Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 299349 times)

the_fixer

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How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4100 on: October 16, 2020, 09:32:45 AM »
Sorry double post

wenchsenior

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4101 on: October 16, 2020, 10:35:23 AM »

(snip)

New Mexico is hitting all-time highs despite staying relatively locked-down - and the Governor is increasing it further now. Had 577 cases yesterday, 7-day average is above 400 which surpasses the previous peak in late July around 325. This is in a state of 2 million+ so about 20 new cases per 100,000. When I get back to the state at the beginning of September we were as low as about 130/day on average.

(snip)


Wow, we have about 750 new cases a day here in Ontario, which at a population of 15 million is 5 cases per 100,000. And we are freaking out since we were around 100 daily cases here in early August.

In the three hardest hit regions, not coincidently the largest cities, we've gone back to a modified stage 2 where bars, indoor dining, gyms, etc. are shut down.

Schools are open but the implementation has been a shit-show and our beloved minor hockey is shutting down in some regions. Halloween in cancelled in at least one city.

577 cases in the WHOLE STATE? Jesus, over here next door we're hitting an average of 200 new cases per day for weeks just in our single COUNTY, and our hospitals are getting close to capacity.  And yet, there's hardly any local concern about it (ETA, except the heads of our two hospitals, who are freaking out).  It's astonishing.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4102 on: October 16, 2020, 10:38:28 AM »

(snip)

New Mexico is hitting all-time highs despite staying relatively locked-down - and the Governor is increasing it further now. Had 577 cases yesterday, 7-day average is above 400 which surpasses the previous peak in late July around 325. This is in a state of 2 million+ so about 20 new cases per 100,000. When I get back to the state at the beginning of September we were as low as about 130/day on average.

(snip)


Wow, we have about 750 new cases a day here in Ontario, which at a population of 15 million is 5 cases per 100,000. And we are freaking out since we were around 100 daily cases here in early August.

In the three hardest hit regions, not coincidently the largest cities, we've gone back to a modified stage 2 where bars, indoor dining, gyms, etc. are shut down.

Schools are open but the implementation has been a shit-show and our beloved minor hockey is shutting down in some regions. Halloween in cancelled in at least one city.

577 cases in the WHOLE STATE? Jesus, over here next door we're hitting an average of 200 new cases per day for weeks just in our single COUNTY, and our hospitals are getting close to capacity.  And yet, there's hardly any local concern about it (ETA, except the heads of our two hospitals, who are freaking out).  It's astonishing.

Wisconsin?

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4103 on: October 16, 2020, 11:09:09 AM »

Not sure where you live but in the US we spend a large amount of money, time and effort on all sorts of enforcement / education on trying to reduce deaths and health related issues to pretty much any data point you can come up with.


So do we, obviously. And with much higher success than the US on probably on any data point you can come up with. Spending on health care is way lower than in the US but life expectancy is about 5 years longer and overall health in the population is much better. And oh, everyone has access to advanced health care of course and if you max out your own "deductible" you are looking at something like all of 200 dollars per year in out-of-pocket expenses. This is also partly of the reason why Covid-19 containment has been successful. People who suspect they are sick can stay home at their own free will with zero influence on pay or job security. And if you get sick and require hospitalization you will get the best treatment available which happens to be the same as anyone else can get. Our health system has been nowhere near capacity so far.

Im not in any way opposed to measures to contain Covid-19, even fairly drastic ones - if anyone should have that impression. I think we over here have struck a fairly good balance given out local circumstances which are obviously quite different than what a major world city like New York probably would need to do to obtain the same results. In my personal - and frankly largely irrelevant opinion - I think we have probably slightly overreacted in some key areas (like reopening day care and schools too late), but overall I think our politicians and the government has done a very good job in striking a balance so far. We do have the luxury of a government pretty well wired into reality and they mostly listens to the pandemic experts which also helps. My life is fairly normal these days and my personal sacrifices are so small they are not even worth mentioning plus I have gotten some side benefits like partly wfh which is a new one for me personally and I kind of enjoy. Once the kid's school was back in business it was all pretty good. The school closure lasted bit less than 2 months which everyone in hindsight agrees was too long.

What I have problems with is how all this is justified in gen pop. Now all of a sudden people pretend to have this newfound great care for the at-risk population. If you are not in an at-risk group due to age or underlying health problems Covid-19 isn't really that dangerous - probably less so than life itself. It is very much so for especially the elderly and also for someone with the wrong underlying condition(s) and also for a few random outliers. I simply don't believe in this newfound great care for these groups. And I'm pretty certain it will evaporate once there is an efficient vaccine available and we all can put this behind us. Or to put in another way, there is close to zero will to implement measures that on an annual basis, and definately over several years, would save way more lives than any Covid-19-motivated measure. Like just outright banning smoking, for example. Hence the reference to annual death toll from smoking. Which is truly a staggering number given how few  actively smokes.

wenchsenior

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4104 on: October 16, 2020, 11:21:48 AM »

(snip)

New Mexico is hitting all-time highs despite staying relatively locked-down - and the Governor is increasing it further now. Had 577 cases yesterday, 7-day average is above 400 which surpasses the previous peak in late July around 325. This is in a state of 2 million+ so about 20 new cases per 100,000. When I get back to the state at the beginning of September we were as low as about 130/day on average.

(snip)


Wow, we have about 750 new cases a day here in Ontario, which at a population of 15 million is 5 cases per 100,000. And we are freaking out since we were around 100 daily cases here in early August.

In the three hardest hit regions, not coincidently the largest cities, we've gone back to a modified stage 2 where bars, indoor dining, gyms, etc. are shut down.

Schools are open but the implementation has been a shit-show and our beloved minor hockey is shutting down in some regions. Halloween in cancelled in at least one city.

577 cases in the WHOLE STATE? Jesus, over here next door we're hitting an average of 200 new cases per day for weeks just in our single COUNTY, and our hospitals are getting close to capacity.  And yet, there's hardly any local concern about it (ETA, except the heads of our two hospitals, who are freaking out).  It's astonishing.

Wisconsin?

Texas, though the situation in my home state is also shocking.

bacchi

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4105 on: October 16, 2020, 12:37:49 PM »
What I have problems with is how all this is justified in gen pop. Now all of a sudden people pretend to have this newfound great care for the at-risk population. If you are not in an at-risk group due to age or underlying health problems Covid-19 isn't really that dangerous - probably less so than life itself.

Don't most people care for their elderly parents or grandparents?

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4106 on: October 16, 2020, 12:42:18 PM »
What's the deal with cracking down on drunk drivers?  We barely even have like 30 deaths/day in the USA due to drunk driving.  Seems pretty small compared to the 1,000/day we have from coronavirus.  Complete over reaction to drunk drivers IMO, we should just let it run rampant. 

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4107 on: October 16, 2020, 12:51:49 PM »
What I have problems with is how all this is justified in gen pop. Now all of a sudden people pretend to have this newfound great care for the at-risk population. If you are not in an at-risk group due to age or underlying health problems Covid-19 isn't really that dangerous - probably less so than life itself.

Don't most people care for their elderly parents or grandparents?
I care for mine and my girlfriends parents, they are all 70+ and mine are 80+. The rest I don't know and hence I don't really care and don't pretend to. And they are the ones who regularily die (being old and all). We went to see my parents in June and considered not going as we live in the capital (one of the local hotspots by our local standards) and they are old and my dad's overall health not the best. I briefly mentioned that to my mom and she would have none of that and we should most def come. That's their call, I guess.

In the western world somewhere between 0.6% and 1% of the population die every year from something. I find it immensely shallow to pretend this is anything people care about at all unless its one own's beloved ones.
« Last Edit: October 16, 2020, 01:04:06 PM by habanero »

rockstache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4108 on: October 16, 2020, 01:27:02 PM »

I care for mine and my girlfriends parents, they are all 70+ and mine are 80+. The rest I don't know and hence I don't really care and don't pretend to.
This is a frightening attitude. It's one that I knew that some people held, but not one I knew they would admit to.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4109 on: October 16, 2020, 02:02:03 PM »

I care for mine and my girlfriends parents, they are all 70+ and mine are 80+. The rest I don't know and hence I don't really care and don't pretend to.
This is a frightening attitude. It's one that I knew that some people held, but not one I knew they would admit to.

Doesn't seem frightening to me, at all, just realistic. The CDC says that, under normal circumstances, close to 8K people in the US die every day. That doesn't seem any more upsetting to me than the fact that ~10K babies are born each day. Life and death are both completely natural. When someone in my family or a close friend dies, I'm, of course, sad, but I can't say that I've ever worried too much about the fact that 400K+ people die from smoking cigarettes, every year. If I know them, I care. If not, they're just a number on a page.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4110 on: October 16, 2020, 02:06:22 PM »

I care for mine and my girlfriends parents, they are all 70+ and mine are 80+. The rest I don't know and hence I don't really care and don't pretend to.
This is a frightening attitude. It's one that I knew that some people held, but not one I knew they would admit to.

It's a victimless crime.  Like punching someone in the dark.

bacchi

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4111 on: October 16, 2020, 02:30:38 PM »
In the western world somewhere between 0.6% and 1% of the population die every year from something. I find it immensely shallow to pretend this is anything people care about at all unless its one own's beloved ones.

It's not an doesn't have to be an either-or.

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4112 on: October 16, 2020, 03:09:14 PM »

I care for mine and my girlfriends parents, they are all 70+ and mine are 80+. The rest I don't know and hence I don't really care and don't pretend to.
This is a frightening attitude. It's one that I knew that some people held, but not one I knew they would admit to.
The US has about 2.800.000 deaths per year. If we assume you sleep on average 7 hour per day you are left with 6205 hours per year or about 22 million seconds to mourn and care deeply. That gives you bit less than 8 seconds to mourn and deeply care about every life lost in the US, given all lives are equal and all.

Get real.
« Last Edit: October 16, 2020, 03:11:17 PM by habanero »

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4113 on: October 16, 2020, 03:23:14 PM »
What I have problems with is how all this is justified in gen pop. Now all of a sudden people pretend to have this newfound great care for the at-risk population. If you are not in an at-risk group due to age or underlying health problems Covid-19 isn't really that dangerous - probably less so than life itself.

Don't most people care for their elderly parents or grandparents?
I care for mine and my girlfriends parents, they are all 70+ and mine are 80+. The rest I don't know and hence I don't really care and don't pretend to. And they are the ones who regularily die (being old and all). We went to see my parents in June and considered not going as we live in the capital (one of the local hotspots by our local standards) and they are old and my dad's overall health not the best. I briefly mentioned that to my mom and she would have none of that and we should most def come. That's their call, I guess.

In the western world somewhere between 0.6% and 1% of the population die every year from something. I find it immensely shallow to pretend this is anything people care about at all unless its one own's beloved ones.

That's really sad. Besides our parents, husband and I have lots of aunts and uncles older than 60, and lots of friends between 60 and 90 years old.  There are loads of elderly people in my community who I don't know, but they also have loved ones and contribute to their community and the economy.

Yes, everyone dies, but a COVID death is usually in isolation, with no human contact beyond frightened, exhausted clinicians behind several layers of PPE, after days or weeks of painful intubation and organ failure. Contrast that with my three older relatives and two friends who died of non-COVID causes in the last 6 months: they were able to receive hospice care, and all were surrounded by family.
« Last Edit: October 16, 2020, 03:39:34 PM by OtherJen »

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4114 on: October 16, 2020, 03:25:36 PM »

I care for mine and my girlfriends parents, they are all 70+ and mine are 80+. The rest I don't know and hence I don't really care and don't pretend to.
This is a frightening attitude. It's one that I knew that some people held, but not one I knew they would admit to.
The US has about 2.800.000 deaths per year. If we assume you sleep on average 7 hour per day you are left with 6205 hours per year or about 22 million seconds to mourn and care deeply. That gives you bit less than 8 seconds to mourn and deeply care about every life lost in the US, given all lives are equal and all.

Get real.

So, I think that I understand your point habanero.  The human brain doesn't really process big numbers well.  I can hear 2.8 million deaths, but it just doesn't process in my brain in a way that makes me feel deeply sad/mourn.

That said, understanding what it's like to lose a best friend I'm able to care about the kind of impact that those imply for others.  So while I may not care for millions of dead people I don't know as much as say . . . my mom or dad, I do care that these deaths are happening because I know that they are someone's moms and dads.  I certainly am interested in minimizing the number.

I think that what's causing some friction in the responses is that you're trying to express the first concept, but failing to express the second.  This kinda makes you sound like a sociopath.

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4115 on: October 16, 2020, 04:42:29 PM »
It does sound cold.   There's a lot of evidence to support habanero's position though.

For example, consider the long term care homes in Ontario.     A huge fraction of the sars-cov2 deaths in the spring occurred in our long term care homes.   The public was outraged and the federal government volunteered the medical arm of the military to assist.

Guess what?   Our long term homes sucked back in 80's when my grandmother, who had Alzheimer's disease and an aggressive personality had to live in one.    They were terrible.   Nobody cared enough to fix things over the subsequent 30 years.

Now it's 3 months later in the pandemic and what happened to the outrage?     People care when it's in their face or when it's happening to their relatives, but not so much when it's some random senior citizens.

rockstache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4116 on: October 16, 2020, 05:05:35 PM »
It does sound cold.   There's a lot of evidence to support habanero's position though.

You’re right and I don’t dispute that s/he feels that way, or that other people do also. However, when you choose to surround yourself with good people who DO care about others, it can be jarring (and disgusting) to remember that quite a lot of people care only for themselves.

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4117 on: October 16, 2020, 06:46:05 PM »
Yeah, shutting bars down is not "at any cost". That is a hyperbolic statement at best. Other people's lives are worth more than our convenience. That being said, there is a middle ground that can sustain the economy in some fashion through the potential fall wave. A lot of it is wearing a mask and washing hands. The other part is not hanging out indoors with random strangers.

This was kind of my point, in a way. Some context: Where I live we have been very good at striking this balance for one reason or another - a fairly compliant population, high level of trust in government, demographics and maybe just some sheer luck. As of now we have 22 in hospitals of which 5 in ICU of which 2 on a ventilator. So it's a level of strain on the health system that's barely measurable and it has been like this since the march/april peak died out due to the measures implemented. Death toll is 278. Population bit over 5 mio in the country and measured in covid-19 deaths per capita we rank at 100-something in the world. And btw we do count every single one so the number is accurate give or take a very small handful. Unemployment is still higher than pre-Covid, but way, way down from the peak and by historical standards there is nothing special about the current rate. For most people life is fairly normal, but someone working in (or used to) working in hospitality, airlines or culture is probably gonna disagree with that statement.

With no measures or a non-compliant population etc the numbers would of course be higher, potentially by very, very much - that's not really debatable. But even with these - so far - very low number there is still an underlying anxiety in the population, a sense that every death from Covid-19 is a some major news item (it gets flashed in the news when it happens) and while we have the usual camps of laxing measures / keeping as is / tightening further the general consensus is that our politicians and other bodies of government have done a pretty good job so far while some details of this and that can of course be debated if should be more so or less so or skipped or if they should have done this instead of that.

If we continue at this pace for the rest of the year Covid-19 is probably gonna be among least common cause of death in the country for which there is any statistics apart from traffic deaths, of which we have very few as well. Still, even with these, on an international scale, stupid low numbers this is still seen as health risk numero uno. It isn't, it hasn't been but it could probably have been.

If we look at who has actually died from covid-19, 65% are aged 80+. If now "lives lost" has been introduced as the holy metric and what should guide society as a whole one at least has to be consistent and should also apply to other sides of life. I would for example assume that by very simple, non-invading measures like good hygiene, not sending children to school/kindergarden when sick etc a good chunk of annual deaths from the regular flu could be prevented, but it has never been even a topic of discussion despite claiming in the area of 1000 lives per year. And rinse and repeat for pretty much any cause of death that could have been prevented or at least delayed by a few years if this or that measure was taken. But people won't do that and when Covid-19 I guess everything will be back to normal and noone bar friends and family will really care when someone dies (at old age).

Humans are pretty bad at rationally assessing risks. And I don't buy it when pretty much everyone is running around claiming a sudden and great overall care for the elderly, chronically sick etc. Because it wasn't there before and I don't think it will be there afterwards when life returns to normal. If it was there to start with, quite a few things would be different.

And yes, of course inhaling a toxic substance is your own choice as opposed to getting a virus from some random person. But so is living a life that puts you in an at-risk-zone for a lot of nasty stuff including Covid-19. So if "lives" is the new currency, then it should apply elsewhere than the field of Covid-19. There are tons of lives to be saved or prolonged with much less invasive measures than we are currently seeing. Most "early" deaths come from lifestyle choices. Even these days with Covid-19 in the equation.

I agree that for your country COVID-19 seems to be a minor issue. Every geographic location is somewhat different in their risk and reasonable measures for a given risk.

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4118 on: October 17, 2020, 06:37:14 AM »
I certainly am interested in minimizing the number.

So are most people I would assume. I, for one, do not disagree with you on that, but it also has to be balanced against other factors in a society. In normal circumstances any society accepts that people die from something, even if those deaths could have been avoided or at least delayed if you really wanted to, but that would probably come with side effects you don't want - like lack of freedom for the individual. Our health authorities has openly stated that all the usual measures of cost/benefit in health has been thrown overboard now and also point out the problem that the definition of "health" has become very one-dimensional and the side effects of a prolonged situation can easily be far worse than the pandemic itself given how well it has been contained here. It is, however partly the winner's curse. Measures are deemed too harsh partly because they have been so successful. It's hard to know the outcome if you had loosened up or one thing or the other. The complete package was remarkably effective, but it's harder to know what was necessary and what wasn't.

What is new this time is that pretty much everywhere you get close to live coverage of the Covid-19 situation. Even here with very few infected/hospitalized/deaths there is constant newsflashes on number of infected updated several times per day and also when there is a death from covid-19 which happens every few days. I have never seeing anything like that ever before. There was for example one case here a few months ago with an outbreak in a care facility for elderly - think they had 5 covid deaths there over a few weeks. The manager was interviewed and he said something along the lines of it being sad, like any death, but in the same timeframe more than 30 had died in the same facility from other causes. None of which made the news in any way of course.

We actually have significantly  fewer deaths than usual this year. This is due to very few from Covid-19, and the social distancing etc also helps preventing the spread of other germs. Flu season came to a complete halt in mid-march when we did our "lockdown" which was unprecedented over here but very soft compared to what was done around the world. It is telling that even undertakers have to apply for government support as business is slow (which really is more due to not being able to sell the whole big packages around the funeral, but it still has some irony to it).

These days the number of Covid-19-deaths is pretty much the ultimate metric to gauge the success of a society and the metric against everything is measured and for which almost any sacrifice on other fronts can be deemed necessary without really considering cost/benefit. I find this a narrow way of looking at it - the swedes for example has gotten a lot of heat for how they approached this, but the Swedish approach was from the beginning to balance several factors and do "enough" but not too much. This is why they never closed schools for example - schools were deemed too important to close and if keeping schools open resulted in more infections (and by consequence deaths etc) that was a price worth paying in their view. Once you close day care and schools, especially for the youngest, you create a whole new world of problems they wanted to avoid. One can agree or disagree, but it's not like the approach is devoid of any logic or is sheer craziness. And the swedes are pretty compliant  - you don't have to ban stuff, treathen with prosecution or anything - the government urging the population to do this or that is generally sufficient to get the desired result. The wild west it's been portrayed as in the international press is very, very far from reality on the ground.
« Last Edit: October 17, 2020, 07:05:49 AM by habanero »

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4119 on: October 17, 2020, 08:28:07 AM »
As stated multiple times, Sweden and the US have very different national ethos. I suspect that Swedish society doesn't worship selfishness in the disguise of "freedom" and "personal rights."

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4120 on: October 17, 2020, 10:52:54 AM »
Wonder how many elderly people suffering from long-term illnesses have been killed relatively quickly, this year, by Covid-19? Given the choice of dying slowly from cancer or dementia, or dying in just a week or two from Covid. I know, for sure, which one I'd choose.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4121 on: October 17, 2020, 11:36:30 AM »
Are you trying to say that the families of and the elderly themselves dying from COVID should be grateful and view a ineptly managed pandemic as a mercy killing

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4122 on: October 17, 2020, 11:48:57 AM »
Wonder how many elderly people suffering from long-term illnesses have been killed relatively quickly, this year, by Covid-19? Given the choice of dying slowly from cancer or dementia, or dying in just a week or two from Covid. I know, for sure, which one I'd choose.

I suspect it's very different when you have a choice.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4123 on: October 17, 2020, 12:25:40 PM »
Are you trying to say that the families of and the elderly themselves dying from COVID should be grateful and view a ineptly managed pandemic as a mercy killing

Not at all. Only stating my personal preference. YMMV.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4124 on: October 17, 2020, 12:30:26 PM »
Wonder how many elderly people suffering from long-term illnesses have been killed relatively quickly, this year, by Covid-19? Given the choice of dying slowly from cancer or dementia, or dying in just a week or two from Covid. I know, for sure, which one I'd choose.

I suspect it's very different when you have a choice.

Yeah, I suspect you're right, Steve. I guess not many people are actually choosing to get Covid. If I or one of my close family members were terminally ill and suffering, I sure would be grateful for anything that sped things up, even if it wasn't an actual choice we got to make.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4125 on: October 17, 2020, 01:07:04 PM »
Wonder how many elderly people suffering from long-term illnesses have been killed relatively quickly, this year, by Covid-19? Given the choice of dying slowly from cancer or dementia, or dying in just a week or two from Covid. I know, for sure, which one I'd choose.

I suspect it's very different when you have a choice.

Yeah, I suspect you're right, Steve. I guess not many people are actually choosing to get Covid. If I or one of my close family members were terminally ill and suffering, I sure would be grateful for anything that sped things up, even if it wasn't an actual choice we got to make.

They’d be dying in isolation, without loved ones or normal hospice care. That’s not a good death.

NotJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4126 on: October 17, 2020, 01:34:44 PM »
Wonder how many elderly people suffering from long-term illnesses have been killed relatively quickly, this year, by Covid-19? Given the choice of dying slowly from cancer or dementia, or dying in just a week or two from Covid. I know, for sure, which one I'd choose.

I suspect it's very different when you have a choice.

Yeah, I suspect you're right, Steve. I guess not many people are actually choosing to get Covid. If I or one of my close family members were terminally ill and suffering, I sure would be grateful for anything that sped things up, even if it wasn't an actual choice we got to make.

They’d be dying in isolation, without loved ones or normal hospice care. That’s not a good death.

Not to mention the risk of spreading it to others before you get to isolation.  I'm all for a speedy death if that's your choice, but not at the expense of others.

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4127 on: October 17, 2020, 07:04:04 PM »
Yeah. It's not like you can just pass away in your sleep. You feel like you are slowly suffocating from the inability to oxygenate. You become more and more tachypneic as your lungs fill with fluid. Eventually you are either intubated or placed on a terminal opiate drip (to slow down your breathing and sedate you since the agonal gasping is usually a bit much). Would you still choose that route? Remember we may not be able to make that decision until it gets time to intubate, because we wouldn't want to end your life for a mild or moderate, but recoverable, illness.
 
« Last Edit: October 17, 2020, 07:07:45 PM by Abe »

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4128 on: October 17, 2020, 07:07:32 PM »
Speaking as a HCW who has been with positive patients as they prepare for death and through death, it’s not a death to be envied. Even the HCW are restricted in how much time they can spend with you, and the precious few moments you will have that other human near you they're essentially in a space suit.  Even for those who aren’t suffering terribly at the end (lots do, if they’re conscious) it’s a cold way to go.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4129 on: October 17, 2020, 08:12:08 PM »
Thanks for the HCWs' perspective on dying by covid. Guess I won't choose that way to die, assuming I get a choice. It doesn't sound very pleasant. I just thought it would be quicker and, therefore, better than suffering for a long time from something like cancer. Having seen people I love suffer, for months and months, from terminal cancer, I've come to believe strongly that we should all have a clear, legal right to end our lives, at any time, for basically any reason. Aside from people who are clearly temporarily depressed or crazy or whatever, all of us should be able to get a prescription for some pills we can take to end our lives when we are ready to die. I just can't imagine suffering for a long time, knowing that at the end I was just going to die anyway.

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4130 on: October 17, 2020, 09:29:15 PM »
Thanks for the HCWs' perspective on dying by covid. Guess I won't choose that way to die, assuming I get a choice. It doesn't sound very pleasant. I just thought it would be quicker and, therefore, better than suffering for a long time from something like cancer. Having seen people I love suffer, for months and months, from terminal cancer, I've come to believe strongly that we should all have a clear, legal right to end our lives, at any time, for basically any reason. Aside from people who are clearly temporarily depressed or crazy or whatever, all of us should be able to get a prescription for some pills we can take to end our lives when we are ready to die. I just can't imagine suffering for a long time, knowing that at the end I was just going to die anyway.

I agree with you. The barriers to a death with dignity are too high and arbitrary, specifically with regards to length of time left. Yes there is a risk of abuse, but I think the suffering that fully competent and sound-minded individuals have to endure for this theoretical risk is unnecessary. 

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4131 on: October 18, 2020, 02:59:57 AM »
Even the HCW are restricted in how much time they can spend with you, and the precious few moments you will have that other human near you they're essentially in a space suit. 
Not in Victoria! Not even an N95 fit-tested mask.

Why yes, we did have a lot of healthcare worker infections, why do you ask?

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4132 on: October 18, 2020, 05:36:04 AM »
@Kyle Schuant we don’t have fit tested N95s either and haven’t for a long time.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4133 on: October 18, 2020, 05:37:53 AM »
Thanks for the HCWs' perspective on dying by covid. Guess I won't choose that way to die, assuming I get a choice. It doesn't sound very pleasant. I just thought it would be quicker and, therefore, better than suffering for a long time from something like cancer. Having seen people I love suffer, for months and months, from terminal cancer, I've come to believe strongly that we should all have a clear, legal right to end our lives, at any time, for basically any reason. Aside from people who are clearly temporarily depressed or crazy or whatever, all of us should be able to get a prescription for some pills we can take to end our lives when we are ready to die. I just can't imagine suffering for a long time, knowing that at the end I was just going to die anyway.


I agree with you that additional options for death should be available for those who might wish it

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4134 on: October 18, 2020, 07:43:50 AM »
Thanks for the HCWs' perspective on dying by covid. Guess I won't choose that way to die, assuming I get a choice. It doesn't sound very pleasant. I just thought it would be quicker and, therefore, better than suffering for a long time from something like cancer. Having seen people I love suffer, for months and months, from terminal cancer, I've come to believe strongly that we should all have a clear, legal right to end our lives, at any time, for basically any reason. Aside from people who are clearly temporarily depressed or crazy or whatever, all of us should be able to get a prescription for some pills we can take to end our lives when we are ready to die. I just can't imagine suffering for a long time, knowing that at the end I was just going to die anyway.


I agree with you that additional options for death should be available for those who might wish it

Seconded.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4135 on: October 18, 2020, 12:44:34 PM »
The following can both be true;

-2.8 million Americans die a year and we don’t give it much thought
-excess mortality for 25 straight weeks and counting is a huge fucking deal

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4136 on: October 18, 2020, 01:13:14 PM »
The following can both be true;

-2.8 million Americans die a year and we don’t give it much thought
-excess mortality for 25 straight weeks and counting is a huge fucking deal

Yep. I mean, 3,000 Americans died on 9/11 and we ended up with a completely overhauled airport security system.

Nearly 220,000 COVID-19 deaths since February of this year is apparently not a enough deal to convince some pseudo-patriots to strap little pieces of fabric on their faces when they go to public places.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4137 on: October 18, 2020, 01:26:12 PM »
Agreed, everyone should be willing to "strap little pieces of fabric on their faces" to help slow the spread of covid and benefit the community. Maybe, if Uncle Joe wins, we'll get to see how he and the Democrats do at dealing with the pandemic. I think having a calm, sane person as head of state will make a difference, hopefully. TBH, though, I feel a little uncomfortable with Joe's reluctance to answer with an unequivocal, "NO!" when he was asked at his town hall meeting, last Wednesday, whether he would make a Covid vaccine mandatory. To me, it's fucking crazy that someone who may become our president in just 3 months believes that a vaccine that hasn't even been completed or approved yet should be MANDATORY. He qualified his answer by saying that, yeah, it's not really possible to *force* Americans to get a vaccine, but that he would still like to make the vaccine mandatory. wtf?

former player

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4138 on: October 18, 2020, 01:59:37 PM »
Agreed, everyone should be willing to "strap little pieces of fabric on their faces" to help slow the spread of covid and benefit the community. Maybe, if Uncle Joe wins, we'll get to see how he and the Democrats do at dealing with the pandemic. I think having a calm, sane person as head of state will make a difference, hopefully. TBH, though, I feel a little uncomfortable with Joe's reluctance to answer with an unequivocal, "NO!" when he was asked at his town hall meeting, last Wednesday, whether he would make a Covid vaccine mandatory. To me, it's fucking crazy that someone who may become our president in just 3 months believes that a vaccine that hasn't even been completed or approved yet should be MANDATORY. He qualified his answer by saying that, yeah, it's not really possible to *force* Americans to get a vaccine, but that he would still like to make the vaccine mandatory. wtf?
I didn't see the town hall, but it's possible to make a law saying eg "you can only attend a concert with more than 100 other people if you've been vaccinated".  Or if you wanted to travel abroad you have to produce a vaccination certificate to the country you are travelling to.  Mandatory but not mandatory: you can avoid it by making different choices, but eventually your choice not to be vaccinated is more of a problem than being vaccinated.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4139 on: October 18, 2020, 03:05:42 PM »
Agreed, everyone should be willing to "strap little pieces of fabric on their faces" to help slow the spread of covid and benefit the community. Maybe, if Uncle Joe wins, we'll get to see how he and the Democrats do at dealing with the pandemic. I think having a calm, sane person as head of state will make a difference, hopefully. TBH, though, I feel a little uncomfortable with Joe's reluctance to answer with an unequivocal, "NO!" when he was asked at his town hall meeting, last Wednesday, whether he would make a Covid vaccine mandatory. To me, it's fucking crazy that someone who may become our president in just 3 months believes that a vaccine that hasn't even been completed or approved yet should be MANDATORY. He qualified his answer by saying that, yeah, it's not really possible to *force* Americans to get a vaccine, but that he would still like to make the vaccine mandatory. wtf?

What are you envisioning?  Jack booted feds kick down every person's door and forcefully administer the vaccine?  It's possible to prevent/ban unvaccinated folks from doing lots of stuff . . . but how would the mechanics of mandatory vaccination work?

It's important to remember that any vaccination we get before the end of next year is going to be tested much less than usual.  Chances of complications and problems are therefore likely going to be higher, maybe much higher.  I'm far and away from an antivaccine stance . . . but it seems to me that there are valid reasons to not get it (at least for a while after it's being introduced).

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4140 on: October 18, 2020, 03:13:13 PM »
Given the assumptions of how infectious covid-19 is there is no reason to vaccinate everyone. Bit over 60% should be sufficient provoided a vaccine is close to 100% efficient (which it is unlikely to be). For measels - the most contaigious virus known you need somwehere in the high 90s and that vaccine is 95% efficient after two doses. The famous R for measels is estimated at 12-18, meaning every person who has it infects 12-18 others.

Apparently the old adage “death and taxes” was once “death, taxes and measles” (sources on that admittedly scarce so might be a modern invention)

So anti-vaccers unlikely to spoil the party. The disease does not spread fast enough.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2020, 03:14:45 PM by habanero »

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4141 on: October 18, 2020, 03:16:15 PM »
Agreed, everyone should be willing to "strap little pieces of fabric on their faces" to help slow the spread of covid and benefit the community. Maybe, if Uncle Joe wins, we'll get to see how he and the Democrats do at dealing with the pandemic. I think having a calm, sane person as head of state will make a difference, hopefully. TBH, though, I feel a little uncomfortable with Joe's reluctance to answer with an unequivocal, "NO!" when he was asked at his town hall meeting, last Wednesday, whether he would make a Covid vaccine mandatory. To me, it's fucking crazy that someone who may become our president in just 3 months believes that a vaccine that hasn't even been completed or approved yet should be MANDATORY. He qualified his answer by saying that, yeah, it's not really possible to *force* Americans to get a vaccine, but that he would still like to make the vaccine mandatory. wtf?
I didn't see the town hall, but it's possible to make a law saying eg "you can only attend a concert with more than 100 other people if you've been vaccinated".  Or if you wanted to travel abroad you have to produce a vaccination certificate to the country you are travelling to.  Mandatory but not mandatory: you can avoid it by making different choices, but eventually your choice not to be vaccinated is more of a problem than being vaccinated.

Yeah, we don't have jackbooted soldiers showing up to drag people outside and stick needles in their arms. But generally, kids have to be vaccinated to attend public school, health workers have to be vaccinated against hepatitis viruses, etc., and many countries require travelers to have been vaccinated prior to entry. I could also see airlines, senior residential communities, and tertiary educational facilities deciding to require vaccination.

In other words, you can't be forced to vaccinate, but you may be self-selecting yourself out of various public settings. Again, same deal as refusing to wear a mask into a private business. Here in Michigan, that's now in violation of a public health department mandate (and OSHA, for employers/employees), and a business can legally refuse entry.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4142 on: October 18, 2020, 03:21:59 PM »
The following can both be true;

-2.8 million Americans die a year and we don’t give it much thought
-excess mortality for 25 straight weeks and counting is a huge fucking deal

Yep. I mean, 3,000 Americans died on 9/11 and we ended up with a completely overhauled airport security system.

Not to mention invaded a foreign country and maintained a significant military presence there for nearly 20 years now.

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4143 on: October 18, 2020, 04:30:46 PM »
Thanks for the HCWs' perspective on dying by covid. Guess I won't choose that way to die, assuming I get a choice. It doesn't sound very pleasant. I just thought it would be quicker and, therefore, better than suffering for a long time from something like cancer. Having seen people I love suffer, for months and months, from terminal cancer, I've come to believe strongly that we should all have a clear, legal right to end our lives, at any time, for basically any reason. Aside from people who are clearly temporarily depressed or crazy or whatever, all of us should be able to get a prescription for some pills we can take to end our lives when we are ready to die. I just can't imagine suffering for a long time, knowing that at the end I was just going to die anyway.


I agree with you that additional options for death should be available for those who might wish it

Seconded.

Save your pennies, maybe you can immigrate to Ontario, Canada.   (Medical assistance in dying is available here.)

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4144 on: October 18, 2020, 06:45:48 PM »
Thanks for the HCWs' perspective on dying by covid. Guess I won't choose that way to die, assuming I get a choice. It doesn't sound very pleasant. I just thought it would be quicker and, therefore, better than suffering for a long time from something like cancer. Having seen people I love suffer, for months and months, from terminal cancer, I've come to believe strongly that we should all have a clear, legal right to end our lives, at any time, for basically any reason. Aside from people who are clearly temporarily depressed or crazy or whatever, all of us should be able to get a prescription for some pills we can take to end our lives when we are ready to die. I just can't imagine suffering for a long time, knowing that at the end I was just going to die anyway.


I agree with you that additional options for death should be available for those who might wish it

Seconded.

Save your pennies, maybe you can immigrate to Ontario, Canada.   (Medical assistance in dying is available here.)

It's been a long time since I last visited Ontario, but I have good memories of time spent there, as a kid. Last summer, we really enjoyed a short visit to Vancouver, B.C. Definitely looking forward to visiting Canada again, after covid ends. Not sure how easy it would be for us as retirees to move there permanently, though. The exchange rate looks pretty good now...

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4145 on: October 18, 2020, 07:07:37 PM »
As far as mandatory vaccines goes, I just felt like it was a dumb move for Biden to say out loud, in public that he would like to make a covid vaccine mandatory. Obviously, it's possible for schools, airlines, employers, etc., to make school attendance, employment or a plane ticket dependent upon proof of vaccination. That doesn't mean, though, that it would be mandatory. Nobody has to fly on a plane, work for any particular employer or send their kids to a public school. Those are all choices people get to make. Maybe it's just semantics, but I was pretty frustrated by Biden's choice of words. Once a vaccine seems relatively safe and effective, my family and I are definitely planning on getting it. We're not anti-vaxxers, by any stretch of the imagination. Our daughter has all of the vaccines recommended by her pediatrician, and when we traveled around the world for 2 years, we got all the shots recommended by the CDC for each of the countries we visited. We have American friends, though, who are big time anti-vaxxers. They homeschool their kids, so they don't have to get them vaccinated. I think it's dumb, but that's their choice. I don't think they should be forced to do anything. I think our government needs to do a better job of educating the public and persuading them to voluntarily get vaccinated. For months on social media, I've been trying to reassure "vaccine skeptics," as some of our anti-vaxx friends like to call themselves, that "there's not a chance in hell that any US government will try to make a covid vaccine mandatory. It's not going to happen. Stop worrying!" And then that dumb ass Biden gets up on the stage and says to the whole world that he would like to make a covid vaccine mandatory. smdh. :)

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4146 on: October 18, 2020, 07:41:41 PM »
I don't see why a vaccine shouldn't be mandatory (Subject to medical issues, both general to the larger population and confined to any given individual).

if people don't want to get the vaccination they shouldn't be thrown in jail, but I would advocate stopping payment of any and all medical/welfare/social security benefits till they do - again, subject to medical exemptions.

Maybe it's bad "optics" but it's time we stopped giving any thought to the views of the anti-vaxxer crowd. See how tough they are when they can no longer suck from the state's teat.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4147 on: October 18, 2020, 08:03:20 PM »
I don't see why a vaccine shouldn't be mandatory (Subject to medical issues, both general to the larger population and confined to any given individual).

if people don't want to get the vaccination they shouldn't be thrown in jail, but I would advocate stopping payment of any and all medical/welfare/social security benefits till they do - again, subject to medical exemptions.

Maybe it's bad "optics" but it's time we stopped giving any thought to the views of the anti-vaxxer crowd. See how tough they are when they can no longer suck from the state's teat.

Coming from Australia, I'm not surprised you think that, Bloop. I also know some Americans who would agree with you, wholeheartedly. I've just always preferred to use words to persuade people to do things I want them to do, rather than brute force. I guess you're not actually advocating *force*, but your approach seems a bit more forceful than I'd be comfortable with.

alsoknownasDean

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4148 on: October 18, 2020, 08:40:09 PM »
I don't see why a vaccine shouldn't be mandatory (Subject to medical issues, both general to the larger population and confined to any given individual).

if people don't want to get the vaccination they shouldn't be thrown in jail, but I would advocate stopping payment of any and all medical/welfare/social security benefits till they do - again, subject to medical exemptions.

Maybe it's bad "optics" but it's time we stopped giving any thought to the views of the anti-vaxxer crowd. See how tough they are when they can no longer suck from the state's teat.

My view is more along the lines of 'no vaccination, no passport' or 'no vaccination, mandatory quarantine upon return from any other country'. Otherwise there'll be continual re-introduction of any overseas-acquired viruses (and not just covid) into the community.

That way one can refuse the vaccination if they really want, provided they accept the travel limitations.

The 5km limit has now been increased to 25km after almost a week of days of new case numbers in single figures, along with a few other eased restrictions. Retail/hospitality is set to reopen from the 2nd of November, potentially earlier. I can finally get a haircut, I haven't had one of those since June. I drove past the hairdressers today and there was about four people queued out the front.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2020, 08:45:14 PM by alsoknownasDean »

middo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4149 on: October 18, 2020, 10:29:28 PM »
I don't see why a vaccine shouldn't be mandatory (Subject to medical issues, both general to the larger population and confined to any given individual).

if people don't want to get the vaccination they shouldn't be thrown in jail, but I would advocate stopping payment of any and all medical/welfare/social security benefits till they do - again, subject to medical exemptions.

Maybe it's bad "optics" but it's time we stopped giving any thought to the views of the anti-vaxxer crowd. See how tough they are when they can no longer suck from the state's teat.

So the stick comes out for the poor, but the wealthy can do as they please?  I think that the speed at which any vaccine has been produced will cause concern among many.  I would be willing to get a vaccine if it has been through the proper clinical trials, but not if it is fast-tracked without the usual safeguards.

As a school teacher, there is no "force" used to get me to get a flu vaccine every year.  But our school makes sure it is free, and available at the school on at least two days, usually in May.  Almost 100% of the staff get it.  If the same sort of approach is used with a covid vaccine, easy to get, free and with known health benefits, I suspect 70 - 80% of the Australian population would get it.