Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 248260 times)

stoaX

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3550 on: August 10, 2020, 11:49:16 AM »
Why would the US lag the others, when they’ve been busy cornering the market?

Something like 30% of people in the US have said they won't get the vaccine even if it's free. And it won't be. Plus we have no way to mass distribute a vaccine like this.  A huge portion of the country has no consistent access to medical care.

The US can't even get people to vaccinate for things that are proven to be safe. This is something new and rushed.

What makes you think that a covid vaccine won't be free to people who choose to get it?

Because healthcare in the US is never free.  There is NOTHING in our health system right now that everyone can access free.  Why would we think this will be? It might be covered by insurance, but that depends on you having insurance.

Right now, Rite Aid is offering free Covid-19 tests. When they are available, schools and employers will probably offer free vaccinations. People who don't work or attend school will probably be able to get a free covid vaccination at places like Rite Aid, CVS, etc. Obviously, nothing is actually free. Someone will be paying for it, i.e., US taxpayers, but I doubt that any individual in the US will have to pay out of pocket for a Covid-19 vaccination.

I don't live near a rite-aid, so I would not be able to access this free test.  I had to get covid testing and had to pay for a doctor's appt for it. The test was fully covered by my insurance.
My employer offers "free" flu shots- but only if you have their insurance, then they waive the copay. If you have insurance through elsewhere, you can't get a "free" flu shot, you have to pay your copay.  Our grocery stores, CVS, Walgreens, all charge for flu vaccines (though typically insurance covers it- but if you don't have insurance...), none are "free".

Who is covering the rite-aid tests if you don't have insurance? Is rite aid paying for this? Do they have a government grant? 
I have a number of friends who are without insurance due to job loss, ineligibility for an exchange in our state, and inability to pay for COBRA (which is insanity)- who would cover this vaccine for them?

My state uses the federal exchange. When I retired I went on an ACA plan since I lost my employer sponsored health insurance (even though I could've continued it on cobra). What state exchange doesn't consider loss of coverage due to termination of employment a qualifying event?  That seems harsh. 

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3551 on: August 10, 2020, 12:07:20 PM »
Why would the US lag the others, when they’ve been busy cornering the market?

Something like 30% of people in the US have said they won't get the vaccine even if it's free. And it won't be. Plus we have no way to mass distribute a vaccine like this.  A huge portion of the country has no consistent access to medical care.

The US can't even get people to vaccinate for things that are proven to be safe. This is something new and rushed.

What makes you think that a covid vaccine won't be free to people who choose to get it?

Because healthcare in the US is never free.  There is NOTHING in our health system right now that everyone can access free.  Why would we think this will be? It might be covered by insurance, but that depends on you having insurance.

Right now, Rite Aid is offering free Covid-19 tests. When they are available, schools and employers will probably offer free vaccinations. People who don't work or attend school will probably be able to get a free covid vaccination at places like Rite Aid, CVS, etc. Obviously, nothing is actually free. Someone will be paying for it, i.e., US taxpayers, but I doubt that any individual in the US will have to pay out of pocket for a Covid-19 vaccination.

I don't live near a rite-aid, so I would not be able to access this free test.  I had to get covid testing and had to pay for a doctor's appt for it. The test was fully covered by my insurance.
My employer offers "free" flu shots- but only if you have their insurance, then they waive the copay. If you have insurance through elsewhere, you can't get a "free" flu shot, you have to pay your copay.  Our grocery stores, CVS, Walgreens, all charge for flu vaccines (though typically insurance covers it- but if you don't have insurance...), none are "free".

Who is covering the rite-aid tests if you don't have insurance? Is rite aid paying for this? Do they have a government grant? 
I have a number of friends who are without insurance due to job loss, ineligibility for an exchange in our state, and inability to pay for COBRA (which is insanity)- who would cover this vaccine for them?

Not sure, but I'm guessing Rite Aid isn't paying for the covid testing itself. Probably, they're getting reimbursed by the government to do the testing. Hopefully, everyone who wants to get the covid vaccine will be able to do so, without regard to whether, or not, they have the resources to pay for it. It seems like making the vaccine available to as many people as possible would be in everyone's best interest.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3552 on: August 10, 2020, 07:05:43 PM »


Death Rate per infection is an illusion as you are not going to be able to know how many infections there are. You mostly get the infected with symptoms and this is one of the reasons why numbers vary  wildy in different countries. Testing i("healthy" people) is at very different levels still.


This is why we do antibody testing to get an idea of infection penetration.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3553 on: August 10, 2020, 07:21:47 PM »
Case numbers in Victoria seem to be stabilising which is good

Fingers crossed life can get back to "normal" (i.e. most people back at work, and day trips allowed once again) sooner rather than later because the economic and mental health cost of the lockdowns has been a grave one.


Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3554 on: August 10, 2020, 09:18:59 PM »
Andrews will keep the lockdowns going, Bloop. He'll be shit-scared of a third surge which would - in his mind - necessitate shutting things down over Christmas. So he'll keep it going till December, open things up then for Christmas shopping and family visits, then there'll be another surge in January with a fresh panic.

His only obstacle will be parliament. But they've proven fairly malleable so far. His Omnibus Bill in May was passed with the help of the Shooters & Fishers party, who got a 12 month extension on hunting licenses, and the Animal Justice Party, whose MP had a son who got a government job the day the bill was passed.

Since they're bribed so easily I imagine he'll not have trouble extending things when the state of emergency 6 month limit comes up September 16th, and in any case he can legally renew states of disaster indefinitely without consulting parliament.

So our only hope really is the fact that the federal funds will slow down after September. I'd expected the federal govt to be open to keeping the tap on for Victoria, but when Andrews went to stage 4 and put 250,000 more people out of work and onto JobKeeper/JobSeeker, he added at least $100 million a week to the federal government's expenses - and he didn't ask them first. This does not encourage them to be generous in future.

When the Commonwealth money slows, public opposition and civil disobedience will increase. It's one thing to be bored, depressed and lonely locked up at home with at least a decent bank balance, it's another thing to be bored, depressed, lonely and locked up and broke.


October will tell.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3555 on: August 10, 2020, 10:06:44 PM »
I'm hoping that the Federal government will signal it's going to turn off the taps which will then put pressure on Andrews to allow us to open up slowly.

I suspect a lot of the "second wave" consisted of huge outbreaks in meat works, NW suburbs (due to large families) and in particular, aged care homes. Those outbreaks not going to be ongoing ones. Meatworks are easily dealt (in hindsight) with via contact tracing and forced reduction of man-hours, like what we've got now. The NW suburbs outbreaks are probably the reason for our strict curfew (which I support, if only because it makes it harder for people to visit extended families and have large social/religious celebrations, all of which are verboten), but the curfew and lockdown can be eased in stages. We can impose geographical lockdowns as needed. And the aged care homes crisis has ravaged all it can ravage. It's running out of steam.

So I think once the numbers  stay down for a while and the funding dries up, we'll face real pressure to re-open, and hopefully we'll do so.

I don't even think we need a "full" re-opening. Just limit it to allowing most workers back onsite; dining out in small numbers; social gatherings of 2 people at a time; and day trips for things like hiking and golf. Essentially stage 2. I could live with stage 2 for the rest of my life and it wouldn't bother me one iota.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3556 on: August 10, 2020, 11:05:21 PM »
There's what we could do, reasonably, and then there's what Andrews is likely to do. Those are two different things.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3557 on: August 11, 2020, 07:28:19 AM »
It seems like making the vaccine available to as many people as possible would be in everyone's best interest.

Having healthcare available to all citizens seems like it would be in everyone's best interest, but we lack that too.

I hope you are right and the vaccine is no cost to all.

dougules

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3558 on: August 11, 2020, 03:04:48 PM »
How is life in the rest of Australia?  Are things fairly normal outside of Victoria?

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3559 on: August 11, 2020, 06:11:01 PM »
Yes, fairly normal, they're down to 0 or a few cases a day, and don't have a lot of restrictions. Sydney has a few little outbreaks of 10-20 a day which they've got a fairly good grip on, but of course there are people calling for more lockdowns. Most of the states have borders closed to each-other - basically they're trying to keep out Vic and NSW infections. We're a country divided by state borders now.

deborah

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3560 on: August 11, 2020, 07:14:25 PM »
How is life in the rest of Australia?  Are things fairly normal outside of Victoria?
I live in a jurisdiction that hasn’t had any cases at all for more than a month. We still have limits - in a few days gyms are going to be allowed to be 24/7 but with fewer customers, all shops and restaurants have limits on the numbers but the food courts will be allowed to have some tables soon. We aren’t supposed to travel far (and we can’t cross state borders)...

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3561 on: August 11, 2020, 07:30:42 PM »
As New Zealand has shown, elimination is not possible. Suppression is the only viable strategy. We have to get case numbers low enough so that community transmission is minimal/modest and then open up for the sake of limiting economic damage.

I think we should keep in place indefinite (till a vaccine is found) restrictions on extended family gatherings, weddings, funerals, indoor gatherings and all religious services, to limit community transmission. Low-risk activities involving only a couple or a few people like exercise, hiking, golf, and nuclear family gatherings should be allowed.

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3562 on: August 12, 2020, 02:03:16 AM »
How is life in the rest of Australia?  Are things fairly normal outside of Victoria?

Am currently on public transport in Sydney. It’s about 5% as busy as it usually is in peak hour.

Was in the city over the weekend, most pubs were closed on Saturday night.

So no... things are not fairly normal here.

People are taking this seriously. And people are adapting.... I actually don’t see a lot of complaining at all... everyone is keeping as wide a distance as they can from each other.

Habits are being formed I guess.


alsoknownasDean

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3564 on: August 12, 2020, 09:29:19 AM »
How is life in the rest of Australia?  Are things fairly normal outside of Victoria?

Am currently on public transport in Sydney. It’s about 5% as busy as it usually is in peak hour.

Was in the city over the weekend, most pubs were closed on Saturday night.

So no... things are not fairly normal here.

People are taking this seriously. And people are adapting.... I actually don’t see a lot of complaining at all... everyone is keeping as wide a distance as they can from each other.

Habits are being formed I guess.

Are many people wearing masks up there? With the continued lower-level transmission in Sydney, surely there'd be discussion over a mask mandate coming into order up there.

I've taken public transport once since early March. That was because I was moving house and decided to ride my bike from my old home to my new home, and got the bus back.

But I'm sure that things are pretty much normal outside of Victoria and parts of NSW. The odd case keeps popping up in other states, but aside from a few cases in Queensland, most of them are from people in quarantine. Facebook posts from friends in Tasmania and Western Australia seem to indicate that things are fairly normal there.

dougules

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3565 on: August 12, 2020, 01:21:46 PM »
Meanwhile, in the heart of Murica...

https://www.usatoday.com/picture-gallery/news/nation/2020/08/09/2020-sturgis-motorcycle-rally-draws-thousands-no-mask-requirements-covid-19-coronavirus/3331908001/

The irony is that the main demographic at Sturgis is older overweight males.  Exactly the high risk group. 

JGS1980

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3566 on: August 12, 2020, 01:46:58 PM »
who smoke and drink more than the average male of that demographic

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3567 on: August 12, 2020, 03:35:06 PM »
Are many people wearing masks up there? With the continued lower-level transmission in Sydney, surely there'd be discussion over a mask mandate coming into order up there.

All 12 people in my train carriage right now are wearing masks and sitting an appropriate distance apart.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3568 on: August 12, 2020, 10:13:19 PM »
Numbers dropping here in Victoria thank god and it's been only 10 days since the first of the stage 4 restrictions came in and only 7 days since the retail closure kicked in. So I think the drop has been driven by the earlier stage 3 restrictions and hopefully the stage 4 restrictions drive further decreases in coming days.

Then we can start the most important discussion about when to open things up again. Commuting, Retail, dining, construction would be a good start to try to limit the economic damage and get consumer spending back to normal. We do need to keep hospitals, abattoirs, and aged care homes under lock and key for a while though.

Good news too about vaccine trials. If those go to plan then maybe by early next year we can return to normal, or effectively normal (just with bans on large gatherings).

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3569 on: August 12, 2020, 10:28:26 PM »
Department of health released figures stating median age of covid deaths in Australia is 83 with range 33 to 103

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3570 on: August 12, 2020, 11:19:42 PM »

Numbers dropping here in Victoria thank god and it's been only 10 days since the first of the stage 4 restrictions came in and only 7 days since the retail closure kicked in. So I think the drop has been driven by the earlier stage 3 restrictions and hopefully the stage 4 restrictions drive further decreases in coming days.

Yes, stage 4 was punitive merely.

Cases will remain in the triple digits as it's still making its way through aged care, meatworks and warehousing, and their households.

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Then we can start the most important discussion about when to open things up again.

We can start the discussion, but it won't be determined by science, but politics. If it were determined by science we wouldn't have a Stage 4 at all - the CHO didn't want one. If it were determined by science then, with stage 4 only 10 days old and not yet run long enough to show an effect, we would not have the Premier saying,


"What this shows you, not just today's numbers as a single day, but if you look at the trend over the last seven days or so, these stage 4 restrictions — as heartbreaking, as challenging as painful as they are — are working. We would just caution against any Victorian thinking that we aren't in the midst of a real marathon."

Andrews, suffering his target fixation on covid, and struggling with the cognitive dissonance of the ineffectiveness of the punitive lockdowns, will want to keep the screws tightened for as long as politically possible.

In October the federal money taps turns from 200% to 150% flow, and people will start thinking about the future when it goes back to its old 50% flow.

In November people will start wondering about Christmas, and so plans will be made to reopen retail and some restaurants and cinemas and so on then. The decision will only be: do you reopen Dec 1st and have lots of cases from the 15th, or do you reopen the 8th and, because there'll be the same number of people crammed into a shorter timeframe, have LOTS of cases from the 22nd? There will be talk of whether to let people visit extended family etc, but whatever the rules, it will happen, and so there will be a big case surge in January.

If Andrews is still Premier in January then we'll have another lockdown then.

Stop being hopeful, Bloop, you're a lawyer, you know better than this, that what could or should happen is not necessarily what will happen. Be realistic. Andrews has told us: he's going to make us do a marathon. Of course, the marathon is named after the run a guy did where at the end he died...
« Last Edit: August 12, 2020, 11:29:51 PM by Kyle Schuant »

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3571 on: August 12, 2020, 11:34:29 PM »
I'm ever an optimist, which is probably why I'm not as good a lawyer as I could be. But it makes the rest of life much more pleasant.

Stage 4 is largely punitive for those office professionals and department store workers who are now stuck at home for no particular reason, but I actually support the curfew. It prevents unwanted family gatherings and social parties. You're not going to have a dinner party or a birthday party or a party for grandma if everyone has to park their cars 3 streets away and be done by 7.30pm. As far as I'm concerned the curfew can continue till the vaccine is found because it prevents extended gatherings and celebrations which are the backbone of community spread.

As for aged care, I think everyone who could have gotten infected has gotten infected, haven't they? The aged care number isn't important for assessing lockdown anyway, as Andrews has said he'll focus on community transmission.

As for the opening up debate, the fact is that Andrews also took a ridiculously hard stance (against opening up) in May, but within a couple of weeks of very low case numbers, he changed his tune. Politicians are ruled by sentiment. Right now when there are a lot of aged care residents dying, and we've had high case numbers, no one wants to ask the obvious, and crucial, question of when we can stop haemorrhaging money via the lockdowns. But give it two weeks, when unemployment mounts, and money gets tight, and we're having 50 cases a day only, and the tide will start turning.

I am confident that by September 13 we'll be back down to level 3, if not level 2.

As for what happens over Christmas, the best case scenario would be heavy enforcement of, and fines/jail time for, religious services and extended family gatherings to prevent a "third wave". But I agree with you that it's going to be a tough political sell. Hopefully people remember the importance of keeping to nuclear families and couples ONLY. If not, maybe we'll be able to escape Victoria for a little period and let the rest of the state lock down in January while we holiday in South Australia, or something. Because I agree that Christmas is going to be a real danger.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3572 on: August 13, 2020, 12:15:55 AM »

I'm ever an optimist, which is probably why I'm not as good a lawyer as I could be. But it makes the rest of life much more pleasant.

You can compartmentalise your cynicism, as I do. I'm hopeful about people, and cynical about governments and other large organisations.

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Stage 4 is largely punitive for those office professionals and department store workers who are now stuck at home for no particular reason, but I actually support the curfew.

The curfew has no effect on spread, and is unnecessarily authoritarian. Along with the other nonsense, it leads to abuses by police.

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As for aged care, I think everyone who could have gotten infected has gotten infected, haven't they?

Not at all. There are 745 such facilities in Victoria. There are 13 aged care facilities with infection clusters, with a total of over 1,000 people infected, a bit under half staff and more than half residents. The state government persists in having covid+ residents remain in the residence until they need hospitalisation, coupled with the 2-5 day test return time and 7-21 day contact tracing time, this maximises the chances of spread within each facility and through the households of the staff. Of course, they've also stopped swapping staff around between facilities so that minimises one infection vector, but it all started from family contacts - the sort of families who have someone working in aged care also often have someone working in security, or a meatworks, or warehousing - working class, minimum wage, part-time casual jobs.

Thus Sutton's statement on July 25th,

"The very places where we are seeing outbreaks, the very places where we are seeing transmission, are the places that would remain open if we went to a stage four. We shouldn't pretend that a really broad shutdown of industry will address where we are seeing the transmission."

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The aged care number isn't important for assessing lockdown anyway, as Andrews has said he'll focus on community transmission. [...] Politicians are ruled by sentiment. Right now when there are a lot of aged care residents dying, and we've had high case numbers, no one wants to ask the obvious, and crucial, question of when we can stop haemorrhaging money via the lockdowns.
These two statements contradict each-other. We're still seeing ~60 cases a day from aged care, which means 6-12 deaths a day 7-14 days from now. Even if he wanted to open up, all the newspaper spreads with pictures and life stories of those who've died, the empty funerals some journalist photographed, will be on the news.

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But give it two weeks, when unemployment mounts, and money gets tight, and we're having 50 cases a day only, and the tide will start turning.

We're not going to have 50 cases a day in two weeks, it'll be 100-200. Think October.

Money won't be tight until October - for someone who's been living on a part-time casual wage, $1,500 a fortnight is often a raise, and for someone who's been living on $565 a fortnight dole, $1,100 is awesome - and anyway, neither party cares what people on the dole think.

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As for what happens over Christmas, the best case scenario would be heavy enforcement of, and fines/jail time for, religious services and extended family gatherings to prevent a "third wave". But I agree with you that it's going to be a tough political sell.
If Andrews puts people in prison for celebrating Christmas he won't be Premier at the end of January. If he merely fines them then I give him 50-50 chances. Unless people are dropping dead in the streets I just can't see it happening.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3573 on: August 13, 2020, 02:42:31 AM »
Kyle, I think you make some good points about the problematic intersection of politics and populism.

But perhaps the government could try a shift in rhetoric? So far we've gone pretty light on families. Maybe an advertising jingle - "Visiting grandma for Christmas might kill her. Do the right thing, stay home." I'd be happy for the punitive curfew to be extended just to deter family visits of that sort. Or we could just have different rules for different suburbs / occupations depending on what the demographic data shows. I think the populace will be able to moderate expectations regarding extended family visits if we get the messaging right. For example mask use went from 10% to 100% in a matter of days despite not being popular initially.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3574 on: August 13, 2020, 03:51:41 AM »
perhaps the government could try a shift in rhetoric? So far we've gone pretty light on families. Maybe an advertising jingle - "Visiting grandma for Christmas might kill her. Do the right thing, stay home."
Given that state and federal government incompetence are causing grandmas in their hundreds to die alone in nursing homes, I'm not sure that'd be persuasive. As well, by then it'll have been going for 9 months, and December will mark the 11th month out of 12 in 2020 in a state of emergency and/or disaster. I suspect the rhetoric will be wearing thin.

I don't think it's possible for them to shift rhetoric. They just instinctively go for the moral finger wagging and threats. As an example, think of the Myki fare evasion campaigns.
 
"to avoid a fine, touch on"
"fare evasion is stealing, $207 fine"
"now you see him, now you don't" (image of ticket inspector half in ordinary clothing and half in uniform)
"if you're worried about being caught freeloading, you should be, you will be caught, you will be fined" (this one was in all caps, white on black background)


The tone is always we will get you, you bastard! Always. That's just the way Australian governments talk to the people - and this is not peculiar to either of the major parties, it's just Australian. It is not co-operative and encouraging. As I've said, deep down they think they're wardens in charge of convicts, or maybe squatters flogging convict workers and shooting blackfellahs.


Which is why we go on about being "larrikins", the same way they named their country the United States and went on to have a civil war, and why any Democratic People's Republic isn't. We're actually quite authoritarian.


But authoritarian or not, once the bank balance starts draining, the tolerance for loneliness, boredom, misery and death will reduce considerably. I hate to lay the hopes for our freedom in the hands of ScoMo and the LNP of all people, and their (lol) financial prudence - but there it is.


deborah

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3575 on: August 13, 2020, 01:36:04 PM »

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3576 on: August 13, 2020, 03:29:09 PM »
perhaps the government could try a shift in rhetoric? So far we've gone pretty light on families. Maybe an advertising jingle - "Visiting grandma for Christmas might kill her. Do the right thing, stay home."
Given that state and federal government incompetence are causing grandmas in their hundreds to die alone in nursing homes, I'm not sure that'd be persuasive. As well, by then it'll have been going for 9 months, and December will mark the 11th month out of 12 in 2020 in a state of emergency and/or disaster. I suspect the rhetoric will be wearing thin.

I don't think it's possible for them to shift rhetoric. They just instinctively go for the moral finger wagging and threats. As an example, think of the Myki fare evasion campaigns.
 
"to avoid a fine, touch on"
"fare evasion is stealing, $207 fine"
"now you see him, now you don't" (image of ticket inspector half in ordinary clothing and half in uniform)
"if you're worried about being caught freeloading, you should be, you will be caught, you will be fined" (this one was in all caps, white on black background)


The tone is always we will get you, you bastard! Always. That's just the way Australian governments talk to the people - and this is not peculiar to either of the major parties, it's just Australian. It is not co-operative and encouraging. As I've said, deep down they think they're wardens in charge of convicts, or maybe squatters flogging convict workers and shooting blackfellahs.


Which is why we go on about being "larrikins", the same way they named their country the United States and went on to have a civil war, and why any Democratic People's Republic isn't. We're actually quite authoritarian.


But authoritarian or not, once the bank balance starts draining, the tolerance for loneliness, boredom, misery and death will reduce considerably. I hate to lay the hopes for our freedom in the hands of ScoMo and the LNP of all people, and their (lol) financial prudence - but there it is.

You Aussie's barely had a first wave with less than 1000 cases per million population.   What's got everyone so excited that you need a curfew and a really strict lockdown?

Identify the cause of the outbreak and fix it.   Contact trace everyone involved to stop the spread.    Get back to normal.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3577 on: August 13, 2020, 03:58:15 PM »
It's pretty difficult because here in Australia we are not economic rationalists like in the U.S.

There is a lot of popular support for the lockdown and the prevailing attitude is that job losses can be filled in with free money from the government and that can be paid off by rich people's taxes later on.

There has been a bit of news about a spike in domestic violence and in calls to our depression hotline but no one seems keen to do the cost/benefit analysis in that sense.

Australians are generally not anti-government like Americans are - as Kyle said, we are a sheeplike people.

I don't mind the curfew and strict lockdown because I think it's worth tolerating for 6 weeks and then getting it over with. I think people will realise after this period is done that most of the really strict measures (especially the job lock-out) are not sustainable and that if these 6 weeks don't fix things we may just have to accept a certain level of infection and death going forward.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3578 on: August 13, 2020, 04:54:12 PM »
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/patient-zero-for-victoria-s-second-wave-was-not-a-security-guard-20200813-p55li3.html

Interesting article stating that leaked emails indicate that the source of the Victorian second wave was a hotel employee who caught it from a returned traveller and who then spread to five security guards who then spread it to their families. Their families all lived in the north and western suburbs of Melbourne, which is why that area was locked down first, but the community spread was too much to contain.

Perhaps for the next pandemic, we can have more nuanced lockdown rules. E.g., immediate family members of anyone who works in a high risk industry are subject to stricter lockdown rules than family members where all members work from home.

Before you say that this sort of scheme would be too hard to implement, our stage 4 lockdown already has a variety of that, where work rights and childcare rights are decided by individual permit. No one except essential workers is allowed to travel outside for work, and that's decided via permit.

Edit - the other thought I had is that how did these security guards do such an amazing job of seeding the 2nd wave? Did they all go home and immediately cough on their 10 family members or something? They cannot be blamed for contracting the virus, but they knew they were in an extremely high risk occupation (they were guarding known positive patients) and so you'd think they and their family would take precautions to prevent spread. Just dumb.
« Last Edit: August 13, 2020, 05:01:37 PM by Bloop Bloop »

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3579 on: August 13, 2020, 06:53:33 PM »
I have officially changed my FIRE plans.

I am moving to Australia and becoming a security guard as it sounds like they get all of the hot action. I find it amazing that they have so much sex, I mean here in the US security guards get laughed at and no action but apparently it truly is an upside down world in the land of AUS and they are sex machines.


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AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3580 on: August 13, 2020, 06:59:25 PM »
perhaps the government could try a shift in rhetoric? So far we've gone pretty light on families. Maybe an advertising jingle - "Visiting grandma for Christmas might kill her. Do the right thing, stay home."
Given that state and federal government incompetence are causing grandmas in their hundreds to die alone in nursing homes, I'm not sure that'd be persuasive. As well, by then it'll have been going for 9 months, and December will mark the 11th month out of 12 in 2020 in a state of emergency and/or disaster. I suspect the rhetoric will be wearing thin.

I don't think it's possible for them to shift rhetoric. They just instinctively go for the moral finger wagging and threats. As an example, think of the Myki fare evasion campaigns.
 
"to avoid a fine, touch on"
"fare evasion is stealing, $207 fine"
"now you see him, now you don't" (image of ticket inspector half in ordinary clothing and half in uniform)
"if you're worried about being caught freeloading, you should be, you will be caught, you will be fined" (this one was in all caps, white on black background)


The tone is always we will get you, you bastard! Always. That's just the way Australian governments talk to the people - and this is not peculiar to either of the major parties, it's just Australian. It is not co-operative and encouraging. As I've said, deep down they think they're wardens in charge of convicts, or maybe squatters flogging convict workers and shooting blackfellahs.


Which is why we go on about being "larrikins", the same way they named their country the United States and went on to have a civil war, and why any Democratic People's Republic isn't. We're actually quite authoritarian.


But authoritarian or not, once the bank balance starts draining, the tolerance for loneliness, boredom, misery and death will reduce considerably. I hate to lay the hopes for our freedom in the hands of ScoMo and the LNP of all people, and their (lol) financial prudence - but there it is.

You Aussie's barely had a first wave with less than 1000 cases per million population.   What's got everyone so excited that you need a curfew and a really strict lockdown?

Identify the cause of the outbreak and fix it.   Contact trace everyone involved to stop the spread.    Get back to normal.

The lockdown is to prevent spread while the contact tracing is happening. One infected person can result in hundreds of infections in a couple of days. Contact tracing can't possibly work that fast. The lockdown allows the time required to ring fence the outbreak. I imagine the curfew is really just to make the authorities job easier. What's go everyone so excited is the shit show going on in other countries. The point is really to prevent that. Don't know why this is all news to you.

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3581 on: August 14, 2020, 03:21:22 PM »
It's pretty difficult because here in Australia we are not economic rationalists like in the U.S.

There is a lot of popular support for the lockdown and the prevailing attitude is that job losses can be filled in with free money from the government and that can be paid off by rich people's taxes later on.

There has been a bit of news about a spike in domestic violence and in calls to our depression hotline but no one seems keen to do the cost/benefit analysis in that sense.

Australians are generally not anti-government like Americans are - as Kyle said, we are a sheeplike people.

I don't mind the curfew and strict lockdown because I think it's worth tolerating for 6 weeks and then getting it over with. I think people will realise after this period is done that most of the really strict measures (especially the job lock-out) are not sustainable and that if these 6 weeks don't fix things we may just have to accept a certain level of infection and death going forward.

Yeah, but it'll just pop up again somewhere else.   Instead of shutting everything down, you guys should get really good a whack a mole and get back to something close to normal.  (with apologies to moles who are harmless little creatures)    I think/hope that's what Canadian governments are trying to do.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3582 on: August 14, 2020, 08:20:15 PM »
Quote
Professor Brett Sutton has shed some light on how restrictions could be rolled-back across Victoria when the state’s COVID-19 numbers are under control.

The Chief Health Officer said based on the data, restrictions would be eased in areas that are not contributing to virus spread.

The psychological and health benefits of easing certain restrictions would be considered, he said, as the restrictions are “profoundly challenging” for single parents or people living alone.

But as large family gatherings had driven transmission earlier in the pandemic, Professor Sutton said would be a “balancing act” to allow people to visit each other’s homes, and it would be unlikely that groups of 10 would be allowed at residences straight away.

The bolded is music to my ears.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3583 on: August 14, 2020, 11:01:20 PM »
It's pretty difficult because here in Australia we are not economic rationalists like in the U.S.

There is a lot of popular support for the lockdown and the prevailing attitude is that job losses can be filled in with free money from the government and that can be paid off by rich people's taxes later on.

There has been a bit of news about a spike in domestic violence and in calls to our depression hotline but no one seems keen to do the cost/benefit analysis in that sense.

Australians are generally not anti-government like Americans are - as Kyle said, we are a sheeplike people.

I don't mind the curfew and strict lockdown because I think it's worth tolerating for 6 weeks and then getting it over with. I think people will realise after this period is done that most of the really strict measures (especially the job lock-out) are not sustainable and that if these 6 weeks don't fix things we may just have to accept a certain level of infection and death going forward.
The “solution”, if there is one, needs to take into account the local culture.  What works for Australia may well not work in the US. I’m thinking that the first lockdown in the US with the exception of some real hotspots like NYC or Detroit didn’t work out so well. We wrecked our economy to not much benefit and got widespread COVID anyway.

alsoknownasDean

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3584 on: August 14, 2020, 11:10:52 PM »
The bolded is music to my ears.

Yeah I'm hoping that my area has significantly fewer cases to the point where this is can occur, but I'm in the northern suburbs, so we'll see.

Crossed fingers that I can visit my family in regional VIC by the end of September.

If the R value is actually getting to 0.6 then cases are likely to be under 50 per day by the time the current lockdown ends.

Gin1984

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3585 on: August 15, 2020, 07:32:18 AM »
Why would the US lag the others, when they’ve been busy cornering the market?

Something like 30% of people in the US have said they won't get the vaccine even if it's free. And it won't be. Plus we have no way to mass distribute a vaccine like this.  A huge portion of the country has no consistent access to medical care.

The US can't even get people to vaccinate for things that are proven to be safe. This is something new and rushed.

What makes you think that a covid vaccine won't be free to people who choose to get it?

Because healthcare in the US is never free.  There is NOTHING in our health system right now that everyone can access free.  Why would we think this will be? It might be covered by insurance, but that depends on you having insurance.

Right now, Rite Aid is offering free Covid-19 tests. When they are available, schools and employers will probably offer free vaccinations. People who don't work or attend school will probably be able to get a free covid vaccination at places like Rite Aid, CVS, etc. Obviously, nothing is actually free. Someone will be paying for it, i.e., US taxpayers, but I doubt that any individual in the US will have to pay out of pocket for a Covid-19 vaccination.

I don't live near a rite-aid, so I would not be able to access this free test.  I had to get covid testing and had to pay for a doctor's appt for it. The test was fully covered by my insurance.
My employer offers "free" flu shots- but only if you have their insurance, then they waive the copay. If you have insurance through elsewhere, you can't get a "free" flu shot, you have to pay your copay.  Our grocery stores, CVS, Walgreens, all charge for flu vaccines (though typically insurance covers it- but if you don't have insurance...), none are "free".

Who is covering the rite-aid tests if you don't have insurance? Is rite aid paying for this? Do they have a government grant? 
I have a number of friends who are without insurance due to job loss, ineligibility for an exchange in our state, and inability to pay for COBRA (which is insanity)- who would cover this vaccine for them?

My state uses the federal exchange. When I retired I went on an ACA plan since I lost my employer sponsored health insurance (even though I could've continued it on cobra). What state exchange doesn't consider loss of coverage due to termination of employment a qualifying event?  That seems harsh.
Also under the ACA, all insurance is required to cover the flu shot as preventive therefore under all insurances your flu shot should be free aka no copy.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3586 on: August 15, 2020, 08:26:01 PM »
Being The Australian they overstate things, but there's a lot of truth in this article.

Quote
Perhaps the announcements, if they must continue, could give us real information: “There have been 637 new cases today, but happily 480 were young people who had no symptoms and didn’t know they’d been infected. Oh, and only two of today’s cases were serious enough to need to go to hospital.”

Maybe for context they could dilute their irresponsible scaremongering by including details of the other 450 people who die in Australia each day, including the victims of lockdown: the suicides and those who, too frightened to visit a doctor or hospital, are dying avoidable deaths through lack of screening and treatment (Britain anticipates as many as 35,000 extra deaths in the next year from cancer sufferers presenting late with correspondingly advanced tumours); and the people tumbling into despair, depression and other mental and physical illnesses.

Perhaps the premier could hand over to the state’s treasurer, who would read out the number added daily to the jobless lists, the businesses forced into bankruptcy, the mortgages foreclosed.

Then someone from social services could talk about the growth in homelessness, the “huge increase” in domestic violence reported by victim support groups, the marriage breakdowns.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3587 on: August 15, 2020, 08:52:13 PM »
Being The Australian they overstate things, but there's a lot of truth in this article.

Quote
Perhaps the announcements, if they must continue, could give us real information: “There have been 637 new cases today, but happily 480 were young people who had no symptoms and didn’t know they’d been infected. Oh, and only two of today’s cases were serious enough to need to go to hospital.”

Maybe for context they could dilute their irresponsible scaremongering by including details of the other 450 people who die in Australia each day, including the victims of lockdown: the suicides and those who, too frightened to visit a doctor or hospital, are dying avoidable deaths through lack of screening and treatment (Britain anticipates as many as 35,000 extra deaths in the next year from cancer sufferers presenting late with correspondingly advanced tumours); and the people tumbling into despair, depression and other mental and physical illnesses.

Perhaps the premier could hand over to the state’s treasurer, who would read out the number added daily to the jobless lists, the businesses forced into bankruptcy, the mortgages foreclosed.

Then someone from social services could talk about the growth in homelessness, the “huge increase” in domestic violence reported by victim support groups, the marriage breakdowns.

Now that we know the IFR is actually not as high as the top half of the error bars in early March and that severe complications are not extremely common, there might be somewhat of a sunk-cost fallacy associated with lockdown measures: politicians will highlight the benefits of avoided Covid deaths but ignore the costs in other forms of morbidity associated with the extraordinary measures. The more-brazen and the lower-trust countries that couldn't control their populations as much are lucky that herd immunity thresholds could be as low as 20% and that those thresholds are already massively impacting the rate of new infections in many of the harder-hit areas. It's clear everyone was guessing 5 months ago and, through some path-dependency and other random factors, some countries made different guesses than others. I'm sure that a detailed post-mortem will indicate almost no government deserves any sort of victory lap and that humanity needs a more dynamic approach with better data-integration to handle future biological threats.

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3588 on: August 15, 2020, 08:59:57 PM »
Being The Australian they overstate things, but there's a lot of truth in this article.

Quote
Perhaps the announcements, if they must continue, could give us real information: “There have been 637 new cases today, but happily 480 were young people who had no symptoms and didn’t know they’d been infected. Oh, and only two of today’s cases were serious enough to need to go to hospital.”

Maybe for context they could dilute their irresponsible scaremongering by including details of the other 450 people who die in Australia each day, including the victims of lockdown: the suicides and those who, too frightened to visit a doctor or hospital, are dying avoidable deaths through lack of screening and treatment (Britain anticipates as many as 35,000 extra deaths in the next year from cancer sufferers presenting late with correspondingly advanced tumours); and the people tumbling into despair, depression and other mental and physical illnesses.

Perhaps the premier could hand over to the state’s treasurer, who would read out the number added daily to the jobless lists, the businesses forced into bankruptcy, the mortgages foreclosed.

Then someone from social services could talk about the growth in homelessness, the “huge increase” in domestic violence reported by victim support groups, the marriage breakdowns.


It’s a violation of various privacy acts to disclose personal medical information. For a news agency who is railing against the government for infringing on people’s rights, it is curious they want the government to further violate citizens rights.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3589 on: August 15, 2020, 09:33:42 PM »
You can disclose personal details in aggregate. Hell, every time there's 10 deaths they'll say stuff like "5 were men in their 70s, 2 were women in their 70s, 2 were women in their 80s and 1 was a man in his 90s" so it's perfectly fine to give data out about age, comorbidities etc

I do think that more information is always a good thing especially as it allows us to assess the QALY equation

A vaccine is imminent (the gov't has signed 2 non-disclosure agreements and that almost always bodes something material in the works) and it may well be that in the end, in hindsight, we learn from our errors and do a lot better with the next pandemic / zombie / alien invasion etc

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3590 on: August 15, 2020, 09:43:57 PM »

I do think that more information is always a good thing especially as it allows us to assess the QALY equation

Judging by this quote the government is doing everyone a favour not releasing it so that Armchair Experts do not assess QALYs with limited information.

At its most basic you’d probably assess the 50 year old as worth more than the 60 year old. If that’s all the info that is released.

What would not be published is that the 50 year old is a criminal, and the 60 year old is a primary carer for a grandchild.

It obviously gets much more complicated than that in reality, and the nuance is lost.


Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3591 on: August 15, 2020, 10:08:00 PM »
Well, I don't know that I'd judge QALY based on whether someone is a criminal or a primary carer or whatever. But it would be good to know comorbidity info at least.

And it would be good also to have suburb-by-suburb breakdowns so we can better understand and assess things like:

- Currently xx% of cases are to do with aged care clusters in NW Melbourne. The remaining xx% cases of community/family transmission are predominantly located in X, Y and Z areas
- The most covid-free zones in Melb are x, y, and z
- The most covid-dense zones are x, y, and z
- If the following areas can stay <50 active cases then they will likely head to stage 3 by September: ...
- The following areas are tracking poorly due to extended family/community transmission and need to do more in order to thaw by September: ....

Yeah, I know the government doesn't trust its citizens to use info wisely so they'll never disseminate it, but in a perfect society we'd know the score, a lot better than we do now. We really should have suburbs competing with neighbouring suburbs to outdo each other in terms of compliance, lack of community spread, etc

alsoknownasDean

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3592 on: August 15, 2020, 10:12:00 PM »
Well, I don't know that I'd judge QALY based on whether someone is a criminal or a primary carer or whatever. But it would be good to know comorbidity info at least.

And it would be good also to have suburb-by-suburb breakdowns so we can better understand and assess things like:

Like this data?

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiODBmMmE3NWQtZWNlNC00OWRkLTk1NjYtMjM2YTY1MjI2NzdjIiwidCI6ImMwZTA2MDFmLTBmYWMtNDQ5Yy05Yzg4LWExMDRjNGViOWYyOCJ9
« Last Edit: August 15, 2020, 10:13:39 PM by alsoknownasDean »

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3593 on: August 16, 2020, 01:00:32 AM »
It’s a violation of various privacy acts to disclose personal medical information.
No more than is already disclosed about covid+ people. Obviously if you talk about small numbers and specific places, then people can figure things out. "A 49yo trainer who works at ACE gym in Clayton South -" yeah there's only one of us so... :)

I don't really believe in QALY and similar measures. Obviously I feel differently personally, but across a whole state or country, I believe the life of my healthy 9yo son should be given neither more nor less weight than the life of 92yo diabetic demented corpulent Gladys in the nursing home. So I'm interested in weighing it up: action A causes X deaths, action B causes Y deaths, whether A>B or A<B determines whether we pursue action A or B.

It's certainly worth doing something which might kill 1,000 people if it saves another 2,000 lives, but reverse the numbers and we come to a different conclusion. For this we need numbers.

I'd be content to keep statistics statewide and weekly, even monthly, and in fact I'd be happy if we just reported "excess deaths from any cause". For example, we know that March and April saw 815 excess deaths in Victoria. Voluntary behaviours changed starting about March 1st, and government lockdowns March 23rd, with all of April having some sort of lockdown statewide. We know that covid deaths were 19 in March and April, and so 796 extra deaths occurred because of lockdown measures, both voluntary and state-imposed.

Thus, if lockdown measures saved 796 people from dying from covid in March and April, we're better off. At time of this writing, Australia has suffered 379 deaths and 23,035 cases overall; we have extensive testing and even in May it was assumed this led to capturing 85% of the infections, we've really taken off on testing then especially in Victoria so it'd be higher still now. Anyway this leads to a death rate of 1.64% in Australia. To get 796 more deaths from covid in Victoria in March and April we would have had to have 796/0.0164 = 48,000 infections, more or less. 800 infections a day, basically.

Is it reasonable to assume that some or all of the voluntary lockdown measures in the first part of March, and the mandated lockdown measures in the second part of March and all of April, prevented 800 infections a day? I think yes, it is. Note: this does not mean all the measures were necessary, it may be that some of them did nothing. If I have a cut and put on a bandaid and a tinfoil hat and stop bleeding, I should not necessarily conclude that tinfoil hats are useful - one or both of the two are useful, we need more than that single piece of data to decide. But we do know that something that was done in March and April made a difference.


For more recent months we don't have the data. As the linked article notes, Australia is unusually bad and slow at reporting and collating this data at a national level. We need to get better at that, because decisions must be informed decisions.


But we already have some other data. For example, other states did not have the same excess deaths we did. Victoria with one-quarter the country's population had one-half the excess deaths. What is different about Victoria? Well, we had the harshest lockdowns, and for the longest. And we've also since had the strongest resurgence of cases.


What else do we know? Well, until the second surge of cases, NZ and Victoria had very similar case and fatality rates. So the March-June data is that stage 4 (NZ version) vs stage 3 (Vic version) doesn't do much. Closing takeaways and Bunnings etc makes no difference. Thus, we can argue about stage 3 in Victoria, but the stage 4 we've been subjected to is punitive merely. Stage 4 is the tinfoil hat stage.


We also know that NZ has had another little bump in cases. Elimination appears to be impossible even for a relatively isolated island nation, so it'll certainly be impossible for the rest of us.


We also have data from Sweden, which has not had excess deaths since the start of July. I would note too that many of the deaths they had were avoidable. They deliberately denied medical care to the elderly because they wanted to keep hospitals free for an expected wave of younger patients who never came. Anticipatory triage. Indeed, they are even engaging in "active euthanasia", killing people against their will.


I would hope that if Australia adopted a Swedish approach to this, we would take some parts, but not others. We would not deny medical care to anyone if we had free hospital beds, and we certainly should not deliberately kill them against their will.


Like the young woman who is thinking about sex with a married man and really deserves to know he's married before she decides, our choices should be informed choices.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3594 on: August 17, 2020, 09:19:33 AM »
So 5M+ cases and 170k+ deaths in the USA and this thread is almost 100% about australia

Jouer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3595 on: August 17, 2020, 11:11:55 AM »
It's pretty difficult because here in Australia we are not economic rationalists like in the U.S.

There is a lot of popular support for the lockdown and the prevailing attitude is that job losses can be filled in with free money from the government and that can be paid off by rich people's taxes later on.

There has been a bit of news about a spike in domestic violence and in calls to our depression hotline but no one seems keen to do the cost/benefit analysis in that sense.

Australians are generally not anti-government like Americans are - as Kyle said, we are a sheeplike people.

I don't mind the curfew and strict lockdown because I think it's worth tolerating for 6 weeks and then getting it over with. I think people will realise after this period is done that most of the really strict measures (especially the job lock-out) are not sustainable and that if these 6 weeks don't fix things we may just have to accept a certain level of infection and death going forward.
The “solution”, if there is one, needs to take into account the local culture.  What works for Australia may well not work in the US. I’m thinking that the first lockdown in the US with the exception of some real hotspots like NYC or Detroit didn’t work out so well. We wrecked our economy to not much benefit and got widespread COVID anyway.

Of course the problem in USA is you didn't really lock down enough or for long enough in many regions. Further, the messaging from gov't wasn't consistent or strong enough. You'd be over the worst of it months ago (at least first wave) if you watched how other countries handled things....but that's not the American Way. And so here you are with way too many deaths AND a hit to the economy.

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3596 on: August 17, 2020, 11:53:32 AM »
So 5M+ cases and 170k+ deaths in the USA and this thread is almost 100% about australia
Honestly I have given up discussing it with anyone, too many off the wall people (locally) with conspiracy theories, political biases or just flat out denial so I just mind my own business and take care of my family.

We tried having a discussion with my father in law yesterday about skipping going back to driving school busses (he is 75 years old with high risk conditions) as his area is pretty bad and he just went into a rant about how things will suddenly change after the election and that Nancy Pelosi, the media and the Democratic states are just making a big deal out of it to win the election and we just need to watch right after the elections Anthony Fauci will change his tune... mumble mumble mumble all of the Democrats just want us to lock everything down and kill the businesses and turn this country into a welfare state where everyone gets everything for free... mumble mumble mumble.

Today was his first day back driving the school buses full of grade and middle school age kids.


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mrs sideways

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3597 on: August 17, 2020, 03:11:26 PM »
Honestly I have given up discussing it with anyone, too many off the wall people (locally) with conspiracy theories, political biases or just flat out denial so I just mind my own business and take care of my family.

We tried having a discussion with my father in law yesterday about skipping going back to driving school busses (he is 75 years old with high risk conditions) as his area is pretty bad and he just went into a rant about how things will suddenly change after the election and that Nancy Pelosi, the media and the Democratic states are just making a big deal out of it to win the election and we just need to watch right after the elections Anthony Fauci will change his tune... mumble mumble mumble all of the Democrats just want us to lock everything down and kill the businesses and turn this country into a welfare state where everyone gets everything for free... mumble mumble mumble.

Today was his first day back driving the school buses full of grade and middle school age kids.

Jesus that's depressing. Best wishes for your family.

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  • Posts: 2140
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3598 on: August 17, 2020, 04:00:04 PM »
Genomic sequencing indicates 99%+ of our second wave cases came from a literal handful of security guards who contracted the disease from infected returning travellers.

It seems the guards were improperly trained and given poor advice about wearing PPE.

There will be evidence given at the inquiry today about how these guards managed to super-spread it to so many people in the community, so quickly. The typical sick person might infect 0, or 1, or 2 of their family members. In such a case you can, via contact tracing, keep a lid on the infections. This is what's been happening in all other states in Australia. E.g. New South Wales has had persistent low level infections and occasional breakouts but they've been able to contact trace without a general lockdown. In Victoria's case for one reason or another the small seed pool unleashed absolute hell. It will be really good to see what went wrong.

I'm still convinced the best way out of lockdown is to open up suburbs one at a time based on community transmission with a 5km travel radius still in place.

Travis

  • Magnum Stache
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  • Posts: 3188
  • Location: South Korea
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3599 on: August 17, 2020, 05:38:40 PM »
So 5M+ cases and 170k+ deaths in the USA and this thread is almost 100% about australia

It's not like much has changed in the US as far as what governments are doing and how people are dealing with it.

If you want some depressing COVID news from closer to home I could screenshot you conversations I've been having with friends at various Army bases that are doing a shit job of enforcing PPE and quarantine.