Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 253660 times)

Gremlin

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 314
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2600 on: June 24, 2020, 10:49:39 PM »
The lack of data from March - April has probably permanently handicapped us from gathering meaningful enough data to make confident forward projections.

I hope this continues to be true.  There's some pretty robust data being generated now.  If the lack of data from March/April has permanently handicapped us from making forward projections this means that we're not going to be needing to be making similar projections in September/October or December/January or March/April 2021.  We can all hope that this is true, but there has to be a chance that the lack of data has only temporarily handicapped us from making confident forward projections.
In the US a ton was missed by missing the first part of the curve. True case counts, IFR, CFR, R(0), peak days, hospital utilization etc were all surmised by incorrect data, which has influenced projections and policies. It has taken months to determine IFR, and guess what it’s way lower than was projected. Even after the CDC published the data, the perception of the older incorrect data continues to be pervasive in the public discourse.

But go ahead and pick the use of one singular word you disagree with and make a pedantic diatribe to demonstrate your smug seniority over the English language because you recognize that a different word could have been used. Save that smugness and savor it whenever you’re feeling the need for a pick me up.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Huh?

If I've interpreted what you've said correctly, then you're saying "we had shit data to start with and now we have better data."

What I said above was "we had shit data to start with and now we have better data.  Let's hope we don't have to use it for forecasting."  Apparently that makes me a wanker.

fuzzy math

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1074
  • Age: 38
  • Location: PNW ---> Midwest (for now)
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2601 on: June 24, 2020, 11:01:22 PM »

Huh?

If I've interpreted what you've said correctly, then you're saying "we had shit data to start with and now we have better data."

What I said above was "we had shit data to start with and now we have better data.  Let's hope we don't have to use it for forecasting."  Apparently that makes me a wanker.

My apologies, I deleted my rant towards you. I thought you were calling me out for my use of the word permanently.

Missy B

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 360
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2602 on: June 24, 2020, 11:18:59 PM »

But I do think that the risk of transmission from incidental social contact is overplayed, and the risk of transmission from indoors, social gatherings is being under-emphasised. The biggest spread events have been dinner parties and weddings.

Yes, I wondered about this today. There's all this emphasis on staying away from people in shopping malls, and I suspect that a lot of that physical distancing between brief random contacts is a lot of effort for nothing - the real risks are people closer in. People fear the grocery store, but spend long hours with family and friends they feel safe with, and get sick.
Our 'spikes' here are mainly institutional - care homes, hospitals and food-packing plants, with 30-member family events-with-a-side-of-COVID type stupidity. So far our province has been able to stay on top of contact tracing. But we're entering phase 3 so they will increase, I expect.

Jack0Life

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 320
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2603 on: June 24, 2020, 11:46:56 PM »
Ah. I assumed since you quoted both of our posts you were replying to both of us.

No sorry! He also deleted his post which leaves me without the troubling graph I was referring to...

If you're referring to me.The graph I posted is in plain site.
Its an attached graph. If you quote it, its not going to show up

efree

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 64
  • Location: Europe
    • My blog about P2P lending
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2604 on: June 25, 2020, 04:44:54 AM »
Many people mention Australia and NZ as the good examples. I want to add that the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) have also got this virus well under control and have mostly opened up. As someone who's living there, I feel very fortunate that our government took it seriously right from the start and that people haven't been acting stupid. I feel sorry for the American people. A competent leader and a coordinated effort across the states would have made this situation so much better.

By the way, very few people wear masks around here. It seems that the chance of a random passer-by infecting you is slim indeed, if not non-existent. The most important thing to do is have a wide-spread quarantine until you get the infection numbers low enough that contact tracing becomes possible. Contact tracing and quarantining as necessary is how you can live with the virus long-term and still have a relatively well functioning economy.

Roland of Gilead

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2127
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2605 on: June 25, 2020, 05:07:31 AM »
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania likely do not have the high tourism that the USA had, which is what started the spread in so many different areas at once.

But cool that you are in one of those countries?  My wife's mother was Latvian.

marty998

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7039
  • Location: Sydney, Oz
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2606 on: June 25, 2020, 05:32:27 AM »
@Bloop Bloop it was apparently a few families celebrating Eid that got together.

They knew they were positive, they were told to self isolate, and they deliberately chose to go against instructions to isolate and IMO it's got nothing to do with being "multicultural" and not understanding. It's a cop out from the governments to suggest that because some of them can't speak English then they wouldn't get that it's a problem.

I'd suggest there's very few people on planet Earth that are unaware there is a pandemic going on. There's no excuse.

Bloop Bloop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2140
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2607 on: June 25, 2020, 06:06:51 AM »
@Bloop Bloop it was apparently a few families celebrating Eid that got together.

They knew they were positive, they were told to self isolate, and they deliberately chose to go against instructions to isolate and IMO it's got nothing to do with being "multicultural" and not understanding. It's a cop out from the governments to suggest that because some of them can't speak English then they wouldn't get that it's a problem.

I'd suggest there's very few people on planet Earth that are unaware there is a pandemic going on. There's no excuse.

Hope they all got fined. Religion should not be an excuse.

LightTripper

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 815
  • Location: London, UK
  • Rural Londoner. Lazy workaholic. Confused.
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2608 on: June 25, 2020, 06:13:26 AM »
I know several people who managed to celebrate Eid without breaking lockdown restrictions (basically in domestic groups, with maybe the odd drive by/wave from front gardens/pavements). 

I really hope they managed to contain it before it got out of control.

OtherJen

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3621
  • Location: Metro Detroit
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2609 on: June 25, 2020, 06:24:37 AM »
I know several people who managed to celebrate Eid without breaking lockdown restrictions (basically in domestic groups, with maybe the odd drive by/wave from front gardens/pavements). 

I really hope they managed to contain it before it got out of control.

Same. Ramadan and Eid are HUGE where I live. Instead of the usual massive iftar dinners, midnight food festivals, and Eid celebrations, there was a Ramadan house decorating contest, virtual mosque services, drive-through charity services, and local celebratory TV programming on Eid. And our local case and death numbers kept dropping and have remained low.

Religious practice is no excuse for being a selfish asshole and knowingly spreading infection. We managed to keep our local case numbers from spiking after Passover, Easter, and Eid because people largely took it seriously.

LWYRUP

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1158
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2610 on: June 25, 2020, 06:31:15 AM »
Many people mention Australia and NZ as the good examples. I want to add that the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) have also got this virus well under control and have mostly opened up. As someone who's living there, I feel very fortunate that our government took it seriously right from the start and that people haven't been acting stupid. I feel sorry for the American people. A competent leader and a coordinated effort across the states would have made this situation so much better.

By the way, very few people wear masks around here. It seems that the chance of a random passer-by infecting you is slim indeed, if not non-existent. The most important thing to do is have a wide-spread quarantine until you get the infection numbers low enough that contact tracing becomes possible. Contact tracing and quarantining as necessary is how you can live with the virus long-term and still have a relatively well functioning economy.

I have to say, I've been sitting in my house since late February other than to go exercise.  We even order groceries.  It's so frustrating that other parts of the country aren't taking this seriously and so this might be the next 1-2 years of my life.  : (

I'm just going to throw out in case anyone works for a governor, that if MD and PA both got together and decided to block off all the roads at their borders (really not that hard, MD's borders are bay / river and PA's Ohio border is very rural) then we could create a "Northeast Consortium" protecting the states north of us and just block everyone else from coming in unless they quarantine...

OtherJen

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3621
  • Location: Metro Detroit
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2611 on: June 25, 2020, 06:42:15 AM »
Many people mention Australia and NZ as the good examples. I want to add that the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) have also got this virus well under control and have mostly opened up. As someone who's living there, I feel very fortunate that our government took it seriously right from the start and that people haven't been acting stupid. I feel sorry for the American people. A competent leader and a coordinated effort across the states would have made this situation so much better.

By the way, very few people wear masks around here. It seems that the chance of a random passer-by infecting you is slim indeed, if not non-existent. The most important thing to do is have a wide-spread quarantine until you get the infection numbers low enough that contact tracing becomes possible. Contact tracing and quarantining as necessary is how you can live with the virus long-term and still have a relatively well functioning economy.

I have to say, I've been sitting in my house since late February other than to go exercise.  We even order groceries.  It's so frustrating that other parts of the country aren't taking this seriously and so this might be the next 1-2 years of my life.  : (

I'm just going to throw out in case anyone works for a governor, that if MD and PA both got together and decided to block off all the roads at their borders (really not that hard, MD's borders are bay / river and PA's Ohio border is very rural) then we could create a "Northeast Consortium" protecting the states north of us and just block everyone else from coming in unless they quarantine...

I would love to do this in Michigan. Just road-block the ends of the peninsulas. The international borders are already closed.

2sk22

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 512
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2612 on: June 25, 2020, 07:15:00 AM »
I know several people who managed to celebrate Eid without breaking lockdown restrictions (basically in domestic groups, with maybe the odd drive by/wave from front gardens/pavements). 

I really hope they managed to contain it before it got out of control.

Same. Ramadan and Eid are HUGE where I live. Instead of the usual massive iftar dinners, midnight food festivals, and Eid celebrations, there was a Ramadan house decorating contest, virtual mosque services, drive-through charity services, and local celebratory TV programming on Eid. And our local case and death numbers kept dropping and have remained low.

Religious practice is no excuse for being a selfish asshole and knowingly spreading infection. We managed to keep our local case numbers from spiking after Passover, Easter, and Eid because people largely took it seriously.

I live in a neighborhood that is mostly orthodox Jewish here in NJ. Normally on Sabbath (ie Saturday) big groups of people walk to a synagogue down our street to attend prayers. After Covid struck, they have been extremely diligent about following all guidelines and there have been no big gatherings at all. Same story in the muslim neighborhood a few blocks away. I live in an interesting area to say the least :-)

Gremlin

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 314
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2613 on: June 26, 2020, 12:05:13 AM »

Huh?

If I've interpreted what you've said correctly, then you're saying "we had shit data to start with and now we have better data."

What I said above was "we had shit data to start with and now we have better data.  Let's hope we don't have to use it for forecasting."  Apparently that makes me a wanker.
My apologies, I deleted my rant towards you. I thought you were calling me out for my use of the word permanently.
Appreciate it.  No poor intent on my behalf at all.

Gremlin

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 314
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2614 on: June 26, 2020, 12:18:12 AM »
@Bloop Bloop it was apparently a few families celebrating Eid that got together.

They knew they were positive, they were told to self isolate, and they deliberately chose to go against instructions to isolate and IMO it's got nothing to do with being "multicultural" and not understanding. It's a cop out from the governments to suggest that because some of them can't speak English then they wouldn't get that it's a problem.

I'd suggest there's very few people on planet Earth that are unaware there is a pandemic going on. There's no excuse.
I understand that this is true for ONE of the Victorian clusters.  Not so clearly called out in the Murdoch media is that another cluster has caused the temporary closure and deep cleaning for several Catholic schools.  Anyone else wonder about the difference in media exposure between the two?

Kyle Schuant

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1297
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2615 on: June 26, 2020, 04:22:05 AM »
And again, the most important question is: where did the initial infection come from? who was patient zero of that cluster?

In each case, it was someone working as a security guard in a quarantine hotel. How were they infected? Because of a lack of PPE and hygiene training. Which is the fault of the state government.

If you see the dominoes falling, is the real cause the first domino being knocked over, or the tenth? Government incompetence has been the engine of the covid machine in Australia.

Hula Hoop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1476
  • Location: Italy
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2616 on: June 26, 2020, 11:06:20 AM »
What are all your thoughts about outdoor gatherings in parks and outdoor tables at bars?  We suffered a long and difficult lock down here in Italy (much stricter than any other country apart from China as we weren't allowed to exercise or walk outside and parks were closed).  Lately, I've been to a couple of kids' birthday parties in parks and I met some friends at some outside tables at a bar last week.  Everyone eventually removed their masks although we stayed quite far from eachother - at last one meter.  We have to wear masks when inside in public places (inside businesses or public transport) but when we're outside we're allowed to remove our masks but still have to follow social distancing guidelines.

Our numbers here in southern Italy are now quite low but I still feel nervous about outdoor gatherings.  We tried to keep the kids socially distanced on bikes and having water pistol fights in the park but, inevitably, they got close to eachother.

OtherJen

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3621
  • Location: Metro Detroit
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2617 on: June 26, 2020, 11:12:12 AM »
What are all your thoughts about outdoor gatherings in parks and outdoor tables at bars?  We suffered a long and difficult lock down here in Italy (much stricter than any other country apart from China as we weren't allowed to exercise or walk outside and parks were closed).  Lately, I've been to a couple of kids' birthday parties in parks and I met some friends at some outside tables at a bar last week.  Everyone eventually removed their masks although we stayed quite far from eachother - at last one meter.  We have to wear masks when inside in public places (inside businesses or public transport) but when we're outside we're allowed to remove our masks but still have to follow social distancing guidelines.

Our numbers here in southern Italy are now quite low but I still feel nervous about outdoor gatherings.  We tried to keep the kids socially distanced on bikes and having water pistol fights in the park but, inevitably, they got close to eachother.

We've been to one bar patio on a quiet afternoon. The staff was masked and careful, the tables were all spaced far apart, there were signs everywhere about not crowding or moving the tables, and the bathroom stall doors had been removed and a lock installed on the inside of the main bathroom door so only one person would use it at a time. We felt comfortable and will go back, but only when it is not crowded. I would also not have a problem meeting with a small group of friends at a park, if everyone brought their own food/drinks.

It would be much harder with kids.

frugalnacho

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4220
  • Age: 37
  • Location: Madison Heights, Michigan
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2618 on: June 26, 2020, 11:52:02 AM »
Neighbors were out in full force yesterday, 18 strong.  Drinking, playing cornhole, kids playing tag, blowing bubbles, high fives, standing 2 feet apart.  At least they are outside?

My wife has completely let her guard down.  She's meeting with friends and neighbors and family on a regular basis again.  She asked me yesterday if I thought it was ok if she starts doing the grocery shopping with our 2 year old.  We are apparently going to her parents for dinner this weekend, and then to a friend's house on sunday, then we are having a few people over for dinner on Monday. I know the numbers in michigan are down and everyone is starting to relax, but she's ready to jump right back into the before times, and so is everyone else.  Mask usage and social distancing are dropping noticeably at my workplace.  I know everyone is getting "quarantine fatigue", but I don't know if this is the appropriate response to it.  I think it's probably fine for us to start meeting up with some people again in outdoor settings and still attempting to practice social distancing...but that's not what's happening.  Everyone is straight up done with the coronavirus.   

chemistk

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 709
  • Location: Mid-Atlantic
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2619 on: June 26, 2020, 12:17:29 PM »
What are all your thoughts about outdoor gatherings in parks and outdoor tables at bars?  We suffered a long and difficult lock down here in Italy (much stricter than any other country apart from China as we weren't allowed to exercise or walk outside and parks were closed).  Lately, I've been to a couple of kids' birthday parties in parks and I met some friends at some outside tables at a bar last week.  Everyone eventually removed their masks although we stayed quite far from eachother - at last one meter.  We have to wear masks when inside in public places (inside businesses or public transport) but when we're outside we're allowed to remove our masks but still have to follow social distancing guidelines.

Our numbers here in southern Italy are now quite low but I still feel nervous about outdoor gatherings.  We tried to keep the kids socially distanced on bikes and having water pistol fights in the park but, inevitably, they got close to eachother.

We've been going outside with our kids pretty regularly, but we've been following all the appropriate protocols. We've been to the playground 6 or 7 times now, we recently joined our local pool and have gone at least 7 times, we've been seeing my in-laws regularly, and we are friends with a local family that we get together with weekly.

My wife's been to the bar, twice, with a good friend of hers but it was outdoor seating and they sat as far from each other as the table would allow.

Where necessary, we wear masks and maintain distance (well, our kids certainly don't). If you look at what's happened here in the States with the innumerable protests, the early consensus is that they did not further the spread of the virus. It's still just a little premature to come to that full conclusion but I think the general evidence suggests that outdoor activity is far less likely to transmit the virus than more closed forms of interaction. Obviously it's not 100% virus-proof (outdoor activity), but it does seem to be a heck of a lot safer than alternatives.

This is the risk level we, as a family, have chosen to take. Simply put, our mental health (collectively, all of us non-infants in our household) deteriorated so much during the stay-at-home orders that the risk of contracting the virus is more appealing than keeping ourselves (especially our boys) locked inside every day. I can't get my youngest two to wear a mask and our oldest just doesn't grasp the concept of social distancing (among many other things), so we are going to limit their interactions to outdoor activity. I think participating in outdoor activities where it's possible to stay a distance from people and to not share too many surfaces is reasonable. If everyone is wearing masks, then I'd say that's about as good as it's going to get in places that don;t eradicate the virus.

Shane

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1296
  • Location: PA
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2620 on: June 26, 2020, 12:33:13 PM »
Many people mention Australia and NZ as the good examples. I want to add that the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) have also got this virus well under control and have mostly opened up. As someone who's living there, I feel very fortunate that our government took it seriously right from the start and that people haven't been acting stupid. I feel sorry for the American people. A competent leader and a coordinated effort across the states would have made this situation so much better.

By the way, very few people wear masks around here. It seems that the chance of a random passer-by infecting you is slim indeed, if not non-existent. The most important thing to do is have a wide-spread quarantine until you get the infection numbers low enough that contact tracing becomes possible. Contact tracing and quarantining as necessary is how you can live with the virus long-term and still have a relatively well functioning economy.

I have to say, I've been sitting in my house since late February other than to go exercise.  We even order groceries.  It's so frustrating that other parts of the country aren't taking this seriously and so this might be the next 1-2 years of my life.  : (

I'm just going to throw out in case anyone works for a governor, that if MD and PA both got together and decided to block off all the roads at their borders (really not that hard, MD's borders are bay / river and PA's Ohio border is very rural) then we could create a "Northeast Consortium" protecting the states north of us and just block everyone else from coming in unless they quarantine...

Lol, Only problem is it wouldn't be legal. Why worry about that, though, eh?

sui generis

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1675
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2621 on: June 26, 2020, 12:59:18 PM »
What are all your thoughts about outdoor gatherings in parks and outdoor tables at bars?  We suffered a long and difficult lock down here in Italy (much stricter than any other country apart from China as we weren't allowed to exercise or walk outside and parks were closed).  Lately, I've been to a couple of kids' birthday parties in parks and I met some friends at some outside tables at a bar last week.  Everyone eventually removed their masks although we stayed quite far from eachother - at last one meter.  We have to wear masks when inside in public places (inside businesses or public transport) but when we're outside we're allowed to remove our masks but still have to follow social distancing guidelines.

Our numbers here in southern Italy are now quite low but I still feel nervous about outdoor gatherings.  We tried to keep the kids socially distanced on bikes and having water pistol fights in the park but, inevitably, they got close to eachother.

I think the best evidence we have shows that outdoor, non-crowded gatherings with masks are not a big concern.  I have now seen several articles reporting on how there has NOT been a spike in cases from the protests here in America that started up almost a month ago, and that it's largely because the protestors were vigilant about masks.  I can tell you there is no being vigilant about distancing at a protest.  So it must be that masks are quite effective. 

For myself, if the outdoors is not crowded, I feel comfortable without a mask, and if within 6 feet of others for an ongoing period of time (i.e. not passing one person on the street), I would be masked.  I had dinner with friends last weekend in a friend's backyard where we all maintained at least 6 feet.  Obviously we were not masked since we were eating and drinking.  I feel as confident as it is possible to be with this still "new" virus that a a mask or distance or both when outdoors is quite effective.  I don't think there's been any tracing of cases to situations where people have been masked and/or at distance outdoors where there was spread.

Michael in ABQ

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1095
    • Military Saints
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2622 on: June 26, 2020, 03:05:34 PM »
My family has been in their bubble along with my wife's parents for 3+ months now. The plan is to keep it up until the kids go back to school in the fall. Groceries are all delivered and basically no interaction with anyone else. My wife's parents are around 70 and once our kids go back to school they're going to stay in quarantine so no more visits to their house or vice versa. Meanwhile I'm in my own bubble while deployed - though we'll still go through a two-week quarantine when we get back to the U.S., even though we've been isolated on a base for months.

Roland of Gilead

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2127
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2623 on: June 26, 2020, 04:30:54 PM »
D&D group (6 people total) in a rural area with just a couple of old cases of COVID, yet our state says everyone must wear a mask pretty much everywhere.

Would you comply?

Hula Hoop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1476
  • Location: Italy
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2624 on: June 26, 2020, 04:36:22 PM »
Neighbors were out in full force yesterday, 18 strong.  Drinking, playing cornhole, kids playing tag, blowing bubbles, high fives, standing 2 feet apart.  At least they are outside?

My wife has completely let her guard down.  She's meeting with friends and neighbors and family on a regular basis again.  She asked me yesterday if I thought it was ok if she starts doing the grocery shopping with our 2 year old.  We are apparently going to her parents for dinner this weekend, and then to a friend's house on sunday, then we are having a few people over for dinner on Monday. I know the numbers in michigan are down and everyone is starting to relax, but she's ready to jump right back into the before times, and so is everyone else.  Mask usage and social distancing are dropping noticeably at my workplace.  I know everyone is getting "quarantine fatigue", but I don't know if this is the appropriate response to it.  I think it's probably fine for us to start meeting up with some people again in outdoor settings and still attempting to practice social distancing...but that's not what's happening.  Everyone is straight up done with the coronavirus.

From what I've been reading in the news, the US is still a hot mess.  This is seriously scary. 

As I mentioned above I've been going to a few outdoor social gatherings but we haven't done anything indoors since before we were locked down in early March and I'm working from home.  I was invited to an indoor gathering recently but declined.

Our numbers are much lower here in Italy than they are in the US.  It sounds like people are seriously in denial over there and unwilling to do the hard work - at least in some areas.

LWYRUP

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1158
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2625 on: June 26, 2020, 04:42:19 PM »
@Hula Hoop, I usually am a defender of America in many ways but your post is spot on and there's not much more I can add.

And this is not like back in March when many were taken by surprise this has been known by all for months, it's simply a complete cultural failure.  It's quite distressing and there will be much suffering as a result.

OtherJen

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3621
  • Location: Metro Detroit
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2626 on: June 26, 2020, 04:56:16 PM »
@Hula Hoop, I usually am a defender of America in many ways but your post is spot on and there's not much more I can add.

And this is not like back in March when many were taken by surprise this has been known by all for months, it's simply a complete cultural failure.  It's quite distressing and there will be much suffering as a result.

Yes. As a society, we are selfish and have apparently decided that challenges are too difficult to solve and therefore we should do nothing. It's shameful.

American GenX

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 482
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2627 on: June 26, 2020, 06:11:29 PM »
From what I've been reading in the news, the US is still a hot mess.

I wouldn't say the entire U.S. is a hot mess.  Some major regions are, and some other large regions aren't.  My state is getting progressively better and is opening up more, and there's been no surge in cases.  Other states are different stories.  It looks like the worst of it is in the south and the west, with more cases lately among younger people.

LWYRUP

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1158
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2628 on: June 26, 2020, 06:17:27 PM »
From what I've been reading in the news, the US is still a hot mess.

I wouldn't say the entire U.S. is a hot mess.  Some major regions are, and some other large regions aren't.  My state is getting progressively better and is opening up more, and there's been no surge in cases.  Other states are different stories.  It looks like the worst of it is in the south and the west, with more cases lately among younger people.

Yeah, but it's not going to just stay in those states.  People travel, and so it will keep spreading from these places.  It's a fundamental collective action problem, which is something our culture sucks at.  Each person taking a risk isn't taking just their own risk.  They are endangering everyone.  And, as a result, those of us that have locked down are now stuck in the same mess with no end in sight. 
« Last Edit: June 26, 2020, 06:22:50 PM by LWYRUP »

AnnaGrowsAMustache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1919
  • Location: Noo Zilind
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2629 on: June 26, 2020, 06:27:54 PM »
D&D group (6 people total) in a rural area with just a couple of old cases of COVID, yet our state says everyone must wear a mask pretty much everywhere.

Would you comply?

Do you stop at red lights even when you can't see any traffic?

deborah

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 10839
  • Location: Australia or another awesome area
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2630 on: June 26, 2020, 06:29:18 PM »
It also depends on what level of cases people worry about. One state here has recently gone up to double digits of cases (ie more than 10) a day, and every other state is calling them a hot spot. They've called in the military to assist. They are door knocking all the houses in the suburbs where the outbreaks are occurring and testing all residents in these suburbs.

This excludes people coming back from overseas who are being immediately quarantined for 14 days in hotels and who often seem to have positive tests (about 65% of all cases here have been from overseas). We're still at 4 deaths per million including cases acquired overseas, and had the first death for several weeks yesterday. By our reckoning, I suspect that every US state is a hot spot.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1919
  • Location: Noo Zilind
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2631 on: June 26, 2020, 06:45:31 PM »
It also depends on what level of cases people worry about. One state here has recently gone up to double digits of cases (ie more than 10) a day, and every other state is calling them a hot spot. They've called in the military to assist. They are door knocking all the houses in the suburbs where the outbreaks are occurring and testing all residents in these suburbs.

This excludes people coming back from overseas who are being immediately quarantined for 14 days in hotels and who often seem to have positive tests (about 65% of all cases here have been from overseas). We're still at 4 deaths per million including cases acquired overseas, and had the first death for several weeks yesterday. By our reckoning, I suspect that every US state is a hot spot.


I think this comes down to whether or not people understand how a virus increases. 10 cases today is 2000 in a weeks time. I remember telling a friend that covid was a pandemic, regardless of what the WHO said at the time, because the USA alone had 20,000 cases (at the time). He looked at me like I was insane and spouted the usual population stats. Those population stats don't matter a bean when you're talking about unfettered community spread and exponential growth. By the time those type of people would start caring about numbers, you're really in the final phases - it can't be slowed down or stopped. And that's where the USA is now. There's no hope whatsoever of testing, tracing contacts and isolating infected people for the the USA as a whole. There's some hope that small areas might mitigate things in their areas still - but only if they can grasp the fact that even one or two community transmission cases are worth getting extremely proactive about.

In NZ, some small rural communities set up manned road blocks into their areas. Highly illegal, and the police were on hand monitoring what went on, but it was essentially allowed because that's how bad this crap is. We went into lockdown nationally shortly after. I'm not suggesting that small american towns do that, but I'd sure as hell be stopping people and taking contact details if I was running one of those small towns.

OtherJen

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3621
  • Location: Metro Detroit
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2632 on: June 26, 2020, 07:19:44 PM »
Almost 3 months of shutdown, and bar kids might squander it all:

Michigan bars worry as East Lansing bar’s coronavirus tally tops 70 cases


bigblock440

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 212
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2633 on: June 26, 2020, 08:29:32 PM »

I think this comes down to whether or not people understand how a virus increases. 10 cases today is 2000 in a weeks time. I remember telling a friend that covid was a pandemic, regardless of what the WHO said at the time, because the USA alone had 20,000 cases (at the time). He looked at me like I was insane and spouted the usual population stats.

You called it a pandemic a week and a half after the WHO did, and your friend thought you were crazy? 

I agree with the rest of your post, it's too late to stop it.  If we'd have quarantined New York, the cases would have been so much lower, and probably zero in quite a few areas.

Bloop Bloop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2140
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2634 on: June 26, 2020, 09:26:03 PM »
We here in Victoria, Australia have a situation where there is still community transmission at a fairly low level but the state is opening up. We've unfortunately had to cut the indoors limit from 50 people to 20 people but that still allows most small restaurants and bars to open.

Last night I went to a couple of wine bars and it was pretty much business as usual. The first was a popular bar and I'm certain the 20 person limit wasn't being followed (not that I was gonna call the cops, you know. They're doing their best to survive and I was happy to support them.) Yes, we had to write down names and numbers when going in for contact tracing purposes, but there wasn't a lot of social distancing. Young people at a bar who are going on dates and ordering wine ain't gonna social distance. That's just the nature of things, you know?

Actually the electricity went out completely and it was pitch black and we had to resort to each table having a candle, which made it nice and romantic but definitely didn't help for social distancing haha. Not that I was complaining.

When you have a disease that mainly targets the elderly (or at least here in Australia it seems to only cause permanent damage in middle-aged and elderly individuals) and when you have a young populace that's been locked down for 3 months, it's just difficult to enforce. That's human nature.

I'll be bar hopping again tonight and will report back on whether other places are doing social distancing or not.

Abe

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1658
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2635 on: June 26, 2020, 10:25:30 PM »
So far no spikes in deaths. Will see how much lag there is. Our hospital may shut down non-emergency care soon (very few ICU beds left), as may others in the SoCal area. Similar situation in AZ, Houston and southern FL. ICU capacity is at a very high level in these areas. Other areas seem OK for now. If these are isolated spikes we'll be alright, but I doubt they will be.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2020, 10:34:35 PM by Abe »

Mr. Green

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2480
  • Age: 37
  • Location: Wilmington, NC
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2636 on: June 26, 2020, 10:35:54 PM »
So far no spikes in deaths. Will see how much lag there is. Our hospital may shut down non-emergency care soon (very few ICU beds left), as may others in the area. Similar situation in AZ and TX. ICU capacity is at a critical level in these areas. Others seem OK for now.
I read an article (paywall) based on numbers from the UK indicating that people hospitalized now are 4x less likely to die than those admitted in April simply because we've learned what helps people more and found some drugs that will help slow the spread of the disease into the body. Yet another huge reason to flatten the curve for a new virus. The more we learn, the more we'll be able to prevent the worst case scenario (death).

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/25/oxford-university-analysis-coronavirus-death-rate-hospitals/
« Last Edit: June 26, 2020, 10:38:38 PM by Mr. Green »

Jack0Life

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 320
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2637 on: June 26, 2020, 10:52:42 PM »
D&D group (6 people total) in a rural area with just a couple of old cases of COVID, yet our state says everyone must wear a mask pretty much everywhere.

Would you comply?

If I was inside a store, absolutely YES even if there is no one inside the store.
If droplets from my mouth or nose happened to fall on a product inside a store and the next person touch that, that person can easily transmit it to the next 10 people. If I keep all my droplets inside my mask, I doing my part.

Bloop Bloop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2140
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2638 on: June 26, 2020, 10:54:15 PM »
D&D group (6 people total) in a rural area with just a couple of old cases of COVID, yet our state says everyone must wear a mask pretty much everywhere.

Would you comply?

If I was inside a store, absolutely YES even if there is no one inside the store.
If droplets from my mouth or nose happened to fall on a product inside a store and the next person touch that, that person can easily transmit it to the next 10 people. If I keep all my droplets inside my mask, I doing my part.

I wouldn't comply. Risk/benefit analysis would militate against it if there are only a couple of cases in the state.

I mean, I don't get a flu vaccination each winter either. Same sort of situation except I'd say the risk/benefit is probably more slanted towards getting the vaccine given the prevalence of flu.

Mr. Green

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2480
  • Age: 37
  • Location: Wilmington, NC
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2639 on: June 26, 2020, 11:06:32 PM »
I mean, I don't get a flu vaccination each winter either. Same sort of situation except I'd say the risk/benefit is probably more slanted towards getting the vaccine given the prevalence of flu.
What's the risk in getting a flu vaccine each year? Anaphylactic reaction maybe? You can get allergy tested for that if it's a concern. I had to after a mild reaction to my first flu vaccine two years ago. The reward of the vaccine is supposed to be a less intense case of flu if you get one of the strains it's good for due to already having antibodies. Worst case is you get no flu and the vaccine did nothing. Is there more downside?

Bloop Bloop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2140
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2640 on: June 26, 2020, 11:17:41 PM »
I mean, I don't get a flu vaccination each winter either. Same sort of situation except I'd say the risk/benefit is probably more slanted towards getting the vaccine given the prevalence of flu.
What's the risk in getting a flu vaccine each year? Anaphylactic reaction maybe? You can get allergy tested for that if it's a concern. I had to after a mild reaction to my first flu vaccine two years ago. The reward of the vaccine is supposed to be a less intense case of flu if you get one of the strains it's good for due to already having antibodies. Worst case is you get no flu and the vaccine did nothing. Is there more downside?

The risk is non-existent. I should have phrased it as cost/benefit not risk/benefit. The cost is $40 and a bit of discomfort and some time taken out of my day to visit the clinic. The benefit is not getting the flu, but having gotten the flu before, while it's nasty, it's probably only 100 times worse than the effort/annoyance associated with getting a vaccination. And I figure my yearly chance of getting the flu is <1/100. Plus I'm just lazy. I only have so much willpower and I'm not able to optimise every aspect of my health and I'm going to try to reserve the willpower for where I think I can get most bang for buck. I mean, I don't manage to get 30 minutes of exercise each day either and if I had to allocate my willpower points it would be towards that, first. Pobody's nerfect!

Once I get older I think I'll get a yearly flu shot, the same way now I have been careful about things like eating better and watching blood pressure etc.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2020, 11:20:31 PM by Bloop Bloop »

Physicsteacher

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 552
  • Age: 34
  • Location: Arkansas
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2641 on: June 27, 2020, 06:17:07 AM »
D&D group (6 people total) in a rural area with just a couple of old cases of COVID, yet our state says everyone must wear a mask pretty much everywhere.

Would you comply?

I would.

D&D group (6 people total) in a rural area with just a couple of old cases of COVID, yet our state says everyone must wear a mask pretty much everywhere.

Would you comply?

If I was inside a store, absolutely YES even if there is no one inside the store.
If droplets from my mouth or nose happened to fall on a product inside a store and the next person touch that, that person can easily transmit it to the next 10 people. If I keep all my droplets inside my mask, I doing my part.

I wouldn't comply. Risk/benefit analysis would militate against it if there are only a couple of cases in the state.

I mean, I don't get a flu vaccination each winter either. Same sort of situation except I'd say the risk/benefit is probably more slanted towards getting the vaccine given the prevalence of flu.

Would you be willing to share more about your cost/benefit analysis for face coverings?

The monetary cost is minimal. A face covering can be made in a couple of minutes if you have a bandana or old t-shirt. If you prefer a commercial option, Old Navy has cloth masks for $12.50 for a five pack. My preferred masks are $20 for a two pack from Purple, which is considerably more expensive but still not a significant financial burden.

The non-financial costs are more subjective. It takes perhaps ten minutes to either make a face covering (including a generous estimate of time to gather supplies from around the house) or order some. I already have to do laundry so tossing masks in the washer with dirty clothes and hanging them to dry adds maybe a minute to my weekly routine. Mask wearing isn't something I look forward to, but with nice, well-fitting masks, it is a minor annoyance.

The benefits are primarily for others, not the mask wearer. How much do you value helping ensure that your area doesn't develop a surge of new cases if a few people become infected? We're starting to see states reimpose stricter rules as case counts increase, and your odds of getting to keep meeting with friends in public rather than having to switch to Roll20 for weeks or months to come are better if the populace complies with the mask mandate.

RetiredAt63

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 13951
  • Location: Eastern Ontario, Canada
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2642 on: June 27, 2020, 06:18:22 AM »
D&D group (6 people total) in a rural area with just a couple of old cases of COVID, yet our state says everyone must wear a mask pretty much everywhere.

Would you comply?

If I was inside a store, absolutely YES even if there is no one inside the store.
If droplets from my mouth or nose happened to fall on a product inside a store and the next person touch that, that person can easily transmit it to the next 10 people. If I keep all my droplets inside my mask, I doing my part.

I wouldn't comply. Risk/benefit analysis would militate against it if there are only a couple of cases in the state.

I mean, I don't get a flu vaccination each winter either. Same sort of situation except I'd say the risk/benefit is probably more slanted towards getting the vaccine given the prevalence of flu.

I would.  It prevents me from shedding droplets that might be infectious, and it also gives me some protection from previous shoppers whose potentially  infectious droplets could still be in the air.

OtherJen

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3621
  • Location: Metro Detroit
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2643 on: June 27, 2020, 06:25:44 AM »
D&D group (6 people total) in a rural area with just a couple of old cases of COVID, yet our state says everyone must wear a mask pretty much everywhere.

Would you comply?

Yes. In March, one person unknowingly brought COVID-19 into a restaurant in a rural northern Michigan county (pop. 25,000) and infected several other patrons that night, who then went on to infect several dozen others. It only takes one person.

Kris

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5668
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2644 on: June 27, 2020, 06:52:28 AM »
D&D group (6 people total) in a rural area with just a couple of old cases of COVID, yet our state says everyone must wear a mask pretty much everywhere.

Would you comply?

Yes. In March, one person unknowingly brought COVID-19 into a restaurant in a rural northern Michigan county (pop. 25,000) and infected several other patrons that night, who then went on to infect several dozen others. It only takes one person.

Is it just me, or are the people saying they wouldn’t wear a mask generally giving the excuse “I’m not that likely to get it, so why should I wear a mask?” while the people who say they would are saying “Yes, so that I don’t infect others” (which is the actual main point of wearing a mask)?

Physicsteacher

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 552
  • Age: 34
  • Location: Arkansas
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2645 on: June 27, 2020, 07:05:42 AM »
D&D group (6 people total) in a rural area with just a couple of old cases of COVID, yet our state says everyone must wear a mask pretty much everywhere.

Would you comply?

Yes. In March, one person unknowingly brought COVID-19 into a restaurant in a rural northern Michigan county (pop. 25,000) and infected several other patrons that night, who then went on to infect several dozen others. It only takes one person.

Is it just me, or are the people saying they wouldn’t wear a mask generally giving the excuse “I’m not that likely to get it, so why should I wear a mask?” while the people who say they would are saying “Yes, so that I don’t infect others” (which is the actual main point of wearing a mask)?

It isn't just you.

OtherJen

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3621
  • Location: Metro Detroit
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2646 on: June 27, 2020, 07:10:34 AM »
D&D group (6 people total) in a rural area with just a couple of old cases of COVID, yet our state says everyone must wear a mask pretty much everywhere.

Would you comply?

Yes. In March, one person unknowingly brought COVID-19 into a restaurant in a rural northern Michigan county (pop. 25,000) and infected several other patrons that night, who then went on to infect several dozen others. It only takes one person.

Is it just me, or are the people saying they wouldn’t wear a mask generally giving the excuse “I’m not that likely to get it, so why should I wear a mask?” while the people who say they would are saying “Yes, so that I don’t infect others” (which is the actual main point of wearing a mask)?

It isn't just you.

Definitely not just you.

ROF Expat

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 290
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2647 on: June 27, 2020, 07:53:39 AM »
D&D group (6 people total) in a rural area with just a couple of old cases of COVID, yet our state says everyone must wear a mask pretty much everywhere.

Would you comply?

Yes. In March, one person unknowingly brought COVID-19 into a restaurant in a rural northern Michigan county (pop. 25,000) and infected several other patrons that night, who then went on to infect several dozen others. It only takes one person.

Is it just me, or are the people saying they wouldn’t wear a mask generally giving the excuse “I’m not that likely to get it, so why should I wear a mask?” while the people who say they would are saying “Yes, so that I don’t infect others” (which is the actual main point of wearing a mask)?

Exactly.  If you are personally at risk, wearing a mask is for yourself.  If you are not personally at risk, wearing a mask is essentially an altruistic act.  I am not personally worried about getting Covid-19, but I am very concerned for my elderly parents.  I wear a mask to help prevent spread to people like my parents who might be vulnerable and hope others will do the same.  IMHO, anybody who thinks wearing a mask in public is a great hardship has probably led a pretty sheltered life.   

OtherJen

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3621
  • Location: Metro Detroit
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2648 on: June 27, 2020, 08:02:07 AM »
D&D group (6 people total) in a rural area with just a couple of old cases of COVID, yet our state says everyone must wear a mask pretty much everywhere.

Would you comply?

Yes. In March, one person unknowingly brought COVID-19 into a restaurant in a rural northern Michigan county (pop. 25,000) and infected several other patrons that night, who then went on to infect several dozen others. It only takes one person.

Is it just me, or are the people saying they wouldn’t wear a mask generally giving the excuse “I’m not that likely to get it, so why should I wear a mask?” while the people who say they would are saying “Yes, so that I don’t infect others” (which is the actual main point of wearing a mask)?

Exactly.  If you are personally at risk, wearing a mask is for yourself.  If you are not personally at risk, wearing a mask is essentially an altruistic act.  I am not personally worried about getting Covid-19, but I am very concerned for my elderly parents.  I wear a mask to help prevent spread to people like my parents who might be vulnerable and hope others will do the same. IMHO, anybody who thinks wearing a mask in public is a great hardship has probably led a pretty sheltered life.

(Emphasis mine.) I agree completely. My 80-year-old aunt just wore a mask through the funeral mass held for her husband of 55 years. My friend will have to give birth in a mask this fall, as have millions of women this year. My mother and husband and millions of other people work in masks every day for multiple hours. No one likes it, but the continued whining about wearing masks in public indoor places is reminiscent of toddlers.

former player

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5813
  • Location: Avalon
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2649 on: June 27, 2020, 09:29:39 AM »
D&D group (6 people total) in a rural area with just a couple of old cases of COVID, yet our state says everyone must wear a mask pretty much everywhere.

Would you comply?

Yes. In March, one person unknowingly brought COVID-19 into a restaurant in a rural northern Michigan county (pop. 25,000) and infected several other patrons that night, who then went on to infect several dozen others. It only takes one person.

Is it just me, or are the people saying they wouldn’t wear a mask generally giving the excuse “I’m not that likely to get it, so why should I wear a mask?” while the people who say they would are saying “Yes, so that I don’t infect others” (which is the actual main point of wearing a mask)?
The first lot are reframing it away from their own selfishness.  Do they know that's what they are doing?  I don't know and I don't much care, as long as I don't run into any of them in real life.