Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 248216 times)

deborah

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3100 on: July 15, 2020, 12:23:42 AM »
It is noteworthy that it's been reported today that in Australia we have managed to have only 15% of people admitted to the ICU with Covid19 die. The UK and China recorded 40% and 44%, while in the USA it's about 70%. If we can all get the death rate down significantly, the debate changes somewhat.
70% of US ICU patients die? Do you have a source for that? The figure seems absurdly high.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/best-doctors-and-nurses-australia-leads-world-in-covid-19-icu-survival-rates-20200714-p55byq.html - see the graph.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3101 on: July 15, 2020, 12:36:55 AM »
It is noteworthy that it's been reported today that in Australia we have managed to have only 15% of people admitted to the ICU with Covid19 die. The UK and China recorded 40% and 44%, while in the USA it's about 70%. If we can all get the death rate down significantly, the debate changes somewhat.
70% of US ICU patients die? Do you have a source for that? The figure seems absurdly high.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/best-doctors-and-nurses-australia-leads-world-in-covid-19-icu-survival-rates-20200714-p55byq.html - see the graph.
Example of how dumb the media is. 471 ICU intakes in the US? That's probably not a representative sample given that tens-hundreds of thousands of ICU admissions have occurred in the US since the start of the epidemic. Second example: 671 ICU cases in Italy...
Also: "figures for China, the US and Italy are not national figures but the best available from published local studies."
What local studies? I guess the disclaimers are all in the fine print but it seems disingenuous to draw such conclusions off of tiny samples where the potential sampling bias is unclear.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3102 on: July 15, 2020, 01:17:35 AM »
This says 64.3% survival in the US now, up from under 20%: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/more-covid-19-patients-are-surviving-ventilators-in-the-icu/2020/07/03/2e3c3534-bbca-11ea-8cf5-9c1b8d7f84c6_story.html

This has 74% survival in Italy. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/04/experts-italy-asia-share-covid-19-icu-experience-warnings

And we're at 85%.

Your medical system isn't as good as ours to begin with, and past a certain level of numbers, any system gets overwhelmed and people who could have survived end up dying. Our hospitals were dealing with under 100 covid patients in ICU nationally, the US Italy got that many at one hospital. Quality begins lower, and declines with quantity.

Those are the unfortunate facts of the matter.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3103 on: July 15, 2020, 01:34:26 AM »
This says 64.3% survival in the US now, up from under 20%: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/more-covid-19-patients-are-surviving-ventilators-in-the-icu/2020/07/03/2e3c3534-bbca-11ea-8cf5-9c1b8d7f84c6_story.html

This has 74% survival in Italy. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/04/experts-italy-asia-share-covid-19-icu-experience-warnings

And we're at 85%.

Your medical system isn't as good as ours to begin with, and past a certain level of numbers, any system gets overwhelmed and people who could have survived end up dying. Our hospitals were dealing with under 100 covid patients in ICU nationally, the US Italy got that many at one hospital. Quality begins lower, and declines with quantity.

Those are the unfortunate facts of the matter.
You might be conflating ICU with invasive ventilator use with mere ICU admissions. The 85% in deborah's linked article is over all ICU admissions, while the survival rate with invasive mechanical ventilation is stated to be 78%. There is also a potential difference in case severity that results in ICU admission between countries. A lower standard for criticality for admission to the ICU will result in higher ICU survival rates so it's not easy to interpret these numbers. Also, different criteria for mechanical ventilation will also result in differences in that metric. You would probably have to control for specific clinical symptom severity to actually measure the difference in outcomes as a function of disease severity and treatment regimen. Finally, you would have to control for the underlying health of those afflicted. In the US, many of the earlier severe cases clustered among very elderly assisted care residents as a result of the NY State government's interesting policies on that front.

deborah

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3104 on: July 15, 2020, 01:50:00 AM »
Actually, there are other articles that say that some ICUs in some hospitals in the US did have that rate. For instance, this article gives some very sobering stats https://ccforum.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13054-020-03006-1/tables/1 from some individual hospitals. I agree that itís probably not representative, but I was looking at it from the perspective that hospitals are now understanding better how to treat patients, and that death tolls are actually reducing NOT because the virus is getting less virulent, but because our medical professionals have managed to understand it better, and to reduce the deaths with better treatments.

former player

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3105 on: July 15, 2020, 02:37:56 AM »

Economists do.  Y'all are apparently calculating monetary value using the human capital approach (a rather old fashioned method which only measures the value of production lost) rather than the individual/social willingness-to-pay approach which is more common these days.

I've been wondering for the past few weeks whether someone was going to bring this up.  This has always struck me as completely hypocritical that on a early retirement website - a concept which wouldn't exist if not for ideals underpinning willingness-to-pay - that there are a number of posters who, in this one very specific instance, are unwilling to consider any alternative to a human capital model.

Can you elaborate on this? Willingness to pay in a private goods / property context is different, in my eyes, from allocation of scarce public resources. For example I might well be willing to pay $100k for a sports car, or convert that money into time in order to fund an early retirement, because that is what I want for myself. It would be stupid for public money to be spent on either purchase, because it's not 'for the greater good'. But that doesn't mean it's hypocritical to advocate that citizens each have the freedom to do what they like with their own money versus the public purse.

Right. But QALY only really works for medical decisions.  You use a different calculation for road traffic safety costs.  (Which apparently Bloop for one doesn't understand as he keeps trying to bring road safety into a conversation on health costs.)

No, I don't follow your reasoning. Traffic safety may well be funded on a "how much can we get funding for" basis. But it should follow the same assessment of relative cost vs relative reward. As LightTripper suggested, when considering things like road upgrades, speed limit changes, traffic calming devices etc, the most fair outcomes are gotten when we prioritise changes that will save a lot of lives. And remember that in choosing to set a speed limit at, say, 80km/h instead of 40km/h, we are accepting a certain annual loss of life for mere convenience.

You know what? I started an explanation but 1) it will only give you the opportunity to make more illogical arguments and 2) life's too short and I've other things to get done today.

Try Google.

(Also, in relation to road traffic safety, stop making the amateur's mistake of looking only at what remains to be done and the cost of that as against what has already been done and the cumulative costs of that.  Thanks.)

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3106 on: July 15, 2020, 03:35:38 AM »
Abe: does it make a difference to ICU stats that the preferred treatment these days seems to be CPAP equivalent rather than ventilators, with the result that more people might be treated outside an ICU than would have been thought appropriate earlier on in the pandemic?  If so then stats on ICU usage might be a less consistent marker over time.  Would percentage of hospital deaths outside ICU be a marker for this?  Although I guess as treatments get better/affected populations get younger that also is subject to change.

Disclaimer: not a statistician.

Itís true that more people are managed out of the ICU with non-invasive ventilation, but again that shows the number of very sick people is high since ICUs are being reserved for unstable patients needing ventilation. If anything, ICU admissions probably more accurately reflect severely ill people now than earlier in the pandemic, when a lot of people were admitted for monitoring but werenít intubated. Hope that answers your question!

This also is related to the question of icu mortality. If one only admits the sickest patients, requiring ventilation, then the survival will be lower than a situation where people arenít intubated but being monitored for risk of intubation. That latter scenario will be in a relatively resource-rich environment. Iíd rather have a patient on cpap or high flow in the ICU ready for intubation if needed than doing it on the floor and wheeling him over while we look for a icu room.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2020, 03:41:41 AM by Abe »

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3107 on: July 15, 2020, 06:30:04 AM »
This isnít great (and yes, I know, itís one doctor at one hospital): Miami Hospital ICU Doctor: New Influx Of Patients Is Younger Than Before

Quote
That's one big change. Much younger patients, pretty much healthy. Not really major past medical history.

We are not seeing that much obesity. I know there are some reports about obesity, but at least in the ICU, I would guess maybe 20% of patients are obese. Most of them are pretty young and healthy patients.

And also they get sicker than the previous [wave]. Mortality has not been a major issue because they are younger patients. But I think as the days go on, we might also see a change in mortality.

ender

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3108 on: July 15, 2020, 07:34:28 AM »
https://www.smh.com.au/national/best-doctors-and-nurses-australia-leads-world-in-covid-19-icu-survival-rates-20200714-p55byq.html - see the graph.

I'm a little confused why this article attempts to compare Australia/USA. USA has massively more cases than Australia (3.5M vs 10k according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ so about 350x as many cases) but they use barely over 2x the ICU data they are using...

It seems pretty obvious to me that some of their datasets are woefully insufficient to draw the conclusions they are doing so.

While it's certainly possible that Australia is doing considerably better than the USA for ICU survival, it's hard for me to be remotely confident in that comparison from their data set (same with comparing against Italy/China). Comparing against the UK seems more reasonable since the cases/ICU ratio is closer (UK has had about 30x as many cases as Australia and their numbers are around 50x for tracked ICU cases so at least the same ballpark).

But unless the ICU admittance rate in Australia is around 175x what it is in the USA, it seems like a bit of a silly comparison.

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3109 on: July 15, 2020, 09:34:49 AM »
Sweden has an IC survival rate of a bit over 70%. If you remove the 80+ age group it is over 80%.

In general, patients > 80 years are not sent to the ICU as it is quite often not deemed worthwile but they receive care in the care home they live in. Same story in Norway, albeit with much fewer cases. More than half the deaths occur outside the hospital (read: in care homes) both in Norway and Sweden.


boy_bye

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3110 on: July 15, 2020, 12:14:52 PM »
Trump didn't have the level of control over the CDC he needed to sufficiently hide the problem, so this step makes a lot of sense.  CDC wasn't staying on brand.

I don't know if it would be possible to design a WORSE "leader" to get the US through this. It's so frustrating! There are a lot of smart and moral people here! We could be doing so much better!

JGS1980

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3111 on: July 15, 2020, 12:32:11 PM »
Trump didn't have the level of control over the CDC he needed to sufficiently hide the problem, so this step makes a lot of sense.  CDC wasn't staying on brand.

I don't know if it would be possible to design a WORSE "leader" to get the US through this. It's so frustrating! There are a lot of smart and moral people here! We could be doing so much better!

Alas, the inherent weakness of democracy as a system of government. I assure you I personally could not get elected dog-catcher...

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3112 on: July 15, 2020, 02:24:28 PM »

New Data on T Cells and the Coronavirus

Interesting takeaways:

- there are people who have both CD4+ and CD8+ T cells that recognize protein antigens from the new coronavirus even though they have never been exposed to SARS, MERS, or the new virus

- A new paper from Nature confirms that convalescent patients from the current epidemic show T-cell responses (mostly CD4+ but some CD8+ as well) to various epitopes of the N (nucleocapsid) protein. Turning to patients who had caught SARS back in 2003 and recovered, it is already known (and worried about) that their antibody responses faded within two or three years. But this paper shows that these patients still have (17 years later!) a robust T-cell response to the original SARS coronavirusís N protein, which extends an earlier report of such responses going out to 11 years.

- The above point may indicate that T-cell driven immunity is perhaps the way to reconcile the apparent paradox between antibody responses that seem to be dropping week by week in convalescent patients but few (if any) reliable reports of actual re-infection.

- There is likely past zoonotic coronavirus transmission in humans, unknown viruses that apparently did not lead to serious disease, which have provided some people with a level of T-cell based protection to the current pandemic.


boy_bye

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3113 on: July 15, 2020, 07:23:46 PM »
Trump didn't have the level of control over the CDC he needed to sufficiently hide the problem, so this step makes a lot of sense.  CDC wasn't staying on brand.

I don't know if it would be possible to design a WORSE "leader" to get the US through this. It's so frustrating! There are a lot of smart and moral people here! We could be doing so much better!

Alas, the inherent weakness of democracy as a system of government. I assure you I personally could not get elected dog-catcher...

Eh, I wouldn't say "democracy" is the major reason we ended up with this president but that's a topic for another thread.

deborah

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3114 on: July 15, 2020, 07:53:01 PM »
Trump didn't have the level of control over the CDC he needed to sufficiently hide the problem, so this step makes a lot of sense.  CDC wasn't staying on brand.

I don't know if it would be possible to design a WORSE "leader" to get the US through this. It's so frustrating! There are a lot of smart and moral people here! We could be doing so much better!

Alas, the inherent weakness of democracy as a system of government. I assure you I personally could not get elected dog-catcher...

Eh, I wouldn't say "democracy" is the major reason we ended up with this president but that's a topic for another thread.
The democracies of the world are ranked here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index - most have done well with covid19.

Mr. Green

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3115 on: July 15, 2020, 08:20:24 PM »

New Data on T Cells and the Coronavirus

Interesting takeaways:

- there are people who have both CD4+ and CD8+ T cells that recognize protein antigens from the new coronavirus even though they have never been exposed to SARS, MERS, or the new virus

- A new paper from Nature confirms that convalescent patients from the current epidemic show T-cell responses (mostly CD4+ but some CD8+ as well) to various epitopes of the N (nucleocapsid) protein. Turning to patients who had caught SARS back in 2003 and recovered, it is already known (and worried about) that their antibody responses faded within two or three years. But this paper shows that these patients still have (17 years later!) a robust T-cell response to the original SARS coronavirusís N protein, which extends an earlier report of such responses going out to 11 years.

- The above point may indicate that T-cell driven immunity is perhaps the way to reconcile the apparent paradox between antibody responses that seem to be dropping week by week in convalescent patients but few (if any) reliable reports of actual re-infection.

- There is likely past zoonotic coronavirus transmission in humans, unknown viruses that apparently did not lead to serious disease, which have provided some people with a level of T-cell based protection to the current pandemic.
That is interesting. One of the theories on the origin of this coronavirus is that it has been circulating in humans for some time in previously unharmful form before mutating into a harmful one. The thought was it helped explain why it's just so dang good at attaching to ACE2 receptors, which some scientists believe is an "evolved" state.

Gremlin

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3116 on: July 15, 2020, 08:47:33 PM »

Economists do.  Y'all are apparently calculating monetary value using the human capital approach (a rather old fashioned method which only measures the value of production lost) rather than the individual/social willingness-to-pay approach which is more common these days.

I've been wondering for the past few weeks whether someone was going to bring this up.  This has always struck me as completely hypocritical that on a early retirement website - a concept which wouldn't exist if not for ideals underpinning willingness-to-pay - that there are a number of posters who, in this one very specific instance, are unwilling to consider any alternative to a human capital model.

Can you elaborate on this? Willingness to pay in a private goods / property context is different, in my eyes, from allocation of scarce public resources. For example I might well be willing to pay $100k for a sports car, or convert that money into time in order to fund an early retirement, because that is what I want for myself. It would be stupid for public money to be spent on either purchase, because it's not 'for the greater good'. But that doesn't mean it's hypocritical to advocate that citizens each have the freedom to do what they like with their own money versus the public purse.

Because willingness to pay isn't simply a financial concept.  It could also mean a willingness to pay a social price by an individual. In the post below, you seem to very strongly advocate that everyone should be able to self-assess their own willingness to pay a social cost being asked.


Because the risk (economic, health or otherwise) to individuals, or certain groups, can be higher/lower than for the general population, "learning to live with" the disease can mean different things for different people. Some groups might be subject to more or less onerous conditions. There might not be a consensus on which groups or which conditions those might be. And that's okay. Everyone probably has to do something to help the community, but that "something" is going to vary in intensity and duration.

You're okay with not having a consensus on willingness to pay a social price.  For the sake of example, that implies it's okay for a bunch of Melbourne security guards not being willing to pay a social price that others, including yourself, would expect.  Except your more recent posts suggest you're not.  Human (social) capital wins out in your more recent posts because someone else has made a (social) willingness to pay decision that disadvantages you.

But even if we limit it to simply a financial concept, it still strikes me as hypocritical.  The human capital model is one predicated, not on the value of your future years lived, but actually on QALY as a proxy for your future human capital.  There is even a version of QALY that explicitly incorporates this - it projects forward only to the conclusion of the individual's working life and then turns negative.  In other words, you only have a positive value under this model up to the point that you retire.  If you believe this stuff, then logically it makes sense - your only value to society is the work you do, you may have assets but society is indifferent to whether it's you or your beneficiaries who utilise those assets.  I'll leave it to you to think through why early retirement as a concept is inconsistent with this kind of mantra.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3117 on: July 15, 2020, 10:30:52 PM »
Yes, I'm okay with not having a consensus on willingness to pay a social price, but that's why governments are elected - to force a consensus where required. I think it's easy to say in hindsight that the government should have required greater restrictions on those security guards' ability to travel or socialise with anyone outside their immediate families. There was an Age article about a family of 17 people who ALL got the coronavirus!! Unless they live 17 under the same roof, there's a real failure there of enforcement. Not that I'm criticising the government because it may have been difficult to foresee.

As for human/social capital, the reason I prefer QALY is because when resources are limited, you try to maximise the life-years you can save. It's not a concept that's tied to (economic) "productive" life years in my book [otherwise we wouldn't pay retiree pensions since by definition those people have reduced  economically productivity], but rather tied to life years where the person can experience a decent quality of life. So it's about using financial resources to shore up present/future non-financial quality of life.

There's a huge overlap, because future human capital is also likely to be future productive capital. But it's the former not the latter that drives the QALY assessment.

And because I ascribe to the former, then it doesn't change whether or not someone chooses or doesn't choose to retire.

JGS1980

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3118 on: July 16, 2020, 08:54:56 AM »
Back to the topic:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/second-coronavirus-death-surge/614122/

This was a good article on what we can expect in the next 4-12 weeks after the surge in cases in the South and the West with very little mitigation efforts by those individual states.


boy_bye

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3119 on: July 16, 2020, 10:18:50 AM »
Trump didn't have the level of control over the CDC he needed to sufficiently hide the problem, so this step makes a lot of sense.  CDC wasn't staying on brand.

I don't know if it would be possible to design a WORSE "leader" to get the US through this. It's so frustrating! There are a lot of smart and moral people here! We could be doing so much better!

Alas, the inherent weakness of democracy as a system of government. I assure you I personally could not get elected dog-catcher...

Eh, I wouldn't say "democracy" is the major reason we ended up with this president but that's a topic for another thread.
The democracies of the world are ranked here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index - most have done well with covid19.

True. The point I was trying to make is a bit different. The fact that 2 out of three of the presidents the US has had in the 21st century did not win the popular vote does not really scream "democracy" to me. In my view, we are possibly further down the slope of flawed democracy>authoritarianism than what is reflected in this Wikipedia ranking. 

Rosy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3120 on: July 16, 2020, 10:33:28 AM »
This isnít great (and yes, I know, itís one doctor at one hospital): Miami Hospital ICU Doctor: New Influx Of Patients Is Younger Than Before

Quote
That's one big change. Much younger patients, pretty much healthy. Not really major past medical history.

We are not seeing that much obesity. I know there are some reports about obesity, but at least in the ICU, I would guess maybe 20% of patients are obese. Most of them are pretty young and healthy patients.

And also they get sicker than the previous [wave]. Mortality has not been a major issue because they are younger patients. But I think as the days go on, we might also see a change in mortality.

That is exactly what the ICU doctor in Sarasota, Florida said about the state of things at his hospital.

He also said he never thought he'd have three young critically ill patients and be forced to choose only one of them for treatment due to lack of/shortage of equipment and shortage of meds.
He was still reeling from seeing a 20-year-old die from COVID and appealed to the young to wear masks and take this seriously. 
(Live interview on TV about 4-5 days ago) 

It is encouraging to see that perhaps there will be considerably less death while it rages among the younger crowd and we have better treatments, but I am also wondering about the rise in deaths at home.
Is that the older population scared and refusing to go to the hospital where they fear to die alone in a hallway?
Florida is not reporting pneumonia or stroke or heart attacks as Covid deaths only on the list of contributing factors. How accurately does that reflect our real death toll? 

Florida never flattened the curve enough and then rushed to re-open with nowhere near the criteria recommended for re-opening.
A delusional governor bent on denying the crisis all around him from the total failure of our states unemployment system to handling the pandemic.
It borders on criminal neglect of duty.

Long recoveries are just one more economic issue in the years to come for everyone around the world recovering from Covid.
There will be lasting impact.

When did we become so ignorant and willing to tolerate dysfunctional, disorganized-mismanaged federal and state government to the degree that it has become harmful to us as a nation?
WTH does this outcome serve well?

Sorry guys for ranting but I just got off the phone with a friend in Germany - they currently have 3 cases in her area (Hesse-state) - compared to over 30,000 cases in my area (my county and the adjacent county are relatively comparable to the state of Hesse at least imho).

It is mindboggling to me. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
The state of Florida pop 21.48 millon has over 300,000 cases compared to the country of Germany pop 83.02 million which has over 200,000 cases

You can spin this any way you want but there is no denying that a functional, centralized government with a well established healthcare system is better equipped to deal with a pandemic of global proportions.
Despite Germany taking in millions of refugees and despite its population density.
What mattered were the political will to work together and committed leadership that listened to their scientists and acted upon that data.

It was what state governor Cuomo achieved in NY - kudos to him for working out the kinks on ground zero. It wasn't perfect because he was flying blind but for people to come in after the fact, after we know more about the virus to criticize him is beyond the pale. They now have a system they can work with when the second wave rolls around and time to prepare for that second wave.

Gov DeSantis in Florida had plenty of time and opportunity to do an even better job ... instead, he keeps on failing to do his job.
Worse, what it means to us is that we will have little opportunity if any to prepare for a second wave in fall/winter.   

Until the US figures out that divided we fall we will be in for one hell of a ride.

Rosy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3121 on: July 16, 2020, 11:07:40 AM »
Back to the topic:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/second-coronavirus-death-surge/614122/

This was a good article on what we can expect in the next 4-12 weeks after the surge in cases in the South and the West with very little mitigation efforts by those individual states.

@JGS1980 - indeed an excellent if sobering article. Thx for sharing it.
Let us hope it will never come to such extreme death rates - it is all just projections.
Projections can be changed by taking action.
From the article:
Quote
By the absolute or per capita numbers, the U.S. stands out as nearly the only country besides Iran that had a large spring outbreak, began to suppress the virus, and then simply let the virus come back.
No other country in the world has attempted what the U.S. appears to be stumbling into.

I think that is putting it mildly. All actions or inaction have consequences - we chose this path as a country.
Now we need to deal with the consequences and hopefully take different actions in the future.

The newest move to have hospitals stop reporting to the CDC and report to Washington instead is disturbing in its implications...
Blackballing Fauci is untenable...
Florida is not attempting to flatten the curve, our governor said we stabilized:).
Instead it appears Florida will let the virus run rampant - maybe in the hopes this virus will burn itself out.
Florida - how can you open schools and expose teachers and staff?

Oh well - we shall see what happens in the next four weeks.
Right now I can't even imagine what might happen by or in November.

Just Joe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3122 on: July 16, 2020, 11:11:55 AM »
I can't look at the politicians rushing our nation towards disaster without thinking that there is likely a large group of their supporters rubbing their hands in greedy delight at all the ways the can make money from the misery of others.

jrhampt

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3123 on: July 16, 2020, 11:16:47 AM »
We had a whole group of politicians running in recent years on the platform that government is basically stupid and incompetent and that you want very little of it (Tea Party).  Seems that was self-fulfilling.

LightTripper

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3124 on: July 16, 2020, 04:58:19 PM »
Trump didn't have the level of control over the CDC he needed to sufficiently hide the problem, so this step makes a lot of sense.  CDC wasn't staying on brand.

I don't know if it would be possible to design a WORSE "leader" to get the US through this. It's so frustrating! There are a lot of smart and moral people here! We could be doing so much better!

We could lend you BoJo if you wanna try and see if you can go even lower??

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3125 on: July 16, 2020, 05:02:31 PM »
Trump didn't have the level of control over the CDC he needed to sufficiently hide the problem, so this step makes a lot of sense.  CDC wasn't staying on brand.

I don't know if it would be possible to design a WORSE "leader" to get the US through this. It's so frustrating! There are a lot of smart and moral people here! We could be doing so much better!

We could lend you BoJo if you wanna try and see if you can go even lower??

I donít think thatís possible. BoJo has shown occasional glimmers of common sense and humanity. Pretty sure youíd need a fellow American to get to the Trump level of idiocy and depravity. Rush Limbaugh or Alex Jones would be good places to start.

PDXTabs

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3126 on: July 16, 2020, 07:15:01 PM »
I donít think thatís possible. BoJo has shown occasional glimmers of common sense and humanity.

Yup, as a US/UK dual national I'm sad about both countries, but Trump makes BoJo look smart and reasonable. Also, I think being admitted to the ICU helped him wise up a bit.

OtherJen

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dougules

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lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3129 on: July 17, 2020, 04:02:39 PM »
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/we-ll-see-him-court-atlanta-mayor-questions-georgia-gov-n1234141

https://www.al.com/news/2020/07/gov-ivey-covid-update-today-press-conference-planned-for-11-am-watch-live.html

The world has turned on its head when the governor of Alabama has more sense than the governor of Georgia.
Years ago, on my work map, I scratched out the name "Georgia" and wrote in "North Florida". I guess I was just ahead of the times... (I also renamed "South Dakota" as "Good Dakota" to distinguish it from ND)

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3130 on: July 17, 2020, 04:10:51 PM »
So we've given up trying to flatten the curve this time, huh?

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3131 on: July 17, 2020, 04:23:21 PM »
So we've given up trying to flatten the curve this time, huh?

Well  if you're not willing to perform simple common sense remedies like injecting bleach or sticking UV bulbs up your ass, what do you expect?

ender

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3132 on: July 17, 2020, 05:25:53 PM »
So we've given up trying to flatten the curve this time, huh?

Well  if you're not willing to perform simple common sense remedies like injecting bleach or sticking UV bulbs up your ass, what do you expect?

If you inject enough bleach you definitely won't die of covid.

PDXTabs

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3133 on: July 17, 2020, 05:57:11 PM »
So we've given up trying to flatten the curve this time, huh?

Technically anything less than uncontrolled exponential growth is a "flatter" curve than you would have had.

 But yea, I'm glad to be in Oregon right now.

dougules

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3134 on: July 18, 2020, 12:55:36 PM »
So we've given up trying to flatten the curve this time, huh?

Technically anything less than uncontrolled exponential growth is a "flatter" curve than you would have had.

 But yea, I'm glad to be in Oregon right now.

Usually Oregon is way more functional than the rest of the US, but Oregon's not exactly flattening the curve right now either.  Of course there's only so much you can do if neighboring states aren't managing things well and the president is urging conservative Oregonians to act like it's just a bad cold. 

Rosy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3135 on: July 18, 2020, 06:37:14 PM »
Here we go again: Reuters: Pandemic-hit Arizona, Texas counties order coolers, refrigerated trucks for bodies

Florida - here we go
Several hospitals in our area, Tampa Bay, just ordered refrigerated trucks for their dead - the other hospitals stated they have lined up a source.
One in 75 people in my county is infected.
The adjacent county where Mr. R works - one in 64 people are now infected.

PDXTabs

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3136 on: July 18, 2020, 07:24:02 PM »
Usually Oregon is way more functional than the rest of the US, but Oregon's not exactly flattening the curve right now either.  Of course there's only so much you can do if neighboring states aren't managing things well and the president is urging conservative Oregonians to act like it's just a bad cold.

Everything is relative. If it were up to me we would have gone to WA Phase 2 (less permissive than OR phase 1) and held there for a good long time. But still, relative to many states, OR is alright. For example, OR did not make this list.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3137 on: July 19, 2020, 04:17:35 AM »
Our state government estimated that 80% of our second wave of cases were linked to work and specifically casual workers in health/aged care who worked (often at various employers) while displaying symptoms.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3138 on: July 19, 2020, 09:35:03 AM »
Suspected overdoses nationally jumped 18 percent in March, 29 percent in April and 42 percent in May, data from ambulance teams, hospitals and police shows.

Browsing through a county report released by coroners near Detroit it was depressing to see many deaths listed as "Overdose / Covid-19".
« Last Edit: July 19, 2020, 09:38:43 AM by HBFIRE »

dougules

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3139 on: July 19, 2020, 11:05:59 AM »
Suspected overdoses nationally jumped 18 percent in March, 29 percent in April and 42 percent in May, data from ambulance teams, hospitals and police shows.

Browsing through a county report released by coroners near Detroit it was depressing to see many deaths listed as "Overdose / Covid-19".

Yes, we half-assed it, and now we're getting the worst of both worlds.

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3140 on: July 19, 2020, 11:53:15 AM »
From their primary data they report a 20% increase, which looks like an extra ~400 deaths from overdoses since January (mean 800/week to now 900/week)? This is only in six states at highest risk, so not sure how that translates to the country as a whole. Weíre really bad at healthcare in general. Now itís going to be worse.
« Last Edit: July 19, 2020, 11:55:26 AM by Abe »

MayDay

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3141 on: July 19, 2020, 12:07:06 PM »
Suspected overdoses nationally jumped 18 percent in March, 29 percent in April and 42 percent in May, data from ambulance teams, hospitals and police shows.

Browsing through a county report released by coroners near Detroit it was depressing to see many deaths listed as "Overdose / Covid-19".

What does this mean? That they can't tell which it was?

Kris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3142 on: July 19, 2020, 12:39:16 PM »
Here we go again: Reuters: Pandemic-hit Arizona, Texas counties order coolers, refrigerated trucks for bodies

Florida - here we go
Several hospitals in our area, Tampa Bay, just ordered refrigerated trucks for their dead - the other hospitals stated they have lined up a source.
One in 75 people in my county is infected.
The adjacent county where Mr. R works - one in 64 people are now infected.

The hell of it is, the ones refusing to wear masks will be the reason why we end up closing down again. And they will be the ones bitching the most about the re-closing that they are responsible for.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3143 on: July 19, 2020, 01:36:29 PM »

What does this mean? That they can't tell which it was?

As I understand it, any person with covid-19 at time of death, that has to be included on the death certificate regardless of cause.  I don't think this is necessarily a bad thing, but we should at least categorize these deaths separately.

DadJokes

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3144 on: July 19, 2020, 03:01:11 PM »
Welp, looks like the curve wonít be flattening anytime soon: https://twitter.com/joshbreslowwkrn/status/1284591893775634436?s=21

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3145 on: July 19, 2020, 03:12:01 PM »
God fucking damn it

Kris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3146 on: July 19, 2020, 03:42:07 PM »
Welp, looks like the curve wonít be flattening anytime soon: https://twitter.com/joshbreslowwkrn/status/1284591893775634436?s=21

One of the replies mentioned the term #spreadnecks

(Laughs in bitter)

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3147 on: July 19, 2020, 06:37:21 PM »
What does this mean? That they can't tell which it was?
If you get drunk and stumble onto a road in front of a truck, what's the cause of death: drunkenness, or vehicle accident?

If you have painful cancer and take so many opiates for pain relief that you overdose and die, what's the cause of death, cancer or opiate overdose?

If you have AIDS and multiple cancers pop up in your body, what's the cause of death, AIDS or cancer?

If you have chronic asthma and get a chest infection which 99.9% of people survive, but only 50% of asthmatics survive, what's the cause of death, asthma or the infection?

Caesar was stabbed 27 times - whose was the killing blow?

Death is part of life, and life is sometimes complicated.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3148 on: July 19, 2020, 07:11:53 PM »
Welp, looks like the curve wonít be flattening anytime soon: https://twitter.com/joshbreslowwkrn/status/1284591893775634436?s=21

One of the replies mentioned the term #spreadnecks

(Laughs in bitter)
All Gas No Brakes is my favorite reporter right now. If one listens to what Americans actually think, the lack of effective response to the pandemic is unsurprising. It's easy to think that the more like-minded individuals you interact with on a regular basis are modal when the truth is much sadder. UP Michigan represent! (It's probably good they are getting some vitamin D though)

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3149 on: July 20, 2020, 12:36:20 AM »
Suspected overdoses nationally jumped 18 percent in March, 29 percent in April and 42 percent in May, data from ambulance teams, hospitals and police shows.

Browsing through a county report released by coroners near Detroit it was depressing to see many deaths listed as "Overdose / Covid-19".

What does this mean? That they can't tell which it was?

Too polite to say overdosed on hydroxychloroquine?