Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 253743 times)

nereo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1100 on: April 24, 2020, 11:23:18 AM »

Yes I am by no means saying it is a golden bullet, but sunlight, higher temp and higher humidity all contribute to lowering the R0 of viruses.

I am just thinking an infected exterior door handle, after X amount of time in the sun it will lower the probability of passing the virus.
Correction:  higher temp and higher humidity lower the R0 of SOME viruses.  Others actually become more virulent in warm, humid environments.

Also, the door handle is a good example on why people should not rely too heavily on the sterilization of UV.  Yes, viruses on the  upper surface of a doorknob may be "killed", but you still have the under-side and doorknobs not in direct sun to deal with.  UV won't help there.  Or as Tass hinted at earlier, UV rays are good at destroying things in a 2D petri-dish, but objects in the real world are rarely flat and perpendicular to direct sun.

Fantastic information, thank you.

What is the proper term btw of a virus that has been "killed"
GuitarStv beat me to it.  Typically we talk about reduction in virulence, particularly if its not 100%. Denatured or deactivated when the likelihood or replication is at/near zero.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1101 on: April 24, 2020, 11:57:32 AM »
My country's president has talked about injecting people with disinfectant to cure the virus. If that shows promise, you could convince me to open up sooner rather than later.

nereo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1102 on: April 24, 2020, 12:07:05 PM »
My country's president has talked about injecting people with disinfectant to cure the virus. If that shows promise, you could convince me to open up sooner rather than later.

Well **technically** - injecting infected people with large doses of said disinfectant will reduce the spread from that individual, and similarly injecting healthy people will protect them from becoming infected... because the patient will die.

and as we all know, dead people don't touch their face or breathe.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1103 on: April 24, 2020, 12:28:57 PM »
My country's president has talked about injecting people with disinfectant to cure the virus. If that shows promise, you could convince me to open up sooner rather than later.

Well **technically** - injecting infected people with large doses of said disinfectant will reduce the spread from that individual, and similarly injecting healthy people will protect them from becoming infected... because the patient will die.

and as we all know, dead people don't touch their face or breathe.

True!!

T-Money$

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1104 on: April 24, 2020, 01:07:45 PM »
The goal of public policy has changed multiple times throughout the pandemic.  The initial goal of reducing impact and overcapacity on the medical system has been met in my state (hospitals are currently less than half full).  The next goal of anti-body testing has produced some great data, but it was almost immediately discredited in the media and by politicians.

The new goal to open up is reported to be a decline in the amount of cases.  Amount of cases is totally dependent on how much testing is done.  How much testing is done is largely up to the government.  Testing nobody would result in 0 new cases.  As the pandemic wanes increasing testing would show many more new cases -- thus giving a reason to continue current policy even as the virus risk decreases. 

The government has an enormous amount of power and looking at how they are using statistics and science I don't think they are basing their policies on data or the scientific method.  This gives them opportunity to base policy on emotion without acknowledging such.   Perhaps the virus will decline with time through mutations and change in weather patterns, but in the meantime it seems like it would be most accurate to say "we are continuing shelter-in-place, quarantines and closures because people are scared".   

There has been a lot of ground truth, data and increasing knowledge about the virus -- yet none of it seems have changed government policy.  They are ignoring a few steps of the scientific method.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2020, 01:10:51 PM by egillespie »

Plina

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1105 on: April 24, 2020, 01:35:33 PM »
My country's president has talked about injecting people with disinfectant to cure the virus. If that shows promise, you could convince me to open up sooner rather than later.

Well **technically** - injecting infected people with large doses of said disinfectant will reduce the spread from that individual, and similarly injecting healthy people will protect them from becoming infected... because the patient will die.

and as we all know, dead people don't touch their face or breathe.

True!!

Maybe your president should try his brilliant idea. Just in case he has it, to be on the safe side.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1106 on: April 24, 2020, 01:41:53 PM »
because the patient will die


The corpse remains infectious and must be handled with full PPE and some other precautions that I wont bore you with



edit:typo
« Last Edit: April 24, 2020, 01:49:32 PM by MudPuppy »

nereo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1107 on: April 24, 2020, 01:45:39 PM »
because the patient will die


The corpse remains infections and must be handled with full PPE and some other precautions that I wont bore you with

i love it when sarcastic comments are analyzed literally.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1108 on: April 24, 2020, 01:48:15 PM »
Your sarcasm wasn't lost, but I've heard the same sentiment from people IRL who weren't being sarcastic.

dandarc

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1109 on: April 24, 2020, 02:08:44 PM »
Sarcasm Font

We need to make that happen here.

JGS1980

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1110 on: April 24, 2020, 02:10:52 PM »
Best USA State by State statistical analysis that I've seen so far.

This may help answer the question of how long we should wait to some of the readers on this thread.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-cases-are-still-growing-in-many-u-s-states/

T-Money$

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1111 on: April 24, 2020, 02:19:52 PM »
Best USA State by State statistical analysis that I've seen so far.

This may help answer the question of how long we should wait to some of the readers on this thread.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-cases-are-still-growing-in-many-u-s-states/

I really like Nate Silver.  Current policy to reduce restrictions are based on case counts (along with a few other similar metrics), yet Nate Silver acknowledges that is in most cases is not a good metric:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-case-counts-are-meaningless/

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1112 on: April 24, 2020, 02:25:01 PM »
Interesting read, thank you for sharing.

For % of positive tests, I would be interested to see that data overlaid with when states started testing all symptomatic instead of only those with travel or known contact and also, where applicable, when they started testing anyone who wants a test. I acknowledge that not all states are doing this or have the capacity to do that.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1113 on: April 24, 2020, 02:34:19 PM »
Sarcasm Font

We need to make that happen here.

Sarcasm font should be wingdings.

Jon Bon

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1114 on: April 24, 2020, 02:36:24 PM »
Sarcasm Font

We need to make that happen here.

Sarcasm font should be wingdings.

Comic sans!

Its got Comic in the name, Fight me!


dandarc

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1115 on: April 24, 2020, 02:40:26 PM »
Teletype has it's own button, or just bracket in tt tags though.

Dropdowns are such a PITA compared to buttons.

ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1116 on: April 24, 2020, 05:20:03 PM »
Best USA State by State statistical analysis that I've seen so far.

This may help answer the question of how long we should wait to some of the readers on this thread.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-cases-are-still-growing-in-many-u-s-states/

This article doesn't ring true with me, an Ohioan, because Nate Silver clearly doesn't know why there is an "increase" in cases.  We tested a TON of inmates over quite a lengthy period of time and released all the data on a single day.

If Silver missed this important caveat, I don't want to know what else he missed elsewhere.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1117 on: April 24, 2020, 05:27:19 PM »
Best USA State by State statistical analysis that I've seen so far.

This may help answer the question of how long we should wait to some of the readers on this thread.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-cases-are-still-growing-in-many-u-s-states/

This article doesn't ring true with me, an Ohioan, because Nate Silver clearly doesn't know why there is an "increase" in cases.  We tested a TON of inmates over quite a lengthy period of time and released all the data on a single day.

If Silver missed this important caveat, I don't want to know what else he missed elsewhere.

Good info. You should send 538 an email.

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1118 on: April 24, 2020, 08:11:31 PM »
He mentions the Ohio prison issue in the article. I don’t think his metric is very useful because if testing capacity expands such that asymptomatic people are tested, then the % positive tests can go down even if the # new infected stays the same. People really should look at death rates as a proxy, though this is of course delayed by a week or two. But we shouldn’t be making decisions based on today’s numbers, since at least one incubation period has to pass before we can say that the epidemic in a given area has in fact waned.

Yesterday I re-examined deaths per day and in general for most states it is stable or decreasing. We do need to expand testing capacity to determine hotspots on a more granular level (at least per city or neighborhood) to know we have gotten things under control or if people widely contagious, thus allowing a second wave to blow up in a given area. I think this would be physically possible, especially in rural areas, without a vaccine. The only problem is what to do about inter-city travel.

Jon Bon

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1119 on: April 25, 2020, 05:39:10 AM »
Numbers from the CBO Report:

Unemployment will be 14% this quarter
16% in the third quarter
Economy shrinks 12%
~18 months from now at the end of 2021 unemployment will be 9.5%

So I don't think the CBO believes that we can afford to flatten the curve any longer. Unemployment a few months ago was ~3.5% It was only 10% during the great recession. If those numbers come to pass we are pretty screwed.

T-Money$

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1120 on: April 25, 2020, 06:34:30 AM »
The reaction to COVID-19 seems akin to giving toddlers colonoscopies.

Stay at home for the majority of people that either aren’t at significant risk or have already been infected seems useless and the likelihood of catastrophic economic destruction if current policies are continued indefinitely.

I can’t think of another disease or medical condition that affects various demographics so differently yet everyone is expected to comply as if they are at risk. 

obstinate

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1121 on: April 25, 2020, 08:26:12 AM »
Internet comment threads like this just make me so glad that internet commenters don't decide public health policy. :D That's all I've got to say regarding everyone's armchair surmise about whether "we can afford" to flatten the curve any longer.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1122 on: April 25, 2020, 08:31:00 AM »
Internet comment threads like this just make me so glad that internet commenters don't decide public health policy. :D That's all I've got to say regarding everyone's armchair surmise about whether "we can afford" to flatten the curve any longer.

Each individual does decide public health policy in a way. Here in Melbourne, our dwindling case numbers (<20 cases per day for the last 4 days, nation-wide) have led to an increase in foot traffic and retail traffic. People aren't idiots. With only 1-2 deaths a day nationwide, no deaths in those <60 in a couple of weeks, and very few transmissions, people will take "public health policy" into their own hands. Right now coronavirus in Australia is doing less damage (health wise, not economy wise) than the seasonal flu. The Chief Medical Officer has noted that the figures in Australia suggest an average infection rate of <1 per infected person. That is across the various stages of lockdown (different states have different stages). So while the official lockdown may still be stage 3, I think we are moving towards a de facto stage 2 whether the government likes it or not. And we can see how the case numbers stack up. If we get another wave of infections then you can tell me I'm wrong.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1123 on: April 25, 2020, 08:33:42 AM »
The reaction to COVID-19 seems akin to giving toddlers colonoscopies.

Stay at home for the majority of people that either aren’t at significant risk or have already been infected seems useless and the likelihood of catastrophic economic destruction if current policies are continued indefinitely.

I can’t think of another disease or medical condition that affects various demographics so differently yet everyone is expected to comply as if they are at risk.

Colon cancer isn’t a communicable disease.

Kris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1124 on: April 25, 2020, 08:37:17 AM »
The reaction to COVID-19 seems akin to giving toddlers colonoscopies.

Stay at home for the majority of people that either aren’t at significant risk or have already been infected seems useless and the likelihood of catastrophic economic destruction if current policies are continued indefinitely.

I can’t think of another disease or medical condition that affects various demographics so differently yet everyone is expected to comply as if they are at risk.

Colon cancer isn’t a communicable disease.

Speaking of poor analogies between Covid and non-communicable diseases...

https://www.thewrap.com/giuliani-calls-covid-19-contact-tracing-ridiculous-we-should-trace-everybody-for-cancer-video/

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1125 on: April 25, 2020, 08:39:34 AM »
Numbers from the CBO Report:

Unemployment will be 14% this quarter
16% in the third quarter
Economy shrinks 12%
~18 months from now at the end of 2021 unemployment will be 9.5%

So I don't think the CBO believes that we can afford to flatten the curve any longer. Unemployment a few months ago was ~3.5% It was only 10% during the great recession. If those numbers come to pass we are pretty screwed.

For the entire year or 2020 the expectation is that GDP will shrink by close to 5%, or $1T. So if we saved 100K people, then based on the IS government’s value of a statistical life, the lockdown broke even.

The CBO projects sub 1% interest rates to persist, so it sounds like we’ve got a good weapon to combat long unemployment, which is the one figure I did find concerning.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1126 on: April 25, 2020, 08:40:46 AM »
Speaking of poor analogies between Covid and non-communicable diseases...

https://www.thewrap.com/giuliani-calls-covid-19-contact-tracing-ridiculous-we-should-trace-everybody-for-cancer-video/

Jeez remember how popular that guy used to be?

T-Money$

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1127 on: April 25, 2020, 08:44:37 AM »
Today’s heroes are tomorrow’s scapegoats. 

https://youtu.be/gNTHuCOjAy8

T-Money$

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Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1129 on: April 25, 2020, 08:51:23 AM »
Numbers from the CBO Report:

Unemployment will be 14% this quarter
16% in the third quarter
Economy shrinks 12%
~18 months from now at the end of 2021 unemployment will be 9.5%

So I don't think the CBO believes that we can afford to flatten the curve any longer. Unemployment a few months ago was ~3.5% It was only 10% during the great recession. If those numbers come to pass we are pretty screwed.

For the entire year or 2020 the expectation is that GDP will shrink by close to 5%, or $1T. So if we saved 100K people, then based on the IS government’s value of a statistical life, the lockdown broke even.

The CBO projects sub 1% interest rates to persist, so it sounds like we’ve got a good weapon to combat long unemployment, which is the one figure I did find concerning.

You have to consider the age of the people whose lives were saved.

Here in Australia most of the dead have been 60+ and a third of them were nursing home residents.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1130 on: April 25, 2020, 08:54:37 AM »
Numbers from the CBO Report:

Unemployment will be 14% this quarter
16% in the third quarter
Economy shrinks 12%
~18 months from now at the end of 2021 unemployment will be 9.5%

So I don't think the CBO believes that we can afford to flatten the curve any longer. Unemployment a few months ago was ~3.5% It was only 10% during the great recession. If those numbers come to pass we are pretty screwed.

For the entire year or 2020 the expectation is that GDP will shrink by close to 5%, or $1T. So if we saved 100K people, then based on the IS government’s value of a statistical life, the lockdown broke even.

The CBO projects sub 1% interest rates to persist, so it sounds like we’ve got a good weapon to combat long unemployment, which is the one figure I did find concerning.

You have to consider the age of the people whose lives were saved.

Here in Australia most of the dead have been 60+ and a third of them were nursing home residents.

The government explicitly does not do this in the United States. It’s a bad look for the Federal response to be dictated by valuing life unequally. If there’s the political capital to do so, then it’s probably okay. We’re sort of having that national discussion right now, either directly or indirectly.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1131 on: April 25, 2020, 08:57:01 AM »
The government might not do it but it's sensible public policy to value lives unequally.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1132 on: April 25, 2020, 09:14:33 AM »
The government might not do it but it's sensible public policy to value lives unequally.

Depends upon what the public thinks IMO. And the US Government value of a statistical life attempts to quantify how much the public values life. If there's enough push back, then that says something about the value of life, and the government should rethink the lockdown and the calculation.

Even so, that's a little problematic from a civil liberties perspective. I've seen a lot of argument on the anti-lockdown side regarding civil liberties. But life is also a civil liberty, and in the Declaration of Independence, one of my country's most cited documents, it's actually listed before liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.

People trade their own life for liberty and the pursuit of happiness all the time when they take up smoking or skydiving. But since this is a public health crisis, we're talking about trading others lives for our liberty and pursuit of happiness. Or the other way around.

We're talking bout a large number of lives and an even larger number of persons having their pursuit of happiness impacted. It's a tricky situation and we gotta be careful and get it right. Having studied this for months, I think the US response is decently close to "getting it right". And this is coming from someone with absolute contempt for the person in charge right now. No matter how many mind-numblingly stupid things he says though, it's clear to me that really smart people on both the public health side and the economics side are driving the discourse.



Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1133 on: April 25, 2020, 09:18:05 AM »
I agree with all of that. It's a fine balancing act. I think it would be better for public discourse and public policy if the "authorities" simply acknowledged the balancing act and gave us something to work off so that we can see that they understand that there's a trade-off of lives either way and that there's no perfect solution and they are working on the best they can.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1134 on: April 25, 2020, 09:25:13 AM »
I agree with all of that. It's a fine balancing act. I think it would be better for public discourse and public policy if the "authorities" simply acknowledged the balancing act and gave us something to work off so that we can see that they understand that there's a trade-off of lives either way and that there's no perfect solution and they are working on the best they can.

I mean, I think they do this. Every state in the US reports daily deaths. Many of them give a good picture of who is dying (age, preEx, etc.) and the CDC synthesizes and makes this public at the federal level. Most good media outlets here in the US have made their COVID coverage free to the public.

On the other side of the equation, the CBO makes their projections about the economic impact publicly available too.

My president tweeted like a month ago that "we can't let the cure be worse than the disease" which is basically coming out and saying that there's a trade-off, and not so subtly hinted at what side of the trade-off he prefers.

I think there's more than enough information and forthcomingness right now. Problem is, like many complicated issues, most people don't have the time or expertise to sift through it all. Since we have a representative democracy, we outsource a lot of that the representatives who sift through and call the shots for us. If there's something they miss, media and public protest can act to advocate.

Sorry for the US-Centric view, but it's what I know. And to be fair, it's much more of an issue here than it is in Australia ;)

obstinate

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1135 on: April 25, 2020, 09:34:55 AM »
If we get another wave of infections then you can tell me I'm wrong.
What makes you expect that any other outcome is possible, if your country lets up restrictions while the virus is still spreading in communities? Like, isn't this the classic insanity of trying the same thing and expecting different results? Literally every other country without lockdowns and/or extensive testing+trace architectures has seen rapid spread of the disease. This will happen in Aus too, unless the virus is eradicated.

You can have lockdowns now, with few people sick, or lockdowns later, with lots of people sick. Those are the only two options on the table. Australia has been extraordinarily skilled in how it has dealt with this problem so far. It would be wise to continue on the same course until the virus is eradicated, rather than stopping just short of that goal and ending up with the same problems most other nations are facing.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2020, 09:39:16 AM by obstinate »

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1136 on: April 25, 2020, 09:36:38 AM »
Mathlete, based on your characterisation of the U.S. response, I don't have an issue with it. And from what I see in the news, the U.S. has certainly been less trigger-happy with the lockdown than Australia.

Here in Australia the rhetoric is about saving as many lives as possible, etc. There's no one (except a few newspaper columnists) who's said anything like "we can't let the cure be worse than the disease". Even now with ~15-20 nationwide infections per day, we're still being encouraged to observe lockdown.

obstinate

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1137 on: April 25, 2020, 09:40:18 AM »
Mathlete, based on your characterisation of the U.S. response, I don't have an issue with it. And from what I see in the news, the U.S. has certainly been less trigger-happy with the lockdown than Australia.

Here in Australia the rhetoric is about saving as many lives as possible, etc. There's no one (except a few newspaper columnists) who's said anything like "we can't let the cure be worse than the disease". Even now with ~15-20 nationwide infections per day, we're still being encouraged to observe lockdown.
And look at the result. We're just as locked down as Australia now, only with an extra 50k people dead.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1138 on: April 25, 2020, 09:45:40 AM »
Hopefully, since it’s not as bad there, Australia can open up quicker while still containing community spread.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1139 on: April 25, 2020, 09:55:01 AM »
Mathlete, based on your characterisation of the U.S. response, I don't have an issue with it. And from what I see in the news, the U.S. has certainly been less trigger-happy with the lockdown than Australia.

Here in Australia the rhetoric is about saving as many lives as possible, etc. There's no one (except a few newspaper columnists) who's said anything like "we can't let the cure be worse than the disease". Even now with ~15-20 nationwide infections per day, we're still being encouraged to observe lockdown.
And look at the result. We're just as locked down as Australia now, only with an extra 50k people dead.

Well, no you're not as locked down as we are. We've been locked down harder and longer than you guys. I can't even drive my car unless it's to get groceries. Can't visit my family.

The Australian stimulus has been about $200b too so unless your stimulus has been about 14x that ($2.8 trillion) then we've spent more money fighting it too. We've had a lot more investment in terms of both economic loss and human inconvenience. Time will tell whether the lives saved will have been worth it.

former player

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1140 on: April 25, 2020, 10:09:50 AM »
Does Australia have the option of complete eradication, perhaps alongside NZ?   And even China? The economic advantages of that over the rest of the world could be very considerable.

obstinate

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1141 on: April 25, 2020, 10:27:12 AM »
Does Australia have the option of complete eradication, perhaps alongside NZ?   And even China? The economic advantages of that over the rest of the world could be very considerable.
Exactly. The advantages of complete eradication would be enormous. Everyone has that option, but some places are weeks or months further away from it than others. Aus and NZ are both much closer than most western countries, and have the advantage of being island nations with no land borders. It seems foolish to throw this opportunity away. Of course, I'm not Australian, so I have no stake, but if I were there, that's what I would want to see happen.

Kris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1142 on: April 25, 2020, 10:31:31 AM »
Today’s heroes are tomorrow’s scapegoats. 

https://youtu.be/gNTHuCOjAy8

I think you got the order of your sentence reversed... :D


frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1144 on: April 25, 2020, 12:08:02 PM »
Mathlete, based on your characterisation of the U.S. response, I don't have an issue with it. And from what I see in the news, the U.S. has certainly been less trigger-happy with the lockdown than Australia.

Here in Australia the rhetoric is about saving as many lives as possible, etc. There's no one (except a few newspaper columnists) who's said anything like "we can't let the cure be worse than the disease". Even now with ~15-20 nationwide infections per day, we're still being encouraged to observe lockdown.
And look at the result. We're just as locked down as Australia now, only with an extra 50k people dead.

Well, no you're not as locked down as we are. We've been locked down harder and longer than you guys. I can't even drive my car unless it's to get groceries. Can't visit my family.

The Australian stimulus has been about $200b too so unless your stimulus has been about 14x that ($2.8 trillion) then we've spent more money fighting it too. We've had a lot more investment in terms of both economic loss and human inconvenience. Time will tell whether the lives saved will have been worth it.

I think most places are.  In Michigan we are still on lock down and not supposed to leave for anything not essential like getting food.  Still no family visits.  We can leave the house to walk or bike, but need to maintain social distancing.

The USA passed a $2.2T stimulus package.  I think they've done several more (smaller though) since then, so we are probably very close to your $2.8T figure.


YttriumNitrate

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1145 on: April 25, 2020, 12:16:35 PM »
Does Australia have the option of complete eradication, perhaps alongside NZ?   And even China? The economic advantages of that over the rest of the world could be very considerable.

Wouldn't that require Australia to keep their borders locked for the next year or so?

Plina

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1146 on: April 25, 2020, 12:49:39 PM »
Does Australia have the option of complete eradication, perhaps alongside NZ?   And even China? The economic advantages of that over the rest of the world could be very considerable.

Wouldn't that require Australia to keep their borders locked for the next year or so?

That was my thought also when I read that NZ is going for eradication. No international traffic to countries with a large tourism industry that at least NZ have could prove to be difficult.

obstinate

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1147 on: April 25, 2020, 01:13:08 PM »
Does Australia have the option of complete eradication, perhaps alongside NZ?   And even China? The economic advantages of that over the rest of the world could be very considerable.

Wouldn't that require Australia to keep their borders locked for the next year or so?
Other countries currently have their borders basically closed AND their domestic economies shut down. Just having your borders closed with a working domestic economy seems strictly better.

obstinate

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1148 on: April 25, 2020, 01:15:20 PM »

T-Money$

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1149 on: April 25, 2020, 01:19:19 PM »
https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/time-consider-herd-immunity-york-011655336.html

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/25/844939777/no-evidence-that-recovered-covid-19-patients-are-immune-who-says
I mean. None besides the prior evidence that people are mostly immune from almost all viruses after catching them, at least for a period. I think it'd be more correct to say there is no direct evidence.

Correct.  Dr. Fauci seems to think those that are infected will be immune for the foreseeable future. 

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/491988-fauci-recovered-coronavirus-patients-will-likely

If we want to go down the "no evidence" road, we could say "social distancing" has no empirical evidence of it's efficacy, because there is none.  It's almost impossible to measure.  That doesn't mean that models show a moderate benefit to society, which is how the peer reviewed stuff reads.   Although, NYC probably has a 25% infection rate by now, which would make one doubt the social distancing thing -- it was likely widespread by the time policy was implemented would be my guess.

I'm wonder if the WHO was taken out of context, but if not there is a double standard going on...probably because of political motivations would be my guess.

« Last Edit: April 25, 2020, 01:21:03 PM by egillespie »