Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 248306 times)

Just Joe

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4057
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #350 on: March 31, 2020, 08:50:00 PM »
Why is isolation such a burden for people.

Isolation in a tin roof shanty with no sanitary facilities - okay!

Isolation in a dry, heated/cooled western home with electricity and running water likely with TV and internet? What IS the problem?

We've really enjoyed time at home despite the worries about this virus. Its been a staycation. Games, TV, music, books, good food, and chores. Also - hobbies.

lutorm

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 202
  • Location: A large island in the middle of the Pacific Ocean
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #351 on: April 01, 2020, 02:40:36 AM »
I'm surprised how much excess in the system people think there is for handling people getting sick and/or dying.
Indeed. For wars we have this absolutely massive military that's being kept around "just in case", basically doing nothing but training. (Ok they're not doing quite as much nothing as I would like, but pretty close compared to a full-out major conflict. People are arguing about the size of the military but at most they want to cut it by tens of percent.)

Why are we OK with the country not having a similar "force readiness" when it comes to health care? It's not just for pandemics either, if there really was to be a major military conflict on US soil the health care system wouldn't stand a chance.

We have better responses to natural disasters, but those happen so often somewhere that they're not really "kept around doing nothing" that it's sort of in a different regime.

Travis

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3188
  • Location: South Korea
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #352 on: April 01, 2020, 04:56:23 AM »
I'm surprised how much excess in the system people think there is for handling people getting sick and/or dying.
Indeed. For wars we have this absolutely massive military that's being kept around "just in case", basically doing nothing but training. (Ok they're not doing quite as much nothing as I would like, but pretty close compared to a full-out major conflict. People are arguing about the size of the military but at most they want to cut it by tens of percent.)

Why are we OK with the country not having a similar "force readiness" when it comes to health care? It's not just for pandemics either, if there really was to be a major military conflict on US soil the health care system wouldn't stand a chance.

We have better responses to natural disasters, but those happen so often somewhere that they're not really "kept around doing nothing" that it's sort of in a different regime.

Worth mentioning that the hospital ship in NYC (of which there are only two) will be seeing non-COVID patients to take some of the burden off the civilian infrastructure. The Army's hospital units have been constructing field sites in a few places around the country to take on additional patients.  The Army has a dozen or so deployable field hospitals in the force. Each is capable of handling about 400 patients depending on their needs. A typical field hospital can perform primary care functions, some imaging, some surgeries, but a patient is expected to be moved on within 3 days to a higher level of care.  The catch is that most of the docs and nurses in these units have day jobs in the Army's garrison hospitals. A surgeon stitching up a bullet wound in Afghanistan for 9-12 months is not stitching up a training accident victim at Fort Hood where he normally works. Most of our deployable medical capability is in the Reserves which means most credentialed soldiers have civilian medical day jobs.  We can't tap them for this emergency. The Army reached out to the recently retired community to see if anybody would be willing to come back on active duty for some unspecified amount of time (as long as they're not already committed to a civilian medical occupation).  There's also talk of making the call up involuntary if the need is great enough.

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 13536
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #353 on: April 01, 2020, 06:57:52 AM »
Why is isolation such a burden for people.

Isolation in a tin roof shanty with no sanitary facilities - okay!

Isolation in a dry, heated/cooled western home with electricity and running water likely with TV and internet? What IS the problem?

We've really enjoyed time at home despite the worries about this virus. Its been a staycation. Games, TV, music, books, good food, and chores. Also - hobbies.

For us it's the compounding problem of being required to work from home while raising a toddler in a confined space with no day care or external support. 
That is crushing, for us.  Our daughter doesn't understand why she can't see her friend across the yard, or play at daycare or use the playground (now encased in 'Police Tape'), her world has been confined to a few rooms and walks around the block.

At the same time we both must work, but with many of the necessary tools (physical and virtual) less available to us.  Wife spends 4-5 hours in virtual meetings each day but document sharing is incredibly problematic... she can't just scan, print and share with everyone.  Lots of the people she's meeting with lack strong internet connections and/or technical saavy.  Every 'meeting' begins with several minutes of group tech-support and inevitably at least one or two people are listening on cellphones, unable to fully participate.  Accessing the secure server isn't an option, so files have to made through special requisitions made to the poor IT guys that are still in the building.... which is a lot like asking someone else to locate an item in your home...

I'm furloughed but still expected/requires to perform many of my duties, particularly to my students.  That's particularly frustrating knowing I have an obligation to do quality work but will not ever be compensated for the time I spend now.

Then there;'s the very heavy emotional toll, which neither of us really expected.  We have elderly parents who we can't see, and who can't see their grandchildren.  Spouse has a frail grandfather who very could pass away before we're allowed to visit.  I have three family members working on the front lines of COVID and I know their exposure risk is sky-high.  And then there's all the other close friends we can't physically be there for; my friend recovering from a divorce, my BIL who's struggling with a colicky infant, etc.  Video chat is good, but it's hard when you know there's no way you can actually be there in person.

In short - we've never had so much on our plate for so little compensation or support.

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 16600
  • Age: 39
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #354 on: April 01, 2020, 07:30:04 AM »
Why is isolation such a burden for people.

Isolation in a tin roof shanty with no sanitary facilities - okay!

Isolation in a dry, heated/cooled western home with electricity and running water likely with TV and internet? What IS the problem?

We've really enjoyed time at home despite the worries about this virus. Its been a staycation. Games, TV, music, books, good food, and chores. Also - hobbies.

For us it's the compounding problem of being required to work from home while raising a toddler in a confined space with no day care or external support. 
That is crushing, for us.  Our daughter doesn't understand why she can't see her friend across the yard, or play at daycare or use the playground (now encased in 'Police Tape'), her world has been confined to a few rooms and walks around the block.

At the same time we both must work, but with many of the necessary tools (physical and virtual) less available to us.  Wife spends 4-5 hours in virtual meetings each day but document sharing is incredibly problematic... she can't just scan, print and share with everyone.  Lots of the people she's meeting with lack strong internet connections and/or technical saavy.  Every 'meeting' begins with several minutes of group tech-support and inevitably at least one or two people are listening on cellphones, unable to fully participate.  Accessing the secure server isn't an option, so files have to made through special requisitions made to the poor IT guys that are still in the building.... which is a lot like asking someone else to locate an item in your home...

I'm furloughed but still expected/requires to perform many of my duties, particularly to my students.  That's particularly frustrating knowing I have an obligation to do quality work but will not ever be compensated for the time I spend now.

Then there;'s the very heavy emotional toll, which neither of us really expected.  We have elderly parents who we can't see, and who can't see their grandchildren.  Spouse has a frail grandfather who very could pass away before we're allowed to visit.  I have three family members working on the front lines of COVID and I know their exposure risk is sky-high.  And then there's all the other close friends we can't physically be there for; my friend recovering from a divorce, my BIL who's struggling with a colicky infant, etc.  Video chat is good, but it's hard when you know there's no way you can actually be there in person.

In short - we've never had so much on our plate for so little compensation or support.

+1


I'm required to do the same amount of work as I would do at the office, but there are a variety of things that now slow me down.  That means I've been averaging 10 - 11 hours a day and working on the weekends to try to make up time.  In addition to that, my wife has a similar working situation, and we're trying to educate our six year old for eight hours a day while doing this.  In addition to that, I have to plan out and figure what time during the week will be the safest to take 2-3 hours to try to buy groceries (can't go on the weekend because of food shortages and large crowds).

My wife's parents are in the Philippines, and my parents are here in Canada.  All the parents are in a high risk group for one reason or another, and I'm really hoping that they all come out OK, which is adding to the stress.  After being screamed at by a passing person in a car the other day that I needed to be inside my home or he would run me off the road if he saw me again . . . it seems like I'm going to lose my primary exercise outlet too.

It's good that many people are having themselves a fun government paid vacation/party, but some of us have got significantly less free time and a hell of a lot more stress.  (Although, nereo has it worse than me . . . at least I'm paid for my work.)

the_fixer

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 899
  • Location: Colorado
  • mind on my money money on my mind
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #355 on: April 01, 2020, 07:34:04 AM »
I'm surprised how much excess in the system people think there is for handling people getting sick and/or dying.
Indeed. For wars we have this absolutely massive military that's being kept around "just in case", basically doing nothing but training. (Ok they're not doing quite as much nothing as I would like, but pretty close compared to a full-out major conflict. People are arguing about the size of the military but at most they want to cut it by tens of percent.)

Why are we OK with the country not having a similar "force readiness" when it comes to health care? It's not just for pandemics either, if there really was to be a major military conflict on US soil the health care system wouldn't stand a chance.

We have better responses to natural disasters, but those happen so often somewhere that they're not really "kept around doing nothing" that it's sort of in a different regime.
I look at it in terms of my home and life it is only realistic to plan / prepare to a certain level. I suppose you could prepare for every single possibility but I do not have the space, time or capital to prepare for every possibility so I make a decision on the probability of necessity and go with that.

So if Yellowstone goes super volcano I might not be prepared and die, if a nuke gets dropped close enough to Colorado I might not be prepared and die.

I prepare for prolonged snow storms, fires, lack of services and things that are more likely. If something else happens we try to adapt and react as best as we can.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

the_fixer

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 899
  • Location: Colorado
  • mind on my money money on my mind
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #356 on: April 01, 2020, 07:37:39 AM »
@nereo

If you are furloughed why are you still working?

I would tell my work to pound sand if they wanted to furlough me, not pay me and expect anything from me.

Probably even against the law I would suspect


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

ReadySetMillionaire

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1619
  • Location: The Buckeye State
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #357 on: April 01, 2020, 09:15:55 AM »
My position has mostly shifted to this:

We need to increase testing, production of PPE, and healthcare capacity at basically a military/WW2 style level.  Basically have the entire country dedicated to this effort in April.

Once that is accomplished, we have to open society back up, institute smart safety protocols (wearing of masks, isolation of most vulnerable, quarantine procedure for infected), and just accept the consequences.  We cannot dedicate our entire economy and society to defeating this virus, because the long term economic and public health damage will exceed anything the virus would do.

I simply do not think people are thinking long term here.  A Great Depression means loss of jobs for our lower/middle class, homelessness, hunger, increase in suicides, mental health damage, etc.  Please do not show me your study about an increase in life expectancy during the Depression.  Life was fucking terrible for a long time and it took WW2 to get us out of that mess.

The "flatten the curve" mantra cannot go on forever.  It is a way to buy time to increase capacity.  Beyond that, we as a society need to move on.

dandarc

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4022
  • Age: 37
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #358 on: April 01, 2020, 09:23:56 AM »
I mean, that is the actual plan - bring the hammer for a few / weeks maybe months. Once it is under control enough, and capacity like you've described increases, we shift to the dance - start getting back to normal, but with good surveillance basically play whack-a-mole. Layed out here almost 2 weeks ago..

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Social distancing / shutdowns were never intended to be forever.

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 13536
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #359 on: April 01, 2020, 09:31:39 AM »
@nereo

If you are furloughed why are you still working?

I would tell my work to pound sand if they wanted to furlough me, not pay me and expect anything from me.

Probably even against the law I would suspect


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Two reasons. Iím an adjunct faculty and researcher. While my party is tied entirely to the number of course hours taught (currently zero as campus - and in particular all labs - are closed) Iím also an advisor to several students. This would fall under my normal workload and I donít think itís fair for me not to continue to advise students who are already getting the short end of the stick

At the same time we are working to publish several papers from a grant which wrapped up last fall. Grants rarely cover time for the required publication - the hope is that you continue to work on new projects while finishing up previous ones. But those have stopped too, as all field work has been canceled.

This situation has really exposed a lot of the weaknesses in our funding model for higher education.

the_fixer

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 899
  • Location: Colorado
  • mind on my money money on my mind
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #360 on: April 01, 2020, 09:41:13 AM »
Fair enough, I guess they are not forcing you to work you are choosing to do it so doubt any laws are being broken.

I think we all do that at one point or another in life so we do not fall behind, to get ahead or we just think it is the right thing to do.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 13536
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #361 on: April 01, 2020, 09:53:02 AM »
Fair enough, I guess they are not forcing you to work you are choosing to do it so doubt any laws are being broken.

I think we all do that at one point or another in life so we do not fall behind, to get ahead or we just think it is the right thing to do.

In a sense this is true - no one is "forcing" me to work.  However, the way the system is set up if I don't do this work I will almost certainly not be hired back.
In academia your value is measured by your output.  Primarily publications but also the number of students you have advised, community seminars given, etc.

As an adjunct (the educational word for "contract employee" you are only paid for course hours taught. You do not get paid for prep time, or for your office hours, or the papers you must publish or the seminars you are asked to give.  Under normal circumstances this works out ok (... but certainly not great).  under current circumstances I have all these things which I'm still expected to accomplish, but which do not result in any paid work.

I've already promised students I would serve on their committee, so I don't feel ok backing out of that promise.  And there's requriements on all grants to show 'quality output' - but again that's not anything you are paid for, it's just expected, and very very often done after the grant funding has expired.  If I don't do it, I will torpedo my own chances of getting future grants, and be uncompetitive for future faculty or researcher positions.


dandarc

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4022
  • Age: 37
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #362 on: April 01, 2020, 09:58:15 AM »
I don't understand how anyone puts up with academia BS, and yet there never seems to be a shortage of professors desperate for work. Seems ripe for an organized labor movement.

I'm sure it is a nuanced thing that I'll never fully understand, but it just seems like such a raw deal for the effort it takes.
« Last Edit: April 01, 2020, 10:03:19 AM by dandarc »

OtherJen

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3602
  • Location: Metro Detroit
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #363 on: April 01, 2020, 09:59:56 AM »
I don't understand how anyone puts up with academia BS, and yet there never seems to be a shortage of professor's desperate for work. Seems ripe for an organized labor movement.

I'm sure it is a nuanced thing that I'll never fully understand, but it just seems like such a raw deal for the effort it takes.

It's why I bailed after my postdoc. It's a horribly exploitative system.

bilmar

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 61
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #364 on: April 01, 2020, 10:06:32 AM »
I think many are mistaking the choice as between flattening the curve  and saving the economy.

I don't see the economy recovering UNTIL people stop being scared of ending up in hospital which will likely be based on reports of the state of their local hospitals' capacity, shortages of PPE, machines, staff etc  and local infection/death rates.


Here is a reasonable thought experiment ( for USA):
Assume that social distancing rules remains spotty with thousands of cars driving between cities and communities every day so the virus eventually spreads to every community in the USA.
In the next 6 weeks,  hospitals across the nation run at or beyond capacity for months after with no elective surgery - even in small towns.

Further assume that we are told by White House  that 'people die, deal with it and go stimulate the economy'.

If Joe Public believes that his local hospital is a death trap and that there is a serious risk of ending up there if he does go out to to the restaurant, will he do so anyway?
Will that worry cause him to not buy that new sofa, car etc and instead save some money just in case?


In normal times, the state of the US economy has always been driven by consumer confidence.
Why should now be any different?



nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 13536
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #365 on: April 01, 2020, 10:12:30 AM »
I don't understand how anyone puts up with academia BS, and yet there never seems to be a shortage of professor's desperate for work. Seems ripe for an organized labor movement.

I'm sure it is a nuanced thing that I'll never fully understand, but it just seems like such a raw deal for the effort it takes.

It is a raw deal.  This may sound corny but I do it because I love to teach, and I love to do primary research, and this is the only avenue one really has to do such things.

Things for academics got a lot worse during and immediately after the 'Great Recession'.  Every single state was forced to cut direct funding to higher education, and federal funding took a big hit as well.  For many large university systems the funding has yet to recover to pre-2008 levels, even as enrollment has increased.

The GOP has continued to push "challenge based grants" designed to "reward excellence" and "promote the best and brightest".  Sounds good in a sound byte but you can't just reward the A-level professors and students.  Those B+ to C- folks need resources too, and more importantly higher education systems need to have a steady stream of income to form budget and long-term plans.  So they've done what the 'free-market' dictates... jack up tuition to unsustainable levels (reliable source of revenue) and paid top-dollar to secure A+ faculty that will bring in the huge grants that drive overhead.  It makes the business of education run, but it's not in the best interest of the middle 50% (or so) of students or faculty that are highly competent and bright but not 'superstars'.  And its downright awful for the bottom tier students who struggle, can't get the resources they need but (ironically) can and are encouraged to take out 5-figure student loans.

What irritates the hell out of me is the common opinion by tenured (older) faculty that struggling as an adjunct is a 'rite of passage', and therefor ok. 

the_fixer

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 899
  • Location: Colorado
  • mind on my money money on my mind
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #366 on: April 01, 2020, 10:22:31 AM »
I think many are mistaking the choice as between flattening the curve  and saving the economy.

I don't see the economy recovering UNTIL people stop being scared of ending up in hospital which will likely be based on reports of the state of their local hospitals' capacity, shortages of PPE, machines, staff etc  and local infection/death rates.


Here is a reasonable thought experiment ( for USA):
Assume that social distancing rules remains spotty with thousands of cars driving between cities and communities every day so the virus eventually spreads to every community in the USA.
In the next 6 weeks,  hospitals across the nation run at or beyond capacity for months after with no elective surgery - even in small towns.

Further assume that we are told by White House  that 'people die, deal with it and go stimulate the economy'.

If Joe Public believes that his local hospital is a death trap and that there is a serious risk of ending up there if he does go out to to the restaurant, will he do so anyway?
Will that worry cause him to not buy that new sofa, car etc and instead save some money just in case?


In normal times, the state of the US economy has always been driven by consumer confidence.
Why should now be any different?
After enough time passes I think most people would resume their old habits even if risking death but it would be a while for it to become the new norm.

The economy would still be in a world of hurt and in my opinion it would be worse off.

Probably the best thing they could have done for the economy would have been a Wuhan style lock down plus a serious quarantine of people coming back so we could get past it ASAP and restart the economy.

That would never fly in the US so we either take it slow and ask people to social distance and stay home or just let it rip.

As soon as the president even mentioned putting a quarantine in place is was called an act of war against NY and people were pissed.

Now imagine them trying to do that to the entire country if the place that is on fire acts that way.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Cassie

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6655
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #367 on: April 01, 2020, 10:27:58 AM »
I didnít spend my career in higher education but teach a online college class every semester for the past 8 years. I get paid for teaching but keep it updated for free. Some people say they wouldnít do that but if I donít I will lose the class. I really feel sorry for people working full time from home with kids that need home schooling now. I am sure the kids are also suffering from the isolation. We are in a high risk group and my kids are worried. It really sucks not to be able to hang out with family and friends. People are dying alone in hospitals and women are giving birth alone. Really stressful times.

the_fixer

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 899
  • Location: Colorado
  • mind on my money money on my mind
How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #368 on: April 01, 2020, 10:33:06 AM »
Fair enough, I guess they are not forcing you to work you are choosing to do it so doubt any laws are being broken.

I think we all do that at one point or another in life so we do not fall behind, to get ahead or we just think it is the right thing to do.

In a sense this is true - no one is "forcing" me to work.  However, the way the system is set up if I don't do this work I will almost certainly not be hired back.
In academia your value is measured by your output.  Primarily publications but also the number of students you have advised, community seminars given, etc.

As an adjunct (the educational word for "contract employee" you are only paid for course hours taught. You do not get paid for prep time, or for your office hours, or the papers you must publish or the seminars you are asked to give.  Under normal circumstances this works out ok (... but certainly not great).  under current circumstances I have all these things which I'm still expected to accomplish, but which do not result in any paid work.

I've already promised students I would serve on their committee, so I don't feel ok backing out of that promise.  And there's requriements on all grants to show 'quality output' - but again that's not anything you are paid for, it's just expected, and very very often done after the grant funding has expired.  If I don't do it, I will torpedo my own chances of getting future grants, and be uncompetitive for future faculty or researcher positions.
I get it, my wife works in the scientific community for the federal government and a large part of their work is with and at universities on projects that will probably not come to fruition until long after she retires and in some cases is dead.

During the shutdown last year people @ her work were still working despite not getting paid and even people working under grants from the university were working to move things forward because they wanted to come out of it in a good place for the future.

Granted my wife did get paid after the shutdown while the people working under grants from the universityís were not paid until they made up their ďtimeĒ despite working.

Personally I choose to work in industry because working for uni or the government has too many downsides.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

lutorm

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 202
  • Location: A large island in the middle of the Pacific Ocean
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #369 on: April 01, 2020, 04:39:36 PM »
I'm required to do the same amount of work as I would do at the office...
You are not required to. None of this is normal and if your employer expects that they, alone among all, should be untouched by this situation, someone needs to set them straight. Even my normally hardcore employer understands that apart from working at home, people are dealing with taking care of kids, etc, and everyone can just do the best they can. Work does not take precedence over everything else in your life, arguably even less so in the current situation.

lutorm

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 202
  • Location: A large island in the middle of the Pacific Ocean
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #370 on: April 01, 2020, 04:44:46 PM »
I look at it in terms of my home and life it is only realistic to plan / prepare to a certain level. I suppose you could prepare for every single possibility but I do not have the space, time or capital to prepare for every possibility so I make a decision on the probability of necessity and go with that.

So if Yellowstone goes super volcano I might not be prepared and die, if a nuke gets dropped close enough to Colorado I might not be prepared and die.

I prepare for prolonged snow storms, fires, lack of services and things that are more likely. If something else happens we try to adapt and react as best as we can.
I was not at all arguing that every individual should prep themselves for a societal apocalypse. On the contrary. I was just making the point that it seems to me that having a health care system that maintains a significant surge capacity is just as much a "National Security Issue" as maintaining people with guns beyond the normal police force. You build these systems with the hope that they will never be needed, because the price to society if you find that they are needed and you don't have them is too great.

afox

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 349
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #371 on: April 01, 2020, 04:54:58 PM »
I'm required to do the same amount of work as I would do at the office...
You are not required to. None of this is normal and if your employer expects that they, alone among all, should be untouched by this situation, someone needs to set them straight. Even my normally hardcore employer understands that apart from working at home, people are dealing with taking care of kids, etc, and everyone can just do the best they can. Work does not take precedence over everything else in your life, arguably even less so in the current situation.

Oh really??? What country/universe do you live in? This kind of attitude is likely to get one fired, during a time when unemployment is the highest its EVER been in the US. Without a job there is no health insurance and little or no money. Without health insurance there is no COVID treatment and a shortened life of pain, suffering, and bankruptcy is a very high possibility. Id argue that given the current facts of the situation work should take precedence over everything but maintaining your health to the degree that it enables you to continue to perform your work. If anything I think employers now know they have the upper hand, anyone complaining should realize how lucky they are to have a job. Its not all doom and gloom though, this work attitude is going to make us super competitive in the global market, we're going to work our asses off, take less vacation, get paid less, and our companies will do well.



the_fixer

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 899
  • Location: Colorado
  • mind on my money money on my mind
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #372 on: April 01, 2020, 06:39:52 PM »
I look at it in terms of my home and life it is only realistic to plan / prepare to a certain level. I suppose you could prepare for every single possibility but I do not have the space, time or capital to prepare for every possibility so I make a decision on the probability of necessity and go with that.

So if Yellowstone goes super volcano I might not be prepared and die, if a nuke gets dropped close enough to Colorado I might not be prepared and die.

I prepare for prolonged snow storms, fires, lack of services and things that are more likely. If something else happens we try to adapt and react as best as we can.
I was not at all arguing that every individual should prep themselves for a societal apocalypse. On the contrary. I was just making the point that it seems to me that having a health care system that maintains a significant surge capacity is just as much a "National Security Issue" as maintaining people with guns beyond the normal police force. You build these systems with the hope that they will never be needed, because the price to society if you find that they are needed and you don't have them is too great.
I understand I was using my personal example to compare why the government can never prepare for every eventual outcome for every situation it is not realistic.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

AnnaGrowsAMustache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1919
  • Location: Noo Zilind
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #373 on: April 01, 2020, 06:49:45 PM »
I'm required to do the same amount of work as I would do at the office...
You are not required to. None of this is normal and if your employer expects that they, alone among all, should be untouched by this situation, someone needs to set them straight. Even my normally hardcore employer understands that apart from working at home, people are dealing with taking care of kids, etc, and everyone can just do the best they can. Work does not take precedence over everything else in your life, arguably even less so in the current situation.

Oh really??? What country/universe do you live in? This kind of attitude is likely to get one fired, during a time when unemployment is the highest its EVER been in the US. Without a job there is no health insurance and little or no money. Without health insurance there is no COVID treatment and a shortened life of pain, suffering, and bankruptcy is a very high possibility. Id argue that given the current facts of the situation work should take precedence over everything but maintaining your health to the degree that it enables you to continue to perform your work. If anything I think employers now know they have the upper hand, anyone complaining should realize how lucky they are to have a job. Its not all doom and gloom though, this work attitude is going to make us super competitive in the global market, we're going to work our asses off, take less vacation, get paid less, and our companies will do well.

Other countries, perhaps even most other countries have employment laws that protect employees, social welfare nets, and universal healthcare.

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 16600
  • Age: 39
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #374 on: April 01, 2020, 07:00:20 PM »
I'm required to do the same amount of work as I would do at the office...
You are not required to. None of this is normal and if your employer expects that they, alone among all, should be untouched by this situation, someone needs to set them straight. Even my normally hardcore employer understands that apart from working at home, people are dealing with taking care of kids, etc, and everyone can just do the best they can. Work does not take precedence over everything else in your life, arguably even less so in the current situation.

Oh really??? What country/universe do you live in? This kind of attitude is likely to get one fired, during a time when unemployment is the highest its EVER been in the US. Without a job there is no health insurance and little or no money. Without health insurance there is no COVID treatment and a shortened life of pain, suffering, and bankruptcy is a very high possibility. Id argue that given the current facts of the situation work should take precedence over everything but maintaining your health to the degree that it enables you to continue to perform your work. If anything I think employers now know they have the upper hand, anyone complaining should realize how lucky they are to have a job. Its not all doom and gloom though, this work attitude is going to make us super competitive in the global market, we're going to work our asses off, take less vacation, get paid less, and our companies will do well.

Other countries, perhaps even most other countries have employment laws that protect employees, social welfare nets, and universal healthcare.

I work in Canada.  Mostly I'm putting in a lot of extra effort because I don't want to let others down and because if we fail to meet contracts in the near future our company may very well go under.  If all of us drop down to 60-80% of our regular work output, I honestly don't think we'll last very long.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1919
  • Location: Noo Zilind
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #375 on: April 01, 2020, 07:23:39 PM »
I'm required to do the same amount of work as I would do at the office...
You are not required to. None of this is normal and if your employer expects that they, alone among all, should be untouched by this situation, someone needs to set them straight. Even my normally hardcore employer understands that apart from working at home, people are dealing with taking care of kids, etc, and everyone can just do the best they can. Work does not take precedence over everything else in your life, arguably even less so in the current situation.

Oh really??? What country/universe do you live in? This kind of attitude is likely to get one fired, during a time when unemployment is the highest its EVER been in the US. Without a job there is no health insurance and little or no money. Without health insurance there is no COVID treatment and a shortened life of pain, suffering, and bankruptcy is a very high possibility. Id argue that given the current facts of the situation work should take precedence over everything but maintaining your health to the degree that it enables you to continue to perform your work. If anything I think employers now know they have the upper hand, anyone complaining should realize how lucky they are to have a job. Its not all doom and gloom though, this work attitude is going to make us super competitive in the global market, we're going to work our asses off, take less vacation, get paid less, and our companies will do well.

This kind of makes me giggle. It's exactly the attitude that the billionaires want you to have. You're not actually reliant on them, you know. If you want more information, there's this little blog called Mr Money Mustache......

lutorm

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 202
  • Location: A large island in the middle of the Pacific Ocean
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #376 on: April 01, 2020, 07:57:40 PM »
Oh really??? What country/universe do you live in? This kind of attitude is likely to get one fired, during a time when unemployment is the highest its EVER been in the US. Without a job there is no health insurance and little or no money. Without health insurance there is no COVID treatment and a shortened life of pain, suffering, and bankruptcy is a very high possibility. Id argue that given the current facts of the situation work should take precedence over everything but maintaining your health to the degree that it enables you to continue to perform your work. If anything I think employers now know they have the upper hand, anyone complaining should realize how lucky they are to have a job. Its not all doom and gloom though, this work attitude is going to make us super competitive in the global market, we're going to work our asses off, take less vacation, get paid less, and our companies will do well.
Unless you work in a shithole, and are a valued employee, I doubt telling your employer that you need some flexibility will get you fired. It's not "an attitude" to (calmly and reasonably, obviously) tell them that you can't do this at this point in time, for obvious reasons.

I don't think it's actually that easy for employers to find new skilled people now; people can't move around, it's hard to conduct interviews when people wfh, and perhaps most of all, the market is about to get flooded with people who are not necessarily the cream of the crop. I remember hearing from my friends who tried to hire people in 2008-2009 that it was actually harder to hire because the applicant pool was diluted with so many unskilled people that finding the skilled ones was even harder than normal.

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 13536
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #377 on: April 02, 2020, 01:10:00 AM »
Oh really??? What country/universe do you live in? This kind of attitude is likely to get one fired, during a time when unemployment is the highest its EVER been in the US. Without a job there is no health insurance and little or no money. Without health insurance there is no COVID treatment and a shortened life of pain, suffering, and bankruptcy is a very high possibility. Id argue that given the current facts of the situation work should take precedence over everything but maintaining your health to the degree that it enables you to continue to perform your work. If anything I think employers now know they have the upper hand, anyone complaining should realize how lucky they are to have a job. Its not all doom and gloom though, this work attitude is going to make us super competitive in the global market, we're going to work our asses off, take less vacation, get paid less, and our companies will do well.
Unless you work in a shithole, and are a valued employee, I doubt telling your employer that you need some flexibility will get you fired. It's not "an attitude" to (calmly and reasonably, obviously) tell them that you can't do this at this point in time, for obvious reasons.

I don't think it's actually that easy for employers to find new skilled people now; people can't move around, it's hard to conduct interviews when people wfh, and perhaps most of all, the market is about to get flooded with people who are not necessarily the cream of the crop. I remember hearing from my friends who tried to hire people in 2008-2009 that it was actually harder to hire because the applicant pool was diluted with so many unskilled people that finding the skilled ones was even harder than normal.

I disagree with your premise @lutorm.
For many, many people, they work for businesses that are currently furloughing and laying off workers as they are forced to close and productivity & revenue has already ground to a crawl.  If someone comes up to management and says ďI need greater flexibilityĒ that person is very likely to be on the next list of layoffs.  From a practical standpoint, what many businesses need is survive is to quickly slash their payroll and to retain only the bare minimum which might allow them to putter along until this opens back up in a few months.

Because weíve tied health care to businesses and burdened them with the cost itís expensive to keep many employees on payroll even when hours are cut. While I agree that managers and owners want to do good by their employees, many businesses are currently undergoing a solvency crisis.  When it comes down to trying to save the company or favor the employee itís a clear (but unfortunate) choice - if the business fails then all employees and profits are lost permanently. 
« Last Edit: April 02, 2020, 06:39:28 AM by nereo »

kenmoremmm

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 525
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #378 on: April 02, 2020, 01:15:11 AM »
^ agreed.

i'm a senior engineer in my 15 person office. i lead the day to day office management and most engineers report to me. i am worried that i will be outworked by the younger engineers because they're single/young and don't have kids. i normally stick to 40 hour weeks, though for the past half year, am around 60 hour weeks.

the shit will hit the fan soon for our industry and the day of reckoning will come. while under almost all of my previous theorized circumstances i think i would've been safe, this disruption to the economy is something completely different.

Bettersafe

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 111
  • Age: 44
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #379 on: April 02, 2020, 02:15:06 AM »
@nereo, in normal times I doubt any physician would practice medicine without adequate malpractice insurance, and in normal times I think all malpractice insurance requires the doctor to be current on boards, state licensure, and any other sort of requirements like that.

In non-normal times, I don't know what the answer is, but the malpractice aspect is something that I think most doctors would insist on being addressed before moving forward.  Some sort of blanket law protecting them might work (like the Volunteer Protection Act or similar).

My legal insurance company stated that any physician going back to work as a result of Corona is covered as if they were still on insurance. But it's an issuance company that only handles healthcare customers so they might have a different reaction than insurance company's that provide non-medical persons as well. And I'm not in the USA, don't know how other countries are responding.
Our government decided any healthcare worker that stoped practicing after jan 1st 2018 could get back to work under supervision. If you go back as a retired doctor you'll basicly be working as a resident again.

Bettersafe

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 111
  • Age: 44
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #380 on: April 02, 2020, 02:59:08 AM »
Of course people know bad things are coming.

Over the course of a 15 year career, Iíve responded to six hurricanes, and one earthquake. Haiti, Katrina, Maria, Michael, Florence, Dorian. Each response left me with something that will never leave my brain. Haiti above all. The saving grace is that Iíve been able to spread those moments out across 15 years, with gaps in between.

Youíre asking medical workers to live disaster response day, after day, after day, for an untold amount of time. To use your analogy: itís asking a LEO to shoot someone in the line of duty every day, and telling them itís just part of their job. Itís an astonishing lack of compassion.

@Abe has ďFirst Do No Harm.Ē @MoseyingAlong has a vocation that stretches back as far as humans. I have ďHonor, Respect, Devotion to Duty.Ē Iím not exactly certain what you have, beyond stories that donít even involve your own suffering.

Thank you for an excellent response. 

I was very young when I decided to be a physician. At that time I knew there would be difficult times, people would die in my presence not being able to safe them etc. I carry my own backpack, full of patients I lost, full of stories that will break your hart. But that's how it is, and I carry that backpack without a single complaint.

But stating we should have been anticipating years of hell and basically saying it's our own fault for not foreseeing.... It just blows my mind...

Wolfpack Mustachian

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 744
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #381 on: April 02, 2020, 07:21:53 AM »
Of course people know bad things are coming.

Over the course of a 15 year career, Iíve responded to six hurricanes, and one earthquake. Haiti, Katrina, Maria, Michael, Florence, Dorian. Each response left me with something that will never leave my brain. Haiti above all. The saving grace is that Iíve been able to spread those moments out across 15 years, with gaps in between.

Youíre asking medical workers to live disaster response day, after day, after day, for an untold amount of time. To use your analogy: itís asking a LEO to shoot someone in the line of duty every day, and telling them itís just part of their job. Itís an astonishing lack of compassion.

@Abe has ďFirst Do No Harm.Ē @MoseyingAlong has a vocation that stretches back as far as humans. I have ďHonor, Respect, Devotion to Duty.Ē Iím not exactly certain what you have, beyond stories that donít even involve your own suffering.

Thank you for an excellent response. 

I was very young when I decided to be a physician. At that time I knew there would be difficult times, people would die in my presence not being able to safe them etc. I carry my own backpack, full of patients I lost, full of stories that will break your hart. But that's how it is, and I carry that backpack without a single complaint.

But stating we should have been anticipating years of hell and basically saying it's our own fault for not foreseeing.... It just blows my mind...

Thank you for articulating this. And on top of it all, what's the point of espousing that point of view at all. The people who are saying it aren't hospital workers on the front lines...they aren't dealing with it. They're Monday morning quarterbacks of the worst kind - telling others going through trauma how they should feel about it. We all have our stuff right now, but medical workers are at the top of the pile of crappy stuff. Let's please leave them some love and not comment on how they should have mentally been prepared for this somehow.

afox

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 349
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #382 on: April 02, 2020, 08:46:09 AM »
^ agreed.

i'm a senior engineer in my 15 person office. i lead the day to day office management and most engineers report to me. i am worried that i will be outworked by the younger engineers because they're single/young and don't have kids. i normally stick to 40 hour weeks, though for the past half year, am around 60 hour weeks.

the shit will hit the fan soon for our industry and the day of reckoning will come. while under almost all of my previous theorized circumstances i think i would've been safe, this disruption to the economy is something completely different.

You're not alone, this is happening everywhere. My wife's company has told the workforce that they won't be able to keep everyone due to coronavirus. Since that announcement, employees are now literally fighting over themselves trying to take on as much work as possible. The young and single are working 60-80 hours a week in an effort to stand out as "valued" employees as @lutorm would put it. We have a toddler at home and are both tele-working full time so there's no way we can compete. I think the best case scenario is one of us gets fired and gets unemployment so that the other can remain competitive by working 1 and a half jobs or 2 jobs for the same amount of money.


JGS1980

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 429
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #383 on: April 02, 2020, 09:55:29 AM »
"Translating that to the US, we are looking at maybe 40-50k deaths.  Still terrible but way less than what would be a catastrophic event."
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I hope you and the Imperial Study are right, Millionaire

*USA has 1000 total deaths as of today (75 deaths per day at this time), and assuming EVERYONE is 100% serious about social distancing beginning today, we will have about 15 days of additional exponential positive infection tests [the infections themselves have mostly already occurred, they just haven't been diagnosed or counted], with corresponding 15 days of additional exponential deaths. There will be a 6-9 day delay between diagnosis and death for the unlucky. This also assumes we don't overwhelm the medical system. Lots of assumptions here, I know. All these assumptions are conservative.

So infections are at 75K in USA today, will double 5 times before they decrease their rate of growth, and hopefully turn the corner after that. At exponential peak, we will have 2,400,000 infected.

This leads to 75 deaths per day doubling 5 times, or 4650 new deaths by end of April 10th, total of 5650 deaths by Good Friday. Add the 6-9 day delay from diagnosis till death and we will have 20050 deaths total in 3 weeks. Reverse it for an additional 20050 assuming no new infections from then on, and we will have 40100 deaths in 6 weeks.

I am not at all certain about my numbers above, please check my math.
The tighter the control of spread FROM TODAY ON, the closer the results will be to the math. The looser the control of spread, and that number will only be higher.

This is so awful. It turns out my prediction (from just 7 days ago!!!) was woefully optimistic. Today, 8 days from Good Friday, the USA is already at 5150 deaths!
« Last Edit: April 02, 2020, 12:21:49 PM by JGS1980 »

mm1970

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8290
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #384 on: April 02, 2020, 10:12:05 AM »
Why is isolation such a burden for people.

Isolation in a tin roof shanty with no sanitary facilities - okay!

Isolation in a dry, heated/cooled western home with electricity and running water likely with TV and internet? What IS the problem?

We've really enjoyed time at home despite the worries about this virus. Its been a staycation. Games, TV, music, books, good food, and chores. Also - hobbies.

For us it's the compounding problem of being required to work from home while raising a toddler in a confined space with no day care or external support. 
That is crushing, for us.  Our daughter doesn't understand why she can't see her friend across the yard, or play at daycare or use the playground (now encased in 'Police Tape'), her world has been confined to a few rooms and walks around the block.

At the same time we both must work, but with many of the necessary tools (physical and virtual) less available to us.  Wife spends 4-5 hours in virtual meetings each day but document sharing is incredibly problematic... she can't just scan, print and share with everyone.  Lots of the people she's meeting with lack strong internet connections and/or technical saavy.  Every 'meeting' begins with several minutes of group tech-support and inevitably at least one or two people are listening on cellphones, unable to fully participate.  Accessing the secure server isn't an option, so files have to made through special requisitions made to the poor IT guys that are still in the building.... which is a lot like asking someone else to locate an item in your home...

I'm furloughed but still expected/requires to perform many of my duties, particularly to my students.  That's particularly frustrating knowing I have an obligation to do quality work but will not ever be compensated for the time I spend now.

Then there;'s the very heavy emotional toll, which neither of us really expected.  We have elderly parents who we can't see, and who can't see their grandchildren.  Spouse has a frail grandfather who very could pass away before we're allowed to visit.  I have three family members working on the front lines of COVID and I know their exposure risk is sky-high.  And then there's all the other close friends we can't physically be there for; my friend recovering from a divorce, my BIL who's struggling with a colicky infant, etc.  Video chat is good, but it's hard when you know there's no way you can actually be there in person.

In short - we've never had so much on our plate for so little compensation or support.
+2

For us, it's going okay so far.  First, my husband is an introvert. Second, I am a *slight* introvert, but maybe more of one than I thought. This forum, my family, facebook, and texting my friends is working in the meantime.  But I normally get all my need for people at the gym...I don't have that right now.

We are both expected to be working full time (though our employers are pretty understanding), from home, in a 2BR, 1 BA house.  Yesterday, "distance learning" started, so we have 3 makeshift desks and a kitchen table.  Do you think the 7 yo is going to be able to do his school work alone?  No.

Other people who are extroverts have it WAY worse.  And there are a large % of kids at our son's junior high that don't have internet anymore (cannot afford it), don't have an iPad (they left it at school and it's impossible to get through to people to get a replacement).  How are THEY going to do their distance learning?

It's not been a staycation for us.  Even "spring break", which was essentially 2 weeks long - we both had to WORK. Other people are losing their jobs - that's worse, but it doesn't mean that this doesn't suck.

dandarc

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4022
  • Age: 37
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #385 on: April 02, 2020, 11:38:00 AM »
This is so awful. It turns out my prediction (from just 7 days ago!!!) was woefully optimistic. Today, 8 days, from Good Friday, the USA is already at 5150 deaths!

Crisis of leadership means efforts are half-assed at best, and were definitely late. But still this is much better than the "no changes at all" alternative.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1919
  • Location: Noo Zilind
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #386 on: April 02, 2020, 11:48:50 AM »
"Translating that to the US, we are looking at maybe 40-50k deaths.  Still terrible but way less than what would be a catastrophic event."
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I hope you and the Imperial Study are right, Millionaire

*USA has 1000 total deaths as of today (75 deaths per day at this time), and assuming EVERYONE is 100% serious about social distancing beginning today, we will have about 15 days of additional exponential positive infection tests [the infections themselves have mostly already occurred, they just haven't been diagnosed or counted], with corresponding 15 days of additional exponential deaths. There will be a 6-9 day delay between diagnosis and death for the unlucky. This also assumes we don't overwhelm the medical system. Lots of assumptions here, I know. All these assumptions are conservative.

So infections are at 75K in USA today, will double 5 times before they decrease their rate of growth, and hopefully turn the corner after that. At exponential peak, we will have 2,400,000 infected.

This leads to 75 deaths per day doubling 5 times, or 4650 new deaths by end of April 10th, total of 5650 deaths by Good Friday. Add the 6-9 day delay from diagnosis till death and we will have 20050 deaths total in 3 weeks. Reverse it for an additional 20050 assuming no new infections from then on, and we will have 40100 deaths in 6 weeks.

I am not at all certain about my numbers above, please check my math.
The tighter the control of spread FROM TODAY ON, the closer the results will be to the math. The looser the control of spread, and that number will only be higher.

This is so awful. It turns out my prediction (from just 7 days ago!!!) was woefully optimistic. Today, 8 days, from Good Friday, the USA is already at 5150 deaths!

Yeah. I don't think the mathematicians on the board understand the dynamics of pandemics. Each infected person infects 2/3 more. Your daily cases are still increasing. Meanwhile, even if the daily cases were static, the death rate would be increasing at an uneen rate because A) it takes people a long time to die ie 4 weeks on a ventilator so many infected a month ago haven't come through the numbers yet and B) the death rate increases as the health care breaks down (lack of resources, staff numbers dropping due to infection, stress and panic). I wouldn't underestimate an increase in the death rate from the influences of stress and poor diet in the near future also. As you get towards a poorer outcome for covid patients in hospitals, some will opt to keep them home so they can die with family. And so even more people will be infected. You're also WAAAAAAY off assuming that everyone will be serious about social distancing. Maybe 80% of people will see the need and do an 80% job of social distancing. The rest will do whatever they like, some of which will be due to ignorance.

Abe

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1648
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #387 on: April 02, 2020, 01:49:25 PM »
Of course people know bad things are coming.

Over the course of a 15 year career, Iíve responded to six hurricanes, and one earthquake. Haiti, Katrina, Maria, Michael, Florence, Dorian. Each response left me with something that will never leave my brain. Haiti above all. The saving grace is that Iíve been able to spread those moments out across 15 years, with gaps in between.

Youíre asking medical workers to live disaster response day, after day, after day, for an untold amount of time. To use your analogy: itís asking a LEO to shoot someone in the line of duty every day, and telling them itís just part of their job. Itís an astonishing lack of compassion.

@Abe has ďFirst Do No Harm.Ē @MoseyingAlong has a vocation that stretches back as far as humans. I have ďHonor, Respect, Devotion to Duty.Ē Iím not exactly certain what you have, beyond stories that donít even involve your own suffering.

Thank you for an excellent response. 

I was very young when I decided to be a physician. At that time I knew there would be difficult times, people would die in my presence not being able to safe them etc. I carry my own backpack, full of patients I lost, full of stories that will break your hart. But that's how it is, and I carry that backpack without a single complaint.

But stating we should have been anticipating years of hell and basically saying it's our own fault for not foreseeing.... It just blows my mind...

Thank you for articulating this. And on top of it all, what's the point of espousing that point of view at all. The people who are saying it aren't hospital workers on the front lines...they aren't dealing with it. They're Monday morning quarterbacks of the worst kind - telling others going through trauma how they should feel about it. We all have our stuff right now, but medical workers are at the top of the pile of crappy stuff. Let's please leave them some love and not comment on how they should have mentally been prepared for this somehow.

I appreciate you all backing us up on this. So far, we're doing alright (except my wife lost her job) but my cousins' family is really under stress since they're in NYC. New York Presbyterian is expecting employees to show up even if they are sick with COVID. The whole lack of macro-scale management is just infuriating. No transfer outs of stable patients to make room for unstable patients. No stockpiling of PPE despite 3 month warning. No isolation orders until the number started going up. Honestly none of the current politicians (Trump, Cuomo, De Blasio) should win re-election due to their piss-poor management of this epidemic. That's more infuriating. Going to work is fine. It's the idiots running the show who make me mad. Luckily here in California the management has been much better, people are staying home and we should weather the storm relatively well.

American GenX

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 479
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #388 on: April 02, 2020, 03:39:58 PM »

The news seems to keep getting worse.  I'm hearing more about young people in their 30's, no underlying health conditions, looking like models of fitness, and dying from COVID-19.

Northern gal

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 316
  • Location: Australia
  • Life at the beach shack
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #389 on: April 02, 2020, 04:24:27 PM »
I think many are mistaking the choice as between flattening the curve  and saving the economy.

I don't see the economy recovering UNTIL people stop being scared of ending up in hospital which will likely be based on reports of the state of their local hospitals' capacity, shortages of PPE, machines, staff etc  and local infection/death rates.


Here is a reasonable thought experiment ( for USA):
Assume that social distancing rules remains spotty with thousands of cars driving between cities and communities every day so the virus eventually spreads to every community in the USA.
In the next 6 weeks,  hospitals across the nation run at or beyond capacity for months after with no elective surgery - even in small towns.

Further assume that we are told by White House  that 'people die, deal with it and go stimulate the economy'.

If Joe Public believes that his local hospital is a death trap and that there is a serious risk of ending up there if he does go out to to the restaurant, will he do so anyway?
Will that worry cause him to not buy that new sofa, car etc and instead save some money just in case?


In normal times, the state of the US economy has always been driven by consumer confidence.
Why should now be any different?

This is pretty much what happened in parts of Australiaand I believe the US West Coast. Way before the government decided to close things, anyone who could self isolated of their own volition.

The problem is you need 90-80 of the population to self isolate for it to stop the spread. So without an officiallockdown you end up with a bad economy and a pandemic.

Northern gal

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 316
  • Location: Australia
  • Life at the beach shack
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #390 on: April 02, 2020, 04:28:08 PM »
Everyone keeps talking about ventilators as some sort of cure all.  I have news for you all...it takes a TEAM of medical professionals to take care of ventilated patients.  Respiratory therapists, nurses, nursing assistants and MDs to oversee the care of these ventilated patients.  The typical ratio for ventilated patients to nurses is 2:1.  Given these are atypical times, 3:1 and possibly even higher ratios could be a possibility I don't doubt.  So if you need 20,000 ventilators, they'd better come with 10,000 trained nurses who know how to care for vented patients. 
Source: ICU RN

It also takes a dialysis machine and ECMO apparatus and teams to handle those.

And remember how the whistleblower Chinese doctor who tried to warn the world died from Covid? He was 34 and healthy.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Bn3nV4viapg

Cassie

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6655
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #391 on: April 02, 2020, 06:20:11 PM »
Just read that a 28 year old was advocating on social media for leaving everything open and taking your chances and 3 days later is dead.

waltworks

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4265
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #392 on: April 02, 2020, 06:47:22 PM »
The reason you're hearing about young people dying is because it's very rare.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

It's a smidge worse than an average year influenza for your average avocado-toast Millennial.

That doesn't mean those young folks can't infect and kill older folks. But when they blow off the risk to themselves, they're basically correct.

-W

afox

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 349
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #393 on: April 02, 2020, 07:25:46 PM »

It's a smidge worse than an average year influenza for your average avocado-toast Millennial.


Are you sure about that? I cant find the number easily but I thought I saw somewhere that COVID was many times more deadly than influenza for all age groups.

waltworks

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4265
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #394 on: April 02, 2020, 07:32:19 PM »

It's a smidge worse than an average year influenza for your average avocado-toast Millennial.


Are you sure about that? I cant find the number easily but I thought I saw somewhere that COVID was many times more deadly than influenza for all age groups.

Read the link. Usual caveats - it's an evolving situation, we don't have great testing, this is just the folks that have interacted with the medical system.

But it's 0.2%. Average influenza is 0.1%. That's definitely worse! But still not a huge risk if you're 22.

-W

lutorm

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 202
  • Location: A large island in the middle of the Pacific Ocean
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #395 on: April 02, 2020, 07:40:25 PM »
I disagree with your premise @lutorm.
For many, many people, they work for businesses that are currently furloughing and laying off workers as they are forced to close and productivity & revenue has already ground to a crawl.  If someone comes up to management and says ďI need greater flexibilityĒ that person is very likely to be on the next list of layoffs.  From a practical standpoint, what many businesses need is survive is to quickly slash their payroll and to retain only the bare minimum which might allow them to putter along until this opens back up in a few months.
Well, sure, but if your business is hibernating you're not likely to have a problem needing to work 60h weeks which was the premise of the comment.

I can only speak from personal experience and my employer has shown unexpected flexibility. But we are "essential business", so we're not shutting down either. It obviously depends on how hard you are to replace, though.

lutorm

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 202
  • Location: A large island in the middle of the Pacific Ocean
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #396 on: April 02, 2020, 07:48:16 PM »

And remember how the whistleblower Chinese doctor who tried to warn the world died from Covid? He was 34 and healthy.
I read an article in the NYT by a molecular biologist pointing out that the viral dose you get when infected likely affects how sick you get (it does with other viral diseases, but there obviously aren't any data for COVID). They speculated that the reason it appears we seem to hear about significant fatalities among young and otherwise healthy medical personnel is that they are likely to receive a very large dose if they don't have proper PPE or weren't wearing any while working on infectious patients. It'll be harder for the body to fight that off compared to if you touch a surface that someone touched yesterday and pick up a minimal dose.

I thought this article was interesting because, as they pointed out, infection is being talked about as an all or nothing kind of thing, but anything we can do to at least lower the amount of viruses that people are likely to pick up (like wearing improvised masks), while it may not prevent people from getting infected, can still mean that the outcome is less severe, so we should adopt an "every little thing helps" sort of principle.

afox

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 349
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #397 on: April 02, 2020, 09:33:20 PM »

It's a smidge worse than an average year influenza for your average avocado-toast Millennial.


Are you sure about that? I cant find the number easily but I thought I saw somewhere that COVID was many times more deadly than influenza for all age groups.

Read the link. Usual caveats - it's an evolving situation, we don't have great testing, this is just the folks that have interacted with the medical system.

But it's 0.2%. Average influenza is 0.1%. That's definitely worse! But still not a huge risk if you're 22.

-W

i read the link, it didnt have mortality for influenza.

It looks like you made an honest mistake, it looks like you're comparing the average mortality rate for all ages of influenza to the youngest age groups mortality rate for covid. 

this article compares the mortality rate for the two, the age groups dont align perfectly but generally the mortality rates for covid appear to be 10-25 times higher than they are for influenza for younger people:
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-compared-seasonal-flu-in-the-us-death-rates-2020-3

you're right that its an evolving situation and we dont have all the data yet but every indication is that covid is much much more deadly than influenza for all age groups.

YttriumNitrate

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1047
  • Location: Northwest Indiana
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #398 on: April 02, 2020, 09:52:35 PM »
But it's 0.2%. Average influenza is 0.1%. That's definitely worse! But still not a huge risk if you're 22. -W


The CDC has information on these sort of things, for the 18-49 year year old bracket here's the past fatality rate for the flu:

2017-2018 =0.019%
2016-2017 =0.014%
2015-2016 =0.018%
2014-2015 =0.011%
2013-2014 =0.026%
2012-2013 =0.018%
2011-2012 =0.021%
2010-2011 =0.070%

So, a 0.2% rate for that group would be about 3x a bad flu year, and 10x a good flu year.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm
Divided Deaths by Symptomatic Illnesses for these numbers.

waltworks

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4265
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #399 on: April 02, 2020, 10:20:16 PM »
Those are estimated illnesses, YttriumNitrate. That's not really comparable, as the C19 numbers are only including patients who are sick enough to seek out medical services mostly (though in a few places there's enough testing that there are more people in the pool than just sick folks).

That said, the burden (an estimated 41,000,000 illnesses and 60,000 deaths) is .13%. You moved the decimal place on your numbers for some reason.

Again, this is not trying in any way to minimize the problem - but if you're young, you do not need to worry too much about your own death from C19. Hearing about someone young dying on the news is a good sign (for you, if you're young) - it's rare and hence newsworthy.

-W