Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 253713 times)

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3750 on: September 02, 2020, 05:00:54 PM »
Got a question for our Aussie friends. I read an article today about a pregnant woman who was arrested in Victoria for “incitement”. Apparently she decided to organize a protest of the lockdown restrictions via Facebook. What’s up with that?

I’m not so familiar with what civil liberties exist down under beyond the fact that you can be fined or potentially jailed for not voting. Are protests illegal in Oz?
« Last Edit: September 02, 2020, 05:07:49 PM by Buffaloski Boris »

v8rx7guy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3751 on: September 02, 2020, 05:08:25 PM »
Well, apparently Pelosi is finished with flattening the curve...

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pelosi-san-francisco-hair-salon-owner-calls-it-slap-in-the-face

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3752 on: September 02, 2020, 05:22:38 PM »
Got a question for our Aussie friends. I read an article today about a pregnant woman who was arrested in Victoria for “incitement”. Apparently she decided to organize a protest of the lockdown restrictions via Facebook. What’s up with that?

I’m not so familiar with what civil liberties exist down under beyond the fact that you can be fined or potentially jailed for not voting. Are protests illegal in Oz?

You're not allowed to incite others to commit illegal acts (and all protests are illegal under lockdown). Having said that, the police turned a blind eye to the massive Black Lives Matter protest which was also illegal under lockdown. So you know, it all comes down to optics in the end. I guess when Australia has a history of genocide against blacks and mistreating various non-white races you can understand why the current government would pay lip service to the BLM protest, but it still makes no sense from a good governance point of view.

Anyway, the current indication seems to be the government will extend stage 4 lockdown by another two weeks to September 27 (coincidentally when the federal helicopter money starts drying up). Again, I think it's all futile, and I think we should just immediately step down to stage 3 and keep stage 2.5 - 3 restrictions in till we get a vaccine. These restrictions would allow most workers to go back to their jobs but would disallow extended social gatherings. Instead the government seems to be driven by a desire to allow extended family gatherings at Christmas time - this was actually cited by our premier - but at the cost of a longer stage 4 lockdown, which costs jobs.

What's more important, reviving the economy or seeing grandma at Christmas? Fuck me, it should be a no brainer. Just learn to zoom grandma till the vaccine comes around, and learn to stay in nuclear family blocks.

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3753 on: September 02, 2020, 05:52:44 PM »
Well, apparently Pelosi is finished with flattening the curve...

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pelosi-san-francisco-hair-salon-owner-calls-it-slap-in-the-face

Rules for thee; but not for me

-------------

Our MD governor is apparently getting over the curve flattening as well. Threw all the county school systems under the bus in a press conference last week about them opening 100% virtually and then abruptly announced we are moving into Stage 3 reopening at 5pm Friday. Stage 3 is basically all business open; but still with capacity limits. Theatres, music venues, etc.

------------

Strange days continue, everyday is an adventure :D

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3754 on: September 02, 2020, 07:50:57 PM »
Well, apparently Pelosi is finished with flattening the curve...

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pelosi-san-francisco-hair-salon-owner-calls-it-slap-in-the-face

Rules for thee; but not for me

-------------

Our MD governor is apparently getting over the curve flattening as well. Threw all the county school systems under the bus in a press conference last week about them opening 100% virtually and then abruptly announced we are moving into Stage 3 reopening at 5pm Friday. Stage 3 is basically all business open; but still with capacity limits. Theatres, music venues, etc.

------------

Strange days continue, everyday is an adventure :D

I was wondering if this was fake news from our fabulous friends at Fox.    But Pelosi's office confirmed the story to CNN.    (How often do Fox and CNN report the same thing?)    What a terrible lack of leadership.

sui generis

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3755 on: September 02, 2020, 09:31:01 PM »
Well, apparently Pelosi is finished with flattening the curve...

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pelosi-san-francisco-hair-salon-owner-calls-it-slap-in-the-face

Rules for thee; but not for me

-------------

Our MD governor is apparently getting over the curve flattening as well. Threw all the county school systems under the bus in a press conference last week about them opening 100% virtually and then abruptly announced we are moving into Stage 3 reopening at 5pm Friday. Stage 3 is basically all business open; but still with capacity limits. Theatres, music venues, etc.

------------

Strange days continue, everyday is an adventure :D

I was wondering if this was fake news from our fabulous friends at Fox.    But Pelosi's office confirmed the story to CNN.    (How often do Fox and CNN report the same thing?)    What a terrible lack of leadership.

What did her office confirm?  In this local news story below, they talk about how the salon misinformed her about the regulations and, to be fair, how the different layer of regulations could in fact be confusing for everyone.  The article certainly doesn't absolve her, but it hardly seems like she has, oh, promoted untested remedies that can be dangerous but are suspiciously beneficial to his friends' bottom lines (or a million other *actual* lack of leadership examples Trump has shown).  It's not that this shouldn't be pointed out and remedied/held accountable, but it's sort of like screaming about having a hangnail while you also have a gunshot wound to the chest.

 https://sfist.com/2020/09/02/fresno-based-salon-owner-apparently-behind-leak-of-maskless-pelosi-photo-at-sf-hair-salon/?fbclid=IwAR1XcVpIKCvcsHhIB6zHtwJv5LqFl0-xrYPXG-drTtdz5bDpGCrj-gnSiOQ

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3756 on: September 03, 2020, 07:43:24 AM »
Got a question for our Aussie friends. I read an article today about a pregnant woman who was arrested in Victoria for “incitement”. Apparently she decided to organize a protest of the lockdown restrictions via Facebook. What’s up with that?

I’m not so familiar with what civil liberties exist down under beyond the fact that you can be fined or potentially jailed for not voting. Are protests illegal in Oz?

There is some commentary that this young woman is neither “sophisticated” enough, nor well connected enough to talk her way out of the arrest, as others who committed similar acts have done.

A certain cretin of a television presenter was merely “advised” by police not to incite protests, whereas this woman who lacks the resources and public identity has worn the full force of the law for sharing a FB post.

There a multiple problems here as you can see. I don’t blame the police for enforcing a shit law. They have to enforce laws whether they are good or bad. I do blame the police for not being consistent in enforcing the law. They should either fine/arrest everyone or no one.

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3757 on: September 03, 2020, 03:40:54 PM »
Well, apparently Pelosi is finished with flattening the curve...

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pelosi-san-francisco-hair-salon-owner-calls-it-slap-in-the-face

Rules for thee; but not for me

-------------

Our MD governor is apparently getting over the curve flattening as well. Threw all the county school systems under the bus in a press conference last week about them opening 100% virtually and then abruptly announced we are moving into Stage 3 reopening at 5pm Friday. Stage 3 is basically all business open; but still with capacity limits. Theatres, music venues, etc.

------------

Strange days continue, everyday is an adventure :D

I was wondering if this was fake news from our fabulous friends at Fox.    But Pelosi's office confirmed the story to CNN.    (How often do Fox and CNN report the same thing?)    What a terrible lack of leadership.

What did her office confirm?  In this local news story below, they talk about how the salon misinformed her about the regulations and, to be fair, how the different layer of regulations could in fact be confusing for everyone.  The article certainly doesn't absolve her, but it hardly seems like she has, oh, promoted untested remedies that can be dangerous but are suspiciously beneficial to his friends' bottom lines (or a million other *actual* lack of leadership examples Trump has shown).  It's not that this shouldn't be pointed out and remedied/held accountable, but it's sort of like screaming about having a hangnail while you also have a gunshot wound to the chest.

 https://sfist.com/2020/09/02/fresno-based-salon-owner-apparently-behind-leak-of-maskless-pelosi-photo-at-sf-hair-salon/?fbclid=IwAR1XcVpIKCvcsHhIB6zHtwJv5LqFl0-xrYPXG-drTtdz5bDpGCrj-gnSiOQ

It confirmed that she broke the regulations in order to get a haircut.    Maybe she didn't know what the regulations were, but if anyone should know it would be her.

However.   By Trump's leadership standards she's a superior leader.

Wolfpack Mustachian

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3758 on: September 03, 2020, 04:45:36 PM »
Well, apparently Pelosi is finished with flattening the curve...

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pelosi-san-francisco-hair-salon-owner-calls-it-slap-in-the-face

Rules for thee; but not for me

-------------

Our MD governor is apparently getting over the curve flattening as well. Threw all the county school systems under the bus in a press conference last week about them opening 100% virtually and then abruptly announced we are moving into Stage 3 reopening at 5pm Friday. Stage 3 is basically all business open; but still with capacity limits. Theatres, music venues, etc.

------------

Strange days continue, everyday is an adventure :D

I was wondering if this was fake news from our fabulous friends at Fox.    But Pelosi's office confirmed the story to CNN.    (How often do Fox and CNN report the same thing?)    What a terrible lack of leadership.

What did her office confirm?  In this local news story below, they talk about how the salon misinformed her about the regulations and, to be fair, how the different layer of regulations could in fact be confusing for everyone.  The article certainly doesn't absolve her, but it hardly seems like she has, oh, promoted untested remedies that can be dangerous but are suspiciously beneficial to his friends' bottom lines (or a million other *actual* lack of leadership examples Trump has shown).  It's not that this shouldn't be pointed out and remedied/held accountable, but it's sort of like screaming about having a hangnail while you also have a gunshot wound to the chest.

 https://sfist.com/2020/09/02/fresno-based-salon-owner-apparently-behind-leak-of-maskless-pelosi-photo-at-sf-hair-salon/?fbclid=IwAR1XcVpIKCvcsHhIB6zHtwJv5LqFl0-xrYPXG-drTtdz5bDpGCrj-gnSiOQ

It confirmed that she broke the regulations in order to get a haircut.    Maybe she didn't know what the regulations were, but if anyone should know it would be her.

However.   By Trump's leadership standards she's a superior leader.

The issue was, she didn't own up to it. She played the blame game - woe is me, I was set up blah blah blah. Why did Falwell Jr. get so much (completely deserved crap)? Because morality is part and parcel with his situation. In the grand scheme of things, this was very small, but by Pelosi both doing it and not just owning up to her mistake without playing the blame game, she will get legitimate accusations of hypocrisy. This will only lead people to even more think, oh, even the people that promote this stuff don't follow it. That's not what we need right now.

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3759 on: September 03, 2020, 05:06:01 PM »
The issue was, she didn't own up to it. She played the blame game - woe is me, I was set up blah blah blah. Why did Falwell Jr. get so much (completely deserved crap)? Because morality is part and parcel with his situation. In the grand scheme of things, this was very small, but by Pelosi both doing it and not just owning up to her mistake without playing the blame game, she will get legitimate accusations of hypocrisy. This will only lead people to even more think, oh, even the people that promote this stuff don't follow it. That's not what we need right now.

Yeah the hypocrisy is what is grating on me from politicians/celebrities/1 percenters. This was small thing, but it's on top of so many other things it starts to be really frustrating.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3760 on: September 04, 2020, 07:44:48 AM »
By the way... here in Victoria...

One thousand LESS deaths in aged care nationally this year than last... because of better vaccination and infection control. 500 died from covid, but 1,500 fewer from other stuff

“If lower death rates were a secondary benefit of increased control measures, it raises the question whether a large number of preventable deaths have been occurring for years in aged care,” Professor Ibrahim said.

It turns out that when you look after older people properly, they don't die as much. Who could have anticipated this?

Could it be that rather than putting the entire state under house arrest, we could just look after the elderly and infirm properly? Rather than spending hundreds of billions in stimulus, we could just spend a few billion on aged care homes?

Nah. Much better to spend hundreds of billions of dollars and arrest pregnant women for planning a protest.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/coronavirus-nursing-home-death-toll-down-by-1000/news-story/1a951d8ab76edf3ab7804a7b54fd896f

Rosy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3761 on: September 04, 2020, 09:01:47 AM »
Well, apparently Pelosi is finished with flattening the curve...

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pelosi-san-francisco-hair-salon-owner-calls-it-slap-in-the-face

Rules for thee; but not for me

-------------

Our MD governor is apparently getting over the curve flattening as well. Threw all the county school systems under the bus in a press conference last week about them opening 100% virtually and then abruptly announced we are moving into Stage 3 reopening at 5pm Friday. Stage 3 is basically all business open; but still with capacity limits. Theatres, music venues, etc.

------------

Strange days continue, everyday is an adventure :D

I was wondering if this was fake news from our fabulous friends at Fox.    But Pelosi's office confirmed the story to CNN.    (How often do Fox and CNN report the same thing?)    What a terrible lack of leadership.

What did her office confirm?  In this local news story below, they talk about how the salon misinformed her about the regulations and, to be fair, how the different layer of regulations could in fact be confusing for everyone.  The article certainly doesn't absolve her, but it hardly seems like she has, oh, promoted untested remedies that can be dangerous but are suspiciously beneficial to his friends' bottom lines (or a million other *actual* lack of leadership examples Trump has shown).  It's not that this shouldn't be pointed out and remedied/held accountable, but it's sort of like screaming about having a hangnail while you also have a gunshot wound to the chest.

 https://sfist.com/2020/09/02/fresno-based-salon-owner-apparently-behind-leak-of-maskless-pelosi-photo-at-sf-hair-salon/?fbclid=IwAR1XcVpIKCvcsHhIB6zHtwJv5LqFl0-xrYPXG-drTtdz5bDpGCrj-gnSiOQ

It confirmed that she broke the regulations in order to get a haircut.    Maybe she didn't know what the regulations were, but if anyone should know it would be her.

However.   By Trump's leadership standards she's a superior leader.

Shrug - if the worst thing Fox News can come up with is a visit to a hair salon where Pelosi was the only and obviously well observed client then I'm tempted to think - it may well have been a set up.
Regardless - it is rules for thee - but not for me. Still, infinitely better than the actions by our favorite orange man.

Hair salons in Florida are open - as they are in other states. Just sayin'.

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3762 on: September 04, 2020, 05:58:33 PM »
Yeah, I was wondering about that.   Could the hair stylist/salon owner have put together a mini-conspiracy to make her look bad?

She still should have owned it though.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3763 on: September 04, 2020, 06:35:55 PM »
The Pelosi story is not on the level of, say, an unmasked campaign rally in Omaha, but it certainly is poor optics.

Kris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3764 on: September 04, 2020, 06:50:22 PM »
Yeah, I was wondering about that.   Could the hair stylist/salon owner have put together a mini-conspiracy to make her look bad?

She still should have owned it though.

It’s so obvious that’s what the owner did. I mean, it’s feed from their salon. Why would they have released it, knowing it would make them look bad, unless it was to smear Pelosi? And Pelosi’s stylist himself said that the owner unleashed a verbal tirade against Pelosi at time of booking.

Pelosi got caught up in a dumb mistake... she got set up. Personally, I see all these conservatives clutching their pearls about this like she was murdering babies, but these are the same people saying Covid is a hoax, so...

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3765 on: September 04, 2020, 07:00:38 PM »
I think it's stupid that Pelosi is being pillaged. She did something that was objectively low risk.

It's not hypocritical to do something that you advocate others not doing, if you're in different risk brackets.

A quarantine hotel security guard, and his family, should not be allowed to exercise in the community until all have had covid tests processed. A typical professional who works from home, isolated from co-workers, can happily exercise in the community. This is not hypocrisy. It's just double standards. But double standards, in most situations, make sense.

Humans like "fairness", i.e. a lack of double standards, but in most case it's ridiculously stupid not to impose double standards. Unless you think everyone has the same risk matrix regarding catching covid. Which is demonstrably not true, as seen from the fact that the covid hotspots have 20x the active cases compared to non hotspot suburbs.

Wolfpack Mustachian

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3766 on: September 05, 2020, 06:11:02 AM »
Was she set up? Certainly. Was it in general low risk? Absolutely.

Is do what I say, not what I do hypocrisy worthy of being called out? Absolutely. Especially when you act like a spoiled brat about it by whining about being set up instead of admitting you made a mistake.

These all are compatible and true, and it's not clutching pearls to rightfully mock her actions and response to it.

ETA: Most conservatives I know aren't clutching pearls about it - they're not aghast, shocked, or righteously condemning. They're mocking her actions and response, and her actions and response are, imo, worthy of mockery.
« Last Edit: September 05, 2020, 06:13:29 AM by Wolfpack Mustachian »

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3767 on: September 05, 2020, 06:50:25 AM »
By the way... here in Victoria...

One thousand LESS deaths in aged care nationally this year than last... because of better vaccination and infection control. 500 died from covid, but 1,500 fewer from other stuff

“If lower death rates were a secondary benefit of increased control measures, it raises the question whether a large number of preventable deaths have been occurring for years in aged care,” Professor Ibrahim said.

It turns out that when you look after older people properly, they don't die as much. Who could have anticipated this?

Could it be that rather than putting the entire state under house arrest, we could just look after the elderly and infirm properly? Rather than spending hundreds of billions in stimulus, we could just spend a few billion on aged care homes?

Nah. Much better to spend hundreds of billions of dollars and arrest pregnant women for planning a protest.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/coronavirus-nursing-home-death-toll-down-by-1000/news-story/1a951d8ab76edf3ab7804a7b54fd896f

Governments derive their power through the obedience of the governed, not their consent. Authoritarian measures aren't all that surprising.  I was a little surprised though at the poor optics of the police cuffing an obviously pregnant woman for organizing a political protest. More refined authoritarians would get her social media cut off, have a polite police officer write her a very expensive ticket, and then drag her into court at a later date well out of public view. 

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3768 on: September 05, 2020, 07:25:49 AM »
Was she set up? Certainly. Was it in general low risk? Absolutely.

Is do what I say, not what I do hypocrisy worthy of being called out? Absolutely. Especially when you act like a spoiled brat about it by whining about being set up instead of admitting you made a mistake.

These all are compatible and true, and it's not clutching pearls to rightfully mock her actions and response to it.

ETA: Most conservatives I know aren't clutching pearls about it - they're not aghast, shocked, or righteously condemning. They're mocking her actions and response, and her actions and response are, imo, worthy of mockery.

I just don't understand why hypocrisy is seen as a bad thing.

There are many reasons why you might (logically and rationally) say "Do as I say, not as I do".

The egalitarian notion that we should all be subject to the same set of rules in all circumstances makes no sense to me.

It's a bit like requiring everyone to pay a flat rate of tax, really. It doesn't allow for objective differences in situations.

Wolfpack Mustachian

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3769 on: September 05, 2020, 08:08:41 AM »
Was she set up? Certainly. Was it in general low risk? Absolutely.

Is do what I say, not what I do hypocrisy worthy of being called out? Absolutely. Especially when you act like a spoiled brat about it by whining about being set up instead of admitting you made a mistake.

These all are compatible and true, and it's not clutching pearls to rightfully mock her actions and response to it.

ETA: Most conservatives I know aren't clutching pearls about it - they're not aghast, shocked, or righteously condemning. They're mocking her actions and response, and her actions and response are, imo, worthy of mockery.

I just don't understand why hypocrisy is seen as a bad thing.

There are many reasons why you might (logically and rationally) say "Do as I say, not as I do".

The egalitarian notion that we should all be subject to the same set of rules in all circumstances makes no sense to me.

It's a bit like requiring everyone to pay a flat rate of tax, really. It doesn't allow for objective differences in situations.

Well, in this example, assuming you believe that the US is doing a poor job of handling the Corona and fighting an uphill battle against people not wanting to do basic precautions, one of the leading Democrats, supposedly the party championing science for the virus and taking scientifically prescribed measures (i.e. wearing a mask), seen not doing it does a non-zero amount of harm for promoting people wearing masks.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3770 on: September 05, 2020, 08:35:39 AM »
Was she set up? Certainly. Was it in general low risk? Absolutely.

Is do what I say, not what I do hypocrisy worthy of being called out? Absolutely. Especially when you act like a spoiled brat about it by whining about being set up instead of admitting you made a mistake.

These all are compatible and true, and it's not clutching pearls to rightfully mock her actions and response to it.

ETA: Most conservatives I know aren't clutching pearls about it - they're not aghast, shocked, or righteously condemning. They're mocking her actions and response, and her actions and response are, imo, worthy of mockery.

I just don't understand why hypocrisy is seen as a bad thing.

There are many reasons why you might (logically and rationally) say "Do as I say, not as I do".

The egalitarian notion that we should all be subject to the same set of rules in all circumstances makes no sense to me.

It's a bit like requiring everyone to pay a flat rate of tax, really. It doesn't allow for objective differences in situations.

Well, in this example, assuming you believe that the US is doing a poor job of handling the Corona and fighting an uphill battle against people not wanting to do basic precautions, one of the leading Democrats, supposedly the party championing science for the virus and taking scientifically prescribed measures (i.e. wearing a mask), seen not doing it does a non-zero amount of harm for promoting people wearing masks.

I think it's fair to be upset that Pelosi didn't follow the rules.  WhT shedid appeared to be safe and low risk, but she damned well should have known better.  What I don't quite follow is how this is a win for the right in the US.

"A Democrat didn't follow a rule, and set a bad example!"

"Didn't a Republican say that coronavirus was the same as the flu, would've away by the end of spring, that there's no point in wearing masks, that social distancing is was less important than sending people back to non-essential leisure activities, that drinking bleach is a cure, that hdroxychloroquine is a cure, hold dangerous campaign rallies in areas with rapidly growing numbers of cases, telling police to refuse to enforce the law as it relates to mask wearing, and threaten to withhold aid from democratic parts of the country unless enough deference is paid?"

"See!  Both sides are the same!"

Pelosi did something stupid, and should be rightly reproached for it and should apologize for her mistake.  It isn't indicative of widespread Democratic action, or policy.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3771 on: September 05, 2020, 09:00:25 AM »
Was she set up? Certainly. Was it in general low risk? Absolutely.

Is do what I say, not what I do hypocrisy worthy of being called out? Absolutely. Especially when you act like a spoiled brat about it by whining about being set up instead of admitting you made a mistake.

These all are compatible and true, and it's not clutching pearls to rightfully mock her actions and response to it.

ETA: Most conservatives I know aren't clutching pearls about it - they're not aghast, shocked, or righteously condemning. They're mocking her actions and response, and her actions and response are, imo, worthy of mockery.

I just don't understand why hypocrisy is seen as a bad thing.

There are many reasons why you might (logically and rationally) say "Do as I say, not as I do".

The egalitarian notion that we should all be subject to the same set of rules in all circumstances makes no sense to me.

It's a bit like requiring everyone to pay a flat rate of tax, really. It doesn't allow for objective differences in situations.

Well, in this example, assuming you believe that the US is doing a poor job of handling the Corona and fighting an uphill battle against people not wanting to do basic precautions, one of the leading Democrats, supposedly the party championing science for the virus and taking scientifically prescribed measures (i.e. wearing a mask), seen not doing it does a non-zero amount of harm for promoting people wearing masks.

I don't see it as a partisan thing. But it's kinda my point. It's only seen as inconsistent/hypocritical because our messaging is so goddamn basic. "Wear a mask." It should be more like, "Self-assess your likelihood of contracting covid/passing it on to others depending on how many people you encounter in risky situations and then wear a mask in most cases particularly when indoors and social distancing can't be maintained." Under that reasonable and rational guideline, what Pelosi did was fine. It's only because we insist on having blunt, stupid messaging ("wear a mask at all times when you're outside the house!") that it even becomes an issue.

Wolfpack Mustachian

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3772 on: September 05, 2020, 10:54:26 AM »
Was she set up? Certainly. Was it in general low risk? Absolutely.

Is do what I say, not what I do hypocrisy worthy of being called out? Absolutely. Especially when you act like a spoiled brat about it by whining about being set up instead of admitting you made a mistake.

These all are compatible and true, and it's not clutching pearls to rightfully mock her actions and response to it.

ETA: Most conservatives I know aren't clutching pearls about it - they're not aghast, shocked, or righteously condemning. They're mocking her actions and response, and her actions and response are, imo, worthy of mockery.

I just don't understand why hypocrisy is seen as a bad thing.

There are many reasons why you might (logically and rationally) say "Do as I say, not as I do".

The egalitarian notion that we should all be subject to the same set of rules in all circumstances makes no sense to me.

It's a bit like requiring everyone to pay a flat rate of tax, really. It doesn't allow for objective differences in situations.

Well, in this example, assuming you believe that the US is doing a poor job of handling the Corona and fighting an uphill battle against people not wanting to do basic precautions, one of the leading Democrats, supposedly the party championing science for the virus and taking scientifically prescribed measures (i.e. wearing a mask), seen not doing it does a non-zero amount of harm for promoting people wearing masks.

I think it's fair to be upset that Pelosi didn't follow the rules.  WhT shedid appeared to be safe and low risk, but she damned well should have known better.  What I don't quite follow is how this is a win for the right in the US.

"A Democrat didn't follow a rule, and set a bad example!"

"Didn't a Republican say that coronavirus was the same as the flu, would've away by the end of spring, that there's no point in wearing masks, that social distancing is was less important than sending people back to non-essential leisure activities, that drinking bleach is a cure, that hdroxychloroquine is a cure, hold dangerous campaign rallies in areas with rapidly growing numbers of cases, telling police to refuse to enforce the law as it relates to mask wearing, and threaten to withhold aid from democratic parts of the country unless enough deference is paid?"

"See!  Both sides are the same!"

Pelosi did something stupid, and should be rightly reproached for it and should apologize for her mistake.  It isn't indicative of widespread Democratic action, or policy.

I don't think it should be a "win" for the right for sure. It's not the same as what Trump's putting out for sure. "she damned well should have known better." - this is exactly where I'm at. You're one of the top 5 people with authority in the United States. Act like it...

Wolfpack Mustachian

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3773 on: September 05, 2020, 10:55:57 AM »
Was she set up? Certainly. Was it in general low risk? Absolutely.

Is do what I say, not what I do hypocrisy worthy of being called out? Absolutely. Especially when you act like a spoiled brat about it by whining about being set up instead of admitting you made a mistake.

These all are compatible and true, and it's not clutching pearls to rightfully mock her actions and response to it.

ETA: Most conservatives I know aren't clutching pearls about it - they're not aghast, shocked, or righteously condemning. They're mocking her actions and response, and her actions and response are, imo, worthy of mockery.

I just don't understand why hypocrisy is seen as a bad thing.

There are many reasons why you might (logically and rationally) say "Do as I say, not as I do".

The egalitarian notion that we should all be subject to the same set of rules in all circumstances makes no sense to me.

It's a bit like requiring everyone to pay a flat rate of tax, really. It doesn't allow for objective differences in situations.

Well, in this example, assuming you believe that the US is doing a poor job of handling the Corona and fighting an uphill battle against people not wanting to do basic precautions, one of the leading Democrats, supposedly the party championing science for the virus and taking scientifically prescribed measures (i.e. wearing a mask), seen not doing it does a non-zero amount of harm for promoting people wearing masks.

I don't see it as a partisan thing. But it's kinda my point. It's only seen as inconsistent/hypocritical because our messaging is so goddamn basic. "Wear a mask." It should be more like, "Self-assess your likelihood of contracting covid/passing it on to others depending on how many people you encounter in risky situations and then wear a mask in most cases particularly when indoors and social distancing can't be maintained." Under that reasonable and rational guideline, what Pelosi did was fine. It's only because we insist on having blunt, stupid messaging ("wear a mask at all times when you're outside the house!") that it even becomes an issue.

It's beyond a partisan thing. It's a thing where one person is the leading representative of a group that promotes doing a certain thing. Then they're caught not doing that thing. Then they don't apologize but get all whiny when they're caught. You don't believe that all people should wear masks...that's fine. That's not what Pelosi is purportedly representing. That's the problem.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3774 on: September 05, 2020, 08:34:13 PM »
Dan Andrews just announced Victoria's "roadmap" out of lockdown. It's fucking stupid, if you ask me.

Let me first say that it actually ticks all the boxes for "me", personally. It allows singles to see each other in bubbles, which obviates the 5km travelling restriction. That's all I need as it allows me to see friends/dates and to go on walks/exercise dates with them. Also enables me to see my family.

But our retail and hospitality won't open for another 6-8 weeks, till daily cases average 5-10 or less. Think about this...you currently have non-essential stuff like liquor stores open, but poor Jane who works at a department store or who is a hairdresser can't open for another 2 months until we've eliminated the virus? How stupid is that?

We already know where the virus is spreading. It's spreading through hospitals, aged care centres and a handful of suburbs. We could get exactly the same results by locking down those suburbs and families of those workers. Instead, Dan is making all of Melbourne suffer from industrial pain solely for the benefit of optics.

And Dan's stated reason is that he wants us to be covid-normal by Christmas....under our current plans we'll have indoor gatherings of 20+ people and outdoor gatherings up to 50-100 people by Christmas.

What the fuck! Who CARES about having massive Christmas parties? Doing that, getting there, takes such an enormous economic toll on retail and hospitality in the months leading up to Christmas. Dan is essentially saying that seeing your grandma on Christmas day is worth more than the wages of retail workers.

It's poor reasoning, and political points scoring at its worst.

I'm somewhat grateful that singles have now suddenly been given a raft of overdue exemptions, but I think the big picture is sorely missing.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3775 on: September 05, 2020, 10:32:13 PM »

I think Andrews may not even last till October, and that whoever takes over will accelerate things.

Medical dissent is rising, they're getting signatories to an open letter.

"In short, the medical, psychological and social costs of the lockdown are disproportionately enormous compared to the limited good being done by current policies, and are relevant factors to be taken into account by any responsible government."

https://www.coviddoctorsnetwork.com

Gin1984

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3776 on: September 10, 2020, 06:03:53 AM »
Was she set up? Certainly. Was it in general low risk? Absolutely.

Is do what I say, not what I do hypocrisy worthy of being called out? Absolutely. Especially when you act like a spoiled brat about it by whining about being set up instead of admitting you made a mistake.

These all are compatible and true, and it's not clutching pearls to rightfully mock her actions and response to it.

ETA: Most conservatives I know aren't clutching pearls about it - they're not aghast, shocked, or righteously condemning. They're mocking her actions and response, and her actions and response are, imo, worthy of mockery.

I just don't understand why hypocrisy is seen as a bad thing.

There are many reasons why you might (logically and rationally) say "Do as I say, not as I do".

The egalitarian notion that we should all be subject to the same set of rules in all circumstances makes no sense to me.

It's a bit like requiring everyone to pay a flat rate of tax, really. It doesn't allow for objective differences in situations.

Well, in this example, assuming you believe that the US is doing a poor job of handling the Corona and fighting an uphill battle against people not wanting to do basic precautions, one of the leading Democrats, supposedly the party championing science for the virus and taking scientifically prescribed measures (i.e. wearing a mask), seen not doing it does a non-zero amount of harm for promoting people wearing masks.

I don't see it as a partisan thing. But it's kinda my point. It's only seen as inconsistent/hypocritical because our messaging is so goddamn basic. "Wear a mask." It should be more like, "Self-assess your likelihood of contracting covid/passing it on to others depending on how many people you encounter in risky situations and then wear a mask in most cases particularly when indoors and social distancing can't be maintained." Under that reasonable and rational guideline, what Pelosi did was fine. It's only because we insist on having blunt, stupid messaging ("wear a mask at all times when you're outside the house!") that it even becomes an issue.
The mask is to protect others around you, mostly. Given her position, she is likely tested twice a week.  If she is negative, her not wearing a mask has no risk as she is not infectious. 

maisymouser

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3777 on: September 10, 2020, 06:19:58 AM »
Was she set up? Certainly. Was it in general low risk? Absolutely.

Is do what I say, not what I do hypocrisy worthy of being called out? Absolutely. Especially when you act like a spoiled brat about it by whining about being set up instead of admitting you made a mistake.

These all are compatible and true, and it's not clutching pearls to rightfully mock her actions and response to it.

ETA: Most conservatives I know aren't clutching pearls about it - they're not aghast, shocked, or righteously condemning. They're mocking her actions and response, and her actions and response are, imo, worthy of mockery.

I just don't understand why hypocrisy is seen as a bad thing.

There are many reasons why you might (logically and rationally) say "Do as I say, not as I do".

The egalitarian notion that we should all be subject to the same set of rules in all circumstances makes no sense to me.

It's a bit like requiring everyone to pay a flat rate of tax, really. It doesn't allow for objective differences in situations.

Well, in this example, assuming you believe that the US is doing a poor job of handling the Corona and fighting an uphill battle against people not wanting to do basic precautions, one of the leading Democrats, supposedly the party championing science for the virus and taking scientifically prescribed measures (i.e. wearing a mask), seen not doing it does a non-zero amount of harm for promoting people wearing masks.

I don't see it as a partisan thing. But it's kinda my point. It's only seen as inconsistent/hypocritical because our messaging is so goddamn basic. "Wear a mask." It should be more like, "Self-assess your likelihood of contracting covid/passing it on to others depending on how many people you encounter in risky situations and then wear a mask in most cases particularly when indoors and social distancing can't be maintained." Under that reasonable and rational guideline, what Pelosi did was fine. It's only because we insist on having blunt, stupid messaging ("wear a mask at all times when you're outside the house!") that it even becomes an issue.
The mask is to protect others around you, mostly. Given her position, she is likely tested twice a week.  If she is negative, her not wearing a mask has no risk as she is not infectious.

There is evidence coming out lately that wearing a mask can drop the severity of disease should you contract COVID.

I agree with @Wolfpack Mustachian - the actions, while probably not significant at that EXACT moment in time, are ridiculous considering her position in politics and the inconsistent messaging from our leaders.

FWIW, I would have been wearing a mask in that situation, whether or not I was Pelosi. Indoors + close proximity to someone outside of my family = automatic wear-a-mask instinct.

Gin1984

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3778 on: September 10, 2020, 06:28:37 AM »
Was she set up? Certainly. Was it in general low risk? Absolutely.

Is do what I say, not what I do hypocrisy worthy of being called out? Absolutely. Especially when you act like a spoiled brat about it by whining about being set up instead of admitting you made a mistake.

These all are compatible and true, and it's not clutching pearls to rightfully mock her actions and response to it.

ETA: Most conservatives I know aren't clutching pearls about it - they're not aghast, shocked, or righteously condemning. They're mocking her actions and response, and her actions and response are, imo, worthy of mockery.

I just don't understand why hypocrisy is seen as a bad thing.

There are many reasons why you might (logically and rationally) say "Do as I say, not as I do".

The egalitarian notion that we should all be subject to the same set of rules in all circumstances makes no sense to me.

It's a bit like requiring everyone to pay a flat rate of tax, really. It doesn't allow for objective differences in situations.

Well, in this example, assuming you believe that the US is doing a poor job of handling the Corona and fighting an uphill battle against people not wanting to do basic precautions, one of the leading Democrats, supposedly the party championing science for the virus and taking scientifically prescribed measures (i.e. wearing a mask), seen not doing it does a non-zero amount of harm for promoting people wearing masks.

I don't see it as a partisan thing. But it's kinda my point. It's only seen as inconsistent/hypocritical because our messaging is so goddamn basic. "Wear a mask." It should be more like, "Self-assess your likelihood of contracting covid/passing it on to others depending on how many people you encounter in risky situations and then wear a mask in most cases particularly when indoors and social distancing can't be maintained." Under that reasonable and rational guideline, what Pelosi did was fine. It's only because we insist on having blunt, stupid messaging ("wear a mask at all times when you're outside the house!") that it even becomes an issue.
The mask is to protect others around you, mostly. Given her position, she is likely tested twice a week.  If she is negative, her not wearing a mask has no risk as she is not infectious.

There is evidence coming out lately that wearing a mask can drop the severity of disease should you contract COVID.

I agree with @Wolfpack Mustachian - the actions, while probably not significant at that EXACT moment in time, are ridiculous considering her position in politics and the inconsistent messaging from our leaders.

FWIW, I would have been wearing a mask in that situation, whether or not I was Pelosi. Indoors + close proximity to someone outside of my family = automatic wear-a-mask instinct.
Can you please link to a study that shows that?

slappy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3779 on: September 10, 2020, 08:04:14 AM »
Was she set up? Certainly. Was it in general low risk? Absolutely.

Is do what I say, not what I do hypocrisy worthy of being called out? Absolutely. Especially when you act like a spoiled brat about it by whining about being set up instead of admitting you made a mistake.

These all are compatible and true, and it's not clutching pearls to rightfully mock her actions and response to it.

ETA: Most conservatives I know aren't clutching pearls about it - they're not aghast, shocked, or righteously condemning. They're mocking her actions and response, and her actions and response are, imo, worthy of mockery.

I just don't understand why hypocrisy is seen as a bad thing.

There are many reasons why you might (logically and rationally) say "Do as I say, not as I do".

The egalitarian notion that we should all be subject to the same set of rules in all circumstances makes no sense to me.

It's a bit like requiring everyone to pay a flat rate of tax, really. It doesn't allow for objective differences in situations.

Well, in this example, assuming you believe that the US is doing a poor job of handling the Corona and fighting an uphill battle against people not wanting to do basic precautions, one of the leading Democrats, supposedly the party championing science for the virus and taking scientifically prescribed measures (i.e. wearing a mask), seen not doing it does a non-zero amount of harm for promoting people wearing masks.

I don't see it as a partisan thing. But it's kinda my point. It's only seen as inconsistent/hypocritical because our messaging is so goddamn basic. "Wear a mask." It should be more like, "Self-assess your likelihood of contracting covid/passing it on to others depending on how many people you encounter in risky situations and then wear a mask in most cases particularly when indoors and social distancing can't be maintained." Under that reasonable and rational guideline, what Pelosi did was fine. It's only because we insist on having blunt, stupid messaging ("wear a mask at all times when you're outside the house!") that it even becomes an issue.

I know this sounds terrible, but the reason we have blunt, stupid messaging, is because we have blunt, stupid people. Your comment about self assessing means nothing to people. People in general are just not good at that level of thought because we are selfish. Our own need for sports/haircuts/vacations is more important than self assessing and unknown risk to others. I don't mean to say all people are stupid or anything like that. I just think that we need something simple and easy to understand. We can work up to the self assessment part. The issue becomes even larger when you think about the school/parents working situation. In that case, "my kid might be sick, but I'm not sure and I can't afford to miss work" is what happens. Locally we had a case where the kid was tested and the parents sent him to school before getting the results, and it turned out to be positive. Unfortunately, this is why we have governing bodies. We simply can't trust everyone to self assess properly and consider the impact on other people. 

fattest_foot

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3780 on: September 10, 2020, 08:08:22 AM »
It's amazing to me we have people saying Pelosi should be able to assess the risk for herself and determine the best course of action. And yet, the government has decreed that normal citizens are NOT allowed to do the same.

And these same people saying it's okay for Pelosi argue that we need to keep the lockdowns for some reason they can't quite explain.

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3781 on: September 10, 2020, 08:26:33 AM »
Was she set up? Certainly. Was it in general low risk? Absolutely.

Is do what I say, not what I do hypocrisy worthy of being called out? Absolutely. Especially when you act like a spoiled brat about it by whining about being set up instead of admitting you made a mistake.

These all are compatible and true, and it's not clutching pearls to rightfully mock her actions and response to it.

ETA: Most conservatives I know aren't clutching pearls about it - they're not aghast, shocked, or righteously condemning. They're mocking her actions and response, and her actions and response are, imo, worthy of mockery.

I just don't understand why hypocrisy is seen as a bad thing.

There are many reasons why you might (logically and rationally) say "Do as I say, not as I do".

The egalitarian notion that we should all be subject to the same set of rules in all circumstances makes no sense to me.

It's a bit like requiring everyone to pay a flat rate of tax, really. It doesn't allow for objective differences in situations.

Well, in this example, assuming you believe that the US is doing a poor job of handling the Corona and fighting an uphill battle against people not wanting to do basic precautions, one of the leading Democrats, supposedly the party championing science for the virus and taking scientifically prescribed measures (i.e. wearing a mask), seen not doing it does a non-zero amount of harm for promoting people wearing masks.

I don't see it as a partisan thing. But it's kinda my point. It's only seen as inconsistent/hypocritical because our messaging is so goddamn basic. "Wear a mask." It should be more like, "Self-assess your likelihood of contracting covid/passing it on to others depending on how many people you encounter in risky situations and then wear a mask in most cases particularly when indoors and social distancing can't be maintained." Under that reasonable and rational guideline, what Pelosi did was fine. It's only because we insist on having blunt, stupid messaging ("wear a mask at all times when you're outside the house!") that it even becomes an issue.
The mask is to protect others around you, mostly. Given her position, she is likely tested twice a week.  If she is negative, her not wearing a mask has no risk as she is not infectious.

Thats a sort of ridiculous sentiment I think. Doctors, Nurses, EMT's, pro athletes, etc. Are getting tested weekly. So none of them should wear a mask in public?

Thats a quick way to have the general public "I've had a negative test so I'm good" . soon nobody will be wearing masks with that attitude.

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3782 on: September 10, 2020, 08:29:51 AM »
It's amazing to me we have people saying Pelosi should be able to assess the risk for herself and determine the best course of action. And yet, the government has decreed that normal citizens are NOT allowed to do the same.

And these same people saying it's okay for Pelosi argue that we need to keep the lockdowns for some reason they can't quite explain.

Yup, just more of the us vs them. Good for the goose bot for the gander, etc.

I think people are coming around to the idea of trying to protect the elderly and most at risk and moving forward in a sustainable way. But it'll take time to figure rhat out; I haven't heard much about another strick round of lockdowns and I dont imagine the US would tolerate it again.

Biggest hurdle to me now is figuring out schools. Virtual school is horrible IMO.

SwordGuy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3783 on: September 10, 2020, 11:52:58 AM »
Biggest hurdle to me now is figuring out schools. Virtual school is horrible IMO.

So are funerals for children IMO.

Eowynd

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3784 on: September 10, 2020, 12:08:08 PM »
Biggest hurdle to me now is figuring out schools. Virtual school is horrible IMO.

So are funerals for children IMO.

Dramatic, much?

I used to think that people on this forum were better than average at using math and statistics in daily life.  Seems I was wrong about that.

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3785 on: September 10, 2020, 12:25:15 PM »
Biggest hurdle to me now is figuring out schools. Virtual school is horrible IMO.

So are funerals for children IMO.

Dramatic, much?

I used to think that people on this forum were better than average at using math and statistics in daily life.  Seems I was wrong about that.

I know right. I can't even on here sometimes :/

Biggest hurdle to me now is figuring out schools. Virtual school is horrible IMO.

So are funerals for children IMO.

FWIW I agree with you and thats a big part of why I think we need to get kids back in school.

First week of VS my 9 year old nephew tried to run away from home to "live in the woods so he wouldn't have to stare at a screen all day"

Meanwhile my own daughter suffers from anxiety/depression and has had some pretty scary times.

My wife teaches at a very low income high needs school and shes dealt with multiple cases of abuse; kids/siblings committing suicide; older siblings being shot, etc. All pre covid. I cant even imagine what those kids are going through now....and she can't ask them because she only gets about 20-50% logging onto Virtual school on any given day.

So I'll personally take the smaller risk of Covid over these other risk. YMMV of course.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3786 on: September 10, 2020, 12:27:30 PM »
Biggest hurdle to me now is figuring out schools. Virtual school is horrible IMO.

So are funerals for children IMO.

The flu is statistically far more deadly for people under 21 than covid 19.  Maybe we should just permanently shut down everything.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3787 on: September 10, 2020, 01:12:09 PM »
Can you post a source on that?  Everything I've read indicates it's deadlier than the flu for all age groups. 

I also don't take much solace in knowing the children in my family may have a statistically higher survival rate compared with the flu (I still don't believe this is true until I can see some credible sources) but they've killed off their grandparents, and the grandparents of school mates in the meantime.

I'm also unsure of how shoving all kids back into classrooms is a panacea for their short attention spans and anxiety/depression.  Kids still get anxiety and depression when attending school.  And no kid that tries to run away to live in the woods to avoid "staring at a screen all day" is going to be 100% happy sitting in a classroom all day every day.

bigblock440

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3788 on: September 10, 2020, 01:41:10 PM »
Can you post a source on that?  Everything I've read indicates it's deadlier than the flu for all age groups. 


Here's one:

https://www.wyff4.com/article/answering-coronavirus-data-questions-mortality-compared-to-seasonal-flu/33010377

Doesn't seem that flu deaths is broken down in the same way, so it's a bit more effort to get an apples-apples comparison of the two.

chemistk

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3789 on: September 10, 2020, 01:56:04 PM »
Re: Our kids are going to die because they're going to school.

It's not the schools we should even be worried about. It's all the creative ways parents who are doing virtual schooling (by choice or because they had no choice) have come with. I've seen so many people posting pictures of the "home-schools" they've created to mitigate the difficulties of virtual learning.

Many of these people have come together to send their kids to one house each day and the parents at that house take the day off work or move their schedules around so they can supervise the 4-10+ kids sitting around on various technology doing virtual school. No masks. No sanitizer. Nothing.

Granted, it's a smart choice - better to give the kids some focused attention from a "proctor" than occasional assistance from an overextended parent trying to juggle the other kids/work/etc.

Meanwhile, my son - at in-person kindergarten - wears his mask all day as do his classmates. They are seated 6'+ from each other. He has an assigned seat on the bus. Non-school employees are not allowed into the building unless absolutely necessary.

Let's not continue to make shock-statements about how our kids will all die because they went to school. True that some districts will have a harder time than others, but the alternatives aren't any better at mitigating the spread of this virus. It's not going away. It's never going away. A vaccine won't solve anything in the interim. We, with kids, have to continue to live our lives and accept that our kids may be at a higher risk.

I'm not sending my kids to school sick. They wear masks. They wash their hands. They don't come on errands.

I can't shelter my kids from everything. I can't turn my house into a bunker for 1-2 years.

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3790 on: September 10, 2020, 01:58:05 PM »
I'm also unsure of how shoving all kids back into classrooms is a panacea for their short attention spans and anxiety/depression.  Kids still get anxiety and depression when attending school.  And no kid that tries to run away to live in the woods to avoid "staring at a screen all day" is going to be 100% happy sitting in a classroom all day every day.

Sure its not a panacea; but keeping schools virtual isn't a pacacea from kids spreading the disease either.

My neighbor whose kid has never done any extra curricula activites is now playing softball,swimming, and doing girl scouts.

Half the people I know have thier kids in some type of daycare or distance learning consortia; etc. And I get the impression thats less masking then schools.

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3791 on: September 10, 2020, 01:59:53 PM »
We've already talked about this over in the kid forum, but to be blunt, if you don't experience in person school/aren't around elementary schools much, you need to understand some stuff:
-Lots of kids access the *majority* of their food at school (as in, 2 and sometimes 3 meals).
-Many kids do not have ANY responsible adult available to make sure they are doing their schoolwork during the day
-Tons of kids access mental health/counseling/family intervention services via school. Lots of them have shitty parents or shitty home lives or get beat up or worse by a relative or neighbor... and the first line of defense/only easily accessible resource for them is the staff at school.

School is probably the most essential possible service for a huge portion of our society. I'd rather not have the fire department, or something. Even if Covid was pretty darn dangerous for kids (and so far, it looks like it's really not) I'd probably support in person school for anyone who needs it, because it's just that important.

-W

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3792 on: September 10, 2020, 02:09:36 PM »
Here is another way of looking at it, at a population level (not infection rate, since the denominator is total population and numerator is known cases):

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Mortality Rate by age per 100k population: Influenza, 2018-2019:

0-4 (poor babies!): 1.3
5-17: 0.4
18-49: 1.8
50-64: 9
65+: 48.7

Estimated Mortality Rate by Age per 100k population, COVID-19
0-4: 0.17
5-14: 0.07
15-45: 4.0
46-64: 37.6
65+: 265

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

If you look at the death rates from influenza or COVID-19, you can see that the latter is more deadly at a population level around age 15 (Table 1).


Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3793 on: September 10, 2020, 02:27:42 PM »
Another thing to look at is excess deaths. Baseline deaths per week in the US are 51-60k (higher in winter, lower in summer).

In the latter half of April, there were 17k deaths in one week from CovID, about 30% of all predicted deaths for spring weeks.

In the latter half of July, there were 7k deaths in one week from COVID, about 14% of all predicted deaths for summer weeks.

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/muzy-jte6/data

Regarding the vaccines:
the Oxford/astrazeneca vaccine trial is paused for new volunteers due a safety incident requiring review. These are generally not even announced publicly because they're fairly routine, but obviously everyone wants updates. There is a possibility that a patient had inflammation of the spinal cord, which can very rarely be caused by the attenuated (non-COVID) virus used for delivering this vaccine. It is reversible, sometimes requiring steroids. I'm anticipating that the event will be determined to be unrelated to vaccination, and the trial will continue.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2020, 02:43:34 PM by Abe »

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3794 on: September 10, 2020, 02:57:26 PM »
Re: Our kids are going to die because they're going to school.

It's not the schools we should even be worried about. It's all the creative ways parents who are doing virtual schooling (by choice or because they had no choice) have come with. I've seen so many people posting pictures of the "home-schools" they've created to mitigate the difficulties of virtual learning.

Many of these people have come together to send their kids to one house each day and the parents at that house take the day off work or move their schedules around so they can supervise the 4-10+ kids sitting around on various technology doing virtual school. No masks. No sanitizer. Nothing.

Granted, it's a smart choice - better to give the kids some focused attention from a "proctor" than occasional assistance from an overextended parent trying to juggle the other kids/work/etc.

Meanwhile, my son - at in-person kindergarten - wears his mask all day as do his classmates. They are seated 6'+ from each other. He has an assigned seat on the bus. Non-school employees are not allowed into the building unless absolutely necessary.

Let's not continue to make shock-statements about how our kids will all die because they went to school. True that some districts will have a harder time than others, but the alternatives aren't any better at mitigating the spread of this virus. It's not going away. It's never going away. A vaccine won't solve anything in the interim. We, with kids, have to continue to live our lives and accept that our kids may be at a higher risk.

I'm not sending my kids to school sick. They wear masks. They wash their hands. They don't come on errands.

I can't shelter my kids from everything. I can't turn my house into a bunker for 1-2 years.

I think in the first sentence you meant to have a "not" in there?

Yes, well said. We** are going to work, grocery stores, sports, getting repairs done on our houses, traveling, getting cars fixed, running errands etc. We are doing it all differently then we did In February; but we are doing it. There is no reason we can't make adjustments for school the same way.

*the collective "we", not just my family

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3795 on: September 10, 2020, 03:01:03 PM »
We've already talked about this over in the kid forum, but to be blunt, if you don't experience in person school/aren't around elementary schools much, you need to understand some stuff:
-Lots of kids access the *majority* of their food at school (as in, 2 and sometimes 3 meals).
-Many kids do not have ANY responsible adult available to make sure they are doing their schoolwork during the day
-Tons of kids access mental health/counseling/family intervention services via school. Lots of them have shitty parents or shitty home lives or get beat up or worse by a relative or neighbor... and the first line of defense/only easily accessible resource for them is the staff at school.

School is probably the most essential possible service for a huge portion of our society. I'd rather not have the fire department, or something. Even if Covid was pretty darn dangerous for kids (and so far, it looks like it's really not) I'd probably support in person school for anyone who needs it, because it's just that important.

-W

Wait a minute you mean outside of this Forum not everyone is FI or can afford to have a stay at home parent!! <sarcasm>

And for those with the means to do a proper home school experience they can certainly opt out of in person learning for a year (or two?) but I feel you should have a choice.  And if 20-50% do opt for virtual or homeschool or whatever it would just make it that much easier to social distance and decrease class size for the kids that do need the in person learning.

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3796 on: September 10, 2020, 03:06:23 PM »
Here is another way of looking at it, at a population level (not infection rate, since the denominator is total population and numerator is known cases):

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Mortality Rate by age per 100k population: Influenza, 2018-2019:

0-4 (poor babies!): 1.3
5-17: 0.4
18-49: 1.8
50-64: 9
65+: 48.7

Estimated Mortality Rate by Age per 100k population, COVID-19
0-4: 0.17
5-14: 0.07
15-45: 4.0
46-64: 37.6
65+: 265

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

If you look at the death rates from influenza or COVID-19, you can see that the latter is more deadly at a population level around age 15 (Table 1).





Another thing to look at is excess deaths. Baseline deaths per week in the US are 51-60k (higher in winter, lower in summer).

In the latter half of April, there were 17k deaths in one week from CovID, about 30% of all predicted deaths for spring weeks.

In the latter half of July, there were 7k deaths in one week from COVID, about 14% of all predicted deaths for summer weeks.

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/muzy-jte6/data

Is there a list/chart somewhere showing the average deaths for 2020 so far compared to other years? Like as to compare where we are in that 51-60K average. Like I assume that April week that was well in excess like 70-80K; but what about other weeks/currently?

I guess I'm just curious when/if we'll have a better idea of how many excess deaths there were from Covid; IE like how many of the folks (especially in the 65+ range) could/would have potentially died from another cause (big ones typically heart disease, cancer, etc.)

I mean I guess that's impossible to really ever know, but just curious if there is a study or list about that so far.

----------

Regardless, thanks for the links and the info Abe.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3797 on: September 10, 2020, 03:15:24 PM »
Wait a minute you mean outside of this Forum not everyone is FI or can afford to have a stay at home parent!! <sarcasm>

Go read the thread, there were people who basically said, "what would be the big deal if we just cancel school this year?" They literally had never considered that school affected anyone but their gifted kids who can stay home and read Harry Potter and do Sudoku with the nanny.

Gotta love clueless rich people. I'm sure they all have great We Believe yard signs, though, so it's totally fine.

-W

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3798 on: September 10, 2020, 03:17:51 PM »
Here is another way of looking at it, at a population level (not infection rate, since the denominator is total population and numerator is known cases):

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Mortality Rate by age per 100k population: Influenza, 2018-2019:

0-4 (poor babies!): 1.3
5-17: 0.4
18-49: 1.8
50-64: 9
65+: 48.7

Estimated Mortality Rate by Age per 100k population, COVID-19
0-4: 0.17
5-14: 0.07
15-45: 4.0
46-64: 37.6
65+: 265

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

If you look at the death rates from influenza or COVID-19, you can see that the latter is more deadly at a population level around age 15 (Table 1).


Here is another way of looking at it, at a population level (not infection rate, since the denominator is total population and numerator is known cases):

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Mortality Rate by age per 100k population: Influenza, 2018-2019:

0-4 (poor babies!): 1.3
5-17: 0.4
18-49: 1.8
50-64: 9
65+: 48.7

Estimated Mortality Rate by Age per 100k population, COVID-19
0-4: 0.17
5-14: 0.07
15-45: 4.0
46-64: 37.6
65+: 265

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

If you look at the death rates from influenza or COVID-19, you can see that the latter is more deadly at a population level around age 15 (Table 1).


Thanks Abe for showing some of the problems with the initial question!


Let's say you have if there's disease A that has 100% mortality rate but transmits incredibly rarely, and you have disease B that has 1% mortality rate but transmits very, very easily.  Disease A kills every single person who contracts it . . . but B is significantly deadlier and will kill far more people in a given population.

Talking about mortality rate without taking into account pathogenicity is not really telling the whole story at all.


(Of course, this whole line of questioning also ignores the many, many reported cases of possibly permanent non-fatal damage that coronavirus does do people.)

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3799 on: September 10, 2020, 03:48:46 PM »
(Of course, this whole line of questioning also ignores the many, many reported cases of possibly permanent non-fatal damage that coronavirus does do people.)

Can the flu (or other viruses) also cause permanent non fatal damage as well?

Not trying to be facetious; just genuinely asking if anyone knows.

Just for example my Father has permanent lung damage from a bad case of Pneumonia he had in his 40's (65 now)