Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 299360 times)

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4150 on: October 18, 2020, 10:30:39 PM »
It makes zero sense to me to start out talking about coercive measures the government might take to try to force people into getting a vaccine that doesn't even exist yet. As I think habanero said above, it's possible that with covid we may not need as many people to get vaccinated as with some other, more contagious, diseases like measles, in order to wipe it out. If 2 or 3 years from now the world is still struggling with constant reinfections of covid by people who travel abroad, then, yeah, maybe then it would make sense for governments to start becoming more aggressive in their strategies for trying to get more people vaccinated. At this point, though, I think we should concentrate on coming up with safe vaccines that work. That'll be the best way to get more people on board with getting vaccinated. If anti-vaxxers look around and see that those of us who have gotten the vaccine aren't keeling over and that we are able to return to our normal lives, without fear of getting sick, then many of them will voluntarily get vaccinated themselves. I just think Joe Biden, and others, should save their authoritarian rhetoric for a later date.

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4151 on: October 19, 2020, 03:56:04 AM »
For an epidemic to eventually fizzle out you need immunity in 1 - 1/R of the population, where R is the effective reproduction number. For Covid-19 R is estimated around 3, which means 1 - 1/3 = 66.7% of the population needs immunity one way or the other. The easy way to think about this is that if on average every person infects 3 others, but 2 of those have immunity then they won't get the disease and won't spread it on so the reproductive number will stay under 1. This does not mean that noone will get it of course, it just means that the rate of infections will go down instead of up and eventually it will almost completely die out.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4152 on: October 19, 2020, 07:22:12 AM »
I don't see why a vaccine shouldn't be mandatory (Subject to medical issues, both general to the larger population and confined to any given individual).

If available next year, a vaccine for covid will have been approved faster and with fewer safety checks than a normal vaccine.  So when you say you support a mandatory vaccine subject to medical issues . . . what exactly do you mean?  The medical issues will be unknown when it's available.

if people don't want to get the vaccination they shouldn't be thrown in jail, but I would advocate stopping payment of any and all medical/welfare/social security benefits till they do - again, subject to medical exemptions.

Maybe it's bad "optics" but it's time we stopped giving any thought to the views of the anti-vaxxer crowd. See how tough they are when they can no longer suck from the state's teat.

Is this going to include the people who suck the most from the state's teat - those who pay reduced taxes on investment income?

obstinate

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4153 on: October 19, 2020, 09:42:51 AM »
See how tough they are when they can no longer suck from the state's teat.
Damn dude. "Poor people should be the subject of coercive medical experimentation" is a take! Maybe that's not what you meant, but it is the direct implication of what you said.

Requiring the vaccination for school attendance or the usage of public and semi-public facilities (e.g. community centers, libraries, restaurants, non-essential stores) is fine. Tying the provision of otherwise unrelated benefits to being vaccinated is on the other side of the line.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4154 on: October 19, 2020, 05:14:04 PM »
I'm looking forward to a Covid vaccine, but I want to be sure it has been properly tested before I get it.  I expect lots of people will think the same thing, so early use will most likely be in people who are at greatest risk.  I can keep self-isolating until I am ready to be confident in it.  Canada seems to be being a bit less eager to push for an early vaccine and a bit more willing to let the trials proceed at an acceptable pace, so this may not end up being much of an issue.  Time will tell.

BTW, I get my flu vaccine every year (normally easy to get here) and when DD was a child she got all the recommended vaccinations on schedule.  If the Covid vaccine ends up being a repeat vaccine, then we will just need to get it on a more regular basis.  Flu vaccine is only good for a year (because of fluctuations in which strains are common in any year) , tetanus should be redone every ten years, it isn't like all vaccines are for life.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4155 on: October 19, 2020, 07:03:13 PM »
For Covid-19 R is estimated around 3, which means 1 - 1/3 = 66.7% of the population needs immunity one way or the other.

Unfortunately the math is a bit lot more fuzzy than that and not quite so simple.


« Last Edit: October 19, 2020, 07:04:48 PM by HBFIRE »

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4156 on: October 20, 2020, 12:09:50 AM »

Unfortunately the math is a bit lot more fuzzy than that and not quite so simple.

Yes, I know. The point is still that it's not necessary that everyone takes a shot, nor to force it upon everyone. And as mentioned in the article it depends on a lot of factors, how efficient the vaccine is being one of the key ones.

The idea that "everyone must be vaccinated" is more relevant for measels where you need a much higher proportion of the population due to the very high infection rate.

I also have a hunch that a large part of the population views a vaccine as a binary thing - as in something offering 100% protection which generally is not the case.
« Last Edit: October 20, 2020, 02:24:08 AM by habanero »

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4157 on: October 20, 2020, 04:45:48 AM »
I don't see why a vaccine shouldn't be mandatory (Subject to medical issues, both general to the larger population and confined to any given individual).

If available next year, a vaccine for covid will have been approved faster and with fewer safety checks than a normal vaccine.  So when you say you support a mandatory vaccine subject to medical issues . . . what exactly do you mean?  The medical issues will be unknown when it's available.

if people don't want to get the vaccination they shouldn't be thrown in jail, but I would advocate stopping payment of any and all medical/welfare/social security benefits till they do - again, subject to medical exemptions.

Maybe it's bad "optics" but it's time we stopped giving any thought to the views of the anti-vaxxer crowd. See how tough they are when they can no longer suck from the state's teat.

Is this going to include the people who suck the most from the state's teat - those who pay reduced taxes on investment income?

if it's not safe then it's not safe and no one needs to take it. If whoever approves vaccines isn't happy to approve it like they would approve any other vaccine then don't put it out and keep it experimental or optional or whatever. I leave that to the professionals to decide.

And haha at the investment income jibe.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4158 on: October 20, 2020, 07:23:47 AM »
I don't see why a vaccine shouldn't be mandatory (Subject to medical issues, both general to the larger population and confined to any given individual).

If available next year, a vaccine for covid will have been approved faster and with fewer safety checks than a normal vaccine.  So when you say you support a mandatory vaccine subject to medical issues . . . what exactly do you mean?  The medical issues will be unknown when it's available.

if people don't want to get the vaccination they shouldn't be thrown in jail, but I would advocate stopping payment of any and all medical/welfare/social security benefits till they do - again, subject to medical exemptions.

Maybe it's bad "optics" but it's time we stopped giving any thought to the views of the anti-vaxxer crowd. See how tough they are when they can no longer suck from the state's teat.

Is this going to include the people who suck the most from the state's teat - those who pay reduced taxes on investment income?

if it's not safe then it's not safe and no one needs to take it. If whoever approves vaccines isn't happy to approve it like they would approve any other vaccine then don't put it out and keep it experimental or optional or whatever. I leave that to the professionals to decide.

Although researchers will have done everything that they can to ensure safety, we won't really know if it's safe.  It's not possible to ensure that in such a short period of time.  It will almost certainly be approved for use regardless, as the risk from impacts of the virus (including economic risks) will be viewed as higher.



And haha at the investment income jibe.

This was not a jibe.

I pay significantly less of my share of taxes on my investment earnings.  This makes me a taker from society, and certainly someone who sucks deeply at the state's teat.  If your concern is people taking advantage of the state, I suck more via my investments than your typical poor person does via welfare.  It makes no sense to be upset only at the poor.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4159 on: October 20, 2020, 08:00:57 AM »
"I pay significantly less of my share of taxes on my investment earnings."

Perhaps if your only income is investment earnings and the tax you pay on it is outweighed by welfare handouts then you are indeed a taker from society. But if your net tax position (taxes paid less welfare payments/benefits in kind received) is positive then you are not.

If I have $50k in wage earnings and I'm meant to be paying (for the sake of example) $20k in tax on it, and instead I have $50k in investment earnings and I pay only $10k in tax on it, it's correct to say I've saved $10k in tax. It's not correct to say I've taken $10k from the government. More like the government has taken $10k less from me. It's quite different from someone with $0 in earnings who is paid a $10k handout by the government.

former player

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4160 on: October 20, 2020, 09:26:55 AM »
"I pay significantly less of my share of taxes on my investment earnings."

Perhaps if your only income is investment earnings and the tax you pay on it is outweighed by welfare handouts then you are indeed a taker from society. But if your net tax position (taxes paid less welfare payments/benefits in kind received) is positive then you are not.

If I have $50k in wage earnings and I'm meant to be paying (for the sake of example) $20k in tax on it, and instead I have $50k in investment earnings and I pay only $10k in tax on it, it's correct to say I've saved $10k in tax. It's not correct to say I've taken $10k from the government. More like the government has taken $10k less from me. It's quite different from someone with $0 in earnings who is paid a $10k handout by the government.
According to Wikipedia the cost per person of government services is almost identical in the USA and Australia, at $20,670 and $20,674 respectively.  If you are paying less than this in annual taxes you are indeed sucking at the government teat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_budget_per_capita

DadJokes

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4161 on: October 20, 2020, 11:07:29 AM »
"I pay significantly less of my share of taxes on my investment earnings."

Perhaps if your only income is investment earnings and the tax you pay on it is outweighed by welfare handouts then you are indeed a taker from society. But if your net tax position (taxes paid less welfare payments/benefits in kind received) is positive then you are not.

If I have $50k in wage earnings and I'm meant to be paying (for the sake of example) $20k in tax on it, and instead I have $50k in investment earnings and I pay only $10k in tax on it, it's correct to say I've saved $10k in tax. It's not correct to say I've taken $10k from the government. More like the government has taken $10k less from me. It's quite different from someone with $0 in earnings who is paid a $10k handout by the government.
According to Wikipedia the cost per person of government services is almost identical in the USA and Australia, at $20,670 and $20,674 respectively.  If you are paying less than this in annual taxes you are indeed sucking at the government teat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_budget_per_capita

Well, that would include pretty much everyone. A household with two working spouses, which apparently costs the government $41,348, has to have an AGI of $254,440 before they pay that much in taxes (which includes federal income, SS & Medicare taxes). That doesn't pass the eyeball test, so I'm a little skeptical of the per capita budget.

However, I think it's fair to say that some people use more in government benefits than others (people over 62, for example).

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4162 on: October 20, 2020, 05:01:09 PM »
"I pay significantly less of my share of taxes on my investment earnings."

Perhaps if your only income is investment earnings and the tax you pay on it is outweighed by welfare handouts then you are indeed a taker from society. But if your net tax position (taxes paid less welfare payments/benefits in kind received) is positive then you are not.

If I have $50k in wage earnings and I'm meant to be paying (for the sake of example) $20k in tax on it, and instead I have $50k in investment earnings and I pay only $10k in tax on it, it's correct to say I've saved $10k in tax. It's not correct to say I've taken $10k from the government. More like the government has taken $10k less from me. It's quite different from someone with $0 in earnings who is paid a $10k handout by the government.
According to Wikipedia the cost per person of government services is almost identical in the USA and Australia, at $20,670 and $20,674 respectively.  If you are paying less than this in annual taxes you are indeed sucking at the government teat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_budget_per_capita

Well, that would include pretty much everyone. A household with two working spouses, which apparently costs the government $41,348, has to have an AGI of $254,440 before they pay that much in taxes (which includes federal income, SS & Medicare taxes). That doesn't pass the eyeball test, so I'm a little skeptical of the per capita budget.

However, I think it's fair to say that some people use more in government benefits than others (people over 62, for example).

I find it hard to believe that GuitarStv is a net taker from society.   As long as you're not cheating on your taxes, you're paying what society has asked you to pay.

Also, in Ontario, we can complete line 46500 on our tax return in the event that we feel we aren't paying enough taxes.    The money we voluntarily pay on this line is earmarked to pay down the provincial debt.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4163 on: October 20, 2020, 05:12:37 PM »
"I pay significantly less of my share of taxes on my investment earnings."

Perhaps if your only income is investment earnings and the tax you pay on it is outweighed by welfare handouts then you are indeed a taker from society. But if your net tax position (taxes paid less welfare payments/benefits in kind received) is positive then you are not.

If I have $50k in wage earnings and I'm meant to be paying (for the sake of example) $20k in tax on it, and instead I have $50k in investment earnings and I pay only $10k in tax on it, it's correct to say I've saved $10k in tax. It's not correct to say I've taken $10k from the government. More like the government has taken $10k less from me. It's quite different from someone with $0 in earnings who is paid a $10k handout by the government.
According to Wikipedia the cost per person of government services is almost identical in the USA and Australia, at $20,670 and $20,674 respectively.  If you are paying less than this in annual taxes you are indeed sucking at the government teat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_budget_per_capita

Well, that would include pretty much everyone. A household with two working spouses, which apparently costs the government $41,348, has to have an AGI of $254,440 before they pay that much in taxes (which includes federal income, SS & Medicare taxes). That doesn't pass the eyeball test, so I'm a little skeptical of the per capita budget.

However, I think it's fair to say that some people use more in government benefits than others (people over 62, for example).

I find it hard to believe that GuitarStv is a net taker from society.   As long as you're not cheating on your taxes, you're paying what society has asked you to pay.

Also, in Ontario, we can complete line 46500 on our tax return in the event that we feel we aren't paying enough taxes.    The money we voluntarily pay on this line is earmarked to pay down the provincial debt.

I would be interested to see stats on the usage of that box.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4164 on: October 20, 2020, 05:20:01 PM »
"I pay significantly less of my share of taxes on my investment earnings."

Perhaps if your only income is investment earnings and the tax you pay on it is outweighed by welfare handouts then you are indeed a taker from society. But if your net tax position (taxes paid less welfare payments/benefits in kind received) is positive then you are not.

If I have $50k in wage earnings and I'm meant to be paying (for the sake of example) $20k in tax on it, and instead I have $50k in investment earnings and I pay only $10k in tax on it, it's correct to say I've saved $10k in tax. It's not correct to say I've taken $10k from the government. More like the government has taken $10k less from me. It's quite different from someone with $0 in earnings who is paid a $10k handout by the government.
According to Wikipedia the cost per person of government services is almost identical in the USA and Australia, at $20,670 and $20,674 respectively.  If you are paying less than this in annual taxes you are indeed sucking at the government teat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_budget_per_capita

Well, that would include pretty much everyone. A household with two working spouses, which apparently costs the government $41,348, has to have an AGI of $254,440 before they pay that much in taxes (which includes federal income, SS & Medicare taxes). That doesn't pass the eyeball test, so I'm a little skeptical of the per capita budget.

However, I think it's fair to say that some people use more in government benefits than others (people over 62, for example).

I find it hard to believe that GuitarStv is a net taker from society.   As long as you're not cheating on your taxes, you're paying what society has asked you to pay.

Also, in Ontario, we can complete line 46500 on our tax return in the event that we feel we aren't paying enough taxes.    The money we voluntarily pay on this line is earmarked to pay down the provincial debt.

I would be interested to see stats on the usage of that box.

I would too.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4165 on: October 21, 2020, 08:05:50 AM »
"I pay significantly less of my share of taxes on my investment earnings."

Perhaps if your only income is investment earnings and the tax you pay on it is outweighed by welfare handouts then you are indeed a taker from society. But if your net tax position (taxes paid less welfare payments/benefits in kind received) is positive then you are not.

If I have $50k in wage earnings and I'm meant to be paying (for the sake of example) $20k in tax on it, and instead I have $50k in investment earnings and I pay only $10k in tax on it, it's correct to say I've saved $10k in tax. It's not correct to say I've taken $10k from the government. More like the government has taken $10k less from me. It's quite different from someone with $0 in earnings who is paid a $10k handout by the government.
According to Wikipedia the cost per person of government services is almost identical in the USA and Australia, at $20,670 and $20,674 respectively.  If you are paying less than this in annual taxes you are indeed sucking at the government teat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_budget_per_capita

Something about this seems off.  How can it be that high?  I've never paid anywhere even remotely close to that in taxes, nor have most people.  You'd have to be in the top 1% of income earners with a family of 3 to balance out and pay your fair share of taxes.  Obviously most families are not in the top 1%, and I can't see the top 1% paying enough to make up the slack of the other 99% under paying. 

tralfamadorian

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4166 on: October 21, 2020, 08:33:34 AM »
...
According to Wikipedia the cost per person of government services is almost identical in the USA and Australia, at $20,670 and $20,674 respectively.  If you are paying less than this in annual taxes you are indeed sucking at the government teat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_budget_per_capita

Something about this seems off.  How can it be that high?  I've never paid anywhere even remotely close to that in taxes, nor have most people.  You'd have to be in the top 1% of income earners with a family of 3 to balance out and pay your fair share of taxes.  Obviously most families are not in the top 1%, and I can't see the top 1% paying enough to make up the slack of the other 99% under paying.

I would surmise that income that the government derives from each resident includes federal and state income tax, sales tax, real estate taxes of primary residences, residential rental real estate and commercial/industrial property (you purchase from a business that hereby is able to pay their own taxes), employer side taxes and some others that are not coming to mind at the moment. So, personal yearly taxes due on April 15 > $20k does not automatically make you an under-contributor.

Sanitary Engineer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4167 on: October 21, 2020, 08:40:58 AM »
Wikipedia's link is a pretty unsophisticated Total Budget / population.  This doesn't take into consideration number of people filing individual taxes or other sources of revenue, which gets complicated quickly. 

I would love to see a better breakdown of where US revenue is coming from specifically from individual income taxes.  One thing I found was that the top 1% provides a greater share of revenue than the bottom 90% (and how embarrassing it is that 90% of income earners are "the bottom"), so The vast majority of us are not paying our "fair share" if you want to calculate fair share as equal proportion, which I sure don't since I don't get an equal share of the benefit of all that money.

One thing that is blindingly obvious from a very superficial dive into the CBO, is that the current deficit is not sustainable and we need to raise taxes on everyone.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4168 on: October 21, 2020, 08:50:19 AM »
...
According to Wikipedia the cost per person of government services is almost identical in the USA and Australia, at $20,670 and $20,674 respectively.  If you are paying less than this in annual taxes you are indeed sucking at the government teat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_budget_per_capita

Something about this seems off.  How can it be that high?  I've never paid anywhere even remotely close to that in taxes, nor have most people.  You'd have to be in the top 1% of income earners with a family of 3 to balance out and pay your fair share of taxes.  Obviously most families are not in the top 1%, and I can't see the top 1% paying enough to make up the slack of the other 99% under paying.

I would surmise that income that the government derives from each resident includes federal and state income tax, sales tax, real estate taxes of primary residences, residential rental real estate and commercial/industrial property (you purchase from a business that hereby is able to pay their own taxes), employer side taxes and some others that are not coming to mind at the moment. So, personal yearly taxes due on April 15 > $20k does not automatically make you an under-contributor.

Yeah but a family of 3 would have a tax burden $62k but the median household income is only $60k in the usa (all 2017 numbers).  Still does not seem to add up to being possible to me.   

bacchi

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4169 on: October 21, 2020, 09:17:33 AM »
Wikipedia's link is a pretty unsophisticated Total Budget / population.  This doesn't take into consideration number of people filing individual taxes or other sources of revenue, which gets complicated quickly. 

Is it unsophisticated?

It's pretty easy to get state revenues and, since most states pass through municipal sales tax, that's easily found as well. In fact, I found a handy table listing all revenue by source for my state, including utility taxes, alcoholic taxes, hotel taxes, and "other" taxes, among many others.

We have to remember that (some) corporations pay a lot in taxes. Exxon paid $8.6B in income taxes per year from 2008-2017. Apple paid over $10B in 2017. That quickly adds up (their business property taxes would be included in the state breakdown).


Eta: The $20k/person isn't helpful, though, since we all get a "credit" for Exxon's and Apple's payments. And maybe that's what you mean. We can't simply compare what an individual pays vs what the average benefit is because it ignores the billions and billions that are paid on our behalf, so to speak.
« Last Edit: October 21, 2020, 09:20:02 AM by bacchi »

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4170 on: October 21, 2020, 09:30:26 AM »
"I pay significantly less of my share of taxes on my investment earnings."

Perhaps if your only income is investment earnings and the tax you pay on it is outweighed by welfare handouts then you are indeed a taker from society. But if your net tax position (taxes paid less welfare payments/benefits in kind received) is positive then you are not.

If I have $50k in wage earnings and I'm meant to be paying (for the sake of example) $20k in tax on it, and instead I have $50k in investment earnings and I pay only $10k in tax on it, it's correct to say I've saved $10k in tax. It's not correct to say I've taken $10k from the government. More like the government has taken $10k less from me. It's quite different from someone with $0 in earnings who is paid a $10k handout by the government.
According to Wikipedia the cost per person of government services is almost identical in the USA and Australia, at $20,670 and $20,674 respectively.  If you are paying less than this in annual taxes you are indeed sucking at the government teat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_budget_per_capita

Something about this seems off.  How can it be that high?  I've never paid anywhere even remotely close to that in taxes, nor have most people.  You'd have to be in the top 1% of income earners with a family of 3 to balance out and pay your fair share of taxes.  Obviously most families are not in the top 1%, and I can't see the top 1% paying enough to make up the slack of the other 99% under paying.

Looking at my w2 from last year I paid the federal government ~20k

My wife paid right at ~25k

Received a 5k refund so about 40k total

This was with us maxing out 401ks, HSA and every other tax advantaged item we could.

So we paid about 18% in federal taxes, add to that what our employers pay and all of the additional fees / taxes we pay and it adds up to a substantial amount.

We are no where near the 1% mark for earnings, according to most articles I have seen we are in the top 10% or so and I do everything I can to shield our income from taxes so not sure your statement about having to be in the top 1% is true.


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NotJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4171 on: October 21, 2020, 09:51:37 AM »
According to Wikipedia the cost per person of government services is almost identical in the USA and Australia, at $20,670 and $20,674 respectively.  If you are paying less than this in annual taxes you are indeed sucking at the government teat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_budget_per_capita

Something about this seems off.  How can it be that high?  I've never paid anywhere even remotely close to that in taxes, nor have most people.  You'd have to be in the top 1% of income earners with a family of 3 to balance out and pay your fair share of taxes.  Obviously most families are not in the top 1%, and I can't see the top 1% paying enough to make up the slack of the other 99% under paying.

Looking at my w2 from last year I paid the federal government ~20k

My wife paid right at ~25k

Received a 5k refund so about 40k total

This was with us maxing out 401ks, HSA and every other tax advantaged item we could.

So we paid about 18% in federal taxes, add to that what our employers pay and all of the additional fees / taxes we pay and it adds up to a substantial amount.

We are no where near the 1% mark for earnings, according to most articles I have seen we are in the top 10% or so and I do everything I can to shield our income from taxes so not sure your statement about having to be in the top 1% is true.


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Same.  I paid an average of $25k in federal income tax + FICA for the last many years while maxing out 401k (that's about the only tax advantage I had available).  According to the numbers I've seen, I don't break the top 10% for income.

To even things out, I'm going to be an underpayer for a while...

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4172 on: October 21, 2020, 10:10:19 AM »
"I pay significantly less of my share of taxes on my investment earnings."

Perhaps if your only income is investment earnings and the tax you pay on it is outweighed by welfare handouts then you are indeed a taker from society. But if your net tax position (taxes paid less welfare payments/benefits in kind received) is positive then you are not.

If I have $50k in wage earnings and I'm meant to be paying (for the sake of example) $20k in tax on it, and instead I have $50k in investment earnings and I pay only $10k in tax on it, it's correct to say I've saved $10k in tax. It's not correct to say I've taken $10k from the government. More like the government has taken $10k less from me. It's quite different from someone with $0 in earnings who is paid a $10k handout by the government.
According to Wikipedia the cost per person of government services is almost identical in the USA and Australia, at $20,670 and $20,674 respectively.  If you are paying less than this in annual taxes you are indeed sucking at the government teat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_budget_per_capita

Something about this seems off.  How can it be that high?  I've never paid anywhere even remotely close to that in taxes, nor have most people.  You'd have to be in the top 1% of income earners with a family of 3 to balance out and pay your fair share of taxes.  Obviously most families are not in the top 1%, and I can't see the top 1% paying enough to make up the slack of the other 99% under paying.

Looking at my w2 from last year I paid the federal government ~20k

My wife paid right at ~25k

Received a 5k refund so about 40k total

This was with us maxing out 401ks, HSA and every other tax advantaged item we could.

So we paid about 18% in federal taxes, add to that what our employers pay and all of the additional fees / taxes we pay and it adds up to a substantial amount.

We are no where near the 1% mark for earnings, according to most articles I have seen we are in the top 10% or so and I do everything I can to shield our income from taxes so not sure your statement about having to be in the top 1% is true.


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Ok so 401k + 401k + family HSA + MFJ deduction = $69,400 in income before you start being taxed.  On taxable income you then paid $970 in the 10% bracket, $8,310 in the 12% bracket, $19,679 in the 22% bracket, and $11,041 in the 24% bracket for a grand total of $40k in taxes on $214.4k of taxable income.  Plus the $69,400 that wasn't taxable means you earned $283.8k.  This places you in the top 3-4% of household income in 2019.  So "top 1%" might be a slight exaggeration.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4173 on: October 21, 2020, 10:15:41 AM »
I've paid about $6k in federal taxes from 2014-2019.  I've earned about $500k in those 6 years. 

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4174 on: October 21, 2020, 10:28:22 AM »
"I pay significantly less of my share of taxes on my investment earnings."

Perhaps if your only income is investment earnings and the tax you pay on it is outweighed by welfare handouts then you are indeed a taker from society. But if your net tax position (taxes paid less welfare payments/benefits in kind received) is positive then you are not.

If I have $50k in wage earnings and I'm meant to be paying (for the sake of example) $20k in tax on it, and instead I have $50k in investment earnings and I pay only $10k in tax on it, it's correct to say I've saved $10k in tax. It's not correct to say I've taken $10k from the government. More like the government has taken $10k less from me. It's quite different from someone with $0 in earnings who is paid a $10k handout by the government.
According to Wikipedia the cost per person of government services is almost identical in the USA and Australia, at $20,670 and $20,674 respectively.  If you are paying less than this in annual taxes you are indeed sucking at the government teat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_budget_per_capita

Something about this seems off.  How can it be that high?  I've never paid anywhere even remotely close to that in taxes, nor have most people.  You'd have to be in the top 1% of income earners with a family of 3 to balance out and pay your fair share of taxes.  Obviously most families are not in the top 1%, and I can't see the top 1% paying enough to make up the slack of the other 99% under paying.

Looking at my w2 from last year I paid the federal government ~20k

My wife paid right at ~25k

Received a 5k refund so about 40k total

This was with us maxing out 401ks, HSA and every other tax advantaged item we could.

So we paid about 18% in federal taxes, add to that what our employers pay and all of the additional fees / taxes we pay and it adds up to a substantial amount.

We are no where near the 1% mark for earnings, according to most articles I have seen we are in the top 10% or so and I do everything I can to shield our income from taxes so not sure your statement about having to be in the top 1% is true.


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Ok so 401k + 401k + family HSA + MFJ deduction = $69,400 in income before you start being taxed.  On taxable income you then paid $970 in the 10% bracket, $8,310 in the 12% bracket, $19,679 in the 22% bracket, and $11,041 in the 24% bracket for a grand total of $40k in taxes on $214.4k of taxable income.  Plus the $69,400 that wasn't taxable means you earned $283.8k.  This places you in the top 3-4% of household income in 2019.  So "top 1%" might be a slight exaggeration.
I wish we made that much you are off by tens of thousands of dollars :)

Even at the number you gave we would not be 1%. Add the taxes we paid plus everything else and employer payments into the tax system and I do not think that number mentioned up thread about tax burden per person is that unbelievable.

Remove all of the tax advantage stuff we do and that makes people with even lower income than us creep up into paying that amount of tax pretty easily. And I can say without a doubt very few people max out pretax buckets or even think about it.


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frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4175 on: October 21, 2020, 10:33:38 AM »
I wish we made that much you are off by tens of thousands of dollars :)

Even at the number you gave we would not be 1%. Add the taxes we paid plus everything else and employer payments into the tax system and I do not think that number mentioned up thread about tax burden per person is that unbelievable.

Remove all of the tax advantage stuff we do and that makes people with even lower income than us creep up into paying that amount of tax pretty easily. And I can say without a doubt very few people max out pretax buckets or even think about it.

Where is the error?  How did you pay $40k in federal income taxes, and max 2 IRAs and an HSA and not have that income?

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4176 on: October 21, 2020, 10:38:47 AM »
I wish we made that much you are off by tens of thousands of dollars :)

Even at the number you gave we would not be 1%. Add the taxes we paid plus everything else and employer payments into the tax system and I do not think that number mentioned up thread about tax burden per person is that unbelievable.

Remove all of the tax advantage stuff we do and that makes people with even lower income than us creep up into paying that amount of tax pretty easily. And I can say without a doubt very few people max out pretax buckets or even think about it.

Where is the error?  How did you pay $40k in federal income taxes, and max 2 IRAs and an HSA and not have that income?
Not sure, took the information directly from my W2 and knew I was close on my wife’s.

I did round up from 19,580 to call it 20k to make it easy.

We get no advantage from the Roth due to income limits and HSA is just for me so $3050


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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4177 on: October 21, 2020, 10:40:46 AM »
I wish we made that much you are off by tens of thousands of dollars :)

Even at the number you gave we would not be 1%. Add the taxes we paid plus everything else and employer payments into the tax system and I do not think that number mentioned up thread about tax burden per person is that unbelievable.

Remove all of the tax advantage stuff we do and that makes people with even lower income than us creep up into paying that amount of tax pretty easily. And I can say without a doubt very few people max out pretax buckets or even think about it.

Where is the error?  How did you pay $40k in federal income taxes, and max 2 IRAs and an HSA and not have that income?
Not sure, took the information directly from my W2 and knew I was close on my wife’s.

I did round up from 19,580 to call it 20k to make it easy.

We get no advantage from the Roth due to income limits and HSA is just for me so $3050


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The $20k number excludes FICA.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4178 on: October 21, 2020, 10:43:03 AM »
I've paid about $6k in federal taxes from 2014-2019.  I've earned about $500k in those 6 years.

This doesn't include FICA?

The $20k number excludes FICA.

But why?  Aren't SS and Medicare expenditures included in the budget?
« Last Edit: October 21, 2020, 10:46:13 AM by NotJen »

the_fixer

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How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4179 on: October 21, 2020, 10:51:08 AM »
I went by this so my number was all three combined.


“A household with two working spouses, which apparently costs the government $41,348, has to have an AGI of $254,440 before they pay that much in taxes (which includes federal income, SS & Medicare taxes”


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frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4180 on: October 21, 2020, 10:55:39 AM »
I've paid about $6k in federal taxes from 2014-2019.  I've earned about $500k in those 6 years.

This doesn't include FICA?


Correct.  My FICA was whatever the FICA tax rate is on my ~$500k, so about ~$38,250 in FICA over the last 6 years.  Plus my employer matched that.  Still doesn't seem to compare against the ~$300k* allotted to me and my family members from 2014-2019.   

*Using $20k/yr/person for me (6), my wife (6), and my son (3) from 2014-2019

bacchi

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4181 on: October 21, 2020, 10:56:31 AM »
The $20k number excludes FICA.

But why?  Aren't SS and Medicare expenditures included in the budget?

Shrug. That's how the CIA World Factbook calculates it.

Quote from: ciaworldfactbook
note: revenues exclude social contributions of approximately $1.0 trillion; expenditures exclude social benefits of approximately $2.3 trillion

SS revenues are projected to be $1.011T in FY2021 but the numbers are from 2017 so it's possible it also includes medicare. It's vague.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4182 on: October 21, 2020, 11:09:25 AM »
I went by this so my number was all three combined.


“A household with two working spouses, which apparently costs the government $41,348, has to have an AGI of $254,440 before they pay that much in taxes (which includes federal income, SS & Medicare taxes”


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I was counting 401k and HSA in the total income.  I was counting the total amount you'd earn in a year, and only considering the tax advantage accounts and deductions to calculate the actual taxable income in order to calculate the actual tax paid.

Correct me if I'm wrong but you could earn $300k, and contribute $19k (x2) to 401ks and $7k to HSA giving you AGI of $255k.   In that situation I would consider you as having $300k in income, and claiming that you only earned $255k because that's your AGI is disingenuous.  Most sites listing the percentiles of income are vague about the details and I don't know precisely what they mean when they talk about income, but I am assuming total actual income before any adjustments are made.  Having your exact household clone earn the same amount of money, but not take advantage of any tax advantaged accounts or tax credits, I would still think you should both show up at exactly the same spot in terms of household earnings percentiles, even though one of you will have a substantially reduced tax burden and AGI.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4183 on: October 21, 2020, 11:32:11 AM »
I went by this so my number was all three combined.


“A household with two working spouses, which apparently costs the government $41,348, has to have an AGI of $254,440 before they pay that much in taxes (which includes federal income, SS & Medicare taxes”


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I was counting 401k and HSA in the total income.  I was counting the total amount you'd earn in a year, and only considering the tax advantage accounts and deductions to calculate the actual taxable income in order to calculate the actual tax paid.

Correct me if I'm wrong but you could earn $300k, and contribute $19k (x2) to 401ks and $7k to HSA giving you AGI of $255k.   In that situation I would consider you as having $300k in income, and claiming that you only earned $255k because that's your AGI is disingenuous.  Most sites listing the percentiles of income are vague about the details and I don't know precisely what they mean when they talk about income, but I am assuming total actual income before any adjustments are made.  Having your exact household clone earn the same amount of money, but not take advantage of any tax advantaged accounts or tax credits, I would still think you should both show up at exactly the same spot in terms of household earnings percentiles, even though one of you will have a substantially reduced tax burden and AGI.

It looks like my math was a bit wrong there. I probably formatted my tax bracket table wrong (that'll teach me to re-do work instead of using something that I know works).

To get $41k in combined taxes (income and employee half of FICA), you'd need an AGI of $187k for a MFJ couple with no kids. That's AGI, so after 401k contributions and whatnot. The numbers aren't 100% accurate, but they're a good ballpark.

It's not 1%, but it's still substantially more than the median, or even average, household income.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4184 on: October 21, 2020, 12:01:29 PM »
I went by this so my number was all three combined.


“A household with two working spouses, which apparently costs the government $41,348, has to have an AGI of $254,440 before they pay that much in taxes (which includes federal income, SS & Medicare taxes”


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I was counting 401k and HSA in the total income.  I was counting the total amount you'd earn in a year, and only considering the tax advantage accounts and deductions to calculate the actual taxable income in order to calculate the actual tax paid.

Correct me if I'm wrong but you could earn $300k, and contribute $19k (x2) to 401ks and $7k to HSA giving you AGI of $255k.   In that situation I would consider you as having $300k in income, and claiming that you only earned $255k because that's your AGI is disingenuous.  Most sites listing the percentiles of income are vague about the details and I don't know precisely what they mean when they talk about income, but I am assuming total actual income before any adjustments are made.  Having your exact household clone earn the same amount of money, but not take advantage of any tax advantaged accounts or tax credits, I would still think you should both show up at exactly the same spot in terms of household earnings percentiles, even though one of you will have a substantially reduced tax burden and AGI.

It looks like my math was a bit wrong there. I probably formatted my tax bracket table wrong (that'll teach me to re-do work instead of using something that I know works).

To get $41k in combined taxes (income and employee half of FICA), you'd need an AGI of $187k for a MFJ couple with no kids. That's AGI, so after 401k contributions and whatnot. The numbers aren't 100% accurate, but they're a good ballpark.

It's not 1%, but it's still substantially more than the median, or even average, household income.

I agree with those numbers.  That income puts you in the top 5%.  I don't necessarily agree to use AGI and not actual income.  What's the "income" difference between two households that earn the exact same, and one contributes to a 401k and HSA?  For calculating taxes they both have different AGI, but as far as trying to compare apples to apples to see where you fall on the spectrum of income it seems you'd count them the same.   Adjusting for that would put you in the top 3% for household income. 

This also doesn't include kids, who don't pay anything into the system. 

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4185 on: October 21, 2020, 03:18:52 PM »
"I pay significantly less of my share of taxes on my investment earnings."

Perhaps if your only income is investment earnings and the tax you pay on it is outweighed by welfare handouts then you are indeed a taker from society. But if your net tax position (taxes paid less welfare payments/benefits in kind received) is positive then you are not.

If I have $50k in wage earnings and I'm meant to be paying (for the sake of example) $20k in tax on it, and instead I have $50k in investment earnings and I pay only $10k in tax on it, it's correct to say I've saved $10k in tax. It's not correct to say I've taken $10k from the government. More like the government has taken $10k less from me. It's quite different from someone with $0 in earnings who is paid a $10k handout by the government.
According to Wikipedia the cost per person of government services is almost identical in the USA and Australia, at $20,670 and $20,674 respectively.  If you are paying less than this in annual taxes you are indeed sucking at the government teat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_budget_per_capita

Well, that would include pretty much everyone. A household with two working spouses, which apparently costs the government $41,348, has to have an AGI of $254,440 before they pay that much in taxes (which includes federal income, SS & Medicare taxes). That doesn't pass the eyeball test, so I'm a little skeptical of the per capita budget.

However, I think it's fair to say that some people use more in government benefits than others (people over 62, for example).

I find it hard to believe that GuitarStv is a net taker from society.   As long as you're not cheating on your taxes, you're paying what society has asked you to pay.

Also, in Ontario, we can complete line 46500 on our tax return in the event that we feel we aren't paying enough taxes.    The money we voluntarily pay on this line is earmarked to pay down the provincial debt.

I would be interested to see stats on the usage of that box.

I would too.

I've only found snippets.   From the Ottawa Sun:

Quote
The records show 2003-04 was the most contributed-to year for people willing to give up their refunds, with 2,639 contributions totalling $159,794. The year before, 2,617 contributions reached $254,419.

ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4186 on: October 21, 2020, 03:46:36 PM »
Looking at my w2 from last year I paid the federal government ~20k

My wife paid right at ~25k

Received a 5k refund so about 40k total

This was with us maxing out 401ks, HSA and every other tax advantaged item we could.

So we paid about 18% in federal taxes, add to that what our employers pay and all of the additional fees / taxes we pay and it adds up to a substantial amount.

We are no where near the 1% mark for earnings, according to most articles I have seen we are in the top 10% or so and I do everything I can to shield our income from taxes so not sure your statement about having to be in the top 1% is true.


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My income is not as high as yours, but taxes are continually my second highest expense (behind housing) and it may eventually overtake housing.

Part of the reason that I have shifted to CoastFIRE is that I absolutely refuse to give government substantial income tax for any more years than are necessary. Once I can coast I fully intend on paying a comically small amount in taxes; and instead use discretionary income to donate to charity in my local community.

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4187 on: October 21, 2020, 08:24:30 PM »
6 months. That’s how long we could wait.

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4188 on: October 22, 2020, 06:42:21 AM »
6 months. That’s how long we could wait.

Meaning what the Gen Pop is pretty much "over it" ?

Sure seems that way.

Random anecdote I noticed last week the state highway changed all thier big flashing road signs from the "wear a mask, maintain 6 feet, etc" back to the generic "watch your speed; dont drink and drive, etc"

We are still virtual schooling which isnt great and is a huge disruption with my wife being a teacher and having a 3rd and 5th grader.

But outside of that they are playing youth sports outdoors with masks; seeing some friends/family on weekends; stuff like that. Defintley more lenient then we were March-May.

Curious whether folks (myself included) will reign it back in with winter temps making it harder to socialize outdoors or if the cats out of the bag and people have had enough curve flattening.

Only time will tell I guess

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4189 on: October 22, 2020, 06:43:20 AM »
6 months. That’s how long we could wait.

Also Abe thanks for moving the convo from taxes back to curve flattening :)

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4190 on: October 22, 2020, 07:24:51 AM »
6 months. That’s how long we could wait.

Meaning what the Gen Pop is pretty much "over it" ?

Sure seems that way.

Random anecdote I noticed last week the state highway changed all thier big flashing road signs from the "wear a mask, maintain 6 feet, etc" back to the generic "watch your speed; dont drink and drive, etc"

We are still virtual schooling which isnt great and is a huge disruption with my wife being a teacher and having a 3rd and 5th grader.

But outside of that they are playing youth sports outdoors with masks; seeing some friends/family on weekends; stuff like that. Defintley more lenient then we were March-May.

Curious whether folks (myself included) will reign it back in with winter temps making it harder to socialize outdoors or if the cats out of the bag and people have had enough curve flattening.

Only time will tell I guess

We are reigning it back it in.  Everyone got fed up with the pandemic months ago, and just started going about their business.  I mean the doofuses never observed the lock down in any form, but more and more started ignoring it, and eventually even reasonable people gave up and said "what's the point?" after 4 months of not visiting family.  Including my wife and every other family member.  Sure we weren't attending concerts or sporting events, but they thought nothing of getting 15 family members together.  Now with the cases rising yet again, and most of the kids in our family being scheduled to resume in person classes about now, they are starting to be more cautious.  My wife has canceled 2 get togethers planned this week, and we've officially tanked any near term family get togethers that were planned including our son's 3rd birthday party.  Sorry little buddy.  I'm betting it's going one of two ways.  Either we don't see another overly huge spike in our region, and everyone relaxes and we start resuming family gatherings in the next 4-6 weeks in times for the holidays, or we do see spikes and/or outbreaks at the schools and we remain isolated and not visiting family.  I hope it's the first, but I know it's most likely the second.  Probably going to be a dark fall/winter season.

Kind of wishing everyone would have taken this seriously back in March/April so we wouldn't have to be making the choice between being able to visit family or risk getting the plague this winter. 

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4191 on: October 22, 2020, 02:20:14 PM »
6 months. That’s how long we could wait.

Meaning what the Gen Pop is pretty much "over it" ?

Sure seems that way.

Random anecdote I noticed last week the state highway changed all thier big flashing road signs from the "wear a mask, maintain 6 feet, etc" back to the generic "watch your speed; dont drink and drive, etc"

We are still virtual schooling which isnt great and is a huge disruption with my wife being a teacher and having a 3rd and 5th grader.

But outside of that they are playing youth sports outdoors with masks; seeing some friends/family on weekends; stuff like that. Defintley more lenient then we were March-May.

Curious whether folks (myself included) will reign it back in with winter temps making it harder to socialize outdoors or if the cats out of the bag and people have had enough curve flattening.

Only time will tell I guess

We are reigning it back it in.  Everyone got fed up with the pandemic months ago, and just started going about their business.  I mean the doofuses never observed the lock down in any form, but more and more started ignoring it, and eventually even reasonable people gave up and said "what's the point?" after 4 months of not visiting family.  Including my wife and every other family member.  Sure we weren't attending concerts or sporting events, but they thought nothing of getting 15 family members together.  Now with the cases rising yet again, and most of the kids in our family being scheduled to resume in person classes about now, they are starting to be more cautious.  My wife has canceled 2 get togethers planned this week, and we've officially tanked any near term family get togethers that were planned including our son's 3rd birthday party.  Sorry little buddy.  I'm betting it's going one of two ways.  Either we don't see another overly huge spike in our region, and everyone relaxes and we start resuming family gatherings in the next 4-6 weeks in times for the holidays, or we do see spikes and/or outbreaks at the schools and we remain isolated and not visiting family.  I hope it's the first, but I know it's most likely the second.  Probably going to be a dark fall/winter season.

Kind of wishing everyone would have taken this seriously back in March/April so we wouldn't have to be making the choice between being able to visit family or risk getting the plague this winter.
I read an interesting thing about stressful situations like this and how 6 months is when it gets really really hard to adjust.  I'm not surprised that people are over it.

The problem isn't necessarily that people didn't take it seriously in March/ April.  Some people actually DID.  But "flattening the curve" has to continue.  I live in California.  We basically shut down.  But then we opened in May and started to peak in May/June.  Then we shut down again.  We've flattened the curve again BUT the college students are starting to spread it. (Our schools are still closed).

Any kind of opening (bars, restaurants, schools) can result in increased cases.  It's not like we were ever going to completely eliminate it.  Unfortunately, things like church services and indoor family parties are what really spread things.  People went from "lock down don't see anyone" to "family parties".  You know, there are a million middle grounds.

It's like the families around here just PUSHING to reopen schools because "the kids are hanging out anyway".  Um, they aren't.  YOURS are, but MINE aren't.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4192 on: October 22, 2020, 02:26:54 PM »
Kind of wishing everyone would have taken this seriously back in March/April so we wouldn't have to be making the choice between being able to visit family or risk getting the plague this winter.

March 13:

Just imagine we had a virus spreading around the globe that reliably killed half a million people every year, despite having a vaccine for it.  We do, it's the seasonal flu.  And even though there is a vaccine, 2/3 of the adults in the USA can't be bothered to even get the vaccine because they deem it not to be a big deal.  Those are the same people freaking out and panicking about the coronavirus.  The flu has been around longer than the stock market, yet the stock market has done just fine historically. 

I predict the coronavirus will ultimately have less of an impact than the seasonal flu, and we bounce back by the summer of 2020.  There may be larger economic factors at play, but I suspect the coronavirus will blow over and not be nearly as big of a deal as it's currently being made out to be.

Hate to dredge something like this up, but I just remember you being beating the "no big deal drum" along with a lot of other members in March

MayDay

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4193 on: October 22, 2020, 02:51:54 PM »
We are coming into winter.....  snowed 6" this week.

We've been really careful this whole time, only seeing 2 family members and 2 neighbor families (outside only).

But as we come in to winter, mental health is already not good, and outdoor socializing is more and more challenging.  We did buy a patio heater.  IDK.  Everything sucks, life is terrible.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4194 on: October 22, 2020, 03:07:39 PM »
Daily average US deaths are unambiguously climbing again, trailing the uptick in cases we saw starting a few weeks ago. It's very plausible that we'll see another 50,000 deaths before the end of the year. We're going to blow past the 100K-250K estimate that US officials put out in March.

CDC excess mortality measures indicate that reported deaths capture only around 66%-85% of the true toll. (this could mean underreported COVID deaths, deaths from decreased healthcare access, or deaths from diseases of misery. We just don't know yet)

It'll be years in the making, but I'll be really interested in seeing the post-mortem on exactly how the United States fucked up this badly. We're going to rocket past our Western European friends in terms of per capita deaths and our median age is much lower.


Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4195 on: October 22, 2020, 03:13:10 PM »
Kind of wishing everyone would have taken this seriously back in March/April so we wouldn't have to be making the choice between being able to visit family or risk getting the plague this winter.

March 13:

Just imagine we had a virus spreading around the globe that reliably killed half a million people every year, despite having a vaccine for it.  We do, it's the seasonal flu.  And even though there is a vaccine, 2/3 of the adults in the USA can't be bothered to even get the vaccine because they deem it not to be a big deal.  Those are the same people freaking out and panicking about the coronavirus.  The flu has been around longer than the stock market, yet the stock market has done just fine historically. 

I predict the coronavirus will ultimately have less of an impact than the seasonal flu, and we bounce back by the summer of 2020.  There may be larger economic factors at play, but I suspect the coronavirus will blow over and not be nearly as big of a deal as it's currently being made out to be.

Hate to dredge something like this up, but I just remember you being beating the "no big deal drum" along with a lot of other members in March

Lots of folks changed their mind of course. I Sure Wish your prediction to bounce back by Summer would of been correct Frugalnacho.

Most people I know did take it pretty seriously from Mid March through late May and that seemed to be the tipping point where people were like ok we need to socialize.

We are coming into winter.....  snowed 6" this week.

We've been really careful this whole time, only seeing 2 family members and 2 neighbor families (outside only).

But as we come in to winter, mental health is already not good, and outdoor socializing is more and more challenging.  We did buy a patio heater.  IDK.  Everything sucks, life is terrible.

For better or worse we decided to be a bit looser and see friends/family a fair bit this Summer in hopes to sort of fill our socialization reserves assuming we'd have to tighten things up again this winter. In hindsight no one got sick so it was fine; but of course we didn't know that at the time and so it was'nt without some thought/risk/questioning.

Problem is now it's been so nice seeing folks again I don't know how successful we'll be at going back....our state is still fairing really well so maybe we won't have too. Just feels like we're back to this wait and see/constant stress vs the Summer where it seemed a bit more relaxed.

The mental health struggles associated witht he lockdown/job loss/etc are real for sure. A friend of mine from High school OD'ed on my 40th B-day after 4+ years sober, not exactly a suicide but he had posted a bunch of stuff on FB saying how hard losing his business was and he couldn't get unemployment or a PPP loan, etc. so sure it had a factor.

I had a physical with my primary care physician around my birthday and she was asking a ton of questions about anxiety. stress, depresion, etc. (none of which I have a history of) and it didn't strike me until later it was probably because of the pandemic; guessing she's seeing a lot of it :(

Even she said she'd be seeing friends, family, rented a beach house with another family, etc. and said you have to have some balance. She said do it outdoors as much as possible, avoid large crowds, wash hands, mask in public, etc. Same as most folks have been saying but nice to hear from her that I didn't seem too crazy to have dinner with a friend or what have you.

Hope it doesn't spike like crazy again this winter but I guess we'll see :/

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4196 on: October 22, 2020, 03:23:28 PM »
Lots of folks changed their mind of course. I Sure Wish your prediction to bounce back by Summer would of been correct Frugalnacho.

+1

I started tracking this in February and back then, I thought we'd be fine. This would be another H1N1 or something. There were high CFRs coming out of China, but I assumed that was just because of limited testing. (That was true of course, but it was still deadlier than I thought it'd be)

Right around the time the NBA shut down I realized this was serious business. I changed my mind.

I also very much which Frugalnacho would have been right.

SunnyDays

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4197 on: October 22, 2020, 04:24:41 PM »
We are coming into winter.....  snowed 6" this week.

We've been really careful this whole time, only seeing 2 family members and 2 neighbor families (outside only).

But as we come in to winter, mental health is already not good, and outdoor socializing is more and more challenging.  We did buy a patio heater.  IDK.  Everything sucks, life is terrible.

No, life is not terrible.  Time to adjust your thinking.  You’re still healthy (I assume), you have a home, family and food on the table and probably a job.  I can think of much harder lives than that.

mm1970

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4198 on: October 22, 2020, 04:52:51 PM »
We are coming into winter.....  snowed 6" this week.

We've been really careful this whole time, only seeing 2 family members and 2 neighbor families (outside only).

But as we come in to winter, mental health is already not good, and outdoor socializing is more and more challenging.  We did buy a patio heater.  IDK.  Everything sucks, life is terrible.
Basically.  We haven't socialized much at all in the last 7 months. 
- an outdoor birthday celebration (with masks) with no more than 4 other people here at a time. (Only 6 total.)
- an outdoor birthday celebration (someone else's) - not enough masks, so we only stayed about 15 minutes and distanced
- a dinner at a friend's house (who is being very careful)
- The occasional chat with a neighbor from 6' away while walking.
- Two walk/ runs with a friend, outdoors while wearing a mask.
- An outdoor memorial service

That's for the entire family, 4 people, 7 months.  It's starting to wear on my teenager, even though he's not particularly social.  Being stuck with us 24/7...

It's hard, there's no doubt about it.

MayDay

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4199 on: October 22, 2020, 05:17:54 PM »
We are coming into winter.....  snowed 6" this week.

We've been really careful this whole time, only seeing 2 family members and 2 neighbor families (outside only).

But as we come in to winter, mental health is already not good, and outdoor socializing is more and more challenging.  We did buy a patio heater.  IDK.  Everything sucks, life is terrible.

No, life is not terrible.  Time to adjust your thinking.  You’re still healthy (I assume), you have a home, family and food on the table and probably a job.  I can think of much harder lives than that.

I hate comments like this. NOT HELPFUL. It's not the suffering olympics. People are allowed to be miserable even if someone has it worse. And it is also a giant middle finger to mental illness.