Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 253687 times)

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2650 on: June 27, 2020, 09:35:08 AM »
D&D group (6 people total) in a rural area with just a couple of old cases of COVID, yet our state says everyone must wear a mask pretty much everywhere.

Would you comply?

I would.

D&D group (6 people total) in a rural area with just a couple of old cases of COVID, yet our state says everyone must wear a mask pretty much everywhere.

Would you comply?

If I was inside a store, absolutely YES even if there is no one inside the store.
If droplets from my mouth or nose happened to fall on a product inside a store and the next person touch that, that person can easily transmit it to the next 10 people. If I keep all my droplets inside my mask, I doing my part.

I wouldn't comply. Risk/benefit analysis would militate against it if there are only a couple of cases in the state.

I mean, I don't get a flu vaccination each winter either. Same sort of situation except I'd say the risk/benefit is probably more slanted towards getting the vaccine given the prevalence of flu.

Would you be willing to share more about your cost/benefit analysis for face coverings?

The monetary cost is minimal. A face covering can be made in a couple of minutes if you have a bandana or old t-shirt. If you prefer a commercial option, Old Navy has cloth masks for $12.50 for a five pack. My preferred masks are $20 for a two pack from Purple, which is considerably more expensive but still not a significant financial burden.

The non-financial costs are more subjective. It takes perhaps ten minutes to either make a face covering (including a generous estimate of time to gather supplies from around the house) or order some. I already have to do laundry so tossing masks in the washer with dirty clothes and hanging them to dry adds maybe a minute to my weekly routine. Mask wearing isn't something I look forward to, but with nice, well-fitting masks, it is a minor annoyance.

The benefits are primarily for others, not the mask wearer. How much do you value helping ensure that your area doesn't develop a surge of new cases if a few people become infected? We're starting to see states reimpose stricter rules as case counts increase, and your odds of getting to keep meeting with friends in public rather than having to switch to Roll20 for weeks or months to come are better if the populace complies with the mask mandate.

I'm not going to wear a face mask inside a bar because it defeats the socialisation purpose of going there. I wouldn't be fussed with wearing a face mask inside a grocery store but I see maybe 10% of the population doing that so it's clearly not just me who doesn't do it and I think beneath a certain critical level of use, face masks do little. I'm also not convinced there is much risk of transmission from incidental contact a la grocery stores or walking past someone on the street. I'm convinced the only way to get it is by close social contact mainly indoors or family-type gatherings.

I think the only real chance i have of getting the disease is through my staying at restaurants and bars (crowded indoor places) and having looked at the state numbers and also noting that they're mostly in specific suburbs (which are definitely not me) I believe the risk is so small as to be negligible.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2651 on: June 27, 2020, 09:38:33 AM »
Bloop bloop, you are in a massively low risk area.  The rest of us in this discussion are in medium to high risk areas.  Please recognize your Australian privilege.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2652 on: June 27, 2020, 09:41:55 AM »
Bloop bloop, you are in a massively low risk area.  The rest of us in this discussion are in medium to high risk areas.  Please recognize your Australian privilege.

THANK YOU. We have several dozen cases now linked to one bar just outside of the state capitol, and just last week we were considered to have COVID-19 under control in our state. UPDATE: Harper's COVID-19 outbreak reaches 76 cases, How coronavirus spread from East Lansing bar to the Grosse Pointes

From the second article:
Quote
The party was held on a Friday night, parents said. The guest who had been to Harper's was symptomatic during the party, got sicker over the weekend and was tested for COVID-19 on Monday, though didn't share the positive results with friends until Tuesday night, parents said.

By then, the virus had spread among college-age kids hanging out for the summer.

"I'm just so frustrated," said one mother, whose 19-year-old daughter has tested positive for COVID-19 after attending a bonfire with friends in Grosse Pointe. "I'm so sad. We stayed home as ordered and then let our guard down — and now this."

According to the mother, who requested anonymity to protect her family's privacy, her daughter did not go to Harper's or the party in Grosse Pointe Woods, but rather became infected after attending a bonfire with friends who had been exposed to the students who had gone to Harper's. Now her whole family is in quarantine, and she's worried, anxious and scared.

Then of course, there are enough cases tied to bars across the country that Texas and Florida have ordered theirs to close statewide.
« Last Edit: June 27, 2020, 12:23:13 PM by OtherJen »

Physicsteacher

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2653 on: June 27, 2020, 10:30:41 AM »
Bloop bloop, you are in a massively low risk area.  The rest of us in this discussion are in medium to high risk areas.  Please recognize your Australian privilege.

It is my understanding that Australia isn't mandating masks precisely because the chances of encountering anyone with a COVID infection is low. I'd hazard a guess that someone living living in a state with a mask requirement (as was specified in the question) faces higher risk than Bloop Bloop.

bigblock440

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2654 on: June 27, 2020, 10:57:20 AM »
D&D group (6 people total) in a rural area with just a couple of old cases of COVID, yet our state says everyone must wear a mask pretty much everywhere.

Would you comply?

Yes. In March, one person unknowingly brought COVID-19 into a restaurant in a rural northern Michigan county (pop. 25,000) and infected several other patrons that night, who then went on to infect several dozen others. It only takes one person.

Is it just me, or are the people saying they wouldn’t wear a mask generally giving the excuse “I’m not that likely to get it, so why should I wear a mask?” while the people who say they would are saying “Yes, so that I don’t infect others” (which is the actual main point of wearing a mask)?

Um, yes, if they haven't left their house for 3 weeks, why would wearing a mask be preventing anything?

American GenX

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2655 on: June 27, 2020, 11:18:33 AM »
I wouldn't be fussed with wearing a face mask inside a grocery store but I see maybe 10% of the population doing that so it's clearly not just me who doesn't do it and I think beneath a certain critical level of use, face masks do little.

Face masks are proven to significantly reduce the spread of COVID-19.  The top experts in the field highly recommend wearing them.  There was a symptomatic hairdresser that had over 100 customers, and after all of the contract tracing was completed, it was determined that not a single one had gotten COVID-19.  The hairdresser wore a mask.  I see compliance of wearing masks at about 80% in grocery stores, and we have only 10 to 15 known cases in the county now.  That helps explain why there's no surge in my state compared to these states where young people are stupid and selfish running around without masks.

I wish they wouldn't allow anyone in without a mask.  When I went to Walmart a couple weeks ago, they weren't letting in anyone without a mask.  One guy tried to hold a napkin to his face, and they said that won't fly.  So he left.

LWYRUP

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2656 on: June 27, 2020, 12:01:33 PM »
In MD I have seen close to 100% compliance with masks indoors (granted I don't go out much) and we are trending sharply downward despite being in a very dense area. 

There is absolutely no reason other parts of the USA should be seeing a spike.  There is an established playbook now and it is not that hard. 

Simply tell all the local businesses that they will be shut down unless they enforce the mask rule, and also earmark some funds to provide masks to low income persons that may need them rather than just trying to arrest them for not complying.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2657 on: June 27, 2020, 12:32:23 PM »
Kingston Ontario is having a spike from a salon (nails and hair). Good presentation of how it happened on CBC.ca

I also saw a scientific article out of China where they looked at virus shed from asymptomatic carriers. It was large and prolonged.  So anyone in an area with cases could be shedding virus without knowing it, especially if they are doing indoor shopping without wearing a mask.

Jack0Life

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2658 on: June 27, 2020, 12:40:48 PM »
In MD I have seen close to 100% compliance with masks indoors (granted I don't go out much) and we are trending sharply downward despite being in a very dense area. 

There is absolutely no reason other parts of the USA should be seeing a spike.  There is an established playbook now and it is not that hard. 

Simply tell all the local businesses that they will be shut down unless they enforce the mask rule, and also earmark some funds to provide masks to low income persons that may need them rather than just trying to arrest them for not complying.

This is exactly what I'm preaching for months. Its a easy playbook but we get all this nonsense about "freedom" "individuality" "entitlement".
In states that has mandated masks, the results are day and night but people just don't get it. You can't argue with people that "just don't get it". Its like arguing if its daytime or night time. If its daytime and someone tell you its "night time", how are you suppose to argue that point when they lack the fundamental.
Another example when NY was the epidemic center for Covid. Their Governor took swift action mandating masks back in April and look at the results. The latest new cases in NY is something like 700+ cases VS Florida where its close to 9000 cases.

EDIT: Actually Florida hit another record yesterday with over 9,500+. Graph updated.
« Last Edit: June 27, 2020, 12:47:51 PM by Jack0Life »

Roland of Gilead

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2659 on: June 27, 2020, 12:47:27 PM »
I guess I misrepresented the question.  None of us in the D&D group (6 people total) would go if we have to wear a mask because it is extremely uncomfortable to do that for 4+ hours.  Plus we are chugging coffee and eating snacks during the game.   We do sit about 5 or 6 feet away from each other but there are cats at the DM's house.

My question is not would you wear a mask, but rather, would you go to a D&D game in a remote rural area with zero new cases and only a couple of old cases in the whole county if masks were required in your state but everyone at the game didn't want to wear them?

(It isn't clear if masks are required for social events in a home...it says public areas and stores)

Jack0Life

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2660 on: June 27, 2020, 12:56:04 PM »
I guess I misrepresented the question.  None of us in the D&D group (6 people total) would go if we have to wear a mask because it is extremely uncomfortable to do that for 4+ hours.  Plus we are chugging coffee and eating snacks during the game.   We do sit about 5 or 6 feet away from each other but there are cats at the DM's house.

My question is not would you wear a mask, but rather, would you go to a D&D game in a remote rural area with zero new cases and only a couple of old cases in the whole county if masks were required in your state but everyone at the game didn't want to wear them?

(It isn't clear if masks are required for social events in a home...it says public areas and stores)

Well, you presented a scenario that totally different from what we're talking when masks mandating is necessary.
Private functions among your family and friends are close to impossible to regulate(unless you're talking weddings and the likes). In those small private functions you just hope that everyone is healthy.
I would like to see the government take the 1st step. Require all businesses to have their employees and customers inside to have masks. This can easily be done. Just like health code violations. Laws aren't made, police aren't involve. Businesses that don't follow this easy first step are subject to fines and/or shutdown.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2661 on: June 27, 2020, 12:57:21 PM »
If people were sitting 6+ feet apart and washing hands, etc I would go. Maybe the dice could be cleaned or everyone could have their own.  I wear a mask (sometimes surgical, sometimes N95 depending on what I am doing that day) sometimes for 13+ hours at work and I just cant with people complaining about the discomfort of short term gatherings.

LWYRUP

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2662 on: June 27, 2020, 01:01:46 PM »
I guess I misrepresented the question.  None of us in the D&D group (6 people total) would go if we have to wear a mask because it is extremely uncomfortable to do that for 4+ hours.  Plus we are chugging coffee and eating snacks during the game.   We do sit about 5 or 6 feet away from each other but there are cats at the DM's house.

My question is not would you wear a mask, but rather, would you go to a D&D game in a remote rural area with zero new cases and only a couple of old cases in the whole county if masks were required in your state but everyone at the game didn't want to wear them?

(It isn't clear if masks are required for social events in a home...it says public areas and stores)

I would do it outside and keep social distance and not wear a mask in that context.  I would just skip if it was indoors.

Who knows if there are asymptomatic cases in your county and you are at the beginning of a big spike.  Not worth the risk if you are in the USA given our current trajectory.

I did play tennis with a friend yesterday.  We drove separately, played, short fistbump.  So you can try to navigate these things without being a total recluse.

Physicsteacher

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2663 on: June 27, 2020, 01:18:13 PM »
I guess I misrepresented the question.  None of us in the D&D group (6 people total) would go if we have to wear a mask because it is extremely uncomfortable to do that for 4+ hours.  Plus we are chugging coffee and eating snacks during the game.   We do sit about 5 or 6 feet away from each other but there are cats at the DM's house.

My question is not would you wear a mask, but rather, would you go to a D&D game in a remote rural area with zero new cases and only a couple of old cases in the whole county if masks were required in your state but everyone at the game didn't want to wear them?

(It isn't clear if masks are required for social events in a home...it says public areas and stores)
Personally, I would choose not to attend. I would not be enthusiastic about spending multiple hours in an enclosed space with several people who aren't members of my household and who aren't wearing masks. If the group would consider moving the game outside, my answer might be different.

My spouse and roommate use Roll20 with their Sunday afternoon D&D group now that the players are scattered across the country. There are ways to get gaming and social interaction without the risk of spending hours indoors together, and if masks are a no go, I'd look into these alternatives.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2664 on: June 27, 2020, 01:26:58 PM »
I guess I misrepresented the question.  None of us in the D&D group (6 people total) would go if we have to wear a mask because it is extremely uncomfortable to do that for 4+ hours.  Plus we are chugging coffee and eating snacks during the game.   We do sit about 5 or 6 feet away from each other but there are cats at the DM's house.

My question is not would you wear a mask, but rather, would you go to a D&D game in a remote rural area with zero new cases and only a couple of old cases in the whole county if masks were required in your state but everyone at the game didn't want to wear them?

(It isn't clear if masks are required for social events in a home...it says public areas and stores)

I would go if it were outside and I trusted the other attendees' judgement.

DadJokes

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2665 on: June 27, 2020, 01:49:59 PM »
Our weekly board game group (8 people) began meeting up again about a month ago. One member told us that we were as irresponsible as drunk drivers and won't be returning. That's okay by me, as he was a difficult person to play with anyway (paralysis by analysis).

To this point, no one in our group knows anyone who has contracted the virus. We use hand sanitizer frequently but don't wear masks. It's a risk we're willing to accept, and I wear a mask when I go anywhere else to avoid spreading anything I catch at the group.

gaja

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2666 on: June 27, 2020, 01:55:32 PM »
Summer holiday season, and we are politely asked to stay close to home. Tourists from a few countries (Denmark, Iceland, Finland, Faroes, Greenland) are welcome, but everyone else are declined at the border. So what do people do? They wait until the toll stations close, and sneak across the border at night. There are reports from northern Norway about Chinese tourists flying into Sweden and crossing the border in rural mountain regions to avoid the police, and people working at the best known tourist destinations report meeting people from all over the world. Some are people who have been here for a long time (exchange students, etc), but some have clearly arrived during the pandemic shut down.

The level of people's selfishness continues to surprise me.

Gremlin

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2667 on: June 27, 2020, 02:45:18 PM »
When you have a disease that mainly targets the elderly (or at least here in Australia it seems to only cause permanent damage in middle-aged and elderly individuals) and when you have a young populace that's been locked down for 3 months, it's just difficult to enforce. That's human nature.

Just as an FYI, you may not come across them in your line of work, and it hasn't to date had media coverage, but the bolded part is simply not true.  I'm aware of several cases of Australians in their 20s with long-term sequelae now.  Not all respiratory either.  Obviously commensurately lower than in nations with a higher incidence of COVID, but the assertion that it's ONLY an issue for those in middle to later ages is wrong.

I'm not saying that the risk isn't small if you are in Australia and you haven't yet had it.  Simply that it's wrong to assert it only causes permanent damage to middle-aged and elderly.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2668 on: June 27, 2020, 02:56:58 PM »
Our weekly board game group (8 people) began meeting up again about a month ago. One member told us that we were as irresponsible as drunk drivers and won't be returning. That's okay by me, as he was a difficult person to play with anyway (paralysis by analysis).

To this point, no one in our group knows anyone who has contracted the virus. We use hand sanitizer frequently but don't wear masks. It's a risk we're willing to accept, and I wear a mask when I go anywhere else to avoid spreading anything I catch at the group.

What kind of board games do you play? Is your area mandating masks in public yet?

Plina

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2669 on: June 27, 2020, 03:17:09 PM »
Summer holiday season, and we are politely asked to stay close to home. Tourists from a few countries (Denmark, Iceland, Finland, Faroes, Greenland) are welcome, but everyone else are declined at the border. So what do people do? They wait until the toll stations close, and sneak across the border at night. There are reports from northern Norway about Chinese tourists flying into Sweden and crossing the border in rural mountain regions to avoid the police, and people working at the best known tourist destinations report meeting people from all over the world. Some are people who have been here for a long time (exchange students, etc), but some have clearly arrived during the pandemic shut down.

The level of people's selfishness continues to surprise me.

Sweden has closed borders from people coming from outside of EU, like the rest of the EU has done, so it seems like false rumor that Chinese tourists fly in to Sweden so that they can sneak in to Norway. To be able to do that they would need to have been staying in some of the EU countries before closure.

But I agree about the selfishness. We hear about norwegians that sneak across the border to shop in Sweden. In northern Finland the finnish can go to Sweden and now the swedes are blamed for infecting the finns that are the ones that ”need” to shop cheaper alcohol and other necessities in Sweden. I understand people that pass the border due to work in Sweden but I don’t understand those that do it for shopping.


DadJokes

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2670 on: June 27, 2020, 05:03:11 PM »
Our weekly board game group (8 people) began meeting up again about a month ago. One member told us that we were as irresponsible as drunk drivers and won't be returning. That's okay by me, as he was a difficult person to play with anyway (paralysis by analysis).

To this point, no one in our group knows anyone who has contracted the virus. We use hand sanitizer frequently but don't wear masks. It's a risk we're willing to accept, and I wear a mask when I go anywhere else to avoid spreading anything I catch at the group.

What kind of board games do you play? Is your area mandating masks in public yet?

The county mayor announced that masks would be required about a week ago. The firestorm it caused was typical of the "muh freedom" crowd. It turns out that he doesn't have the authority to mandate masks, so he had to walk his statement back, noting that he just wanted to impress how important it is to wear them as cases have begun to rise in our state. For what it's worth, I'd have no problem wearing a mask while playing board games.

We play a lot of Euro-style games. Wingspan, Everdell, Istanbul, Root, and Clank! are among our favorites. There are so many games that I think I play at least one new game every week.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2671 on: June 27, 2020, 05:07:28 PM »
Bloop bloop, you are in a massively low risk area.  The rest of us in this discussion are in medium to high risk areas.  Please recognize your Australian privilege.

THANK YOU. We have several dozen cases now linked to one bar just outside of the state capitol, and just last week we were considered to have COVID-19 under control in our state. UPDATE: Harper's COVID-19 outbreak reaches 76 cases, How coronavirus spread from East Lansing bar to the Grosse Pointes

From the second article:
Quote
The party was held on a Friday night, parents said. The guest who had been to Harper's was symptomatic during the party, got sicker over the weekend and was tested for COVID-19 on Monday, though didn't share the positive results with friends until Tuesday night, parents said.

By then, the virus had spread among college-age kids hanging out for the summer.

"I'm just so frustrated," said one mother, whose 19-year-old daughter has tested positive for COVID-19 after attending a bonfire with friends in Grosse Pointe. "I'm so sad. We stayed home as ordered and then let our guard down — and now this."

According to the mother, who requested anonymity to protect her family's privacy, her daughter did not go to Harper's or the party in Grosse Pointe Woods, but rather became infected after attending a bonfire with friends who had been exposed to the students who had gone to Harper's. Now her whole family is in quarantine, and she's worried, anxious and scared.

Saturday update: 85 coronavirus cases linked to Harper's in East Lansing

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2672 on: June 27, 2020, 05:08:46 PM »
That sounds like the exact thing that happened in our county, down to the mayor having to walk it back. I am personally glad that the mayor made a statement because hopefully it will embolden businesses to require it of their customers.

I have never played any of those, but I will look them up. My spouse and I are the only people in our circle that like board games (my siblings will get absolutely murderous over a game of spoons or phase 10 though) so we are limited in what we play.

obstinate

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2673 on: June 27, 2020, 05:18:46 PM »
Bloop bloop, you are in a massively low risk area.  The rest of us in this discussion are in medium to high risk areas.  Please recognize your Australian privilege.
There's also plenty of evidence to suggest that you only have to get a little unlucky for COVID to spread silently in a community and get out of control. I hope I never have to hear what Bloop has to say if the Australia situation ever gets out of control. "Who could have predicted this? Not my fault, at least, 99.9% chance it wasn't my fault." Which is something that will be equally true for whoever's fault it is.

DadJokes

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2674 on: June 27, 2020, 05:24:02 PM »
That sounds like the exact thing that happened in our county, down to the mayor having to walk it back. I am personally glad that the mayor made a statement because hopefully it will embolden businesses to require it of their customers.

I have never played any of those, but I will look them up. My spouse and I are the only people in our circle that like board games (my siblings will get absolutely murderous over a game of spoons or phase 10 though) so we are limited in what we play.

Based on a couple of your posts that I've seen recently, I have a strong feeling that we live in the same county.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2675 on: June 27, 2020, 05:57:52 PM »
Neighbors!

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2676 on: June 27, 2020, 08:07:15 PM »
Bloop bloop, you are in a massively low risk area.  The rest of us in this discussion are in medium to high risk areas.  Please recognize your Australian privilege.
There's also plenty of evidence to suggest that you only have to get a little unlucky for COVID to spread silently in a community and get out of control. I hope I never have to hear what Bloop has to say if the Australia situation ever gets out of control. "Who could have predicted this? Not my fault, at least, 99.9% chance it wasn't my fault." Which is something that will be equally true for whoever's fault it is.

I'm trying to resist commenting but we may not have to wait long for this.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2677 on: June 27, 2020, 08:35:45 PM »
When you have a disease that mainly targets the elderly (or at least here in Australia it seems to only cause permanent damage in middle-aged and elderly individuals) and when you have a young populace that's been locked down for 3 months, it's just difficult to enforce. That's human nature.

Just as an FYI, you may not come across them in your line of work, and it hasn't to date had media coverage, but the bolded part is simply not true.  I'm aware of several cases of Australians in their 20s with long-term sequelae now.  Not all respiratory either.  Obviously commensurately lower than in nations with a higher incidence of COVID, but the assertion that it's ONLY an issue for those in middle to later ages is wrong.

I'm not saying that the risk isn't small if you are in Australia and you haven't yet had it.  Simply that it's wrong to assert it only causes permanent damage to middle-aged and elderly.

Sure. I should have said "mainly" not only. As you say, I haven't seen any figures in our media about any long-term sequelae in young people. We know for a fact that no one under 42 has died from it in this country and the median age of death is in the 80s.

Bloop bloop, you are in a massively low risk area.  The rest of us in this discussion are in medium to high risk areas.  Please recognize your Australian privilege.

I have only ever spoken for myself and I have made clear my own situation so there should not be any confusion that what I say doesn't apply to someone who lives in New York or Florida. If I lived in one of those two places I'd be using online delivery and self-isolating, hard.

It's interesting because the current situation in Victoria with a modest second wave of cases has been linked to families and extended families and (according to the government) is mostly traceable to (1) quarantine hotels and (2) a ring of a few suburbs. It would be logical and have utilitarian benefit to simply lock down residents in those suburbs rather than locking down the entire state. It would also be logical to simply ban large family gatherings (for example, say that no more than 5 people can gather in one home, unless they all reside there) since it's been shown in our state that most transmission is among intimates or co-workers under the same roof.

Gremlin

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2678 on: June 27, 2020, 11:05:58 PM »
Sure. I should have said "mainly" not only. As you say, I haven't seen any figures in our media about any long-term sequelae in young people. We know for a fact that no one under 42 has died from it in this country and the median age of death is in the 80s.

From the evidence I've seen, "mainly" is not a correct statement either.  There are two poor outcomes, namely "Death" and "Long-term sequelae".  There's nothing I've seen that indicates the incidence of poor outcomes is correlated with age.  As you've pointed out, the incidence of death appears to be highly correlated with age.  Join the dots on what that means for younger people and long-term health outcomes.  Those presenting with post-COVID pancreatic, nephrological, neurological, respiratory and cardiac issues all appear to have an age skew.  It just happens to more closely align to the age skew in the distribution of disease incidence, not the age skew in the distribution of disease mortality.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2679 on: June 28, 2020, 06:22:38 AM »
If they start back schools, it is the little kids who are going to be the disease spreaders.  There is zero concept of washing hands in the 5 to 8 year old crowd and they are not going to practice any kind of distancing when not under adult supervision.  I am already seeing groups of kids playing the street or someone's yard (6 or 7 kids, so probably not all the same household).


Hula Hoop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2680 on: June 28, 2020, 07:06:33 AM »
@Hula Hoop, I usually am a defender of America in many ways but your post is spot on and there's not much more I can add.

Yeah, in case it wasn't clear, I'm an American living in Italy. And I usually defend the US too - not everything but just on certain things.

My relatives are in NYC so I've been watching this with horror from afar.  While it's true that NY seemed to do the right thing to reduce numbers, I'm also under no illusion that NY will be able to keep it's numbers in control once things start shooting up everywhere else.

Actually as an American living outside the US, one thing that has been really sad is watching the US' prestige degrade before my eyes.  Italians tend to think of the US as this golden land of opportunity (so many of them have relatives who emigrated to the US and did really well).  I used to have Italians say to me all the time "if you're from America, why on earth did you decide to move here?"  But now our Italian friends and random people I meet just seem to feel sorry for me - especially if they learn that I'm from NYC.

LWYRUP

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2681 on: June 28, 2020, 07:32:45 AM »
@Hula Hoop, I usually am a defender of America in many ways but your post is spot on and there's not much more I can add.

Yeah, in case it wasn't clear, I'm an American living in Italy. And I usually defend the US too - not everything but just on certain things.

My relatives are in NYC so I've been watching this with horror from afar.  While it's true that NY seemed to do the right thing to reduce numbers, I'm also under no illusion that NY will be able to keep it's numbers in control once things start shooting up everywhere else.

Actually as an American living outside the US, one thing that has been really sad is watching the US' prestige degrade before my eyes.  Italians tend to think of the US as this golden land of opportunity (so many of them have relatives who emigrated to the US and did really well).  I used to have Italians say to me all the time "if you're from America, why on earth did you decide to move here?"  But now our Italian friends and random people I meet just seem to feel sorry for me - especially if they learn that I'm from NYC.

Yeah, I understand.  My parents immigrated from a small European country that was formerly much poorer than the USA but is now richer, so sometimes I really wonder why I'm here.  I am technically an EU citizen (with a very expired passport I need to dust off) and could (and should) get it for my kids as well, and could bring my wife through spousal rights.  But USA has been good to my family personally and my wife doesn't want to move (she's more introverted than me and this is where her family and home is) so here we are.  (My father and his family are double-immigrants, as they hail from an Eastern European country that's on paper still significantly less wealthy, but you know if you at people's actual lifestyles (smaller houses, more home cooking, more low key vacations, more time with family, etc.) money doesn't tell the whole story. 

I mean I think America is a great place with a lot of positive attributes (and Donald Trump is egregious but there are other precedents, Bolsonaro, Berlusconi, Duerte, etc., unfortunately "bigoted right wing populist" is not just an American phenomenon, and I really do think this is just a bad moment in our history that will pass), but we really did mess this up.  And we've generally had a self-imposed rough 20 years since the Iraq war.  A lot of own goals there. 

As long as we are on this subject, I really don't think it's sustainable for 4% of the world's population to try to play unilateral, perpetual world police and I don't think it's been beneficial for Americans (I'd like us to spend less on our military, and I actually agree with Trump that our NATO allies need to step up -- or we need to pull back) and we've made a lot of unnecessary enemies by trying to fulfill that role. 

I really wouldn't mind if after all this everyone (Americans and international) started to recognize us as just one of many countries with a bunch of strengths and a bunch of weaknesses just like everyone else.  It's ridiculous to try to lead the world while so much of our internal situation is in disarray.  And, on the flip side, if the world thinks it's important to try to fix certain situations in the middle east, etc. I'd like to see some other countries spend significant money and put lives on the line as well, and if nobody else can be bothered then we should just mind our own business and focus on fixing our own shit as well. 
« Last Edit: June 28, 2020, 07:37:25 AM by LWYRUP »

ender

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2682 on: June 28, 2020, 08:00:26 AM »
The part about masks that drives me nuts is how many people post stupid stuff like "lol a mask is as effective against a virus as a chain link fence is against mosquitos!"

Look, if you want to not wear a mask at least have somewhat rational reasons. If you want to say something like "I don't think the collective risk of not wearing masks is high enough, so I won't wear masks in crowded places" I can respect (though strongly disagree, especially in the cases of bars/crowded churches and all that type of stuff) that your perspective at least has some credibility. Or rather, it is at least somewhat defensible, given the number of places with such low/zero numbers of cases.

But if you refuse to wear masks because you say they do nothing, that's just ignorant. Are they going to reduce 100% of transmission? Of course not, but the point isn't going from 100% to 0%. N95 masks literally by design don't stop 100% of particles. They aren't a golden bullet, though collectively it'd get us pretty close.

The problem is overwhelmingly the only reason I hear people not wear masks is the latter reason. Very few people are approaching it from the former, which makes sense - you're basically saying "I don't care about the collective risk of a pandemic spreading uncontrolled."

ageless-human

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2683 on: June 28, 2020, 08:18:20 AM »
I'm fine with wearing a mask, but the only place I don't want to is the gym. I could be completely wrong, but in the gym environment where sweat is getting on everything, does the mask really do anything? Getting the mask sweaty and rubbing again the skin is uncomfortable and having sensitive skin it will likely cause outbreaks.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2684 on: June 28, 2020, 08:49:22 AM »
I'm fine with wearing a mask, but the only place I don't want to is the gym. I could be completely wrong, but in the gym environment where sweat is getting on everything, does the mask really do anything? Getting the mask sweaty and rubbing again the skin is uncomfortable and having sensitive skin it will likely cause outbreaks.


Masks impede breathing.  This is tolerable if you're sitting or walking around.  In a gym type environment I doubt you would be able to do a hard workout without passing out, so I wouldn't expect many to adhere to mask protocols in a gym.  For this reason I don't believe it's possible to reopen gyms safely, and they should be one of the last places to open.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2685 on: June 28, 2020, 09:24:17 AM »
I'm fine with wearing a mask, but the only place I don't want to is the gym. I could be completely wrong, but in the gym environment where sweat is getting on everything, does the mask really do anything? Getting the mask sweaty and rubbing again the skin is uncomfortable and having sensitive skin it will likely cause outbreaks.


Masks impede breathing.  This is tolerable if you're sitting or walking around.  In a gym type environment I doubt you would be able to do a hard workout without passing out, so I wouldn't expect many to adhere to mask protocols in a gym.  For this reason I don't believe it's possible to reopen gyms safely, and they should be one of the last places to open.

Our apartment gym will be reopening soon.  I am guessing that strength exercises would be OK while wearing a mask, although rest breaks would need to be longer.  A mask should be worn since more droplets are both produced and inhaled with deep breathing, as choir infections have shown.  I agree that any sort of heavy aerobic activity should not be done wearing a mask, which means not doing it in a gym.

ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2686 on: June 28, 2020, 09:43:27 AM »
Bloop bloop, you are in a massively low risk area.  The rest of us in this discussion are in medium to high risk areas.  Please recognize your Australian privilege.

THANK YOU. We have several dozen cases now linked to one bar just outside of the state capitol, and just last week we were considered to have COVID-19 under control in our state. UPDATE: Harper's COVID-19 outbreak reaches 76 cases, How coronavirus spread from East Lansing bar to the Grosse Pointes

From the second article:
Quote
The party was held on a Friday night, parents said. The guest who had been to Harper's was symptomatic during the party, got sicker over the weekend and was tested for COVID-19 on Monday, though didn't share the positive results with friends until Tuesday night, parents said.

By then, the virus had spread among college-age kids hanging out for the summer.

"I'm just so frustrated," said one mother, whose 19-year-old daughter has tested positive for COVID-19 after attending a bonfire with friends in Grosse Pointe. "I'm so sad. We stayed home as ordered and then let our guard down — and now this."

According to the mother, who requested anonymity to protect her family's privacy, her daughter did not go to Harper's or the party in Grosse Pointe Woods, but rather became infected after attending a bonfire with friends who had been exposed to the students who had gone to Harper's. Now her whole family is in quarantine, and she's worried, anxious and scared.

Then of course, there are enough cases tied to bars across the country that Texas and Florida have ordered theirs to close statewide.

I know I come at this from a lawyer's perspective, where you have to prove causation by at least a preponderance of the evidence, but I have a huge problem with health officials and others linking COVID to certain situations.

In workers' compensation cases, for example, no worker could ever file a claim for COVID, because it would be legally impossible to prove that the employee contracted the illness at work. There are just too many other variables to consider.  This is the case with almost all illness-related issues and the law -- you can't prove causation, so you can't even make that claim (there are some extremely limited exceptions).

Yet our health departments continue to think they can prove that this or that started at some bar. How do they know? It's impossible to prove. These people could have had it when they went there or got it when they stopped for gas on the way home.

All this "linking" is absurd on its face.

If they start back schools, it is the little kids who are going to be the disease spreaders.  There is zero concept of washing hands in the 5 to 8 year old crowd and they are not going to practice any kind of distancing when not under adult supervision.  I am already seeing groups of kids playing the street or someone's yard (6 or 7 kids, so probably not all the same household).

Some good news on this front -- the American Academy of Pediatrics, which has over 64,000 members, believes we should be re-opening schools this fall:

https://services.aap.org/en/pages/2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-infections/clinical-guidance/covid-19-planning-considerations-return-to-in-person-education-in-schools/

Quote
With the above principles in mind, the AAP strongly advocates that all policy considerations for the coming school year should start with a goal of having students physically present in school. The importance of inperson learning is well-documented, and there is already evidence of the negative impacts on children because of school closures in the spring of 2020. Lengthy time away from school and associated interruption of supportive services often results in social isolation, making it difficult for schools to identify and address important learning deficits as well as child and adolescent physical or sexual abuse, substance use, depression, and suicidal ideation. This, in turn, places children and adolescents at considerable risk of morbidity and, in some cases, mortality. Beyond the educational impact and social impact of school closures, there has been substantial impact on food security and physical activity for children and families.

Policy makers must also consider the mounting evidence regarding COVID-19 in children and adolescents, including the role they may play in transmission of the infection. SARS-CoV-2 appears to behave differently in children and adolescents than other common respiratory viruses, such as influenza, on which much of the current guidance regarding school closures is based. Although children and adolescents play a major role in amplifying influenza outbreaks, to date, this does not appear to be the case with SARS-CoV-2. Although many questions remain, the preponderance of evidence indicates that children and adolescents are less likely to be symptomatic and less likely to have severe disease resulting from SARS-CoV-2 infection. In addition, children may be less likely to become infected and to spread infection. Policies to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 within schools must be balanced with the known harms to children, adolescents, families, and the community by keeping children at home.

Finally, policy makers should acknowledge that COVID-19 policies are intended to mitigate, not eliminate, risk. No single action or set of actions will completely eliminate the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but implementation of several coordinated interventions can greatly reduce that risk. For example, where physical distance cannot be maintained, students (over the age of 2 years) and staff can wear face coverings (when feasible). In the following sections, we review some general principles that policy makers should consider as they plan for the coming school year. For all of these, education for the entire school community regarding these measures should begin early, ideally at least several weeks before the start of the school year.

Mr. Green

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2687 on: June 28, 2020, 10:02:26 AM »
I know I come at this from a lawyer's perspective, where you have to prove causation by at least a preponderance of the evidence, but I have a huge problem with health officials and others linking COVID to certain situations.

In workers' compensation cases, for example, no worker could ever file a claim for COVID, because it would be legally impossible to prove that the employee contracted the illness at work. There are just too many other variables to consider.  This is the case with almost all illness-related issues and the law -- you can't prove causation, so you can't even make that claim (there are some extremely limited exceptions).

Yet our health departments continue to think they can prove that this or that started at some bar. How do they know? It's impossible to prove. These people could have had it when they went there or got it when they stopped for gas on the way home.

All this "linking" is absurd on its face.
This is where contact tracing becomes important. When you have 15 people who were at the same bar or party and get all get sick two days later it becomes statistically highly probable that they all got it at said bar or party. Then you get 15 different examples where 15 people all got sick after attending the same bar or party and it becomes a compelling case that those settings are where spread is happening the most. There are no absolutes in most of the things we do.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2020, 10:08:43 AM by Mr. Green »

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2688 on: June 28, 2020, 10:12:32 AM »
I know I come at this from a lawyer's perspective, where you have to prove causation by at least a preponderance of the evidence, but I have a huge problem with health officials and others linking COVID to certain situations.

In workers' compensation cases, for example, no worker could ever file a claim for COVID, because it would be legally impossible to prove that the employee contracted the illness at work. There are just too many other variables to consider.  This is the case with almost all illness-related issues and the law -- you can't prove causation, so you can't even make that claim (there are some extremely limited exceptions).

Yet our health departments continue to think they can prove that this or that started at some bar. How do they know? It's impossible to prove. These people could have had it when they went there or got it when they stopped for gas on the way home.

All this "linking" is absurd on its face.
This is where contact tracing becomes important. When you have 15 people who were at the same bar or party and get all get sick two days later it becomes statistically highly probable that they all got it at said bar or party. Then you get 15 different examples where 15 people all got sick after attending the same bar or party and it becomes a compelling case that those settings are where spread is happening the most. There are no absolutes in most of the things we do.

Yep. Let the epidemiology experts do their work.

ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2689 on: June 28, 2020, 10:17:04 AM »
I know I come at this from a lawyer's perspective, where you have to prove causation by at least a preponderance of the evidence, but I have a huge problem with health officials and others linking COVID to certain situations.

In workers' compensation cases, for example, no worker could ever file a claim for COVID, because it would be legally impossible to prove that the employee contracted the illness at work. There are just too many other variables to consider.  This is the case with almost all illness-related issues and the law -- you can't prove causation, so you can't even make that claim (there are some extremely limited exceptions).

Yet our health departments continue to think they can prove that this or that started at some bar. How do they know? It's impossible to prove. These people could have had it when they went there or got it when they stopped for gas on the way home.

All this "linking" is absurd on its face.
This is where contact tracing becomes important. When you have 15 people who were at the same bar or party and get all get sick two days later it becomes statistically highly probable that they all got it at said bar or party. Then you get 15 different examples where 15 people all got sick after attending the same bar or party and it becomes a compelling case that those settings are where spread is happening the most. There are no absolutes in most of the things we do.

I understand this in theory, but in practice, my understanding is that the incubation period is anywhere from 5 to 14 days. To me, that makes proving causation almost impossible.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2690 on: June 28, 2020, 10:55:18 AM »
I know I come at this from a lawyer's perspective, where you have to prove causation by at least a preponderance of the evidence, but I have a huge problem with health officials and others linking COVID to certain situations.

In workers' compensation cases, for example, no worker could ever file a claim for COVID, because it would be legally impossible to prove that the employee contracted the illness at work. There are just too many other variables to consider.  This is the case with almost all illness-related issues and the law -- you can't prove causation, so you can't even make that claim (there are some extremely limited exceptions).

Yet our health departments continue to think they can prove that this or that started at some bar. How do they know? It's impossible to prove. These people could have had it when they went there or got it when they stopped for gas on the way home.

All this "linking" is absurd on its face.
This is where contact tracing becomes important. When you have 15 people who were at the same bar or party and get all get sick two days later it becomes statistically highly probable that they all got it at said bar or party. Then you get 15 different examples where 15 people all got sick after attending the same bar or party and it becomes a compelling case that those settings are where spread is happening the most. There are no absolutes in most of the things we do.

I understand this in theory, but in practice, my understanding is that the incubation period is anywhere from 5 to 14 days. To me, that makes proving causation almost impossible.

You're right, of course, if your standard of proof is a preponderance of the evidence, but in the case of covid, do we really need to set the bar that high? In the event that epidemiologists misidentify the actual source of a few cases, here and there, and, maybe, ask a few people who weren't really exposed to quarantine unnecessarily, what have we really lost? Seems to me it would be better to quarantine a few folks who don't really need to, rather than the other way around.

ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2691 on: June 28, 2020, 11:18:11 AM »
You're right, of course, if your standard of proof is a preponderance of the evidence, but in the case of covid, do we really need to set the bar that high? In the event that epidemiologists misidentify the actual source of a few cases, here and there, and, maybe, ask a few people who weren't really exposed to quarantine unnecessarily, what have we really lost? Seems to me it would be better to quarantine a few folks who don't really need to, rather than the other way around.

I think it's easy to look at this on a micro-level, but almost impossible to grasp on a macro level.

Hundreds of thousands of weddings have been canceled. People have not been able to have funerals for relatives. Families are not allowed in delivery waiting rooms. Small businesses are getting crushed (while the big box stores surge). Kids are falling behind academically. Parents are stressed more than they ever have been. Food lines stretch miles long. The economic, social, and mental health consequences to these things are actually well known, yet they have all become subsumed by COVID.

We should be allowed to weigh the risks in our own lives. That's what the tacit approval of the protests was all about -- weighing the risks that systemic racism was worth protesting, even in the face of COVID. We should all be allowed to make that decision.

So yes, when you consider an isolated event or bar that has to shut down, ho hum. But we are talking a massive disruption of society, of families, of memories, of businesses, of our youth, all at the alter of a vaguely understood disease that is far less dangerous than we originally thought.

Forgive me if I require a higher burden of proof and not being willing to say "Well, at least we played it safe."

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2692 on: June 28, 2020, 11:47:47 AM »
You're right, of course, if your standard of proof is a preponderance of the evidence, but in the case of covid, do we really need to set the bar that high? In the event that epidemiologists misidentify the actual source of a few cases, here and there, and, maybe, ask a few people who weren't really exposed to quarantine unnecessarily, what have we really lost? Seems to me it would be better to quarantine a few folks who don't really need to, rather than the other way around.

I think it's easy to look at this on a micro-level, but almost impossible to grasp on a macro level.

Hundreds of thousands of weddings have been canceled. People have not been able to have funerals for relatives. Families are not allowed in delivery waiting rooms. Small businesses are getting crushed (while the big box stores surge). Kids are falling behind academically. Parents are stressed more than they ever have been. Food lines stretch miles long. The economic, social, and mental health consequences to these things are actually well known, yet they have all become subsumed by COVID.

We should be allowed to weigh the risks in our own lives. That's what the tacit approval of the protests was all about -- weighing the risks that systemic racism was worth protesting, even in the face of COVID. We should all be allowed to make that decision.

So yes, when you consider an isolated event or bar that has to shut down, ho hum. But we are talking a massive disruption of society, of families, of memories, of businesses, of our youth, all at the alter of a vaguely understood disease that is far less dangerous than we originally thought.

Forgive me if I require a higher burden of proof and not being willing to say "Well, at least we played it safe."

You're right. My thinking was more on a micro level. Like, if someone I had spent time with in an enclosed space, during the past week, contacted me and said she'd just tested positive for covid, I'd probably go get tested, as well, and voluntarily quarantine myself until I got the results, so that I didn't pass it on to family and friends. I wouldn't require absolute proof that my friend had actually been contagious on the specific day we were together in order to be willing to alter my behavior.

As far as the other things you mentioned goes, I agree that our society is now choosing to make huge changes on a macro level, like shutting down all schools and universities, closing places of worship, etc., for which, IMHO, we haven't really done a comprehensive cost benefit analysis. The actual societal costs of our governments' haphazard responses to covid aren't fully known yet, and the benefits are pretty sketchy, as well.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2693 on: June 28, 2020, 11:57:52 AM »

Our apartment gym will be reopening soon.  I am guessing that strength exercises would be OK while wearing a mask, although rest breaks would need to be longer.  A mask should be worn since more droplets are both produced and inhaled with deep breathing, as choir infections have shown.  I agree that any sort of heavy aerobic activity should not be done wearing a mask, which means not doing it in a gym.

Really hope ours does soon.  My plan is to just go in at like 4 AM when hopefully no one is there.

js82

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2694 on: June 28, 2020, 12:01:30 PM »
I guess I misrepresented the question.  None of us in the D&D group (6 people total) would go if we have to wear a mask because it is extremely uncomfortable to do that for 4+ hours.  Plus we are chugging coffee and eating snacks during the game.   We do sit about 5 or 6 feet away from each other but there are cats at the DM's house.

My question is not would you wear a mask, but rather, would you go to a D&D game in a remote rural area with zero new cases and only a couple of old cases in the whole county if masks were required in your state but everyone at the game didn't want to wear them?

(It isn't clear if masks are required for social events in a home...it says public areas and stores)

I think one of the critical questions in this scenario is: how careful are your friends being outside the D&D group?  If you're in a low-infection area and everyone's being reasonably cautious outside the group it's not unreasonable.  If anyone from your group is spending hours indoors in bars without a mask... maybe not such a good idea.

One of the things that's been a topic discussed in some forums has been the concept of "quarantine bubbles" - groups of friends who associate with each other, but are being very careful of their interactions outside that circle.  I think that's a totally viable way to approach this if you are in an area with near-zero cases and your friends are being careful overall.

Side note #1 - during the pandemic some of my friends have been doing RPG campaigns virtually using Tabletop Simulator + video/voice chat.  Not the same as face to face, but there are still options to play as a group if anyone from the group is uncomfortable with it.

Side Note #2 - don't know what time your D&D sessions are - but one option might be to move them outdoors(if you have paperweights to keep papers from blowing away) if your host has the ability to set up a table outside and the time/place give you enough light to play by.  My mom's in a social group that did this for a gathering, although they still wore masks.

Seadog

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2695 on: June 28, 2020, 12:04:40 PM »
Exactly.  If you are personally at risk, wearing a mask is for yourself.  If you are not personally at risk, wearing a mask is essentially an altruistic act.  I am not personally worried about getting Covid-19, but I am very concerned for my elderly parents.  I wear a mask to help prevent spread to people like my parents who might be vulnerable and hope others will do the same.  IMHO, anybody who thinks wearing a mask in public is a great hardship has probably led a pretty sheltered life.

I would argue with the exact same reasoning, but to a completely different conclusion. Anyone who thinks even a million people dying across the 7.5b we have on earth is something that requires curtailing of personal freedoms along side economic collapse has lived pretty sheltered life. This is not a scary virus in the big scope of things.  Perhaps compared to what's come down the pipes in the last 50 years yes, but compared to Polio and Small Pox and the other scourges of yesteryear, absolutely not. Go talk to anyone not in the west, or those living on a dollar a day and ask where COVID ranks on their list of concerns. Wake me up when another AIDS or TB comes along.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2696 on: June 28, 2020, 12:32:47 PM »
Go talk to anyone not in the west, or those living on a dollar a day and ask where COVID ranks on their list of concerns. Wake me up when another AIDS or TB comes along.


Precisely.  And it's the these groups being devastated the most economically.  Shelter in place is fine for the wealthy and privileged, not so much for the marginalized and poor.

LWYRUP

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2697 on: June 28, 2020, 01:02:39 PM »
I worry you all are setting up a false dichotomy. 

If the coronavirus continues to be a slow burn for several years, it is not clear that this will be any better for the economy or those without many resources than if we work hard to fight it now.  We are still very far from herd immunity, and in fact we don't fully understand whether we can obtain natural herd immunity or to what extent there can be reinfection (esp. after a certain period of time). 

The better we do at reducing spread, the more safe we will be and the easier it will be to manage the economy.  We also know right now what activities are most likely to spread the virus and what activities are least likely, so we can work to adapt by stopping the activities most likely to cause spread while encouraging people to continue activities least likely to cause spread. 

I agree that it is not feasible for everyone to just shelter in place for years at a time.  But it also seems like certain areas (e.g., Florida) have really barely put forth any effort, and that it going to make things difficult for them and for the parts of the country where we have put in the work. 

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2698 on: June 28, 2020, 01:09:25 PM »
As far as the other things you mentioned goes, I agree that our society is now choosing to make huge changes on a macro level, like shutting down all schools and universities, closing places of worship, etc., for which, IMHO, we haven't really done a comprehensive cost benefit analysis. The actual societal costs of our governments' haphazard responses to covid aren't fully known yet, and the benefits are pretty sketchy, as well.

We have done a pretty comprehensive analysis of it. While very far from an exact science and loads of assumptions and uncertainties in there the conclusion was that it is, in the medium and long run, cheaper in economic terms and much better in terms of health effects / lives saved to shut down until infection rate is very, very low - then keep it low with a low level of restrictions. This has - so far - proven to be correct, but time will tell if it ends up this way. One crucial aspect of this, which is also starting to be seen in the US, that if you have low restrictions and high infection risk people tend to a large extent to self-regulate. That means going out less, consuming less, spending less money. Younameit.

After a massive drop during the early phases of shutdown indicators like credit card usage etc are back to normal levels here. There has been some shifts in consumption patterns (less on travel, more on home improvement and so on) but the overall picture is that the economy is recovering pretty  fast.

This is still early stages of a pandemic that might last for a very long time, but so far so good at least.

former player

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2699 on: June 28, 2020, 01:49:22 PM »
A shutdown of everything other than essential services is a forced and rapid change toward Mustachianism.  I'm not sure why that's such a big problem on this forum.

The reason shutdown is hitting marginalised groups hardest is that they tend to be concentrated in  low-end industry (abattoirs, third world clothing manufacturers) and poorly paid personal and community services staff (cleaning, hairdressing, restaurant staff, carers, public transport staff, waste disposal staff).  That's why they  are the hardest hit groups.  It's a consequence of the poor government policies of the past that those now bleeding-hearts right-wingers didn't give a damn about in the past and still don't other than the consequences give them the opportunity to sound right-on while pushing their right-wing "mah freedom" agenda.

The solution isn't opening up services which spread disease before it's wise, it's making adequate (and well-managed) provision for workers and business owners while businesses are shut.  And providing decent education and training so that low-wage workers have options.