Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 253698 times)

Mr. Green

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2850 on: July 03, 2020, 08:15:28 AM »
This assumes that once recovered people can no longer get the disease.
Which is fairly likely to be true. There have been no confirmed cases of someone being reinfected with COVID-19 so far, and even if a small handful could be reinfected it's plain that it's a rare event.
This is inaccurate. There are numerous studies that show people who have had COVID producing little-to-no antibodies, depending on the severity of their particular case. Since the virus is little more than half a year old it is premature to point to no confirmed examples of someone getting it a second time as proof that one can only get it once. If anything, the antibody studies point to the possibility that you can indeed get it again.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2851 on: July 03, 2020, 09:08:32 AM »
This assumes that once recovered people can no longer get the disease.
Which is fairly likely to be true. There have been no confirmed cases of someone being reinfected with COVID-19 so far, and even if a small handful could be reinfected it's plain that it's a rare event.
This is inaccurate. There are numerous studies that show people who have had COVID producing little-to-no antibodies, depending on the severity of their particular case. Since the virus is little more than half a year old it is premature to point to no confirmed examples of someone getting it a second time as proof that one can only get it once. If anything, the antibody studies point to the possibility that you can indeed get it again.

That's also my understanding.  Antibodies are how we typically protect ourselves against a reinfection.  What I've read has indicated that covid-19 doesn't produce antibodies in people for very long.

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/studies-report-rapid-loss-of-covid-19-antibodies-67650
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/asymptomatic-covid-19-1.5629172
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/18/health/coronavirus-antibodies.html
etc.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2852 on: July 03, 2020, 10:58:41 AM »
Interesting Twitter thread on COVID-19, Simpsonís paradox, and why looking at nationwide counts is erroneous: https://mobile.twitter.com/mbeckett/status/1278750652160634880

I hope his conclusion is wrong. So far, nothing suggests that it is.

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2853 on: July 03, 2020, 11:18:53 AM »
This assumes that once recovered people can no longer get the disease.
Which is fairly likely to be true. There have been no confirmed cases of someone being reinfected with COVID-19 so far, and even if a small handful could be reinfected it's plain that it's a rare event.
This is inaccurate. There are numerous studies that show people who have had COVID producing little-to-no antibodies, depending on the severity of their particular case. Since the virus is little more than half a year old it is premature to point to no confirmed examples of someone getting it a second time as proof that one can only get it once. If anything, the antibody studies point to the possibility that you can indeed get it again.

42% of the population in Ischgl Austria had antibodies. Out of tthose 85% were never confirmed infected. Thats good news or bad news depending on the angle. There was also a study st a hospital in France where all but 1 person had antibodies out of the confirmed infected. All cases mild.


Mr. Green

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2854 on: July 03, 2020, 12:17:08 PM »
This assumes that once recovered people can no longer get the disease.
Which is fairly likely to be true. There have been no confirmed cases of someone being reinfected with COVID-19 so far, and even if a small handful could be reinfected it's plain that it's a rare event.
This is inaccurate. There are numerous studies that show people who have had COVID producing little-to-no antibodies, depending on the severity of their particular case. Since the virus is little more than half a year old it is premature to point to no confirmed examples of someone getting it a second time as proof that one can only get it once. If anything, the antibody studies point to the possibility that you can indeed get it again.

42% of the population in Ischgl Austria had antibodies. Out of tthose 85% were never confirmed infected. Thats good news or bad news depending on the angle. There was also a study st a hospital in France where all but 1 person had antibodies out of the confirmed infected. All cases mild.
One has to dig into the specifics of the individual test, because antibodies from other coronaviruses, like the common cold, can also produce a positive result.

Also, one of the theories posited by the scientific community for the origin of SARS-CoV-2 is that it is a mutation of a harmless coronavirus that has already been in humans for years. This would help explain the very high positive numbers to studies where fill communities have been tested, since it is unlikely that everyone in the community managed to contract the same virus from close contact within a period of 7 months.

All of this simply reinforces the point that we don't know enough and making assumptions that it is not something to be concerned about is....well you know what they say about assumptions.

obstinate

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2855 on: July 03, 2020, 01:30:57 PM »
This is inaccurate. There are numerous studies that show people who have had COVID producing little-to-no antibodies, depending on the severity of their particular case. Since the virus is little more than half a year old it is premature to point to no confirmed examples of someone getting it a second time as proof that one can only get it once.
So, to be clear, I am asserting that it is likely to be true for any given individual that you can't get the disease again soon after recovering. I'm not saying there will never be an instance. However, it is plainly unlikely that you will be reinfected on a moderate time-frame, since no instances have been reported among the millions of people who have been infected so far. From a public policy and pandemic progression perspective, that's what matters.

Of course, it's possible that whatever immunity infection confers falls off a cliff exactly nine months after you're infected or whatever. But there will be no way to observe that until we pass that threshold (and honestly there is not a near term way to rule out such potentialities in any circumstance). We can only speak about what's likely and not likely. Most virii grant immunity for a period after infection. That should be our prior for this one too, and we have little evidence that cuts against this prior.

If anything, the antibody studies point to the possibility that you can indeed get it again.
On the contrary, antibody studies say little about the subject at all, since there are other causes of immunity beyond antibodies. Also, the antibody studies I've seen that have shown low amounts of antibodies have usually been over cohorts that were selected by their weak immune response to the virus. It may be that such people only need a low amount of antibody to fight off the virus, and thus they may be immune with a lower concentration of antibodies than most infected people.
« Last Edit: July 03, 2020, 01:34:23 PM by obstinate »

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2856 on: July 03, 2020, 01:39:47 PM »
This assumes that once recovered people can no longer get the disease.
Which is fairly likely to be true. There have been no confirmed cases of someone being reinfected with COVID-19 so far, and even if a small handful could be reinfected it's plain that it's a rare event.
This is inaccurate. There are numerous studies that show people who have had COVID producing little-to-no antibodies, depending on the severity of their particular case. Since the virus is little more than half a year old it is premature to point to no confirmed examples of someone getting it a second time as proof that one can only get it once. If anything, the antibody studies point to the possibility that you can indeed get it again.

42% of the population in Ischgl Austria had antibodies. Out of tthose 85% were never confirmed infected. Thats good news or bad news depending on the angle. There was also a study st a hospital in France where all but 1 person had antibodies out of the confirmed infected. All cases mild.
One has to dig into the specifics of the individual test, because antibodies from other coronaviruses, like the common cold, can also produce a positive result.

Also, one of the theories posited by the scientific community for the origin of SARS-CoV-2 is that it is a mutation of a harmless coronavirus that has already been in humans for years. This would help explain the very high positive numbers to studies where fill communities have been tested, since it is unlikely that everyone in the community managed to contract the same virus from close contact within a period of 7 months.

All of this simply reinforces the point that we don't know enough and making assumptions that it is not something to be concerned about is....well you know what they say about assumptions.

The Austrian scientists say probability of false positives is zero. The test is 100% specific.

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2857 on: July 03, 2020, 03:42:24 PM »
This is inaccurate. There are numerous studies that show people who have had COVID producing little-to-no antibodies, depending on the severity of their particular case. Since the virus is little more than half a year old it is premature to point to no confirmed examples of someone getting it a second time as proof that one can only get it once.
So, to be clear, I am asserting that it is likely to be true for any given individual that you can't get the disease again soon after recovering. I'm not saying there will never be an instance. However, it is plainly unlikely that you will be reinfected on a moderate time-frame, since no instances have been reported among the millions of people who have been infected so far. From a public policy and pandemic progression perspective, that's what matters.

Of course, it's possible that whatever immunity infection confers falls off a cliff exactly nine months after you're infected or whatever. But there will be no way to observe that until we pass that threshold (and honestly there is not a near term way to rule out such potentialities in any circumstance). We can only speak about what's likely and not likely. Most virii grant immunity for a period after infection. That should be our prior for this one too, and we have little evidence that cuts against this prior.

If anything, the antibody studies point to the possibility that you can indeed get it again.
On the contrary, antibody studies say little about the subject at all, since there are other causes of immunity beyond antibodies. Also, the antibody studies I've seen that have shown low amounts of antibodies have usually been over cohorts that were selected by their weak immune response to the virus. It may be that such people only need a low amount of antibody to fight off the virus, and thus they may be immune with a lower concentration of antibodies than most infected people.

I'm with her.  Him.   Whichever.    It would be unusual not to develop an immunity to a corona-virus, so there's no need to assume the worst.    The immune system is complex and poorly understood.   Determining lack of immunity to covid-19 will need lots and lots of empirical data, not small antibody studies.

Not to say we can't take reasonable precautions, but we're doing that anyway.   At least those of us outside the US are.

Radagast

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2858 on: July 03, 2020, 06:39:00 PM »
On the original topic, I find I can wait 10 weeks. Which is now in the past. For the last week or two I find I have no further interest in "quarantining." Sure I will wear a mask (we picked up some medical grade N-95's back in January, which we have been rationing. I have been reusing three, I keep one in the office, on in the car, one in the apartment) and wash my hands. But I am generally returning to regular activities. If everyone had done what I did the disease would have been halted.

As I predicted in March, our political leadership has chosen the worst of both worlds: all of the deaths of not really trying, and all of the economic damage of massive shutting down, which will now continue into the further economic damage of ongoing low economic participation and the costs of the disease. We the USA deliberately kicked our own asses, with do-nothing-donny planting the first boot (and quite a few of the rest).

Mr. Green

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2859 on: July 03, 2020, 06:42:38 PM »
This is inaccurate. There are numerous studies that show people who have had COVID producing little-to-no antibodies, depending on the severity of their particular case. Since the virus is little more than half a year old it is premature to point to no confirmed examples of someone getting it a second time as proof that one can only get it once.
So, to be clear, I am asserting that it is likely to be true for any given individual that you can't get the disease again soon after recovering. I'm not saying there will never be an instance. However, it is plainly unlikely that you will be reinfected on a moderate time-frame, since no instances have been reported among the millions of people who have been infected so far. From a public policy and pandemic progression perspective, that's what matters.

Of course, it's possible that whatever immunity infection confers falls off a cliff exactly nine months after you're infected or whatever. But there will be no way to observe that until we pass that threshold (and honestly there is not a near term way to rule out such potentialities in any circumstance). We can only speak about what's likely and not likely. Most virii grant immunity for a period after infection. That should be our prior for this one too, and we have little evidence that cuts against this prior.

If anything, the antibody studies point to the possibility that you can indeed get it again.
On the contrary, antibody studies say little about the subject at all, since there are other causes of immunity beyond antibodies. Also, the antibody studies I've seen that have shown low amounts of antibodies have usually been over cohorts that were selected by their weak immune response to the virus. It may be that such people only need a low amount of antibody to fight off the virus, and thus they may be immune with a lower concentration of antibodies than most infected people.

I'm with her.  Him.   Whichever.    It would be unusual not to develop an immunity to a corona-virus, so there's no need to assume the worst.    The immune system is complex and poorly understood.   Determining lack of immunity to covid-19 will need lots and lots of empirical data, not small antibody studies.

Not to say we can't take reasonable precautions, but we're doing that anyway.   At least those of us outside the US are.
I don't think we should assume the worst. I think we should stop assuming the best, which is what a whole lot of Americans seem to be doing. It's unfortunate, considering the lack of data we have.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2860 on: July 03, 2020, 07:12:58 PM »
You don't have to take either the best or the worst case scenario. Just take the median and re-adjust as you go along. No need to be so overly conservative or aggressive that you throw the baby out with the bathwater.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2861 on: July 04, 2020, 04:59:11 AM »
Update from upside down land.

I have to say I'm impressed by the Victorian government's leadership. Over the past 2 months I think they've gone from too harsh (of a lockdown) to perfectly fair, adjust-on-the-fly policies. We relaxed our lockdown, but have endured a second wave of cases which have been traced to specific suburban hotspots with a dramatic cluster coming out of a few housing commission buildings. The state government has locked down the hotspot area and more or less ordered hundreds of thousands of mandatory tests on all residents in those areas but the non-hotspot areas of the state continue facing fairly lax restrictions, with the exception of large family gatherings which (correctly, in my view) have been banned anew.

This is exactly what I think we needed - a tailored, day-by-day modified approach that discriminates between less safe and more safe areas, and that (although a little complex to enforce) attempts to strike a balance between allowing some freedom of movement for most people and locking down (with proper enforcement measures) the most vulnerable.

Huge kudos to the Victorian government for doing everything they can to try to avoid a second wide lockdown.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2862 on: July 04, 2020, 05:15:22 AM »
Update from upside down land.

I have to say I'm impressed by the Victorian government's leadership. Over the past 2 months I think they've gone from too harsh (of a lockdown) to perfectly fair, adjust-on-the-fly policies. We relaxed our lockdown, but have endured a second wave of cases which have been traced to specific suburban hotspots with a dramatic cluster coming out of a few housing commission buildings. The state government has locked down the hotspot area and more or less ordered hundreds of thousands of mandatory tests on all residents in those areas but the non-hotspot areas of the state continue facing fairly lax restrictions, with the exception of large family gatherings which (correctly, in my view) have been banned anew.

This is exactly what I think we needed - a tailored, day-by-day modified approach that discriminates between less safe and more safe areas, and that (although a little complex to enforce) attempts to strike a balance between allowing some freedom of movement for most people and locking down (with proper enforcement measures) the most vulnerable.

Huge kudos to the Victorian government for doing everything they can to try to avoid a second wide lockdown.

For those of us outside Australia, any links to read up on your government's current approach?

FWIW, I agree with that philosophy - I've long been of the opinion that a nuanced approach with enough resolution to adapt to local realities is the best way to balance public health and economic outcomes across areas with wildly different levels of risk(based on population density) - provided citizens make a sincere attempt at doing the right thing.  At least in the US, that last bit seems to be that hardest part.

Bloop Bloop

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scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2864 on: July 04, 2020, 07:50:11 AM »
Sounds a bit like the Chinese government welding apartment building doors closed.      Any news on how the Aussie government is providing food and other necessities?

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2865 on: July 04, 2020, 08:00:19 AM »
Currently, they are not providing food and other resources. People have been prohibited from leaving their apartments to get food and baby formula, and relatives visiting to bring stuff have been turned away by the police.

It's worth mentioning that a similar approach in Singapore worker's dormitories caused their second spike in infections.

I imagine they'll start sorting themselves out tomorrow... or maybe a month or two. This second spike in infections has been caused by government incompetence - people were in quarantine hotels with guards who had rationed PPE and ten minutes of hygiene training. They were warned about this in... mid-April.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2866 on: July 04, 2020, 09:14:57 AM »
They have said they will be providing food and healthcare.

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2867 on: July 04, 2020, 11:53:36 AM »
I never thought I'd see the Australian government act that way.     If you need to forcibly quarantine people, well ok, but you better be able to provide necessities right from the beginning.

I did not realize (until just now) that the Australian constitution does not have the equivalent of the US bill of rights or the Canadian Charter of rights and freedoms.

If someone dies from this, does the Australian government have any liability?

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2868 on: July 04, 2020, 12:36:08 PM »
Enough rumours have been doing the rounds that the hotel guards were having sex with the people in quarantine that it must be true.

I do find it bizarre the Liberal opposition criticising the Labor Government for using private sector security. After all, isnít the private sector better at providing services than the inefficient public sector? Perhaps the Liberal* Party stopped being hypocrites they might get more traction. But we live in interesting times.

Just last night you had Liberal Federal MP Sussan Ley say that voters in Eden Monaro were praising ScoMo for his leadership in the bushfire crisis. This is CCP level propaganda and doublespeak being shoved upon us.


If someone dies from this, does the Australian government have any liability?

No. And I give our police quite a bit more faith than what you might do with US cops for example.


*Down Under Liberal is Right and Labor is Left in case thatís confusing.

« Last Edit: July 04, 2020, 12:40:09 PM by marty998 »

deborah

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2869 on: July 04, 2020, 12:46:15 PM »
Unfortunately covid19 is spreading rapidly in Melbourne. Both bloop and Kyle may be in lockdown soon, as itís spreading from suburb to suburb. Theyíre gradually locking down different suburbs and testing everyone in those suburbs. Self testing kits are being distributed to households and mobile testing stations are set up in each street to try to test everyone. Compared to other places weíre talking about a minor outbreak - I think yesterday or maybe the day before they started to get over 100 in a day, but a week ago it only just reached double digits. They say the lockdown may only last a week, but who knows?

Weíve been getting a lot of people coming back from overseas in repatriation flights (from memory, there are several thousand currently in government paid mandatory 14 day quarantine in hotels from the flights). Unfortunately the hotel has a private security guard company supervising the quarantine, and some of them got covid19 and spread it to families.

Rosy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2870 on: July 04, 2020, 04:01:23 PM »
Interesting Twitter thread on COVID-19, Simpsonís paradox, and why looking at nationwide counts is erroneous: https://mobile.twitter.com/mbeckett/status/1278750652160634880

I hope his conclusion is wrong. So far, nothing suggests that it is.

@OtherJen interesting conclusions. It is amazing how the same stats can be interpreted in different ways. There is a possibility he might be right. For instance, at present, the reports from Houston hospitals are alarming ... and CA, AR, FL, TX all seem to stir their own COVID cauldron.
Although I believe his estimates of deaths are way overblown.

Indeed, let's hope his conclusion is wrong because 8 weeks of what NY went through here in Florida - I can't begin to imagine.
We'll know for certain in two to three weeks, we'll either be in the middle of devastation or breathe a sigh of relief.

The low death rates reported in FL do make me wonder.
Florida
Deaths from pneumonia for the entire year of 2019 - 918 deaths in Florida
Compared to deaths from pneumonia half a year into 2020 - 5,187 deaths as of 5-27-2020
Perhaps this is where some of the COVID deaths were reported instead.

All this smoke and mirrors and for what? Don't we all just want to survive this pandemic and get on with our lives?

Mr. Green

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2871 on: July 04, 2020, 05:21:17 PM »
https://www.kens5.com/mobile/article/news/health/i-am-healthy-and-now-i-can-barely-even-breathe-sa-mother-shares-long-term-effects-of-coronavirus/273-0ec4298c-4151-4d26-9d92-f7260fc8c1b8

I have read dozens of stories just like this one and it's one of the reasons why I think people who think this is no big deal are incredibly naive.

We aren't collecting any data on people that end up with lingering health problems. By some people's accounts, this woman would be looked at as no big deal. She got COVID, wasn't hospitalized, recovered, and now tests negative. Yet she has lingering health problems that will impact her for quite some time, if not the rest of her life.

There are absolutely a ton of people who will get COVID and it's completely harmless. They are either asymptomatic, or the effects are no worse than a cold. But there appear to be a whole raft of people out there experiencing "after effects" and with no data being collecting on the frequency or severity of these issues it's impossible to know just how bad the overall impact of COVID really is.

There could be enough of these cases that it would change everyone's mind about how they approach dealing with this disease. Also think about the economic impact of someone dealing with lingering health problems. Maybe they can't return to work, or their career is shortened, or they die younger. No one has any idea what that economic fallout could ultimately look like over the next couple decades if our answer is herd immunity, assuming that's even possible.

Sadly, the only enlightenment for many of these folks will come when it happens to them and they are debilitated for a long time. No party, bar, or restaurant meal is worth not being able to breathe right for several years or longer. It's beyond my comprehension why people want to make that gamble.

lemanfan

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2872 on: July 05, 2020, 12:52:04 AM »
No party, bar, or restaurant meal is worth not being able to breathe right for several years or longer. It's beyond my comprehension why people want to make that gamble.

While I do agree with this statement myself, we have to remember that people are human and the longing for companionship or just returning to habit is strong.

Maybe one can draw parallels to the people in London during the Blitz - in the beginning, the civilians were quite good at seeking shelter, but as time went on people tended to just mind their own business even when the air raid sirens started sounding.  That was not even an invisible enemy like a virus, but bomb planes and explosive and incendiary devices.

(At least according to what I've read, even if I have no good reference at this point)

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2873 on: July 05, 2020, 01:17:32 AM »
No party, bar, or restaurant meal is worth not being able to breathe right for several years or longer. It's beyond my comprehension why people want to make that gamble.

While I do agree with this statement myself, we have to remember that people are human and the longing for companionship or just returning to habit is strong.

Maybe one can draw parallels to the people in London during the Blitz - in the beginning, the civilians were quite good at seeking shelter, but as time went on people tended to just mind their own business even when the air raid sirens started sounding.  That was not even an invisible enemy like a virus, but bomb planes and explosive and incendiary devices.

(At least according to what I've read, even if I have no good reference at this point)

Depends on location and individual preferences really. To use a parallel, in the US the lifetime risk of dying from an auto accident is nearly 1% which is incredibly high if you think about it, yet people still drive, and not only for essential reasons either. But I wouldn't drive while intoxicated. Or in atrocious weather conditions. Or if I knew traffic was going to be really bad. But at other times I might drive. Etc.

deborah

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2874 on: July 05, 2020, 04:04:52 AM »
I never thought I'd see the Australian government act that way.     If you need to forcibly quarantine people, well ok, but you better be able to provide necessities right from the beginning.

I did not realize (until just now) that the Australian constitution does not have the equivalent of the US bill of rights or the Canadian Charter of rights and freedoms.

If someone dies from this, does the Australian government have any liability?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-05/coronavirus-lockdown-vic-housing-tower-residents-how-to-help/12423666

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2875 on: July 05, 2020, 04:37:27 AM »
Affected residents are being given food and medical treatment including drug/alcohol/mental health treatment.

A household with an employed person gets paid an extra $1500 this fortnight (since the person won't be able to work, unless remotely) and a household with no employed person gets a supplementary $750 this fortnight.

Rent is waived for the fortnight too (it's all public housing so the government controls that).

I'd say the government has struck a good balance between inconveniencing residents and trying to contain a public health emergency.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2876 on: July 05, 2020, 05:00:54 AM »
Singapore worker dormitories.

Here we go again.

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2877 on: July 05, 2020, 06:58:34 AM »
Affected residents are being given food and medical treatment including drug/alcohol/mental health treatment.

A household with an employed person gets paid an extra $1500 this fortnight (since the person won't be able to work, unless remotely) and a household with no employed person gets a supplementary $750 this fortnight.

Rent is waived for the fortnight too (it's all public housing so the government controls that).

I'd say the government has struck a good balance between inconveniencing residents and trying to contain a public health emergency.

That's what I'd expect from Australia. 

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2878 on: July 05, 2020, 01:36:18 PM »

42% of the population in Ischgl Austria had antibodies. Out of tthose 85% were never confirmed infected. Thats good news or bad news depending on the angle. There was also a study st a hospital in France where all but 1 person had antibodies out of the confirmed infected. All cases mild.
One has to dig into the specifics of the individual test, because antibodies from other coronaviruses, like the common cold, can also produce a positive result.

Also, one of the theories posited by the scientific community for the origin of SARS-CoV-2 is that it is a mutation of a harmless coronavirus that has already been in humans for years. This would help explain the very high positive numbers to studies where fill communities have been tested, since it is unlikely that everyone in the community managed to contract the same virus from close contact within a period of 7 months.

All of this simply reinforces the point that we don't know enough and making assumptions that it is not something to be concerned about is....well you know what they say about assumptions.
[/quote]

Well, the virologists at the university of Innsbruck who did the testing said there is zero chance of false positives (the specificity of the testing method is 100%) and my base case is that they know what they are doing. And since they tested 90% of the population for antibodies its only like 1500 tests conducted given how few actually live there.

As for Ischgl, I'd say its pretty likely that a large share of the locals there got infected during a short time period given how easily Covid-19 seems to spread. Its a tiny village high up in the Austrian Alps. In the skiing season they get a massive influx of people from all over Europe (big and popular ski resort) and tons of tourists got infected there and a very large part of the population work in hospitality one way or another and get exsposed to a lot of people.

This is how it looks, along the valley from one end to another it's 0.6 miles total distance. Now imagine the 1700 locals + thousands of ski tourists staying in that tiny area. This tiny cluttering of houses has around 12.000 tourist beds and > 1.3 million bed-nights per winter season. I'd say its entirely plausible Covid-19 could spread very widely and quickly in a place like this, which also is what the antibody study finds actually happened. It is one of the well-known early Eruopean epicentres where a lot of cases got exported from by tourists who returned to their home country. Remember, this all happened before Covid-19 was really a thing and no precautions were taken.



« Last Edit: July 05, 2020, 01:42:39 PM by habaneroNorway »

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2879 on: July 06, 2020, 09:57:23 PM »
This sucks, Victoria's had 191 new cases today and we're about to enter a general lockdown (again).

Can't argue with the lockdown given the number of cases. There have been a total of 90 cases from one single religious school cluster (I reckon it's related to family gatherings during Eid) and there are a number of family clusters in the NW region of the city that have reached 20+ people just from each cluster. Like, how does that happen? Do you decide to have 12 people over for a family dinner with shared food during the pandemic, or something stupid like that? Also about 70 cases from residents in dense public housing but it's harder to blame them because the infrastructure isn't good and they're in cramped conditions.

At some stage it's too hard to just limit the lockdown to a particular locality so now indications are the whole of metro Melbourne has to be locked down, hard.

alsoknownasDean

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2880 on: July 07, 2020, 03:27:47 AM »
This sucks, Victoria's had 191 new cases today and we're about to enter a general lockdown (again).

Can't argue with the lockdown given the number of cases. There have been a total of 90 cases from one single religious school cluster (I reckon it's related to family gatherings during Eid) and there are a number of family clusters in the NW region of the city that have reached 20+ people just from each cluster. Like, how does that happen? Do you decide to have 12 people over for a family dinner with shared food during the pandemic, or something stupid like that? Also about 70 cases from residents in dense public housing but it's harder to blame them because the infrastructure isn't good and they're in cramped conditions.

At some stage it's too hard to just limit the lockdown to a particular locality so now indications are the whole of metro Melbourne has to be locked down, hard.

I guess the issue with the suburb by suburb lockdown is that you're continually adding more, and there's a lag between the infection and symptoms. Look at how many cases have popped up in the Wyndham council area in such a short space of time. They were probably infected back in June. At some point you just have to draw the line.

I was reading an article earlier today about people going over the Vic-NSW border before it closes tonight, and the holiday park owners in NSW were worried that they would be bringing in COVID-19. We'll find out in a week or two.

Affected residents are being given food and medical treatment including drug/alcohol/mental health treatment.

There's been plenty of charities willing to help out, but the logistics of it (especially as the lockdown of those buildings was sudden) takes a bit to ramp up, especially when catering for different dietary requirements. But a lot of people have volunteered assistance.
« Last Edit: July 07, 2020, 03:35:16 AM by alsoknownasDean »

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2881 on: July 07, 2020, 03:38:27 AM »
A point: there have been fewer cases spread from people's self-isolation than from hotel quarantine. Which is to say, "stay home and don't see anyone" has been more effective than spending millions of dollars and much "expertise" on quarantine. Government help has been worse than doing nothing at all.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2882 on: July 07, 2020, 05:16:03 AM »
Um... I'm sorry, have you not been advocating that people do what they want, basically, since the beginning of this pandemic??? And also that you're low risk etc etc. Well, people have done whatever they wanted, and now your area is screwed. But you're low risk, so no worries??? Enjoy your 6 week lockdown. When it ends, perhaps you could be one of the ones making better choices for the good of everyone.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2883 on: July 07, 2020, 05:19:41 AM »
I never thought I'd see the Australian government act that way.     If you need to forcibly quarantine people, well ok, but you better be able to provide necessities right from the beginning.

I did not realize (until just now) that the Australian constitution does not have the equivalent of the US bill of rights or the Canadian Charter of rights and freedoms.

If someone dies from this, does the Australian government have any liability?

Australia has an awful human rights history, and they're pretty horrendous now. Google Nauru, Christmas and Manus Islands.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2884 on: July 07, 2020, 06:23:45 AM »
Um... I'm sorry, have you not been advocating that people do what they want, basically, since the beginning of this pandemic??? And also that you're low risk etc etc. Well, people have done whatever they wanted, and now your area is screwed. But you're low risk, so no worries??? Enjoy your 6 week lockdown. When it ends, perhaps you could be one of the ones making better choices for the good of everyone.

Yeah, I am low risk. Let's compare me to a typical quarantine hotel worker who's responsible for one of the clusters

I live alone - He lives with a large extended family

I work from home - He works in a quarantine hotel/abattoir/whatever

I have no colleagues - He has lots of coworkers

I contact no one in close proximity - He contacts lots of people in close proximity

When I do see family, it's a gathering of 4 - When he sees family, it's a gathering of 10+ (see Daniel Andrews's run down of what people were doing wrong)

I don't live in the north/western suburbs where 90% of infections are - He does.

So...don't compare me to the people who screwed it up for everyone.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2885 on: July 07, 2020, 07:01:38 AM »
Um... I'm sorry, have you not been advocating that people do what they want, basically, since the beginning of this pandemic??? And also that you're low risk etc etc. Well, people have done whatever they wanted, and now your area is screwed. But you're low risk, so no worries??? Enjoy your 6 week lockdown. When it ends, perhaps you could be one of the ones making better choices for the good of everyone.

Yeah, I am low risk. Let's compare me to a typical quarantine hotel worker who's responsible for one of the clusters

I live alone - He lives with a large extended family

I work from home - He works in a quarantine hotel/abattoir/whatever

I have no colleagues - He has lots of coworkers

I contact no one in close proximity - He contacts lots of people in close proximity

When I do see family, it's a gathering of 4 - When he sees family, it's a gathering of 10+ (see Daniel Andrews's run down of what people were doing wrong)

I don't live in the north/western suburbs where 90% of infections are - He does.

So...don't compare me to the people who screwed it up for everyone.

You ARE one of the people that screwed it up for everyone. You're exactly the same complacent, delusional not-me idiot as everyone else in Melbourne who managed to justify to themselves that they shouldn't wear a mask or social distance or generally follow the advice of their betters. You've been on this site twattering and highly opinionated about the pandemic from the beginning, and now look where you are. Enjoy lockdown. It's actually frickin hilarious that this has happened to YOU. You know, apart from the people dying and shit.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2886 on: July 07, 2020, 07:08:07 AM »
Um... I'm sorry, have you not been advocating that people do what they want, basically, since the beginning of this pandemic??? And also that you're low risk etc etc. Well, people have done whatever they wanted, and now your area is screwed. But you're low risk, so no worries??? Enjoy your 6 week lockdown. When it ends, perhaps you could be one of the ones making better choices for the good of everyone.

Yeah, I am low risk. Let's compare me to a typical quarantine hotel worker who's responsible for one of the clusters

I live alone - He lives with a large extended family

I work from home - He works in a quarantine hotel/abattoir/whatever

I have no colleagues - He has lots of coworkers

I contact no one in close proximity - He contacts lots of people in close proximity

When I do see family, it's a gathering of 4 - When he sees family, it's a gathering of 10+ (see Daniel Andrews's run down of what people were doing wrong)

I don't live in the north/western suburbs where 90% of infections are - He does.

So...don't compare me to the people who screwed it up for everyone.

Life isnít fair. Neither are pandemics.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2887 on: July 07, 2020, 07:46:10 AM »
Um... I'm sorry, have you not been advocating that people do what they want, basically, since the beginning of this pandemic??? And also that you're low risk etc etc. Well, people have done whatever they wanted, and now your area is screwed. But you're low risk, so no worries??? Enjoy your 6 week lockdown. When it ends, perhaps you could be one of the ones making better choices for the good of everyone.

Yeah, I am low risk. Let's compare me to a typical quarantine hotel worker who's responsible for one of the clusters

I live alone - He lives with a large extended family

I work from home - He works in a quarantine hotel/abattoir/whatever

I have no colleagues - He has lots of coworkers

I contact no one in close proximity - He contacts lots of people in close proximity

When I do see family, it's a gathering of 4 - When he sees family, it's a gathering of 10+ (see Daniel Andrews's run down of what people were doing wrong)

I don't live in the north/western suburbs where 90% of infections are - He does.

So...don't compare me to the people who screwed it up for everyone.

You ARE one of the people that screwed it up for everyone. You're exactly the same complacent, delusional not-me idiot as everyone else in Melbourne who managed to justify to themselves that they shouldn't wear a mask or social distance or generally follow the advice of their betters. You've been on this site twattering and highly opinionated about the pandemic from the beginning, and now look where you are. Enjoy lockdown. It's actually frickin hilarious that this has happened to YOU. You know, apart from the people dying and shit.

I think your irrational anger is clouding your ability to be objective about these things. I am not a high risk person because I simply don't encounter that many people day to day (whether strangers or family members or co-workers) and I don't do the type of things - like health work, or manual work, or food service, or security work - that are more likely to bring me into contact with the virus.

You're just going off on your own little idealogical rant at this stage.

Yeah, it's a little annoying for me because now whenever I go on a date I have to pretend it's for "exercise" and I can't enjoy wine bars etc but I'm hardly the one most impacted...so your little tirade doesn't work on any level at all.

Kris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2888 on: July 07, 2020, 08:14:27 AM »
Um... I'm sorry, have you not been advocating that people do what they want, basically, since the beginning of this pandemic??? And also that you're low risk etc etc. Well, people have done whatever they wanted, and now your area is screwed. But you're low risk, so no worries??? Enjoy your 6 week lockdown. When it ends, perhaps you could be one of the ones making better choices for the good of everyone.

Yeah, I am low risk. Let's compare me to a typical quarantine hotel worker who's responsible for one of the clusters

I live alone - He lives with a large extended family

I work from home - He works in a quarantine hotel/abattoir/whatever

I have no colleagues - He has lots of coworkers

I contact no one in close proximity - He contacts lots of people in close proximity

When I do see family, it's a gathering of 4 - When he sees family, it's a gathering of 10+ (see Daniel Andrews's run down of what people were doing wrong)

I don't live in the north/western suburbs where 90% of infections are - He does.

So...don't compare me to the people who screwed it up for everyone.

You ARE one of the people that screwed it up for everyone. You're exactly the same complacent, delusional not-me idiot as everyone else in Melbourne who managed to justify to themselves that they shouldn't wear a mask or social distance or generally follow the advice of their betters. You've been on this site twattering and highly opinionated about the pandemic from the beginning, and now look where you are. Enjoy lockdown. It's actually frickin hilarious that this has happened to YOU. You know, apart from the people dying and shit.

I think your irrational anger is clouding your ability to be objective about these things. I am not a high risk person because I simply don't encounter that many people day to day (whether strangers or family members or co-workers) and I don't do the type of things - like health work, or manual work, or food service, or security work - that are more likely to bring me into contact with the virus.

You're just going off on your own little idealogical rant at this stage.

Yeah, it's a little annoying for me because now whenever I go on a date I have to pretend it's for "exercise" and I can't enjoy wine bars etc but I'm hardly the one most impacted...so your little tirade doesn't work on any level at all.

LMAO -- see, here's the thing. You keep saying you're low risk, except you keep going out on dates with people you don't know well. People whose own levels of precaution-taking and risk level you don't know except by what they say. People who, presumably, are going out with other people besides you, who are therefore taking *their* word about their own levels of precaution...

This "it's not me-ism" is tiresome to watch by the rest of us, who just have to sit back and shake our heads at your lack of self-awareness.

the_fixer

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How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2889 on: July 07, 2020, 08:16:32 AM »
@Bloop Bloop

Ummm yeah whatever



Last night I went to a couple of wine bars and it was pretty much business as usual. The first was a popular bar and I'm certain the 20 person limit wasn't being followed (not that I was gonna call the cops, you know. They're doing their best to survive and I was happy to support them.) Yes, we had to write down names and numbers when going in for contact tracing purposes, but there wasn't a lot of social distancing. Young people at a bar who are going on dates and ordering wine ain't gonna social distance. That's just the nature of things, you know?

Actually the electricity went out completely and it was pitch black and we had to resort to each table having a candle, which made it nice and romantic but definitely didn't help for social distancing haha. Not that I was complaining.

When you have a disease that mainly targets the elderly (or at least here in Australia it seems to only cause permanent damage in middle-aged and elderly individuals) and when you have a young populace that's been locked down for 3 months, it's just difficult to enforce. That's human nature.

I'll be bar hopping again tonight and will report back on whether other places are doing social distancing or not.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
« Last Edit: July 07, 2020, 08:18:54 AM by the_fixer »

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2890 on: July 07, 2020, 08:22:43 AM »
Um... I'm sorry, have you not been advocating that people do what they want, basically, since the beginning of this pandemic??? And also that you're low risk etc etc. Well, people have done whatever they wanted, and now your area is screwed. But you're low risk, so no worries??? Enjoy your 6 week lockdown. When it ends, perhaps you could be one of the ones making better choices for the good of everyone.

Yeah, I am low risk. Let's compare me to a typical quarantine hotel worker who's responsible for one of the clusters

I live alone - He lives with a large extended family

I work from home - He works in a quarantine hotel/abattoir/whatever

I have no colleagues - He has lots of coworkers

I contact no one in close proximity - He contacts lots of people in close proximity

When I do see family, it's a gathering of 4 - When he sees family, it's a gathering of 10+ (see Daniel Andrews's run down of what people were doing wrong)

I don't live in the north/western suburbs where 90% of infections are - He does.

So...don't compare me to the people who screwed it up for everyone.

You ARE one of the people that screwed it up for everyone. You're exactly the same complacent, delusional not-me idiot as everyone else in Melbourne who managed to justify to themselves that they shouldn't wear a mask or social distance or generally follow the advice of their betters. You've been on this site twattering and highly opinionated about the pandemic from the beginning, and now look where you are. Enjoy lockdown. It's actually frickin hilarious that this has happened to YOU. You know, apart from the people dying and shit.

I think your irrational anger is clouding your ability to be objective about these things. I am not a high risk person because I simply don't encounter that many people day to day (whether strangers or family members or co-workers) and I don't do the type of things - like health work, or manual work, or food service, or security work - that are more likely to bring me into contact with the virus.

You're just going off on your own little idealogical rant at this stage.

Yeah, it's a little annoying for me because now whenever I go on a date I have to pretend it's for "exercise" and I can't enjoy wine bars etc but I'm hardly the one most impacted...so your little tirade doesn't work on any level at all.

LMAO -- see, here's the thing. You keep saying you're low risk, except you keep going out on dates with people you don't know well. People whose own levels of precaution-taking and risk level you don't know except by what they say. People who, presumably, are going out with other people besides you, who are therefore taking *their* word about their own levels of precaution...

This "it's not me-ism" is tiresome to watch by the rest of us, who just have to sit back and shake our heads at your lack of self-awareness.

I might go on an average of, say, 2 dates a week. With an average of say, 1.3 new people a week (since some of the dates are obviously with a person I'd met earlier). So if you add that to my list of weekly contacts I still come into contact with a lot fewer people than - say - any food service worker, emergency services worker, security guard, abattoir worker etc

Don't confuse my cavalier attitude towards these things with having an objectively higher risk of self/other transmission. At the end of the day, there's a reason why the vast majority of cases have clustered in specific geographical / occupational niches.

Kris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2891 on: July 07, 2020, 08:30:41 AM »
Um... I'm sorry, have you not been advocating that people do what they want, basically, since the beginning of this pandemic??? And also that you're low risk etc etc. Well, people have done whatever they wanted, and now your area is screwed. But you're low risk, so no worries??? Enjoy your 6 week lockdown. When it ends, perhaps you could be one of the ones making better choices for the good of everyone.

Yeah, I am low risk. Let's compare me to a typical quarantine hotel worker who's responsible for one of the clusters

I live alone - He lives with a large extended family

I work from home - He works in a quarantine hotel/abattoir/whatever

I have no colleagues - He has lots of coworkers

I contact no one in close proximity - He contacts lots of people in close proximity

When I do see family, it's a gathering of 4 - When he sees family, it's a gathering of 10+ (see Daniel Andrews's run down of what people were doing wrong)

I don't live in the north/western suburbs where 90% of infections are - He does.

So...don't compare me to the people who screwed it up for everyone.

You ARE one of the people that screwed it up for everyone. You're exactly the same complacent, delusional not-me idiot as everyone else in Melbourne who managed to justify to themselves that they shouldn't wear a mask or social distance or generally follow the advice of their betters. You've been on this site twattering and highly opinionated about the pandemic from the beginning, and now look where you are. Enjoy lockdown. It's actually frickin hilarious that this has happened to YOU. You know, apart from the people dying and shit.

I think your irrational anger is clouding your ability to be objective about these things. I am not a high risk person because I simply don't encounter that many people day to day (whether strangers or family members or co-workers) and I don't do the type of things - like health work, or manual work, or food service, or security work - that are more likely to bring me into contact with the virus.

You're just going off on your own little idealogical rant at this stage.

Yeah, it's a little annoying for me because now whenever I go on a date I have to pretend it's for "exercise" and I can't enjoy wine bars etc but I'm hardly the one most impacted...so your little tirade doesn't work on any level at all.

LMAO -- see, here's the thing. You keep saying you're low risk, except you keep going out on dates with people you don't know well. People whose own levels of precaution-taking and risk level you don't know except by what they say. People who, presumably, are going out with other people besides you, who are therefore taking *their* word about their own levels of precaution...

This "it's not me-ism" is tiresome to watch by the rest of us, who just have to sit back and shake our heads at your lack of self-awareness.

I might go on an average of, say, 2 dates a week. With an average of say, 1.3 new people a week (since some of the dates are obviously with a person I'd met earlier). So if you add that to my list of weekly contacts I still come into contact with a lot fewer people than - say - any food service worker, emergency services worker, security guard, abattoir worker etc

Don't confuse my cavalier attitude towards these things with having an objectively higher risk of self/other transmission. At the end of the day, there's a reason why the vast majority of cases have clustered in specific geographical / occupational niches.

The law of holes applies well here, Bloop:

When you're in a hole, stop digging.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2892 on: July 07, 2020, 08:32:20 AM »

Last night I went to a couple of wine bars and it was pretty much business as usual. The first was a popular bar and I'm certain the 20 person limit wasn't being followed (not that I was gonna call the cops, you know. They're doing their best to survive and I was happy to support them.) Yes, we had to write down names and numbers when going in for contact tracing purposes, but there wasn't a lot of social distancing. Young people at a bar who are going on dates and ordering wine ain't gonna social distance. That's just the nature of things, you know?

Actually the electricity went out completely and it was pitch black and we had to resort to each table having a candle, which made it nice and romantic but definitely didn't help for social distancing haha. Not that I was complaining.

When you have a disease that mainly targets the elderly (or at least here in Australia it seems to only cause permanent damage in middle-aged and elderly individuals) and when you have a young populace that's been locked down for 3 months, it's just difficult to enforce. That's human nature.

I'll be bar hopping again tonight and will report back on whether other places are doing social distancing or not.

This is pretty much the exact scenario for much of the community spread here in the US, and now the infection rates among younger people are increasing. Good luck.

sui generis

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2893 on: July 07, 2020, 09:03:46 AM »
Um... I'm sorry, have you not been advocating that people do what they want, basically, since the beginning of this pandemic??? And also that you're low risk etc etc. Well, people have done whatever they wanted, and now your area is screwed. But you're low risk, so no worries??? Enjoy your 6 week lockdown. When it ends, perhaps you could be one of the ones making better choices for the good of everyone.

Yeah, I am low risk. Let's compare me to a typical quarantine hotel worker who's responsible for one of the clusters

I live alone - He lives with a large extended family

I work from home - He works in a quarantine hotel/abattoir/whatever

I have no colleagues - He has lots of coworkers

I contact no one in close proximity - He contacts lots of people in close proximity

When I do see family, it's a gathering of 4 - When he sees family, it's a gathering of 10+ (see Daniel Andrews's run down of what people were doing wrong)

I don't live in the north/western suburbs where 90% of infections are - He does.

So...don't compare me to the people who screwed it up for everyone.

You ARE one of the people that screwed it up for everyone. You're exactly the same complacent, delusional not-me idiot as everyone else in Melbourne who managed to justify to themselves that they shouldn't wear a mask or social distance or generally follow the advice of their betters. You've been on this site twattering and highly opinionated about the pandemic from the beginning, and now look where you are. Enjoy lockdown. It's actually frickin hilarious that this has happened to YOU. You know, apart from the people dying and shit.

I think your irrational anger is clouding your ability to be objective about these things. I am not a high risk person because I simply don't encounter that many people day to day (whether strangers or family members or co-workers) and I don't do the type of things - like health work, or manual work, or food service, or security work - that are more likely to bring me into contact with the virus.

You're just going off on your own little idealogical rant at this stage.

Yeah, it's a little annoying for me because now whenever I go on a date I have to pretend it's for "exercise" and I can't enjoy wine bars etc but I'm hardly the one most impacted...so your little tirade doesn't work on any level at all.

LMAO -- see, here's the thing. You keep saying you're low risk, except you keep going out on dates with people you don't know well. People whose own levels of precaution-taking and risk level you don't know except by what they say. People who, presumably, are going out with other people besides you, who are therefore taking *their* word about their own levels of precaution...

This "it's not me-ism" is tiresome to watch by the rest of us, who just have to sit back and shake our heads at your lack of self-awareness.

I might go on an average of, say, 2 dates a week. With an average of say, 1.3 new people a week (since some of the dates are obviously with a person I'd met earlier). So if you add that to my list of weekly contacts I still come into contact with a lot fewer people than - say - any food service worker, emergency services worker, security guard, abattoir worker etc

Don't confuse my cavalier attitude towards these things with having an objectively higher risk of self/other transmission. At the end of the day, there's a reason why the vast majority of cases have clustered in specific geographical / occupational niches.

Your weekly contacts is not 1.3 people, it has to include ALL the people that were in that enclosed indoor space with you that entire time  at the wine bar you mentioned on just one date.  You were breathing their air (and vice versa and all without presumably even the mitigation of a mask), so they are your contacts now, too.  How many were in the wine bar over the course of your date?  15?  25? 40?  And that was just the one date that week.  So maybe your contacts were 80+ direct contacts that week.  Not 1.3.

Physicsteacher

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2894 on: July 07, 2020, 09:08:04 AM »
Um... I'm sorry, have you not been advocating that people do what they want, basically, since the beginning of this pandemic??? And also that you're low risk etc etc. Well, people have done whatever they wanted, and now your area is screwed. But you're low risk, so no worries??? Enjoy your 6 week lockdown. When it ends, perhaps you could be one of the ones making better choices for the good of everyone.

Yeah, I am low risk. Let's compare me to a typical quarantine hotel worker who's responsible for one of the clusters

I live alone - He lives with a large extended family

I work from home - He works in a quarantine hotel/abattoir/whatever

I have no colleagues - He has lots of coworkers

I contact no one in close proximity - He contacts lots of people in close proximity

When I do see family, it's a gathering of 4 - When he sees family, it's a gathering of 10+ (see Daniel Andrews's run down of what people were doing wrong)

I don't live in the north/western suburbs where 90% of infections are - He does.

So...don't compare me to the people who screwed it up for everyone.

Bloop Bloop, you have privilege that those you say screwed it up for everyone don't. The people living in extended family groups and working hazardous high contact low wage jobs aren't generally doing that because they think it is fun. They are doing it because it is literally the best option available to survive and care for their loved ones.

You could make choices that would reduce your own risk and that of your community. You don't, and then vilify people who are doing the best they can under far more challenging circumstances.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2895 on: July 07, 2020, 09:13:29 AM »
Um... I'm sorry, have you not been advocating that people do what they want, basically, since the beginning of this pandemic??? And also that you're low risk etc etc. Well, people have done whatever they wanted, and now your area is screwed. But you're low risk, so no worries??? Enjoy your 6 week lockdown. When it ends, perhaps you could be one of the ones making better choices for the good of everyone.

Yeah, I am low risk. Let's compare me to a typical quarantine hotel worker who's responsible for one of the clusters

I live alone - He lives with a large extended family

I work from home - He works in a quarantine hotel/abattoir/whatever

I have no colleagues - He has lots of coworkers

I contact no one in close proximity - He contacts lots of people in close proximity

When I do see family, it's a gathering of 4 - When he sees family, it's a gathering of 10+ (see Daniel Andrews's run down of what people were doing wrong)

I don't live in the north/western suburbs where 90% of infections are - He does.

So...don't compare me to the people who screwed it up for everyone.

Bloop Bloop, you have privilege that those you say screwed it up for everyone don't. The people living in extended family groups and working hazardous high contact low wage jobs aren't generally doing that because they think it is fun. They are doing it because it is literally the best option available to survive and care for their loved ones.

You could make choices that would reduce your own risk and that of your community. You don't, and then vilify people who are doing the best they can under far more challenging circumstances.

Yep. What's next, blame the hospital workers?

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2896 on: July 07, 2020, 09:14:33 AM »
I'm low but not no contact. I do my grocery shopping and go to the hardware store for garden supplies.  I had the hoe sharpened yesterday. I sat 2.5m away from a friend in her garden. I wear an N95 mask for all shopping.  Businesses sanitize shopping carts. To me bloop bloop is medium contact.  He is meeting people and is near other people who are basically strangers, in indoor venues where wearing a mask is difficult (bars).  He has more direct contact than the hardware clerk who checked my purchases today, who was behind a plexiglass screen and was wearing a mask and gloves.

O wad some Power the giftie gie us, to see oursels as ithers see us.  Robbie Burns nails it, as usual.

Mr. Green

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2897 on: July 07, 2020, 09:30:09 AM »
https://www.kens5.com/mobile/article/news/health/i-am-healthy-and-now-i-can-barely-even-breathe-sa-mother-shares-long-term-effects-of-coronavirus/273-0ec4298c-4151-4d26-9d92-f7260fc8c1b8

I have read dozens of stories just like this one and it's one of the reasons why I think people who think this is no big deal are incredibly naive.

We aren't collecting any data on people that end up with lingering health problems. By some people's accounts, this woman would be looked at as no big deal. She got COVID, wasn't hospitalized, recovered, and now tests negative. Yet she has lingering health problems that will impact her for quite some time, if not the rest of her life.

There are absolutely a ton of people who will get COVID and it's completely harmless. They are either asymptomatic, or the effects are no worse than a cold. But there appear to be a whole raft of people out there experiencing "after effects" and with no data being collecting on the frequency or severity of these issues it's impossible to know just how bad the overall impact of COVID really is.

There could be enough of these cases that it would change everyone's mind about how they approach dealing with this disease. Also think about the economic impact of someone dealing with lingering health problems. Maybe they can't return to work, or their career is shortened, or they die younger. No one has any idea what that economic fallout could ultimately look like over the next couple decades if our answer is herd immunity, assuming that's even possible.

Sadly, the only enlightenment for many of these folks will come when it happens to them and they are debilitated for a long time. No party, bar, or restaurant meal is worth not being able to breathe right for several years or longer. It's beyond my comprehension why people want to make that gamble.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/07/07/health/richard-quest-covid-wellness-intl/index.html

Here's another one. If you actually read this guy's description of problems he's having it's quite evident that he has damage to his nervous system, most likely his brain. And it's been almost 3 months! 3 MONTHS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

And these are just the people whose stories manage to find their way to a news outlet. Think about all the people who are suffering in silence. I'm telling you, this is bigger than whether or not you go to the hospital. No one needs to turn into a doomsday prepper or fear leaving their house but just use some common sense and stay away from crowded, indoor, and poorly ventilated areas. Please. People obviously aren't or places wouldn't be locking down again.

If you've never been in a position where you "just don't feel right" for long periods then you don't know just how sucky it is. I have the unfortunate enlightenment of a bizarre knee injury that no one knows how to address for going on 8 years now. Trust me when I say you don't want a long term or permanent injury to a major bodily system.
« Last Edit: July 07, 2020, 09:32:18 AM by Mr. Green »

obstinate

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2898 on: July 07, 2020, 09:59:18 AM »
Yeah, it's a little annoying for me because now whenever I go on a date I have to pretend it's for "exercise" and I can't enjoy wine bars etc but I'm hardly the one most impacted...so your little tirade doesn't work on any level at all.
I would say I'm shocked by the selfishness on display here, but it has been a consistent pattern in your posts. I'm disgusted and appalled by that attitude. If it were less common, we'd have beat this pandemic by now.
« Last Edit: July 07, 2020, 10:46:07 AM by obstinate »

wenchsenior

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2899 on: July 07, 2020, 10:12:16 AM »
Yeah, it's a little annoying for me because now whenever I go on a date I have to pretend it's for "exercise" and I can't enjoy wine bars etc but I'm hardly the one most impacted...so your little tirade doesn't work on any level at all.
I would say I'm shocked by your selfishness but you've pretty much made your fuck-you-got-mine attitude clear from the beginning of the pandemic. I'm disgusted and appalled by it but if such things bothered you you would not behave as you do. If folks with your attitude didn't exist, we'd have had far more luck controlling the spread of this virus than we have done.

I feel sorry for his dates.