading to more normal economic behaviour).

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2421 on: June 04, 2020, 07:33:57 AM »

bigblock440

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2422 on: June 04, 2020, 07:42:15 AM »

 

Pretty sure that killed more than 1% of the dinosaurs though

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2423 on: June 04, 2020, 07:59:42 AM »
And yet their top concern was still the dino economy.  Go figure.

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2424 on: June 04, 2020, 03:02:48 PM »
Our welfare bill is higher because unfortunately our government (and our people) think that even if you aren’t living in financial stress you should still get an extremely generous, non-means-tested pension during this time of crisis. Forget keeping the status quo, many Australians (eg every one of the previous 5% unemployed, plus every long-term casual who wasn’t previously earning $750 per week or more - which is most of them) are actually financially better off due to the cash splash, which is ridiculous. Anyway, you can’t measure the economic impact by the welfare spend because the latter is a political decision not an economic one. It would be better to measure it by, say, private sector GDP contraction. Which we won’t know till the next quarter’s figures.
I'd say that GDP forecasts are the best estimate for us at the moment which puts NZ way ahead of pretty much everyone else.  Certainly well ahead of Australia.  And I don't think you should cherry pick just one quarter's figures when NZ chose to absorb all its pain over a very short period and everyone else chose to spread it out for much longer.  It's the much faster path out that drives the better outcome for NZ, not the extent of the economic pain they felt for two short, sharp months.

Or you could just assume...

We also have a fair amount of historical data related to pandemics that shows a more thorough/extreme shutting down to prevent spread of disease nets better long term economic results because the disease doesn't resurface as often/quickly and because people's confidence returns more quickly (leading to more normal economic behaviour).

That would be good reading.   do you have any links/references handy?

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2425 on: June 04, 2020, 03:26:13 PM »

That would be good reading.   do you have any links/references handy?

Here, for example
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/pandemic-economy-lessons-1918-flu/

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2426 on: June 04, 2020, 07:40:45 PM »
You can't compare the pandemic with the comet that killed the dinosaurs. As was well noted by the above poster, it's not like the comet killed only 0.05% of the population.

Right now blacks have employment of <50% due to the lockdown measures. If "black lives matter", then I'd say that overwhelmingly shows that it's not 'just the economy" that's hurt by lockdown. It's lives and livelihoods.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2427 on: June 04, 2020, 07:52:09 PM »
I’m going to ask you to stop digging

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2428 on: June 04, 2020, 10:32:41 PM »
I’m not sure you got the memo, but the US is basically done with the lockdowns. I feel like this thread has run its course at this point. Not having restaurants at 100% capacity isn’t the cause of the blacks in the US’ suffering.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2429 on: June 04, 2020, 11:29:25 PM »
Watching tens of thousands of protesters march shoulder to shoulder across many US cities, screaming at the top of their lungs, can't help but think if these protests don't end up being a super-spreader event, something must've changed with the virus? the weather? herd immunity?...

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2430 on: June 05, 2020, 12:03:21 AM »
Watching tens of thousands of protesters march shoulder to shoulder across many US cities, screaming at the top of their lungs, can't help but think if these protests don't end up being a super-spreader event, something must've changed with the virus? the weather? herd immunity?...

Most of the trends so far suggest that reopening hasn’t significantly increased viral transmission. States that reopened have mostly plateaued with some exceptions. Of course, those actions are far more controlled than the protests and looting currently going on. I think there will be a slight uptick but relatively few people will be exposed so it won’t blow up like in NYC and surroundings. Coronaviruses tends to mutate slower than influenza, for example. Gene sequencing from multiple countries at several time points during the pandemic have shown only trivial differences. It may be weather, but Brazil is being hit hard, so maybe not.

js82

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2431 on: June 05, 2020, 04:32:39 AM »
Watching tens of thousands of protesters march shoulder to shoulder across many US cities, screaming at the top of their lungs, can't help but think if these protests don't end up being a super-spreader event, something must've changed with the virus? the weather? herd immunity?...

The vast, vast majority of super-spreader events were A) Indoors, and B) Kept the same people in proximity to each other for extended periods of time.  A doesn't apply here. B might, although it's not clear to me to what extent everyone in the protest is standing next to the same people over the course of hours, or if there's movement.

At least in theory, higher temperatures are helpful for reducing the contagiousness of airborne droplets(though it hasn't been thoroughly quantified for Covid, to my knowledge) as well.

I don't think the number of infections you'll see will be anything near what you'd get if you packed everyone into  the bleachers of an indoor basketball/hockey arena, but it will be greater than zero, to be sure.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2432 on: June 05, 2020, 07:33:56 AM »
Wasn't the big parade they held in Philadelphia in 1918 considered a "super-spreader event"? Looking at images of the parade route in Philly reminds me a lot of photos and videos I've seen recently of people all over our country marching in BLM protests. What's different now @Abe and @js82? I realize the current novel coronavirus is NOT influenza. Is that why, so far anyway, ERs in the US haven't been filling up? Is it because coronaviruses are less transmissible outside than influenza?

Quote
"aggressive Liberty Loan hawkers were far from the greatest threat that day. Lurking among the multitudes was an invisible peril known as influenza—and it loves crowds. Philadelphians were exposed en masse to a lethal contagion widely called “Spanish Flu,” a misnomer created earlier in 1918 when the first published reports of a mysterious epidemic emerged from a wire service in Madrid...Within 72 hours of the parade, every bed in Philadelphia’s 31 hospitals was filled. In the week ending October 5, some 2,600 people in Philadelphia had died from the flu or its complications. A week later, that number rose to more than 4,500. With many of the city’s health professionals pressed into military service, Philadelphia was unprepared for this deluge of death."

In addition to big outdoor protests all over the country, many Americans have already returned to eating at indoor restaurants. A neighbor who believes Covid-19 is a conspiracy keeps posting photos of himself sitting down indoors eating, without a mask, of course, at various restaurants in our area that have been defying our governor's shut down orders. Why aren't people getting sick?

I watched George Floyd's memorial service in Minneapolis on TV yesterday. There were hundreds of people packed into an auditorium, including the governor or MN, Senator Amy Klobuchar, Al Sharpton, etc.. Some people had masks on, but many did not, and they were singing at the top of their lungs. People were crying, wiping their eyes with their hands, hugging each other...

It just seems to me like something must've fundamentally changed with the virus over the past 3 months. Or is it just the weather? Mutation?

LWYRUP

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2433 on: June 05, 2020, 07:36:59 AM »
Wasn't the big parade they held in Philadelphia in 1918 considered a "super-spreader event"? Looking at images of the parade route in Philly reminds me a lot of photos and videos I've seen recently of people all over our country marching in BLM protests. What's different now @Abe and @js82? I realize the current novel coronavirus is NOT influenza. Is that why, so far anyway, ERs in the US haven't been filling up? Is it because coronaviruses are less transmissible outside than influenza?

Quote
"aggressive Liberty Loan hawkers were far from the greatest threat that day. Lurking among the multitudes was an invisible peril known as influenza—and it loves crowds. Philadelphians were exposed en masse to a lethal contagion widely called “Spanish Flu,” a misnomer created earlier in 1918 when the first published reports of a mysterious epidemic emerged from a wire service in Madrid...Within 72 hours of the parade, every bed in Philadelphia’s 31 hospitals was filled. In the week ending October 5, some 2,600 people in Philadelphia had died from the flu or its complications. A week later, that number rose to more than 4,500. With many of the city’s health professionals pressed into military service, Philadelphia was unprepared for this deluge of death."

In addition to big outdoor protests all over the country, many Americans have already returned to eating at indoor restaurants. A neighbor who believes Covid-19 is a conspiracy keeps posting photos of himself sitting down indoors eating, without a mask, of course, at various restaurants in our area that have been defying our governor's shut down orders. Why aren't people getting sick?

I watched George Floyd's memorial service in Minneapolis on TV yesterday. There were hundreds of people packed into an auditorium, including the governor or MN, Senator Amy Klobuchar, Al Sharpton, etc.. Some people had masks on, but many did not, and they were singing at the top of their lungs. People were crying, wiping their eyes with their hands, hugging each other...

It just seems to me like something must've fundamentally changed with the virus over the past 3 months. Or is it just the weather? Mutation?

Let's give it a few weeks and then we'll know if we're done with the thread.

LightTripper

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2434 on: June 05, 2020, 07:42:22 AM »
I found this very interesting coming out of the UK today.  70% non-symptomatic in the latest data.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/05/covid-19-infections-fell-sharply-in-england-in-late-may-ons-finds

So many interesting questions raised - no idea what to make of it.

As my uncle put it (in his 80s, asthmatic, hospitalised for flu last winter and spent the best part of 6 months recovering, so isolating hard from Covid-19!)  - "if you have the misfortune to live in interesting times, you might as well find them interesting".

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2435 on: June 05, 2020, 07:43:46 AM »
Wasn't the big parade they held in Philadelphia in 1918 considered a "super-spreader event"? Looking at images of the parade route in Philly reminds me a lot of photos and videos I've seen recently of people all over our country marching in BLM protests. What's different now @Abe and @js82? I realize the current novel coronavirus is NOT influenza. Is that why, so far anyway, ERs in the US haven't been filling up? Is it because coronaviruses are less transmissible outside than influenza?

Quote
"aggressive Liberty Loan hawkers were far from the greatest threat that day. Lurking among the multitudes was an invisible peril known as influenza—and it loves crowds. Philadelphians were exposed en masse to a lethal contagion widely called “Spanish Flu,” a misnomer created earlier in 1918 when the first published reports of a mysterious epidemic emerged from a wire service in Madrid...Within 72 hours of the parade, every bed in Philadelphia’s 31 hospitals was filled. In the week ending October 5, some 2,600 people in Philadelphia had died from the flu or its complications. A week later, that number rose to more than 4,500. With many of the city’s health professionals pressed into military service, Philadelphia was unprepared for this deluge of death."

In addition to big outdoor protests all over the country, many Americans have already returned to eating at indoor restaurants. A neighbor who believes Covid-19 is a conspiracy keeps posting photos of himself sitting down indoors eating, without a mask, of course, at various restaurants in our area that have been defying our governor's shut down orders. Why aren't people getting sick?

I watched George Floyd's memorial service in Minneapolis on TV yesterday. There were hundreds of people packed into an auditorium, including the governor or MN, Senator Amy Klobuchar, Al Sharpton, etc.. Some people had masks on, but many did not, and they were singing at the top of their lungs. People were crying, wiping their eyes with their hands, hugging each other...

It just seems to me like something must've fundamentally changed with the virus over the past 3 months. Or is it just the weather? Mutation?

Bruh.  110k+ dead in the usa, and nearly 2M infections.  Over 1k deaths and 22k new infections yesterday.   People are getting sick.  We've significantly slowed the spread of it by shutting shit down - sporting events, concerts, casinos, theme parks, theaters, restaurants, non-essential businesses.  We've adopted widespread mask usage, sanitation, and social distancing.  The vast majority of people are still observing some form of social distancing and limiting how much contact they have with others, especially indoors. 


Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2436 on: June 05, 2020, 08:10:18 AM »
Wasn't the big parade they held in Philadelphia in 1918 considered a "super-spreader event"? Looking at images of the parade route in Philly reminds me a lot of photos and videos I've seen recently of people all over our country marching in BLM protests. What's different now @Abe and @js82? I realize the current novel coronavirus is NOT influenza. Is that why, so far anyway, ERs in the US haven't been filling up? Is it because coronaviruses are less transmissible outside than influenza?

Quote
"aggressive Liberty Loan hawkers were far from the greatest threat that day. Lurking among the multitudes was an invisible peril known as influenza—and it loves crowds. Philadelphians were exposed en masse to a lethal contagion widely called “Spanish Flu,” a misnomer created earlier in 1918 when the first published reports of a mysterious epidemic emerged from a wire service in Madrid...Within 72 hours of the parade, every bed in Philadelphia’s 31 hospitals was filled. In the week ending October 5, some 2,600 people in Philadelphia had died from the flu or its complications. A week later, that number rose to more than 4,500. With many of the city’s health professionals pressed into military service, Philadelphia was unprepared for this deluge of death."

In addition to big outdoor protests all over the country, many Americans have already returned to eating at indoor restaurants. A neighbor who believes Covid-19 is a conspiracy keeps posting photos of himself sitting down indoors eating, without a mask, of course, at various restaurants in our area that have been defying our governor's shut down orders. Why aren't people getting sick?

I watched George Floyd's memorial service in Minneapolis on TV yesterday. There were hundreds of people packed into an auditorium, including the governor or MN, Senator Amy Klobuchar, Al Sharpton, etc.. Some people had masks on, but many did not, and they were singing at the top of their lungs. People were crying, wiping their eyes with their hands, hugging each other...

It just seems to me like something must've fundamentally changed with the virus over the past 3 months. Or is it just the weather? Mutation?

Bruh.  110k+ dead in the usa, and nearly 2M infections.  Over 1k deaths and 22k new infections yesterday.   People are getting sick.  We've significantly slowed the spread of it by shutting shit down - sporting events, concerts, casinos, theme parks, theaters, restaurants, non-essential businesses.  We've adopted widespread mask usage, sanitation, and social distancing.  The vast majority of people are still observing some form of social distancing and limiting how much contact they have with others, especially indoors.

I understand people are still getting sick, but fewer than before. There hasn't yet been a big spike in ER admissions, afaik. Why?

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2437 on: June 05, 2020, 08:12:23 AM »
Fewer than before because people are still somewhat more cautious and not all things are open completely

Michael in ABQ

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2438 on: June 05, 2020, 08:19:48 AM »
Wasn't the big parade they held in Philadelphia in 1918 considered a "super-spreader event"? Looking at images of the parade route in Philly reminds me a lot of photos and videos I've seen recently of people all over our country marching in BLM protests. What's different now @Abe and @js82? I realize the current novel coronavirus is NOT influenza. Is that why, so far anyway, ERs in the US haven't been filling up? Is it because coronaviruses are less transmissible outside than influenza?

Quote
"aggressive Liberty Loan hawkers were far from the greatest threat that day. Lurking among the multitudes was an invisible peril known as influenza—and it loves crowds. Philadelphians were exposed en masse to a lethal contagion widely called “Spanish Flu,” a misnomer created earlier in 1918 when the first published reports of a mysterious epidemic emerged from a wire service in Madrid...Within 72 hours of the parade, every bed in Philadelphia’s 31 hospitals was filled. In the week ending October 5, some 2,600 people in Philadelphia had died from the flu or its complications. A week later, that number rose to more than 4,500. With many of the city’s health professionals pressed into military service, Philadelphia was unprepared for this deluge of death."

In addition to big outdoor protests all over the country, many Americans have already returned to eating at indoor restaurants. A neighbor who believes Covid-19 is a conspiracy keeps posting photos of himself sitting down indoors eating, without a mask, of course, at various restaurants in our area that have been defying our governor's shut down orders. Why aren't people getting sick?

I watched George Floyd's memorial service in Minneapolis on TV yesterday. There were hundreds of people packed into an auditorium, including the governor or MN, Senator Amy Klobuchar, Al Sharpton, etc.. Some people had masks on, but many did not, and they were singing at the top of their lungs. People were crying, wiping their eyes with their hands, hugging each other...

It just seems to me like something must've fundamentally changed with the virus over the past 3 months. Or is it just the weather? Mutation?

Bruh.  110k+ dead in the usa, and nearly 2M infections.  Over 1k deaths and 22k new infections yesterday.   People are getting sick.  We've significantly slowed the spread of it by shutting shit down - sporting events, concerts, casinos, theme parks, theaters, restaurants, non-essential businesses.  We've adopted widespread mask usage, sanitation, and social distancing.  The vast majority of people are still observing some form of social distancing and limiting how much contact they have with others, especially indoors.

I understand people are still getting sick, but fewer than before. There hasn't yet been a big spike in ER admissions, afaik. Why?

It takes several days or even a few weeks for the virus to make you sick enough to seek medical care. If you get a large viral load, i.e. long and close contact with a loved one coughing in your face versus a small viral load from one sick person in a large crowd, it will take longer for the virus to reproduce and overwhelm your immune system.

Also, most people have been quarantining for a while so the odds are still relatively low that anyone in those protests is sick and spreading the virus.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2439 on: June 05, 2020, 08:25:31 AM »
Wasn't the big parade they held in Philadelphia in 1918 considered a "super-spreader event"? Looking at images of the parade route in Philly reminds me a lot of photos and videos I've seen recently of people all over our country marching in BLM protests. What's different now @Abe and @js82? I realize the current novel coronavirus is NOT influenza. Is that why, so far anyway, ERs in the US haven't been filling up? Is it because coronaviruses are less transmissible outside than influenza?

Quote
"aggressive Liberty Loan hawkers were far from the greatest threat that day. Lurking among the multitudes was an invisible peril known as influenza—and it loves crowds. Philadelphians were exposed en masse to a lethal contagion widely called “Spanish Flu,” a misnomer created earlier in 1918 when the first published reports of a mysterious epidemic emerged from a wire service in Madrid...Within 72 hours of the parade, every bed in Philadelphia’s 31 hospitals was filled. In the week ending October 5, some 2,600 people in Philadelphia had died from the flu or its complications. A week later, that number rose to more than 4,500. With many of the city’s health professionals pressed into military service, Philadelphia was unprepared for this deluge of death."

In addition to big outdoor protests all over the country, many Americans have already returned to eating at indoor restaurants. A neighbor who believes Covid-19 is a conspiracy keeps posting photos of himself sitting down indoors eating, without a mask, of course, at various restaurants in our area that have been defying our governor's shut down orders. Why aren't people getting sick?

I watched George Floyd's memorial service in Minneapolis on TV yesterday. There were hundreds of people packed into an auditorium, including the governor or MN, Senator Amy Klobuchar, Al Sharpton, etc.. Some people had masks on, but many did not, and they were singing at the top of their lungs. People were crying, wiping their eyes with their hands, hugging each other...

It just seems to me like something must've fundamentally changed with the virus over the past 3 months. Or is it just the weather? Mutation?

Bruh.  110k+ dead in the usa, and nearly 2M infections.  Over 1k deaths and 22k new infections yesterday.   People are getting sick.  We've significantly slowed the spread of it by shutting shit down - sporting events, concerts, casinos, theme parks, theaters, restaurants, non-essential businesses.  We've adopted widespread mask usage, sanitation, and social distancing.  The vast majority of people are still observing some form of social distancing and limiting how much contact they have with others, especially indoors.

I understand people are still getting sick, but fewer than before. There hasn't yet been a big spike in ER admissions, afaik. Why?

It takes several days or even a few weeks for the virus to make you sick enough to seek medical care. If you get a large viral load, i.e. long and close contact with a loved one coughing in your face versus a small viral load from one sick person in a large crowd, it will take longer for the virus to reproduce and overwhelm your immune system.

Also, most people have been quarantining for a while so the odds are still relatively low that anyone in those protests is sick and spreading the virus.

Maybe this is it? Since most people have been social distancing, maybe not very many of them are carrying and spreading the disease, yet anyway...

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2440 on: June 05, 2020, 08:55:40 AM »
Wasn't the big parade they held in Philadelphia in 1918 considered a "super-spreader event"? Looking at images of the parade route in Philly reminds me a lot of photos and videos I've seen recently of people all over our country marching in BLM protests. What's different now @Abe and @js82? I realize the current novel coronavirus is NOT influenza. Is that why, so far anyway, ERs in the US haven't been filling up? Is it because coronaviruses are less transmissible outside than influenza?

Quote
"aggressive Liberty Loan hawkers were far from the greatest threat that day. Lurking among the multitudes was an invisible peril known as influenza—and it loves crowds. Philadelphians were exposed en masse to a lethal contagion widely called “Spanish Flu,” a misnomer created earlier in 1918 when the first published reports of a mysterious epidemic emerged from a wire service in Madrid...Within 72 hours of the parade, every bed in Philadelphia’s 31 hospitals was filled. In the week ending October 5, some 2,600 people in Philadelphia had died from the flu or its complications. A week later, that number rose to more than 4,500. With many of the city’s health professionals pressed into military service, Philadelphia was unprepared for this deluge of death."

In addition to big outdoor protests all over the country, many Americans have already returned to eating at indoor restaurants. A neighbor who believes Covid-19 is a conspiracy keeps posting photos of himself sitting down indoors eating, without a mask, of course, at various restaurants in our area that have been defying our governor's shut down orders. Why aren't people getting sick?

I watched George Floyd's memorial service in Minneapolis on TV yesterday. There were hundreds of people packed into an auditorium, including the governor or MN, Senator Amy Klobuchar, Al Sharpton, etc.. Some people had masks on, but many did not, and they were singing at the top of their lungs. People were crying, wiping their eyes with their hands, hugging each other...

It just seems to me like something must've fundamentally changed with the virus over the past 3 months. Or is it just the weather? Mutation?

Bruh.  110k+ dead in the usa, and nearly 2M infections.  Over 1k deaths and 22k new infections yesterday.   People are getting sick.  We've significantly slowed the spread of it by shutting shit down - sporting events, concerts, casinos, theme parks, theaters, restaurants, non-essential businesses.  We've adopted widespread mask usage, sanitation, and social distancing.  The vast majority of people are still observing some form of social distancing and limiting how much contact they have with others, especially indoors.

I understand people are still getting sick, but fewer than before. There hasn't yet been a big spike in ER admissions, afaik. Why?

For all the reasons I just listed. 

Quote
We've significantly slowed the spread of it by shutting shit down - sporting events, concerts, casinos, theme parks, theaters, restaurants, non-essential businesses.  We've adopted widespread mask usage, sanitation, and social distancing.  The vast majority of people are still observing some form of social distancing and limiting how much contact they have with others, especially indoors.

The protests are happening outside, and people are largely wearing masks and trying to social distance.  I realize not all of them are, but many of them are which helps to slow it.  Also it takes a couple of weeks of positive cases to show up, and several more for them to start dying.  So if these protests are going to lead to a spike in cases it won't be seen for another 1-2 weeks.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2441 on: June 05, 2020, 09:01:35 AM »
Quote
Also, most people have been quarantining for a while so the odds are still relatively low that anyone in those protests is sick and spreading the virus.

Maybe this is it? Since most people have been social distancing, maybe not very many of them are carrying and spreading the disease, yet anyway...

Yes, there are a ton of confounding factors including this.

And your conspiracy theory neighbor is an asshole, but everyone else doing their part is the only reason he is able to maintain his conspiracy theory and flagrantly disregard safety measures that everyone else is embracing.  Very much like my asshole anti-vax relatives claiming that they have refused to vaccinate against anything, and yet they aren't getting sick.  Conspiracy? No, it's because measles isn't widely circulating because most people aren't anti-vax retards like you and they are the reason your unvaccinated children have a low risk of catching measles despite your idiocy.  You don't need 100% compliance to get measurable results.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2442 on: June 05, 2020, 09:41:27 AM »
Wasn't the big parade they held in Philadelphia in 1918 considered a "super-spreader event"? Looking at images of the parade route in Philly reminds me a lot of photos and videos I've seen recently of people all over our country marching in BLM protests. What's different now @Abe and @js82? I realize the current novel coronavirus is NOT influenza. Is that why, so far anyway, ERs in the US haven't been filling up? Is it because coronaviruses are less transmissible outside than influenza?

Quote
"aggressive Liberty Loan hawkers were far from the greatest threat that day. Lurking among the multitudes was an invisible peril known as influenza—and it loves crowds. Philadelphians were exposed en masse to a lethal contagion widely called “Spanish Flu,” a misnomer created earlier in 1918 when the first published reports of a mysterious epidemic emerged from a wire service in Madrid...Within 72 hours of the parade, every bed in Philadelphia’s 31 hospitals was filled. In the week ending October 5, some 2,600 people in Philadelphia had died from the flu or its complications. A week later, that number rose to more than 4,500. With many of the city’s health professionals pressed into military service, Philadelphia was unprepared for this deluge of death."

In addition to big outdoor protests all over the country, many Americans have already returned to eating at indoor restaurants. A neighbor who believes Covid-19 is a conspiracy keeps posting photos of himself sitting down indoors eating, without a mask, of course, at various restaurants in our area that have been defying our governor's shut down orders. Why aren't people getting sick?

I watched George Floyd's memorial service in Minneapolis on TV yesterday. There were hundreds of people packed into an auditorium, including the governor or MN, Senator Amy Klobuchar, Al Sharpton, etc.. Some people had masks on, but many did not, and they were singing at the top of their lungs. People were crying, wiping their eyes with their hands, hugging each other...

It just seems to me like something must've fundamentally changed with the virus over the past 3 months. Or is it just the weather? Mutation?

Let's give it a few weeks and then we'll know if we're done with the thread.

That sounds reasonable. Maybe it's too soon to proclaim that there's been any actual change. Time will tell, I guess.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2443 on: June 05, 2020, 09:44:03 AM »
"Experts found that just 20% of coronavirus cases resulted in 80% of transmissions. An estimated 70% of infected patients studied didn’t pass the virus at all. [...] Research has found time and again that the risk of coronavirus transmission is higher indoors in poorly ventilated spaces where lots of people have sustained contact. [...]

"Japan’s success stems from adherence to the “3 C’s rule.” The government told people to avoid closed spaces, crowded places, and close-contact settings – all of which are ripe for superspreading events."

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/super-spreader-events-account-for-most-coronavirus-transmission-2020-6

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2444 on: June 05, 2020, 09:44:10 AM »
Quote
Also, most people have been quarantining for a while so the odds are still relatively low that anyone in those protests is sick and spreading the virus.

Maybe this is it? Since most people have been social distancing, maybe not very many of them are carrying and spreading the disease, yet anyway...

Yes, there are a ton of confounding factors including this.

And your conspiracy theory neighbor is an asshole, but everyone else doing their part is the only reason he is able to maintain his conspiracy theory and flagrantly disregard safety measures that everyone else is embracing.  Very much like my asshole anti-vax relatives claiming that they have refused to vaccinate against anything, and yet they aren't getting sick.  Conspiracy? No, it's because measles isn't widely circulating because most people aren't anti-vax retards like you and they are the reason your unvaccinated children have a low risk of catching measles despite your idiocy.  You don't need 100% compliance to get measurable results.

There seems to be a significant amount of overlap between anti-vaxxers and people claiming the virus is a hoax being hyped for nefarious reasons by the deep state.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2445 on: June 05, 2020, 09:57:11 AM »
This report by Axios seems to be showing an increase in cases, out of proportion to what would be expected by continuing increases in testing, at least in AZ, TX and OR...

mm1970

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2446 on: June 05, 2020, 10:15:59 AM »
Fewer than before because people are still somewhat more cautious and not all things are open completely
Basically.

- My company and husbands (and all) are open only to people who HAVE to be there. Otherwise, WFH
- My kids haven't been in school since March 13
- Fewer than 1/4 the normal # of summer camps this year, and they aren't officially allowed yet
- Last time I went to the gym was March 9?  Gym still closed.
- Restaurants barely open, with mask wearing, 6' distancing, out door dining
- Wineries closed for tastings unless they serve a full meal
- No concerts, no large parties, no graduations
- Mask wearing and sanitizing to go grocery shopping, which is every 2 weeks.  Limited people in the stores.
- Doctors doing tele-health
- Walkers, hikers, runners, keeping 6' distance and having masks/ bandanas at the ready
- No potlucks, no birthday parties
- No travel...fewer people on airplanes (my neighbor legit asked me why we wouldn't fly...recycled air bud, it's not the sanitizing, it's 3 flights each direction, 9 hours for one way in a tube with other people breathing).

sui generis

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2447 on: June 06, 2020, 10:26:18 AM »
So, while most of the rest of the country and world are taking various steps to open up, my county just came down harder than ever with a new order on masks that goes into effect on June 7.  Now we have to wear masks outdoors at all times unless we are 30+ feet from someone not in our "bubble".  Before I'm pretty sure it was only 6 feet and there were exemptions for exercising.  So now if you are, say, on a bike ride or jogging, you must have a mask on at basically all times (we are an urban county and I'm exaggerating a little, but you'll be closer than 30 ft to someone else more often than farther).  I'm mystified by this, given our metrics show we have solid PPE, testing capability, etc and are in the top category for hospital capacity.  And, more importantly, to my understanding that there is still little to no evidence that this spreads effectively outdoors?  Or am I wrong about that now?  I've certainly heard hypotheses about it aerozolizing and spreading, but not heard that actual infections have been traced to being 29 feet from someone outdoors, for instance.

Also, part of the order says the 30 ft is to accommodate for the time it takes someone to put a mask on so that they successfully have it on by the time they may be within 6 actual feet of each other, which even I, a far-left activist if there is one, find a little too nanny-state-ish for my tastes.  Tips and advice are fine, but you don't need to regulate how much time it takes me to put on my mask. 

So, I dunno. It's a bit surreal to be living in a place that keeps getting stricter while the entire rest of the world eases up...even while I am worried about how fast those places ease up and the choices they are making (nail salons before beaches and regional parks, really??), I just don't see how this is necessary or good.

js82

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2448 on: June 06, 2020, 11:08:10 AM »
So, while most of the rest of the country and world are taking various steps to open up, my county just came down harder than ever with a new order on masks that goes into effect on June 7.  Now we have to wear masks outdoors at all times unless we are 30+ feet from someone not in our "bubble".  Before I'm pretty sure it was only 6 feet and there were exemptions for exercising.  So now if you are, say, on a bike ride or jogging, you must have a mask on at basically all times (we are an urban county and I'm exaggerating a little, but you'll be closer than 30 ft to someone else more often than farther).  I'm mystified by this, given our metrics show we have solid PPE, testing capability, etc and are in the top category for hospital capacity.  And, more importantly, to my understanding that there is still little to no evidence that this spreads effectively outdoors?  Or am I wrong about that now?  I've certainly heard hypotheses about it aerozolizing and spreading, but not heard that actual infections have been traced to being 29 feet from someone outdoors, for instance.

Also, part of the order says the 30 ft is to accommodate for the time it takes someone to put a mask on so that they successfully have it on by the time they may be within 6 actual feet of each other, which even I, a far-left activist if there is one, find a little too nanny-state-ish for my tastes.  Tips and advice are fine, but you don't need to regulate how much time it takes me to put on my mask. 

So, I dunno. It's a bit surreal to be living in a place that keeps getting stricter while the entire rest of the world eases up...even while I am worried about how fast those places ease up and the choices they are making (nail salons before beaches and regional parks, really??), I just don't see how this is necessary or good.

This is silly.  I'm pretty far on the pro-mask end of the spectrum, but when you're outdoors in a non-crowded location, transmission risk is minimal based on everything we know.

We should expend energy/political capital on things that are actually likely to do good.  This is not going to help in any meaningful way.

sui generis

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2449 on: June 06, 2020, 11:38:54 AM »
So, while most of the rest of the country and world are taking various steps to open up, my county just came down harder than ever with a new order on masks that goes into effect on June 7.  Now we have to wear masks outdoors at all times unless we are 30+ feet from someone not in our "bubble".  Before I'm pretty sure it was only 6 feet and there were exemptions for exercising.  So now if you are, say, on a bike ride or jogging, you must have a mask on at basically all times (we are an urban county and I'm exaggerating a little, but you'll be closer than 30 ft to someone else more often than farther).  I'm mystified by this, given our metrics show we have solid PPE, testing capability, etc and are in the top category for hospital capacity.  And, more importantly, to my understanding that there is still little to no evidence that this spreads effectively outdoors?  Or am I wrong about that now?  I've certainly heard hypotheses about it aerozolizing and spreading, but not heard that actual infections have been traced to being 29 feet from someone outdoors, for instance.

Also, part of the order says the 30 ft is to accommodate for the time it takes someone to put a mask on so that they successfully have it on by the time they may be within 6 actual feet of each other, which even I, a far-left activist if there is one, find a little too nanny-state-ish for my tastes.  Tips and advice are fine, but you don't need to regulate how much time it takes me to put on my mask. 

So, I dunno. It's a bit surreal to be living in a place that keeps getting stricter while the entire rest of the world eases up...even while I am worried about how fast those places ease up and the choices they are making (nail salons before beaches and regional parks, really??), I just don't see how this is necessary or good.

This is silly.  I'm pretty far on the pro-mask end of the spectrum, but when you're outdoors in a non-crowded location, transmission risk is minimal based on everything we know.

We should expend energy/political capital on things that are actually likely to do good.  This is not going to help in any meaningful way.

Definitely agree, if anything, it could reduce trust in the government and their legitimacy, making things worse.

 I just didn't know if I was wrong about some new evidence or research on outdoor transmission.